KBR Q3 2026 Earnings Call: Nachhaltiges Technologiewachstum und Prognose bestätigt

KBR (NYSE: KBR) verzeichnete im dritten Quartal 2026 ein profitables Wachstum, da die Expansion im Bereich Sustainable Tech den geringeren Umsatz im Bereich Mission Tech aufgrund von NASA-Programmkürzungen mehr als ausglich. Das Management bestätigte alle Prognosekennzahlen für das Gesamtjahr 2026 und erklärte, dass die geplante Aufspaltung von KBR und Trinzic weiterhin im Zeitplan liegt.

Wichtigste Erkenntnisse

• Der Umsatz stieg im Jahresvergleich um 5 % auf rund 2,03 Milliarden US-Dollar, während das bereinigte EBITDA um 12 % auf 268 Millionen US-Dollar und der bereinigte Gewinn je Aktie um 10 % auf 1,12 US-Dollar zulegten.
• Der Umsatz im Segment Sustainable Tech wuchs um 26 % auf 762 Millionen US-Dollar. Der Auftragsbestand erreichte mit 5,8 Milliarden US-Dollar ein Rekordniveau – ein Plus von mehr als 50 % gegenüber dem Vorjahr –, bei einem Book-to-Bill-Verhältnis von 1,3x im Quartal.
• Der Umsatz im Segment Mission Tech ging aufgrund des erwarteten Gegenwinds seitens der NASA um 5 % auf rund 1,27 Milliarden US-Dollar zurück. Das bereinigte EBITDA stieg jedoch um 5 % und die Marge verbesserte sich um 110 Basispunkte auf 11,5 %.
• Der bereinigte operative Cashflow seit Jahresbeginn belief sich auf insgesamt 371 Millionen US-Dollar bei einer Cash Conversion von 95 %. Der Nettoverschuldungsgrad lag am Quartalsende bei 2,1x und damit unter dem Zielwert von KBR von 2,5x.
• Das Management bestätigte die Prognose für das Gesamtjahr 2026 in allen Kennzahlen. Der Ausblick geht von einem unveränderten bis leicht rückläufigen Umsatz im Quartalsvergleich für Mission Tech und einem anhaltenden Wachstum im niedrigen zweistelligen Prozentbereich im Quartalsvergleich für Sustainable Tech aus.
• KBR erwartet die Aufspaltung von KBR und Trinzic im Januar. Die Führungsteams stehen fest, das Formular 10 ist öffentlich zugänglich und die Vorbereitungen für eine Anleiheemission von Trinzic sollten im November voranschreiten.

Wichtige Finanzdaten

Das Quartal enthielt Zinserträge in Höhe von 15 Millionen US-Dollar im Zusammenhang mit einem einmaligen steuerlichen Vorteil. KBR schloss diesen Vorteil aus dem bereinigten Gewinn je Aktie aus und gab an, dass die zugrunde liegende Steuerquote weiterhin innerhalb der prognostizierten Spanne von 26 % bis 28 % lag.

Geschäftliche und operative Entwicklung

Sustainable Tech

Sustainable Tech war der wesentliche Wachstumstreiber. Der Umsatz stieg im Vergleich zum Vorquartal um 13 %, da zuvor gewonnene Projekte im gesamten Portfolio hochliefen. Das Book-to-Bill-Verhältnis im Quartal lag bei 1,3x, während das Book-to-Bill-Verhältnis der letzten 12 Monate 1,6x erreichte. Ohne das Joint Venture Brown & Root lag das Book-to-Bill-Verhältnis seit Jahresbeginn bei 1,5x.

Der Auftragsbestand stieg auf einen Rekordwert von 5,8 Milliarden US-Dollar und lag damit mehr als 50 % über dem Vorjahresniveau. Laut Management sorgt dies für eine höhere Planungssicherheit im vierten Quartal und im Jahr 2027.

Der Nahe Osten blieb ein wesentlicher Treiber. KBR sicherte sich neue Projektmanagement-Beratungsaufträge bei ADNOC in Abu Dhabi und baute seine Rolle beim Marjan-Offshore-Feld von Aramco aus. Zudem gewann das Unternehmen eine zentrale Programmmanagement-Rolle beim Projekt Diriyah Gate in Saudi-Arabien sowie einen Großauftrag für Engineering und Integration in Texas.

