Conferencia de resultados del T3 de 2026 de Celanese (CE): objetivo de flujo de caja libre de $700M-$800M para 2027

Puntos clave

• Celanese declaró que se fija como objetivo de 700 a 800 millones de dólares de flujo de caja libre en 2027, respaldado por un gasto de capital disciplinado, oportunidades en el capital de trabajo y menores desembolsos de efectivo por reestructuración.
• La directiva prevé que las medidas de costes actuales generen de 30 a 40 millones de dólares adicionales en ahorros en 2027, mientras que los costes funcionales podrían normalizarse en unos 20 millones de dólares. Se espera que el ahorro en gastos netos por intereses alcance aproximadamente 40 millones de dólares por debajo del EBITDA.
• Engineered Materials continuó beneficiándose de las aplicaciones médicas y electrónicas. La directiva prevé que estas áreas sigan siendo motores de crecimiento en 2027, destacando la inversión en centros de datos de IA como un viento a favor plurianual para la demanda.
• Para el cuarto trimestre de 2026, la empresa asume un descenso secuencial del volumen del 6% al 7% por factores estacionales en Engineered Materials y un descenso secuencial de las ganancias de aproximadamente 25 millones de dólares, más o menos, en Acetyl Chain.
• Celanese prevé que el gasto anual de capital se mantenga entre 300 y 350 millones de dólares, lo que incluye inversiones específicas en productividad, fiabilidad y capacidad selectiva aguas abajo.
• La empresa recibirá algo más de 150 millones de dólares por la venta de una participación adicional en Nutrinova a Mitsui. La directiva prevé obtener entre 340 y 350 millones de dólares adicionales por desinversiones para finales de 2027.

Datos financieros clave

Rendimiento operativo y del negocio

Engineered Materials

La electrónica y las aplicaciones médicas se mantuvieron como las áreas de mayor crecimiento. La directiva señaló que la demanda vinculada al despliegue global de centros de datos de IA se ha acelerado durante los últimos tres o cuatro trimestres y debería ofrecer un viento a favor durante varios años. La pauta de pedidos del cuarto trimestre se situó en niveles similares a los del tercer trimestre, y la empresa prevé un mayor crecimiento en 2027.

Celanese también está aumentando su penetración en aplicaciones para servidores de IA. La directiva destacó que los servidores tradicionales solían emplear una o dos de sus familias de polímeros, mientras que los servidores de centros de datos de IA crean oportunidades para múltiples familias de productos y un mayor volumen por familia.

Tres proyectos de Engineered Materials cuya comercialización está prevista para el primer semestre de 2027 están centrados en aplicaciones electrónicas y médicas. La inversión europea en compuestos de especialidad añadirá líneas más pequeñas diseñadas para productos de menor volumen y mayor valor.

Los volúmenes de automoción disminuyeron durante 2026, principalmente a causa de una menor producción de vehículos en China. Las condiciones se describieron como relativamente estables en el hemisferio occidental. La directiva afirmó que la mezcla de automoción y la calidad de la cartera mejoraron durante el año.

Los márgenes del nailon también mejoraron significativamente tras los cambios en la huella de fabricación y la transición hacia la compra de más polímero en lugar de su producción interna. El beneficio de inventario previsto para 2026 derivado de la optimización del nailon se redujo a aproximadamente 30 millones de dólares desde los 45 millones de dólares comentados previamente, lo que refleja una demanda más débil y retrasos en las reducciones de inventario.

Acetyl Chain

Celanese destacó la contribución de las emulsiones aguas abajo y los polvos redistribuibles en el hemisferio occidental. Estos productos ofrecen una mayor diferenciación y oportunidades de formulación específicas para cada cliente en comparación con los productos aguas arriba, lo que, según la directiva, mejora la resiliencia frente al suministro adicional procedente de Asia.

La empresa ha añadido un reactor de emulsiones en Europa y ha eliminado cuellos de botella en los activos de polvos redistribuibles con un gasto de capital reducido o nulo durante los últimos 18 meses. Se prevé que cualquier inversión adicional se ajuste al rango de gasto de capital fijado entre 300 y 350 millones de dólares.

Los costes del metanol aumentaron rápidamente a principios del tercer trimestre, lo que comprimió inicialmente los márgenes. Celanese incrementó posteriormente los precios y cerró el trimestre con una expansión general del margen. La directiva señaló que los márgenes se mantuvieron elevados en el cuarto trimestre a pesar de cierta compresión durante el mes de octubre.

Celanese tiene la intención de mantener una integración de aproximadamente el 40% al 50% en metanol, adquiriendo el resto a proveedores del mercado. Sus posiciones en metanol incluyen la empresa conjunta de Clear Lake y la empresa conjunta de Arabia Saudí.

Tow y huella europea

Las condiciones del mercado de estopa (Tow) siguieron siendo complicadas, aunque la directiva informó de cierta estabilización en los volúmenes y márgenes hacia finales de 2026. La empresa prevé que la mejora interanual en 2027 esté impulsada principalmente por las medidas de costes, incluido el cierre de Lanaken.

