Conferencia de resultados del T3 de 2026 de ADT: Los ingresos aumentan un 4% a medida que avanza el acuerdo con Thrive

Conclusiones clave

• ADT informó de unos ingresos en el tercer trimestre de 2026 de 1.350 millones de dólares, un 4% más interanual. Los ingresos por instalación, productos y otros conceptos aumentaron un 32%, hasta los 265 millones de dólares.
• El EBITDA ajustado cayó un 2%, hasta los 665 millones de dólares, debido a que los mayores gastos generales y administrativos, incluidas las inversiones tecnológicas, compensaron parte de los beneficios de los ingresos por instalación.
• El BPA ajustado aumentó un 4%, hasta los 0,24 dólares. El flujo de caja libre ajustado, incluidos los swaps de tipos de interés, creció un 4%, hasta los 217 millones de dólares.
• El flujo de caja libre ajustado en lo que va de año superó los 1.000 millones de dólares, un 46% más y ya por encima del nivel generado en todo el ejercicio 2025.
• ADT acordó ser adquirida por Thrive Holdings por 10 dólares por acción en efectivo, lo que valora a la empresa en aproximadamente 7.600 millones de dólares en valor patrimonial y 15.300 millones de dólares en valor de empresa.
• Debido a la transacción pendiente, ADT retiró sus previsiones financieras emitidas anteriormente y no celebró sesión de preguntas y respuestas con analistas.

Datos financieros principales

Rendimiento comercial y operativo

La tasa bruta de pérdida de ingresos de clientes fue del 13,1%, frente al 13,0% de un año antes. Las mayores cancelaciones por falta de pago se compensaron parcialmente con un menor número de desconexiones voluntarias. El periodo de recuperación del ingreso en los últimos 12 meses se mantuvo estable en 2,3 años.

Las adiciones de ingresos mensuales recurrentes brutos alcanzaron los 12,1 millones de dólares en 195.000 adiciones brutas de unidades. Las adiciones de unidades por instalación profesional directa y de RMR mejoraron interanualmente, mientras que los volúmenes de distribuidores y las compras de cuentas al por mayor disminuyeron.

ADT adquirió aproximadamente 8.000 cuentas de clientes por 9 millones de dólares en efectivo durante el trimestre. También introdujo alertas de actividad inusual (Unusual Activity Alerts) en ADT+, avanzó en las pruebas piloto de la tecnología de detección de presencia Origin AI, amplió ADT Blu a Walmart.com y lanzó ADT Partner Services. A través de esta última iniciativa, ADT señaló que comenzaría a instalar y prestar servicios de mantenimiento para productos seleccionados de Apple Retail y sus clientes a finales de noviembre de 2026.

ADT cerró el trimestre con 228 millones de dólares en efectivo y equivalentes de efectivo y sin saldo dispuesto en su línea de crédito revolvente. El apalancamiento neto se situó en 2,7 veces el EBITDA ajustado, por debajo de las 2,8 veces de un año antes. La compañía destinó 64 millones de dólares a los accionistas durante el trimestre y 748 millones de dólares en lo que va de año mediante dividendos y recompra de acciones.

Previsiones de la gerencia

ADT retiró sus previsiones financieras publicadas anteriormente debido a la adquisición pendiente por parte de Thrive Holdings. La dirección no ofreció nuevas perspectivas de ingresos, beneficios ni flujo de caja.

La empresa prevé que la transacción se cierre en el primer trimestre de 2027, sujeta a las condiciones de cierre habituales, la aprobación de los accionistas de ADT y la autorización antimonopolio de Estados Unidos.

Riesgos y consideraciones clave

La transacción de Thrive Holdings sigue sujeta a las condiciones de cierre, incluidas las aprobaciones de los accionistas y de las autoridades antimonopolio de Estados Unidos. Thrive espera financiar la adquisición en efectivo mediante una combinación de capital propio, deuda y acciones preferentes.

El acuerdo de fusión incluye un periodo de solicitud de ofertas alternativas (go-shop) hasta el 28 de noviembre de 2026. ADT declaró que no tiene intención de revelar la evolución de dicho proceso salvo que resulte oportuno o sea legalmente obligatorio.

Entre las consideraciones operativas se encuentran el elevado nivel de cancelaciones por impago, los mayores costes de G&A vinculados en parte a inversiones tecnológicas y los efectos comparativos de la desinversión del negocio multifamiliar en octubre de 2025.

Transcripción completa de la llamada de resultados

Transcripción completa de la conferencia de resultados

Comentarios de la dirección

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the ADT Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. I will now hand the conference over to Elizabeth Landers, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Elizabeth Landers

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. Speaking on today's call are Jim DeVries, ADT's Chairman, President and CEO; and Jeff Likosar, our Chief Financial Officer. As you know, on October 29, we announced that ADT has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Thrive Holdings. In consideration of the pending transaction, we will not be taking questions on today's call.

Additionally, we will not be providing financial guidance and are withdrawing previously issued guidance.

This morning, we issued a press release and presentation summarizing our third quarter results. Both are available at investor.adt.com. During today's call, we'll reference certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures are included in the earnings presentation on our website. Unless noted otherwise, all financials and metrics discussed reflect continuing operations.

Our remarks today also include forward-looking statements that fall within the safe harbor provisions provided by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act, including statements regarding the proposed transaction. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that are described in the earnings presentation and in our SEC filings, including the risks related to timing and completion of the proposed transaction. Actual results may differ materially. Please refer to our SEC filings for more details.

We also refer you to the information in our press release regarding the proxy statement ADT intends to file with the SEC in connection with the proposed transaction and regarding participants in the solicitation. Investors and stockholders are urged to read the proxy statement when it becomes available. And now I'm happy to turn the call over to Jim.

