XP Q2 2026 Earnings Call: Umsatz steigt um 8 % bei beschleunigtem Unternehmenswachstum

XP Inc. meldete für das zweite Quartal 2026 höhere Erträge, Gewinne und Renditen, gestützt durch Aktien, Fonds und ein starkes Wachstum im Bereich Corporate. Die Ergebnisse wurden teilweise durch breitere Kredit-Spreads, Mark-to-Market-Verluste und eine schwache Aktivität an den Fremdkapitalmärkten belastet.

Wichtigste Erkenntnisse

• Der Bruttoertrag erreichte 5,1 Milliarden BRL, was einem Anstieg von 8 % gegenüber dem Vorjahr und 3 % gegenüber dem Vorquartal entspricht. Der bereinigte Nettogewinn stieg um 5 % auf 1,4 Milliarden BRL.
• Das bereinigte EBT stieg im Jahresvergleich um 15 % und im Vergleich zum Vorquartal um 10 % auf 1,6 Milliarden BRL, während sich die bereinigte EBT-Marge auf 32 % ausweitete.
• Das Kundenvermögen erreichte rund 2,2 Billionen BRL, ein Plus von 17 % gegenüber dem Vorjahr. Das Nettoneugeld belief sich auf insgesamt 28 Milliarden BRL, davon 20 Milliarden BRL aus dem Bereich Retail.
• Die Erträge im Bereich Wholesale wuchsen im Jahresvergleich um 32 %, angetrieben von einem Anstieg der Corporate-Erträge um 117 %. Der Bereich Issuer Services stand durch deutlich geringere Emissionen im Anleihebereich unter Druck.
• XP schloss das Quartal mit einer Eigenkapitalquote nach Basel von 20,3 % und einer CET1-Quote von 17,1 % ab. Das Management rechnet mit weiteren Kapitalausschüttungen auf dem Weg zu seiner Basel-Zielspanne von 16 % bis 19 %.
• Das Management hielt abhängig von den Marktbedingungen an seinem Ziel eines zweistelligen Wachstums im Jahr 2026 fest und geht davon aus, dass die Effizienzquote für das Gesamtjahr im Jahresvergleich weitgehend unverändert bleibt.

Wichtigste Finanzdaten

Geschäfts- und operative Entwicklung

Die Erträge im Bereich Retail stiegen auf 3,9 Milliarden BRL. Die Erträge im Aktiengeschäft legten im Jahresvergleich trotz geringerer Handelsaktivität um 11 % auf fast 1,1 Milliarden BRL zu. Im Vergleich zum Vorquartal gingen die Aktienerträge um 2 % zurück, verglichen mit einem Rückgang des durchschnittlichen täglichen Handelsvolumens um rund 8 %.

Die Erträge der Fonds-Plattform stiegen im Jahresvergleich um 23 % und gegenüber dem Vorquartal um 7 %, was Verwaltungs- und Erfolgsgebühren widerspiegelt. Andere Retail-Sparten profitierten von Floats, der internationalen Plattform und dem Währungsgeschäft.

Das Anleihegeschäft blieb eine Belastung. Das Management schätzte die Mark-to-Market-Auswirkungen in der ersten Jahreshälfte auf rund 420 Millionen BRL, wovon weniger als 300 Millionen BRL auf das erste Quartal und etwa 100 Millionen bis 160 Millionen BRL auf das zweite Quartal entfielen. Ohne diesen Effekt wären die Retail-Erträge im ersten Halbjahr 2026 um 15 % gewachsen.

Zudem verlagerte sich der Produktmix im Anleihebereich hin zu ertragsschwächeren Instrumenten. Produkte mit täglicher Liquidität machten fast 70 % der Verkäufe auf der Fixed-Income-Plattform aus, verglichen mit rund 30 % drei bis vier Quartale zuvor. Diese Produkte generieren niedrigere Take Rates und tägliche Abgrenzungen anstelle von im Voraus fälligen laufzeitbasierten Gebühren.

Die Erträge im Bereich Wholesale wuchsen im Jahresvergleich um 32 %. Die Erträge im Bereich Corporate legten im Jahresvergleich um 117 % und im Vergleich zum Vorquartal um 22 % zu, gestützt durch Cross-Selling bei Derivaten, Devisen und Krediten. Das Management bezeichnete das aktuelle Ertragsniveau im Bereich Corporate als nachhaltig und geht davon aus, dass das dritte Quartal stark bleiben wird.

Der Bereich Issuer Services schwächte sich ab, da die Marktbedingungen das Angebot an neuen Anleiheemissionen verringerten, insbesondere bei steuerfreien Instrumenten. Das Management gab an, dass sich die Aktivität an den Fremdkapitalmärkten im dritten Quartal gegenüber dem zweiten Quartal erhole, jedoch unter dem Niveau der jüngsten Vergangenheit sowie den Rekordvolumina aus dem Jahr 2025 bleibe.