Solo se prevé obtener cerca de un tercio de los ahorros de Lanaken en 2026, mientras que los dos tercios restantes se materializarán en 2027. Tras el cierre, la exposición global de Celanese al gas natural europeo es relativamente limitada y se divide a grandes rasgos entre Engineered Materials y Acetyl Chain.

Previsiones de la directiva

Celanese prevé utilizar 2026 como base para mejorar en 2027. Las perspectivas dependen de la contratación con clientes, el crecimiento continuado en aplicaciones diferenciadas de Engineered Materials, las reducciones de costes y la ejecución del capital de trabajo.

Para el cuarto trimestre de 2026, la directiva incorporó la estacionalidad habitual en sus hipótesis. Se prevé que los volúmenes de Engineered Materials disminuyan entre un 6% y un 7% secuencialmente. Se espera que las ganancias de Acetyl Chain disminuyan aproximadamente 25 millones de dólares, más o menos, debido principalmente a la debilidad estacional en pinturas, recubrimientos y construcción en EE. UU. y Europa.

Las perspectivas del T4 también asumen que los márgenes de Acetyl Chain disminuirán a lo largo del trimestre para terminar en niveles más bajos. Celanese incluyó la presión generada por el encarecimiento de las materias primas y de los costes energéticos en Europa, los bajos niveles de agua del río Rin y una parada no planificada y prolongada en un proveedor clave de canalizaciones en China.

La directiva se fija como objetivo 150 millones de dólares de productividad bruta en 2027 para compensar la inflación en los costes de planta y administrativos. La empresa tiene previsto buscar productividad adicional más allá de ese nivel siempre que sea posible.

El objetivo de flujo de caja libre de 700 a 800 millones de dólares para 2027 asume asimismo que no habrá necesidad de un incremento sustancial en el gasto de capital. Un respaldo adicional podría provenir de inventarios más bajos y de una reducción de 30 a 40 millones de dólares en los desembolsos de efectivo vinculados a la reestructuración.

Riesgos y aspectos a vigilar

• Los costes de las materias primas han comenzado a subir de nuevo, incluidos el metanol y otros insumos, lo que genera una nueva presión en la relación precio-coste de cara a 2027.
• Las operaciones europeas afrontan costes de energía más elevados y presiones logísticas derivadas de los bajos niveles de agua del río Rin.
• Una parada no planificada de un proveedor en China está haciendo que Celanese opere a menores tasas de capacidad durante el cuarto trimestre.
• El aumento de capacidad en Asia está intensificando la competencia en los grados estándar de Engineered Materials, lo que exige una innovación continua y la transición hacia aplicaciones diferenciadas.
• La demanda de automoción en China se debilitó durante 2026, lo que redujo los volúmenes de Celanese en dicho sector.
• Las condiciones del mercado de estopa (Tow) siguen siendo complicadas a pesar de la reciente estabilización.
• El objetivo de flujo de caja libre para 2027 depende en parte de las mejoras en el capital de trabajo y de mayores reducciones de inventario.

Puntos destacados de la sesión de preguntas y respuestas con analistas

Flujo de caja libre: La directiva expresó su confianza en el rango de 700 a 800 millones de dólares para 2027. Las principales palancas son las ganancias, la reducción del capital de trabajo, un gasto de capital estable y menores pagos por reestructuración.

Crecimiento en electrónica: Celanese atribuyó el impulso de la electrónica tanto al crecimiento del mercado final como a una mayor penetración del producto. Los servidores de IA requieren más familias de polímeros y mayores volúmenes de material que los servidores tradicionales, lo que amplía las aplicaciones abordables de la empresa.

Márgenes de Acetyl Chain: Las hipótesis de la directiva para el T4 incluyen márgenes más bajos a finales del trimestre. Unos precios o márgenes superiores a los previstos podrían ofrecer un potencial al alza, aunque las limitaciones de proveedores y los costes más elevados en Europa siguen actuando como factores de compensación.

Transacciones de cartera: La transacción de Nutrinova forma parte del plan de desendeudamiento de Celanese. La directiva prevé alcanzar el objetivo de desinversión restante mediante varias operaciones de tamaño similar, menor o algo mayor, manteniendo las empresas conjuntas como un ámbito prioritario.

Estructura de costes: Las medidas ya adoptadas en Engineered Materials y Acetyl Chain están generando cerca de 70 millones de dólares de ahorro en 2026, y se esperan de 30 a 40 millones de dólares adicionales en 2027. La directiva también prevé aproximadamente 20 millones de dólares procedentes de la normalización de los costes funcionales.

Asignación de capital: Alcanzar el objetivo actual de desinversión de 1.000 millones de dólares no pondría fin necesariamente a las acciones sobre la cartera. La directiva afirmó que permanecerá abierta a operaciones que creen valor, aceleren el desendeudamiento o mejoren la flexibilidad financiera.