James DeVries

Thanks, Elizabeth, and good morning, everyone. I'll keep my remarks brief this morning, focusing on the transaction we announced last Thursday, and then Jeff will walk through our third quarter results.

On Thursday, October 29, we announced that we have entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Thrive Holdings in an all-cash transaction. Under the terms of the agreement, which our Board of Directors unanimously approved, ADT stockholders will receive $10 per share in cash upon completion. $10 represents a premium of 46% to ADT's unaffected closing share price on October 27 and 52% to our 30-day volume-weighted average share price ending on that date. The agreement values ADT at approximately $7.6 billion in equity value and $15.3 billion in enterprise value.

We believe this transaction represents an important next chapter for ADT, bringing together our more than 150 years of security experience, nationwide service network and trusted customer relationships with Thrive Holdings' long-term capital and engineering capabilities. I am pleased with this outcome, which recognizes the value built by our more than 12,000 employees and dealer partners, our long-standing commitment to providing peace of mind and our continued advancement of ADT's capabilities and technologies. Our progress and this transaction deliver an attractive cash premium to our stockholders.

ADT's leadership in smart home security is built on a legacy of trust, long-standing customer relationships and the dedication of our people. And importantly, for our customers, ADT's data and privacy policies will remain unchanged and no new data sharing will occur without customer permission.

We anticipate this transaction to close in the first quarter of 2027, subject to customary closing conditions, including approval by ADT's stockholders and receipt of U.S. antitrust approval. This is an all-cash transaction, and Thrive expects to finance it through a combination of equity, debt and preferred equity.

As outlined in our announcement, the merger agreement includes a go-shop period that runs through November 28. As is customary, we do not intend to disclose developments with respect to that process unless and until we determine disclosure is appropriate or otherwise required.

Until the transaction closes, ADT will continue to operate independently as a public company. Importantly, with this transaction, ADT's focus has not changed. We remain committed to serving our customers, supporting our dealers and partners and executing our key initiatives.

During the quarter, we continued to make progress across our 3 core differentiators: unrivaled safety, premium customer experience and innovative offerings. We introduced Unusual Activity Alerts in ADT+, advanced pilots of our Origin AI presence sensing technology, expanded ADT Blu to Walmart.com and launched ADT Partner Services through which we will install and service select products for Apple Retail and its customers beginning later this month.

Before I turn the call over to Jeff, I want to thank our employees, our dealers and partners and the first responders we work alongside every day. Your commitment is what has earned ADT the trust of millions of customers for more than 150 years. I'll now turn the call over to Jeff.

Jeffrey Likosar

Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. I'll take the next few minutes to describe our third quarter with all comparisons year-over-year unless I note otherwise.

In summary, I'm very pleased to report that ADT again delivered strong results with continued revenue growth, solid earnings and robust cash generation, all in line with our expectations. Our consistent performance, while we continue to invest in our business, underscores the strength of our cash generation capabilities, which remain a highlight of our results.

Adjusted free cash flow, including interest rate swaps, was $217 million, up 4% in the quarter. On a year-to-date basis, we're up 46%, having generated more than $1 billion through the first 3 quarters in excess of last year's full year level. Key drivers include lower cash taxes and interest, along with working capital management and some timing favorability.

On the top line, total revenue was $1.35 billion, up 4%. Installation, product and other revenue was $265 million, up 32%, driven by a higher mix of professionally installed systems under our outright sales model.

Monitoring and related services revenue was $1.08 billion, down 1%, which includes the revenue loss from the October 2025 divestiture of our multifamily business. Ending recurring monthly revenue was $360 million compared to $362 million a year ago, with that decline also primarily reflecting the multifamily divestiture.

Adjusted EBITDA was $665 million, down 2%. This reflects higher general and administrative costs, including technology investments, partially offset by the margin on our higher installation revenue. Adjusted EPS was $0.24, up 4%. And on a year-to-date basis, we have generated $0.71 of adjusted EPS, up 6%, benefiting from a lower diluted share count along with lower interest expense.

Turning to operational metrics. Gross customer revenue attrition was 13.1% compared with 13% a year ago, with elevated nonpay cancellations partially offset by fewer voluntary disconnects. Trailing 12-month revenue payback was 2.3 years, consistent with the prior year.

Gross RMR additions were $12.1 million on 195,000 gross unit additions. Direct professional install unit and RMR additions continued to perform strongly, improving versus the prior year, offset by lower volume from dealers and bulk account purchases.

During the quarter, we completed a bulk account purchase of approximately 8,000 customer accounts for $9 million in cash. In August, we secured $100 million of incremental borrowings under our First Lien Term Loan A due 2030. We designated the proceeds for general corporate purposes, which may include repayment of a portion of our 2027 notes. Including these proceeds, we ended the quarter with $228 million of cash and cash equivalents with no borrowings under our revolving credit facility.

Net leverage was 2.7x adjusted EBITDA compared with 2.8x a year ago. During the quarter, we returned $64 million to shareholders, including $23 million in share repurchases and $41 million in dividends. Year-to-date, we have returned $748 million to shareholders through dividends and the repurchase of 89 million shares.

To conclude, we delivered solid overall third quarter results with revenue growth, strong year-to-date cash generation and stable core operating metrics, all while continuing to invest in our business for the long term.

As Elizabeth mentioned, due to the pending transaction, we won't be taking questions today. Thank you to our employees for their continued dedication, and thank you to our customers, dealers, partners and our investors.

And thank you all for joining us this morning. Operator, that concludes today's call.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.