Rocket Lab Stock Reclaims $55.86 After a Record Q3, With the $68.14 Trendline Next

Revenue rose 73% to a record $267.8 million, above the roughly $256.5 million Zacks consensus. But the adjusted loss of $0.07 a share missed the $0.02 loss analysts expected, and the GAAP net loss, under standard accounting rules, widened to $79.7 million from $18.3 million, including a $9.4 million charge tied to Iridium's term loan. Non-GAAP gross margin, the share of revenue left after production costs, was 38.4%.

Cash flow moved the other way, as operating cash flow turned positive at $7.2 million and free cash use, the cash burned after capital spending, fell to $23.9 million. Rocket Lab ended the quarter with $4.45 billion in cash.

Backlog, signed contracts not yet booked as revenue, rose 52% from Q2 to a record of about $3.57 billion. Rocket Lab signed about $1 billion of new launch contracts, including more than $515 million for eight Neutron missions, and raised Neutron's base price to $70 million from $55 million. Space Systems added $470 million of new orders in Q3.

Neutron, Rocket Lab's larger medium-lift rocket, is now set to fly no earlier than 2027 after voids were found in a first-stage propellant tank dome. A replacement dome has been built, and testing continues at Launch Complex 3. CFO Adam Spice said adjusted EBITDA, a measure of operating profit before items such as depreciation and stock-based pay, should turn positive within six months of Neutron's first successful flight.

Customers still signed $515 million of Neutron missions at a higher price for a rocket that has not flown yet, which says more about demand than the delay does.

For Q4, Rocket Lab guided revenue to a record $270 million to $290 million, above the roughly $265.8 million analysts expected. Its adjusted EBITDA loss guide of $14 million to $20 million, however, was worse than the roughly $10.9 million loss analysts modeled.

The $54-per-share Iridium deal is fully funded and approved by Iridium's shareholders and lenders. It still needs FCC and foreign approval before closing in 2027, and about half of Neutron's capacity is reserved for Rocket Lab's own services, including replacing Iridium satellites.

In my view, demand is not the problem, but investors will want Neutron to fly before they pay up for the backlog again.

On the daily chart, buyers quickly reversed last week's drop toward $45.96, and RKLB is now back above the $55.86 support zone it lost in October. Monday's 10.91% jump came before the report and Tuesday's gain came after it, so the results added to a rebound that was already under way. The next big test is the falling trendline from the June high, a line drawn across its lower highs, which sits near $68.14.

Rocket Lab Stock Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

RSI, a momentum gauge that runs from 0 to 100, has climbed to about 56, above the neutral 50 line. The MACD, a trend-following momentum indicator, has turned positive with a bullish crossover, a sign that momentum is shifting toward buyers.

A daily close above $68.14 would break the downtrend and could open $75.60, then $81.80. On the downside, a drop back below $55.86 could send RKLB toward $45.96.

I'm bullish while RKLB holds above $55.86, with $68.14 as the key breakout level.

Key Levels

• Last close: $62.74, up 6.6% on Tuesday, November 10 (premarket: $63.05)
• Support: $55.86, $45.96
• Resistance: $68.14, $75.60, $81.80
• RSI: 55.69, above the 50 midline
• Bullish trigger: Daily close above $68.14
• Bearish trigger: Daily close below $55.86

Why did Rocket Lab stock rise after earnings?

Rocket Lab rose 6.6% on Tuesday after record Q3 revenue of $267.8 million and a 52% jump in backlog to about $3.57 billion, including more than $515 million of new Neutron contracts, outweighed a wider-than-expected loss.

What is the Rocket Lab stock forecast now?

The bias is bullish while RKLB holds above $55.86 on the daily chart. A daily close above $68.14 could open $75.60 and $81.80, while a drop below $55.86 could send it toward $45.96.

Rocket Lab's demand is growing faster than its rocket schedule, and the stock is rebuilding from last week's lows. I expect a test of the $68.14 trendline while RKLB holds $55.86, and a close back below that support would put the $45.96 area back in play.