Noble Corporation (NE) Q3 2026 Earnings Call: Auftragsbestand erreicht 6,7 Milliarden USD

Die Noble Corporation (NYSE: NE) wies für das dritte Quartal 2026 einen Umsatz von 684 Mio. US-Dollar und ein bereinigtes EBITDA von 201 Mio. US-Dollar aus. Der freie Cashflow lag aufgrund weiterhin hoher Investitionen bei minus 48 Mio. US-Dollar, während der Auftragsbestand durch neue Vertragsabschlüsse auf 6,7 Mrd. US-Dollar anstieg.

Wichtigste Erkenntnisse

• Der Umsatz im dritten Quartal 2026 belief sich auf 684 Mio. US-Dollar, das bereinigte EBITDA auf 201 Mio. US-Dollar und die bereinigte EBITDA-Marge auf 28 %. Das bereinigte EBITDA ging im Vergleich zum Vorquartal vor allem aufgrund des Vertragswechsels mehrerer Bohrinseln um 5 % zurück.
• Der operative Cashflow belief sich auf 144 Mio. US-Dollar, während Investitionen von 192 Mio. US-Dollar zu einem negativen freien Cashflow von 48 Mio. US-Dollar führten.
• Noble sicherte sich in den vergangenen drei Monaten neue Aufträge im Wert von rund 560 Mio. US-Dollar. Der Gesamtauftragsbestand belief sich zum 26. Oktober auf 6,7 Mrd. US-Dollar, wovon etwa 2,6 Mrd. US-Dollar im Laufe des Jahres 2027 umsatzwirksam werden sollen.
• Das Unternehmen grenzte seine Umsatzprognose für 2026 auf 2,85 bis 2,90 Mrd. US-Dollar und die Prognose für das bereinigte EBITDA auf 850 bis 900 Mio. US-Dollar ein. Das Management rechnet im vierten Quartal mit einem bereinigten EBITDA knapp unter dem Niveau des dritten Quartals.
• Noble setzte sein Kapitalrückgabe-Programm fort, zahlte eine Quartalsdividende von 0,50 US-Dollar je Aktie und kündigte für das vierte Quartal eine weitere Dividende in gleicher Höhe an.
• Das Management geht davon aus, dass das bereinigte EBITDA im ersten Quartal 2027 im Vergleich zum vierten Quartal 2026 weitgehend stabil bleiben und danach mit steigender kontrahierter Kapazität in jedem Quartal deutlich zulegen wird. Die kontrahierte Flottenkapazität für die zweite Hälfte des Jahres 2027 liegt bereits etwa 20 % über der der ersten Hälfte.

Wichtige Finanzdaten

Der Verkauf der Noble Resolve wurde am 9. Oktober abgeschlossen und erbrachte die verbleibenden Erlöse von 45 Mio. US-Dollar. Noble erwartet zudem, dass der Verkauf der Noble Globetrotter II im Wert von 38 Mio. US-Dollar im vierten Quartal 2026 abgeschlossen wird. Laut Management wird die Bohrinseln nach der Transaktion aus der Bohrflotte ausscheiden.

Geschäfts- und operative Entwicklung

Das niedrigere bereinigte EBITDA im dritten Quartal spiegelt eine geringere Anzahl vertraglich gebundener Tage für Noble BlackRhino, Noble Discoverer, Noble Venturer und Noble Globetrotter I wider. Dies wurde teilweise durch die Wiederaufnahme des Betriebs zweier Bohrinseln in Brasilien im Juli und den Vertragsbeginn der Noble Gerry de Souza im August ausgeglichen.

Die Noble Voyager begann ihren Vierjahresvertrag für Shell im US-Golf Ende September, aufgrund von Verzögerungen bei der finalen Inbetriebnahme und wetterbedingten Unterbrechungen einige Wochen später als geplant. Die Noble Valiant und die Noble Discoverer sollen um den Jahreswechsel 2026/2027 eine langfristige Erschließungskampagne für TotalEnergies in Suriname beginnen.

Zu den jüngsten Vertragsabschlüssen gehörten:

• Noble BlackRhino: Ein Vertrag mit TotalEnergies über vier Bohrungen in Nigeria, der voraussichtlich in wenigen Wochen beginnt und rund 150 Tage dauern wird, mit Optionen für bis zu sechs weitere Bohrungen.
• Noble Faye Kozack: Ein Vertrag mit Tullow über fünf Bohrungen in Ghana, der Mitte 2027 beginnen soll und eine geschätzte Dauer von etwa 250 Tagen hat.
• Noble Globetrotter I: Eine dreijährige Kapazitätsreservierungsvereinbarung mit TotalEnergies für leichte Brunneninterventionen (Light Well Intervention), wobei der erste Einsatz in Angola im dritten oder vierten Quartal 2027 erwartet wird. Davor soll die Bohrinseln ab dem zweiten Quartal 2027 für eine Explorationskampagne von Occidental über zwei Bohrungen in Peru eingesetzt werden.
• Noble BlackHawk: Ein Vertrag mit Apache über eine Bohrung in Uruguay, der voraussichtlich im vierten Quartal 2027 beginnt. Der auf etwa 50 Tage geschätzte Vertrag hat einen Wert von rund 25 Mio. US-Dollar, exklusive Mobilisierung, Demobilisierung, Managed Pressure Drilling und sonstigen Dienstleistungen.
• Noble Interceptor: Eine Bohrung für DNO, voraussichtlich Mitte 2027, gefolgt von einem rund 670 Tage dauernden Stilllegungs- und Verfüllungsprogramm (Plug-and-Abandonment) für ConocoPhillips bei Ekofisk ab dem dritten Quartal 2027.
• Noble Intrepid: Ein Vertrag mit ORLEN über eine Bohrung, der voraussichtlich im dritten Quartal 2027 beginnt und 40 bis 60 Tage dauern wird.