XP schloss die Periode mit 4,8 Millionen aktiven Kunden ab, was einem Anstieg von 1 % gegenüber dem Vorjahr entspricht, und 18.400 Beratern, was ebenfalls einem Anstieg von 1 % entspricht. Der Net Promoter Score verbesserte sich auf 66. Gebührenbasierte Vereinbarungen deckten etwas mehr als 26 % des Kundenvermögens ab.

Das Unternehmen baut seine Plattform für kleine und mittlere Unternehmen aus, einschließlich Zahlungsabwicklung (Acquiring), Karten und besicherten Krediten. Der Start der Plattform ist für den 1. September geplant. Das Management betonte, dass KMU-Kredite in erster Linie durch Sicherheiten, Forderungen oder staatlich geförderte Programme besichert sein werden.

Prognose des Managements

Das Management hielt weiterhin an seinem Ziel eines zweistelligen Wachstums im Jahr 2026 fest, gestützt durch die Umsetzung in den wichtigsten Vertikalen und eine diversifiziertere Ertragsbasis. Der Ausblick bleibt abhängig von den Marktbedingungen und der Erholung der Emissionspipeline im Anleihebereich.

XP bekräftigte sein unverbindliches Ziel von durchschnittlich rund 20 Milliarden BRL an quartalsweisem Nettoneugeld im Retail-Bereich.

Für das Gesamtjahr 2026 rechnet das Management damit, dass die Effizienz- und Vergütungsquoten im Jahresvergleich weitgehend unverändert bleiben. Bei den nominalen Aufwendungen wird in der zweiten Jahreshälfte mit einem Anstieg gerechnet, was auf saisonale Ertragseffekte, Bonusrückstellungen, Technologieinvestitionen und Kosten im Zusammenhang mit der Expert-Veranstaltung zurückzuführen ist.

Das Management erklärte, dass eine weitgehend unveränderte Effizienzquote auch für 2027 eine angemessene Annahme sei, obwohl dies keine Zusage darstelle, da XP weiterhin in neue Geschäftsfelder und Vertriebskanäle investiere.

Das Unternehmen beabsichtigt, seine Basel-Quote in Richtung einer Zielspanne von 16 % bis 19 % zu senken. Das Management geht davon aus, dass die Ausschüttung für 2026 über Dividenden und Rückkäufe 50 % übersteigen wird, wobei die Aufteilung vom Aktienkurs abhängt.

Risiken und Schwerpunkte

• Breitere Kredit-Spreads könnten zu zusätzlichen Mark-to-Market-Verlusten führen, obwohl XP den Umfang seiner relevanten Handels- und Warehousing-Bücher im ersten Halbjahr reduzierte.
• Die Emissionen an den Fremdkapitalmärkten blieben unter dem historischen Niveau, was die Erträge im Bereich Issuer Services und die Gebühreneinnahmen aus dem Primärmarkt begrenzte.
• Die Konzentration der Fixed-Income-Verkäufe auf kurzfristige Produkte mit täglicher Liquidität belastete weiterhin die Take Rates.
• Globale geopolitische Spannungen und verbleibende Marktvolatilität beeinträchtigten die Kredit-Spreads und die Risikobereitschaft der Anleger.
• Es wird erwartet, dass die Aufwendungen in der zweiten Jahreshälfte nominal steigen werden, was auf saisonale Vergütungen, Technologieausgaben und das Expert-Event zurückzuführen ist.
• Die kreditrisikogewichteten Aktiva stiegen mit dem Wachstum im Corporate-Bereich, wenngleich das Management seinen konservativen Ansatz bei Kredit- und Besicherungsanforderungen bekräftigte.

Höhepunkte der Analysten-Fragerunde

Das Management gab an, dass eine höhere Volatilität die Handelserträge im Institutional- und Retail-Bereich stützen könnte, da XP in mehreren Handelsmärkten bedeutende Marktanteile hält. Es erwartet, dass diese Bereiche in der zweiten Jahreshälfte höhere Erträge erzielen, falls die Volumina steigen.

In Bezug auf Kapitalrückzahlungen hat XP Aktienrückkäufe im Wert von 1 Milliarde BRL abgeschlossen und verfügt über eine weitere Ermächtigung von 1 Milliarde BRL. Zusammen mit den im Juni ausgeschütteten Dividenden von rund 500 Millionen BRL summierten sich die angekündigten Kapitalausschüttungen für 2026 auf fast 2,5 Milliarden BRL. XP plant zudem die Einziehung von rund 11,8 Millionen eigenen Aktien, was etwa 2,3 % der ausstehenden Aktien entspricht.

Das Management erklärte, dass keine strategische Neuausrichtung hin zu einer aggressiven Kreditvergabe aus der eigenen Bilanz geplant sei. Das Kreditgeschäft in den Bereichen Wholesale und KMU werde schrittweise ausgebaut, wobei der Schwerpunkt auf Sicherheiten, Portfolioqualität und risikoadjustierten Renditen liege.

Die Technologieausgaben stiegen, insbesondere in den Bereichen künstliche Intelligenz, Server und Cloud-Infrastruktur. XP plant die Einführung eines KI-Beraters für digitale Retail-Kunden und rechnet damit, dass sich das Kundenwachstum in diesem Segment 2027 beschleunigen wird.