Zu den Zuschlägen im Technologiebereich gehörten die Purifier-Technologie von KBR für die von SABIC geplante Anlage mit einer Kapazität von 3.500 Tonnen pro Tag in Saudi-Arabien, Ammoniak-Modernisierungsprojekte in Europa sowie ein Auftrag für Technologie zur Herstellung nachhaltigen Flugkraftstoffs in Kasachstan.

Die bereinigte EBITDA-Marge von Sustainable Tech ging auf 19,3 % zurück, was hauptsächlich daran lag, dass der Vorjahreszeitraum einen höheren Beitrag aus einem LNG-Joint-Venture enthielt. Ohne dieses Joint Venture lag die bereinigte EBITDA-Marge im Quartal bei 13,9 %, was einem Anstieg von 80 Basispunkten gegenüber dem Vorquartal entspricht. Auf derselben Basis belief sich die Marge seit Jahresbeginn auf 14,3 %.

Mission Tech

Der Umsatzrückgang bei Mission Tech spiegelte ein geringeres Arbeitsvolumen für die NASA wider, einschließlich der Auswirkungen durch In-Sourcing beim IMO-Vertrag und des Verlusts von ISOC im Jahr 2025, das in der Folge ebenfalls insourcing-bedingt übernommen wurde.

Trotz des geringeren Volumens stieg das bereinigte EBITDA auf 145 Millionen US-Dollar. Die Margenausweitung war auf höhere Beiträge aus nicht konsolidierten Joint Ventures, einen günstigeren Portfoliomix nach dem Auslaufen margenschwächerer NASA-Programme sowie früher als erwartet eingetretene Effekte aus Projektabschlüssen zurückzuführen.

Das quartalsweise Book-to-Bill-Verhältnis von Mission Tech lag ohne die NASA-Stornierung bei 0,8x und auf gemeldeter Basis bei 0,6x. KBR entfernte die verbleibenden drei Jahre des erwarteten NASA-Umsatzes aus dem Auftragsbestand, um ihn an das erwartete Arbeitsvolumen anzupassen. Laut Management waren die entsprechenden Umsatzauswirkungen für 2026 bereits in der Prognose enthalten.

Der Geschäftsbereich sicherte sich Aufträge zur Unterstützung der Patriot-Flug- und Raketenabwehr sowie im Bereich missionskritischer Hochfrequenztechnik. Zudem wurde FireFly als eines von vier Hochenergiewaffensystemen für ein Pilotprojekt des Pentagons zur Drohnenabwehr im Rahmen der Heimatschutzverteidigung ausgewählt.

KBR beendete das Quartal mit eingereichten Angeboten im Wert von 9,9 Milliarden US-Dollar, für die noch Entscheidungen ausstehen. Zusammen mit Aufträgen, gegen die Einspruch eingelegt wurde, identifizierte das Unternehmen Möglichkeiten außerhalb des Auftragsbestands von 20,5 Milliarden US-Dollar, von denen etwa 80 % Neugeschäft darstellten.

Prognose des Managements

KBR bestätigte alle Prognosekennzahlen für das Gesamtjahr 2026. Zu den Annahmen des Managements gehören:

• Ein unveränderter bis leicht rückläufiger Umsatz im Quartalsvergleich bei Mission Tech.
• Ein anhaltendes Wachstum im niedrigen zweistelligen Prozentbereich im Quartalsvergleich bei Sustainable Tech.
• Ein Umsatzwachstum bei Sustainable Tech im mittleren 10-Prozent-Bereich für das Gesamtjahr.
• Ein Ausblick auf die bereinigte EBITDA-Marge für das Gesamtjahr bei Sustainable Tech im mittleren 10-Prozent-Bereich (ohne das LNG-Joint-Venture).
• Eine Rückkehr der Margen bei Mission Tech auf normalere Niveaus im vierten Quartal, da sich zeitlich günstige Effekte aus Projektabschlüssen abschwächen.
• Ein Cashflow für das Gesamtjahr innerhalb der bestehenden Prognosespanne, wobei die Cash-Generierung schwerpunktmäßig im vierten Quartal liegt.

Das Management erklärte, dass der Zeitplan für die Aufspaltung im Januar weiterhin im Plan liegt. KBR und Trinzic agierten vor der Transaktion zunehmend als eigenständige Organisationen, unter anderem durch getrennte Finanzberichterstattungsprozesse.