Nach Angaben des Managements sind 109 von 110 vermarkteten Ultra-Tiefsee-Bohrinseln derzeit oder für zukünftige Arbeiten vergeben, was einer vertraglichen Auslastung von 99 % entspricht. Die aktuelle operative Auslastung liegt weiterhin bei 88 Bohrinseln, 10 unter dem Höchststand von 2024. Die Spitzen-Tagesraten für High-End-Bohrschiffe wurden auf den Bereich von Mitte 400.000 US-Dollar bis 500.000 US-Dollar pro Tag beziffert.

Auch der norwegische Markt entwickelt sich für Noble positiv. Vier der fünf CJ-70-Hubinseln des Unternehmens sind dort mittlerweile unter Vertrag, wobei die aktuellen Tagesraten je nach Betriebsmodus und Dauer zwischen 230.000 und 300.000 US-Dollar liegen. Die Noble Innovator ist weiterhin ohne Vertrag, obwohl das Management optimistisch ist, Aufträge in der südlichen Nordsee zu sichern.

Prognose des Managements

Die vom Kunden erstattungsfähigen Investitionsausgaben werden für 2026 auf insgesamt rund 65 Mio. US-Dollar geschätzt, verglichen mit den zuvor erwarteten 25 Mio. US-Dollar.

Das Management geht davon aus, dass das bereinigte EBITDA im ersten Quartal 2027 in etwa auf dem Niveau des vierten Quartals 2026 liegen wird, gefolgt von einem deutlichen sequenziellen Wachstum im restlichen Verlauf des Jahres 2027. Dieser Ausblick wird durch eine kontrahierte Kapazität gestützt, die in der zweiten Hälfte des Jahres 2027 um etwa 20 % höher ist als in der ersten Hälfte, wobei zusätzliche Vertragsschancen Mitte des Jahres weiterhin verfolgt werden.

Die normalisierten Netto-Investitionsausgaben wurden am oberen Ende der zuvor genannten Spanne von hohen 300 Mio. bis 400 Mio. US-Dollar angegeben, exklusive Noble Claus Bachmann. Etwas mehr als die Hälfte der Projektausgaben für die Noble Claus Bachmann wird für 2027 erwartet. Die Flotteninvestitionen dürften bis etwa Mitte 2027 auf hohem Niveau bleiben, bevor die damit verbundene Ergebnis- und Free-Cashflow-Kapazität hochläuft.

Risiken und wichtige Einflussfaktoren

• Vertragswechsel und Projektverzögerungen verringerten die Anzahl der vertraglich gebundenen Tage im dritten Quartal. Inbetriebnahme und Wetter verzögerten den Start der Noble Voyager, während spätere Betriebsaufnahmen der Noble Voyager und Noble Valiant die EBITDA-Prognose für das Gesamtjahr belasteten.
• Der US-Golf bleibt ein schwächerer regionaler Markt, wobei die Anzahl der Bohrinseln von im niedrigen 20er-Bereich in den letzten Jahren auf den mittleren 10er-Bereich gefallen ist. Das Management erwartet für 2027 eine gewisse Erholung, wies jedoch darauf hin, dass abwandernde Bohrschiffe einen Aufwärtsdruck auf die Tagesraten erzeugen könnten, um Kapazitäten zurückzulocken.
• Höhere Rohstoffpreise haben noch nicht zu einem deutlichen Anstieg der Bohrnachfrage geführt. Das Management führte dies auf die anhaltende Kapitaldisziplin der Kunden sowie auf durch geopolitische Faktoren getriebene Unsicherheiten bezüglich der kurzfristigen Ölpreise zurück.
• Einige Bohrinseln verfügen im Jahr 2027 noch über freie Kapazitäten, darunter Noble Viking, Noble BlackHawk und Noble Stanley Lafosse. Das Management bemüht sich um Aufträge, um diese Lücken zu schließen, allerdings wurden noch nicht für alle verfügbaren Zeiträume Verträge gesichert.
• Die Kosteninflation beeinflusst die Erwartungen an die normalisierten Investitionsausgaben, während umfassende Flottenmodernisierungen bis Mitte 2027 weiterhin Kapital binden werden.

Highlights der Analysten-Fragerunde

Tiefsee-Nachfrage: Das Management bezeichnete den US-Golf und Indien als die konstruktivsten Veränderungen der letzten 90 Tage. Noble sieht zwei bis drei Chancen im US-Golf, die kurz vor dem verbindlichen Abschluss stehen, und geht davon aus, dass Indien ab Ende 2027 und 2028 zwei bis vier Bohrschiffe benötigen könnte.

Explorationsausblick: Die Kunden haben in den letzten 18 Monaten den Schwerpunkt zunehmend auf den Ersatz von Reserven und Exploration gelegt. Laut Management könnte das Jahr 2027 mehr Explorationsbohrungen in unerschlossenen Gebieten (Wildcat Drilling) bringen, obwohl aktuelle Explorationsaufträge noch nicht wesentlich genug sind, um den Gesamtausblick von Noble erheblich zu verändern. Erschließungsprojekte bleiben bis Ende 2027 der Haupttreiber des erwarteten Nachfragewachstums.

