APC Q3 2026 Earnings Call: EBITDA-Wachstum, höhere Prognose und USPP-Deal

Wichtigste Erkenntnisse

• Die ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC) wies für das dritte Quartal 2026 einen Nettogewinn von 13,3 Millionen US-Dollar aus, verglichen mit 10,1 Millionen US-Dollar im Vorjahreszeitraum.
• Das bereinigte EBITDA stieg im Jahresvergleich um 9,4 % auf 41,0 Millionen US-Dollar, während der Discretionary Cashflow um 22 % auf 32,3 Millionen US-Dollar zulegte.
• Höhere Kraftstoffmargen und sonstige Erlöse glichen das geringere Absatzvolumen infolge der hohen Kraftstoffpreise mehr als aus. Der Großhandelsabsatz in Gallonen ging um 4,3 % zurück, der Deckungsbeitrag aus dem Kraftstoffgroßhandel stieg jedoch um 6,6 %.
• Die Unternehmensführung hob ihre Prognose für das bereinigte EBITDA im Gesamtjahr 2026 auf 156 bis 157 Millionen US-Dollar an und verwies auf die bisherige Jahresentwicklung sowie die Fortschritte beim Abschluss der Übernahme von U.S. Petroleum Partners.
• USPP soll voraussichtlich rund 30 Millionen US-Dollar zum annualisierten bereinigten EBITDA beisteuern und das jährliche Volumen über rund 400 Händlerstandorte um etwa 280 Millionen Gallonen steigern. Der Abschluss wird weiterhin für das vierte Quartal des Geschäftsjahres 2026 angestrebt.
• Der Verwaltungsrat beschloss eine Quartalsdividende von 0,50 US-Dollar je Aktie, was dem von APC kommunizierten annualisierten Ziel für 2026 von 2,00 US-Dollar je Aktie entspricht.

Wichtige Finanzkennzahlen

Zum 30. September 2026 standen APC rund 705 Millionen US-Dollar im Rahmen ihrer Kreditlinien zur Verfügung. Die Nettoverschuldung belief sich auf 338,4 Millionen US-Dollar, und das Verhältnis von Nettoverschuldung zu bereinigtem EBITDA betrug 2,2x. Der durchschnittliche Zinssatz für Kredite unter der Kreditlinie von Capital One lag zum Quartalsende bei rund 6 %.

Geschäfts- und operative Entwicklung

Das operative Ergebnis im Großhandel stieg um 7 % auf 25,8 Millionen US-Dollar. Der Rückgang der Gallonenzahl wurde durch stärkere Mischmargen mehr als ausgeglichen, was teilweise auf höhere Skonti infolge der gestiegenen Kraftstoffkosten zurückzuführen war. Zusätzliche Volumina von Händlerstandorten, die über das „Dealerization“-Programm der ARKO Corp. hinzukamen, federten die allgemeine Nachfrageschwäche teilweise ab.

Das operative Ergebnis im Segment Flottenbetankung stieg um 8,9 % auf 13,3 Millionen US-Dollar, getragen von höheren Kraftstoffmargen. Das Management gab an, dass rund 80 % des Segmentvolumens auf Diesel entfallen und die Nachfrage gewerblicher Kunden relativ stabil blieb, obwohl die Dieselpreise im September über 6,50 US-Dollar lagen.

APC nahm im Jahr 2026 sieben Cardlock-Standorte in Betrieb und verfügte über 16 Standorte in verschiedenen Planungs- und Entwicklungsphasen. Das Unternehmen strebt weiterhin jährlich 20 neue Cardlock-Stationen an, bei Renditen im mittleren bis oberen Zehner-Prozentbereich und Baukosten von maximal rund 2 Millionen US-Dollar pro Standort.

Die geplante Übernahme von USPP würde die Präsenz von APC in der Region der Großen Seen ausbauen. Neben Händlerstandorten und Kraftstoffvolumen soll die Transaktion voraussichtlich Terminals in Novi (Michigan) und Toledo (Ohio) sowie eine Transportflotte umfassen, die mehr als 80 % des von USPP vertriebenen Volumens transportiert. Das Management erklärte, dass die hinzugewonnenen Mengen das rollierende 12-Monats-Volumen von APC zum 30. September 2026 um rund 14 % steigern würden.

Unternehmensprognose

APC hob die Prognose für das bereinigte EBITDA im Gesamtjahr 2026 auf 156 bis 157 Millionen US-Dollar an. Das Management führte die Anhebung auf die Ergebnisse der ersten neun Monate, den Ausblick auf das restliche Jahr und die kontinuierlichen Fortschritte beim Abschluss der USPP-Übernahme zurück.