Risiken und Beobachtungspunkte

• In-Sourcing der NASA: Das Management geht davon aus, dass der derzeitige In-Sourcing-Prozess im Laufe des Jahres 2026 abgeschlossen wird. Weitere Maßnahmen der NASA könnten jedoch 2027 zu größerem Gegenwind für Mission Tech führen, wobei in den ersten beiden Quartalen mit schwierigen Vorjahresvergleichen zu rechnen ist.
• Längere Beschaffungszeiträume: Die Beschaffungsverfahren der US-Regierung verlangsamen sich, was das Book-to-Bill-Verhältnis von Mission Tech belastet, obwohl die Finanzierung und die Kundenprioritäten laut Management generell intakt bleiben.
• Zahlungseingänge im Nahen Osten: Anhaltende Zahlungsverzögerungen von Kunden könnten Cashflow in Höhe von etwa 25 bis 50 Millionen US-Dollar über das Jahresende hinaus verschieben, obwohl KBR weiterhin davon ausgeht, innerhalb der Spanne für den Jahres-Cashflow zu bleiben.
• Instandhaltungsverzögerungen bei BRIS: Kunden des Joint Ventures Brown & Root haben Wartungs- und Stillstandsarbeiten verschoben. KBR rechnet damit, dass die Schwäche im vierten Quartal anhält und sich die Aktivität 2027 mit der Durchführung kritischer Wartungsarbeiten wieder erholt.
• Auslaufen von Plaquemines LNG: Das Management gab an, dass die Beiträge von LNG im dritten Quartal bei rund 115 Millionen US-Dollar lagen, und erwartet je nach Meilensteinen weitere 25 bis 35 Millionen US-Dollar im vierten Quartal. Für 2027 wird mit einem Rückgang des Beitrags gerechnet.
• Zeitpunkt von Zuschlägen und Einsprüche: Der Vertrag für die National Science Foundation und den Tactical Support Contract konnte nach dem GAO-Einspruchsverfahren erneut gesichert werden, der Zuschlag war jedoch noch nicht im Auftragsbestand enthalten.

Highlights der Analysten-Fragerunde

Das Management erklärte, dass die Verringerung des NASA-Auftragsbestands keine zusätzlichen wesentlichen Auswirkungen auf die Gewinn- und Verlustrechnung für 2026 hat, da der erwartete Effekt bereits in der Prognose berücksichtigt war. KBR geht davon aus, dass neue Aufträge, darunter der Antarktis-Vertrag der National Science Foundation und ein geheimer Auftrag, zu Beginn des Jahres 2027 für einen bedeutenden Ausgleich sorgen werden.

Bezüglich Sustainable Tech beschrieb das Management die Opportunitäten-Pipeline im Bereich Ammoniak als bedeutend und global, die sowohl Neubauten als auch Modernisierungen bestehender Anlagen umfasst. Zudem gab KBR bekannt, den Leistungsumfang bei einigen Projekten erweitert zu haben, was den Anteil an Projektumsatz, EBITDA und Cash-Generierung erhöht.

Hinsichtlich des erwarteten Gewinnrückgangs bei Plaquemines LNG verwies das Management auf das starke Book-to-Bill-Verhältnis von Sustainable Tech, die Qualität des Auftragsbestands und die zugrunde liegenden Margen im mittleren 10-Prozent-Bereich als Faktoren, die eine anhaltende Dynamik bis ins Jahr 2027 unterstützen.

Vollständiges Transkript des Earnings Calls

Vollständiges Transkript der Telefonkonferenz

Ausführungen des Managements

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to KBR's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions].

I will now hand the conference over to Rachael Goldwait, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Rachael Goldwait

Thank you, and good morning. Welcome to KBRs Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. Joining me today are Stuart Bradie, President and CEO; and Shad Evans, Executive Vice President and CFO. Stuart and Shad will cover highlights from the quarter, and then we'll open the line for your questions. Today's earnings presentation is available on the Investor Relations section of our website at kbr.com. As outlined on Slide 2, today's discussion includes forward-looking statements and certain non-GAAP financial measures. Additional information, including reconciliations to nearest GAAP measure can be found in the presentation appendix.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Stuart.

Stuart Bradie

Thank you, Rachael, and good morning, everyone. I will pick up on Slide 4. As you know, we start every earnings call with a Zero Harm Moment because looking after our people is fundamental to who we are. Over this past year, in particular, that commitment has been tested as our teams have taken on the enormous task of creating two independent companies, while, of course, continuing to deliver for our customers around the world, and for our shareholders. We saw this firsthand this quarter with the successful cutover of key systems, including the transition of Trinzic's payroll systems, a major milestone. And it's a great example of what can be accomplished when talented people come together with a common purpose.

