Central Pacific Financial (CPF) Q3 2026 Earnings Call: Nettozinsspanne weitet sich aus, EPS erreicht 0,88 USD

Wichtigste Erkenntnisse

• Die Central Pacific Financial Corp. meldete für das 3. Quartal 2026 einen Nettogewinn von 22,8 Mio. US-Dollar bzw. 0,88 US-Dollar je verwässerter Aktie, verglichen mit 20,8 Mio. US-Dollar bzw. 0,80 US-Dollar im Vorquartal.
• Der Zinsüberschuss stieg gegenüber dem Vorquartal um 2,6 % und im Jahresvergleich um 5,2 % auf 64,5 Mio. US-Dollar. Die Nettozinsspanne weitete sich auf 3,62 % aus, was einem Anstieg von 5 Basispunkten gegenüber dem Vorquartal und 13 Basispunkten gegenüber dem Vorjahr entspricht.
• Das Gesamtkreditvolumen lag bei 5,31 Mrd. US-Dollar und blieb damit im Vergleich zum Vorquartal weitgehend stabil. Die gewichtete durchschnittliche Verzinsung des Neugeschäfts lag bei 6,26 % gegenüber 5,72 % bei den abgewickelten Beständen.
• Die Einlagen beliefen sich auf insgesamt 6,66 Mrd. US-Dollar, was einem Rückgang von 0,5 % gegenüber dem Vorquartal, aber einem Anstieg von 1,3 % im Jahresvergleich entspricht. Ein Rückgang der höher verzinsten Termineinlagen um 49,2 Mio. US-Dollar trug dazu bei, die durchschnittlichen Gesamteinlagenkosten bei 0,90 % zu halten.
• Die Qualität der Vermögenswerte blieb weiterhin stark. Die notleidenden Vermögenswerte sanken auf 14 Mio. US-Dollar bzw. 0,19 % der Gesamtsumme der Vermögenswerte, während sich die Quote der beanstandeten Kredite von 2,34 % auf 1,81 % verbesserte.
• Das Management erwartet für das 4. Quartal 2026 eine Nettozinsspanne im mittleren Bereich von 3,60 % sowie sonstige betriebliche Erträge von rund 13 Mio. US-Dollar.

Finanzielle Kerndaten

Geschäfts- und operative Entwicklung

Die Kreditbestände blieben relativ stabil, der Portfoliomix verschob sich jedoch weiter in Richtung variabel verzinstes Gewerbe- und Baukreditgeschäft. Diese Kategorien ersetzten niedriger verzinstes, festverzinsliches Wohnbauhypotheken-, Verbraucher- und Eigenheimkreditgeschäft, was die Zinspositionierung der Bank verbesserte.

Das ausgereichte Neugeschäftsvolumen, ohne Revolving-Aktivitäten, belief sich auf insgesamt rund 229 Mio. US-Dollar, verglichen mit Tilgungen und Fälligkeiten von 204 Mio. US-Dollar. Die Neugeschäftsproduktion in Q3 teilte sich etwa gleichmäßig auf Hawaii und das US-Festland auf. Kredite auf dem US-Festland machten zum Quartalsende 18 % des Gesamtbestands aus.

Das Management identifizierte rund 224 Mio. US-Dollar verteilt auf 71 Kreditmöglichkeiten, die für Abschlüsse im 4. Quartal vorgesehen sind, betonte jedoch, dass diese Pipeline keine Prognose darstellt. Mehr als ein Drittel dieses Volumens wurde bereits im Oktober verbucht.

Das Neugeschäft bei Wohnbauhypotheken lag aufgrund hoher langfristiger Zinsen bei etwa einem Drittel des normalen Niveaus. Das Management prüft Home-Equity-Kredite als potenzielle Möglichkeit, den Abgang zu verringern, da viele Kunden ihre erstrangigen Hypotheken mit niedrigen Zinssätzen beibehalten.

Der Einlagenmix verbesserte sich, da höher verzinstes Termingeld um 49,2 Mio. US-Dollar zurückging. Dies wurde teilweise durch ein Wachstum von 15,7 Mio. US-Dollar bei verzinslichen Sichteinlagen und 21,6 Mio. US-Dollar bei Spar- und Geldmarktguthaben ausgeglichen. Das Unternehmen meldete keine vermittelten Einlagen und beschrieb seine Einlagenbasis als diversifiziert, granular und beziehungsorientiert.

