York Space Systems (YSS) Q2 2026 Earnings Call: Umsatzprognose auf 375 bis 405 Mio. USD gesenkt

Wichtige Erkenntnisse

• Der Umsatz im zweiten Quartal 2026 stieg im Jahresvergleich um 10 % auf 92,5 Millionen US-Dollar, was in erster Linie auf Übernahmen und einen neuen kommerziellen Vertrag zurückzuführen ist. Die Umsätze aus den großen Regierungsprogrammen entwickelten sich weitgehend stabil.
• Die Bruttomarge stieg um 13 Prozentpunkte auf 24 %, während die Deckungsbeitragsmarge um 18 Prozentpunkte auf 42 % zulegte. Das bereinigte EBITDA blieb mit minus 9,5 Millionen US-Dollar im negativen Bereich.
• York senkte seine Umsatzprognose für das Gesamtjahr 2026 auf 375 bis 405 Millionen US-Dollar; zuvor lag der Mittelwert bei 570 Millionen US-Dollar. Der neue Mittelwert beträgt 390 Millionen US-Dollar und liegt damit um 180 Millionen US-Dollar unter dem vorherigen Mittelwert.
• Das Management führte die Prognosesenkung auf den Wegfall erwarteter Neugeschäftsumsätze sowie auf Verzögerungen in der Lieferkette zurück, die Umsätze in das Jahr 2027 verschieben. Dies wurde teilweise durch akquisitionsbedingte Umsätze ausgeglichen.
• Der Auftragsbestand belief sich zum 30. Juni auf 592 Millionen US-Dollar, was einem Zuwachs von 9 % gegenüber Anfang 2026, jedoch einem Rückgang von 8 % im Vergleich zum ersten Quartal entspricht. Das Potenzial aus zugeschlagenen Aufträgen erreichte 1,85 Milliarden US-Dollar, während die identifizierte Pipeline 11,5 Milliarden US-Dollar überstieg.
• York sicherte sich im ersten Halbjahr 2026 acht Verträge bei einer Zuschlagsquote von 88 % bei Angeboten. Das Management geht davon aus, dass der Übergang der Regierung zu IDIQ-Rahmenverträgen das Wachstum im Jahr 2027 stützen wird, obwohl erste Zuschläge mehr Zeit in Anspruch nehmen.

Finanzielle Kerndaten

Laut Management setzte York nach Quartalsende 155 Millionen US-Dollar an liquiden Mitteln ein, um die Übernahme von Orbion abzuschließen.

Geschäfts- und operative Entwicklung

York brachte im Laufe des Quartals 21 Satelliten ins All und schloss als erster Auftragnehmer die Lieferungen für die Tranche 1 Transport Layer ab. Alle 42 für das Programm gelieferten Satelliten wurden erfolgreich im Orbit platziert und befanden sich in einwandfreiem Zustand. Das Unternehmen hat nun über acht Starts hinweg 55 Satelliten im Orbit platziert und betreibt fünf Missionssets sowie drei Konstellationen.

Der Übergang von Tranche 1 in den Betrieb nach dem Start sowie in die Instandhaltung stützte die Margen. Laut Management weist diese Arbeit eine höhere Deckungsbeitragsmarge als der Unternehmensdurchschnitt auf, da sie personalintensiver ist und geringere direkte Materialkosten verursacht.

York schloss im Laufe des Quartals vier Verträge ab und meldete in den vorangegangenen 45 Tagen zwei Zuschläge für Einzelaufträge (Task Orders) sowie einen weiteren IDIQ-Rahmenvertrag. Das Unternehmen verfügt nun über Verträge, die sich über 10 Missionsbereiche erstrecken. Etwa 23 % der Verträge entfallen auf Netzwerkkommunikation, während 77 % Bereiche wie fortschrittliche Feuerleitung, Nahbereichs-Fernoperationen, Raketenwarnung und Raketenverfolgung abdecken.

Das Unternehmen schloss im Juni die Übernahme von CELESTIAL ab. Laut Management stärkt die Transaktion die nationale Kontrolle über Solartechnologie für den Weltraum und verringert Risiken in der Lieferkette. Im Juli schloss York die Übernahme von ALL.SPACE ab und erweiterte damit seine Fähigkeiten im Bereich geschützter Kommunikationsterminals sowie bestehende Beziehungen zu Army und Navy. ALL.SPACE erhielt zudem einen neuen DIU-Vertrag und einen Folgeauftrag der Navy über 6 Millionen US-Dollar für 23 zusätzliche Terminals.

Das Management erwartet, dass ALL.SPACE und die anderen Tochtergesellschaften von York etwa 10 % bis 15 % zum Umsatz des Jahres 2026 beitragen werden. Zudem trat York dem Nightstar-IDIQ-Rahmenvertrag der U.S. Space Force bei, was das Unternehmen in die Lage versetzt, sich um Einzelaufträge zu bewerben, die seine Satellitenplattformen mit dem von ATLAS Space Operations betriebenen Bodennetzwerk kombinieren.