Das Unternehmen rechnet mit dem Vollzug der USPP-Transaktion im vierten Quartal des Geschäftsjahres 2026. Das Management erklärte, die Akquisition werde voraussichtlich rund 30 Millionen US-Dollar an annualisiertem bereinigtem EBITDA mit einer hohen Cashflow-Konversionsrate in den Discretionary Cashflow einbringen, der Abschluss stehe jedoch noch aus.

Risiken und wichtige Beobachtungspunkte

• Die hohen Benzin- und Dieselpreise haben den Kraftstoffverbrauch gedämpft und den Bedarf an Betriebskapital erhöht, wenngleich höhere Skonti die Margen stützten.
• Das Management erwartet, dass eventuell sinkende Kraftstoffpreise den Bedarf an Betriebskapital verringern und potenziell höhere Absätze stützen würden. Es betonte jedoch die Unsicherheit hinsichtlich der künftigen Entwicklung der Kraftstoffpreise.
• Die angehobene Prognose von APC spiegelt teilweise die Erwartung wider, die Übernahme von USPP abzuschließen, was für das vierte Quartal 2026 zeitliche und umsetzungsbezogene Aspekte mit sich bringt.
• Eine jüngste Zinserhöhung um 25 Basispunkte dürfte auf Basis der zum 30. September 2026 ausstehenden Kreditverbindlichkeiten nur geringe Auswirkungen auf den jährlichen Zinsaufwand haben.

Wichtigste Punkte aus der Fragerunde für Analysten

Zu den normalisierten Margen erklärte das Management, niedrigere Kraftstoffpreise könnten den Nutzen aus Skonti verringern, potenziell jedoch den Gallonenabsatz steigern. Diese Effekte dürften sich nach Erwartung des Unternehmens bis zu einem gewissen Grad gegenseitig ausgleichen, was die Stabilität des Geschäftsmodells von APC stützt.

In Bezug auf den Cashflow erklärte das Management, ein Rückgang der Kraftstoffpreise könne den Betriebskapitalbedarf senken und mehr liquide Mittel in der Bilanz belassen. Der Anstieg des Dieselpreises vom mittleren 3-US-Dollar-Bereich in den mittleren 6-US-Dollar-Bereich hatte den Finanzierungsbedarf im Jahresverlauf erhöht.

Im Bereich M&A bezeichnete das Management den Markt als aktiv und im Vergleich zu den Vorquartalen weitgehend unverändert. Höhere Kraftstoffpreise hätten den Druck auf das Betriebskapital kleinerer Betreiber verstärkt, was möglicherweise deren Fähigkeit einschränkt, Skonti zu nutzen.

Zur Kapitalallokation teilte APC mit, dass der Großteil des Kapitals in Übernahmen und die Geschäftsexpansion fließt. Das Management bezeichnete Cardlocks als eine relativ kostengünstige Möglichkeit für organisches Wachstum und bekräftigte sein Renditeziel im mittleren bis oberen Zehner-Prozentbereich.

Vollständiges Transkript der Telefonkonferenz zu den Quartalsergebnissen

Vollständiges Transkript der Telefonkonferenz

Ausführungen des Managements

Operator

Greetings. Welcome to ARKO Petroleum Corp. Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Priya Trivedi, SVP of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

Priya Trivedi

Thank you. Good afternoon, and welcome to ARKO Petroleum Corp.'s Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. On today's call are Arie Kotler, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jordan Man, Chief Financial Officer. Our earnings press release and quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the third quarter of 2026 are filed with the SEC are available on our website, www.arkopetroleum.com.

During our call today, unless otherwise stated, management will compare results to the same period in 2025. Before we begin, please note that all third quarter 2026 financial information is unaudited. During this call, management will make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statements section at the end of our third quarter 2026 earnings press release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from forward-looking statements made during our call today.

All forward-looking statements made during this call reflect the current views with respect to future events, and ARKO Petroleum Corp. is under no obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements made on this call, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. On this call, management will share operating results on both a GAAP and non-GAAP basis.

Description of those non-GAAP financial measures that we use, such as adjusted EBITDA, discretionary cash flow, net debt and the ratio of net debt to adjusted EBITDA and the reconciliations of these measures to our results as reported in accordance with GAAP are detailed in our earnings press release or in the quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. Additionally, management will share profit measures for our individual business segments, along with fuel contribution, which is calculated as fuel revenue less fuel costs and excludes intercompany charges by our GPMP segment. And now I would like to turn the call over to Arie.