Im Laufe des Quartals kaufte CPF ungefähr 294.000 Aktien für 11,2 Mio. US-Dollar zu einem Durchschnittspreis von etwa 38 US-Dollar zurück. Die verbleibende Ermächtigung belief sich auf 22 Mio. US-Dollar. Der Verwaltungsrat erhöhte zudem die Bardividende für das 4. Quartal um 3,3 % auf 0,31 US-Dollar je Aktie.

Prognose des Managements

• Nettozinsspanne in Q4: Das Management erwartet die Nettozinsspanne im mittleren Bereich von 3,60 %. Die Neufestsetzung der Aktivzinsen dürfte weiterhin unterstützend wirken, höhere Einlagenzinsen könnten jedoch einen Teil dieses Vorteils ausgleichen.
• Sonstige betriebliche Erträge in Q4: Ca. 13 Mio. US-Dollar, vorbehaltlich von Marktschwankungen, die sich auf Erträge aus bankeigenen Lebensversicherungen (BOLI) auswirken.
• Betriebsaufwand für das Gesamtjahr: Das Management erwartet ein Wachstum von etwa 2 % bis 2,5 %, was am unteren Ende der bisherigen Prognosespanne liegt. Für Q4 wird ein saisonal bedingter Anstieg der Aufwendungen aufgrund von Anreizzahlungen und Jahresendaktivitäten erwartet.
• Normalisierter effektiver Steuersatz: Ungefähr 22 % bis 24 %, mit möglicher Schwankung durch BOLI-Erträge. Mögliche zusätzliche Steuergutschriften sind in der Prognose nicht enthalten.
• Einlagen-Beta: Das Management erwartet ein Gesamteinlagen-Beta von etwa 24 % bzw. rund 33 % für verzinsliche Einlagen.
• Kredit-Einlagen-Verhältnis: Das aktuelle Verhältnis liegt bei etwa 80 %, verglichen mit der Zielspanne des Managements von 80 % bis 85 %.
• Aktienrückkäufe: Das Management rechnet im 4. Quartal im Allgemeinen mit Rückkäufen in einem ähnlichen Tempo wie in Q3, abhängig von Kreditwachstum, Rahmenbedingungen, Bewertung, AOCI und der materiellen Stammkapitalquote.

Risiken und Beobachtungspunkte

Länger anhaltend hohe Zinssätze belasten weiterhin das Wohnbauhypothekengeschäft und könnten die Einlagenkosten erhöhen, wenn sich das Kreditwachstum verstärkt. Festgelder (CDs) im Wert von rund 410 Mio. US-Dollar bzw. etwa 40 % des CD-Portfolios laufen in Q4 aus. Ihre gewichtete durchschnittliche Auslaufverzinsung liegt bei etwa 2,7 %, verglichen mit einer geschätzten Mischverzinsung im Neugeschäft von rund 3,0 %.

BOLI-Erträge und Aufwendungen für aufgeschobene Vergütungen reagieren weiterhin empfindlich auf die Volatilität der Aktienmärkte. Das Management beobachtet auch Verbraucherkredite aufgrund der makroökonomischen Bedingungen und der erhöhten Zinssätze genauer.

Zu den weiteren identifizierten Risiken gehören geopolitische Konflikte, Ölpreise, Inflation, Reisebedingungen sowie eine erhöhte Sturmaktivität auf Hawaii. Das Management erklärte, die jüngsten Sturmauswirkungen seien isoliert geblieben und hätten keine wesentlichen Auswirkungen auf das Unternehmen oder seine Kunden gehabt.

Highlights der Analysten-Fragerunde

Das Management erklärte, dass das Kreditgeschäft auf dem US-Festland die Hawaii-Franchise ergänzt und nicht ersetzt. Das Neugeschäft seit Jahresbeginn belief sich auf rund 380 Mio. US-Dollar in Hawaii und 310 Mio. US-Dollar auf dem US-Festland, obwohl der Abgang auf Hawaii höher blieb, da es sich um das größere Portfolio handelt.

