Camtek (CAMT) Ergebniskonferenz Q3 2026: KI-Nachfrage treibt Rekordumsatz

Camtek (NASDAQ: CAMT) meldete für das dritte Quartal 2026 einen Rekordumsatz und ein Rekord-Betriebsergebnis, getrieben von der Nachfrage nach Advanced Packaging im KI-Bereich. Das Management gab zudem einen ersten Umsatzausblick für 2027 von mehr als 800 Mio. US-Dollar bekannt und verwies auf starke Auftragseingänge sowie eine Visibilität bei den Lieferungen von rund einem Jahr.

Wichtigste Erkenntnisse

• Der Umsatz im dritten Quartal 2026 erreichte einen Rekordwert von 161,3 Mio. US-Dollar, was einem Anstieg von 28 % gegenüber dem Vorjahr und 21 % gegenüber dem Vorquartal entspricht. Das Management erklärte, dass der Umsatz die eigene Prognose übertroffen habe.
• Das Non-GAAP-Betriebsergebnis stieg auf den Rekordwert von 47,5 Mio. US-Dollar, während die operative Marge von 27,0 % in Q2 2026 auf 29,5 % stieg.
• Rund 80 % des Umsatzes entfielen auf Advanced-Packaging- Anwendungen, wobei der Großteil dieser Nachfrage im Zusammenhang mit KI stand. Eagle G5 und Hawk machten etwa 57 % des Systemumsatzes aus.
• Camtek hatte von Anfang 2026 bis zu seiner Investorenveranstaltung im Oktober Aufträge im Wert von mehr als 800 Mio. US-Dollar erhalten, und das Management erklärte, dass die Auftragsdynamik auch danach stark blieb.
• Das Management erwartet für Q4 2026 einen Umsatz von rund 180 Mio. US-Dollar und einen Gesamtjahresumsatz von etwa 595 Mio. US-Dollar. Der erste Ausblick für 2027 sieht einen Umsatz von über 800 Mio. US-Dollar vor.
• Die Bruttomarge geriet durch höhere Komponenten- und Materialkosten unter Druck. Das Management erwartet ab Q1 2027 eine schrittweise Verbesserung durch Preisanpassungen, Kostensenkungen, den Produktmix sowie Beiträge aus dem Software- und Servicesegment.

Wichtigste Finanzdaten

Sofern nicht anders angegeben, wurden die vom Management erörterten Ergebnisse auf Non-GAAP-Basis dargestellt.

Auf Asien entfielen 95 % des Quartalsumsatzes, während der Rest der Welt 5 % ausmachte.

Geschäfts- und operative Entwicklung

Advanced Packaging blieb der wichtigste Wachstumstreiber von Camtek und machte rund 80 % des Umsatzes im dritten Quartal sowie etwa 80 % der jüngsten Aufträge aus. Das Management erklärte, dass sich fast alle Advanced-Packaging-Aufträge auf High-End- Anwendungen bezogen, die durch die KI-Nachfrage getrieben wurden.

OSAT-Kunden machten etwas mehr als 50 % der Gesamtaufträge aus. Camtek gab an, dass sich Kunden in allen Regionen, einschließlich China, Lieferplätze bis ins Jahr 2027 gesichert haben. Die typischen Lieferzeiten für Ausrüstung betragen drei bis sechs Monate, obwohl einige Kunden etwa ein Jahr im Voraus bestellen, um Kapazitäten zu reservieren.

Eagle G5 und Hawk machten rund 57 % des Systemumsatzes aus. Das Management erwartet, dass ihr Anteil im Jahr 2027 steigen wird, hielt sich jedoch mit der Prognose zurück, dass die Produkte 80 % erreichen würden, da einige Kunden die Qualifizierung neuer Ausrüstung während eines schnellen Hochlaufs der Serienproduktion vermeiden könnten.

Das Servicegeschäft von Camtek soll im Jahr 2026 voraussichtlich etwa 40 Mio. US-Dollar generieren und ist jährlich um 35 % bis 40 % gewachsen. Das Management erklärte, dass der Serviceumsatz mit der Vergrößerung der installierten Basis innerhalb von drei Jahren etwa 100 Mio. US-Dollar erreichen könnte. Neue Softwareprodukte sollen ab Q1 2027 erste Beiträge liefern, wobei für das Gesamtjahr ein Softwareumsatz im zweistelligen Millionenbereich erwartet wird.