Vollständiges Transkript des Earnings Calls

Vollständiges Transkript der Telefonkonferenz

Ausführungen des Managements

Andre Parize

Good evening, everyone. I'm Andre Parize, Investor Relations Officer at XP Inc. Welcome, and thank you for joining us for our second quarter '26 earnings call. Today's presentation will be delivered by our CEO, Thiago Maffra, and our CFO, Gustavo Alejo. Right after the presentation, they will be both available for the Q&A session. [Operator Instructions] Live translation in Portuguese is available, you can enable it by clicking the button below.

Before we begin, please take a moment to review the legal disclaimer on Page 2 of today's presentation, which addresses forward-looking statements. The full presentation is available for download on our Investor Relations website, and you'll find additional materials in the SEC filings section of our IR website.

Now I hand it over to Thiago Maffra. Good evening, Maffra.

Thiago Maffra

Thank you, Andre. Good evening, everyone, and thank you for joining our second quarter 2026 earnings call. I would like to begin by welcome Gustavo Alejo, our new CFO. He joins us at an exciting time just after the biggest Expert in our history and even that showed how far we have come and how much further we aim to go. Now let's dive into our second quarter 2026 numbers.

Beginning with the key highlights of the quarter. Client assets combining AUM and AUA reached BRL 2.2 trillion representing a 17% year-over-year growth. We ended the period with 18,400 advisers, up 1% year-over-year, while our active client base totaled 4.8 million, a 1% increase year-over-year. Gross revenues amounted to BRL 5.1 billion this quarter, up 8% from the same period last year. EBT advanced 15% to BRL 1.6 billion, while net income came to BRL 1.4 billion, rising 5% year-over-year.

In terms of profitability, our ROE increased 80 bps sequentially to 22.5%. Our capital ratio stood at a comfortable 20.3%, reflecting our ability to grow while maintaining disciplined capital and risk management. Also, our EPS grew 9% year-over-year, stronger than our net income growth, thanks to our capital management and payout strategy.

The second quarter of 2026 was again marked by ongoing global geopolitical tensions and residual market volatility. While these headwinds materialize with less intensity than in the previous quarter, they still impacted our results, particularly through the widening of credit spreads and a reduction in primary DCM offerings.

Without these effects, we would have achieved double-digit revenue growth with a low teens expansion year-over-year. This demonstrates that despite the market volatility we faced in the first half of the year, our core businesses continued to perform well with resilient underlying momentum. Towards the end of the quarter, we began to see signs of normalization across markets, along with a gradual recovery in the fixed income pipeline. We expect this pipeline to materialize into primary offerings over the coming quarters, depending on the market dynamics.

That said, depending on how these dynamics evolve, we continue to target double-digit growth throughout 2026, supported by stronger execution across key verticals and a more diversified revenue base. This quarter, we continued to launch products for both individuals and businesses, and our ecosystem is becoming more complete every day. We have a clear ambition to be the investment leader in Brazil by 2033 but that leadership will come hand-in-hand with increasing completeness in everything we offer to clients, this next growth phase is built on personalized service with a focus on financial, tax, and succession planning. Our goal is simple, to be our clients' CFO covering their full spectrum of financial service needs.

Moving on to the next slide. Let's take a look at client assets. During the second quarter of 2026, our total client assets combined with assets under management from our asset management business and AUA from our fund administration business totaled approximately BRL 2.2 trillion, representing 17% growth year-over-year.

On the right side of the slide, you can see how net new money has evolved. In the second quarter of 2026, we again met our soft target of BRL 20 billion retail net new money, while corporate and institutional inflows came in at BRL 8 billion. Altogether, net new money amounted to BRL 28 billion for the period. While we posted positive results and met our soft guidance, we continue to navigate a challenging environment in 2026. We are constantly improving our investment platform. And as we have mentioned, enhancing the client experience through numerous initiatives.

This combination reinforces our confidence in achieving our ambition of roughly BRL 20 billion in retail net new money per quarter on average. Related to that, it's worth mentioning that our NPS ended the second quarter at 66 points. As mentioned in our previous earnings call, we are on a consistent recovery path from the one-off events that impact us in former quarters. This demonstrates the strength of our brand and the trust clients place in our platform and it gives us an indication that we will return to historical levels over the next quarters.

With that, let's now take a deeper dive into the strategic drivers that are shaping our next growth phase. Our comprehensive financial ecosystem is built around long-term relationships. We provide service and personalized advice with excellence across every aspect of our clients' financial lives from investments to banking solutions.

Many of our clients have needs well beyond investments, and our mission is to provide them with complete solutions. Under this model, the focus shifts from product distribution to building a personalized financial strategy for each investor. Looking ahead, we see the role of the investment adviser at XP undergoing a profound transformation. The professional is no longer just an intermediary of financial products but it's taking on a role closer to that of a wealth consultant broadly accompanying clients throughout their financial journey.