Wirtschaftlichkeit der Globetrotter I: Die dreijährige Interventionsvereinbarung umfasst mindestens 150 Betriebstage pro Jahr. Das Management geht davon aus, dass das Programm bei der Mindestverpflichtung in etwa cashflow-neutral ist, mit Margepotenzial bei zusätzlichen Abrufaufträgen. Ein starkes Jahr könnte nahe an 300 Betriebstage heranreichen, während ein durchschnittliches Ergebnis im niedrigen 200er-Bereich liegen könnte.

Preisgestaltung in Guyana: Die Raten für die Bohrinseln von Noble in Guyana werden im Vergleich zum weltweiten Markt für Tier-1-Bohrschiffe verhandelt. Die jüngste Sechsmonatsrate wurde etwa einen Monat vor der Telefonkonferenz festgelegt und gilt ab dem 1. Januar 2027. Noble gibt die genaue Rate nicht bekannt.

Freie Kapazitäten der Bohrinseln: Laut Management könnte die Noble Viking im Jahr 2027 potenziell eine Auslastung von rund 50 % erreichen, wenn zusätzliche Aufträge in Südostasien gesichert werden. Für die Noble BlackHawk und Noble BlackRhino bestehen mehrere Chancen für Ende 2027 und 2028, während die Noble Stanley Lafosse Ende 2027 oder Anfang 2028 außerhalb der USA in den Betrieb zurückkehren könnte.

Flotteninvestitionen: Bis Ende 2027 rechnet das Management damit, dass alle Tier-1-Bohrschiffe über Kapazitäten für Managed Pressure Drilling verfügen werden. Weitere Modernisierungen umfassen Bohrtürme mit höherer Tragfähigkeit, seilgeführte Kompensatoren (Crown-Mounted Compensators) wo erforderlich und größere Strahlruder (Thruster) bei einem Großteil der Flotte. Das Management bezeichnete diese als Investitionen in die Gesamtnutzungsdauer der Anlagen, um die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit bei globalen Erschließungsprojekten zu verbessern.

Vollständiges Transkript der Ergebnisse-Telefonkonferenz

Vollständiges Transkript der Telefonkonferenz

Ausführungen des Managements

Operator

Hello, and thank you for standing by. My name is Lacy, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Noble Corporation Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions]

I would now like to turn the call over to Ian MacPherson. Please go ahead.

Ian MacPherson

Thank you, operator, and welcome, everyone, to Noble Corporation's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. You can find a copy of our earnings report, along with the supporting statements and schedules on our website at noblecorp.com. We will reference an earnings presentation as well that's posted on the Investor Relations page of our website. Today's call will feature prepared remarks from our President and CEO, Robert Eifler, as well as our CFO, Richard Barker. We also have with us Blake Denton, Senior Vice President of Marketing and Contracts; and Joey Kawaja, Senior Vice President of Operations.

During this call, we may make certain forward-looking statements regarding various matters related to our business and companies that are not historical facts. Such statements are based upon current expectations and assumptions of management and are, therefore, subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Several factors could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements, including those described in our earnings release and in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC. Noble does not assume any obligation to update these statements. Also note, we are referencing non-GAAP financial measures on the call today. You can find the required supplemental disclosure for these measures, including the most directly comparable GAAP measure and associated reconciliation in our earnings report issued yesterday, furnished to the SEC and posted to our website.

Now I'll turn the call over to Robert Eifler, President and CEO of Noble.

Robert Eifler

Thanks, Ian. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I'll open today's call with a brief summary of our third quarter highlights and recent contract awards, followed by an update on the market. Richard will then cover the financials before I wrap up with closing remarks and move to Q&A.

During the third quarter, we earned adjusted EBITDA of $201 million with free cash flow of negative $48 million. We again distributed our $0.50 quarterly dividend. And yesterday, our Board declared a $0.50 per share dividend for the fourth quarter, maintaining our consistent return of capital program. The 5% sequential decrease in adjusted EBITDA resulted from a number of rigs transitioning between contracts, including the BlackRhino Discoverer Venturer and Globetrotter I, each of which had fewer days on contract in Q3 compared to Q2. These were partially offset by the resumed operation of our 2 rigs in Brazil in July as well as the Gerry de Souza's contract startup in August.

Additionally, the Voyager commenced its 4-year contract with Shell in the U.S. Gulf in late September. Final commissioning and weather delays resulted in a few weeks later start than planned for this contract, but we are excited to now be underway with the Voyager. Next, in our major project start-up queue, we are looking forward to the Valiant and Discoverer scheduled commencements right around the end of this year on their long-term development campaign for Total and Suriname. Over the past 3 months, we have secured new contract awards totaling approximately $560 million. First, the Noble BlackRhino has been awarded a 4-well contract with TotalEnergies in Nigeria, expected to commence within the next few weeks. This program has an estimated duration of 150 days and includes options for up to 6 additional wells.

Next, I'm pleased to announce that the Noble Faye Kozack was awarded a 5-well contract with Tullow in Ghana scheduled to commence in mid-2027 with an estimated duration of approximately 250 days. Also, the sixth-generation drillship Noble Globetrotter I has been awarded a contract with TotalEnergies for light well intervention services under a 3-year capacity reservation agreement with the first scope of work scheduled to commence in Angola in Q3 or Q4 next year. However, prior to this, the rig is scheduled for a recently awarded 2-well exploration campaign with Occidental in Peru, commencing in Q2 2027, which leverages the Globetrotter's unique capability to transit through the Panama Canal in order to access this remote drilling location.

