Conferencia de resultados del T3 de 2026 de Brunswick (BC): El BPA sube un 63%, eleva sus previsiones

Puntos clave

• Brunswick Corporation (NYSE: BC) registró en el tercer trimestre de 2026 unas ventas netas de 1.500 millones de dólares, un 7% más en tasa interanual, con un crecimiento de las ventas en todos los segmentos de información financiera por quinto trimestre consecutivo.
• El BPA ajustado subió un 63% hasta los 1,58 dólares. El beneficio operativo ajustado aumentó un 38%, mientras que el margen operativo ajustado se amplió en 230 puntos básicos hasta el 10,1%.
• El flujo de caja libre trimestral aumentó un 26% hasta los 140 millones de dólares. Brunswick recompró acciones por valor de 75 millones de dólares en lo que va de año y amortizó 100 millones de dólares de deuda.
• El segmento de Piezas y Accesorios de Motor logró sus mayores ventas en un tercer trimestre desde 2020. Su margen operativo ajustado alcanzó el 24,6%, lo que supone un aumento de 190 puntos básicos.
• La directiva elevó las previsiones de BPA ajustado para todo el año a aproximadamente 4,65 dólares desde los 4,55 dólares, mientras mantuvo la previsión de ingresos entre 5.700 millones y 5.800 millones de dólares y el margen operativo ajustado estimado en aproximadamente el 8%.
• Brunswick prevé que Aine Denari asuma el cargo de consejera delegada el 1 de enero, en sustitución de David Foulkes. La empresa señaló que su estrategia, sus prioridades de asignación de capital y sus objetivos a largo plazo presentados en el Día del Inversor se mantienen sin cambios.

Resultados financieros principales

El incremento de las ventas, la mejora en la absorción de costes de producción, una combinación favorable de productos, las eficiencias operativas y una disciplina en la gestión de costes impulsaron la rentabilidad. Estos factores compensaron con creces la inflación de materiales y mano de obra, así como el gasto planificado en productos y tecnología.

Rendimiento comercial y operativo

Propulsión

Las ventas de Propulsión aumentaron un 7%, incluido un crecimiento del 7% en motores fuera de borda y del 9% en mandos, aparejos y hélices. El beneficio operativo ajustado subió un 51% y el margen operativo ajustado se amplió en 350 puntos básicos hasta el 12%.

La directiva atribuyó la mejora del margen a las mayores ventas, una combinación favorable de productos, la mejora en la absorción y una menor presión arancelaria interanual. Brunswick mantuvo una cuota del 46% en el mercado minorista de fuera de borda en Estados Unidos y señaló que tres de los cinco nuevos programas de motores fuera de borda están programados para lanzarse en 2027.

Los inventarios del canal de fuera de borda en Estados Unidos cayeron un 3% en tasa interanual, manteniéndose ajustados. La directiva también informó de continuas ganancias de cuota en los mercados de remotorización e internacionales.

Piezas y Accesorios de Motor

Las ventas de Piezas y Accesorios de Motor aumentaron un 5%, impulsadas por la participación en la navegación recreativa y las ganancias de cuota de distribución. El beneficio operativo ajustado subió un 14%, mientras que el margen operativo ajustado aumentó 190 puntos básicos hasta el 24,6%.

Brunswick afirmó que el segmento registró sus mayores ventas en un tercer trimestre desde 2020. Una mejor combinación de productos de mayor margen, medidas de fijación de precios previas y la disciplina de costes respaldaron el resultado, compensados en parte por los mayores costes de las materias primas y materiales.

Navico Group

Las ventas de Navico Group subieron un 6%, con crecimiento en sus tres líneas de negocio. La adjudicación de nuevos productos impulsó un crecimiento de doble dígito en los fabricantes de equipos originales (OEM) del sector marino, mientras que los canales minorista y de posventa se mantuvieron estables.

El beneficio operativo ajustado aumentó un 36% y el margen operativo ajustado se amplió en 140 puntos básicos hasta el 6,1%. La consolidación de la presencia física, la racionalización de referencias (SKU) y otras medidas de costes compensaron con creces la inflación en memorias y otros materiales.

La directiva identificó los nuevos productos, un mayor contenido por embarcación, las adjudicaciones de OEM, el crecimiento de la posventa, la inteligencia artificial y la automatización de procesos como los futuros impulsores del margen.

Segmento de Embarcaciones y Freedom Boat Club

Las ventas del segmento de embarcaciones aumentaron un 9%, lideradas por un crecimiento del 30% en pesca en agua salada, del 13% en embarcaciones de aluminio para agua dulce y del 14% en Aceleración del Negocio (Business Acceleration). El beneficio operativo ajustado se duplicó, mientras que el margen operativo ajustado aumentó 160 puntos básicos hasta el 3,6%.

La compañía continuó reduciendo sus ofertas orientadas al segmento económico, centrándose en los productos clave y de categoría prémium. La directiva señaló que estos productos generan aproximadamente el 90% del beneficio de Boat Group.

Freedom Boat Club representó aproximadamente el 13% de las ventas del segmento. Brunswick estimó que Freedom poseía el 69% del mercado de clubes náuticos de Norteamérica, lo que supone un aumento de cuatro puntos porcentuales. Las salidas de socios aumentaron un 3% en lo que va de año.

Previsiones de la directiva

Las nuevas perspectivas de BPA ajustado se sitúan aproximadamente un 13% por encima del punto medio inicial de Brunswick para 2026 de 4,10 dólares y más de un 42% por encima del BPA ajustado de 2025 de 3,27 dólares.