Prognose des Managements

Das Management erklärte, dass das längerfristige Umsatzziel voraussichtlich in erster Linie durch organisches Wachstum erreicht werden soll und keinen wesentlichen Beitrag aus potenziellen M&A-Transaktionen voraussetzt. Der Ausblick hängt von anhaltenden Branchentrends sowie der Fähigkeit von Camtek ab, die Produktion zu skalieren und Lieferpläne einzuhalten.

Das Unternehmen erwartet, dass sich die Bruttomarge ab Q1 2027 schrittweise verbessern wird. Zu den identifizierten Treibern gehören Preiserhöhungen, Kostensenkungsmaßnahmen, ein höherer Anteil fortschrittlicher Systeme, die Entlastung von Lieferengpässen sowie steigende Software- und Serviceumsätze.

Risiken und Beobachtungspunkte

• Branchenweite Engpässe bei Speichern, CPUs und anderen Universal-Komponenten haben die Beschaffungskosten erhöht und den Betrieb erschwert.
• Das Management rechnet innerhalb von etwa drei bis sechs Monaten mit einer Entspannung der Lieferprobleme, räumte jedoch Unsicherheiten hinsichtlich des genauen Zeitrahmens ein.
• Ein stärkere israelischer Schekel gegenüber dem US-Dollar hat die Kostenstruktur von Camtek negativ beeinflusst.
• Die Bruttomarge im dritten Quartal lag mit 51,1 % leicht unter den Erwartungen des Managements, da höhere Bauteil- und Materialkosten die Kostensenkungen und den vorteilhaften Produktmix ausglichen.
• Es wird nicht erwartet, dass Hybrid Bonding im Jahr 2027 einen wesentlichen Umsatzbeitrag leisten wird. Das Management sieht eine bedeutendere Kommerzialisierung ab 2028 und darüber hinaus.

Highlights aus der Fragerunde für Analysten

Auftragsvisibilität: Das Management beschrieb den Auftragsbestand als bedeutend, bezifferte jedoch nicht, wie viel des Ausblicks für 2027 bereits abgedeckt ist. Aufträge werden bereits für die zweite Hälfte des Jahres 2027 gebucht, was eine Visibilität von rund einem Jahr stützt.

Preisgestaltung und Margen: Camtek hat begonnen, als Reaktion auf die Bauteilinflation die durchschnittlichen Verkaufspreise anzuheben. Das Unternehmen plant zudem, für zusätzliche Systemfunktionen höhere Preise zu verlangen. Das Management machte keine Angaben zur Höhe der Erhöhungen oder dazu, ob sie ein Aufwärtspotenzial für den ersten Ausblick für 2027 darstellen.

Chancen im Softwarebereich: Camtek verzeichnet derzeit nahezu keine Softwareumsätze. Produkte, die unter Nutzung von Technologien von Visual Layer entwickelt wurden, sollen ab dem ersten Quartal 2027 erste Umsätze generieren. Das Drei-Jahres-Modell geht von rund 40 Mio. US-Dollar aus neuen Softwareangeboten aus, wobei das Management auf potenzielles Aufwärtspotenzial hinwies.

HBM und Hybrid Bonding: Das Management erwartet, dass HBM-Inspektion und 3D-Metrologie im Jahr 2027 bedeutend sein werden, nannte jedoch keine Umsatzschätzung. Hybrid Bonding dürfte in diesem Jahr ein relativ geringer Beitrag bleiben.

Potenzielles Aufwärtspotenzial: Das Management identifizierte zusätzliche 2D-Inspektionsschritte als wahrscheinlichste Quelle für zusätzliches Geschäft über die aktuellen Aufträge hinaus. Es erwartet, dass weiteres Aufwärtspotenzial im Laufe des Jahres 2027 deutlicher werden wird.

Wettbewerbsposition: Camtek erklärte, man sehe derzeit keine nennenswerte Bedrohung durch kleinere chinesische Wettbewerber. Das Management nannte sein Advanced-Packaging-Portfolio, seine Position in der Metrologie, flexibles Handling, Fluoreszenzinspektion, die installierte Basis von rund 4.000 Systemen sowie bestehende Kundenbeziehungen als Wettbewerbsvorteile.