Given this context, it's crucial to understand personal and family goals such as retirement and long-term wealth building. The same client-centricity logic that guides us on offerings from individuals also extends to our corporate clients. We have recently launched new initiatives targeting the business segment, always focused on delivering financial management solutions. We already have a very robust corporate segment, and now we are expanding our offering, particularly for a small- and medium-sized enterprise.

As we have said over the past few quarters, XP is uniquely positioned for this new market environment. We have the largest and most qualified adviser network in Brazil, along with a trusted brand and an innovative DNA, a combination that enables our tech lead scaling and keeps us ahead of the market.

On the next slide, we share further details on our strategy. Across every client segment we serve, our ambition is to deepen relationships, enhance the completeness of our product offering and fully meet all of our clients' financial needs. On the individual side, our focus remains on investments. We continue to deepen our segmentation, offering a specific value proposition for each client layer. We were the first to address a latent market demand and offer a truly model agnostic approach. Today, we have evolved this concept to a comprehensive wealth planning model, one that allow us to cover our clients across all their financial needs from investment allocation to estate planning, succession, and beyond.

Under this model, the charging structure naturally aligns as a fee based which continues to gain traction. We already have slightly more than 26% of our clients' assets under this framework. On top of that, we are expanding our offshore investment capabilities, and making continued progress on new product launch, including ETFs and managed portfolios, all fully aligned with our way of serving clients.

At the same time, we are adding credit to a solution shelf that has already expanded meaningfully over the past few years, during which we introduced numerous innovations in banking and insurance. I would like to emphasize that this expansion is the continuation of a well-planned strategy, one that has been consistently executed over the years with the addition of services and solutions.

For businesses, the same logic holds true, and this is where we see the greatest opportunity since these companies and their founders have long been underserved by traditional players. We plan to change that by delivering a complete, modern, and scalable offering. Just as we transform the investment landscape for individuals, we are now about to do the same for businesses. We introduced a new standard of high-quality advice, supported by technology and a complete range of products and service designed to tackle the real pain points of a market that has never been fully served. By advising these entrepreneurs with the same depth we bring to individuals, we can help them manage and allocate their cash flow more effectively to grow their businesses.

We are now expanding and upgrading our commercial coverage while launching new features for businesses. We recently announced partnership for a POS device and a credit card geared towards small- and medium-sized enterprise. These are natural extensions of our franchise and a continuation of our strategy that has been underway since 2019 when we obtained our banking license.

Finally, I want to emphasize that we'll execute this strategy with the utmost discipline, ensuring that every step we take remains firmly aligned with our capital ratios and conservative risk approach.

With that, I will now hand the call over to Alejo to cover the financial section of the presentation.

Gustavo Viviani

Thank you, Maffra. It's a pleasure to be here with all of you today. I would like to begin by expressing my sincere appreciation for the warm welcome since joining XP. I'm thrilled to be part of this journey, and I'm looking forward to contributing to our next chapter of growth.

Now let me walk you through our financial performance for the quarter. Total gross revenue in the second quarter 2026 reached BRL 5.1 billion, up 8% year-over-year and 3% quarter-over-quarter. Retail growth in the quarter was driven by equities, funds platform, new verticals and other retail, which expanded at a rapid pace year-over-year.

The Wholesale Bank division also delivered consistent growth, led by solid performance of our Corporate segment. Now let's move on to Retail revenue. Retail revenue totaled BRL 3.9 billion in the quarter, representing an 8% growth year-over-year and a 3% growth quarter-on-quarter, reflecting the impact of fixed income, corporate credit in Brazil already explained. Excluding this mark-to-market effect, Retail revenues would have grown 15% in the first half of 2026 when compared to the same period last year, showing a resilient underlying momentum.

Even with the lower ADTV of equities and futures in second quarter, equities revenue increased 11% when compared to the same period of last year, reaching almost BRL 1.1 billion. Sequentially, Equities revenue dropped 2%, while ADTV fell approximately 8% in the same period. Funds platform also posted a strong performance this quarter, growing 23% year-over-year and 7% sequentially, due to the booking of management and performance fees this quarter. Also, retail annual performance benefited from stronger contributions from new verticals, and different revenue lines included in other retail, like floats, international platform, and FX.

Now let's move on to the next slide, where we'll cover how our Wholesale Bank is evolving. Our Wholesale segment, including Corporate, Issuer Services, and Institutional revenues grew 32% year-over-year and 3% sequentially. The market deterioration that began in March and prevailed through April, combined with the lower risk appetite from investors, led to a sharp decrease in the number of new fixed income offerings, particularly tax-exempt fixed income instruments. The reduction in fixed income offerings weighed directly on our Issuer Services segment, resulting in lower revenues versus both prior year and the previous quarter.

Despite this reduced number of offerings, the Corporate segment posted another strong result, with revenues growing 117% year-over-year and 22% sequentially. Our ability to cross-sell and deliver a broader set of solutions to our Corporate clients, such as derivatives, FX, and credit continued to support our revenue growth.