What gives me great confidence is that the same culture that defines KBR today will endure in both KBR and Trinzic going forward. And that is a commitment to our people, our customers, our shareholders and doing the right thing. And I want to thank everyone across both organizations for their hard work, their teamwork and unwavering focus as we move closer to separation. With that, let's move to Slide 5. Today, there are four key messages from the quarter: First, strong execution drove profitable growth and reinforced our confidence in the full year outlook; second, Sustainable tech continues to deliver stellar growth both year-over-year and sequentially, supported by strong bookings momentum and broad-based demand; third, Mission Tech performed well through the expected NASA headwinds with strong margins and excellent cash conversion; and finally, the separation continues to advance with key leadership governance and regulatory milestones in place ahead of the expected January separation date.

Moving to Slide 6, on sustainable tech. Sustainable Tech delivered another strong quarter, driven by structural demand shifts across energy security, food security and critical infrastructure. Book-to-bill was 1.3x for the quarter, making another period of strong bookings and bringing trailing 12 months book-to-bill to 1.6x as well. Backlog increased to another record at $5.8 billion and that is up more than 50%, 5-0, from a year ago. Excluding the Brown & Root joint venture, BRIS, year-to-date book-to-bill was 1.5x supporting our continued revenue growth outlook. BRIS bookings were softer as operators deferred maintenance and shutdowns in response to market conditions. We expect those deferrals to continue into Q4, with activity expected to recover in 2027 as critical maintenance needs are addressed.

The strong bookings secured over the last 12 months are now translating into accelerating growth and revenue increasing 13% sequentially as projects continue to ramp across the portfolio. And this keeps us on track for our mid-teens full year revenue growth outlook. The Middle East remains a key growth driver with project activity demonstrating resilience amidst regional conflict. New PMC awards with ADNOC in Abu Dhabi and an expanded role on Aramco's Marjan offshore field reinforced our position with strategic customers and our participation in critical energy investment.

In technology, SABIC in Saudi Arabia, selected our purifier technology for a new 3,500 metric tonne per day facility, a second large-scale Ammonia award this year following the Pampa award in Argentina. Together with ammonia revamp wins in Europe, these awards demonstrate continued investment in food security and supply resilience. We also secured another pure SAF award this quarter for Kazakhstan's for sustainable aviation fuel project, reflecting continued demand for technologies that advance decarbonization. In Critical Infrastructure, we secured a central program management role at Diriyah Gate, one of Saudi Arabia's largest giga projects, and a major program engineering and integration award in Texas, both extend our role in delivering complex critical infrastructure. Altogether, our record backlog and strong pipeline gives us increasing visibility into growth in Q4 and onwards into 2027.

Moving to Slide 7. Turning to Mission Tech. The business continues to perform as expected. Michael has stepped seamlessly into the role and the team delivered another solid quarter, including strong margins that Shad will discuss shortly. During the quarter, we secured important work supporting Patriot Air and Missile defense and mission-critical radio frequency engineering, extending long-standing customer relationships across high priority national security missions. And recently, FireFly was selected as 1 of 4 directed energy systems for a Pentagon-counter drone pilot focused on homeland defense. This follows its selection to protect launches of Cape Canaveral and further demonstrates the relevance of our technology in addressing critical and emerging customer needs, both international businesses in the U.K. and Australia also performed well with strong execution and healthy pipelines entering Q4 and 2027.

In the U.S., procurement time lines continue to extend, weighing on book-to-bill, which was 0.8x, excluding the NASA in-sourcing debooking. Importantly, customers aren't walking away. Funding generally remains in place and priorities are intact, but projects are moving a little bit more slowly. Our NASA in-sourcing continued during the quarter, consistent with what we discussed earlier this year. As the program ramps down, we removed the remaining 3-year revenue from the backlog to align the expected workload, bringing reported book-to-bill to 0.6x in the quarter. The anticipated 2026 revenue impact was already reflected in our guidance, so our full year outlook remains unchanged.