Vollständiges Transkript der Telefonkonferenz zu den Ergebnissen

Vollständiges Transkript der Telefonkonferenz

Ausführungen des Managements

Kenny Green

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I would like to welcome all of you to Camtek's results Zoom webinar. My name is Kenny Green, and I'm part of the Investor Relations team at Camtek. [Operator Instructions] Following the formal presentation, I will provide some instructions for participating in the live question-and-answer session. I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded, and the recording will be available from the link in the earnings press release and on Camtek's website from tomorrow. You should have all received by now the company's press release. If not, please view it on the company's website. With me today on the call, we have Mr. Rafi Amit, CEO; Mr. Moshe Eisenberg, CFO; and Mr. Ramy Langer, COO.

Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that the statements made by management on this call will contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Those statements are subject to a range of changes, risks and uncertainties that can cause actual results to vary materially.

For more information regarding the risk factors that may impact Camtek's results, please review Camtek's earnings release and SEC filings and specifically the forward-looking statements and risk factors identified in the results press release issued earlier today and such other factors discussed in Camtek's most recent annual report on SEC Form 20-F. Camtek does not undertake the obligation to update these forward-looking statements in light of new information or future events.

Today's discussion of the financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified. As a reminder, a detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP financial results can be found in today's earnings release.

And now I'd like to hand the call over to Mr. Rafi Amit, Camtek's CEO. Rafi, please go ahead.

Rafi Amit

Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Just 3 weeks ago, many of you joined us at our investors and analyst breakfast event at SEMICON West, where we shared our growth strategy, technology road map and new financial targets. With that in mind, I will keep my remarks brief today.

I will start with a review of our third quarter results, followed by a brief recap of the key messages from this event.

The third quarter marked another record quarter for Camtek with revenue reaching $161.3 million, exceeding our guidance and representing 28% year-over-year growth and 21% sequential growth. Operating income also reached a record $47.5 million with operating margin expanding to 29.5% compared with 27% in second quarter. These results highlight the strong operating leverage of our business model as robust revenue growth translated into even greater growth in operating profitability.

Approximately 80% of our revenue was generated from advanced packaging applications. The majority of which were driven by AI-related demand. Our new generation platform, the Eagle G5 and Hawk accounted for approximately 57% of our system's revenue, and we expect their contribution to continue growing as customer adoption expands. Order momentum remained exceptionally strong. As we shared at our recent investor and analyst breakfast event less than a month ago, we had received more than $800 million in order since the beginning of year until that date. And the strong order momentum has continued since then. Approximately 80% of this order were related to advanced packaging applications, nearly all of which are high-end applications driven by AI demand.

OSATs accounted for slightly more than 50% of total orders, reflecting their increasingly important role in the advanced packaging ecosystem. Importantly, for the past several months, many of our customers have been securing delivery slots through 2027, providing us with strong visibility into sustained demand and continued growth. We have seen this trend in all territories, including China, and we expect this strength in all regions to continue in 2027.

For the first time in Camtek history, we have visibility extending approximately 1 year ahead. This gives us greater confidence in our growth outlook. Looking ahead, we expect fourth quarter revenue of approximately $180 million, bringing our full year 2026 revenue to approximately $595 million. For 2027, we expect revenue to exceed $800 million, supported by our strong order backlog and sales pipeline. Moshe will provide more details on our financial outlook in a few minutes.

Let us briefly recap the key messages from our Investor and Analyst Day. First, we operate in an exceptionally strong growth market, advanced packaging, which is our core business, this market is growing faster than the overall semiconductor industry, while high-end advanced packaging for AI application is growing at an even faster pace. Second, increasing complexity creates new opportunities for Camtek. AI as advanced packaging becomes more complex, it requires more inspection and metrology steps as well as new tools with more advanced capabilities.

Third, we have a clear competitive advantages. Our advanced technology, combined with an installed base of approximately 4,000 systems and strong long-standing relationships with all leading customers put us in excellent position to continue gaining market share. Looking ahead to 2027, we plan to introduce new AI-based software products, creating an additional revenue stream for Camtek and further strengthening our competitive advantages. Fourth, we are ready to scale. Together with our manufacturing partner, who have already expanded their production capacity, we have strengthened our operational infrastructure to support significantly higher revenue level.

In the near term, like the rest of the industry, we are experiencing certain supply chain challenges involving a limited number of suppliers. We are working closely with this supplier to address the challenges and expect to meet our customer delivery schedule. All of this supports our new long-term target to double our 2026 revenue and reach $1.2 billion in annual revenue within approximately 3 years. Importantly, this target is based on organic growth without factoring in new potential contribution from substantial M&A. We recognize that this is an ambitious target, but we believe we have the right strategy, strong market opportunities and the capability to achieve it, assuming the continued trend of our industry. We are fully committed to this goal and are working hard to turn it into reality.