Transcripción completa de la llamada de resultados

Transcripción completa de la conferencia de resultados

Comentarios de la dirección

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to Celanese's Q3 2026 Earnings Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded.

I will now turn the conference over to Bill Cunningham. Thank you, Bill. You may begin.

William Cunningham

Thanks, Darryl, and welcome to the Celanese Corporation Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Bill Cunningham, Vice President of Investor Relations. With me today on the call are Scott Richardson, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Chuck Kyrish, Chief Financial Officer.

Celanese distributed its third quarter earnings release via Business Wire and posted prepared comments as well as a presentation on our Investor Relations website yesterday afternoon. As a reminder, we'll discuss non-GAAP financial measures today. You can find definitions of these measures as well as reconciliations to the comparable GAAP measures on our website.

Today's presentation will also include forward-looking statements. Please review the cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements, which can be found at the end of both the press release and the prepared comments. Form 8-K reports containing all of these materials have also been submitted to the SEC.

With that, Darryl, let's go ahead and open it up for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first questions are coming from the line of Ghansham Panjabi with Baird.

Preguntas y respuestas

Ghansham Panjabi

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everybody. I guess, first off, in terms of the EBITDA underpinning your $700 million to $800 million free cash flow assumption for next year, can you just give a sense as to what you're assuming in terms of underlying assumptions. Is it basically some version between 2025 and 2026, adjusting for the cost savings. What is your initial view on that?

Scott Richardson

Yes. Thanks, Ghansham. Let me start, and then I'll turn it to Chuck to talk a little bit about how he's thinking about free cash flow generation. The team is really being very intentional about how we engage with customers right now to finish the year so we can plan and position for what is still some uncertainty as we go into 2027. I think acetyls continues to focus on contracting business and with some of the benefits that we've seen from the reliability getting that business contracted for '27 and engineered materials being really deliberate and intentional with how we build the pipeline with high quality, particularly in some of these growth segments.

And so I think with that, when you combine kind of that focus of top line with the cost actions that we called out, pushing approximately $100 million between cost and interest next year, we do feel like we can make 2026 a base that we can build off of going into 2027.

William Cunningham

Yes. Thanks. And Ghansham, look, I think we're demonstrating our capability to generate $70 million to $100 million of free cash flow in 2 very different environments the last couple of years, right? As the last couple of years, there's a few different scenarios that we can hit that. It's the earnings or some levers that we have on working capital. So we're confident in this $700, $800 range for next year. A little bit more context. I think to start, there's really no need to increase our CapEx. At those levels, we're able to maintain reliability, safety, and -- but still pursuing a very targeted low capital investments in either productivity or very targeted growth areas.

I think going forward into '27 from '26, there is still a lot of opportunity in working capital because as you look at our inventory values, I mean, they're still elevated. And we still have structural opportunities there as well. In addition, I'd point out that at Celanese, it's productivity every day. But a lot of the large cost savings programs that needed large cash outlays, they're kind of running their course, right? So that cash outlay for restructuring activities should continue to decline next year, call that $30 million to $40 million, right? So all those things considered, Ghansham, we feel that $700 to $800 is really the right range for next year.

Ghansham Panjabi

Okay. Perfect. And then just for my second question. On the electronics and health care piece, obviously, that's had substantial growth and profit mix is clearly quite favorable and that some of the offset towards perhaps to and some of the mix backdrop there, the forecasters are calling out in terms of builds, et cetera, certainly for 4Q. But as we think about 20 you're going to have tougher comps for those 2 verticals. Just your thoughts as it relates to the momentum on the sales side for both electronics and health care into '27 would be helpful?

Scott Richardson

Yes. Our EM team is staying very close to customers right now and staying close to customers and matching our capabilities that we have, which we believe are immense with the opportunity sets that are out there. And it really is a focus on quality and quality into the pipeline and moving that through as quickly as possible to get to commercialization. And when you look at electronics and medical, we still see tailwind going into next year, Ghansham. And we don't think that, that stops.

And certainly, we are working many different end-use areas, and we continue to partner with customers on some really interesting new development programs really across every end use that we have. But certainly, medical and electronics has been a bright spot for us this year. and we expect that to continue into 2027.

Operator

Our next question has come from the line of Patrick Cunningham with Citi.

Patrick Cunningham

Really compelling slide on the margin contribution from downstream derivatives in the Western Hemisphere. Do you need to build any more capacity there if you have any line of sight into North America building and construction demand. And then I'm just curious on the downstream capacity specifically, how would you assess the risk longer term of those businesses being disrupted by Asian supply?

Scott Richardson

Yes. Thanks for the question, Patrick. Our operating model in acetyls has been 1 that we have continued to enhance over the course of the last several years. And where the opportunity set has been has really been further downstream and specifically in our Molsons and Powders part of the portfolio. As that business continues to penetrate further with differentiated opportunities, particularly in the Western Hemisphere, there could be a need for additional investment. We'll be very thoughtful about that. As we announced earlier in the year, we have added another reactor for the emulsions business in Europe, and we've continued to debottleneck our redispersable powders assets with very low or no capital over the course of the last 18 months.

