Intel (INTC) Q2 2026 Earnings: What the Results Mean for the Stock

Intel's Q2 2026 results came in with $14.4 billion in revenue and $0.22 non-GAAP EPS, versus consensus. Gross margin came in just below the management's 39% expectation. Pre-earnings, expectations focused heavily on Intel's Data Center and AI segment. 

In the first quarter, the unit had delivered $5.1 billion in DCAI revenue, up 22% year-over-year, and market participants were waiting to see if an Xeon 6700P memory upgrade announcement and renewed enterprise interest in AI pushed the second quarter's growth in excess of that figure. 

Client Computing revenue and Intel Products were secondary watchlines, along with any formal acknowledgment of external foundry revenue coming from the 18A production node.

The four things analysts had been looking for in the Q2 report were:

• the DCAI revenue growth rate compared against first-quarter 22% growth
• gross margin versus the 39% management expectation
• 18A external foundry update, including if any revenue has been recognized and if any customers have been formally named
• the Q3 guidance range

Those four elements, combined, determine if Intel's 163% gain over 12 months holds and the 32% drop from its $142 peak continues or stabilizes.

Tuesday's 8.4% rally was a reaction to a trio of announcements that shifted Intel's foundry discussion from aspirational to operational. Intel announced that selected Xeon 6700P processors would support 8000 MT/s RDIMM by the time that chips became available for general shipping (in August or September 2026); such support would deliver up to 20% more memory bandwidth, 25% greater throughput, and a 6% reduction in latency compared with today's standard. Intel also announced an expanded AI partnership with Google Cloud. 

Finally, Intel confirmed that 18A had secured a manufacturing deal with a major cloud service provider (CSP), the first commercially recognized external customer to be found in volume.

Separately confirmed: Intel foundry 18A yields have climbed to ~85%, up from 65% in the previous quarter. ASML also said Intel is the first company to deliver high-volume logic chips utilizing High-NA EUV, on the company's July 15 earnings call. Both Apple and Microsoft have confirmed as 18A design partners, with HSBC analyst Frank Lee forecasting both design commitments and early revenue recognition in the second half of 2026. With 85% yields versus roughly 90% at TSMC N2, Intel foundry is no longer playing catch-up. Thursday's 2:00 p.m. PDT call will include management's quantified view on what 85% yields translates to in near-term revenue terms.

Intel has gained 317% in the past 12 months, and is one of the best performing large-cap stocks of the year. The stock hit an intraday peak of $142.35, then has pulled back 32% to between $96 to $106, as shares and the SOXX semiconductor index have been trending lower. 

The SOXX entered bear market territory Wednesday, as it has lost 22% from its all-time high. That has taken Intel from being extremely overextended to relatively fairly priced, although year-to-date gains of 163% still make the stock expensive by traditional valuation metrics.

CNBC analyst Jim Cramer said July 15 he favored Intel shares over Nvidia ahead of quarterly earnings season, largely because the stock price has corrected while the story around the foundry business has strengthened. Options markets implied a 12% move either direction as earnings were released, unchanged from before the Tuesday rally. 

That suggests that market participants did not fully discount the foundry confirmation yet. A 12% move could be the catalyst that either takes Intel above the $106 to $109 level, represented by its descending channel's EMA resistance, or could confirm that the pullback has more ground to cover.

The 4-hour chart shows Intel (INTC) running into channel resistance at $104-$106, where its 50 EMA ($106.36) is colliding with the 200 EMA ($108.32) from below. RSI bounced from oversold to 53 but has yet to flip into bullish territory. I'll want a close above $108.32 to call the channel broken, with $116.03 next. Below, the first support level is $96.74, then $89.45.

Intel (INTC) Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

Key Levels

• Q2 consensus:  $14.4B revenue, non-GAAP EPS $0.22, gross margin ~39%
• 18A status:  85% yields (from 65%). Cloud CSP commitment confirmed. ASML confirmed High-NA first
• Tuesday catalysts:  Xeon 8000 MT/s upgrade (Aug-Sep 2026), Google Cloud AI deal, 18A cloud order
• Resistance:  $106.36 (50 EMA), $108.32 (200 EMA), then $116.03
• Support:  $96.74, then $89.45
• Options:  12% implied swing either direction

INTC shares jumped 8.4% Tuesday July 22 on three confirmed updates.

First, select Xeon 6700P processors will ship with 8000 MT/s support RDIMM 8000 speed by Aug to Sept 2026, which is +20% bandwidth, +25% speed, -6% latency. 

Second, Intel expanded AI ties with Google Cloud, which is to include the Gemini Enterprise deployment across Intel AI operations. 

Third, 18A received a cloud CSP manufacturing commitment, the first external CSP commercial order. Separately, 18A has improved its yield from 65% to 85% and ASML has confirmed Intel will be first in High-NA EUV for high-volume logic.

Intel's 18A is the company's most advanced node, combining gate-all-around transistors, RibbonFET with its PowerVia backside power system. 18A is already making Intel's Core Ultra Series 3 AI PC. The company is now open for 18A external customer orders, with Apple and Microsoft confirmed as 18A partners. Intel has 85% yields (vs. TSMC N2 90%) on 18A. Intel Foundry is now operational, not developmental, and HSBC analyst Frank Lee runs a $200 price target and expects 18A design partners to confirm orders in H2 2026. 

A successful external foundry could change Intel's P/E dramatically by offering a high-growth, low-cycle business unrelated to Intel chips.

The main headline is external 18A foundry revenues or an external 18A customer with a dollar value. Intel Foundry reported $5.4 billion in Q1, however that revenue came from Intel's internal divisions. I want to see an external customer's 18A order with a defined dollar value and timeline. HSBC's $200 target is for H2 2026. Other items to watch are DCAI revenue growth (better or worse than the 22% Q1 figure), gross margin versus the 39% guide, and Q3 forecast guidance. Any comments about the 18A Panther Lake qualification timeline for Apple or Microsoft would be an additional catalyst.

The pre-earnings narrative for Intel is the best in years for several reasons. Intel 18A yields improved to 85% and received an order confirmation from a cloud CSP. 18A has confirmed Apple and Microsoft as design partners. Intel Xeon is expected to support RDIMM 8000 speeds by Aug to Sept 2026. Intel stock is up 163% YTD and the options market is pricing in an implied 12% swing. 

Data Center revenue growth above Q1, gross margin, and 18A foundry revenues, are the three variables to watch. The channel closes at $108.32. $96.74 is the support level. Either way, Intel's foundry story moved beyond speculation into reality this week. Whether it moves higher or lower depends on the EPS and other variables mentioned above.