Conferencia de resultados de Flowers Foods (FLO) del Q2 del FY2026: estabilización en el Q4 y ahorro de costos

Flowers Foods (NYSE: FLO) declaró que sus resultados del segundo trimestre fiscal de 2026 estuvieron por debajo de las expectativas de la dirección, ya que la demanda de pan fresco envasado se mantuvo bajo presión. La empresa prevé caídas interanuales de las ventas en el tercer trimestre antes de una mayor estabilización en el cuarto trimestre.

Puntos clave

• El volumen unitario de pan fresco disminuyó un 9,5% en el segundo trimestre, mientras que la fijación de precios ayudó a respaldar el margen bruto a pesar del menor apalancamiento de los costes fijos.
• La dirección prevé que las ventas del tercer trimestre caigan en comparación con el año anterior, mientras que los resultados del cuarto trimestre se estabilizarán a medida que aumente la captación de nuevos negocios y se atenúen las comparativas de precios con el ejercicio anterior.
• Flowers Foods está acelerando la innovación en medios moldes, masa madre, productos con proteínas y fibra para solucionar las carencias de su cartera y adaptarse a las cambiantes preferencias de los consumidores.
• La empresa ha recortado aproximadamente 200 millones de dólares en costes a lo largo de los últimos años y prevé que las recientes medidas de reestructuración aporten un impulso favorable de aproximadamente 20 millones de dólares de cara al ejercicio fiscal 2027.
• La captación de nuevos negocios se distribuye tanto en el canal de consumo fuera del hogar (Away-from-Home) como en el de venta al por menor de marca, esperándose algunas contribuciones en el tercer trimestre y un despliegue más completo en el cuarto trimestre.
• La dirección señaló que la revisión integral formal ha concluido y que la empresa ha comenzado a ejecutar sus recomendaciones en materia de innovación, enfoque y ejecución en tienda.

Datos financieros y operativos clave

Rendimiento empresarial y operativo

La categoría de pan fresco envasado siguió presentando un panorama complejo debido a la presión sobre los presupuestos familiares, los cambios en las preferencias de los consumidores y una continua actividad competitiva. La dirección indicó que algunos consumidores optaron por marcas blancas y productos de menor precio, pero considera que las carencias de la cartera constituyen un factor de mayor relevancia en el rendimiento relativo de Flowers Foods.

La empresa identificó una baja penetración en medios moldes, masa madre, proteínas, fibra y otros atributos funcionales. Está previsto que los nuevos productos de estas áreas lleguen al mercado durante la segunda mitad del ejercicio fiscal 2026 y hasta la primavera de 2027.

Nature’s Own se volvió a lanzar varios meses antes de la conferencia telefónica. La dirección afirmó que los comentarios de los clientes y en redes sociales habían sido alentadores, pero que era demasiado pronto para determinar el impacto financiero de la campaña.

En cuanto a Dave’s Killer Bread, la dirección atribuyó parte de la presión sobre el volumen al crecimiento de la masa madre y a cierta sensibilidad a los precios. DKB ofrece actualmente masa madre únicamente en la costa oeste. Se espera que el apoyo de marketing se normalice durante el resto del año tras la campaña anterior Rock Your Reset y el enfoque previsto en las actividades de la vuelta al cole.

Flowers Foods también continúa revisando su estrategia de precios y promociones. La dirección enfatizó que el precio es solo una palanca, junto con la productividad, la arquitectura de precios y formatos, y la innovación de productos.

Perspectivas de la dirección

La dirección prevé que las ventas generales caigan interanualmente en el tercer trimestre. Anticipa una mayor estabilización en el cuarto trimestre a medida que la captación de nuevos negocios se consolide más plenamente, la elasticidad de los precios se suavice en comparación con el año anterior y las inversiones de marketing de Nature’s Own ganen tracción.

La mejora prevista se distribuye de forma equilibrada entre el canal de consumo fuera del hogar y el canal minorista de marca. Se prevé que algunos de los nuevos negocios comiencen a contribuir en el tercer trimestre, con beneficios adicionales en el cuarto trimestre.

La mayoría de las materias primas para el resto del ejercicio fiscal 2026 están totalmente cubiertas. La exposición restante incluye el aceite, el diésel y los costes indirectos de las resinas, que afectan principalmente a los envases. La dirección afirmó que las perspectivas actuales ya incorporan estas presiones.

Para el ejercicio fiscal 2027, el proceso de planificación sigue en marcha. La dirección señaló que los índices de inflación han aumentado en varias categorías de insumos y prevé hacer frente a la presión mediante la productividad, la arquitectura de precios y formatos, y la innovación, en lugar de depender únicamente de los precios.