And now Moshe will review the financial results. Moshe?

Moshe Eisenberg

Thanks, Rafi. In my financial summary, I will provide the results on a non-GAAP basis. A reconciliation between the GAAP results and the non-GAAP results appear in the table at the end of the press release issued earlier today. Third quarter revenues came in at a record level of $161.3 million, a 28% increase year-over-year and 21% increase compared with the second quarter of 2026.

The geographic revenue split for the quarter was as follows: Asia accounted for 95% and the rest of the world, 5%. Gross profit for the quarter was $82.3 million. The gross margin for the quarter was 51.1%, similar to the 51.4% in the previous quarter.

Gross margin came in a bit lower than our expectations. As Rafi mentioned, there is an industry-wide supply chain demand, which has not only created operational challenges, but also resulted in price pressure on parts, components and material used in our system, affecting our COGS. We have already started to increase our ASPs, and we expect this to positively impact our gross margin already in 2027. Further improvement is expected by higher share of our more advanced offering and by offering new software products.

Operating expenses in the quarter were $34.8 million compared with $32.5 million in the previous quarter. Most of the increase in operating expenses was in selling and marketing, in line with the higher revenue level. Our operating profit in the quarter reached a record $47.5 million compared with $36 million in the second quarter and $37.6 million in the third quarter of last year. Operating margin was 29.5%, up from 27% in the second quarter, reflecting the leverage we have in our model.

Financial income for the quarter was $7.1 million compared with $7 million in the previous quarter. Net income for the third quarter of 2026 was a record $50.3 million or $0.99 per diluted share. This is compared with net income of $39.4 million or $0.78 per diluted share in the previous quarter. The total diluted number of shares as of the end of the third quarter was $51.5 million.

Turning to some high-level balance sheet and cash flow metrics. Cash and cash equivalents, including short and long-term deposits and marketable securities as of September 30, 2026, were $877.1 million. We generated $71.1 million in cash from operations in the quarter. Accounts receivable increased to $166.2 million compared to $153.9 million in the previous quarter. DSO remained at similar levels of around 90 days.

Now to the outlook. For the fourth quarter of 2026, we expect revenues of approximately $180 million, up 40% year-over-year. This will bring our full year 2026 revenues to approximately $595 million, representing growth of about 20% over 2025.

For 2027, based on our backlog pipeline and strong order momentum, our initial revenue outlook is more than $800 million. Let me briefly remind you of our new target model. We are targeting $1.2 billion of revenues within about 3 years, substantially organic with operating margin of 34% to 36%. And with that, Rafi, Ramy and I will be open to take your questions. Kenny?

Kenny Green

Thank you, Moshe. We'll now open the line for question and answers. [Operator Instructions] And we will take our first question from Matt Prisco of Cantor Fitzgerald.

Fragen und Antworten

Matthew Prisco

I guess first on gross margins. I'd just love to hear where we're tracking in 4Q. And then as we move into '27, can you perhaps walk us through the levers as we just think about those cost increases, the pricing increases, the new product mix, higher volumes, a lot of moving parts there. So can you help us just kind of walk through those?

Moshe Eisenberg

Absolutely, Matt. So first of all, indeed, we were a bit disappointed by the gross margin level, although we did implement cost reduction initiatives during the quarter, which will benefit us in the future as well. On the same time, the product mix is also working in our benefit and our favor, and this will continue to favor us in the future as well. What happened this quarter was slightly higher parts and material costs that offset some of these benefits that will remain with us in the future. Now our plan is, obviously, and this is already in motion is to increase overall ASPs in the market. And with -- together with the software offering that brings to the table, and we plan to improve the gross margin already in 2027.

Keep in mind also that over the last few quarters, the exchange rate also was not benefiting our business activities. The shekel got much stronger against the U.S. dollar, which was slightly an overhang on the COGS cost structure overall and also in the COGS level. So this is not something that this is definitely beyond our control, and we hope that next year, this will balance out. Did I answer your question, Matt?

Matthew Prisco

That's perfect. And then as a follow-up, just can you give us an update on where orders stand today? Any particular areas of strength across markets or systems you would highlight? And then as we think about that '27 outlook, how much of that is supported by backlog today? And how much upside is there given supply and component issues and all those things?