Auch die kommerziellen Geschäftschancen weiten sich nach dem Zuschlag für eine Konstellation Anfang 2026 aus. Das Management nannte Erdbeobachtung, präzise Ortungsdienste und wetterbezogene Fähigkeiten als Beispiele aus der kommerziellen Pipeline. Kommerzielle Verträge weisen zwar möglicherweise etwas niedrigere Margen auf als einige Regierungsprogramme, das Unternehmen geht jedoch nicht davon aus, dass der Unterschied im gesamten Umsatzmix erheblich sein wird.

Prognose des Managements

York senkte seine Umsatzprognose für das Gesamtjahr 2026 auf 375 bis 405 Millionen US-Dollar bei einem Mittelwert von 390 Millionen US-Dollar. Der vorherige Mittelwert der Prognose lag bei 570 Millionen US-Dollar.

Etwa 30 % des vorherigen Mittelwerts hingen vom Neugeschäft ab. Das Unternehmen strich diesen Beitrag, da der Übergang der Regierung von größeren Ausschreibungen (RFPs) zu IDIQ-Rahmenverträgen den Zeitpunkt von Zuschlägen und der damit verbundenen Umsatzrealisierung verzögerte. Probleme in der Lieferkette verschieben ebenfalls Umsätze in das Jahr 2027, was teilweise durch Umsätze aus jüngsten Übernahmen ausgeglichen wird.

Das Management rechnet für den Rest des Jahres 2026 weiterhin mit einer Bruttomarge im mittleren 20-Prozent-Bereich. Es wird erwartet, dass der niedrigere Umsatzausblick zusammen mit Ausgaben im Zusammenhang mit CELESTIAL, Orbion und ALL.SPACE das bereinigte EBITDA im zweiten Halbjahr belasten wird.

Das Unternehmen sieht sich durch die Vertragsabschlüsse im Jahr 2026 und die verzögerten Umsätze gut positioniert für stärkere Fortschritte im Jahr 2027. Dies bleibt die Erwartung des Managements und hängt vom Timing der Einzelaufträge, der Programmabwicklung und der Verfügbarkeit in der Lieferkette ab.

Risiken und wichtige Beobachtungspunkte

• Der Schwenk der US-Regierung hin zu IDIQ-Rahmenverträgen hat die ersten Vergabezyklen verlängert und erwartete Umsätze für 2026 verzögert, auch wenn das Management davon ausgeht, dass sich Einzelaufträge beschleunigen können, sobald die Rahmenverträge etabliert sind.
• Engpässe in der Lieferkette haben Programmumsätze in das Jahr 2027 verschoben. Das Management nannte weder die betroffenen Lieferanten noch einzelne Satellitenprogramme.
• Die Vertriebs-, Verwaltungs- und F&E-Aufwendungen stiegen aufgrund des Personalaufbaus, der Infrastruktur als börsennotiertes Unternehmen und übernommener Geschäftsbereiche. ALL.SPACE wird im zweiten Halbjahr zu weiteren Aufwendungen führen.
• Die identifizierte Pipeline von 11,5 Milliarden US-Dollar stellt verfolgte Geschäftschancen und keinen vertraglich festen Auftragsbestand dar. Die Umwandlung hängt von wettbewerblichen Vergaben und Einzelaufträgen ab.
• Übernahmebedingte Kosten und die niedrigere Umsatzbasis werden das bereinigte EBITDA im zweiten Halbjahr 2026 voraussichtlich belasten.

Highlights aus der Fragerunde mit Analysten

Das Management erklärte, dass York die gesamte identifizierte Pipeline von mehr als 11,5 Milliarden US-Dollar mit seinen derzeitigen Kapazitäten verfolgen kann, ohne dass weitere Übernahmen erforderlich sind. Die Pipeline umfasst kommerzielle, klassifizierte und nicht-klassifizierte Regierungsaufträge.

Bezüglich staatlicher Aufträge verwies das Management auf die Budgetzuweisungen für das Geschäftsjahr 2027 als Indikator für den potenziellen Umfang künftiger Programme, darunter das Space Data Network, Raketenverfolgung und Raketenwarnung. Derzeitige Einzelaufträge werden im Allgemeinen aus den Budgets für 2025 und 2026 finanziert.

York bestätigte, dass die jüngsten Zuschläge für das Space Data Network als Other Transaction Agreements strukturiert waren. Laut Management unterstützt die Auswahl den Wettbewerb unter bewährten Anbietern, nannte jedoch vorbehaltlich der Zustimmung des Kunden keine weiteren Details.