La directiva prevé una ampliación del margen de Propulsión de más de 100 puntos básicos para todo el año y una expansión del margen de Navico Group superior a los 200 puntos básicos.

Para 2027, la directiva reiteró los objetivos de su plan estratégico de un crecimiento de las ventas del 5% al 8% y un apalancamiento operativo del 20% al 25%. Estos siguen siendo objetivos de la empresa en lugar de resultados registrados. Los factores favorables previstos incluyen los nuevos motores fuera de borda Mercury, las ganancias de cuota en remotorización y distribución, los lanzamientos de productos de Navico, el continuo reequilibrio entre ventas al por mayor y al por menor, y los ahorros derivados del cierre definitivo de instalaciones de Boat Group.

Riesgos y aspectos a vigilar

• La incertidumbre geopolítica, la inflación y los elevados costes de endeudamiento siguen ejerciendo presión sobre la confianza del consumidor y el gasto discrecional, especialmente entre los consumidores del segmento económico.
• La directiva citó la inflación en el aluminio, el cobre y las memorias. Se prevé que la mayor parte de la reciente presión de costes afecte al segundo semestre de 2026, aunque los movimientos futuros de las materias primas siguen siendo inciertos.
• Brunswick mantuvo su estimación de aproximadamente 40 millones de dólares en costes arancelarios incrementales netos para 2026. La fecha de las devoluciones arancelarias sigue siendo incierta.
• La confianza de los distribuidores y de los OEM se mantiene estable pero prudente, y se espera que el aprovisionamiento de los canales siga siendo disciplinado durante la temporada baja.
• Las ventas minoristas de la industria náutica en Estados Unidos cayeron aproximadamente un 4% hasta septiembre. Brunswick afirmó que su rendimiento minorista interno ajustado en EE. UU. estuvo en línea con la industria tras excluir los modelos económicos descatalogados.
• Los precios del combustible se mantienen elevados, aunque la directiva declaró no haber observado indicios de una menor participación en las salidas de Freedom Boat Club ni en la demanda del mercado de posventa.

Puntos destacados del turno de preguntas de analistas

Perspectivas para el cuarto trimestre: La directiva señaló que aproximadamente la mitad del rendimiento superior del beneficio del tercer trimestre se incorporó a las mayores perspectivas de BPA para todo el año. La parte no trasladada reflejó principalmente la inflación de materiales no prevista en julio. La directiva indicó que los supuestos de demanda comercial y pedidos no habían cambiado de forma sustancial.

Inflación en 2027: Brunswick considera que absorbió la mayor parte de la reciente presión inflacionaria durante la segunda mitad de 2026. La empresa afirmó que las condiciones de las materias primas se estaban estabilizando, mientras que las medidas de mitigación incluyen coberturas, compras a escala, ingeniería de valor y abastecimiento alternativo.

Fijación de precios: Los precios de las embarcaciones aumentaron aproximadamente entre un 3% y un 4% en todas las líneas de productos en 2026. La directiva prevé incrementos similares en 2027 en función de los costes de los insumos actuales. Se espera asimismo que las subidas de precio en los motores fuera de borda sigan siendo moderadas. La empresa advirtió de que los precios medios de venta más elevados también reflejan un giro hacia productos prémium y no solo incrementos de tarifa.

Inventario y distribuidores: La directiva señaló que los inventarios del canal siguen ajustados y que más de la mitad de los distribuidores tienen más del 50% de su capacidad crediticia disponible. Brunswick prevé beneficiarse en cierta medida del continuo reequilibrio entre las ventas al por mayor y al por menor en 2027.

Racionalización de la cartera: La directiva prevé una modesta racionalización adicional de los modelos de embarcaciones de fibra de vidrio del segmento económico, al tiempo que aumentará la inversión en categorías de mayor valor, incluidas las embarcaciones de expedición y aventura.

Transcripción completa de la conferencia de resultados

Transcripción completa de la conferencia de resultados

Comentarios de la dirección

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Brunswick Corporation's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Today's meeting will be recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. I would now like to introduce Stephen Weiland, Senior Vice President and Deputy CFO, Brunswick Corporation.

Stephen Weiland

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. With me on the call this morning are David Foulkes, Brunswick's Chairman and CEO; Ryan Gwillim, Brunswick's CFO and Chief Strategy Officer; and Aine Denari, President of Navico Group and Brunswick's Chief Technology Officer. Before we begin with our prepared remarks, I would like to remind everyone that during this call, our comments will include certain forward-looking statements about future results. Please keep in mind that our actual results could differ materially from these expectations.

For details on the factors to consider, please refer to our recent SEC filings and today's press release. All of these documents are available on our website at brunswick.com. During our presentation, we will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial information. Reconciliations of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures are provided in the appendix to this presentation and the reconciliation sections of the unaudited consolidated financial statements accompanying today's results. I will now turn the call over to Dave.

David Foulkes

Thank you, Steve. Brunswick delivered another strong quarter, characterized by solid execution across the enterprise with financial performance ahead of expectations and year-over-year sales growth across all reporting segments for the fifth consecutive quarter. Headwinds from geopolitical uncertainty, inflation and higher borrowing costs are weighing on consumer confidence and discretionary spending, particularly for the value consumer. Our premium and core focus portfolio continues to be resilient and perform ahead of overall year-to-date SSI data. .

When adjusted for the impact of discontinued value models, our overall year-to-date U.S. retail is in line with the market. Boating participation remains healthy, supporting demand for parts aftermarket products and subscription boating, which together with distribution market share gains helped drive our strongest third quarter engine P&A sales since 2020. Marine OEM orders remain balanced, but with lean pipelines drove solid gains for Mercury Marine and Navico Group.

