Elon Musk's SpaceX Stock Jumps After First Public Earnings Beat on AI and Starlink Growth

For the Quarter ending Q2 2022, SpaceX revenue grew by 92% from the same quarter the previous year, reaching $7.81 billion. For the quarter, the expected loss was $0.23 to $0.26 per share, and the actual loss came in at $0.09 per share. The loss number for the quarter suggests that SpaceX would become profitable much more quickly than originally believed, particularly due to the significant inflation in 2025 SpaceX's expected loss for the full year of $4.9

The AI unit, powered by xAI’s space computing platform and its Grok chatbot, plus Cursor, is the biggest contributor to X revenue growth. It increased revenue by $818 million in Q1 2026. In the meantime, Starlink’s subscriber growth is slowing at a large subscriber base. Morningstar’s Nicolas Owens predicts a 93% growth for Starlink in 2026, down from a 229% growth in 2025. Starlink, which is SpaceX’s primary source of cash flow and recurring revenues, will continue to drive SpaceX’s financial momentum.

After the company announced its hefty capital expenditure costs for Starship, Starlink, and AI data centers, its stock fell. The Starlink subscribers and AI contracts justify the high capex, but with no multi-year contracts like Microsoft (678billionRPO)andAmazon(496 billion AWS backlog), and without the same level of visibility, discounts are warranted.

The Lockup Expiration is Most Important

On Thursday, August 6, the first post-IPO lockup tranche expires. This tranche will release an unconditional 20% of ~911.5 million shares (worth an estimated $109 billion), or approximately 1.45 times the original IPO shares. Every 15 to 20 days, 7% of the shares will start unlocking, until late 2026, when the remaining shares held by Elon Musk will start unlocking. In an interview, IPO expert Jay Ritter suggested that the $8 billion in short positions would start easing, as new buyers would absorb the supply. This structural increase in supply will be an immediate price risk.

The Musk Commentary - What Matters Beyond the Numbers

There are three key sticky numbers for analysts. The first is a more defined timeframe for the operational flight of Starship that will unlock additional commercial revenue. Second, analysts would like to understand Telsa's potential involvement with the Artemis program and more specifically the milestone funding from NASA. Last, analysts will be looking for additional information about the company’s orbital data center concept and how that may impact the AI division. Musk has remained silent with regard to whether Tesla will purchase SpaceX due to some regulatory issues.

SPCX appears to be approaching the first Fibonacci resistance located at $121.40 after having bounced off the 52-week low zone located at $104.42 - $104.83. Having the price currently at $117.80 puts it just over $3 away from this first level of resistance. The $40 reading of the RSI shows the price action is recovering from the oversold region, while the price remains fairly far from the upper band of the EMA which generally indicates resistance, set here at the $140.23 level. 

SPCX Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

Should the price break $121.40, $131.76 and $140.43 become the next resistance levels. However, should the price drop below $104.83, the next support becomes $95.70. The after-hours drop from the earnings release will likely push the price to the $104.83 support level when the market opens on Thursday, assuming the lockup expiration narrative prevails.

Key Levels

• Q2 Revenue reported at $7.81B (+12.7% YoY, 92% increase) versus $6.93B estimate. Q2 Loss reported at $0.09/share versus estimate of $0.23 to $0.26.
• Current Price: $117.80 (high: $118.64, low $116.20) (latest high $225.64, lowest $104.83 within last 52 weeks)
• Q2 Revenue growth was expected, but increase in capex similar to Alphabet and Meta, resulted in a drop in share price post-market.
• Q2 Lockup: Expiry August 6. 911.5M shares (~$109B) unlocked. Musk’s stake will be locked until June 2027.
• AI division revenue includes Q1 growth of $818M from space computing and Grok, a product of xAI and the Cursor AI coding assistant.
• Target Price: $236.71, representing a 106% Upside, based on 27 Buy and 1 Sell recommendations.
• Resistance levels are defined at: $121.40 (23.6% Fib), $131.76, and $140.43 (50-day EMA).Support levels are defined at: $104.83 (52-week low) and $95.70.

Why Did SpaceX Stock Fall After Beating Revenue by 12.7%?

SpaceX post-market fell in line with revenue beats from other companies this earning season. In the absence of demand-satisfied backlogs SpaceX's revenue beat of $880M and a reduction of Losses to $0.09/ share were offset by a sharp increase in capex related to Starship, Starlink, satellite production, and AI infrastructure. This level of capex without the multi-year backlogs compared to Microsoft’s $678B RPO and Amazon’s $496B AWS R&D is what the market wanted, at a $1.4T market cap, more than 92% YoY revenue growth. SpaceX’s growth was not the concern for the market; 27 of the 28 analysts covering SpaceX maintained a Buy position with a target of $236.71, a 106% potential growth from current prices.

What Is the August 6 Lockup Expiration and Why Does It Matter?

Rather than releasing all shares simultaneously, SpaceX chooses to tranche the shares when setting the post-IPO lockup. August 6, or two trading days after the earnings report, marks the unconditional first tranche when approximately 911.5 million shares, which is about 20% of the eligible insider shares, becomes tradable. This tranche at $117.80 is worth about $107 billion. Seven percent tranches will continue to unlock every 15 to 20 days until the end of 2026. Musk’s shares will remain locked for a full year until June 12, 2027. The 911.5 million shares will create a permanent supply shock in a market that has been previously trading less than 5% of the total shares. While it is unknown if insiders will sell, the availability of supply will impact the market. The $8 billion in short positions will begin to cover on weakness after Thursday, partially offsetting the impact of supply.

SpaceX's first public earnings report was a success, showing revenues of $7.81 billion, which is 12.7% over estimates, and losses of $0.09 per share, which is improved from estimates of between $0.23 and $0.26. Revenues increased 92% year over year. Capital expenditures increased and stock was down in after hours trading. Similar effects were seen with Alphabet, Meta and Amazon. SpaceX shares are currently priced at $117.80 and the first of the descending Fibonnaci levels is at $121.40.

The earnings report will have less of an impact than the August 6 expiration of the lockup, which will release $109 billion in shares. If everything goes according to plan, the average estimated share price of $236.71 implies an increase of 106% in the price of shares, assuming growth continues and capital expenditures are matched with contracted backlog.