Arie Kotler

Thank you, Priya, and good afternoon, everyone. APC delivered a strong third quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $41 million, up 9.4% year-over-year and discretionary cash flow was $32.3 million, an increase of 22%. As you recall, in early August, we signed an agreement to acquire the business of U.S. Petroleum Partners, or USPP. USPP is expected to add scale, support our fixed margin and fee-based earnings profile and advance the growth strategy outlined at the time of our IPO. We continue to work towards closing the acquisition.

Our third quarter performance and the expected closing of the USPP acquisition reinforce the strategy we outlined at the time of our IPO. durable cash generation, disciplined capital allocation and multiple paths to earnings growth. We are expanding our scale, deepening our supplier relationships, increasing our vertical integration and putting our post-IPO financial flexibility to work in a disciplined manner.

Now turning to third quarter performance. The fuel environment continued to be volatile during the quarter. Regular gasoline ended the quarter at approximately $4.31 per gallon, about $1.32 above prior year. Diesel prices reached record levels, surpassing $6.50 in September. Against this backdrop, APC's business model remained resilient. That resilience is evident in fleet fueling, where approximately 80% of our volume is diesel.

Our fleet fueling customers are commercial operators that rely on fuel to keep their business running. As a result, even with diesel prices at record levels, demand remained relatively stable, while fuel contribution increased approximately 5%. Across APC, Stronger fuel margins and other revenues, including rental income from dealers, more than offset lower volumes, which reflected broader market trends amid elevated fuel prices.

Adjusted EBITDA increased 9.4% and discretionary cash flow increased 22% to prior year, demonstrating the durability of our platform, the stability of our cash generation and our team's ability to execute effectively through a volatile market environment. In our Wholesale segment, operating income increased 7% to $25.8 million this quarter compared to prior year as lower gallons were more than offset by a stronger blended cents per gallon margin, which increased 11.4% year-over-year, supported in part by higher prompt pay discount in the elevated fuel price environment.

Fleet Fueling operating income was $13.3 million, up 8.9% year-over-year, driven by higher fuel margins. We are also advancing cardlock growth. We added 7 new cardlock locations this year and currently have 16 sites in various stages of planning and development. We target mid- to high teens returns with low capital investment per site and continue to develop the pipeline. The Board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share, consistent with our $2 per share annualized target for 2026 shared at the time of our IPO. APC's durable cash generation supports our dividend capacity, which will be further strength by the expected addition of USPP's approximately $30 million of annualized adjusted EBITDA.

Before turning it to Jordan, I wanted to review why we believe the USPP business is such a strong strategic and financial fit for APC. USPP is a vertically integrated fuel supply and distribution platform, serving customers throughout the Great Lakes region. Upon closing, the business is expected to add approximately 280 million gallons of annual fuel volumes across approximately 400 dealer location increases APC's trailing 12-month volume as of September 30, 2026, by approximately 14%. We expect USPP to contribute approximately $30 million of annualized adjusted EBITDA with strong conversion to discretionary cash flow, creating a meaningful step-up in APC's scale and earnings power. The acquisition will also add assets, including terminals in Novi, Michigan and Toledo, Ohio, plus a transportation fleet that delivers more than 80% of its distributed volume. These assets will expand our position across the fuel value chain and increase our relevance with major fuel suppliers.

We continue to work towards the closing of the transaction, which is expected to occur during the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026. In summary, for the third quarter, APC delivered year-over-year earnings and cash flow growth, maintained capital allocation discipline and entered into an asset purchase agreement to acquire the business of USPP that is expected to meaningfully increase our scale and earnings power.

Based on our year-to-date performance, our outlook for the balance of the year and the expected closing of the USPP acquisition, we are raising our full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $156 million to $157 million. We are executing the APC investment thesis, resilient earnings, durable cash generation discipline, grow and attractive capital return. With that, I will turn the call over to Jordan to review our third quarter financial results, balance sheet and updated outlook in greater detail.

Jordan Mann

Thank you, Arie, and good afternoon. We delivered strong third quarter results and continue to work towards the closing of the USPP acquisition, which we expect will meaningfully increase APC's scale. We also raised our full year outlook and remain focused on disciplined accretive growth and shareholder returns. Turning to our third quarter results. Net income was $13.3 million for the quarter compared with $10.1 million for the prior year period, reflecting continued operating discipline and the earnings power of our platform.

Adjusted EBITDA was $41 million for the quarter, up approximately 9.4% compared to $37.4 million in the prior year. Discretionary cash flow was $32.3 million, growing approximately 22%, reflecting strong cash conversion. Turning to our Wholesale segment. Wholesale fuel contribution increased 6.6% to $26.7 million from $25.1 million for the prior year period despite a 4.3% decline in gallons. The volume decline reflected broader market trends as elevated fuel prices weighed on demand and was partially offset by incremental gallons from dealer locations added through ARKO Corp.'s ongoing dealerization program. Blended fuel margin increased to $0.107 per gallon from $0.096 per gallon in the prior year period, reflecting -- primarily reflecting the benefit of the higher prompt pay discount associated with higher fuel costs. Moving to our Fleet Fueling segment.