Riesgos y factores a seguir

• Continua debilidad en la demanda de pan fresco envasado y presión sobre los presupuestos familiares.
• Competencia continua, intensidad promocional y cambio hacia productos de marca blanca o de menor precio.
• Baja penetración de la cartera en formatos de mayor crecimiento como masa madre, medios moldes y panes funcionales.
• Menores volúmenes de producción que generan una menor absorción de costes fijos en toda la red de panaderías.
• Posible inflación en el ejercicio fiscal 2027 en materias primas, combustible, resina e insumos relacionados con el envasado.
• Riesgo de ejecución en el lanzamiento de nuevos productos, el despliegue de nuevos negocios y el relanzamiento de Nature’s Own.

Aspectos destacados de la sesión de preguntas y respuestas de los analistas

Los analistas se centraron en si Flowers Foods podría cumplir con la mejora secuencial prevista en sus perspectivas para el segundo semestre. La dirección citó tres factores principales: la captación de nuevos negocios, el ahorro de costes adicional y la innovación de productos. Se prevé que la mejora se concentre en el cuarto trimestre en lugar del tercero.

En cuanto a los márgenes, el director financiero señaló que la fijación de precios fue la razón principal por la que el margen bruto se mantuvo a pesar del descenso del 9,5% en el volumen de pan fresco. Los ahorros por reestructuración y la productividad en las panaderías también contribuyeron, aunque la dirección reconoció que lograr nuevos aumentos de eficiencia resulta más difícil cuando caen los volúmenes.

Al ser preguntada por la inflación futura, la dirección señaló que los precios podrían tener menos flexibilidad que durante el ciclo de materias primas de 2022. Por lo tanto, la empresa prevé apoyarse en una combinación más amplia de productividad, cambios en la cartera y arquitectura de precios y formatos. La optimización de la red sigue en revisión, pero es más compleja y requiere más tiempo de ejecución.

Transcripción completa de la llamada de resultados

Transcripción completa de la conferencia de resultados

Comentarios de la dirección

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Flowers Foods Second Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, J.T. Rieck, Executive Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

J. Rieck

Good morning. I hope everyone had the opportunity to review our earnings release, listen to our prepared remarks and view the slide presentation that were all posted earlier on our Investor Relations website. After today's Q&A session, we will also post an audio replay of this call. Please note that in this Q&A session, we may make forward-looking statements about the company's performance.

Although we believe these statements to be reasonable, they are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. In addition to what you hear in these remarks, important factors relating to Flowers Foods business are fully detailed in our SEC filings. We also provide non-GAAP financial measures for which disclosure and reconciliations are provided in the earnings release and at the end of the slide presentation on our website. Joining me today are Ryals McMullian, Chairman and CEO; and Anthony Scaglione, our CFO.

Ryals, I'll turn it over to you.

A. McMullian

Okay. Good morning, everybody. As noted in our prepared remarks, our second quarter results did not meet our expectations. The fresh packaged bread category remained challenging, reflecting pressure on household budgets, shifting consumer preferences and sustained competitive activity. Against this backdrop, we're accelerating initiatives to better align our resources and value proposition with where the market is heading.

This includes advancing innovation in smaller formats, sourdough and protein, improving our in-store execution, pursuing new business and continuing to invest behind our leading brands. As the Nature's Own relaunch, new business wins and innovation initiatives build momentum, we expect them to support greater stability and improved performance. We have work to do, but we remain confident in our strategy, our brands and the actions that we are taking.

Shannon, we can go ahead and open up for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our first question comes from the line of Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

Preguntas y respuestas

Stephen Robert Powers

Ryals, maybe we can pick up a bit where you left off in the intro. I mean if I think about the implied performance in your updated guidance for the back half, even at the low end, it seems to imply some acceleration and some improvement certainly versus the exit rate of consumption that we saw coming out of 2Q. So maybe a bit more detail on the building blocks that you see to create that sequential improvement because it doesn't sound like you're expecting the category to improve. It sounds like you're expecting your own standing versus the category to improve. So which of the initiatives are expected to be the most impactful? And I guess, a little bit of how quickly we should expect them to manifest over the remainder of the year?

A. McMullian

Okay. Thanks, Steve. A few things, and I'll let Anthony chime in here as well in terms of guidance. But I would call out 3 primary factors to address the question you asked. One is we do have some pretty significant new business wins that are coming on in the back half. In addition to that, we took additional cost savings measures that will benefit the back half. And that's in addition to the roughly $200 million we've taken out of the business over the last several years.

And I'd also call out innovation, which is a particularly important factor when you think about where the category is going, the speed of the shift in consumer preferences, frankly, got a little bit ahead of our innovation pipeline. But the good news is we have those things coming to fill those gaps in our offerings, whether you're thinking about protein, half loaves, sourdough, et cetera, all that's coming in the back half and then as we move into the spring of next year. Anthony, anything you want to add?