Das Unternehmen gibt der Rentabilität von Krediten den Vorrang vor dem Bilanzwachstum und konzentriert sich auf eine bessere Preisgestaltung, kürzere Laufzeiten, Diversifizierung und eine disziplinierte Kreditauswahl. Der vierteljährliche Cashflow aus Wertpapieren liegt bei etwa 30 Mio. US-Dollar, wobei Neukäufe eine Renditesteigerung von 225 bis 250 Basispunkten erzielen. Der vierteljährliche Kreditabgang liegt bei rund 200 Mio. US-Dollar, wobei die Wiederanlagerenditen etwa 50 bis 60 Basispunkte höher liegen.

Das Management geht davon aus, dass ein stärkere Nettokreditwachstum eine zusätzliche Einlagenbeschaffung erforderlich macht, was bedeuten könnte, dass die aktuellen Einlagenkosten nahe an einem Tiefststand liegen. Das Unternehmen erwartet jedoch, dass dieses Refinanzierungswachstum weiterhin ergebnissteigernd wirkt.

Die Kredittrends haben sich im Laufe des Quartals verbessert. Laut Management waren 91 % der beanstandeten Kredite durch Immobilien mit einer soliden Beleihungsquote gesichert, während das Verbraucherportfolio weiterhin der Hauptbereich bleibt, dem besondere Aufmerksamkeit geschenkt wird.

Vollständiges Transkript der Analystenkonferenz

Vollständiges Transkript der Telefonkonferenz

Ausführungen des Managements

Operator

Good morning and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Central Pacific Financial Corp. Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]. This call is being recorded and will be available for replay shortly after its completion on the company's website at www.cpb.bank.

I'd like to turn the call over to Mr. Jayrald Rabago, Senior Strategic Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

Jayrald Rabago

Thank you, Erica, and thank you all for joining us today to review Central Pacific Financial Corp.'s financial results for the third quarter of 2026. Joining me this morning are Arnold Martines, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; David Morimoto, Vice Chair and Chief Operating Officer; Ralph Mesick, Vice Chair; Dayna Matsumoto, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Anna Hu, Executive Vice President and Chief Credit Officer.

Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that our earnings release and supplemental slides are available on our Investor Relations website at ir.cbb.bank. During today's call, management may make forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. For a complete discussion of these risks, please refer to Slide 2 of our presentation.

With that, I will turn the call over to our Chairman, President and CEO, Arnold Martines.

Arnold Martines

Thank you, Jayrald, and hello to everyone joining us today. We delivered solid third quarter results driven by higher net interest income, disciplined expense management and continued balance sheet strength.

Our net interest margin expanded, supported by higher earning asset yields and stable deposit costs. Diluted earnings per share rose 21% compared with last year's third quarter results, which were adjusted to exclude onetime expenses.

Our performance reflects the resilience of our relationship-focused banking model and provides a sound foundation as we move into the fourth quarter. Our strategy remains focused on delivering sustainable returns as a high-performing bank while supporting our customers, communities and shareholders.

We continue to invest in talent, automation and data capabilities to support future operating efficiencies. At the same time, continued productivity gains and thoughtful resource allocation are helping us generate positive operating leverage.

Turning to the broader environment. Hawaii's economy remains resilient despite slower growth in the recent months due to storm-related travel disruptions. Through the first 8 months of 2026, visitor arrivals increased 1.8% and spending rose 4.1% compared with the prior year. Hawaii's unemployment rate remained low at 2.8% in September compared with 4.2% nationally.

Statewide nonfarm employment increased by 1,300 jobs year-over-year, including 700 jobs added in the construction industry, which continues to be a bright spot in the Hawaii economy. We continue to monitor external risks, including the geopolitical conflict and effects on oil prices, inflation and visitors to our state as well as impacts from the elevated storm activity Hawaii is experiencing this year.

We are committed to supporting our community as restoration and cleanup efforts continue. Overall, impacts were fortunately isolated, and we don't see any material impacts on our business or our customers.

With that, I will turn the call over to Dayna.

Dayna Matsumoto

Thank you, Arnold. We are pleased to report another solid quarter of earnings, reflecting the continued execution and diligence of our teams. For the third quarter, net income was $22.8 million or $0.88 per diluted share compared with $20.8 million or $0.80 per diluted share in the prior quarter.

Return on average assets was 1.22% and return on average equity was 15.28%. Our profitability metrics continue to trend favorably in line with our focus on high performance. Net interest income totaled $64.5 million for the quarter, up $1.6 million or 2.6% from the prior quarter and up $3.2 million or 5.2% from the year ago quarter.