Finally, our Institutional business grew year-over-year and was relatively flat sequentially. Like retail equities, the segment reflects lower trading volumes during the quarter.

Now let's shift our focus to SG&A and efficiency ratios. Our SG&A totaled BRL 1.6 billion in the second quarter, increasing 5% year-over-year and 2% quarter-over-quarter. On the right-hand side of the slide, our last 12 months efficiency ratio stood at 34.3%, an increase of 30 basis points year-over-year and a decline of approximately 30 basis points sequentially. This quarter, we delivered a good efficiency ratio against a more challenging revenue backdrop. As we move into the second half of the year, we expect the typical effects that lift both revenues and expenses, such as bonus provisions and the Expert event. Despite these effects, we continue to closely monitor the pace of our investments, and we still target to deliver a flattish efficiency ratio on a year-over-year basis for full year.

Moving to earnings before taxes now, our adjusted earnings before taxes totaled BRL 1.6 billion in the second quarter 2026, up 15% year-over-year and 10% quarter-over-quarter. We delivered 32% adjusted EBT margin expanding on both a quarterly and a yearly basis. Lower mark-to-market impacts, positive performance across several of our segments, and controlled expenses all contributed to operating leverage which resulted in a higher EBT and EBT margin this quarter.

On the next slide, we present our net income. Adjusted net income reached BRL 1.4 billion in the second quarter representing a 5% increase compared with both the prior year and the prior quarter periods. Net margin was 28.3% in the second quarter 2026 up around 50 basis points sequentially and down around 100 basis points year-over-year. And our tax rate for the quarter was sequentially higher due to the mix of results, stronger performance results from the Corporate line, and less negative mark-to-market impacts from the warehousing book.

Now let's move on to the next slide to talk about our earnings per shares and returns. Our adjusted diluted earnings per shares increased by approximately 9% year-over-year at a faster pace than our net income growth, reflecting the execution of our share buyback program. On the right-hand side of the slide, you can see our adjusted annualized return on tangible equity and return on equity. Given our lower Basel ratio, sequentially, both metrics are higher this quarter when compared to the previous one.

With that, I move on to the next slide to talk about our capital management strategy. During the second quarter, we continued executing our share buyback program. As of the end of June, we have executed BRL 1 billion and close the previous buyback program. We still have another open program of BRL 1 billion, which we continue to execute strategically. Combining the 2 buyback programs and approximately BRL 500 million in dividends distributed in June, we reached nearly BRL 2.5 billion in capital distribution already announced in 2026.

Additionally, I would also like to announce that we will be canceling approximately 11.8 million treasuries shares, represent roughly 2.3% of our total outstanding shares, further reinforcing our commitment to disciplined capital allocation and returning value to our shareholders.

Now let's move on to the second part of our capital management strategy on the next slide. I'd like to turn to our capital ratio and risk-weighted assets. We closed the quarter with a Basel ratio of 20.3% and a CET1 ratio of 17.1%. As mentioned in our previous earnings calls, throughout 2026, we will operate the business with a high Basel ratio. However, we are comfortable bringing it down to our target range of 16% to 19%, while still maintaining a comfortable capital buffer.

On the right-hand side of the slide, we show our RWA. The main growth driver was credit RWA, mostly associated with our Corporate business. It's worth noting that while total RWAs grew around 26% year-over-year, our corporate revenues expanded 117% over the same period. This shows that we will continue to evaluate and seize growth opportunities as they arise while maintaining our focus on risk return criteria.

And with that, we can move on to the Q&A section.

Andre Parize

Daniel, please go on.

Fragen und Antworten

Daniel Vaz

Alejo, welcome aboard. I hope you the most success in XP. I'd like to hear a little bit more about volatility and I guess, we're heading into an election period, and I'll be curious to hear what your expectations for the volatility and your revenues, mostly if you could break down into the Retail revenues and also for the Corporate cost. Corporate, we are seeing a very strong first half. You delivered close to BRL 1.1 billion. So trying to understand whether that's a level on the Corporate side that could even go higher compared to the first half of the year as you have more opportunities for maybe sell, hedging, derivatives effects and also protection for rates ahead of the October and November election period? And also, so breaking down in Retail and Corporate would be very good to hear about that. Thank you.

Thiago Maffra

Thank you for your question Vaz. This is Thiago. Yes, about volatility. It's important to mention that usually, when we have a high volatility, it's positive in terms of volumes and revenues for some businesses, especially when we look the Institutional desks or Retail trading clients, if volumes pick up, as we have for most of the markets between 30% and 50% market share. If volumes pick up, we make more money.

So yes, when you look -- especially just 2 business lines, Institutional and Retail traders, we expect higher revenues in the second semester. About Corporate revenues. I believe we have been investing on this business since 2021. So the business has been growing year-over-year on a very conservative way. So for example, we had this year a lot of credit events. We didn't have any exposure for these names. So we have a very high-quality credit portfolio. The derivative business is growing, energy among FX and a lot of other business they are growing. So we believe this level of corporate business, it's a normal level for the future, okay? I know it was very strong, but we expect that Q3 also is strong for Corporate. So it's part of the business that's growing, okay? So it's a normal level looking forward.