Das Unternehmen hat vorab mit dem Aufbau von Lagerbeständen begonnen, um die Lieferzeiten zu verkürzen. Das Management erklärte, dass bereits bestelltes Material neu gewonnenen Programmen zugewiesen wird, was die Lieferpläne im Vergleich zu Konkurrenten verbessert, die möglicherweise erst von Grund auf mit der Beschaffung beginnen müssen.

Bei ALL.SPACE hob das Management geschützte Kommunikations- und Ortungsfunktionen in gestörten Umgebungen hervor, insbesondere für unbemannte Systeme. York erwartet, dass diese Anwendungen in den nächsten zwei bis drei Jahren Wachstumspotenzial bieten. Der Auftragsbestand von ALL.SPACE war in der Gesamtsumme zum 30. Juni nicht enthalten und dürfte bei der Berichterstattung über den Auftragsbestand des dritten Quartals zu einem leichten Anstieg führen.

Vollständiges Transkript der Telefonkonferenz zu den Quartalszahlen

Vollständiges Transkript der Telefonkonferenz

Ausführungen des Managements

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the York Space Systems Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]

I will now hand the conference over to Christopher Evenden, Vice President of Investor Relations. Chris? Please go ahead.

Christopher Evenden

Hello, everyone, and welcome to York Space Systems Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. With me on the line are Dirk Wallinger, our CEO; and Brian Frantz, our Chief Accounting Officer and Interim CFO. Please note that our earnings release is available at ir.yorksystems.com. In addition, we have posted an earnings presentation to accompany our prepared remarks on the same website. Lastly, after this call, we will post a transcript of our prepared remarks and an audio replay of this call.

For those listening to the rebroadcast of this call, we remind you that the remarks made herein are as of today, Thursday, August 13, 2026, and have not been updated subsequent to this call. During this call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP measures. A reconciliation of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in our earnings press release. We will also make statements that are considered forward looking, including those related to our 2026 outlook, future revenue and growth prospects anticipated award times, pipeline, award opportunities, backlog, M&A strategy, inventory building and the benefits of our acquisitions. Listeners are cautioned that our forward-looking statements involve certain assumptions, and are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties that can cause our actual results to differ materially from our current expectations.

We advise listeners to review the risk factors and other discussions included in our 2025 annual report on Form 10-K, the 2026 Form 10-Qs and our other filings with the SEC. After the completion of our prepared remarks, we will open the call for questions.

Now I'll turn the call over to Dirk.

Dirk Wallinger

Thanks, Chris. Hello, and welcome to York's Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. I appreciate you taking the time to join us. Before we get into the highlights from the quarter, I want to take a moment to introduce Brian Frantz, who will be stepping into the role of Interim Chief Financial Officer at York, Brian joined us as the Chief Accounting Officer and played a central role in our transition to a public company with direct responsibilities for financial reporting, internal controls and SEC compliance. Brian brings more than 3 decades of financial leadership experience across public and private companies, including prior service as CFO of [ RE/MAX ] International and Principal Financial Officer of [ Intrepid Potash ]. You'll hear from Brian on the quarter's financials a bit later in the call.

Q2 was another strong quarter of execution for York. We launched 21 more satellites, added new customers and expand our portfolio mission capabilities. Revenue for the quarter was $92.5 million, up 10% year-over-year. Our backlog stood at $592 million and potential on awarded contracts reached $1.85 billion. Our identified pipeline now exceeds $11.5 billion. York's earnings deck describes these metrics, including potential on awarded contracts in more detail.

In the first half of 2026, we secured 8 contract wins at an 88% win rate on our proposals. We added 4 more contracts in this quarter with 2 task order wins and another IDIQ ad in the last 45 days alone, a reflection of both the breadth of our capabilities and the confidence customers place in our performance on [ Orbion ]. We have expanded our national security customer base, including 3 new IDIQ vehicles, expanding our contracts to cover 10 different mission areas. Those IDIQs have generated 2 delivery orders, an early signal of how quickly today's onboarding contracts are now converting into real mission work.

A few of these wins are worth calling out in more detail. In July, York was awarded a task order contract on oneof our highly selective IDIQs to deliver military system capabilities built on commercial technologies. That award reinforces our position as one of the only providers with an on-orbit performance record for operational systems and the commercial manufacturing scale required to support the resilient multi-vendor supply base the government is asking for.

In early August, we were awarded another IDIQ task order for an on-orbit demonstration. The rapid conversion from IDIQ selection to multiple funded delivery order contracts in a matter of weeks reflects real near-term demand for York's proven in production spacecraft as the government scales their space-based architecture. We are encouraged that the government remains committed to a resilient supply base for their architectures, which strengthens the industrial base and delivers better outcomes for the war fighter. Our proven performance in orbit and ability to deliver at scale for operational systems is transitioning well into contract orders for next-generation systems that are aligned with current budget allocations.