Fleet fueling fuel contribution increased by 5.2% to $17.6 million for the quarter from $16.7 million last year. Fleet fueling gallons were $36.2 million versus $36.6 million last year. Blended fuel margin increased approximately 6.2% or $0.028 per gallon to $0.486 compared to the prior year period, more than offsetting modest volume declines.

Moving to our GPMP segment. GPMP fuel contribution from related party locations, meaning ARKO retail sites, was $11.5 million versus $11.2 million last year. Discretionary cash flow for the quarter was $32.3 million, an increase of 22% to the prior year period. Net cash provided by operating activities for the quarter was approximately $21.6 million compared to $25 million in the prior year period.

Looking at the balance sheet. Our financial position remains a strategic advantage. As of September 30, availability under our lines of credit was approximately $705 million. Total debt net was $188.9 million and net debt was $338.4 million. The ratio of net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 2.2x and total debt net to net income was 4.5x. As a reminder, at the end of the quarter, our average borrowing rate under the Capital One line of credit was approximately 6%.

Based on borrowings outstanding at September 30, 2026, the recent 25 basis point increase in interest rates would have a modest impact on annual interest expense. Turning to our 2026 outlook. We believe that our year-to-date results reinforce the stability, consistency and cash flow generation of our platform. We are raising our full year adjusted EBITDA guidance. We now expect full year adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $156 million to $157 million. We remain confident in the stability of our platform, its cash flow generation profile and our ability to deliver consistent earnings growth and attractive long-term shareholder returns. With that, I'll hand the call back to the operator to begin Q&A.

Operator

Your first question comes from Josh Silverstein with UBS.

Fragen und Antworten

Joshua Silverstein

Good to see the cash flow uplift here. I was curious on a couple of things. Maybe just first on how you're thinking about maybe a normalized margin environment as we go into next year. As we do have the potential for gasoline prices to come down, do you expect that to be offset by gallons sold? I'm just trying to get a sense as to maybe what's kind of temporary in terms of some of the margin profile versus what's kind of can stick around. And obviously, as you're going and doing more of these dealerization conversions and everything, that's certainly helping you guys too.

Arie Kotler

Sure. Well, as I said before, we saw an increase in margin given that gallons are down, given the price of fuel, I have to be honest with you I don't have a crystal ball for next year, I can only follow what happened over the past few days. And yes, price of fuel are down in the last few days. But at the end of the day, we believe that this is really elastic. I mean if price of fuel will drop, we believe that gallons will increase. And what you're going to see, you're going to see an offset between prompt A discount to an increase in basically in consumption of gallons. I really believe at the end of the day that, that's going to be one against each other offset over here.

And again, this is something that we've been seeing all along over the past 7 months. As price of fuel increase, people tend to be driving less. And because of that, we actually increased the margin. So that's basically, I believe, what we're going to see going into next year. I think we are -- this is a very, very stable model at the end of the day. we're talking about with the price increase of almost 40%, 50%, you're talking about an 11% increase in fuel margin. And at the end of the day, we're talking about only $0.01. So I hope I answered your question.

Joshua Silverstein

Yes. And then maybe just a question on discretionary versus free cash flow for you guys. It seems like because of rising fuel expenses, there's been some headwinds on the working capital side. Do you expect that to normalize as well as prices come down? Or will that continue to be a bit of a headwind as long as we're at the same prices?

Arie Kotler

No, I think we're going to actually have a decrease in working capital because of that. at the end of the day, as price of fuel rise by 40% since -- 40%, 50% since February, especially on diesel, if you think about diesel, I mean, diesel went from mid-3s to mid-6s. So there is no question about that, that when price of fuel will decrease if price of fuel decrease. I'm not so confident about that, but if price of fuel will decrease, I think that's going to ease the working capital as well, and we're going to see more cash on balance sheet because of that.

Operator

Your next question comes from Wade Suki with Capital One.

Wade Suki

I think I asked this probably the last quarter, maybe even the quarter before, so we'll just make it a tradition here on M&A. I wonder if you could kind of just speak to sort of what you're seeing out there, pipeline, bid-ask spreads, any motivational changes from sellers? Any color there that you could give would be great.