Ramy Langer

So Matt, this is Ramy. So first of all, we are talking about an initial outlook of over $800 million and definitely, I think we cannot give more information at this stage. We said in our prepared notes and when we met in October that the backlog is significant. And I think this is as far as we can go. From the color, to give you some color on the backlog and what we see in those $800 million, definitely, we see a very strong, as we said, over 50% came from the OSATs, an area that we have a very strong position. About 80% is coming from advanced packaging. So all in all, our main segment is healthy, and we maintain a good market position. And I think all in all, all the trajectories are up, and we feel very comfortable with these numbers.

Kenny Green

Our next question will be from Brian Chin of Stifel.

Brian Chin

Maybe first, just a follow-up on the order commentary. I guess, one, to clarify, it seemed based on that last comment from Ramy, a little bit more of a skew towards AI logic relative to HBM in terms of the booking. And also, as you look into Q4 and really in the second half, based on sort of where lead times are for equipment, are you booking more towards maybe kind of midyear next year, maybe even second half '27?

Ramy Langer

So first of all, we are booking already the second half. And as we said, we have a very good visibility 1 year ahead of us. So this is indeed the case. And I would say, as a follow-up from where our discussion, definitely, the business is strong across the different regions, including China.

Brian Chin

Okay. Great. I had a question about software. I know that was one of the interesting topics from the Analyst Day a few weeks ago. I believe you mentioned this revenue stream could increase from sort of tens of millions per year to well over $100 million in that kind of 3-year target model. A few questions there. When you think about your 35% initial revenue growth outlook for '27, do you attribute maybe a few percentage points of that growth to software in terms of some of these new products? And then just kind of thinking forward, is the idea here that you envision some of this AI-related and defect classification software to be effectively bundled with future shipments of Hawk or Gen 5 Eagles?

Ramy Langer

So let me, first of all, correct you. When we talked about the figure, it included software and service. Service is growing very fast at a rate of about 35% a year and has been growing in this respect at this rate for the past few years, and we see it continuing to grow as a result of the much larger installed base and our customers requiring more and more support as the machines are becoming more and more complex. And this is one leg of the growth.

The second growth will come from software. And I think we have said in the past and the acquisition of Visual Layer, which brought us a lot of capabilities on AI, but in parallel, it is a platform to develop products that we expect to start to sell in '27. And I hope that even we'll see initial revenues in the first quarter of '27. So definitely, combination of the software and the service is going to start to be significant already in '27, and we expect to reach the numbers, as we said, in the 3-year target.

Kenny Green

Our next question will be from Charles Shi of Needham.

Charles Shi

I want to follow up on the supply chain challenges. We obviously have seen some of that impact in the reported quarter gross margin. But can you provide a little bit of background on what specific components are in shortage and is it something more specific to, let's say, your tools, optics, light sources or maybe it's just some simple things like PCBs or even memory components, et cetera. So I want to get some thoughts on what exactly is in short right now and for us to get some sense on for how long do you think the shortage situation will last and when the supply can catch up and no longer being an issue going forward?

Ramy Langer

So thank you, Charles. So let me try and elaborate a little bit more. So first of all, these are not specific parts that are made for Camtek. These are general wide industry components. I think you mentioned memories and CPUs that's definitely today in shortage and the prices are higher. This is not something new to anyone. And there are other general purpose components that are in shortage mainly on the handling part of the machine -- and we are working, one, with our vendors. In most cases, we have dual sources. So this is really a question how to balance between the different sources, make the first source less and bring in the second source. These are things that are in motion. And I expect these topics to be resolved, I would say, within 3 to 6 months, I think it will balance off. But this is really my feeling. We're not sure about it. But I think we said in the prepared notes that we will not miss any delivery schedules. We are doing every effort and working very closely with the vendors to keep our plan in place.

Charles Shi

Got it. Maybe a second question. Maybe more on the advanced packaging, especially AI-related advanced packaging outlook between 2.5D and the HBM. We know there are some unique situation on the 2.5D side, maybe just a '27 issue, maybe going to '28, not really an issue. But on the HBM side, what are you seeing today? Because since the SEMICON West event, a few of the packaging, especially the foundry companies reported at least there's one thermal compression bonding company saying they are seeing some TCB delays for HBM packaging build-out. Wondering what you're seeing there? Maybe you are seeing some offsetting factor, maybe that's not that good to read through to Camtek, but I wonder if you can address those issues that have been -- that has been discussed for a couple of weeks among the investment community.