So we'll continue to do that and then be very thoughtful about investment. But even if we needed to make investment, we still believe it will fall between kind of this -- our capital will fall between the $300 million and $350 million. One of the reasons to answer your second part, 1 of the reasons why we like the downstream portfolio is because it allows us to have more differentiation with products. Partner with customers, formulate, develop solutions that fit their needs in some of these key growing end markets, and that provides us with a little more resiliency even with the global length that we've seen more upstream, particularly out of China.

Patrick Cunningham

Got it. Very helpful. And then you characterized the Asian actuals environment is a bit more dynamic in the quarter, and it's been a volatile year overall. I guess, with the exit rate maybe a bit better towards the end of the quarter, can you help us with what's embedded in guidance in terms of the direction of prices and spreads there? And how much upside there would be if we sort of see persistent movements in prices and spreads here?

Scott Richardson

Our acetyls team wakes up every single day ready to tackle whatever is in front of them. And it's a team that works to stay very globally connected as well because oftentimes, there will be connections between what happens in 1 product and moves downstream or in what happens in 1 region impacting another region. And so that tightness and readiness is really the hallmark of that team. And so they've approached this quarter, much like they approach every quarter, which is be ready and be ready to no matter what transpires as we started the quarter, we've had a healthy margin environment.

We've got an unexpected turnaround from 1 of our key pipeline suppliers in China that is having to take an extended outage due to some government inspections that was unplanned. And so we are running at lower rates here in the quarter because of that outage. And then we do have margins coming off through the quarter and finishing at lower levels at the end of the quarter. And so that's what we've embedded into the guidance, Patrick. And I hire those 2 things were to change, and certainly, that would potentially drive a little higher margins in the back half.

Operator

Our next questions come from the line of Jeff Zekaukas with JPMorgan.

Jeffrey Zekauskas

It seems that the EU is dropping tariffs on VAM into the EU from the U.S. Is that a benefit to you or it goes to the customer? How do you see that?

Scott Richardson

Yes. Jeff, right now, we're not seeing a huge impact to the bottom line for us of some of those changing dynamics we don't see it really being material at this point. And oftentimes, that ends up flowing through over time.

Jeffrey Zekauskas

Okay. And can you tell us how your auto-related businesses in engineered materials have performed through the year. How much are volumes down? What's going on in the nylon business what's going on in the polymer business? And what's your outlook?

Scott Richardson

Jeff, we -- as we look at the auto business, we like the quality of our auto business today better than we did a couple of years ago. Now our volumes are down this year in automotive, largely driven by China. And with the builds declining in China, that's been the biggest driver. Things have been pretty stable in the Western Hemisphere, both from a build perspective as well as our overall business. But the quality of the pipeline continues to improve. And the mix has improved in really the specific auto business this year.

The team has done a great job with the changes that we've had in our manufacturing footprint, it's really given us a lot more flexibility to be less focused on grabbing volume and really focus on developing those more differentiated applications and continuing to push for value. So the quality is strong, and we're exiting the year, I think from an auto perspective, certainly better on an overall mix and portfolio than when we entered the year.

Jeffrey Zekauskas

How about nylon?

Scott Richardson

Nylon fits very much in that, Jeff, because of the changes that we've made around our footprint and the fact that we're buying as opposed to making more polymer, we just have a lot more flexibility there and margins have significantly improved. And the pipeline continues to be good for nylon in key applications, both within auto, but also outside of auto.

Operator

Our next questions come from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.

Kevin McCarthy

A couple of questions on your joint ventures. Maybe on the operational side, curious to hear your thoughts about Ebensena. We've seen MTB prices very volatile first in a good way and now kind of coming off a little. So does that create a surge in 4Q and maybe an ebb to start next year? And then a second question on JVs, as you think the deal regarding NutraNova, expected to bring in, I think, $152 million. Maybe you could just talk a little bit about that deal and prospects for other similar sort of cash generative transactions as you see it today?

Scott Richardson

Yes. Thanks, Kevin. Let me hit the benzene part first. Evensen, we view that as a very important kind of natural hedge or offset in the Engineered Materials business. So when energy prices rise have been seen tends to do better energy prices fall, then we see those earnings decline, but the base business tends to kind of move in a counterbalanced way to that. So it kind of provides that. With kind of the low operating rates that Evansena had had earlier in the year, it wasn't providing that offset that we've seen historically.

I think as you go into the fourth quarter, you will see more of that. I've been seen as on a 1-quarter lag for us. There was better performance in Q3, which will roll into the fourth quarter. We continue to see inconsistent operating rates, I would say, with Evensen, shipping out continues to be very difficult, particularly in some products. And so it has been operating, but it has been operating in consistently. I think last quarter, we expected EM affiliates to be down about $10 million year-over-year.