Andre Parize

Okay. Next question is from Eduardo Rosman from BTG.

Eduardo Rosman

I have a couple of questions here about the Wholesale Banking business. If you can share with us your expectations on how relevant this business could become within XP as a whole, over the next few years. If you think you already have the right teams and all the alignment in place to expand the lending business, if not, what's still needed to get there? And finally, if you could share your view about payout ratio medium-term, right? I think in the short-term, I think you mentioned you still expect to pay more than 50% in the form of dividends and buybacks. But given that you expect to use more of your balance sheet in the future? Should we expect any change in that?

Thiago Maffra

Thank you for the question, Rosman. Taking the first question about the wholesale, we don't have any change in strategy, the strategy that we started 4 years, 5 years ago. So we will continue to grow step-by-step on the business. So we received a lot of questions. If Gustavo Ale, who was coming here, like to do -- because we are planning a shift on credit basis, but that's not the case.

Of course, he has a great background on different areas of banking, including the wholesale but also retail, as you can see, all the, I would say, banking business for both individuals and companies, they are growing in the past years, insurance as well. So the strategy is to complete the ecosystem and to serve our clients as a whole, and we will continue to do that. So you guys probably saw that we announced that we are launching a platform for SMBs. It's going live in September 1, okay, with cards acquiring credit with collateral and so on, a lot of different products.

So it's part of the evolution of the business. So there is no big shift in strategy. There is no big shift on credit. We are not going to start to grow the credit portfolio in a very different pace. So it's I would say more of the same. Of course, when we compare ourselves with the other banks, we still have a lot of room like to build new business lines to grow, but it's going to be step-by-step, always being cautious on credit, always being cautious on risk. So -- and about people, I would say that we have most of the people that we need most of the capabilities. Of course, as you know very well the company, we were born as a broker-dealer focus on individuals, focus on investments, so it took us, I would say, 4, 5 years to get to this point where we are comfortable on building new business lines.

We always can bring, and we are always looking to bring people that complement our capabilities and our skills. It's always going to be part of the business. And Gustavo Alejo, who is one of this example, for sure, he will help us not only on the wholesale, but also on the individual part, on investments, and on everything.

So yes, I believe we are ready to grow and to execute the strategy that we have been executing in the past years. Not sure, if you want to share something, Alejo, I'm saying that today, he's here listening but next time he will be up to speed. And it has been 2 weeks with us, and it has been great, a lot of like good discussions already. So I'm happy to have you here.

Gustavo Viviani

Well, I'm entering my third week, so -- in this great company. So I'm energized and genuinely pleased to be part of such remarkable growth story. So the strategy is written. We are not changing the strategy and just -- will be part of this growth story, so part of the team. I saw a very strong team focusing, and very strong metrics in terms of credit, so we have all set to keep growing at a good pace and with good profitability. Very good to talk to you again.

Thiago Maffra

And take your second question about payout. As we mentioned, we have guidance to get our BIS ratio between 16% and 19%. Today, we are above 20%, meaning that we will have like to distribute more capital throughout the year. We already executed BRL 1 billion buyback. We have another BRL 1 billion open that we are executing at these levels. We already executed BRL 500 million in dividends. So totaling and assuming that we execute the BRL 1 billion that's open, BRL 2.5 billion, I believe this year, we are going to be higher than 50% for sure. Otherwise, we don't get below 19%. So you can expect more buybacks or more dividends throughout the year, depending on the price that we have during the year. At this price, of course, we lean towards buybacks, more than dividends So that's the idea today.

Andre Parize

Okay, next question is from Mario Pierry from Bank of America.

Mario Pierry

Alejo welcome. Good luck to you. It's nice to be talking to you again. Let me ask you a question on what you talked about. The Retail revenues would have increased 15%, excluding the impact of the mark-to-market, so we are estimating that's about BRL 420 million impact on revenue in the first half of the year. Is that correct? Because I think we had discussed that the impact of close to BRL 400 million in the first quarter. So are we -- is it fair to assume that the impact in the second quarter was very, very marginal?

Thiago Maffra

It's Thiago here. I will take the question. So yes, your math is right. It was around BRL 420 million. I would say it was below BRL 300 million on the first quarter and the other part on the second. So I would say, BRL 100 million, BRL 150 million, BRL 160 million on the second quarter, okay? So those are the numbers.

Mario Pierry

That's clear. So Maffra, then when we look -- I would imagine, right, this is this was an impact on your fixed income revenues. So when I look at your fixed income fees. I get an average of about 89 basis points first half of '26 down from 99 basis points first half of last year. So is this primarily -- this drop is primarily because of a changing mix?

Thiago Maffra

Yes, there are 2 effects there, okay. The first one, what you mentioned, mix. We have never seen a mix so much concentrated on SELIC post-fixed instruments and with very short term duration, mostly on daily liquid products. So that's one of the biggest problems with fixed income revenues today. But there is also when we say that we lost more than BRL 400 million on mark-to-market. It's mainly on the book from our investment banking, okay?