Net interest margin increased 5 basis points from the prior quarter and 13 basis points from the year ago quarter to 3.62%. The sequential quarter increase in net interest income and margin was primarily driven by higher yields on loans and investment securities. Average loan yield increased 5 basis points to 5.01%, while the average rate paid on total deposits remained stable at 90 basis points. We continue to benefit from earning asset repricing and disciplined funding management.

Our balance sheet sensitivity position is neutral to slightly asset sensitive. Therefore, we are well positioned in the current rate environment. Fed rate hikes are modestly favorable as we've reduced our fixed rate asset exposures and we expect deposit pricing and betas to remain manageable.

For the fourth quarter, we expect NIM to be in the mid 3.60% range. Total other operating income was $12.4 million for the quarter compared with $14.6 million in the prior quarter. The sequential decrease was primarily due to a $2.4 million decline in our bank-owned life insurance income related to continued equity market volatility.

Total other operating expense was $44.8 million for the quarter compared with $46.2 million in the prior quarter. The sequential quarter decrease was primarily attributable to a $1.2 million reduction in salaries and employee benefits and a $1.0 million reduction in other expenses, both related to lower deferred compensation expenses driven by market volatility and offset by lower BOLI income.

The efficiency ratio improved to 58.3% from 59.6% in the prior quarter and continues to drive towards high performance with our ongoing focus on positive operating leverage. During the quarter, we repurchased approximately 294,000 shares for $11.2 million at an average price of about $38 per share.

At quarter end, $22 million remained available under our share repurchase authorization. Given our strong earnings, the Board increased the fourth quarter cash dividend by 3.3% to $0.31 per share. We continue to maintain a healthy capital position and remain committed to optimizing capital to enhance long-term shareholder value.

I will now turn the call over to Ralph.

Ralph Mesick

Thank you, Dayna. We continue to focus our lending activities on strengthening the earnings profile of the bank while maintaining pricing and credit discipline. We target good quality credit and emphasize sponsorship, structure and returns over volume.

Total loans ended the quarter at $5.31 billion, up approximately $5 million from the prior quarter and down approximately $54 million from a year ago. Average loans were essentially unchanged at $5.3 billion. While overall balances were relatively stable, portfolio mix continued to evolve, improving our interest rate position of our balance sheet.

As we've seen in previous quarters, growth in variable rate commercial mortgage and construction lending is replacing lower-yielding fixed rate residential mortgage, consumer and home equity loans. Funded production, excluding revolving activity, totaled approximately $229 million against $204 million of runoff. New production carried a weighted average rate of 6.26% compared with 5.72% on runoff balances, resulting in positive spread replacement.

From a geographic perspective, third quarter production was about 50% from Hawaii and 50% from the Mainland. At quarter end, Mainland loans represented 18% of total balances. Mainland balances increased by approximately $50 million during the quarter, while Hawaii balances declined by approximately $45 million.

In Hawaii, our emphasis remains on relationship-based lending that supports building deeper customer relationships. These types of relationships generate operating accounts and treasury management services as well as personal banking opportunities.

On the Mainland, we continue to selectively deploy excess funding, which will enhance portfolio diversification and increase risk-adjusted returns. Looking ahead, we are encouraged by pipeline activity. We have approximately $224 million in loan volume across 71 opportunities in the processing stages scheduled for fourth quarter closings.

I would emphasize that this represents scheduled pipeline activity rather than a forecast. The actual pull-through and timing of closings may differ, but we booked more than 1/3 of that production in dollars during the month of October.

Finally, we're well aware of the uncertainty and headwinds impacting the local and national economy, but continue to be biased towards business development and growth. We'll be intentional and disciplined in this pursuit, allocating capital to opportunities that strengthen the earnings power of the bank and the resilience of our balance sheet.

And with that, I'll turn the call over to David.

David Morimoto

Thank you, Ralph. Total deposits ended the quarter at $6.66 billion, down $31.9 million or 0.5% from the prior quarter and up $86.2 million or 1.3% from the prior year.

The quarterly decline was due to a $49.2 million reduction in higher cost time deposits. This was partially offset by growth of $15.7 million in interest-bearing demand deposits and $21.6 million in savings and money market balances.

