SpaceX Rises Despite First Lock-Up Expiry, Poised to Return to IPO Price Before Next Unlock

TradingKey - With internal negative factors fully priced in, selling pressure on SpaceX shares has been substantially released, and the stock is poised for a short-term rebound.

On August 7, Eastern Time, SpaceX ( SPCX) continued its strong rebound, rising 2.5% today to trade at $117.79. Yesterday, SpaceX saw its first post-IPO lock-up expiration. Despite initial market concerns over a sudden surge in share supply, the stock rallied over 6% that day, defending the critical $100 level.

SpaceX stock price chart, Source: TradingView

More notably, the 911 million shares released in SpaceX's first lock-up expiration account for about 7% of its total shares outstanding, valued at nearly $100 billion. With single-day trading volume exceeding 250 million shares, this indicates robust institutional left-side buying in the market. This successfully converted sell-off risks into liquidity replenishment, while demonstrating a strong pricing-in of negative news and resilient institutional buying support.

Currently, SpaceX has weathered its first earnings report and its initial lock-up expiration, largely dispelling market concerns over internal headwinds. From the perspective of share distribution, before the next major lock-up expiration on August 20, the probability of the stock reclaiming or challenging its IPO price of $135 has risen significantly, though it will still need to digest gradual, minor selling pressure along the way.

With the U.S. July non-farm payrolls data set to be released, a weaker-than-expected reading would signal a cooling U.S. labor market, significantly boosting the probability of a Fed rate cut in September. Falling Treasury yields would support a valuation recovery for mega-cap tech stocks like SpaceX, which are high-beta, asset-heavy, and valued on future cash flows; a direct rebound to that level today cannot be ruled out. However, without a macro catalyst, SpaceX's stock price could face resistance at this week's rebound high of $126.