Bulten engine pipelines remained low and healthy with global boat pipelines down approximately 900 units versus the third quarter of last year, including a reduction of approximately 700 units in the U.S. Overall net sales of $1.5 billion increased 7% versus prior year, and adjusted operating earnings per share of $1.58 increased 63%, benefiting from business outperformance and a favorable adjusted effective tax rate and come in significantly ahead of expectations. Adjusted operating margin increased 230 basis points and expanded by 140 basis points or more across all segments, driven by leverage on higher sales and the lapping of last year's cap impacts offset by cost inflation and planned incremental product development spending. We generated $140 million of free cash flow in the quarter, up $29 million from prior year. with strong earnings helping overcome the increased product investment and reduce working capital benefit due to higher volumes.

Lastly, we've repurchased $75 million of shares year-to-date taking advantage of our strong cash flow and favorable market conditions and retired $100 million of debt, leaving us on track to meet or exceed our $160 million debt reduction target for the year. These actions demonstrate continued execution of our disciplined capital allocation strategy and our commitment to returning capital to shareholders while maintaining a strong balance sheet and our investment-grade credit rating.

Turning now to external conditions. As mentioned, geopolitical uncertainty, inflation and high interest rates continue to pressure discretionary spending and consumer confidence, especially for value consumers. However, strong capital markets and spending momentum amongst wealthier consumers continues to support the resilient performance of our premium and core brands and product lines. And while fuel prices are elevated, they do not appear to be abating enthusiasm for boating with solid boating participation driving our strong performance and increased Freedom boat club memberships.

The tariff environment continues to evolve, but we continue to be agile in driving mitigation. We are maintaining a net incremental tariff estimate at approximately $40 million for 2026. We recognized around $3 million of gross EPA refunds in the quarter and approximately $33 million year-to-date with approximately an additional $10 million reflected in full year guidance. Overall, we expect to recognize $60 million to $70 million in gross IEFA refunds with the majority of the balance expected in 2027.

Dealer and OEM sentiment remains stable but cautious. However, dealer finances are healthy and benefiting from low pipeline inventories. The majority of our dealer partners have more than 50% of their credit capacity available, leaving them well positioned for retail acceleration. The expected balanced pipeline dynamic we discussed at the beginning of the year is playing out with Brunswick and our OEM customers and partners closely aligning wholesale with retail. All segments delivered sales growth over the prior year period for the fifth consecutive quarter, and all segments expanded adjusted operating margin in the quarter on higher sales with the Propulsion segment lapping its first half incremental tariff burden and delivering 350 basis points of increase, fueled by higher volumes and strong high horsepower outboard sales, which attract higher margins.

We maintained our market-leading U.S. outboard retail share of 46%, with strong wholesale share gains year-to-date. and also saw gains in repower as we execute the repower expansion plan shared at our Investor Day. Internationally, Mercury continues to gain share through dealer, OEM and retail partnerships. Mercury share of boat shows remained strong, as highlighted by our recent performance at the CAN show where Mercury achieved 67% overall outward share and 82% share at the Viewport location. That features larger, more premium boats. Our 5 new outboard programs remain on track with 3 launching next year, and we anticipate these programs will continue to fuel global market share gains. and further accelerate financial performance.

Engine pipelines remain lean with U.S. outboard pipelines down 3% in the quarter versus prior year. Our Engine Parts and Accessories segment delivered its highest third quarter sales since 2020 as a result of robust boating participation and continued distribution share gains. A richer mix of higher-margin products, along with the impact of prior pricing actions drove operating margin expansion of 190 basis points to an outstanding 24.6%, one of the highest operating margins on record.

The team worked effectively to mitigate higher input costs with multiple operational efficiency actions. Just 1 example of Brunswick's ongoing enterprise-wide continuous improvement programs. Lance's rolling 12-month distribution share increased 120 basis points. and the business outperformed available industry benchmarks on profitability, workforce productivity and cash conversion. Navico Group delivered another quarter of continued performance improvement reflecting the team's focused execution and the leadership of its current President and incoming Brunswick CEO on Itinere.

Sales rose 6% in the quarter, with growth in all business lines fueled by OEM wins and well-received new product launches. Structural operating cost reductions also assisted in expanding operating margin by 140 basis points. despite significant input cost pressures, including from higher memory and commodity costs. During the quarter, we were excited to partner with Saks store on the debut of Simrad auto captain in its product line. Saks Store is the first independent and international OEM to integrate the system, but others are following quickly.

Our Boat segment grew both sales and operating margins with solid contributions from both Boat Group and Business Acceleration. Oak Group benefited from the resilience of its premium and core brands. pricing and mix, continued cost reduction actions and rationalization of the value product portfolio. Combined, these actions contributed to operating margin expansion of 160 basis points. despite the headwinds of inefficiencies associated with the closing of 2 production facilities, which will become a significant structural operating cost tailwind beginning in 2027.

Our third quarter and year-to-date global premium fiberglass and core best brand retail sales were flat to prior year, with weaker performance in value product lines. The latest SSI data for September year-to-date shows U.S. boat industry retail down approximately 4%, with Brunswick U.S. internal retail in line with the industry when adjusted for the rationalized value models, We continue to launch new boat models across our brands and our fast-growing Novan brand launched its latest model with C38 in the expanding global adventure category at the CAN show taking multiple orders at the event.