On an average balance basis, noninterest-bearing deposits increased $10.9 million, while savings and money market balances increased $39.2 million, reflecting our continued focus on primary operating accounts and deeper customer relationships.

Our deposit franchise continues to reflect the strength of our consumer, business and international relationships. Deposits remain well diversified and granular, supported by long-tenured customers, low reliance on public time deposits and no broker deposits. We also continue to invest in the customer experience and operating efficiency across our digital, branch, data and operations platforms.

Recent work on our customer relationship management and data platform initiatives are strengthening service, insight and scalability. Our focus remains on new customer acquisition, increasing primary relationships and connecting our full range of capabilities to serve customers more fully.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Anna.

Anna Hu

Thank you, David. Asset quality remained strong at quarter end. Nonperforming assets declined to $14 million or 19 basis points of total assets, while net charge-offs remained flat at $2.7 million or 20 basis points of average loans.

Criticized loan ratio improved to 181 basis points of total loans from 234 basis points in the prior quarter. 91% of criticized loans are real estate secured with strong loan-to-value ratios. The allowance for credit losses was $59.8 million or 1.13% of total loans, relatively stable from 1.14% in the prior quarter. The provision for credit losses totaled $1.9 million for the quarter.

Overall, our credit quality remains strong with our lending and credit risk strategy focused on diversification, consistent underwriting standards, strong collateral and on stable segments and industries that we have solid expertise in.

I will now turn the call back to Arnold for closing comments.

Arnold Martines

Thank you, Anna. To summarize, we are pleased with our third quarter earnings performance, which continued to trend favorably and reflect the strong execution of our team. These results position us to serve our customers well, support prudent growth and navigate the ongoing market uncertainties with discipline.

I want to thank our employees for their continued commitment to our customers and our communities. Thank you also to our customers, shareholders and our broader community for your ongoing support. We are now happy to answer your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from the line of David Feaster with Raymond James.

Fragen und Antworten

David Feaster

I wanted to start on the growth side. It sounds like demand is holding up well. Pipelines are doing all right, and it sounds like you're still pulling things through. I'm just curious, how is demand from your perspective? Like I mean, as you talk to your clients about higher rates, have you seen any shift in demand? Are you concerned at all about anything starting to fall out of the pipeline?

And then just touch on the paydown activity. It sounds like that's really been the biggest inhibitor to faster growth, but just wanted to get your sense on that side.

Ralph Mesick

Yes, David, this is Ralph. I would say in terms of the forecast, the best forecast we have right now is what we have in the pipeline and the pipeline looks fairly healthy. As you probably are aware, we do underwrite loans to the higher rate environment.

We also look at that relative to our asset monitoring of our portfolio. I would say in terms of activity, Mainland lending is really supplementing not replacing the Hawaii franchise. We generated, I think, about $380 million in production in Hawaii this year against about, say, $310 million in the Mainland. And then the runoff is greater in Hawaii because it's basically a larger portfolio.

David Feaster

Okay. And when I look at it, it's -- a lot of the runoff is in kind of the resi mortgage and home equity lines. Could you touch on the mortgage market and the housing market from your perspective? How much of that is intentional and strategic, just kind of optimizing the loan book and rotating towards more CRE and commercial? And just again, kind of how you're seeing pricing trending today?

David Morimoto

David, it's David. On the first mortgage side, residential mortgage, obviously, that faces a lot of headwinds just because of the rate environment. So no different than the rest of the industry. And with the recent rise in longer-term rates, it's going to continue to face headwinds.

I think it's running at about 1/3 of what it normally would have been running on as far as production and we expect that to continue. The home equity is a potential opportunity. It is a product that we are taking a harder look at and seeing if there's opportunity to at least diminish the runoff, if not have some net growth in that portfolio.

As people have -- a lot of people have first mortgages at very low interest rates, they're not looking to refi that. So the way that they can access their equity is through the home equity product.

Ralph Mesick

I would add, David, that we're really trying to improve the economics of our loan portfolio, not really just pursuing balance sheet growth. So what you're going to see, I think, and what you've seen our priorities are better pricing, shorter duration, some diversification. And then I'd say continued sort of, I'd say, disciplined credit selection.

David Feaster

Okay. Okay. And maybe on the other side of the balance sheet, right? I mean, touching on funding, it's pretty impressive what you are able to do. I mean, reducing CDs, able to replace that with some core deposits, keep deposit costs flat. Could you just touch on how do you think about core deposit growth as we look forward? How pricing is trending and just kind of the competitive landscape for funding on the islands?

David Morimoto

David, it's David again. First off, I want to thank the teams. The teams have been doing an exceptional job with continuing to build core deposits, and that's what's led us to be able to keep -- to manage deposit costs over time. I think as we look forward, we are expecting strengthening loan growth, net loan growth and as a result, that likely will cause total deposit costs to -- this might be a trough going forward.

If we start to see loan growth, we'll look to start growing our deposits and that may result in slight increases in total deposit costs. Having said all of that, that is what we're looking to do, and that will be accretive growth. So I would think that's how we're looking at the deposit side. We've been very deliberate about our managing of our deposit base because of the lack -- not lack, but the minimal amount of loan growth. But going forward, we think that's going to change.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Matthew Clark with Piper Sandler.

Matthew Clark

Just along those lines, maybe, Dayna, if you had the spot rate on deposits at the end of September. And just thinking through the beta, assuming we get maybe a rate hike in December and March. I think on the way down, you were about 35% for interest-bearing. Do you think you can kind of -- do you think you do something similar? Or do you think you can do a little better than that on the way up?

Dayna Matsumoto

Sure. Matthew, thanks for the question. On the spot rate for the month of September, our total deposit cost was 91 basis points, so starting to tick up slightly there. As far as the betas, we believe we can manage the deposit repricing beta in a favorable range, similar to what we've experienced in the last couple of cycles. So I'm expecting a total deposit beta of around 24% or about 33% on total interest-bearing deposits. Our depositors are relationship-based, sticky and generally less rate sensitive overall. So I feel good that we can manage the beta in a reasonable range.

Matthew Clark

Great. And then just on the CD side, down this quarter. It sounded like some of it was higher cost. Can you just update us on the amount of CDs you have maturing here in the fourth quarter and the roll-off and roll-on rates that you anticipate?

Dayna Matsumoto

Sure. In the fourth quarter, we have about $410 million of CD maturity. That's about 40% of our portfolio. That's running off at a weighted average rate of about 2.7%. And I believe our new CD rates on a blended basis, I estimate it to be approximately 3.0%. So a nominal rise in our CD costs going forward, but we can manage through that.

Matthew Clark

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then on the fee and expense run rate, I apologize if I missed it in your prepared comments if you spoke to kind of a run rate going forward, but just trying to think of a normalized fee income and noninterest expense run rate for the fourth quarter when you kind of distill the BOLI noise.

Dayna Matsumoto

Sure, Matthew. On the fee income side, when we carve out that BOLI noise, like you said, our noninterest income continues to do well on the wealth side. Our teams have been successful there growing the business. Mortgage banking, though, will be under pressure in this current higher for longer rate environment.

So considering these factors, I'm expecting that our total other operating income to be generally flattish year-over-year, but it will depend on further market volatility impacting our BOLI. And then just for the fourth quarter, if you're looking at that specifically, probably in about the $13 million range.

And then on expenses, Matthew, our -- we continue to manage our expense base well. And like I said, our objective is to consistently deliver positive operating leverage. The guidance for the full year, I updated it to expect an increase of about 2% to 2.5% this year, which is on the low end of the range that I had previously guided to.

In the fourth quarter, we do typically see some seasonal step-up in expenses related to incentives and some other year-end activities. And then as you know, our deferred compensation expense continues to be volatile, but we assume that it will normalize in the fourth quarter.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Liesch with StoneX Financial.

Your next question comes from the line of Kelly Motta with KBW.

Kelly Motta

It was a nice clean quarter. I feel like most of mine have been taken at this point. I guess as you look ahead, it seems like growth has been a little bit more muted with more coming from the Mainland. I'm wondering if you can supplement kind of what you're seeing in natural Hawaii for maybe more Mainland growth coming on. I'm just wondering how you guys are viewing that portion of the business.

Ralph Mesick

Kelly, I think I got your question. You were a little soft, but I think right now, we're running about 50-50 between Hawaii and the Mainland. And I think just through this first month of the quarter, that's kind of the mix right now. So again, if we continue to run off some of the fixed rate long-duration assets, we're probably going to see fairly muted growth.

