China: Two Sessions set 2026 growth path – TD Securities

TD Securities analysts expect Premier Li to unveil a 4.5–5.0% GDP target range for 2026 at the Two Sessions, alongside a broad budget deficit near 9% of GDP. Policymakers are seen prioritizing domestic demand, with continued targeted consumer stimulus.

Domestic demand at policy forefront

"Premier Li is likely to announce a 4.5-5.0% GDP target range for 2026 and a broad budget deficit equivalent to 9% of GDP, retaining an accommodative fiscal stance."

"In 2026, we expect policymakers to formulate and implement policies with a focus on boosting domestic demand."

"Boosting domestic demand would encompass both consumption-led and investment-focused policies, especially given the slump in Fixed-Asset Investment (FAI) in the H2'25."

"Policymakers see the need to diversify its economic engine towards consumption, albeit at a gradual pace."

"We expect the targeted consumer stimulus, consumer trade-in program, to continue in 2026."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)