Diego Scaglione

No, I think you covered it. I would say, Steve, if you look at it for the back half, a little skewed. We expect some year-over-year declines in Q3, but then normalization for all the factors that Ryals mentioned related to the new business wins, reduced elasticities as we're lapping prior year pricing in Q4 and a bit of stabilization in Nature's Own from our marketing investments continue to take hold.

Stephen Robert Powers

Great. Maybe a little bit, if you could, a little bit more color. It sounds like you expect improvement both across the branded retail business and the other segment where I would expect those new business wins to exist. So maybe a little bit more color as to where you see -- which side of the business you see more improvement? And then, yes, I'd love a little bit more color on what you're seeing with the Nature's Own relaunch and kind of reasons for optimism with that.

Diego Scaglione

So Steve, I think from the way we're looking at it, it's really split between our Away-from-Home business as well as our retail branded business. So I would say we're seeing good opportunities and realization in both those areas, the timing of which some of it is going to come in Q3 and some of it will come in Q4. So it's balanced wins across the portfolio.

A. McMullian

And Steve, just to address your question on the Nature's Own relaunch. Recall, we just started this a couple of months ago. I would say it's going well. It's a little bit too early to see the actual results read through, but we're getting really good feedback from customers, social media, et cetera. So there's some early indicators that it will be a successful campaign. But I think we've got to give it -- as I said on the last call, we're going to have to give it a little bit more time for it to read through. That said, we do feel really good about the campaign and where we're headed with it.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Scott Marks with Jefferies.

Scott Marks

First thing I wanted to ask about, you noted in the prepared remarks, rising competition, rising promotional intensity. Obviously, you guys took some pricing earlier in the year with the expectation that you might see competitors follow, and it doesn't sound like that's happened quite yet. So just wondering if you can kind of give us an update on your thoughts around the pricing dynamics in the category and where you are? And any thoughts of changes to some of the actions you've taken to maintain maybe more competitiveness versus peers in traditional.

A. McMullian

Sure. I'll take a stab at that first. I think it's important to remember that the dynamics in the category are about a lot more than price. I think in certain segments of the portfolio that may be a factor. And as we noted in the prepared remarks, we're taking a pretty intensive review of our pricing and promotional strategy. However, it is more than just price. And I would point more to consumer preference shifts. Certainly, there has been some amount of trade down to private label and lower-priced items.

But I think the bigger factor, at least in our performance relative to the category has to do with those gaps in our portfolio, the underpenetration in half loaves, sourdough, protein fiber, some of these more functional attributes that consumers are looking for. And so that's where our primary focus is. That is not to say that we're ignoring the price equation. We are taking a hard look at that. And my initial thesis is there probably are some pockets of the portfolio where that's a factor, but I don't think it's the overall driving force of our performance.

Scott Marks

Appreciate the thoughts there. And then maybe there are some comments in the prepared remarks, I think, from Anthony about 2027 seeing some inflationary costs potentially ticking up, notably from commodity and fuel exposure. So just wondering if you can give us an update on where you're seeing inflation right now, how you're thinking about the exit rate in '26? And then maybe what you're assuming at this point for '27 as well as any other color you can share about '27 to help us frame your thinking.

Diego Scaglione

Sure. Sure, Scott. Let me take it in 2 parts. As we mentioned in Q1, most of our commodities for the balance of this year are fully hedged. We had some exposure, which I alluded to in oil and diesel and indirectly in resin, and that's primarily in our packaging area. So our current guide didn't change because we saw added pressure from a commodity perspective. We assume that pressure in Q1, and it hasn't really changed materially from where we were back in Q1. As I pivot to '27, we're still in the middle of our planning process for fiscal '27.

So I can't provide further color on that in isolation. To Ryals point, input costs are just one of many variables that we have to factor as it relates to price mix and the architecture and new innovation. So I can't look at it in isolation. That being said, overall inflation has gone up in many of our categories from a pricing index perspective is something that we need to definitely address as we look at '27 and the exit velocity, as you mentioned, coming out of '26. It's something we're working to address going forward. And as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, more to come. But at this point, that's all we could say as it relates to '27.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jim Salera with Stephens.

James Salera

I wanted to follow up on your commentary to Steve and Scott's questions there. If I look back to 2022, that was, I think, the last time we had kind of a significant commodity cycle. And if my model serves me correct, net price/mix across the business was up kind of mid-teens in 2022, which was a big factor in helping to offset that. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it sounds like there's maybe not as much flexibility on a go-forward basis around pricing given some of the competitive dynamics. So could you just walk us through what other levers you might have in the business to help offset that commodity inflation that we're seeing and kind of anticipating to continue to roll through in 2027?

