British Pound: Downside risks from softer UK data – HSBC

HSBC argues that GBP/USD faces renewed downside as UK disinflation and a softer labour market reduce urgency for further Bank of England tightening, even though markets still price hikes out to 2027. The bank highlights geopolitical risks via higher Oil and gas prices and domestic policy uncertainty, which could undermine recent Pound resilience despite support from higher UK yields.

Pound pressured by data and geopolitics

"With headline CPI down to 2.6% y-o-y, the case for near-term Bank of England (BoE) hikes looks less urgent, even though markets still price tightening through April 2027."

"Yet, with a softer labour market, HSBC Economics sees a high bar for the BoE to turn decisively more hawkish."

"GBP has nonetheless held up over the last month supported by higher yields."

"The key risk remains geopolitics."

"With recent strength in the rear-view mirror, this mix leaves GBP vulnerable, especially if energy risks persist and policy credibility wobbles."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)