Kelly Motta

Got it. That's helpful. And maybe just a housekeeping item for Dayna. Dayna, do you have your expected tax rate? It came in a little higher than where it was for the quarter?

Dayna Matsumoto

Sure, Kelly. On the tax rate, so the increase this quarter was due to less tax-exempt BOLI income as well as higher pretax book income. Going forward, I would expect our normalized ETR to be around 22% to 24%. The BOLI income has been volatile, so that could impact it. And then I'll lastly note that we are evaluating some potential additional tax credits, which would be favorable to our tax rate. But right now, I'm not building it into the guidance.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Liesch with StoneX Financial.

Andrew Liesch

Okay. No, my question is really just on the margin guide. I mean I see the repricing engine that's still flowing through, hear the asset sensitivity or the modest asset sensitivity. So why wouldn't the guide be closer to the high 3.60s rather than the mid-3.60s?

Dayna Matsumoto

Andrew, it's Dayna. So on the go-forward margin, you're correct about the factors that are -- will be favorable to the margin going forward. We will continue to have the positive asset back book cash flow repricing benefits on both the loans and the securities.

And then our balance sheet sensitivity, as I noted earlier, is neutral to slightly asset sensitive. So there could be a slight net positive for us there. But I will note loan yields are going up. But on the deposit side, those rates will also be going up, offsetting some of those benefits.

So those are the factors that are kind of influencing our margin outlook. Yes, as we head into next year, I think there is more potential upside on the margin to the extent we are able to drive more loan growth and assuming that pricing remains rational, but we're not providing guidance for 2027 at this point.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Liam Coohill with Hovde Group.

Liam Coohill

So to touch on deposits one more time, great to see the replacement of some higher cost funding in the quarter for some lower cost core deposits. But I was wondering, is there a loan-to-deposit ratio you're targeting as we're thinking about potential loan growth in the future and funding that with deposits?

Dayna Matsumoto

Liam, this is Dayna. On the loan-to-deposit ratio, we're currently at about 80%. Our target range, I would say, is about 80% to 85%. So we're on the lower end of that. I think that gives us a lot of flexibility to grow the balance sheet, and we plan to do that in a profitable way.

Liam Coohill

That's very helpful. Let's jump to credit quickly. Are there any verticals where you're watching dynamics more closely? I mean it looks like credit improved pretty nicely in the quarter, but just curious if you have any thoughts there.

Anna Hu

I think -- Liam, this is Anna. Where we're primarily focused on is just paying attention a little bit more to the consumer market, just given the macroeconomic market conditions, the higher interest rates for longer. Yes, it's mostly the consumer side.

Liam Coohill

That makes sense. And final question for me, just more of a housekeeping item. Moving forward, do you expect share repurchases likely continue in your current levels?

Dayna Matsumoto

Liam, I can take that one. This is Dayna. So we do have the repurchase program with some authorization left, as I noted. This does give us flexibility, which we like. It's a low-risk source of value. But as I've said in prior quarters, the level of repurchases in any given quarter, it will continue to be dynamic and informed by several factors, including loan growth opportunities, the operating environment, other risk considerations, our valuation as well as we are watching our AOCI and TCE ratio. But with all of that said, as of now, I generally expect we will continue share repurchases at a roughly similar pace in the fourth quarter as we did in the third quarter.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Clark with Piper Sandler.

Matthew Clark

Since we're digging into the margin a little bit more there in the Q&A, Dayna, can you just remind us of the securities cash flows that are coming off the portfolio roll off and expected roll-on rates?

And then same thing on the loan side. I think the payoffs and new production, roughly, I think, a 50 basis point pickup there, but just also want to think through the back book repricing on the loan side.

Dayna Matsumoto

Sure, Matthew. On the securities portfolio, the cash flows on a quarterly basis is about $30 million a quarter. And we've been getting about, I'd say, 225 to 250 basis points yield pickup on our new securities purchases. On the loan portfolio, it's about $200 million in total quarterly runoff. And as you mentioned, it is being replaced at weighted average yields that are around 50 to 60 basis points higher.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Jayrald Rabago.

Jayrald Rabago

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today and for your continued interest in Central Pacific Financial Corp. We look forward to speaking with you again next quarter.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.