Lastly, the business acceleration portfolio continues to deliver growth and expanding margins led by Freedom Boat Club. Freedom captured an estimated 69% of the North American boat club market, up 4 percentage points as a number of its competitors faltered. Freedom's increasing global scale and analytics are also enabling significant structural efficiencies to be realized in its operations. Member trips were up 3% year-to-date, again highlighting the continued strong boating participation trends.

Moving now to our guidance. We thought it would be helpful to put our full year adjusted EPS guidance in perspective by reviewing how our outlook has progressed through the year. We started in January with full year EPS guidance midpoint of $4.10 compared with full year adjusted EPS of $3.27 in 2025. We raised the midpoint to $4.25 in April and again to $4.55 in July despite the tough economic and market conditions, and we're raising it again today to $4.65. That's approximately 13% above our initial outlook and an increase of more than 42% versus 2025.

Our Q3 overperformance was led by stronger gross margins which were driven by a larger mix towards premium products and higher-margin engine P&A products, together with improved operating efficiency and productivity as well as a slightly better effective tax rate. There was no material IEPA benefits in the quarter. The latest Tencent increase in our full year reflects our Q3 overperformance partially offset by anticipated headwinds and uncertainty in the fourth quarter.

Amongst the Q4 factors partially offsetting the Q3 overperformance, our additional material inflation versus our July expectations continued channel stocking caution as we enter the off season, some remaining uncertainty on IEPA refunds as well as continued high levels of economic trade and political uncertainty. We remain extremely excited about and committed to finishing the year strong, while maintaining the disciplined approach to guidance we've taken throughout the year. I'll now hand the call over to Ryan for additional detail on our financial performance.

Ryan Gwillim

Thank you, Dave, and good morning, everyone. Brunswick's third quarter performance came in ahead of expectations. with sales and earnings growth in each of our segments versus the third quarter of 2025. On a consolidated basis, sales were up 7%, reflecting steady OEM demand across the portfolio, pricing actions taken in previous periods, continued share gains and solid boating participation supporting our P&A and aftermarket businesses. Adjusted operating earnings were up 38% with adjusted operating margins of 10.1% expanding 230 basis points as the stronger sales, operational strength and efficiency across the enterprise; improved absorption on higher production, favorable mix and disciplined cost management, together with the lapping of last year's tariff impacts more than offset material and labor inflation and planned spending on product and technology initiatives. .

This resulted in adjusted EPS of $1.58, up 63% over last year, another outstanding result. Lastly, we generated $140 million of free cash flow in the quarter up 26% versus the third quarter of 2025, driven by the higher sales and prudent working capital management across the enterprise. On a year-to-date basis, sales were up 9%, driven by the same factors supporting the third quarter, while year-to-date adjusted operating earnings are up 25%. Adjusted operating margins expanded 100 basis points to 8.6%, and adjusted EPS was up 42% versus the first 9 months of 2025.

Free cash flow of $301 million is down versus prior year, due solely to the roughly $100 million year-over-year impact of the restatement of variable compensation. Absent that item, year-to-date free cash flow is well ahead of 2025, consistent with the sales growth we previously discussed. Moving to our segments. Propulsion delivered another strong quarter with sales up 7% versus the prior year on steady OEM demand in a low pipeline environment. Outboard engine sales were up 7%. And controls, rigging and propellers grew 9%.

Adjusted operating earnings were up 51% and margins expanded 350 basis points to 12%, showing the expected margin inflection we've been anticipating. This improvement resulted from the leverage on higher sales, favorable mix, improved absorption and reduced year-over-year tariff pressure offsetting continued planned product development investment and ongoing material frank and labor inflation.

We remain on track for full year propulsion margin expansion of more than 100 basis points. Turning to engine parts and accessories. Our aftermarket high-margin recurring revenue business delivered another quarter of growth with sales up 5% versus the prior year behind solid contributions from both products and distribution. Sustained for participation through the back half of the season, continued share gains in our global distribution business and disciplined commercial execution, drove broad-based growth across essentially all of our global retails.

Adjusted operating earnings were up 14% with adjusted operating margin of 24.6%, up 190 basis points versus prior year. That improvement reflects margin expansion from the leverage on higher sales and cost discipline, partially offset by higher commodity and other material input costs. Over to Navico Group, which delivered yet another quarter of sales growth and margin expansion. Sales were up 6%, with all 3 business lines contributing. OEM demand was the key driver as new product wins supported double-digit marine OEM growth, while retail and aftermarket channels remain steady.

Adjusted operating earnings rose 36% with adjusted operating margin expanding 140 basis points to 6.1%, resulting from the higher sales plus the cost actions we have been executing all year. Footprint consolidation and SKU rationalization continue to drive gross margin improvement with the resulting benefits more than offsetting memory and other material cost inflation. We continue to see encouraging traction from recent product launches and our second phase of enzymatic capacity came online in early October to support that demand.

With a strengthening OEM pipeline heading into model year '27, Navico Group remains on track to deliver full year adjusted operating margin expansion in excess of 200 basis points. Finally, our Boat segment delivered a 9% sales increase over the prior year, with growth in both boat sales and the business acceleration portfolio. Saltwater fishing led the went up 30%, with aluminum freshwater up 13% and business acceleration up 14%, more than offsetting a planned reduction in value offerings as part of our model rationalization plan.

Freedom Boat Club continued its growth journey contributing roughly 13% of segment sales. Segment adjusted operating earnings doubled with adjusted operating margin expanding 160 basis points to 3.6%. This improvement reflects the higher sales and favorable mix, together with ongoing manufacturing and sourcing cost savings programs, which continue to pay ahead of plan and are flowing through into better gross margins across the portfolio. As Dave said earlier, the even quarter, and we responded with targeted retail programs and additional cost discipline on head count -- and discretionary spending. Importantly, we maintained wholesale discipline. The dealer pipelines ended the quarter healthy and lean with mostly current model your product. which well positions the segment as we move into the fourth quarter and next year's currently sailing season.