Diego Scaglione

Yes. Let me start on that, Jim. I would say, clearly, we have to look at productivity measures, which is part of our -- every annual process and throughout the year, we're looking at ways to be more efficient in the bakeries in the network, et cetera. We took action coming out of Q1 when we saw softness on the top line that will accrue from a tailwind perspective as we exit 2026 into 2027. And as we said on the prepared remarks, that's roughly around the $20 million tailwind we'll have going into 2027. The other area is going to be the price pack architecture.

As Ryals mentioned, coming together with new products around small loaves, bring to market innovation in sourdough, areas where the consumer has headed and where the consumer is, we're probably underpenetrated on a portfolio basis. We have great products coming to market in the near term, but we're probably underpenetrated today. So when we look at those factors gives us confidence that, yes, price probably is not going to be the only lever to overcome the inflation. And as I mentioned earlier, a lot more work to do around that as we continue the '27 planning process.

James Salera

My follow-up question is on DKB. In the prepared remarks, you guys touched on marketing pullback there. I would just love some more commentary around -- is that kind of a temporary reshift where maybe other brands need some more support? Are you guys reworking the marketing plan there? Did it shift kind of within the portfolio, maybe towards some of the innovation versus kind of the core fresh bread offering? Any thoughts there would be great.

A. McMullian

Yes, Jim, it's temporary. I mean it's the way we laid out the cadence of our marketing and promo spend this year. So we focused a lot at the beginning of the year with -- you may recall the Rock Your Reset campaign that we did with DKB. And then also, to your point, also a focus on back-to-school. And so we should see more normalized levels of promo and marketing spend with DKB for the balance of the year.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our next question comes from the line of Mitchell Pinheiro with Sturdivant & Co.

Mitchell Pinheiro

I was looking at your fresh bread volume decline, which was 9.5%, and that's a big number. But I was surprised at how well the gross margin held up despite the unit volume decline in fresh bread. How can you -- how do you manage that?

Diego Scaglione

Mitch, this is Anthony. I mean, clearly, price had a big contributor in the price/mix. From a volume decline. So our pricing definitely was a positive contributor as it relates to overall. But as we look forward into the earlier comments, there's other variables that we are looking towards as we think about the balance of this year in '27 and price pack architecture, one that I mentioned earlier. But price was definitely the contributing factor to answer your question.

Mitchell Pinheiro

And so sort of negative fixed asset leverage, you've been able to manage that? Or how should we think about that?

Diego Scaglione

Yes. So from -- obviously, the restructuring had some cost out in COGS. We've had good productivity as it relates to the in bakery network. But clearly, that's our highest fixed cost. And while we're looking at network optimization, that is more complicated and takes much longer to execute. But we're clearly constantly looking at ways to be more efficient within the 4 walls of our bakery and our network, and that drove some benefit, but that becomes harder and harder with the volume declines. So as you can imagine, that's something that we're looking at and continue to look at as ways to optimize going forward.

Mitchell Pinheiro

Okay. And then as you look at the third quarter, do you expect volume declines to moderate?

Diego Scaglione

Yes, we don't break that out. As I mentioned, we expect Q3 year-on-year to be down from an overall sales perspective. So that's going to be price and volume based and then Q4 to have a little bit more stabilization as the new wins get more fully ramped. That's probably the most color I can give you in terms of the near term.

Mitchell Pinheiro

Okay. And then I guess 2 more questions. One with Dave's Killer Bread. You mentioned that consumer -- shifts in consumer preferences as a reason that helped pressure the unit volume decline. What are you referring to?

A. McMullian

Yes. Mitch, it's Ryals. Mostly, we think that it's the growth of sourdough. It's pretty remarkable actually. I mean that subsegment of the category has already grown to be a $1.3 billion subcategory. So it's been pretty tremendous growth. And in DKB, we only have sourdough on the West Coast currently. But as we mentioned earlier in the innovation pipeline, we have [indiscernible] for all that. I would say that is certainly one area and probably at least some amount of price sensitivity relative to Dave's. But I don't -- as I said earlier, I don't think it's all price. It's a combination of price for some consumers, but also offering and product attributes that are driving some of that decline.

Mitchell Pinheiro

Okay. And then just final question is just where do we stand with the comprehensive review? Where are we in that process? Are we close to the end? Is this a continuous improvement, comprehensive review? Can you shed a little light on that?

A. McMullian

Yes. Well, I think we're always in the mode of continuous improvement. But in terms of the formal initiative of the comprehensive review, yes, we're finished with that and beginning to execute on it. So a lot of the things we've talked about today, whether it's innovation or focus or better execution, all of those are folded in and are the result of that comprehensive review.

Operator

And I'm currently showing no further questions at this time. I'd now like to hand the call back over to Ryals McMullian for closing remarks.

A. McMullian

Okay. Great. Thank you, Shannon. I just want to thank everybody for taking time today and joining us for questions. We very much appreciate your interest and support of our company. And as always, we look forward to speaking with you again next quarter. Take care.

Operator

This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.