Ramy Langer

So we -- I'm trying to think about your question, but we do not see any change to our plans or predictions. I think we are on track with all the customers in the HBM area. So I cannot bring you any more information or anything new based on your question.

Kenny Green

Our next question will come from Michael Mani from Bank of America.

Michael Mani

To start, nice to see that Hawk and Eagle G5 are more than 55% of sales at this point of the year. If you were to kind of reflect back on the last couple of quarters, were there any areas where maybe your share gain or traction in those new categories progressed faster or better than expected? And what does that tell you about where -- about your confidence level in where you can potentially gain share next year in 2027 to deliver upside to that $800 million full view that you gave a couple of weeks ago?

Ramy Langer

So first of all, indeed, the position in the market continues to be strong. Talking about share in '27 and gaining share, it's a little bit too early. As I said previously, it's really an initial outlook when we talk about '27. And I think it's too early to talk about gains. I think that we are performing very well with our customers as we see it. I think we will definitely maintain position. I also hope that we will gain share, but it's too early to say in which areas.

Michael Mani

Got it. And for my follow-up, I just wanted to ask about the OSAT market. I know this has come up repeatedly, but in the last few months, we've heard your peers become more vocal about being able to enter the space. Obviously, Camtek has had a very established position there for a long time and has seemed to defend that for the most part, pretty well. But when you were to look at each of the different players that are sort of like participating now, whether it is the local Chinese suppliers who are looking to displace incumbents to take share, whether it's the smaller process control peers in your ecosystem, whether it's KLA, what do you think is the Camtek value prop against each of those different competitors? Like why do you think your moat is intact from each of those players?

And when you think about why more competition is coming to the space, do you think it's more of a fact that your customers are looking for multi-sourcing away from Camtek or is it more just secure a very sort of temporary shortage situation in that market because there simply isn't enough capacity out there to address all the demand?

Ramy Langer

All right. So let me, first of all, address the competitive situation of many Chinese players. We do not see any competitive threat from those small competitors in China. We maintain a very strong position, and we expect -- if we talk about share gain, we definitely think that China is a place that we can continue and gain share. So this, I would say, about the lower end competition. And I think when you talk about from the other side that you see the bigger players that are trying to enter the market. And I think this is something that we have seen. I think the market is becoming lucrative and growing. So definitely, people are thinking of maybe we can get some share. This is natural. We never expect that it will be different. But I think when I look at our products, the competitiveness our responsiveness as a company. The products were designed for customization for the dynamic advanced packaging market that is very, very important. We hold a dominant position at the OSAT market, and I think will be very difficult for the larger players to enter.

And I think what is very important is that we have a proven portfolio with dedicated solutions for the advanced packaging. This includes our metrology where we hold a phenomenal market share, includes things like flexible handling, fluorescence inspection, and we can continue and talk about it. And when you think about it, the larger players do not necessarily have all of these capabilities, and it takes a lot of time to develop it while we are developing new and other capabilities that are required. And all in all, when you talk about the larger players, I think we discussed it in previous meeting, they are bigger than us. But in the specific market that we play, we are significantly larger.

Moshe Eisenberg

I just want to add one point, Michael, regarding the Chinese market and the potential domestic competition. I would say that in the last few months, we received -- we enjoyed a nice order momentum across the board and specifically in China. When I look today in our backlog for '27, China will represent a meaningful piece of our business, at least as high as this year. So I think that the competition in China does not play a major role in our business at the moment.

Kenny Green

Our next question will be from Jim Schneider of Goldman Sachs.

James Schneider

I just wonder if you could maybe, as we think about 2027, help us with how you see the linearity of 2027 playing out. Obviously, you have much better visibility into the first half than the second, as you mentioned. But should we think about sort of like sequential step-up in revenue in the first couple of quarters of the first half and then flattening out in the back half or maybe any help on that would be helpful.

Ramy Langer

So trying to look at and as I said, it's really an initial outlook. And I think the business will be stable. We are starting to fill the shipments, the capacity as we speak. And as I said, we're already booking a lot of orders for the second half of '27. So at least when I look at it, I think it will be stable. But it's initially, I would say, balanced capacity growth over the fourth quarter. But definitely, we are in a very good situation, which we're actually seeing already slots in the second half.

James Schneider

And then can you maybe talk about the gross margin profile? I mean, obviously, you have mix in your favor. At the same time, you talked about the input cost headwinds. So can gross margins start to improve further as we get into the back half or is it too early to call on that?

