War With Iran May Spark Federal Reserve Intervention, Arthur Hayes Says

Iran and the Middle East are on fire again. US and Israeli forces launched a series of airstrikes on Iran over the weekend, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — a development that sent shockwaves through global markets and sparked fresh debate about what comes next for the US economy. And amid all the chaos, one prominent voice in the crypto world is already drawing a straight line from the bombing runs to Bitcoin prices.

Arthur Hayes Makes His Case

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX, published a blog post this week arguing that US military action in the Middle East has a historical pattern — and that pattern tends to be good for crypto.

His reasoning goes back decades. According to Hayes, every sitting US president since 1985 has sent forces into the Middle East. Each time, the Federal Reserve followed by cutting interest rates or pumping more money into the financial system to help cover the costs.

The Gulf War in 1990. The aftermath of the September 11 attacks in 2001. The troop surge in Afghanistan in 2009. Each episode, Hayes argues, came with a looser money supply.

His conclusion: if US President Donald Trump keeps spending heavily on what Hayes calls “Iranian nation-building,” the Fed may eventually feel pressure to ease up on its current tight monetary stance. That, in turn, could send money flowing into riskier assets — including Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Iran-US War: Markets Stay Calm For Now

So far, the markets aren’t panicking. Stock futures dipped only slightly when trading opened Monday. Oil prices spiked at first, then pulled back, erasing nearly half the early gains. The S&P 500 shed less than 1%. Financial newsletter The Kobeissi Letter was blunt about it — this was no doomsday open.

To everyone calling for World War 3:

This is NOT a futures open that is anywhere near WW3.

In fact, oil prices have already erased nearly half of their opening gap higher and the S&P 500 is down less than 1%.

Gold is up a mere 2% and Bitcoin is now positive on the day.

Don’t…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 1, 2026

Crypto social media told a different story in tone, if not in substance. Reports say mentions of “World War 3” spiked across platforms over the weekend, according to data from analytics firm Santiment.

But those numbers were still well below the levels recorded last June, when a prior round of Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites led to nearly two weeks of direct conflict between the two countries.

Hayes himself is urging caution for now. He admits there’s no way to know how long Trump will stay committed to a costly military campaign in Iran, or how much market pain the administration can stomach before pulling back.

His advice to crypto investors is to wait — specifically for a concrete Fed rate cut or money-printing signal before making big moves.

“The time to back up the truck and buy Bitcoin,” he wrote, is right after the Fed acts, not before.

Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView