Conferencia de resultados del 3T de 2026 de Ferroglobe (GSM): plan de costos de 100 millones de dólares

Puntos clave

• Los ingresos del tercer trimestre de 2026 cayeron un 2% intertrimestral hasta los 370 millones de dólares, ya que los envíos totales cayeron un 3% hasta las 183.000 toneladas. Los ingresos aumentaron un 19% en comparación con el T3 de 2025.
• El EBITDA ajustado fue negativo en 2 millones de dólares, frente al saldo positivo de 13 millones de dólares del T2 de 2026. La dirección atribuyó cerca de 19 millones de dólares de impacto negativo al aumento de los costes de la energía e estimó que el EBITDA ajustado habría sido de aproximadamente 16 millones de dólares excluyendo dicho impacto.
• Ferroglobe generó 26 millones de dólares en flujo de caja operativo y 6 millones de dólares en flujo de caja libre, impulsada por una liberación de capital de trabajo de 32 millones de dólares.
• La dirección puso en marcha un programa de reducción de costes con el que prevé incrementar el EBITDA anual en aproximadamente 100 millones de dólares, más o menos un 15%, una vez implementado por completo. El plan incluye el cierre de cinco plantas, el aumento de la utilización de la capacidad desde menos del 60% hasta cerca del 80% y una reducción de la plantilla de aproximadamente el 20%.
• La empresa comenzó los envíos comerciales de ferromolibdeno durante el trimestre y espera realizar envíos adicionales en el T4, junto con los primeros envíos comerciales de ferrovanadio y ferrocromo.
• La dirección prevé que el T4 siga siendo complicado debido a los costes de la energía y a la debilidad del mercado europeo del ferrosilicio, aunque las medidas comerciales y el crecimiento proyectado de la demanda de acero para 2027 podrían respaldar sus mercados principales.

Datos financieros clave

Rendimiento operativo y del negocio

Silicio metálico

Los ingresos fueron de 102 millones de dólares. Los volúmenes disminuyeron un 6% frente al trimestre anterior hasta las 38.000 toneladas, debido principalmente a la estacionalidad, pero se situaron un 14% por encima del T3 de 2025. El precio medio de venta subió un 3% hasta aproximadamente 2.669 dólares por tonelada.

El EBITDA ajustado del segmento mejoró ligeramente a un saldo negativo de 2 millones de dólares desde el saldo negativo de 3 millones de dólares del T2. El coste por tonelada aumentó un 3% debido al incremento de los precios de la energía y de los electrodos en Norteamérica.

Los precios del índice de silicio metálico aumentaron un 10% en EE. UU. y un 6% en Europa durante el trimestre. La dirección señaló que el interés de los clientes fue en aumento a medida que la empresa avanzaba en sus negociaciones contractuales para 2027.

Aleaciones a base de silicio

Los ingresos cayeron a 117 millones de dólares, ya que los volúmenes bajaron un 6% respecto al trimestre anterior hasta las 59.000 toneladas. Los precios realizados se mantuvieron prácticamente estables en 1.973 dólares por tonelada.

El EBITDA ajustado se redujo a un saldo negativo de 2 millones de dólares, frente al saldo positivo de 15 millones de dólares del T2, que incluía un beneficio de 5 millones de dólares por un litigio en España. El aumento de los costes energéticos y la menor absorción de costes fijos en Europa explicaron la mayor parte del descenso.

La dirección indicó que la empresa evitó volúmenes adicionales en Europa a precios no rentables. El exceso de inventario y las elevadas importaciones siguieron ejerciendo presión sobre el mercado, con un descenso del índice europeo de ferrosilicio del 16% en lo que va de año.

Aleaciones a base de manganeso

Los ingresos aumentaron a 114 millones de dólares. Los volúmenes crecieron un 1% respecto al trimestre anterior hasta las 86.000 toneladas, mientras que el precio medio de venta mejoró un 5% hasta los 1.330 dólares por tonelada.

El EBITDA ajustado fue de 11 millones de dólares, frente a los 13 millones del T2. La energía, principalmente en España, representó el 85% del incremento del coste por tonelada.