Resilient assured or [ GM-resistant ] communications are increasingly becoming an in-theater need, and that need is only expected to grow as unmanned systems play a more decisive role in modern conflict their effectiveness and survivability depend directly on assured resilient communications across every phase of the mission in an environment where air superiority is denied space will be the enabling network for those communications and by extension, the foundation of the defense architectures that will define the next area of war fighting.

The character of conflict has changed and the architectures underneath it have to change with it. Whoever controls the Assured communication systems controls the fight. That is why GM-resistant communications and alternative PNT matter, and it's why York is investing where we are. We are built for a war fighter who will operate across manned and unmanned formations, and we intend to be the prime that delivers the space-based infrastructure they will count on to win.

The changing character of conflict leads directly into our acquisition of ALL.SPACE completed in July. ALL.SPACE, a leader in assured communications terminals extends our reach into adjacent markets and positions us to capture the accelerating demand for unmanned systems across every domain. ALL.SPACE also brings established contracts with the Army and Navy with momentum already carrying into a new DIU contract and $6 million follow-on order for 23 additional terminals from the Navy. ALL.SPACE in our other subsidiaries are expected to contribute roughly 10% to 15% of 2026 revenue. In July, we were selected by the U.S. Space Force for the [ Nightstar ] IDIQ, further extending our mission portfolio capabilities. [ Nightstar ] positions us to compete for task orders, integrating our satellite platforms with the global ground network operated by ATLAS SPACE operations, a wholly owned subsidiary of York. Our expanding portfolio of mission types and capabilities positions York to compete for a broader set of opportunities.

Roughly 23% of our contracts sit in network communications and the remaining 77% address noncommunication mission capabilities like AMTI, Advanced Fire Control, remote proximity operations, missile warning, missile track and more. That breadth aligns directly with where defense budgets are planned and enables Europe to compete across the full range of programs shaping the next generation of defense.

Shifting to the commercial side. We continue to see commercial opportunities increasing following our Constellation win earlier this year and anticipate commercial systems becoming a larger portion of our revenue potential and growth trajectory. Our demonstrated ability to deliver at scale at price points unmatched by competitors continue to make us an attractive partner in the commercial sector.

Shifting to execution. This quarter York became the first performer to complete its tranche 1 transport layer deliveries, launching a second dedicated [ Falcon 9 ] that put 21 York build satellites on orbit and bringing York's program record to 42 for 42 ahead of every other award. That's a track record customers see, and it's showing up directly in awards we're winning today. To date, York has put 55 satellites on orbit across 8 launches, and today, we are actively operating 5 unique mission sets and 3 constellations. That combination of scale and mission breadth positions York as the new space industry leader by a number of active missions, range of capabilities on orbit and military systems operating space today.

Additional highlights from the quarter include our [ Misys ] mission, which cleared its delta critical design review and currently remains on track for delivery in Q4. [ Nemisys ] extends York's prime integration model into GEO in support of space domain awareness, missions and reinforces our ability to prime, integrate and deliver across [ Orbion ] regimes.

On the [ Dragon ] program, we completed our initial mission objectives in a matter of months, demonstrating York's ability to deliver operationally relevant tactical communications at speed and scale. And we completed our acquisition of [ CELESTIAL ], a leading provider of next-generation space solar technology. [ CELESTIAL ] secures domestic control of a critical element of our supply chain currently controlled by China, reduces geopolitical exposure across our manufacturing base, positions us to leverage advanced solar capabilities as a differentiator of future spacecraft designs.

Before I turn it over to Brian to review the financials in depth I want to speak briefly to what we're seeing across the broader U.S. government acquisition landscape and what it means for York's growth trajectory. Through 2026 and increasingly in Q2, we've observed a meaningful shift in how the U.S. government is acquiring Spacecraft systems, moving away from a rapid succession of larger RFPs to an IDIQ approach that is slow to start, but often faster to accelerate task orders later. This approach has a longer cycle to award the IDIQs initially. But once IDIQs are awarded, task orders can be awarded in a more rapid succession without the need for follow-on competitive award cycles. They generally pursue smaller on-ramp task order contracts to start, but can lead to multibillion dollar opportunities later for true operational systems.

Highly selective IDIQs are more desirable as the budget size and smaller vendor pool represents significant revenue potential for awardees on discriminating IDIQs. York has been awarded 6 contracts under this new approach in 2026 alone, and we view them as significant drivers of growth into 2027, as the follow-on programs advance. York's contract wins range across very large swaths of capabilities that align well with the current budget allocations we are seeing. This shift is changing our expectations of award timing. And as a result, we are revising our full year 2026 revenue guidance.

Brian will walk through the specifics in a moment, with our backlog potential on awarded contracts totaling $1.85 billion and an identified pipeline exceeding $11.5 billion, the opportunity in front of us is substantial.