Awards under protest remained largely unchanged during the quarter. And that includes the National Science Foundation and Tactical Support Contract which we secured through re-award following the GAO protest process. We are working with the customer on transition, although the award is not yet reflected in backlog. Finally, we ended the quarter with $9.9 billion of submitted proposals awaiting customer decisions. And together with the wins under protest, that represents $20.5 billion of opportunity outside backlog, approximately 80% of which is new business, underscoring the depth of growth opportunities across the portfolio. Overall, the business is performing well. The pipeline remains robust and recent wins reinforce Mission Tech's strong competitive position as we prepare to launch Trinzic.

On to Slide 8, and an update on the spin. My last slide today, I'll finish with a brief update on the separation progress. We continue to make excellent progress and have now completed many of the key milestones required to launch KBR and Trinzic as independent companies. The leadership teams are fully in place and the Boards have largely been established on both sites. We expect to announce the KBR and Trinzic Boards in the coming weeks and we're very pleased with the caliber of directors who will help guide the respective companies from day 1.

We also made important progress on the regulatory front. The Form 10 is now public, as you're aware, giving investors the first detailed look at Trinzic as a stand-alone company, and we have resolved the SEC's comments to date. The PLR continues to progress and we expect formal notification regarding the spins tax-free treatment soon. As I mentioned earlier, the successful cutover of key systems is another important step towards operational readiness. The organizations are increasingly operating as stand-alone businesses ahead of separation, including financial reporting, providing additional time to validate processes and ensure a smooth transition. And while I wasn't directly a part of the rating agency meetings, the feedback has been very positive. Preparations for the Trinzic debt offering continues to move forward, and we currently expect to launch in November.

We've seen strong interest from the market, particularly given the quality of the business and the current environment. In 2 weeks, we will be hosting Investor Days for KBR and Trinzic. Michael, our teams and I look forward to sharing more about each company's strategy, their opportunities and financial outlook. And for those interested in joining us, registration remains available through our Investor Relations website.

While there is still work to be completed, the key building blocks are now in place, and we remain firmly on track for separation. With that, I'll hand over to Shad.

Shad Evans

Thanks, Stuart. I'll pick up on Slide 10 with our consolidated third quarter results. The headline is another quarter of profitable growth with strong execution, driving higher revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS. Revenue was approximately $2.03 billion, up $97 million or 5% from the prior year. Growth in sustainable tech more than offset the expected NASA headwinds in Mission Tech, which I'll cover more in detail on the next slide.

Adjusted EBITDA increased $28 million to $268 million, and adjusted EBITDA margins expanded 80 basis points to 13.2%. The improvement reflects strong execution across both businesses, including EBITDA contributions from unconsolidated joint ventures, favorable portfolio mix and lower corporate costs. Adjusted EPS was $1.12, up $0.10 or 10% from the prior year, driven by stronger operating performance, lower below-the-line expenses and a lower share count from repurchase activity over the last 12 months.

The quarter also included $15 million in interest income associated with a discrete tax benefit that reduced our year-to-date tax rate below the guided range. We excluded that benefit from adjusted EPS, and our underlying tax rate remains in line with the guided range of 26% to 28%. Year-to-date adjusted operating cash flow was $371 million and conversion remained strong at 95%, reflecting improved collections during the quarter. We remain on pace to deliver our full year cash flow outlook with cash flow expected to be weighted towards the fourth quarter. I'll discuss the remaining collection timing considerations when I cover guidance. Overall, the quarter reflects strong execution and keeps us on track to deliver full year expectations.

Turning to Slide 11. Starting with sustainable Tech. Revenue increased $157 million or 26% to $762 million. The strong booking activity we've seen over the past year is now converting into accelerated revenue growth. Adjusted EBITDA increased $19 million or 15% to $147 million. Quarterly adjusted EBITDA margin was 19.3% compared with 21.2% in the prior year. Growth trailed revenue primarily due to higher contribution from an LNG joint venture in the prior period.

Importantly, excluding the LNG joint venture, the quarter-to-date adjusted EBITDA margin was 13.9%, up 80 basis points from the prior quarter. On a year-to-date basis, adjusted EBITDA margin, excluding the LNG joint venture, was 14.3%, and that's consistent with our mid-teens full year adjusted EBITDA margin outlook. And MTS revenue was approximately $1.27 billion, and that was down $60 million or 5% as anticipated reductions in NASA-related programs were partially offset by growth across defense and intel and international government customers. These NASA headwinds reflect the in-sourcing impact on the IMO contract and the 2025 loss of ISOC which has since been in-sourced.