Materiales críticos y protección comercial

Ferroglobe comenzó los envíos comerciales de ferromolibdeno antes de su objetivo inicial de fin de año. Asimismo, planeó la validación a escala industrial para el ferrovanadio, el ferrocromo de bajo carbono y el ferroboro antes de definir planes de comercialización más amplios.

La empresa prevé presentar en noviembre su propuesta definitiva de materiales críticos al Gobierno de EE. UU., y se espera que las negociaciones comiencen a principios de 2027 y concluyan antes de que finalice el primer trimestre.

En Europa, la Comisión Europea inició el 1 de septiembre una revisión intermedia antidumping sobre las importaciones de silicio metálico chino y ordenó el registro de las importaciones el 23 de octubre. La dirección señaló que el registro podría desincentivar el acaparamiento y permitir la aplicación de medidas con carácter retroactivo. En EE. UU., el índice de silicio metálico aumentó un 10% tras la resolución definitiva en el caso relativo a Australia y Noruega.

Perspectivas de la dirección

• La dirección prevé que el programa de reducción de costes aporte aproximadamente 100 millones de dólares adicionales al EBITDA anual, más o menos un 15%, una vez implementado por completo.
• La reestructuración tiene como objetivo alcanzar una utilización de la capacidad de aproximadamente el 80%, en comparación con el menos del 60% actual, y una reducción de la plantilla de alrededor del 20% en funciones corporativas y operativas.
• La empresa tiene como objetivo reducir el capital de trabajo entre 30 y 40 millones de dólares y recortar los futuros gastos de capital. Se prevé que los costes de implementación asciendan a un total de 40 a 60 millones de dólares, netos de la reducción de capital de trabajo prevista, a lo largo de un período de 18 meses.
• La dirección no prevé cambios significativos en el capital de trabajo durante el T4 y espera que los gastos de capital se reduzcan considerablemente con respecto al T3.
• Se espera que el T4 siga siendo complicado debido a los costes energéticos y a la debilidad del mercado europeo del ferrosilicio.
• Ferroglobe está gestionando la obtención de una licencia de la OFAC, necesaria para finalizar los acuerdos relacionados con la reactivación de sus operaciones en Venezuela. La dirección afirmó que la licencia podría llegar pronto, pero la garantía de un suministro eléctrico fiable sigue siendo un requisito clave.

Riesgos y aspectos a vigilar

• Los elevados costes energéticos, especialmente en España, redujeron el EBITDA ajustado del T3 en casi 19 millones de dólares y se prevé que sigan siendo un reto en el T4.
• Los precios del ferrosilicio en Europa continúan bajo presión debido al exceso de inventario y a las elevadas importaciones.
• La reestructuración requiere consultas con los representantes de los trabajadores cuando proceda y conlleva unos costes de implementación previstos de entre 40 y 60 millones de dólares, netos de las reducciones fijadas para el capital de trabajo.
• La reactivación de las operaciones en Venezuela depende de la obtención de una licencia de la OFAC y de garantizar un suministro eléctrico fiable.
• Los volúmenes comerciales de los materiales críticos más recientes se mantienen inciertos a la espera de la validación de la producción a escala industrial.
• Aún no se ha tomado una decisión sobre las posibles medidas antidumping europeas con carácter retroactivo.

Puntos destacados de la sesión de preguntas y respuestas con analistas

La dirección afirmó que el programa previsto de cierre de cinco plantas está diseñado para consolidar la producción en los centros más competitivos y elevar el uso de la capacidad hacia el 80%. Ferroglobe ha anunciado la suspensión de operaciones en sus plantas de Emalahleni y Polokwane en Sudáfrica, pero no ha identificado las demás instalaciones afectadas porque aún se requieren consultas con los colectivos interesados.

En cuanto a Venezuela, la dirección indicó que se han iniciado conversaciones para respaldar una reactivación acelerada. La fiabilidad del suministro eléctrico es el principal problema operativo, mientras que la licencia de la OFAC es necesaria antes de poder formalizar cualquier acuerdo.