Continuing with Frontier exploration in South America, the Noble BlackHawk has been awarded a 1-well contract with Apache in Uruguay that's expected to commence in Q4 2027 with an estimated duration of 50 days and a contract value of approximately $25 million, plus additional fees for mobilization and demobilization. This contract value does not include MPD or any other additional services. As the BlackHawk is winding down its current work in the U.S. Gulf, we are continuing to pursue promising leads for additional work for the rig next year prior to the Uruguay move.

Switching over to Norway. The Noble Interceptor has been awarded a 1-well contract with DNO that's expected to commence in mid-2027 with an estimated duration of 50 to 90 days. Upon completion of this campaign, the rig is scheduled to commence its P&A program of ConocoPhillips at the Ekofisk field in the third quarter of 2027 with an estimated duration of 670 days. And finally, the Noble Intrepid was awarded a 1-well contract with ORLEN that is expected to commence in Q3 2027 with estimated duration of 40 to 60 days. With these awards, our current backlog stands at $6.7 billion.

Now zooming out for a moment to the broader market, recent trends across both the deepwater and harsh environment sectors are continuing to gain nice momentum. Deepwater contracting activity, which started out the year gangbusters, but then hit a quiet patch between May and July has recently reaccelerated over the past few months with a spate of recent pictures confirming day rate recovery for high-end drillships in the mid-400s up to $500,000 per day as current utilization, but to a greater extent, anticipated 2027 utilization continues to firm up. Today, 109 out of 110 marketed UDW rigs are contracted currently or in the future, putting contracted utilization at 99%. This eclipses the 2024 high watermark of 105 contracted rigs.

Meanwhile, current working utilization of 88 rigs is still 10 units shy of the 2024 peak. However, we've reached a point now where the number of pending contract start-ups for currently idle rigs modestly exceeds the number of contract rollovers over the next 6 months or so. This creates a fulcrum for the active rig count to potentially expand over the next few quarters as additional contracts are executed. So the deepwater market is firming up, consistent with what we've been anticipating for a while now. And this is despite the fact that we really haven't seen any real demand response so far this year resulting from higher commodity prices.

On the contrary, the U.S. Gulf, which has historically been one of the more demand elastic markets through commodity cycles, has been a noted soft spot amidst an otherwise robust global market throughout this year. Having now retreated from a low 20s rig count in recent years to a mid-teens market presently, we do expect to see some improvement in the Gulf next year based on current customer dialogue. However, the departure of a few drillships to other regions could likely create upward day rate pressure in order to drive capacity back into the Gulf, perhaps similar to recent dynamics in the harsh semi market, which in recent years have seen Norway rig count dip from the high teens down to the mid-teens and now back up to the high teens, with strengthening Norway day rates accompanying the migration of capacity back into that region.

And speaking of Norway, I would further add that the Norwegian jack-up market is also developing into a bright spot for Noble. With our recent contract awards, we now have 4 of our 5 CJ-70 jack-ups contracted in Norway for the first time, which is very promising improvement with leading-edge day rates ranging between $230,000 to $300,000, depending on work mode and contract duration. Currently, the Noble Innovator, the older unit among our 5 CJ-70s, remains uncontracted, but we're optimistic about contracting that rig fairly soon in the Southern North Sea where day rates are structurally lower. But nonetheless, this gives us a clear shot at approaching effectively full utilization for our jack-ups in 2027.

Now I'll pass the call over to Richard for the financial review.

Richard Barker

Thank you, Robert, and good morning or good afternoon all. In my prepared remarks today, I will briefly review the highlights of our third quarter and then discuss the outlook for the fourth quarter of 2026. Starting with our quarterly results. Total revenue for the third quarter totaled $684 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $201 million and adjusted EBITDA margin was 28%. Q3 cash flow from operations was $144 million. Capital expenditures were $192 million and free cash flow was negative $48 million. On October 9, the sale of the Noble Resolve was finalized with the company receiving the remaining $45 million of proceeds. Further, the sale of the Noble Globetrotter II is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2026 for a purchase price of $38 million.

As summarized on Page 5 of the earnings presentation slides, our total backlog as of October 26 stands at $6.7 billion. As a reminder, our backlog excludes reimbursable revenue as well as revenue from ancillary services. Our current backlog includes approximately $2.6 billion that is scheduled for revenue conversion in 2027. Referring to Page 9 of the earnings presentation, we have narrowed our full year 2026 guidance for total revenue to between $2.85 billion and $2.9 billion compared with $2.8 billion and $2.9 billion previously and adjusted EBITDA to between $850 million and $900 million compared with $850 million and $925 million previously, as we expect Q4 to be slightly lower compared to Q3. Revenue was narrowed around the high end of the previous range, driven by higher reimbursable revenue than previously expected, while adjusted EBITDA was narrowed around the lower end, driven primarily by slightly later starts for the Voyager and the Valiant.

Additionally, capital expenditures guidance for this year has been increased to $680 million to $705 million compared with $615 million to $665 million previously, with the increase primarily attributable to higher customer reimbursable capital expenditures, which is now expected to total roughly $65 million for this year as compared to $25 million previously. If you exclude this $14 million increase in reimbursables, our capital expenditures guidance would have otherwise remained within the prior range.