And now we would see EM affiliates being pretty flat on a year-over-year basis -- on an adjusted basis to what we had last year. Then on to your question about Nutranova, it's certainly a good partnership we have with Mitsui, both with the methanol joint venture in Clear Lake. And now with the partnership we have on the Nutranova joint venture, they were interested in taking a larger share and so we came to an agreement to sell an additional share where we're going to get a little over $150 million of proceeds.

And we've talked about it's likely to get to close the gap on the remaining $350 million or so, $340 million of additional divestiture proceeds that we have called out by the end of '27 that it's likely a series of transactions, probably in the range or maybe smaller or a little bit bigger than what we just announced with NutraNova. And so a continued emphasis continues to be around joint ventures to where we could extract more value and not impact some of our base operating models.

Operator

Our next question has come from the line of Frank Mitsch with Birmingham Research. .

Frank Mitsch

Scott, I'd be curious as to how you think about the acetyls business for the full year of 2026. Obviously, last year was very disappointing. However, you posted some eye-popping results in the post-covid environment? I just have a quick look. If I average out the 2019 and 2020, if I average out those 2 years, you're basically where you are in 2026. So I'm curious as to what your thoughts are. Was 2026 a year that you overearned and if so, by how much? I mean, how do you think about that?

Scott Richardson

Frank, I see and I said this to our acetyls team. I believe this is the business that never sleeps. It's a business that really has to be on point every single day, given how we've created this operating model to be able to flex. And I don't think we're going to put labels on 2026. Our team is really focused heavily on looking forward, finishing the year very strong. And then looking forward, to how we can build on '26 going into '27. We're going to see cost savings from the Lanaken shutdown. We're only going to get about 1/3 of those in '26 and the other 2/3 rolling into next year.

We've contracted new business by showing that we can be the most reliable supplier of acetyl products in the Western Hemisphere. We are leveraging our flexible network and maximizing our low cost base. We continue to work a number of reliability and productivity projects in the U.S. assets to be able to get more out of those assets as we go into next year to hopefully improve margins. And we're doing some really creative things around AI to help the manufacturing with that focus around reliability and productivity. So are just some of the things that we're focused on right now, getting executed here in the fourth quarter and the early part of next year to hopefully provide some tailwind to offset what could be some headwinds, particularly from the strong Q2 that we had.

Frank Mitsch

And then yes, just coming back to EM, you highlighted 3 projects that I think are going to be commercialized in the first half of '27 in Asia, 1 in Europe. Curious as to what sort of order of magnitude might investors expect to see out of these 3 EM projects?

Scott Richardson

Human ingenuity never stops, Frank. And our Engineered Materials team is really focused on partnering with customers on unique solutions differentiated products that we offer to be able to provide kind of a long-term and sustainable growth base for the corporation. And these 3 projects are necessary because of the great work the team has done to continue to grow in some of these high-margin areas, particularly in electronics and medical. And those 3 investments that we've made are really a focus on specifically electronics and medical application areas.

And so as we go forward, it's really about how we use, again, '26 as the base to continue to grow. I mean we're going to grow, when you adjust for Micromax, EBITDA approximately 20% or so on a year-over-year basis versus 2025. And even if you included Micromax, that EBITDA growth would be about 15%. And so it's how do we continue to kind of get that moving into '26 or '27, which is important for us from a corporation standpoint, to be able to build off of the EPS that we generated here in '26.

Operator

Our next questions come from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

Vincent Andrews

Maybe just to start off with, could you talk a little bit about the seasonality you're expecting in the fourth quarter? And is it different by region? Like, in other words, you're expecting Europe to be softer than maybe North America and just sort of what you've baked in there. Obviously, Europe is going to struggle with the higher energy costs plus there's been a backup in rates from 3Q to 4Q. So I would be curious, number one, to hear your thoughts on seasonality. And then two, the press release -- or sorry the prepared comments, you mentioned a relationship you have formed with I think the company called Vigor, in robotics.

So I'd be curious to hear a little bit more about that. I suspect that's with your PAM molecule, and I'm just kind of wondering when you think that would become interesting to your P&L? Is that a 2028, 2029, 2030 plus? Or just what the opportunity set is there.

Scott Richardson

Yes. Let me hit the second 1 first, Vincent, and then I'll come back to your first question. Look, we believe we have really enabling capabilities in our Engineered Materials business. And it's how do you match enabling capabilities with kind of -- that includes really the most vast polymer offerings that anyone has in the space. And how do you match that with customer needs. The robotics example there is a good 1 in that. And it's not just about 1 product. It's really about kind of a multiproduct offering.

And we gave the example, I think, of the continuous glucose monitor in the prepared comments, where it's not just about 1 part, and it's not just about 1 polymer that we're selling. It's about a myriad of offerings there. And so by building that relationship, by really being at the bench with the customer in the development part of that process is not just about winning one. And that is how we believe we can scale this business and how we can build that quality we can build that differentiation because of the offerings that we have.