Importantly, adjusted EBITDA was $145 million, up $7 million or 5% from prior year with adjusted EBITDA margins expanding 110 basis points to 11.5%. The improvement reflects higher unconsolidated joint venture contributions, favorable portfolio mix from the roll-off of lower-margin NASA programs and the earlier-than-expected timing of favorable closeouts. Year-to-date adjusted EBITDA margin was 11.4%, which remains above the full year margin outlook due to the timing of favorable closeouts. Margins in Q4 are expected to return to normative levels. Overall, Sustainable Tech delivered strong revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth. while Mission Tech increased profitability despite lower volume.

Turning to capital allocation on Slide 12. Our balance sheet remains strong, and our approach to capital allocation remains disciplined. Net leverage ended the quarter at 2.1x, below our 2.5x target, providing financial flexibility as we prepare for separation. Our immediate cash focus is collecting outstanding receivables and carrying the third quarter collections momentum into year-end. During the quarter, we returned $21 million to shareholders through our regular dividend. As we approach separation, we're taking a prudent approach to capital allocation, funding the remaining net spin-related costs while preserving flexibility and strong balance sheets for both companies.

Turning to Slide 13. Based on our year-to-date performance and current visibility, we are reaffirming our full year 2026 guidance on all metrics. Our outlook assumes flat to modestly lower sequential revenue in Mission Tech and continued low double-digit sequential growth in Sustainable Tech, supported by strong bookings and demand trends we continue to see across the portfolio. Cash collection and timing remains an area of focus, particularly in the Middle East. While the conflict has not changed our outlook, continued delays in customer collections could shift approximately $25 million to $50 million of cash flow beyond year-end. Despite that potential timing, we currently expect to remain within our full year cash flow guidance range.

With that, I'll hand it back to Stuart.

Stuart Bradie

Thank you, Shad, and on to Slide 14, and I'll close with the 4 takeaways. We are growing profitably. We're executing well, and this gives us confidence in our full year commitments. Sustainable tech continues to deliver exceptional results with record backlog and strong revenue growth as bookings secured over the past year continue to convert into execution. Mission Tech continues to perform well, delivering strong margins despite the expected NASA headwinds while continuing to win important work across the portfolio and globally. And we continue to achieve major separation milestones with the leadership, governance and operational foundations all in place, ready to launch two strong independent companies. We remain excited about the opportunities ahead for both KBR and Trinzic and look forward to sharing more at our Investor Day in 2 weeks. With that, we'll open the line for questions. Thank you.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from the line of Adam Bubes with Goldman Sachs.

Fragen und Antworten

Anuj Khandelwal

This is Anuj on behalf of Adam. Can you help us frame the NASA headwind like how large it is on an annualized basis, when it laps and whether there is further debooking risk in it?

Shad Evans

Yes. Thanks for the question. As we've said before, there's no material change to the '26 expectations, MSOC was already contemplated in our guidance and [ IMO ] remains within the roughly 16 pack that we outlined in Q1. So really what you're seeing now is the remaining contract value coming out of backlog, really with no additional P&L impact. We are seeing some potential in-sourcing on additional NASA programs, which will create a larger headwind as we move into '27, but we'll provide more detail on that during Investor Day.

But importantly, we've got strong business momentum, including the NSF win on Antarctica and the classified award, which provides meaningful offsets heading into '27.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jerry Revich with Wells Fargo.

Andrew Azzi

This is Andrew Azzi on for Jerry Revich. I just wanted to take a deeper look into the guidance. It implies a bit of a step down in 4Q with 1 quarter less, what gets you to the low end of -- I think it looks like a $60 million range from the top end to the low end? What's driving that in 4Q? Thank you.

Shad Evans

Yes. Thanks for the question, Andrew. We're -- we're really pleased, I think, with the year-to-date performance. We looked at the puts and takes for Q4. We continue to believe that our full year guidance is really the right framework. We expect MTS to be flat to slightly down in asked us to deliver that double-digit growth that's implied in the guide. And so with both businesses operating at normalized margins and no change meaningfully to the tax rate or share count. When you put all that together, we feel really comfortable about the full year outlook, and we're really focused now and what's ahead of us with both companies at our respective Investor Days.

Andrew Azzi

I appreciate that. I cut out a little bit, but I think I got most of what you were saying. For my next question, how can we think about the Plaquemines runoff quarterly through its completion and, let's say, 1H next year? And are there any completion items we have to be aware of, like, contingency releases or final close [indiscernible]? Appreciate any color there.