Looking ahead, while we plan to provide formal guidance for 2027 on next quarter's earnings call, I would like to share the following directional indicators. In the first quarter of 2027, adjusted EBITDA is expected to be broadly similar to Q4 2026. We then expect adjusted EBITDA to build meaningfully higher each quarter as we progress through the year, supported by the buildup in our contract coverage with already approximately 20% more capacity under contract in the second half of the year compared to the first half. This is a noteworthy contrast with recent years in terms of the general slope of our contract coverage for the following year. And as Robert referenced, there were several opportunities we are actively chasing that start around the middle of the year that would build on top of this already existing contracted step-up.

With that, I'll now pass it back to Robert for concluding remarks.

Robert Eifler

Thanks, Richard. To wrap up, we're excited about both the direction of the market as well as Noble's positioning as we ramp into some pretty meaningful contract start-ups over the coming quarters. The gathering drumbeat of exploration and reserve replacement imperatives facing resource holders, combined with a forward oil price curve that has been melting higher through the end of the decade, have the potential to drive meaningfully tighter market conditions ahead. And specifically, based on the robust portfolio of contract opportunities in front of us today, it's not hard to draw a straight line to a fully sold-out market for high-end deepwater rigs within the next year or so.

Even under a more moderate demand scenario, however, we believe Noble is exceptionally well positioned to execute our playbook, generate durable free cash flow and deliver substantial returns of capital to shareholders through cycle. The backlog that we've secured since last year provides a clear line of sight to a significant cash flow inflection as we move through 2027 with, as Richard just highlighted, approximately 20% more contracted fleet capacity already secured in the second half of 2027 versus the first half of the year. And of course, we will have some opportunity to build on this.

This dynamic, in particular, is clearly supportive of an improving outlook, especially when contrasted against comparable measurements in recent years when the deepwater outlook has been burdened by significant white space problems. For example, 12 months ago, our H2 2026 days under contract were 5% shy of H1 2026 contracted days. And 24 months ago, when we were in the relatively early days of the emerging downdraft in the market, our contract coverage in the second half of 2025 was at that time actually 33% below H1 2025. So today's situation does indeed represent a very pronounced upturn in the shape of our backlog heading into 2027. And with that as a launch point, we're increasingly excited about the opportunity set in front of us.

Operator, we're ready to go to questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram from JPMorgan.

Fragen und Antworten

Arun Jayaram

Hey, Robert and team, I was wondering if you could comment a little bit on kind of changes you've seen in the overall market since last quarter and you gave your semiannual review of rig demand. We have noted that the contracted rig count has moved up by about 5 rigs. I think last quarter was about 104 and now you're at 109. So maybe just comment on what you're seeing that's evolved over the last, call it, 90 days and maybe add a little bit of regional color as well. Appreciate that.

Robert Eifler

Sure, Arun. Thanks for the question. Yes, we noted in the prepared remarks that we were in a bit of a doldrum over the summer months on fixtures. And you've referenced those that are known where we're up a handful of rigs on total demand rig count. What I would say is beyond that, we see now, I think, 2 to 3 opportunities in the U.S. Gulf that are somewhat closer to firm than we saw 90 days ago, which is obviously extremely helpful. And we see everything moving forward as planned through Kercom in West Africa. And then I would also note probably the other most notable change is we're feeling very good about demand emerging in India. So if you recall, there was some excitement there and then some tenders were postponed. And since that time, it appears obvious to us that, that I don't know, anywhere from 2, but probably something closer to 4 good drillships are going to be needed in India starting in late '27 and '28. I think those are probably the most bullish changes that we've seen in the last 90 days are U.S. and India.

Arun Jayaram

Great. And my follow-up, Robert, we're still in the early innings of kind of the OFS earnings season. But one of the themes that SLB highlighted on their call is just this renewed interest in exploration. And we did note in your updated fleet status report some opportunities in Peru and Uruguay. So I was wondering if you could just comment on general trends you're seeing in exploration over the next, call it, 12 to 18 months? And maybe part and parcel with that, are you seeing opportunities for chunkier development opportunities, which could have a little bit of a longer-term duration to those versus some of the exploration opportunities that tend to be a couple of wells here or there?

Robert Eifler

Yes. So I think if you just walk back through just a tiny history of exploration, I think it was around 3 years ago where we started seeing our customers start to talk a little bit more about reserve replacement. And then in the last 18 months or so, we started to see some real movement among our customers and increased narrative, specifically in exploration. There have been some, I guess, public commitments by our customers and statements around a return to exploration in various different regions. 2027 has been cited as a year where we would perhaps see an uptick in some of the, call it, wildcat exploration, which I think is where you really want to be looking right now. And so I would agree completely with what SLB said. What -- the only thing I would say is in terms of what has hit our business, you've seen the couple you referenced on our fleet status. It's not a needle mover, I don't think, for our business from where we sit today. We're very hopeful that as our customers exit budget season with really good cash flow during 2026 that we might actually see some more evidence of wildcat exploration in 2027.

And then you asked about development. This cycle has been -- I don't know if it's been reversed, but most of what's driven the demand heretofore has been development projects. So it's like a lot of things that have been delayed in years past are now starting up. That's what's driving, I think, the global uptick that we see in late and have referenced in late '27. And so -- and included in a lot of that, I think the exploration we've seen over the last couple of years has all been infield exploration. And so we watch that closely. That -- the percentage of our wells that's infield exploration has stayed relatively flat over the last few years. And so we're like you, really watching some more wildcat type exploration closely, and we're hopeful that, that starts to define the next phase in this uptick that we've been calling for here. But I think '27 is when we might get a little bit more clarity there.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Fredrik Stene with Clarkson Securities.