Arie Kotler

Sure. Sure, Wade, and good to have you over here. I don't think a lot changes. I mean this is -- the M&A continue to be active. I don't think there is any different from basically from the prior quarter. There is no question that with price of fuel increases, many operators, small operators are in a need for additional working capital just because price of fuel increase. Some of them may not take the prompt pay discount or just basically will not capture the prompt pay discount because of that. But again, I think that the M&A market continues to be very, very active as we saw in the past basically few years. So not a lot of changes on that.

Wade Suki

Great. Maybe switch gears just a little bit, and we might be front-running tomorrow's ARKO call, so I apologize. But kind of similar, maybe you could speak to what you're seeing on the customer side behavior again some good comments on both ARKO and the APC call last quarter. So anything you could speak to there would be great.

Arie Kotler

Well, I can -- we're going to release ARKO tomorrow. But what I can tell you is that the increase in fuel prices, no question, put pressure on consumers, and that's the reason we see a decrease in -- basically in consumer driving. Like I said, on the other side, the prompt pay discount increased the margin. And as you can see, the margin over here is up from prior year from -- basically from $0.096 per gallon to $0.17 per gallon.

So overall, consumption is down on gallons, but gross profit is basically up given the high prices over here. But again, this is just -- again, this is not an ARKO or APC. Basically, this is a market environment that this is a very broader market environment right now. Everybody is facing the same thing in terms of gallons. Everybody see a decrease in gallon consumption and everybody is in a need to basically to figure out a way how to make their gross profit dollars. And like I said, that's why we're seeing an increase in profit, and this is a very dynamic market over here. So it's a macro issue.

Operator

Your last question comes from Gabe Moreen with Mizuho Securities.

Gabriel Moreen

I hear you. Can I ask about capital allocation, specifically organic CapEx? It seems like you're still pretty confident on terms of the cardlock development outlook. Can you maybe just speak to that a little bit more in the current environment? And then are there any other areas organically where you may be evaluating or reevaluating capital -- internal capital development commitments?

Arie Kotler

Sure, sure, absolutely. So in terms of the cardlock, as we discussed, as we basically mentioned at the time of the IPO, we're targeting 20 cardlocks a year. We opened basically 7 already this year. We have another 16 in the works. So we are -- in terms of making our numbers, we're going to make our numbers over here. We already have 23 in different type of between some approvals that we're looking for in development. Nothing really changed price-wise from a cost standpoint.

We've been talking about basically low cost to build a cardlock. It's probably no more than $2 million to build a card lock. So we are in between this range and maybe even a little bit lower. So nothing changed on that end.

From a capital allocation standpoint, most of our capital is actually being targeted after acquisition. as you can see over here and over the acquisition of USPP. This is really where we're going to put our balance sheet availability to work. This business, it's a very, very low CapEx business. So most of the CapEx is really going towards basically growing the business. And as I said, on the cardlock, we're targeting mid- to high-teen return.

And on those acquisitions, as you can see, those acquisitions are very accretive acquisition, again, versus our cost of capital.

Gabriel Moreen

And then maybe if I could just follow up and maybe put a finer point on the guidance range. It seems like you're expecting USPP to close sometime in 4Q. Is that potentially a material contributor in 4Q or any other puts and takes you'd guide us to kind of the rest of the year?

Arie Kotler

No, I think given our performance so far and given that -- if you remember, Gabe, at the time of the IPO, we were -- we basically told the market that we will actually bring an acquisition in Q4, and this acquisition will deliver approximately $5 million in order to get to the $156 million, given that I believe we are working towards closing of the USPP acquisition and given where we are with our results for the 9 months, we felt that we will be able to achieve our $156 million plus, and that's why we raised our guidance over here.

Operator

That concludes our Q&A. I will now hand the call back over to Arie Kotler for closing remarks.

Arie Kotler

Thank you, operator. APC is delivering on the strategy we outlined at the time of our IPO just 9 months ago. In the third quarter, we generated stronger year-over-year earnings growth, demonstrated the resilience of our predominantly fixed margin business model, entered into an asset purchase agreement and are working towards the closing of this highly strategic acquisition that is expected to meaningfully expand our scale and infrastructure, and we are raising our full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance. We believe that USPP acquisition will further increase our earning power and cash flow profile, expand vertical integration and create additional opportunities for operating efficiencies margin capture and long-term growth.

We remain focused on converting earnings to cash, maintaining leverage within our target range and allocating capital to the highest return opportunities. That disciplined framework allow us to invest in growth, support an attractive dividend and create sustainable long-term value for our shareholders. I want to thank our team for their hard work and the execution and to our shareholders for their continued confidence in our strategy. Thank you all for joining us today. We look forward to updating you on our progress next quarter.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.