Shad Evans

Yes, sorry, the line is cutting out a little bit, Andrew. LNG contributions have been about $115 million for Q3. And so we expect another $25 million to $35 million in Q4, depending on milestone. That contribution does step down in '27, and we'll share that specific information with you during Investor Day and ahead of our guide. But really, the strength around the book-to-bill gives us confidence that we can absorb that headwind and still grow the business going into '27.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Tobey Sommer with Truist.

Tobey Sommer

Based on what you know and what you're hearing of incremental NASA outsourcing, when -- or in-sourcing, sorry. When might the process be completed just so we could get a sense for when that headwind for Trinzic would sort of cease based on our best information today?

Stuart Bradie

No, good question, Tobey. Thanks for that. We expect that to be all done this year. And so as we look into '27, the first 2 quarter comps are going to be challenging because we obviously have full run rate of NASA in the first 2 quarters. But as I said, I think it's all done this year. So we will start from a slate, if you like, and I'm sure the team will describe that in detail in Investor Day.

Tobey Sommer

And then could you describe on the new KBR side STS, what the pipeline looks like in Ammonia? And could you kind of refresh us just so we can interpret your prospective wins, what a project size from a dollar and duration looks like? I know they're not all equal, but a framework would be helpful.

Stuart Bradie

Thanks, Tobey, again, another good question. We're seeing, as I said in my prepared remarks, quite a structural change in that market around food security as countries start to look at sort of more security of supplies and supply chain resilience, having sort of growth in GDP and population as well as people moving into middle classes wanting better quality food, et cetera, around the world. So that's a really strong pool from the market. The pipeline of opportunities is significant. We're going to talk a little bit about that Investor Day, as you would expect.

But ultimately, that market is buoyant today, it's global. And it's not just new decks. It's actually revamps as well. As companies around the world start to look at how we can be more efficient and really sort of modernize the facilities given that market. And you've seen that coming through in Europe this quarter with the wins announced two wins in Europe. In terms of thinking about that in terms of our project size, again, we'll cover that a little bit more detail on Investor Day. But one out of, two, three projects is we've managed to position KBR to extend scope significantly. And so the share of the project wallet for want of a better description is substantially larger.

And so the revenue opportunity and associated EBITDA margins and cash around food security are very, very attractive. And that -- we feel that, that market is enduring and it's not just a flash in a pan, so to speak, given the structural change. So more to come at Investor Day, but certainly, we feel really good about that part of the business.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ian Zaffino with Oppenheimer.

Ian Zaffino

Very strong backlog in SPS. What is the time frame that, that backlog will be delivered in? And maybe you could also talk about the margin of the business because I know there's tremendous growth on the top line, but we are kind of giving out some of the EBITDA line with Plaquemines next year. So just trying to -- and I know a lot of this will be discussed at the Investor Day, but maybe we could get a preview, as far as how are we thinking about that backlog being delivered? And then maybe what's the margin there and kind of do our own numbers.

Stuart Bradie

Again, very good question. And quite frankly, we have to get into that in Investor Day in more detail, but I think the headline would be very, I think, purposeful and transparent about the contribution from Plaquemines throughout the year and its impact on margins, ex-Plaquemines we're sitting in solid mid-teens, as you're aware, and that's been consistent for the course of the year. So that's just the way the business.

And as Shad said, we're confident we can -- with the bookings and the strength of those bookings and the quality of earnings associated with those bookings, we can continue our momentum into '27 and offset the Plaquemines sort of equity and earnings piece as we head forward. So you should take confidence in that book-to-bill translating into revenue and earnings to do just that. And that's probably all I'll say now because we've got to really get more detail on Investor Day, and we'll break it down in a very clear and transparent way where we're starting from, et cetera, as we head forward.

Operator

We have reached the end of the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Stuart Bradie for closing remarks.

Stuart Bradie

Thank you for joining us this morning, a fairly clean quarter, but very exciting as well. The businesses continue to perform the growth around SPS, particularly as standard, but the performance on margins in both businesses was terrific as well as the cash generation. The progress on separation remains firmly on track. All things are converging and we're having more and more confidence around achieving not only the regulatory pieces of this, but actually the hard work around systems and the bifurcation of those, and we're testing them and they're working the way they should. So we're feeling really good about that. So all up, looking forward to Investor Day and describing in detail more about both businesses.

As I said, Michael and I and the whole team are looking forward to that to show our way, so to speak and we'll see you there. Thank you very much.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.