And if you take into consideration that there was almost no market for DCM, for debt capital market, on second quarter, there was also a huge impact on the primary market fees. So the impact on the second quarter was almost the same of the same quarter if you consider the revenue we lost on primary market and the mark-to-markets on the secondary market. So it was a very low volume. We have done less in a quarter than we do in a month, okay, when you compare Q2 with Q1 okay? So it was a huge drop on primary market.

We're seeing that stabilizing again on Q3 on a lower level than in the past, but better than Q2, okay? So those are the impacts when you look, because remember, there is revenue split between primary market on retail and investment banking, and that's why the mark-to-market is there. So there are 2 impacts here.

Mario Pierry

Okay. And just clarification on this daily liquidity product, what percentage does it represent of your assets to your fixed income assets, roughly?

Thiago Maffra

Yes. We don't open the mix by type of product, but today, out of everything that we sell on the fixed income platform, I would say that almost 70%, it's on daily liquidity products, 70%, okay, 7-0. So that number was 30%, I would say, 3 quarters, 4 quarters ago, okay? So that's the -- it's a huge change on mix. And remember that when we sell a daily liquid CD or this kind of products, we get a daily accrual on a very low take rate. So you have 2 effects here. When you sell a corporate bond, you make duration times spread upfront, when you sell daily liquidity product, you get a daily accrual on a lower level. So it's a double impact here.

Mario Pierry

And you're not seeing any changes in the mix in the short-term?

Thiago Maffra

Not yet, if you look at the fund platform, we start to see more stable level. And it's early to say an improvement but we are seeing improvement on funds. But I believe we are close to the turning point here but early to say that we are already there.

Andre Parize

Next question is from Tito Labarta from Goldman Sachs.

Daer Labarta

Alejo, also welcome. A couple of questions also. I guess following up on Mario's question on the mark-to-market. Great, I mean do you expect any more impact going forward? Do you think we're at a point that we can see Retail revenues growing around that 15% level going forward? Or could there still be more impact, right? Just to understand like what is the real like underlying growth of the Retail revenues that we can kind of factor in going forward?

And then second question, just -- there was a bit of a jump on the JV and associates, it was like about BRL 30 million, BRL 32 million higher than last quarter. Just was there anything significant there to highlight just to understand that jump?

Thiago Maffra

Thanks for the question, Tito. About your first question, we have reduced a lot our books because, remember, it's mainly from the primary book from investment banking and also from the -- what we call facilitation, the secondary trading flow book for retail clients, institutional clients.

So we have reduced a lot the book during the first half of the year. But it's part of the business. We still have a big book. Remember, we have 30% to 40% market share here on this kind of instrument. So we always keep a book, if we see another credit spread widening, the same size as happened in the past.

We are going to lose less than we lost in the first half because the book is smaller today, but we are going to lose something. We are not seeing the spreads there at the same level for, I would say, 2 months. It opens and close 5 bps, 10 bps. So that's not much, okay? But we -- you're seeing a stable level right now. Let's see if there is no big change. You should expect no mark-to-market provisions in the future. But again, the book is smaller, but it's part of the business. So I cannot guarantee that we are not going to lose or make money in the future, okay. Your second question was?

Daer Labarta

And the share of profit from JV and associates had like a BRL 32 million direct jump quarter-over-quarter.

Thiago Maffra

Yes. Remember that -- we have invested a lot of money on IFAs, on asset managers, and some other businesses in the past. Most of these businesses, they are growing. So you should expect this line to grow year-over-year. And there is a seasonality because remember, a part of this business, they are asset managers. Usually, you have performance fees at the end of the semesters. So that's what explains most of the increase there. But again, we put a lot of money on this business. They should grow over the years, okay.

Andre Parize

Next question is from Neha Agarwala from HSBC.

Neha Agarwala

Just a quick clarification on the cost side. You've shown very good control over costs, both in COGS and OpEx. Can we just dig a bit deeper to understand what are the key levers that you're using? And -- what can we expect in '27, where do you see additional room for optimization, if any? Or it will be more revenue play in '27?

Thiago Maffra

Thank you for your question, Neha. When we think about the -- our SG&A for the future, remember that at the beginning of the year, we said that you should expect flattish efficiency ratios, compensation ratios for the year. That's the case so far. Remember that there is a seasonality historically on our on our revenues.

And second half of the year is usually stronger than the first half, meaning that if we keep the same efficiency ratios, you should expect SG&A to grow nominally on -- in nominal terms on the second half of the year, okay? So on top of that, on Q3 we have Expert. So it's a big cost for us. So you should expect costs to pick up a little bit on second half. But again, you can expect flattish efficiency ratios and compensation ratios.

Neha Agarwala

And how should we think about '27 in terms of further room for cost optimization, should cost efficiency continue to remain flattish going into '27? Or do you see room for it to come down?