En el ámbito de los materiales críticos, Ferroglobe vuelve a producir ferromolibdeno y está realizando o planificando pruebas de producción de ferrovanadio, ferrocromo de bajo carbono y ferroboro. La dirección señaló que era demasiado pronto para ofrecer previsiones de volumen para el T4 o para 2027 antes de que concluya la validación a escala industrial.

Respecto a las acciones comerciales en Europa, la dirección explicó que el registro de las importaciones de silicio metálico procedente de China podría evitar el acaparamiento previo a la resolución y abrir la opción de imponer aranceles con carácter retroactivo.

Transcripción completa de la conferencia de resultados

Transcripción completa de la conferencia de resultados

Comentarios de la dirección

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Ferroglobe's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call may be recorded.

I would now like to turn the call over to Alex Rotonen, Ferroglobe's Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin.

Alex Rotonen

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Ferroglobe's third quarter 2026 conference call. Joining me today are Marco Levi, our Chief Executive Officer; and Beatriz Garcia-Cos, our Chief Financial Officer.

Before we get started with some prepared remarks, I'm going to read a brief statement. Please turn to Slide 2 at this time. Statements made by management during this conference call that are forward-looking are based on current expectations. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those forward-looking statements can be found in Ferroglobe's most recent SEC filings and the exhibits to those filings, which are available at ferroglobe.com.

In addition, this discussion includes references to EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted gross debt, adjusted net debt and adjusted diluted earnings per share, among other non-IFRS measures. Reconciliations of non-IFRS measures may be found in our most recent SEC filings.

We'll be participating in the Stephens Annual Investment Conference in Nashville on November 17. We hope to see you there.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Marco.

Marco Levi

Thank you, Alex, and thank you all for joining us today. We appreciate your continued interest in Ferroglobe.

Our third quarter results continued to reflect challenges in our silicon metal and silicon-based alloy segments as a result of predatory import prices and external factors affecting costs. Despite these adverse conditions, we generated positive free cash flow.

Total shipments declined 3% quarter-over-quarter to 183,000 tons as silicon metal and silicon-based alloys volumes declined 6%, partially offset by a 1% increase in manganese-based alloys. As a result, revenue declined 2% from the second quarter to $370 million.

Adjusted EBITDA was negative $2 million compared with positive $13 million in the second quarter. The decline was due to extraordinary energy costs, mainly in Spain, associated with the Middle East conflict and to a lesser degree, regulatory pricing in the ferrosilicon segment. Excluding the $18.5 million impact from high energy prices, the adjusted EBITDA would have been approximately $16 million in the third quarter. Beatriz will provide more detailed comments in her section.

Next slide, please. Since the last call, we have made tangible progress on the following strategic priorities: lowering and rightsizing our cost structure, expanding our critical materials platform, pursuing the restart of Venezuela, and strengthening our core business through trade protection.

Let me start with rightsizing our footprint and cost structure. Last month, we initiated an aggressive cost reduction program to increase our capacity utilization, enhance our operating efficiency and strengthen our competitive position. Once fully implemented, we expect the cost reduction program to enhance our annual EBITDA by approximately $100 million, plus or minus 15%.

Our plans to tackle the difficult business environment and increase profitability include the following. First, we are consolidating our operations to our most cost competitive plants, enabled by our flexible footprint. Our goal is to boost capacity utilization to 80%, up from less than 60% today.

To accomplish this, we plan to close 5 plants around the globe with minimal impact on our sales volumes or our ability to expand into critical materials. We will work through these changes together with our employee representatives as required. Some of these operations might be switched to critical materials.

At the same time, we are restarting Selma to produce ferroalloys. As for the nonstrategic plans, we are exploring the best way to monetize them, whether through outright divestitures or alternative use as data centers.

Second, we plan to reduce our corporate overhead primarily through headcount reductions. Overall, we expect to reduce our corporate and operations workforce by approximately 20% once the process is complete, subject to consultation with employee representatives where required.