And by being a part of that design team with customers. And so we are excited as we look forward about areas like robotics, which is really about how do you turn artificial intelligence from the digital form into the physical form. And that's really what robotics is about. And that's 1 example with one customer that we're working and we're working with a number of customers around the world on those types of application areas.

Now to get to seasonality I think what we've baked in, Vincent, quite honestly, is very similar to what we've seen historically. So in Engineered Materials, I think we've got between about a 6% and 7% volume decline baked in to the fourth quarter, that's pretty much right on what we've seen historically. And I think the early indication for the order book towards the end of November and into December would certainly match up with that forecast.

In acetyls, it's usually about a $25 million plus/minus decline from Q3 into Q4, largely driven by paints and coatings and building and construction seasonality. That really is pretty heavily contained to both the U.S. and Europe, and it's pretty evenly split, I would say. We are seeing pressure from raw materials. We are seeing pressure on cost from the low Rhine water levels, and we've baked kind of both of those into that seasonality guide that we put out.

Operator

Our next question has come from the line of Hassan Ahmed with Alembic Global.

Hassan Ahmed

Scott, a question on AC. One of the things that obviously transpired post the Middle East conflict was a fairly rapid escalation in methanol prices. And unlike certain other commodity chemicals, we really haven't seen much volatility there. Methanol continues to remain fairly high. Expectation is that at least for the next couple of quarters, you'll stay there. So just how have you managed those higher methanol prices and I know in the past, you guys have talked about how potentially sort of volatility in feedstock prices, methanol in particular, tends to be a positive for you guys.

So just trying to reconcile high methanol prices, those strong AC results that you've gotten with the net short global methanol position you guys have?

Scott Richardson

Our philosophy on methanol, Hassan is to be about 40% to 50% integrated. And we have a methanol joint venture in Clear Lake, and then we've got the joint venture in Saudi Arabia with Abencena, which also produces methanol. So those are our 2 kind of investment positions that we have in methanol, and we believe being a merchant buyer of a little bit more than 50% of our global needs is the right position to have, and I would expect that to continue to be the strategic path forward that we have.

What we have seen occur, specifically in the third quarter was a very rapid escalation in the beginning of the quarter. We saw margin compression that occurred at the very beginning of the quarter. And then over the course of the quarter, we were able to move pricing up to where we saw margin expansion overall as we exited the quarter. We've seen some compression on that as we started here the fourth quarter through most of the month of October, but we're still seeing margins at elevated levels.

And I think for us, as we go forward, certainly, we're going to do everything we can to hold here just with yes, the potential for length in the back part of the quarter, we have baked in margin compression in the steel chain into our guide here for, kind of, the balance of the quarter as we move forward. So if we can hold margins and pricing, then certainly, there could be some upside as we exit the quarter. But as I mentioned earlier, we do have that unexpected outage from our supplier in Asia. And then we are seeing some cost pressure in Europe from both energy as well as from the Rhine River levels. And so with kind of all of that, that's kind of where we netted out on the Q4 guide.

Hassan Ahmed

Fair enough. And Scott, as a follow-up, with the cost-cutting sort of exercises that you guys have carried out, productivity improvements and the like, just trying to get a sense of what that equates to in terms of EBITDA tailwinds for 2027?

Scott Richardson

Yes. Let me start, and then I'll let Chuck get into the details. We never stop looking for ways to be more effective and efficient. I think I've been with the company for over 20 years, and I think it's been a part of our DNA to focus on driving as much productivity as we possibly can and getting creative. And once we've implemented a project that creates a new normal and then how do we optimize around that and continue to get creative.

And some of the things that we're doing, we kind of call it next-generation productivity. So how do we use technology like AI within our manufacturing assets to get better at raw material efficiency, get better at energy efficiency. We get lower our maintenance costs, et cetera. And we're starting to see early returns from that, and we would expect to be able to build on that to create new opportunities into '27 and beyond. So that's kind of how we philosophically think about productivity and cost reduction. Chuck, do you want to hit on?

Jeffrey Zekauskas

With the cost actions that we've already done in both Engineered Materials and actual chain, we're seeing around now $70 million flow through this year. But with just those same actions we have another $30 to $40 million that will hit us next year in cost savings. And it's on the vast majority of that is EBITDA. We also expect functional costs to normalize somewhat in '27, call it, $20 million or so. That's EBITDA. Below EBITDA, we also do expect interest expense savings to begin, and that's $40 million on a net basis, not on EBITDA, but certainly another cost savings. .

Operator

Our next questions come from the line of Josh Spector with UBS.

Joshua Spector

I'd be curious if you can characterize where Engineered Materials price cost is in the second half. I know in the prepared remarks, you said in 3Q, you offset it through mix and some other factors. But if we just think we're pricing is relative to costs. Is there still a meaningful gap to close in second half as we're looking at '27? Or where does that stand?

Scott Richardson

Yes. Thanks, Josh. If we go back, pricing was a critical part of the second quarter. And we talked very openly about the need to exit the second quarter with strong pricing to be able to offset the cost headwind that was going to hit us with kind of the delayed flow-through of raw materials in the third quarter. And that's exactly what happened. And as you can see from the numbers, we are -- we were able to get a little bit more incremental price in the third quarter as well to help offset some of those cost pressures that we saw.