Moshe Eisenberg

Yes. So the expectation is that gross margin will gradually improve starting from the first quarter of '27. And again, as I said before, it's a combination of the cost reduction initiatives that are already in place, the favorable product mix that we have, as you saw, already 55% -- over 55% of our revenues are related to the high-end products, which carry higher gross margin. And I believe that this short-term supply chain constraints will be balanced out off.

So starting from Q1, we will see a gradual improvement. Together, by the way, with the contribution of the software and the service business that is starting to pick up. And Ramy mentioned that we are already looking to see some initial software business in the first quarter. So gross margin bottom line is expected to gradually improve starting from Q1 '27.

Kenny Green

Our next question is from Ed Yang of Oppenheimer.

Ed Yang

The first one is, can you size the ASP increase you're contemplating? And maybe talk about the initial customer receptivity to that? And was that always embedded in your $800 million revenue view or is that incremental?

Ramy Langer

So I don't think we can say now whether it will be incremental or included. It's really too early. But let me talk about resin prices. So there are 2 aspects here. First of all, we understand and I think our customers understand that due to the increase in prices of components, there will be some increase in the ASPs. So I think this is understood and this is starting -- we're starting to implement it. And this will, I think, will gain momentum in the next quarter.

Second aspect is implementing new capabilities into our machines. And definitely, this is the area where we can explain to our customers and our customers are receptive to pay more for more capabilities on our machines. So we are working on both fronts, raising some due to the increase in prices, our own prices, but I think on a greater scale, adding the new capabilities, the new developments that we are implementing in our machines, a reason for additional price increase. And these are the 2 things that we are going to do during 2027. And actually, we've already started it this year, but it will gain momentum in 2027. And whether this will be in the 800 initial outlook or not, it's too early to say. I do hope that there is some upside to these numbers as we go more into next year, but this is something that still yet to be seen.

Ed Yang

Okay. And for my follow-up, we're starting to see some demand headwinds in consumer and non-AI electronics. And could you just remind us, do you have any exposure there? I know in the advanced packaging bucket of your business, there is a piece, primarily mobile, I think, that's not high-performance computing related. But are you seeing any similar softness in that line item?

Ramy Langer

No, we do not see any softening. Yes, there is some piece when we talk about the conventional advanced packaging, which is anywhere in the range of, I would say, 15% in average per quarter. But no, no, we don't see any headwinds not at this stage.

Kenny Green

Our next question will be from Craig Ellis of B. Riley.

Craig Ellis

I wanted to ask a few to better understand what we're seeing in our calendar year 2027 outlook. I know at our analyst breakfast at SEMICON West, we talked a lot about hybrid bonding. The question, is hybrid bonding material in that $800 million outlook for '27 or is it really an opportunity that the company sees filling in 3 years down the road when we're looking for $1.2 billion?

Ramy Langer

So the hybrid bonding, there is a lot of development today being done -- so yes, we are seeing some business, but really on a low magnitude at this stage. I believe that this is business that will start to materialize more in the '28 and onwards. I think in '27, I don't expect to see any substantial business coming from hybrid bonding. But as we said in the previous meeting, definitely, we have a road map to address this market, and we believe that this is an opportunity for us.

Craig Ellis

Got it. And sticking with what's potentially in '27 and where there's additional opportunity beyond the orders that you have in hand now, if we were to categorize potential incremental business as either A; custom ASICs or XPUs, B; work from semiconductor companies with specific GPU and similar programs or 3, HBM, where do you think there's the most opportunity from what you have in hand today to add to orders for next year?

Ramy Langer

I think the main opportunity for us is to gain market share in 2D for additional steps. So this is not really specific that I can tell you whether it's a GPU or HBM or it's very hard for me from the top of my head to try and assess it. But definitely, I think that we discussed it, we have a strong portfolio for 2D inspection, but still, I think there is a lot more business that we can gain there, and we are putting a lot of focus in this area. And I believe if there is upside potential, it will probably come from this area.

Craig Ellis

And when do you think you might be able to convert that pipeline activity to orders? Is that something that you see progressing through the fourth quarter or are these longer-term engagements that might convert 1 half or midyear next year?

Ramy Langer

So first of all, I think we said in the prepared notes, and Moshe also mentioned that the order momentum continues. So at this stage, what we are seeing from our customers are ordering and really securing deliveries next year. And I think this is -- if I would try to put some color on the kind of business that we are, it's really getting and securing slots in 2027. And I think this we will see until the end of this year. And I think new upsides, if there will be, I think this we will see in the first and second half of 2027.