These are difficult decisions, but necessary steps to align our cost structure with the current market conditions and position the business for improved profitability. These actions will lower Ferroglobe's fixed cost per ton, target working capital reduction of $30 million, $40 million, and decrease future CapEx, creating more streamlined organization positioned to generate stronger cash flow and EBITDA.

We have already begun this process by announcing the mothballing of our South African plants in Emalahleni and Polokwane due to lack of demand. The upfront cost of implementing this transformation plan is expected to be in the range of $40 million to $60 million, net of targeted working capital reduction over an 18-month period.

Moving to critical materials. Our expansion is progressing ahead of schedule. During the third quarter, we began shipment of ferromolybdenum to commercial customers, well ahead of our original year-end target. This demonstrates our ability to produce critical ferroalloys in Monzon, Spain with minimal capital investment. We expect additional ferromolybdenum shipments in the fourth quarter as well as our first commercial shipments of other critical ferroalloys such as ferrovanadium and ferrochromium.

As part of the critical material expansion, we continue our discussion with the U.S. Department of War. These discussions to build the domestic supply of certain critical materials continue to progress on schedule. Our September 16 summary proposal included magnesium and manganese and 7 additional critical materials, and we expect to present our final proposal this month in November. The negotiations should begin in early 2027 and conclude before the end of the first quarter.

As for Venezuela, we continue to pursue the license from the Office of Foreign Assets Control, or OFAC, required to finalize any agreements. Concurrently, we have begun initial discussions in Venezuela to prepare for an expedited restart of our operations.

On our effort to protect the business, trade measures continue to gain momentum. On September 1, the European Commission initiated an interim antidumping review into imports of Chinese silicon metal and October 23, the Commission announced the registration of all Chinese silicon metal imports. This simply means that each import will be recorded and monitored in detail for future review.

This decision is important because it indicates how seriously the European Commission takes the matter and allows potential duties to be applied retroactively. The market has already responded with the European Silicon metal index rising 7% since the announcement of this review.

In the United States, the ITC's final determination in the silicon metal case against Australia and Norway was announced on August 3. Subsequently, the U.S. index rose 10% following the announcement.

Finally, Coreshell has made strong progress in the third quarter. They received a $50 million award from the U.S. Department of Energy to build the first U.S. gigafactory dedicated to 100% graphite-free silicon anode batteries. This award comes at a great moment in Coreshell's growth as they have now signed multiple military customers in the drone and autonomous vehicle space. Coreshell continues to work with multiple OEMs to further validate the silicon anode technology on a greater scale.

Next slide, please. I'll update on our segments, starting with silicon metal on Slide 5. We are seeing improvement in the silicon metal segment with index prices up 10% in U.S. and 6% in Europe in the third quarter, reflecting a positive response to trade actions on both sides of the Atlantic. Our realized prices improved 3% over the second quarter.

Our silicon metal volumes declined 6% to 38,000 tons with U.S. sales down 8% and new sales down 3%. The decline was driven mainly by seasonality with volumes up 14% over Q3 2025. Importantly, we are seeing increased customer interest, an encouraging sign as we continue our 2027 contract negotiations.

Next slide, please. Silicon-based alloy volumes remained significantly above last year's level, although they declined 6% in the third quarter compared to the second quarter to 59,000 tons. Index prices were down 2% in Europe and 1% in the U.S., while our realized prices were essentially flat.

Our European volumes declined substantially, reflecting our disciplined decision not to pursue incremental volumes at unprofitable prices. Excess inventory and elevated import volumes continue to weigh on price recovery, particularly in the European market where the ferrosilicon index is down 16% year-to-date. The main culprits are Malaysia, Bhutan, Azerbaijan, India and Angola. European Commission's annual review of the ferroalloy safeguards scheduled for later this month can potentially bring meaningful improvement to the alloys market in 2027.

Next slide, please. Manganese-based alloys remain our most consistent segment. Volumes remained strong, increasing 1% to 86,000 tons. While index prices were down approximately 1% in the quarter, our realized prices increased 5%. The market outlook remains positive, supported by firm pricing and healthy volumes.