We are seeing -- after seeing a stabilization of costs in the third quarter. We are seeing some costs start to rise. And that cost, particularly methanol has been mentioned here, energy costs in Europe and several other raw materials are moving up now again here as we work our way through the fourth quarter. And so the team continues to be very focused on price and pushing more price because of that kind of next wave of raw material increases that we're seeing.

And so that's going to be important that we push to get some of those key price areas as we exit this year because those raw materials are going to flow through in Q1.

Joshua Spector

Okay. And I wanted to follow up just on the supply side in Engineered Materials. I mean, if we say the market is kind of flat is so the supply set up better or worse for you into next year? And can you keep your differentiated products differentiated against potential supply out of China, other parts of Asia, et cetera?

Scott Richardson

Our EM team never stops working this equation, Josh. I mean you do have a fair amount of the business that churns out every quarter, every year. And so it's important that, that innovation engine is always running hard. And and is pushing to get that differentiation. I mean, we've been very open about the fact that there has been new capacities that have been added in Asia, and we've seen more competition on the standard grades.

And so we try to get ahead of that with the footprint actions that we have taken. And I think that is really kind of playing out as the right move for us because it doesn't push that volume equation as being as critical for us as we move forward. And it really allows us to focus on development of the pipeline in those more differentiated areas. And so we can't stop there. And we have to continue to be focused with customers in the areas where we are -- we have better products, we have more differentiated products. And we're very clear about that value proposition to customers to where we become the supplier of choice.

And I think, with the growth that we've seen in certain pockets of the business, both electronics and medical, I would also say the quality of the auto business as well has been very good this year relative to past years. And so those 3 areas, I think, are giving us some tailwind as we finish '26 and go into '27.

Operator

Our next questions come from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

David Begleiter

Scott, you mentioned some earnings tailwinds for next year. Any cost headwinds you would point out, not including raw materials that you see right now?

Scott Richardson

David, we have to continue to find more because there's always things that you don't predict that could happen. We are going to see a continued, we believe, inflationary environment on some of our cost at the plant and some of our administrative costs. And so we work the productivity angle they're hard. We are targeting $150 million of gross productivity to offset inflation going into 2027. So it's really critical that we build out that pipeline from a manufacturing and procurement standpoint, to be able to offset that inflation.

Now we're going to push to do higher than the $150 million of gross, so that we can hopefully put some of that to the bottom line just because I do think we are going to continue to see inflationary pressures there. We do have to -- and I know you didn't ask about this, but I do think we have to continue to stay above this -- ahead of this price cost environment because it has been dynamic, and it has been volatile. We saw stabilization of RAS, but now raws has started to move in certain regions as well as energy prices have moved. So it's really important that we work ways to more than offset that as well in order to build off of the EPS that we're driving in '26.

David Begleiter

Very good. And just on the divestitures, once you reach the $1 billion target, are you essentially done with divestments?

Scott Richardson

David, we're always going to be open and willing. And certainly, if something adds value, and it helps us accelerate deleveraging or give us more flexibility going forward. We're not going to stop working divestitures. I mean we had set that target because we believe, one, it was the right target, we believe is a realistic target 1 that we could hit and it was also very important for us on our deleveraging journey, but we are not going to necessarily stop working things that make sense to create value. .

Operator

Our next questions come from the line of Matthew Dia with Bank of America.

Matthew DeYoe

I want to talk a little bit about the tow market for '27. I know there's some idiosyncrasies across companies and how they've handled some of the capacity and competition. I know you talked about Atlantic and the tailwind there. But ex that, perhaps, what are you expecting for earnings from the underlying tow business and price competition? Do you think you can keep prices flat for next year? Do you think you can grow volumes? How does that look?

Scott Richardson

Matthew, our team in state two has been keenly focused on actions that are controllable to drive year-over-year improvement for us. And the Lanaken decision was a difficult one, but it was 1 that was necessary for us going into next year to be able to drive controllable cost improvement to help offset some of the challenges we've seen mean the tow market conditions have been challenging.

And as we have kind of worked our way through this year, we are seeing a bit of a stabilization, I would say, of tow volume and margins as we finish 2026 versus where we started the year. And as we go into next year, our belief is that overall tow performance should be improved really driven by the cost actions that we've taken that are controllable. From a market and industry perspective, we do expect continued stabilization as we work our way forward. But we're also looking for ways at which to drive improvement at the variable margin line over time. So -- we kind of look at year-over-year improvement really being driven by cost.

Matthew DeYoe

And then if I could, like what is the general sensitivity on the European footprint to gas. I would assume most of that's in AC, but I don't know if you've ever given numbers around that or if you feel comfortable giving numbers around that?