To wrap up, York is leading the new space industry, actively operating 5 unique missions and 3 constellations simultaneously. We are executing consistently for our customers, improving our hardware on-orbit and operational missions. We have secured 8 new contracts in 2026 alone at an 88% win rate and we continue to expand our capabilities in line with where defense budgets are being planned. The opportunity in front of us is substantial, and York is positioned to capture it and deliver meaningful long-term value.

With that, I'll turn it over to Brian.

Unknown Executive

Thank you, Dirk. As Dirk discussed, we executed well during the second quarter, closed 2 acquisitions since our last call and added more new customers that have the potential to be very large in 2027 and 2028.

Our revenue for the quarter was $92.5 million, up $8.7 million or 10% compared to the same quarter in the prior year. The increase was primarily driven by our revenues from acquisitions completed in the second half of 2025 in the first half of 2026 as well as our new commercial contract, which we announced earlier this year. Revenue from our major government programs remained relatively flat year-on-year.

Gross margin was 24% in the current year quarter, up 13 percentage points from the year ago quarter, which was negatively impacted by an EAC adjustment. Our second quarter '26 gross margin also reflects higher gross margin contribution from our post-launch operations and support work. We expect our gross margin for the balance of the year to remain in the mid-20% range.

Similarly, gross margin dollars were $22.2 million in the quarter, up $9.5 million in the year ago quarter, driven by improved margin percent on a larger revenue figure. Contribution margin expanded 18 percentage points to 42% in the second quarter, driven by a richer mix of newer vintage programs, which tend to have higher margins than our older vintage programs. Our direct materials expenses decreased in Q2 2026 over the second quarter of 2025 as we approach the end of our production for our Tranche 1 transport layer satellites which in its post-launch phase is incurring mostly labor costs.

As we now have all 42 of these satellites successfully in orbit and healthy, our operations and sustainment revenues will increase and they have a higher contribution margin than the company average. Contribution margin dollars almost doubled, growing to $39.3 million from $20.3 million last year driven by the aforementioned mix in the EAC adjustment in the second quarter of 2025.

Turning to operating expenses. Our SG&A plus R&D expenses increased 52% compared to the prior year quarter. This was primarily driven by an increase in overall headcount, increases in overhead related to the public company uplift and incremental salaries and costs related to the acquisitions of ATLAS, Orbion and to a lesser degree, [ CELESTIAL ], which was in June of 2026. Naturally, we will see an increase in SG&A expenses in the second half related to our acquisition of ALL.SPACE, which occurred in July. Most of the increase in our public company SG&A infrastructure is complete and we expect those costs to only increase slightly through the rest of 2026.

Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was a loss of $9.5 million, slightly elevated from the $8.9 million loss from the prior year quarter due to an increased operating expenses offsetting profitability growth in our gross margins. Our liquidity remains strong. As of June 30, we had cash and cash equivalents of $534 million, and our $150 million revolving credit facility remains fully available to us for total liquidity of $684 million. I would note that we used $155 million of our cash subsequent to quarter end as we closed the Orbion acquisition.

Our backlog stood at $592 million as of June 30, down 8% from $642 million at the end of the first quarter, but up 9% from the start of the year, primarily due to our new commercial contract as well as a contract modification that occurred in the second quarter of 2026. Subsequent to quarter end, we also received task orders related to one of our IDIQs, and we believe those task orders will lead to larger awards in 2027.

As Dirk mentioned earlier, we are bringing down our full year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $375 million to $405 million. This new midpoint of $390 million is $180 million below our prior midpoint of $570 million. As we said on our previous call, about 30% of the prior midpoint of $570 million was new business. Given the contract environment that Dirk referenced, we had removed the new business from our guidance for the rest of the year. The remainder relates to supply chain issues where revenue is moving to the right into 2027, which is partially offset by revenue from our new acquisitions. We believe the right word shift of 2026 revenue plus the 8 contracts we've already won so far this year position us to take significant strides in 2027 as the government looks to accelerate capabilities with proven providers.

Our reduction in revenue guidance will also negatively impact adjusted EBITDA in the second half. Further, the acquisition of [ Celestial ], which will bolster our supply chain certainty of solar cells, in the acquisition of Orbion to expand our total addressable market will further impact adjusted EBITDA in the second half.

And now I'll hand it back to Dirk for a quick summary.

Dirk Wallinger

Thanks, Brian. So to conclude, the U.S. government has shifted their acquisition approach from a rapid succession of larger RFPs to an IDIQ approach that is slow to start, but faster to accelerate task orders later. This acquisition approach has shifted significant contributions to revenue on our [ 11.5 ] identified pipeline into the '27 time frame. We are winning opportunities with an 88% win rate and 8 new contracts in 2026. We have added 4 more contracts this quarter with 2 task order wins and another IDIQ ad in the past 1.5 months alone.