Looking ahead, both the silicon-based alloys and manganese-based alloy segments are expected to benefit from improving steel demand. In its October short-range outlook, the World Steel Association forecast 2027 finished steel demand growth of 3% in Europe and 2% in North America. Manufacturing activity supports this view with September PMI reaching 52.9 in the Eurozone, a 52-month high, and 55.9 in the U.S. Aluminum production is expected to grow by 2% in the U.S. and 3% in Europe.

I would now like to turn the call over to Beatriz Garcia-Cos, our Chief Financial Officer, to review the financial results in more detail. Beatriz?

Beatriz García-Cos Muntañola

Thank you, Marco. Please turn to Slide 9 for a review of the third quarter income statement. Total third quarter sales declined 2% from the prior quarter to $370 million, driven by a 3% decline in total volumes. Lower volumes in silicon metal and silicon-based alloys were partially offset by higher realized prices in silicon metal and manganese-based alloys. Compared with the third quarter of 2025, sales increased 19%.

Adjusted EBITDA was negative $2 million compared with a positive $13 million in the prior quarter. As a reminder, second quarter adjusted EBITDA includes a $5 million benefit from litigation in Spain. Higher energy costs reduced adjusted EBITDA by nearly $19 million in the quarter. Excluding these items, the adjusted EBITDA would have been $16 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin was negative 0.6% compared with a positive 3.5% in the second quarter.

Next slide, please. Silicon metal revenue was $102 million in the third quarter, a 6% decline in volume, was partially offset by a 3% increase in average selling price to approximately $2,669 per ton, up from $2,592 per ton in the second quarter. Cost per ton increased by 3% due to higher energy and electrode prices in North America.

Adjusted EBITDA was negative $2 million, a slight improvement compared with negative $3 million in the prior quarter. Silicon-based alloys revenue declined to $117 million, driven by a 6% sequential decline in volumes to 59,000 tons. Realized prices were essentially flat at $1,973 per ton.

Adjusted EBITDA for the segment was negative $2 million, down from positive $15 million in the second quarter, which includes the $5 million litigation benefit in Spain. Volume and price declines explained approximately $2 million of the decline, with the remaining EBITDA decline reflecting higher energy costs and lower fixed cost absorption in Europe.

Next slide, please. Manganese-based alloys revenue increased to $114 million as volume increased 1% to 86,000 tons, and average selling price improved 5% to $1,330 per ton. Higher energy costs primarily in Spain were the main driver of increased cost per ton. Overall, energy accounts for 85% of the cost increase. Adjusted EBITDA was $11 million compared with $13 million in the prior quarter.

Next slide, please. For the third quarter, cash flow from operations was $26 million, driven by a $32 million release of working capital. This is well ahead of the approximately $50 million release we target for the second half of the year on our last call. We don't expect material changes in working capital in the fourth quarter.

For those less familiar, the PPA mark-to-market of $77 million is related to our energy contracts, which are excluded from adjusted EBITDA due to the volatility and noncash impact. CapEx was $20 million, up from $17 million in the second quarter due to the timing of the actual payments for our charcoal plant in Spain. We expect CapEx to decline significantly in the fourth quarter.

Free cash flow was positive $6 million compared with $20 million in the prior quarter.

Next slide, please. We paid our quarterly dividend of $0.015 per share on September 29. Our next dividend of $0.015 per share is scheduled for December 30, payable to shareholders on record as of December 22.

We ended the quarter with approximately $93 million in cash, unchanged from the second quarter. Adjusted gross debt was $135 million and net debt increased slightly to $42 million. We continue to maintain a solid balance sheet, which gives us the flexibility to execute the cost reduction program and support our critical materials expansion.

At this time, I'll turn the call back to Marco.

Marco Levi

Thank you, Beatriz. Before opening the call for Q&A, I'd like to share the key takeaways from today's presentation on Slide 15. While our third quarter earnings results are disappointing, we are taking decisive action to improve profitability. The cost reduction program will consolidate production at our most competitive plant, increase capacity utilization to approximately 80%, and streamline the organization. Once fully implemented, we expect to add $100 million to our annual EBITDA, plus or minus 15%.

