Japanese Yen: Intervention risks rise with Fed hawkishness – MUFG

MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes that USD/JPY has broken above its July 2024 high as the US Dollar strengthens on a hawkish Federal Reserve backdrop. Japanese officials, including Finance Minister Katayama and Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara, reiterate readiness to act in FX markets, but past limited success of record intervention suggests Japan may tolerate gradual Yen weakness in the near term.

Yen weakness and policy response

"USD/JPY has extended its upward trend after breaking above the high from July 2024 at 161.95."

"As we saw back in late April/early May, record intervention from Japan only briefly strengthened the yen but failed to reverse the weakening trend for long."

"As a result, Japan may be more tolerant of yen weakness in the near-term as long as the pace remains gradual."

"At the same time, recent yen weakness has been mainly focused against the US dollar while other yen crosses have remained relatively stable."

"The heightened risk of intervention has been helping to at least slow the pace of yen weakness."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)