My last slide shows our full year guidance. We are maintaining revenue guidance of $5.7 billion to $5.8 billion and adjusted operating margin guidance of approximately 8%, As Dave discussed earlier, we are raising adjusted EPS to approximately $4.65 as despite the dynamic operating environment -- we remain confident in our ability to drive sales and earnings growth to close out the year.

Our continued strong cash flow performance will enable us to meet our debt retirement target and progress our goal of lowering our net debt leverage to under 2x during the next year. Following recent Brunswick share price dislocation, we are increasing our repurchase target to exceed $80 million of repurchases for the full year with $75 million of those repurchases already complete. I will now pass the call back to Dave for concluding remarks.

David Foulkes

Thanks, Ryan. During the Q2 earnings call, we highlighted the record 15 boating industry top product awards we had recently received. But next never rest, and as we wrap up, I want to highlight some of our product launches, events and technology introductions from the third quarter. We had a strong presence at all the major European boat shows, including CAN, inTobo and Genoa, all of which serve to highlight the continued strength of our brands.

In addition to the introduction of the all-new Devan C38, we continue to build out our premium aluminum boat portfolio in the quarter. With the new lung tie, Harris Summit twin engine models and Princecraft Platinum 220. As always, these new models are powered by Mercury engines and equipped with Navico Group technology, another demonstration of the power of our enterprise synergies. Mercury also continued its rapid pace of innovation, adding the Dock feature to its joystick system, which makes holding position against the dock simpler and more intuitive and the new Revvick 16-inch right in Propeller model that extends our propeller offering for high horsepower applications.

And finally, Navico Group introduced the ECS 900, a light commercial and professional vessel applications and the new AI intelligent boating assistant highlighted at our recent investor and media events. We've now surpassed 100 enterprise awards for the fifth consecutive year, and we got there faster than ever before. which speaks to our momentum and the exceptional nature of our people, products and innovation.

A few highlights include Newsweek again naming Brunswick, 1 of America's most trustworthy companies. Having 7 of our female leaders received women making waves awards, which recognize women shaping the future of the marine industry and being recognized in the Ibex Innovation Awards new EPIC award category. Thank you again to all our talented Brunswick employees whose dedication makes this recognition possible. Before we turn to questions, I'd like to say a few words on the leadership transition we announced last month.

Leading Brunswick has been the greatest privilege of my professional life. I'm grateful to our employees, leadership team, Board and shareholders for your support and very proud of the marine powerhouse we built together. Preparing a successor is a central responsibility of the Brunswick Board and myself as Chairman and CEO, and we're extremely confident that Aine is the right leader for Brunswick's next chapter.

Aine brings 30 years of operating experience across marine, automotive and industrial businesses, with technical, financial, commercial depth game to Brunswick, ZF, TRW, Ingersoll Rand and Ford. Her McKenzie and Bain strategy experience or service of Mason wheels, Kellogg MVA and engineering degrees complements a record of delivering results and leading teams in multiple complex environments. Since joining Brunswick in 2020, Aine has turned strategy and technology into financial results. She led Boat Group through changing market conditions, launching new models and delivering strong performance.

As Navico Group President and Chief Technology Officer, She's broadened her enterprise perspective while driving market share gains, product innovation and operating improvements, leading to revenue growth and margin expansion. Our strategy, capital allocation priorities on long-term Investor Day targets remain unchanged. Aine and the team will continue to execute that strategy with a continued focus on driving shareholder returns. I'll work closely with Aine through year-end, ahead of a January effective data CEO, and we'll be on the road together in fourth quarter, meeting many of our shareholders.

As you will have seen, we've also already announced the appointment of talented experiences for the open roles on the leadership team created by One's appointment. I'm very excited about what Aine and the Brunswick can achieve in the future. That's the end of our prepared remarks. Note that Aine is present today in her current role as Navico Group President, to answer any of your questions on Navico Group but she will not take questions on other topics today. We'll now turn it back over to the operator to open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Anna Glaessgen at B. Riley Securities. And you may now your line and ask your question.

Preguntas y respuestas

Anna Glaessgen

First, I'd like to ask for a little bit more perspective on the material inflation we've seen over the past few months. Any perspective you can share on the movement to 4Q earnings in light of that versus internal expectations and perspective into 2027?

David Foulkes

Thank you for the question. Yes, we called out commodity inflation and kind of aluminum and copper, as you might expect, and also memory inflation. And obviously, we have a different effect in the P&L depending on when it rolls off the balance sheet versus what the exact spot price is. So we saw some significant increases through the year, and that will still roll off the balance sheet in Q4, but we are seeing stabilization now.

So we do anticipate a more stable environment as we can roll into 2027, which I think will be helpful for the first quarter of the year and hopefully, the full year. We've taken a lot of mitigation actions. Our scale really helps with that, hedging programs, we have a bigger buy on some of those areas that can help with getting good pricing. I think memory was called out by some other companies, but the reality for us is it only represents something like 2% of our COGS. So it's a pretty small portion of our COGS, but nevertheless, we have seen inflation. Aine, you might want to comment a bit more on that.

Aine Denari

Yes. No, that's right. It is about 2% of COGS for Navico. And we should also mention that, that is an inflationary fracture that we have had throughout the year this year. So it does not represent a headwind for us as we move into next year. And we, of course, are taking all the mitigation actions that Dave mentioned that includes value engineering, looking for alternate supply sources as well as taking other actions. So we're feeling pretty good about the vision we're in as we round out this year and move into next year.