Fredrik Stene

I would argue that you provided a relatively strong contracting update today with rates being supportive on most of these contracts, particularly happy to read and hear your commentary about the jack-ups, which have been lagging a bit with the leading-edge rates now being stronger. But I wanted to -- with rates being in a good place, I wanted to touch a bit on utilizations maybe in the near to medium term for certain specific rigs. You have some open capacity next year on the Stanley Lafosse, you have the Viking that has availability and obviously, the BlackHawk, which you've now in for a short-term contract towards the latter part of 2027. If we -- feel free to give specifics, but if you were to take like a portfolio view of maybe the drillships in particular that have open capacity, what kind of utilization should we expect on those in those areas which are now at least for now uncovered?

Robert Eifler

Yes, Fredrik, thanks. So all 3 of the -- well, all of the rigs are competing -- well, they're competing in slightly different markets. The Viking, I think it's very likely to stay in Southeast Asia. We have a number of opportunities for that rig that would close some of the gap before its long-term contract. So I think it could perhaps get up to in the 50% type range on utilization next year. But as the fleet status shows, we need to win some work there. And then I would lump the other rigs probably into more of a similar group. So we mentioned on the prepared remarks that we do have some work for the BlackHawk that we're hopeful comes through prior to its transfer transit down to Uruguay. And then there's a fair amount of work following that. And so we think between the Hawk and the BlackRhino that there are a lot of opportunities towards the end of '27 and '28, most of which are for long term -- for the long term. So we're pretty comfortable that we're going to fill in some white space on those rigs.

The Stanley Lafosse has work potential both in the U.S. and then outside the U.S. And I guess what I would say there is if it were to go outside the U.S., that's more likely to go back to work in late '27, early '28, that kind of time frame.

Fredrik Stene

All right. That's very helpful. And then as a follow-up, 3 or 2 questions, if I were to sound completely honest. The first one is with the rates being higher for ultra-deepwater market at the moment, what kind of delta should we expect for the Guyana rigs in terms of repricing and the mechanism that's at play there? I think it's being discussed it every September and March or something? And how will that play into your financials next year and '28 for that matter? And second, are you able to provide some guidance on how the agreement on the Globetrotter I work since it's more of a call-out arrangement with minimum utilization rather than a regular day-to-day contract?

Robert Eifler

Yes. So on the CEA, I guess I'd kind of say what we always say, which is it tracks market extremely well. We set the latest rate about a month ago that will start next year. And because we had one rate through all of '26 and then we have a rate that will start in late '27. We never disclosed the rates. What I would say is that it was set right around a month ago, maybe just a bit more and tracks the market very closely. And that will be a 6-month rate starting in January 1. And we've just adjusted the timing on that this year. So we had one rate for all of this year and then the next 6-month rate starts January 1. It's just easier for everybody. Over to the Globetrotter I, putting aside its exploration drilling well. The intervention project is 3 years long. It has a minimum of 150 days per year included in that. And then as most people listening probably know the intervention market is just a little bit different than the drilling market. It's planned on a much, much shorter cycle and it's more -- I'd call -- we call it call-out work, which compared to our drilling work, it is effectively call-out work.

And so the way I would think about that program is that it's roughly kind of breakeven at the minimum number of days per year. And then as call-out work fills in extra days, then we can earn some margin on top of that. We really like it. We think that rig is very well set up to kind of be that hybrid where it does intervention work, but can also head to run to some drilling wells where needed as we've seen and with a potential uptick in exploration and our belief for a long time that intervention is going to grow through time. We think this is a good contract for the rig, even if it's not going to be a real needle mover for us from a free cash flow generation perspective.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Gruber with Citigroup.

Scott Gruber

I just wanted to follow up on the last line of question. So on the Globetrotter, as you kind of cycle between kind of working and not working, can you help us on the cost side of things? How should we think about cost well working and not working? And how you think about kind of managing those costs through the kind of on-off schedule?

Robert Eifler

Yes. So not working, we can get the costs well down, call it, to about 50% of what a Tier 1 drillship might cost. And while it's working, it's only slightly higher than that, call it, 60% of a working drillship in that range. That's an intervention mode. So when I mentioned the -- that sort of cash flow breakeven to moderately better than that, that's assuming that full intervention cost load all the way through. So that's, call it, 60% of the cost of a working Tier 1 rig.

Scott Gruber

Got you. And do you have much insight today in terms of the uptime extending beyond the 150 kind of days annual commitment?

Robert Eifler

We don't right now. I mean we're hopeful that we can -- I think I'm just going to throw out there. A great year, we think, would be to be able to double that number and keep it working kind of around 300 days. And then an average would probably be halfway between 150 and 300. So just over 200 -- low 200s per day -- I mean, per year, excuse me.

Scott Gruber

Yes. If I could just squeeze in one more, too. On the Guyanese rates, those are measured against market rates, not spot, correct? And is the measuring stick a global market rate or more region-wise to Latin America or the Americas in total?

Robert Eifler

It's a global market rate for a Tier 1 drillship.

Scott Gruber

Got you. For realized rate, not spot.

Robert Eifler

Yes. So what -- yes, it is. It's -- the way I would say it works in practice, which I love the way this is set up is because it's negotiated each round. And so because fixtures are all so bespoke and almost every fixture has some sort of special story to it, all of that does go into consideration. So that kind of all gets thrown out on the table and negotiated. It's not just a formulaic average of an Excel sheets print out. And frankly, that's why I think it tracks the market so well.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Keith Beckmann with Pickering Energy Partners.