Thiago Maffra

I would say flattish is a good assumption but remember that we are building a lot of new business lines, new channels growing, so it's not a commitment that we will gain efficiency or be flat, but I would say flattish is a good assumption.

Andre Parize

Next question is from Marcelo Mizrahi from Bradesco.

Marcelo Mizrahi

Congratulations for the results. So my question is regarding the margin -- the gross margins also to understand. So the dynamic has been changing. So gaining margin on the fees, on the rebates, which is a dynamic of the channels. But we are seeing the gross margins pretty stable. So this quarter was pretty strong. Can we expect going forward, these gross margins going up in the next quarters with the dynamics of the mix that we -- probably the company will have in the next quarters. Thank you.

Thiago Maffra

Yes. We have a lot of operational leverage when we think about the business, and it's the same case when we think about the channels, okay? So when we look on the long run, you could expect gross margins to improve but remember that the mark-to-market also impact this kind of ratios because when we have like more than BRL 400 million on our top line that there is no correlation to our sales channels or to IFAs, it distorts a little bit the ratios, the company -- the commission ratios and so on. So that's the main explanation.

Andre Parize

Next question is from Pedro Leduc from Itau.

Pedro Leduc

Thanks, everyone. Congrats on navigating this challenging quarter. I want to go back a little bit to the SG&A side. I know you've been very clear about the seasonality in the second half. We can clearly see you investing here more behind people. But then I go back to a conversation we had earlier in the year that you are looking to revamp your tech-based, client facing, especially for massified or the base of the clients and where you were maybe losing a little bit of traction.

And when I think about this flat efficiency and you're paying out for more people, but you also have to boost the tech/AI-investment deck. So question is, are you being able to accommodate both here in these figures that you're talking about? And where are you in this upgrade that you meant to do in the base channel or service facing technology?

Thiago Maffra

Yes. Great question. When you look -- especially when you look at the first half of the semester, you see non-people SG&A growing a little bit more. And it's mainly technology, okay? So technology is growing a lot. And it's mainly concentrated on AI, on servers, cloud and so on. So we have been able to manage -- investing on these new technologies while maintaining the efficiency ratios.

And about the segment that you mentioned, we always talk about our -- when we simplify in 3 segments, the digital retail segment, the affluent clients, and the private bank clients. And you are right, we have been creating a value proposition for this retail digital clients in the past, I would say, more than a year. We are about to launch an AI adviser I would say, this month, or beginning of next month because today, as we have a more complete shelf of products, including banking, and insurance and so on, we are able to provide a good service and have a good unit economics which is a smaller ticket size clients. So you can expect, especially in 2027, the number of clients coming from this segment to accelerate. So I would say 2027, it's a good year to take a look on this segment.

Andre Parize

Next question is from Arnon Shirazi from Citi.

Arnon Shirazi

My question is still on expenses. When analyzing people expenses, I can see that salary has been increasing 23% year-over-year, while the headcount 13%, there's any change in compensation recently. Also, we see a lower magnitude of share-based compensation. Just trying to see the moving pieces here.

Thiago Maffra

It's hard to segregate salaries from bonds and total compensation and so on. So I would say the best way of looking is the compensation ratio because the mix of people is very different that we are hiring and so on. So look at the total compensation, I would say it's the best way of analyzing people costs, including also the RSUs and so on.

Andre Parize

Next question is from Guilherme Grespan from JPMorgan.

Guilherme Grespan

Two quick follow-ups on our side, Maffra. First one, just confirming Issuer Services. I think you mentioned that our primary markets has rebounded a little bit versus the second quarter but still at very soft levels compared to last year. I just want to confirm that's kind of the message for the third Q?

And then my -- my actual question is more a follow-up on the SME strategy going forward. You mentioned a little bit the credit card strategy. You have the POS partnership but specifically on the credit side of the business, what is going to be the strategy here? It's going to be credit plus working capital, the working capital, it's going to be with collateral or not? Do you plan to do government-related programs? Just want to understand the mindset for lending specifically.

Thiago Maffra

Thank you for the question. About the first question, yes, you're right. Q3, when we think about -- again, we are talking about debt capital markets, DCM, okay? If you look funds and other products, they are performing well, okay? So -- but when we look DCM that's a big chunk of our Issuer Service. It's better than Q2 but softer than the recent past or especially when we compare to 2025 that the volumes were all-time high, so it's recovering, but at a softer level, okay?

The second part, SMBs, yes, the strategy when we go to credit here. Remember that we are not aggressive even on corporate clients. So as we are going down, it's -- we are going to be even more conservative, okay? So it's always with collateral, yes, we are joining some government programs, other credits with collateral from cards, from other receivables, so it's always going to have some collateral, okay? Of course, we can have a very small revolving lines, but the main part here is with collateral and very low risk. So that's the strategy when we think about credit for these segments here. So not big risks, not clean. So we're going to go step by step here.

Andre Parize

Okay. Thank you, everyone. So here is the time that we're going to finish the call. Thank you for joining us today. We're going to keep in touch. Any further questions, the IR team is more than happy to address and see you next quarter. Thank you.