Anna Glaessgen

Great. And I guess, one, while we have you here with Bob some more perspective on Navico transformation over the past few years and where it stands today. particularly, you mentioned on the call or it was mentioned that it benefited from some cost cutting this quarter. maybe share some perspective on the margin opportunity going ahead? Are there more cost cuts? Or is it mostly driven from gross margin expansion ahead.

Unknown Executive

Yes. No. And of course, you saw the strategic plan targets that we laid out in our Investor Day, and those certainly remain true. We certainly have a pretty good confidence in the about to continue to deliver those. I would say what's really driving things for Navico is a combination of the top line and bottom line. A lot of it really, honestly, is a top line and efficiency gains as we think about market share gains, new product launches, increasing content per vessel as we think about more complicated integrated systems that we are delivering.

We're also continue to conquest new OEMs, which is very helpful, both in the initial phase as well as then from an ongoing kind of stickiness phase and flow through to the aftermarket. So those are all things that are really driving the top line growth as well as the margin expansion. As you know, Navico Group, in particular, has some pretty strong leverage. On the efficiency side, we certainly have delivered a lot of operations efficiency gains. We have done several footprint consolidations over the last several years.

I think we're in a pretty good stable place there as it relates to our footprint. We have also done a lot of work on refining the org structure, refining the teams and we have been embedding AI and robotic process automation across the board to drive further efficiency. So that is how big drive the margin expansion, and we expect to see that to continue to drive the margin expansion as we move forward throughout the remaining stock on period.

Operator

Our next question comes from James Hardiman at Citi.

James Hardiman

First, I wanted to say Dave congrats on retirement. Thanks for all the time and the engagement with the investment community over the years. It's been a blast. And Aine, congrats on the CEO appointment. I'm excited to work more with you. Absolutely. So let's talk 4Q a little bit. Obviously, sizable beaten through, a lot of that we're giving back in 4Q. We talked about how the retail environment softened a little bit over the course of the quarter, maybe bridge sort of where you were in terms of fourth quarter thinking and where you are today?

How much of the implied 4Q reflects dealer ordering assumptions? How much of that is sort of inflation specific to that quarter. And then I don't know if there's any sort of tariff timing that we need to be considering in the context of 4Q.

Ryan Gwillim

James, it's Ryan. I'll start with this 1 and then Dave can follow through. So if you think about Q3, $0.20, maybe a little bit more of a beat, we passed half of it through. I would say the other half really is the majority of that is just material inflation that arose in the quarter that we didn't anticipate when we gave July guidance. I think Dave talked about the puts and takes there a second ago, so I won't repeat them. I think the fourth quarter is a relatively small quarter. And so as we think about ordering patterns that this could be a little variability there.

But all in all, the real change, the only real change from a numbers perspective, it is this material inflation. Otherwise, I think the commercial side will come in as we anticipated, the ordering side will be fine. And we can continue to see very good steadiness from all of our aftermarket business. So P&A from Aine's aftermarket and retail businesses as well, continue to be nice and steady. So I think that gives us some support on the bottom end with just a little bit of inflation kind of coming at us. Otherwise, really nothing has changed from a fundamental operation performance perspective, and I think we're going to end the year strong.

David Foulkes

Yes, I agree. And I wouldn't -- I don't think the softening of brand referred to is significantly going to be reflected in Q4. As softening continues to be in the value segment. 90% of our group profit is from our premium and core products, and they continue to hold up extremely well. And we're all -- a number of us adding to the Fort Lauderdale show right after this call. And just a heads up, Mercury share is up again and pretty significantly. So we're excited to be able to report that out a little bit later. .

So even in the fall shows, which obviously run through early Q4, we're seeing some nice early indicators. So I think we're seeing solid ordering from our OEM customers. This is the off-season, so it's more about stocking and certainly in the seasonal markets. But really, we're not seeing a lot of changes in wholesale ordering assets.

James Hardiman

Got it. And then as I think about 2026 coming into the year, 1 of the biggest sort of cards that you had to play that you had in your back pocket was that you had under ship channel pretty meaningfully in 2025. And so when you lap that, that was going to create or unleash a good amount of sort of hidden earnings power. I don't know that the setup is quite as beneficial from that perspective in 2027. And so how should we think about the setup for next year? Any breadcrumbs that you could give us that would help us understand obviously, the market is going to do what the market's going to do. It's volatile, but sort of what types of earnings tailwinds do you think that you can sort of lever to offset declines in the industry if we see that or sort of enhance your earnings power in, let's say, a flat demand environment.

David Foulkes

Yes, good question, James. I think 1 of the things we've continued to see on Exhibit really is a lot of discipline in pipelines. So we have, even through this year, continued to undership across pretty much every part of our business. Obviously, we noted that put pipelines are down, again, engine pipelines are down again and down pretty significantly over the past couple of years. So we still have some of the wholesale retail rebalancing. That will be a tailwind for us as we enter 2027. .

But we do have a lot of exciting other tailwinds. If you think on the product side, we have 3 new Mercury outboards launching, continue to gain repower share. We continued to gain share in wholesale distribution. Navico Group is launching some very exciting new products at the end of this year and into early next year. So on the product momentum side, we have a lot going for us and then on the cost side, we have some other tailwinds, for example, the headwind that our book groups saw this year from the footprint consolidation will reverse as we go into '27 and be a nice tailwind for us.