Kenny Green

Our next question will be from Shane Brett of Morgan Stanley.

Shane Brett

My first question is on services. I want to ask Brian's early question on software in a different way. If I think about the bridge from your service revenue this year of about $40 million to your $140 million target in 3 years, just how much new software revenue are we adding into the model? And apologies if you've mentioned this previously, but how much software revenue do we have this year?

Moshe Eisenberg

Let me start, Ramy. So our service business, as you indicated, is around $40 million this year. It's growing at a rate of 35% to 40% annually. So within 3 years, we will be able to reach around $100 million of service revenues from the existing business together with obviously with the installed base that will get bigger. Additional $40 million was assumed with new software offering. At this point, we have pretty much 0 software offerings. This will start in next year in 2027 already in the first quarter and should gain momentum. We believe that there is potential upside to the $40 million that we've mentioned.

Ramy Langer

And I would like to add that we see the software business is going to already be significant next year and expecting double-digit revenues in 2027, and this business has the potential to grow. We have the platform, the capabilities. We already have some products in the pipeline that we started to introduce to customers, and I expect to gain momentum in this area starting in the first quarter of 2027.

Shane Brett

Got it. That's really encouraging to hear. For my follow-up, so your comments on your 3D bump metrology inspection, 3D bump metrology portfolio for HBM from your investor breakfast, is very convincing. But just could you help us quantify how much of your HPC revenue will be coming from HBM this year? And is that mix within HPC, sorry, HBM mix within HPC going to go higher or lower for you next year?

Ramy Langer

I'm telling what the last numbers that we mentioned. I think at the time that we mentioned and it was 2 quarters ago that we said that we received $600 million in orders since the beginning of the year. And we said that the HBM was over 20%. So it's going to be significant, and we didn't continue to add it because the order flow on what we call the high-performance computing, OS and CoWoS-related applications, we -- they don't come together. It's different streams of orders. I expect that the HBM business, both for inspection and 3D metrology will be significant in 2027. I cannot comment at this stage on exactly the magnitude.

Kenny Green

Our next question will be from Vedvati Shrotre of Evercore.

Vedvati Shrotre

So the first one I had was, as we go into 2027, you're seeing the order momentum. But at the same time, you're seeing some of the component supply chain constraints creep in. Can you talk about the lead times and how the lead times for your tools have changed? Have they started to stretch now versus last quarter?

Ramy Langer

I think these are 2 separate issues. First of all, the components issue, it's more, I would say, of a tactical issue that some of our vendors are just -- don't have enough capacity, and we need to use second sources and to overcome, and this is a short term. I expect this will be for 1 or 2 quarters, maybe it will be longer, but I'm expecting us to resolve this situation specifically. And I think Rafi said it in his prepared notes. And I think in general, because of the level of orders intake, definitely, our lead times are increasing. And typically, they are 3 to 6 months. But in some cases, customers are willing to give us today orders a year ahead. And this is not that they necessarily need the machines today. They just want to secure capacity on our floor for the time that there are clean rooms or whatever they need, they want to secure this capacity, and that's the reason that they are already placing orders today.

Vedvati Shrotre

Understand. And then for my second question, you mentioned Eagle and Hawk is more -- the Eagle G5 and Hawk is more than 55% of revenues this year. What happens next year? Does that become a majority? Like is that 80% and up? Is that a good estimate on the contribution from these tools next year?

Ramy Langer

So definitely, this will be more than 55% next year. And whether it will reach 80%, it's a question that's very hard to answer. And the reason for us that certain customers do not want to change the machine in production if they have a very quick ramp and they don't want to qualify a new machine. So this is really something that is also related to customers. I do expect an increase in the percentage of these products and -- but I don't know if they will get to 80%. Eventually, they will, but I'm not sure that it will happen in '27.

Kenny Green

Thanks Vedvati. That brings us to the end of our question-and-answer session. I just would like to remind everybody that a recording of this call will be available from Camtek's Investor Relations website in the coming hours. Also the Zoom link will also have a link and I hand back to Rafi for his closing statement.

Rafi Amit

Okay. I want to express my gratitude to all of you for your ongoing interest in our business. I look forward to our next conversation in the upcoming quarter. Thank you, and goodbye.

Kenny Green

That ends our call. You may disconnect. Thank you very much.