Scott Richardson

So Matthew, we've worked our manufacturing footprint optimization as a company now for over 20 years. I mean we've been very focused on investing in parts of the world that have the lowest cost inputs in the U.S. We've been focused on investing in parts of the world where growing demand centers like Asia and China. And Europe has been, from a manufacturing footprint, a region that has continued to get smaller for Celanese over time. .

As we started 2026, the largest exposure we had to gas in Europe was the Lanaken facility. So now we noting out of our network, the plant that we have in Germany is the largest exposure to gas. But to be honest, the gas usage is at a lower level. And so our exposure really is kind of split pretty evenly between both Engineered Materials and asset deals. But in the grand scheme of things, when you look at the entirety of the corporation, it's a pretty low percentage of our energy exposure that we have.

Operator

Our next questions come from the line of John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets.

John McNulty

Just wanted to dig into the electronics growth in EM a little bit more. I guess can you help us to think about how much of it was driven by just the end markets accelerating from 2Q to 3Q? How much of it was tied to maybe more successful penetration of those existing end markets? I guess, how should we be thinking about that?

Scott Richardson

Yes, John, we believe it's really being driven by growth. I mean we are seeing kind of a generational spike in demand coming from kind of the global data center build-out around AI. And we believe that's going to be a multiyear kind of tailwind that we should see. And I think what we've seen that -- what we've seen happen over the course of the last 3 or 4 quarters is that has certainly been accelerating. Based upon how our order book has developed for the fourth quarter, I mean, we're seeing that kind of continue at similar levels to what we saw in the third quarter, and we expect that to continue to grow as we work our way into 2027. .

John McNulty

Got it. So when we think about going forward, it's really about the end market growth, maybe a little bit less about just new applications, things that you're targeting. Is that the right way to think about it? Or is your ability to target additional pieces of the market also going to be a decent sized growth driver going forward?

Scott Richardson

No. Look, the market dynamics are creating opportunities for Celanese products for penetration because of the capabilities that we have. And I talked earlier about it's really about how we look at markets and match our capabilities and then find ways at which to penetrate it. So it's really both things that are happening here, John. It's -- the market is growing. We are penetrating with different opportunities. I mean, if you look at, for example, a traditional server we would have sold kind of 1, maybe 2 polymer families into that server.

You look at an AI data center server. That we've got multiple product families that have opportunity sets within that. And then there's additional volume for each of those polymer families on that because of the requirements that are there. So it really is about finding those application areas with high technical requirements where our capabilities are a really good match.

Operator

Our next questions come from the line of Alex Yefremov with Barclays.

Unknown Analyst

Coming back to your EU specialty compounding project. Could you just help us understand what is the current specialty compounding, I presume this is a differentiated type of compounding and if so, in what way? And is there generally a shortage of compounding in EU?

Scott Richardson

No. Alexi, it really is about putting in a line that is more focused on some of these smaller high-value areas. Oftentimes, the high-value areas have lower volumes. And so you want to make those on lines that have -- that are a little bit smaller and have specific capabilities. And so with the growth that we've seen this year, particularly in medical and electronics, we have -- we're getting to the point of kind of filling out that capacity that we have that can -- that is really appropriately focused on those materials.

And so putting in some additional lines that have those capabilities is something that we identified and the team moved very quickly to go and solve for that here at the end of the year.

Unknown Analyst

And I recall last quarter, you mentioned $45 million inventory related impacts in nylon 66. I think you're seeing those in the second half of this year. Should we think about that amount? I guess, a, is this still a good amount to use? And b, is this a tailwind fully next year?

William Cunningham

Alex, so our nylon optimization efforts are right on track. We have seen some delay in inventory reductions and from softer demand in certain end uses. So that $45 million, let's call it, closer to maybe $30 million for this year, Alex. And we're still looking at 2027 and action plans there, and we can update that number for next year as we go forward.

Operator

Our final question will come from the line of John Roberts with Mizuho. .

John Ezekiel Roberts

Two questions here. Blackstone is selling its Sig to business to a Chinese company. Does that portend some share shift that may be coming in Sigto? Or do you think it's just a new owner in status quo?

Scott Richardson

John, as I mentioned earlier, to market conditions have been challenging. We took action with the Lanaken facility. And now we're seeing others take other actions with that announcement that you alluded to. Our focus is going to continue to be unchanged. We don't -- can't predict what's going to happen in the market. We're going to continue to be a reliable supplier to our customers. And we're going to constantly work to take action to elevate the return profile of this product line because it has been over the course of the last year or 2 at levels that are lower than we believe they should be. And so we need to continue to work to drive growth there, and our team is continually looking at ways to do that.

John Ezekiel Roberts

And then secondly, you've always had among the lowest tax rates in the sector. will the regional shift in the portfolio actions affect the future tax rate in any meaningful way?

Scott Richardson

No, I don't expect those shifts to impact that, John.

Well, thanks, everybody. We'd like to thank you for listening in today. As always, we're available after the call for any follow-up questions. Daryl, let's go ahead and close out the call.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you so much for participating in today's call. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and enjoy the rest of your day.