So I think we have a continued -- some continued benefit from the restocking cycle, a lot of product-related market share gain opportunities as well as some pretty significant and material and realizable cost efficiencies again going into the year. And it's been really nice to see that our premium and core brands are really holding up very well. Mercury's share is strong. I mentioned upflows. It was -- when you think about where we are in terms of market position, on work propulsion, on marine distribution, now we have Freedom Boat Club with a commanding share of the boat club market, 70% of the market. I mean I think the franchise is pretty good shape for 2027.

James Hardiman

And just to clarify, you do or don't think that this inflation that we've seen in the last couple of months is going to be a meaningful headwind for 2027?

David Foulkes

Well, of course, you never exactly now, but I would say that we think that we have taken a lot of the pain in the second half of 2026. And so as we look at on a kind of 2026 second half into 2027 first half, we think we've taken the bulk of the pain on that basis. .

Unknown Executive

Yes. And James, just to put it very finely. We don't see any reason sitting here today that '27 doesn't track the sales and operating leverage targets that we just laid out in the strategic plan. So sales growth in the 5% to 8%, operating leverage of 20% to 25%. We are very confident we can deliver that. And we also have benefits from the capital strategy work that we've done this year, both on continuing to buy our shares and being more aggressive on that in the third quarter and paying down debt. So more to come in January, but folks should not be surprised that '27 is going to continue the glide path of the strategic plan that we just laid out.

Operator

Our next question comes from Scott Stember at ROTH MKN.

Scott Stember

Last quarter, you gave some data which suggested that the -- you're not seeing any meaningful impact from fuel costs going up, notably on the usage side. And obviously, we saw that in the strong results in Engine P&A. Did you see anything in the quarter as it accelerated that changed that narrative?

David Foulkes

No, Scott, we don't. We continue to see -- obviously, we're entering a period where the seasonal markets are going to be shut down over the next couple of months. But in the nonseasonal markets, we don't really see any evidence of fuel prices affecting the kind of proxies that we have for boating participation things like Freedom, Boat club trips. I think the interesting thing I've said before but interesting -- if you could design and experiment to isolate the impact of fuel prices on boats, and it would be freedom boat club because other than the dining payment and monthly cues, it's basically the only variable and we don't see it affecting year-over-year trips..

In fact, year-over-year, trips are up. And certainly, as a proxy, our P&A performance, distribution and products continues to be extremely strong. Obviously, we had a really strong Q3 here. So the answer is no. We don't see any evidence of abatements or slowdown in participation.

Scott Stember

Got it. And then my next question was on Freedom. Are you seeing any folks that have been members over the last few years that have decided to trade up and become official boat members buying a Brunswick boat? Or is right now really proving the worth of freedom where people just -- the ease and the lower cost really proves its worth.

David Foulkes

Yes. I think generally, that is the case that I think Freedom attracts people coming into boating and people who would exit both ownership if they didn't have an alternative like Freedom available, I do think it's very interesting to see if you provide despite whatever trends you look at in new boat sales, if you provide people with a really compelling, convenient value proposition they will go through. And I think that is what Freedom is but operating something like Freedom is not just about providing a compelling proposition like that.

It's also being extremely operationally efficient. How do you think about customer lifetime value, how do you think about boat lifetime value and what you see with Freedom for us is not only a compelling consumer proposition, but also an extremely well-oiled machine behind it, that is expanding margins, not just domestically but globally. And what we're seeing is we're growing share because we provide the best experience. And the other smaller participants in the market who are generally not doing as well and some are honestly not doing well at all, don't have our scale, don't have our analytics, don't provide a consistent value proposition for the consumer.

So we're very excited about Freedom. We did actually put in place some programs that allow people to use a portion of the entrance speed to Freedom as a credit to enter boating. We have seen some uptake in that. So we are experimenting a bit with and a cross-sell, upsell between Freedom and our boat brands, but I would say predominantly people are pretty comfortable in Freedom.

Operator

Our next question comes from Tristan Thomas Martin at BMO Capital Markets.

Tristan Thomas-Martin

Just a question a different way. How are you -- how does like-for-like pricing going to be on the boat side and also on the upward engine side next year?

David Foulkes

I think our pricing on the boat side this year I would say we took moderate pricing. I don't know -- I think we were in the 3% to 4% typically across product line. One of the things that has really helped us, I think, is our ability to absorb commodity costs, some of our competitors, particularly on the aluminum side to larger pricing actions, which is certainly helpful for us. I don't know exactly, but based on the input costs, discussion that we recently had, I would expect similar levels of price increases next year.

On the outboard engine side, we just took a couple of points of pricing really, the competition is not taking a lot of pricing. either. So I think given our market position, and the benefits we have from premium pricing and increased absorption. I think we have some flexibility, but I would imagine modest pricing on the output side as well.

Unknown Executive

And maybe just 2 things. If you see ASPs growing, a big component of that is just the mix shift to premium and less sales of value products. So don't treat or think about that as pure price. The other thing to remind yourself of is we continue to support our dealer networks with discounting and our discounting at the retail level to ensure the pipeline remains lean and fresh. And so the price that is actually being paid by our consumer may be even less than that it increased just because we are opting them along the way. And that's something that we had anticipated discounting to be actually down this year.

But in actuality, it's flat, slightly up and a bit of that is related to the wholesale finance that we use and help our dealers with on the floor plan side, but a chunk of that is still retail support that we're getting our dealers.

Tristan Thomas-Martin

Okay. And then just a quick follow-up. You mentioned mix. Is there a further value both rationalization next year?