With our new wins, we have increased York's potential on awarded contracts which now exceeds $1.85 billion. York's very broad range of proven capabilities position us well and are aligned with anticipated budgets. We remain bullish on our ability to win across acquisition approaches, budgets and mission capabilities with our proven production and ability to deliver mission successfully.

And now I'll hand it back to the operator for questions. Operator?

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of John Godyn with Citi.

Fragen und Antworten

Unknown Analyst

This is [ Bradley Oster ] on for John Godyn. So I want to dial in on the government contracts you secured this year under the new acquisition approach. Could you just talk a little bit more about what your expectations are on the shape and potential size of these over the fullness of time as you convert them to like the larger operational programs?

Dirk Wallinger

Sure. So I think the best indicator of what you can expect from size is probably the 27 Department award, sorry, the President's budget in the sense of like it's not going to provide the exact numbers, but it's going to give you an idea, right, of kind of generally how much are they looking to spend on space data network? How much are they looking to spend on missile track missile warning, et cetera. So I think that's the best way to kind of look at what these OTAs could eventually lead to.

Right now, the contract awards are going to -- are basically being -- coming off of '25 and '26 budgets. But like I said, the '27 gives you some idea of trajectory. Some of those wins were for the space data network and so that's a pretty easy math [indiscernible] kind of what the government is looking to spend on the space data network in the coming years and that became public recently, like 10 minutes before this call. And we'll expand on that a little bit more with our own PR in the coming days as that becomes approved from the customer as well. But I think that's the best way to look at it.

Unknown Analyst

Got it. I appreciate that color. And I just want to circle up on the $11.5 billion pipeline opportunities from the government contracts you're looking at today. Is it in your kind of organically participate in today? Or would more potential M&A movements, a lot even bigger chunks of that pipeline for you guys?

Dirk Wallinger

Yes. So right now, that pipeline is identified pipeline. So those are specific opportunities that we are pursuing with our capabilities today with no need for further acquisition or any type of M&A activity. So those are specifically identified opportunities. I think the earnings deck, I think, will be good in the sense of it can kind of formulate how much of those are commercial, how much of those are classified and how much of those are government nonclassified as well.

So I think that might be a good reference to get an idea of where we sit, but there's no further acquisition required to pursue those opportunities.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

Unknown Analyst

This is actually Alex on for Seth. So I wanted to ask, I mean, I think you guys kind of alluded to it a little bit in the prepared remarks, but last quarter, I think you talked about how 70% of your revenue you expected to be covered by your backlog for the rest of the year. But maybe just to put a finer point on kind of what's changed. I mean, if I take the Q2 sales result and the new implied second half sales guidance, it just seems to imply that the dollar value of the backlog that you guys expected to convert to sales this year is now lower.

Curious -- I know you guys mentioned the supply chain, but curious if you could kind of help level set us there in terms of how much maybe the supply chain is contributing or if there's any kind of changed outlook in terms of how to think about how much backlog you can convert to sales this year. And obviously, there's also some added revenue from the acquisitions as well. So maybe if you can kind of just walk through those items a little bit more.

Dirk Wallinger

Sure. Thanks, Alex. So I'll kind of give the 10,000-foot perspective and commentary, and then I'll hand it over to Brian for the more specifics. Look, generally, what's occurred is that there was more of a rapid succession of RFPs and 30% of that, we thought that we would be able to contribute to revenue in '26. But because of the way that revenue is recognized, right, essentially is a function of cost it's more linear. So when you win a satellite program, you'll -- or a big satellite constellation, we'll say, you'll recognize that revenue over the course of 3 years. So what it means is that you would need to have some wins in '26, and you would need to start recognizing that revenue. And like I said, about 30%. Brian, correct me if I'm wrong. About 30% of that was go get.

And so we've done very well. The team was tasked with [ GoGet ] wins, which they did, right? Our win rate at 88% shows that we can win under any acquisition strategy. The challenge is just that all shifted to the right in the sense that they to the government, it was very important to put IDIQs in place, and it will be slower to start, which means less [ GoGet ] for '26 for us, frankly. But they're definitely showing at this point a rapid acceleration now that they have those IDIQs in place, which is all in line with what we thought we would see. It just happened a little bit later than we would have liked. I'll hand it over to Brian for his remarks.

Unknown Executive

Yes. Alex, I think that was a pretty good summary that Dirk gave us. The one thing I would add into that is we took the new business out as we described earlier and we continue to see some of the supply chain issues and that those amounts kind of pushed into 2027. That was part of the equation here. And then certainly, that's offset by what we're seeing from new revenues coming in from the acquisitions. But that's the kind of the color and the pieces between -- of all the different buckets there.