While we expect the fourth quarter to remain challenging due to energy costs and weak ferrosilicon market in Europe, these actions are within our control and can deliver long-term benefits regardless of market conditions. At the same time, the fundamentals of our core markets are improving. Steel demand is forecast to grow next year, which supports our ferroalloy businesses.

Trade protection is working. Silicon metal index prices rose 10% in the U.S. and 6% in Europe in the third quarter. And the European investigation into Chinese silicon metal is now underway.

Our strategic direction is very clear: build a leading Western critical materials platform. We completed our first shipments in the third quarter and additional shipments are expected in the fourth quarter. We have demonstrated that our existing furnaces can produce these critical materials quickly and with minimal capital investment.

Our discussions on critical materials with the U.S. government continue to advance and Coreshell's $50 million Department of Energy award gives us further confidence in our investment in silicon battery technology.

Operator, we are ready for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We will now take our first question from the line of Nick Giles from B. Riley Securities.

Preguntas y respuestas

Henry Hearle

This is Henry Hearle on for Nick. I first wanted to ask, are the 5 plant closures view that European demand does not fully recover? Or do they more assume that Venezuela backfills those tons?

Marco Levi

Well, we -- as you know, we have quite a broad asset footprint, and we are looking at different combinations to increase our asset utilization at -- to 80% from an average of 60%. We forecast demand growing better at higher rate in U.S. in the next few years. And as a consequence, we are talking about restarting Venezuela and restarting Selma in the United States.

We have disclosed in my speech the decision on South African plants. We are not going to disclose anything else about the additional assets as we need to engage other stakeholders and employee representatives before disclosing our plan in a more [indiscernible].

Henry Hearle

Got it. Understood, Marco. And then also, at this time, are you able to provide any more details on the status of the Venezuela permit?

Marco Levi

Yes. We should get the license anytime soon. At the same time, we have started our discussions in Venezuela to restart the plant. The main topic is electricity supply and reliable electricity supply. As you know, we can easily ramp up and down our furnaces. We have this flexibility running electrical furnaces, but we need electricity reliability. The license is required to close any kind of negotiation.

Henry Hearle

Understood. And then looking at the critical materials business, how do you expect shipments to ramp from 3Q to 4Q? And how many other materials might be involved in those shipments?

Marco Levi

Yes. Well, in this quarter, we are producing again ferromolybdenum. We re-run productions of ferrovanadium and ferrochrome low carbon. We seem to be able also to run trials on ferroboron.

So for these 4 products, we need validation at industrial scale production, meaning we have produced ferromolybdenum industrially, but not the other 3 products that I mentioned. So it is rather premature to talk about volumes for the quarter and 2027. Our objective is to validate our production capabilities this quarter, and then we will plan for market introduction.

Henry Hearle

Got it. And then last one for me. It looks like that the EU could possibly make the antidumping duties on China retroactive. Could you provide any more color on that or what you're hearing?

Marco Levi

Yes. I mean we have put a lot of pressure because this has been a never-ending saga. I want to remind you that we asked for safeguards on silicon metal and the fact that safeguards were not applied to silicon metal has caused a disaster in terms of results of safeguards for ferrosilicon.

Now we have changed our approach. We are going for antidumping review against China. That interim review was officially started on September 1. And on October 23, EU had announced monitoring of imports. What it means is that the Union is monitoring the imports of silicon metal outside of China via all the 27 EU countries.

And monitoring the import has a couple of effects. One, you prevent stockpiling materials -- exported materials from China before the European Union decide on the new measures. And second, the registration basically allows the commission to eventually decide to apply measures retroactively. So this is a good result. But again, we are not where we want to be.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] There are no further questions at this time. I would like to hand back over to Marco Levi for closing remarks.

Marco Levi

Thank you, Sandra, and thank you all. In a nutshell, we are executing on what we can control, and we look forward to updating you on our progress during the next call. Thank you again for your participation, and have a great day.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.