David Foulkes

I think there's some more to be done. and we continue to evaluate the portfolio in that regard. And I think kind of prudently reshape it towards the biggest value pools. It's not as simple as he's premium and he's value and trim value. There are some parts of the market that we're really going after like the expedition of venture category, which is more on the premium side. So you'll see of new products in that space. But yes, I would expect to see modest additional rationalization of the value part of the portfolio. really on the fiber side obviously.

Operator

Our next question comes from Craig Kennison at Baird.

Unknown Analyst

Sorry about that. I'm Noel dog with the new trade here. Can you hear me? I just want to echo James' comments to you and also to you on now. It's going to be a pleasure to work with you as well. I guess I wanted to ask about Navico and to me, it feels like 1 of the biggest opportunities you have that's still within your control to expand margin and then drive better profitability. And I wonder if you just maybe size the top 2 or 3 drivers to the margin expansion that you see? And help us understand the cadence of that as well. .

Aine Denari

Yes. So I think a good chunk of the margin expansion here is really around kind of the new product vitality. So as we launch new products, they typically are launching with higher margin profiles. And as you know, especially in the electronics space, the life cycle is quite short. And so the cadence of new product refreshes and new product launches is quite quick. And so that helps drive the margin expansion. Another key element would be this increasing content per vessel concept. So as we're launching more complicated integrated systems, that, by nature, drives up the -- our share of wallet on every boat that we sell.

And then I would probably also call out the increasing aftermarket component. The more we're penetrated on the OEM side, the more that flows through to increasing aftermarket sales and over the life of the vessel. And of course, people will upgrade their electronics and their paramount systems for many times over the life of a vessel hull and that helps drive up our margin profile as well. and of course, operational efficiency. And as I mentioned earlier, the role of artificial intelligence as we think about things like our supply chain and our customer service processes are also certainly enabling us to increase efficiency and drive down the cost structure growth, which helps improve the margin profile also.

Unknown Executive

And I think, Greg, Aine has done a fantastic job. I would -- we talked a bit earlier about the physical footprint consolidation, but that is a precursor to digital operations consolidation as well. So you'll see a big emphasis in that area that can yield efficiency and I know it's kind of incumbent on everybody to say something about AI in a call. But I would tell you, it is really yielding some significant efficiencies for us now, and we have moved from kind of targeted use cases, low-hanging fruit, if you like, to fundamentally reshaping a lot of our end-to-end processes, and that is going to yield significant benefits for Navico Group and the Hall enterprise. So we really are very excited about that possibility as well.

Operator

next question comes from Joseph Altobello at Raymond James.

Joseph Altobello

Dave, best of luck. Congratulations Aine, saying to you, looking forward to working with you as well. So question on the industry. Given the downturn or the duration of this downturn we've experienced, just curious how your OEM and dealer partners are thinking about the year ahead? Are they generally taking a wait-and-see approach on retail given we've had some optimism. It seems like every January for the last 5 years, and it hasn't panned out. So I'm just curious how they're thinking about 2027. .

David Foulkes

Yes, I would say that the dealers are in pretty good spirits. We mentioned in on -- in the slide deck and possibly in the release as well that more than 50% of our dealers have more than 50% of the credit line still available. So clearly, we are seeing no distress in amongst our dealers. I think they are behaving fractionally. I think that they have learned over time. You mentioned it's -- it's been a period for us to kind of rethink how we approach pipelines and balance and make sure we don't try and kind of take profit over the short term at the expense of the long term.

So I think they're generally behaving extremely well. I think they're very comfortable with that. I think the other thing, Joe, is thinking about -- I know it's important because there's an industry data point, but the overall unit sale -- retail sales is really a very broad and measure of new boat sales and does not reflect where the real profit pools are over time, and we are reshaping towards those profit pool. It's almost like Ferrari's performance is not reflected in whether we -- the U.S. industry is 16 million units or 15 million units.

You have to go to where the profit pools are and growing those pools and whether it's engines or premium and coal boats or electronics or even shared access, we are finding and commanding the major profit pools. So this is a bit of a morphing of -- and to some extent, a bit of decoupling, I think, of our business performance over the long term from that single number unit sales, I think you'll see that continue over time.

Operator

Thank you. This completes the allotted time for questions. I will now turn the call back over to Dave for any closing remarks. .

Unknown Executive

Well, before we go back to Dave, I did want to take a moment to recognize and thank Dave for his outstanding tenure at Brunswick, 19 years in total, the last 8 years as our CEO. And Dave, this is our 26th earnings call together, and I want to thank you for the outstanding leadership, partnership in front that you have provided to me, the rest of the Brunswick leadership team, and the over 14,000 Brunswick global employees, you have supported and led during your tenure. Congratulations on your retirement. You will be missed, but your legacy will continue. And lastly, congratulations to Aine Denari, who will assume the CEO role starting January 1, Aine, we all look forward to working with you to execute our strategic plans while continuing to deliver strong shareholder value.

And I personally look forward to our first call together in Jan. Congrats again.

David Foulkes

Thank you very much, Brian. That was very meaningful. Thank you very much. Thank you to Ryan. Thank you to Steve Will. Thanks to Profit and their teams who have done a fantastic job referring for this call and in previous calls, and I'll follow-up on investor calls and analyst calls that you guys work on, you do a fantastic job. Thank you. I am pleased that my final call as a beat and race call that -- we've got a few of those in recent history, but it's always nice to see that. It's nice to lead the business with such strong momentum. and in the hands of such an exceptional leadership team, congrats Aine. I am looking forward to Brunswick's success in the future. Thank you all very much, indeed.

Operator

Thank you for joining the Brunswick's Corporation's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect. Thank you.