Keith Beckmann

I just wanted to ask around -- I want to dig into the Gulf a little bit more around some of the comments you had earlier. I mean, are you seeing some of the smaller independent drillers in the Gulf worry about a lack of rig supply into next year as we see potentially several longer-term programs in West Africa and Southeast Asia. And in that case, I mean, is that what potentially caused them to move some of these programs up from maybe what their expectations were before? Just any commentary around that.

Robert Eifler

What I would say is it is becoming increasingly obvious that supply could be an issue. I think, to our customers broadly, whether they're small or large. Whether someone has brought a program forward out of that, I wish I could say yes, but I'm not sure that we've actually seen that.

Keith Beckmann

Okay. And then my second question is just around, I mean, how are customers thinking about contract duration today? We've seen day rates continue to tick up here a little bit here over the last couple of months. Are they looking to lock stuff up for potentially prices rise further? Or are they potentially pushing stuff off right now, thinking hopefully, day rates come back down? Just maybe recent customer conversations around that.

Robert Eifler

Yes. I would say just tracking over the last 90 days that urgency has gone up, not down. But I would also say that we're far from a market where there's legitimate concern about not being able to drill a program because of supply. So whatever kind of middle ground that is, I think we're starting to hear more comments about how it's looking pretty tight going into 2028. The deepwater market is looking pretty tight. But we're still a ways away from the urgency we've seen in certain past cycles where you really -- where it's really driving duration decisions. I think duration decisions are still largely driven by need.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Eddie Kim with Barclays.

Edward Kim

So you mentioned that the deepwater market is firming up despite no demand uplift so far this year from higher commodity prices. Could you elaborate on that for us? Is it your view that the recent contracting increase we've seen would have happened even without the increase in oil prices and that we should have seen more multiyear contracts announced by now given the elevated level of oil prices? And if that's the case, what do you think is the main reason that the customers are sort of holding back at this point?

Robert Eifler

Yes. It's -- Ed, you're breaking up a little bit, but -- so why are the higher commodity prices from this year not driving activity? We cast it as a positive because just because obviously, more cash flow for our customers is good for us. We really haven't seen very much increasing. We haven't seen -- I don't think we've seen any demand that's arisen from this. And I think it's because, a) discipline has ruled our customers for this entire cycle, up cycle, mid-cycle, wherever we are right now. And that's not going to change. And so there's additional cash flow right now, which is good. It's not translating into drilling just yet, which obviously we wish it had. I think we remain hopeful that in '27, we'll see some additional exploration work. We mentioned that earlier. And then I would say just the nature of all of the markets this year have been, I think, a little bit baffling for a lot of people. So I think there's an understanding that the oil -- current oil price could go right back down almost overnight given the geopolitical drivers and everything that's out there. And so people aren't really willing to make long-term decisions off of it right now.

We've pointed to the middle part of the Brent curve is probably the best indicator of our business for quite some time. And as we mentioned, it's bumped up a little bit, but it has been a lot less volatile than near-term pricing all the way through all of this. And so I think we've just seen our customers maintain a disciplined and steady posture towards deepwater drilling. It's positive. I think any of our customers would say that they have a belief that deepwater is going to gain market share here through time, but it's not being strongly affected by the events of this year.

Edward Kim

Got it. Understood. My follow-up is just on your commentary on leading edge day rates on recent contracts for Tier 1 drillships now in the mid-400s and close to $500,000 a day, which is evident from kind of the recent contracting we've seen. I mean it wasn't too long ago when we were in the low 400. So just curious if sort of the progression of day rates has increased faster than you would have expected at the beginning of the year or if the pace has been sort of in line with your expectations based on the demand outlook that you have seen.

Robert Eifler

Yes. So I think there's 2 things going on. The answer is no, it's not surprising. Back in '21 and '22, that kind of time frame, we saw rates move at least as fast, I would argue actually on a percentage basis, much faster. So it happened. So I think there's a couple of things going on. One, we are plus 5-ish units here recently. The marketed utilization is up to like 99%. So probably working utilization matters a little bit more for total pricing. So I think you'd see an even a much bigger move if working utilization -- if working utilization goes up to that 99% range, which, as we said in the comments, you can see a path to that for 2028 right now. But nonetheless, people can see out and see what we see, which is not only 99% market utilization, but a working rig count in late '27 that's roughly equal to where we are today, maybe slightly up from where we are today, which means every incremental contract that's signed for late '27 adds to the working rig count. And so people see what we see and the market is pricing accordingly. I think it makes sense.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff LeBlanc with TPH Research.

Jeffrey LeBlanc

I wanted to see on the jack-ups, is the expectation that the 4 jack-ups should remain in Norway moving forward? Or should we still expect some move between the 2 sides of the market?

Robert Eifler

Yes. I think we're finally, for the first time in years, hopeful that the 4 newest CJ-70s are going to stay in Norway.

Jeffrey LeBlanc

Okay. And then the secondary question is on the global -- Globetrotter, excuse me, is the expectation that, that drillship will remain in the global marketed fleet once the sale completes? Or will it be removed?

Robert Eifler

Into the GT2, no, it's coming out of the drilling fleet.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Noel Parks with Tuohy Brothers.

Noel Parks

It's really interesting to hear what you've seen as far as continued support for exploration out there in the marketplace. And I guess that makes me think a bit more about maybe pivoting back to talking about the development side. So of course, products are generally economic at far below the current prices we're seeing. But I'm just wondering, do you -- are you detecting any greater confidence among producers may be reflected in their budgeting for 2027 into 2028, where perhaps the industry is taking the Iran war supply disruptions considerably more seriously than certainly the markets have. So I just wonder if you sense a little bit more urgency on the development side.