Unknown Analyst

Got it. That's very helpful. And then maybe just digging more into kind of what the supply chain issues are. Is there any maybe color you guys can kind of help us with there?

Dirk Wallinger

I think that we -- Brian, I think quantitatively, we can maybe give some insight there. I don't think we want to talk specifically about vendors there.

Unknown Executive

Yes, that's right, Dirk. We shouldn't do that. But we're continuing to monitor it. We continue to work with those vendors to try to understand and move some of that forward if we possibly can. But as we were looking at the guidance change that we needed to do, we knew that at least this much needed to come out, and that's why we pushed it out into '27.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Strauss with Wells Fargo.

Joshua Korn

This is Josh Korn on for David. I wanted to follow up on the news that came out earlier today that you alluded to in the first question around the base data network connectivity demo contract. I guess any color you could give on that? And sort of, I guess, in addition, any other changes to the opportunity set within Space data network and how that's kind of evolved since the last call?

Dirk Wallinger

Yes, sure, Josh. I'll kind of give you what I can. So it came out literally just before the call, I looked at it very quickly. And what I don't want to do is say something that can get us in trouble with our new customer, right? I definitely don't want to do that. So I can confirm that they were OTAs under space data network. I'm kind of going from memory, so I don't want to go too far there. But they are for this space data network, which is really great to see. Obviously, we had felt and been assured by the government that there was going to be competition in this network. And obviously, this is a great indication that there absolutely is going to be competition in this network. They're looking for proven providers. That's the kind of providers that were under the selection in -- under these task orders. So it's very exciting for us to see.

As you know, we were one of the builders of the transport layer. We've deployed a lot of those systems working today. And so we're in a very good position for this other kind of capability that they're looking for. I can't say too much beyond that just because I want to be careful that I'm not saying anything that I didn't. But I do anticipate that there will be more information about those released in the coming weeks.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

Adam Samuelson

It's Adam Samuelson on for Sheila. I was hoping to -- given the cut to revenues, I know you don't give EBITDA guidance necessarily, but is there any way to help frame kind of how I think about the decremental margin on the lower revenue base. If I look at the second half guidance, the midpoint, you're kind of around the second quarter revenue rate is the second quarter EBITDA performance in the range of how you're thinking about the second half? Or is there incremental pressure because of the costs that come in with ALL.SPACE and the recent acquisitions?

Dirk Wallinger

Chris, or Brian, I'm not sure where we are with kind of sharing guidance on the EBITDA.

Unknown Executive

Yes, I can take that one. It's a couple of different pieces here. As I talked about in our -- in the prepared remarks, we do think the gross profit margin is going to hang in there around the mid-20% range. And so as you're thinking about that relative to EBITDA, certainly taking a factor around that time the reduction in revenue, I think that would get you directionally where you might want to be on the EBITDA side.

Adam Samuelson

Okay. That's that's helpful. I'll stick to one question.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Austin Moeller with Canaccord.

Austin Moeller

Good afternoon. So I was just wondering if we could quantify how much of the guidance change in revenue push out into 2027 was associated with the later timing on contract awards from the IDIQs versus the satellites that are waiting on components to be sourced in the supply chain? And if we could talk specifically about what those satellite programs are and when they might be ready for delivery?

Unknown Executive

Yes, I can take that. I mean certainly, between the supply chain pushing out as well as the new revenue, I mean, those things are about equal in terms of how they are. So it's more or less a push between the supply chain and the new revenue coming in. But we haven't provided any additional color on that at this point.

Austin Moeller

Okay. And I understand that the gross margins are expected to remain pretty much in line in that mid-20s range for the back half of the year. As we get into early 2027 and some of these IDIQs start turning into production awards, should we be thinking about a similar or better ramp in the margins? Or how should we be thinking about that?

Unknown Executive

At this point, with the contract award environment that Dirk was talking about and awards are coming out literally right before we get on to this call, I don't think we're prepared yet to start talking about where '27 margins would come in and nonetheless on the revenue side either.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Koontz with Needham & Co.

Ryan Koontz

I want to touch on a couple of the opportunities you mentioned that were not really new award related. You talked about your real-time delivery opportunity. I wanted to take a gauge on that. If you could comment. And then also with regards to the ALL.SPACE acquisition. Can you refresh us on what those use cases are and how you think about sales channels and relationships there going forward for the ALL.SPACE parts?

Dirk Wallinger

Yes, sure. Can you offer more color on the first item? I got the second one is ALL.SPACE, but the...

Ryan Koontz

You had talked about the opportunity to be a short-term response delivery to customers to government customers that they haven't had that luxury before. I know it was an opportunity you wanted to pursue. Maybe you can update us on those opportunities as you see them.

