Australian Dollar: Neutral outlook inside tight range against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that AUD/USD extended its recent gains on Tuesday, helped by improved risk appetite, but they still characterise the near-term move as only a tentative recovery. Intraday they look for the Australian Dollar (AUD) to edge higher within a narrow band, while over the coming 1–3 weeks they now hold a neutral stance, expecting sideways trade between nearby support and resistance.

Australian Dollar seen consolidating

"24-HOUR VIEW: After AUD closed 0.30% higher at 0.6972 yesterday, we highlighted the following yesterday: “The tentative increase in upward momentum is not sufficient to signal a sustained advance. Today, AUD is likely to edge higher, but it is likely to stay within a 0.6945/0.6985 range. In other words, AUD is unlikely to break clearly above 0.6985.” The subsequent price movements did not quite unfold as expected. AUD edged up to 0.6990 before settling at 0.6984 (+0.18%). The increase in upward momentum remains tentative. Today, we expect AUD to edge higher within a 0.6965/0.6995 range. "

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Following our negative AUD view from the middle of last month (see annotations in the chart below), we highlighted last Friday (02 Oct, spot at 0.6930) that “any further decline in AUD may fall short of the major support at 0.6866.” Yesterday (06 Oct, spot at 0.6970), we highlighted that “downward momentum is starting to slow, and a break above 0.6985 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that 0.6866 is out of reach.” AUD then rose and broke above 0.6985 with a high of 0.6990. We are neutral on AUD now, and expect it to trade between 0.6935 and 0.7020."

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