Robert Eifler

Yes. I got to say we have -- from what we see, which granted is never at the very cutting edge of how our customers are thinking about how it gets down to like thinking about drilling rigs. But we have seen remarkably little change in the stance of our customers. And they continue -- by our observation, they continue to use very conservative breakeven oil price assumptions, and they continue to be extremely disciplined. I think -- we're thinking about the future as if that does not change. And I'm fond of saying that we're fans of efficiency because the deepwater is drilling itself into work as it gets more efficient. But we very much see the future of deepwater working because barrels are profitable at that kind of 60s and 70s range and really below that for breakeven, but that our customers are willing to drill and develop large projects at prices that fit nicely into the middle parts of the Brent curve. We haven't changed our stance on that at all in the outlook.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Greg Lewis with BTIG.

Gregory Lewis

Robert, you provided a lot of color on the market. I was hoping to kind of get a big picture around like how we should be thinking about CapEx. I think one of the things, clearly, you guys are generating a lot of cash. I guess kind of a couple of questions around here. But like coming off of the down cycle, kind of like as you look at your fleet today, is it kind of where it needs to be for the next couple of years of the up cycle, i.e. I get we're upgrading the GreatWhite, the Claus rig and -- but like other rigs, right, as we think about where they are, could we be thinking about, hey, you know what, this rig needs this upgrade, this rig needs that upgrade? Or could we actually see kind of a move lower in CapEx as we look out over the next couple of years?

Robert Eifler

Yes. How about -- let me explain a little bit around the types of upgrades we made, and then I'll hand it to Richard and he can give you a little kind of, I guess, history of our CapEx and how it fit into the cycle. So everything we've done -- the Bachmann, we fundamentally changed the marketability of that rig by making it Norway compliant. So I think that's baked in now that rig is worth substantially more because of its increased earnings power because of the upgrades that we're performing on that rig right now. So it's been -- the rig is capable of working in Norway will go to Norway, and it's a great place for the rig. We're very, very proud to be supported by our customer in moving that rig into that region. Everything else falls into kind of a different bucket, which would be a range of, obviously, maintenance CapEx over to some more specific upgrades. But I'm extremely pleased with where we're going to sit by the end of 2027 on all of our Tier 1 drillships. Every single one of those will have MPD. We will have 2 million, 2.8 million pound Derricks that are highly competitive in the U.S. Gulf.

We've added grown non compensators where needed. And already a majority of our fleet has larger thrusters that allow them to work effectively anywhere around the globe. There's are a lot of drillships out there that actually can't work in some of the emerging markets. So -- it's obviously coming at a cost right now in '26 and in early '27. But we are so well set up with the quality of our fleet going into late '27 and '28. These are life of asset upgrades. And I actually think the timing is darn close to perfect for us on having made these investments.

Richard Barker

And Greg, just to add to that, obviously, we're spending a lot of capital on the fleet right now. That will continue, if you will, to kind of mid next year. But obviously, the earnings power that this kind of increases or the increase in earnings power around that fleet is significant. So once you get to kind of second half of next year, kind of the EBITDA and free cash flow run rate is pretty significant. Maybe just to put kind of normalized CapEx into focus here. What we said at the beginning of the year was that net CapEx would be in the high 300s to kind of $400 million range on a normalized basis. This would exclude the Claus Bachmann. We are seeing some inflationary pressure. So I think you should think about normalized CapEx for us in the high end of that range, so within that kind of $400 million kind of area type context. Obviously, that excludes the Claus Bachmann. And as you think about 2027, we probably have just over half of the Claus Bachmann CapEx to spend in 2027. So from a kind of a net CapEx perspective, I think hopefully that gives you some guidance here for kind of '27 and beyond.

Gregory Lewis

Yes. And just so as we think about that rig, that rig is starting up in March. So when it leaves for that maiden voyage, that it's good to go. It's not going to go back in, right?

Richard Barker

Correct. That is right. Yes.

Gregory Lewis

Okay. And then I did have one other question. Just -- Robert, this is for you. Just it's been interesting I mean, clearly, we've always seen rig pocket contract, right? Obviously, you guys have the 4 rigs with Exxon and Guyana. You were able to get those 2 Shell rigs. This development work, we've been talking a lot about development drilling. But I guess my question is, at this point, as we look out over the next couple of years and our understanding is there is still a couple of opportunities for multi-rigs going with one customer in one region for development drilling. Are we at a point now with the fleet where we need to start maybe being a little more selective in some of the work we're doing simply because we want to be in the right place at the right time to potentially win some of these multi-rig tenders?

Robert Eifler

Yes. So there are multiple multi rig development programs out there. And I think that's one of the things that makes us so excited going into exiting '27 because those we think now we have some clearer sight that those are going to come through. I think we've always been selective. We have really embraced efficiency and technology, as I mentioned, around the CapEx upgrades. And those really pay for themselves in development projects way more than anywhere else. And so we've targeted and really wanted to be in some of these bigger development projects. I think we've done a good job with had a fair amount of success there. That won't necessarily change for us, and there are some additional projects out there that are on the table for us and nothing is done yet. But obviously, pricing has moved and we'll continue to move with whatever the market dictates. But nothing's really changed about where we see our strengths as a company.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn it back to Ian MacPherson for closing remarks.

Ian MacPherson

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We appreciate your interest in Noble, and we will look forward to speaking with you next quarter. Have a great day.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.