Dirk Wallinger

Sure. Absolutely. So I would view this more as hey, how can an inventory potentially increased [indiscernible] and increased delivery. So yes, we're proceeding forward. Part of the IPO was to raise some capital to support inventory. We're pretty far along in our production capacity and in the technology maturity. And so we're in the fortunate position that we can do inventory ahead. And so we've begun that process. The nice part is that as we are progressing through these IDIQs and task orders, we now can kind of bucket those into our inventory orders. And so we might -- now we're starting to have the ability where we're asked for a task order, our delivery time can be slightly shorter because we already ordered those materials.

So we're definitely seeing the benefits as far as our delivery time line capability in contrast to some of our competitors who would need to start from scratch. So we're definitely seeing some upside there. We are definitely allocating from inventory already towards some of these programs that we've won. And then we can obviously choose to invest more on the back end of that inventory. So as far as recognizing scheduled delivery and also putting us in a good position to have good [ Pwin ], the inventory capability has been extraordinarily helpful. And so that has been so far very successful. And so we're happy to see that, and we'll continue to support that.

As far as the ALL.SPACE acquisition, look, we're on the other side now, which I'm very fortunate to say. It's a very amazing capability and very good demand. So we alluded to in the earnings deck that they're getting new contract wins now for more terminals. Those systems are starting to proliferate across the manned systems. But what I'm really interested in, and I talked to this a little bit earlier as well, is the unmanned proliferation.

So I think there's -- at this point, no doubt at all that unmanned systems are going to play a giant part in the future of warfare and basically the future of everything. And so Assured Communications, i.e. communications that is not jammed like we're seeing in Ukraine and in Iran and everywhere else is going to be extraordinarily important. And that's really what that ALL.SPACE terminal enables is Assured Communication in denied environments and also GPS capability as well in denied environments. And that's really going to be the key to leveraging unmanned systems.

So long way of saying they've continued to win new programs and new contracts, which obviously we're very happy about. And we're working now to start to integrate those across unmanned systems, which I think is has tremendous growth potential for us in the next 2- to 3-year time frame.

Ryan Koontz

Got it. And is ALL.SPACE going to bring much backlog to the picture here?

Dirk Wallinger

Brian, you can comment on that one.

Unknown Executive

Yes. We've included -- actually, we've not included the ALL.SPACE backlog in our number because our number was as of June 30, but we'll be updating that into Q3. So there will be a small increase related to ALL.SPACE backlog when we report Q3.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.

Unknown Analyst

Good afternoon. This is [ Thomas Rozon ] for Noah Poponak. In your slide deck, you highlight a few billion of identified commercial pipeline. Can you provide any detail on the types of mission sets those commercial customers are serving?

Dirk Wallinger

Sure. So I will I will speak to it generally because a lot of the times, those commercial companies, in particular, are very particular about what specific that they are doing. So I'll talk about it very generally. But there's a wide range of capability there. One of the sample cases that could be worked or is in that pipeline is earth observation. Obviously, that fills a giant swath of capabilities, but there's visible imagery, their synthetic aperture radar imagery, there's infrared. And those are increasingly being demanded by the government about commercially, but then also on the commercial side of things as well. And so that's obviously a tremendous growth area for us as we have capabilities in all those areas.

Other areas that we're seeing are things that used to be government-provided capabilities that the government really at this point, no longer really needs to do anymore and could shift that to commercial. So as an example, right, so commercial services to the International Space Station used to be something that NASA and the government did. But as technology developed, it became apparent that we don't need to do this. We can buy this as a service in the commercial market. Now of that, you had SpaceX and Boeing win contracts to serve the ISS. That's a similar model to what I think we will see for future growth in the commercial side of things where there's things like more precise GPS capability is something that's being demanded by the government, but also very strong demand on the government side of things, and that can be converted to a commercial service.

Other examples might be on things like weather is another area where that might have been performed by government agencies, and so that can definitely be done by commercial companies now. So there's kind of 2 buckets. One is your traditional earth observation, which that market has been continuing to grow for a long time. Government and commercial markets are good customers of those. And then the other bucket is things that historically were government capabilities cheap -- precise GPS, things like that, that we can see the government shifting into commercial markets as well and buying that as a service. So those are a few different examples. Apologies I can't get more specific.

Unknown Analyst

No, I understand. That's helpful. How should we think about the margin profile for these commercial customers? Is it largely similar to what you outlined during the Analyst Day? Or what drives the difference there?

Dirk Wallinger

I think it's largely similar, but Brian, I don't know if you wanted to add more context otherwise I can...

Unknown Executive

Yes. I mean it's a little bit lower than what we see on some of the government loans, but I don't know that it'd be enough, particularly in the overall revenue mix to call it out that much.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Dirk Wallinger for closing remarks.

Dirk Wallinger

Yes. So I just wanted to thank everyone for taking the time to hear the story. I look forward to speaking with you all next quarter.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.