Micron (MU) Down 20% in a Month; Is $812 Next or Time to Buy?

Micron delivered its strongest quarter ever in June with its fiscal Q3 of 26 results: $41.46B in revenue (+167% YoY), GAAP net income of $28.24B, 84.6% gross margin, and 4Q26 guidance of $50B revenue at 86% gross. It crossed the $1 trillion market cap mark on May 26, 2026 as the newest US trillionaire. 52-wk high was $1,255; $876 now. So down 30% from that high, 20 points in 1 month. No quarterly miss, no guidance reduction, no customer cancellations. All the downside so far is from two external threats that were covered in previous articles: CXMT's $8.5B IPO of DRAM in late June (concerns on future supply side) and news on US govt reports that a new HBM export control is being studied.

MarketWatch recently wrote an essay saying Micron is THE stock right now, not to say a good one, but a warning one. If Micron is truly peaking in AI memory demand, what that means for Nvidia, AMD, cloud capex and all that is very large. But 45 analysts on Micron are calling Strong Buy with an average $1,486 target (64% upside). Micron 2026 HBM capacity is all sold out now in binding non-cancelable contracts. And Micron also signed up automotive supply agreements July 16 on behalf of Qualcomm, Harman, DENSO, Visteon, JOYNEXT, Astemo and Hyundai Mobis to diversify revenue away from just the data center AI play. At least on Micron now, the bull case and the bear case are further apart than I've seen them ever in this company.

There were two stories in the last 48 hours or so that are clearly not yet included in the sell-off narrative. Micron announced July 17 it will be primary memory and storage supplier to AI startup Anthropic, offering its DRAM and HBM and storage products for Anthropic's AI deployments. They also revealed Micron invested in Anthropic in its latest round and now owns equity of the AI company. They are also using Claude internally at the company. That's not just a purchase order relationship. Micron is now in a strategic tech partnership with the world's 3rd biggest AI lab and the only company making HBM that is based in the US.

Also, July 16 signing of long-term agreements with Qualcomm, Harman, DENSO, Visteon, JOYNEXT, Astemo and Hyundai Mobis came on heels of agreements signed with GM and Ford also last week. Auto programs are multi-year life cycles. You have to qualify for these, so you can't just suddenly switch supplier. These are more predictable, less cyclically risky dollars than the data center spot stuff. Auto is also the most clearly immune area from CXMT, because auto memory needs special certifications most Chinese suppliers have yet to get. These two things are the areas not mentioned in the bear case, which focuses almost exclusively on a potential data center price cycle.

Price just broke below $868 support (double-bottom). And 50-day EMA ($900) is resistance. RSI is close to oversold at near 41, so you have some room left to go lower.

Micron (MU) Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

Support is at $812. Then $776 is next. Former support at $865 to $875 is now resistance. MU must close back over $900 (plus 50-day) to begin the construction phase.

• Current price: ~$876. Down 20% in a month. Down 30% from $1,255 52-wk high
• Support: $812 next. $776 below that. $865-875 former support is now resistance
• Recovery trigger: Close over $900 (50-day EMA). Then $950 to restore constructive bias
• Anthropic deal: Primary supplier to Anthropic. Now owns stake in AI startup after investing last month
• Auto: LTAs July 16: Qualcomm, Harman, DENSO, Visteon, Hyundai Mobis + GM and Ford
• Analysts: 45 on Micron. Avg target $1,486 (+64%). 4Q: $50B revenue guidance

Micron delivered its best-ever results in fiscal third quarter 2026, with a fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $50 billion and an 86% gross margin, both of which were significantly higher than consensus estimates. The stock is down 20% in a month for two reasons. China-based CXMT recently announced an $8.5 billion IPO to fund expansion of its DRAM capacity, raising fears of overcapacity in the long term. And a US government official indicated that the government might be considering new export controls on high-bandwidth memory. Neither event has impacted Micron's business or contracts in the present. Still, the average of 45 analysts forecasts $1,486, meaning the stock is 64% undervalued from its current price.

Micron is the leading memory and storage provider for AI chatbot developer Anthropic, having signed a deal to supply its AI systems with DRAM, HBM, and storage solutions. As part of that partnership, Micron is investing in Anthropic's latest equity financing round to gain exposure to the company's future growth potential. Micron also is using Anthropic's AI assistant Claude on an internal level. The collaboration is more than a customer relationship, as Micron is a strategic partner to Anthropic, which is the world's third-largest artificial intelligence lab. Among other benefits, Micron is working with Anthropic to co-develop the HBM and memory products tailored to Anthropic's specific requirements.

At $812, the next major support level on the daily chart is where Micron broke down from the $868 double-bottom. That level is a prior consolidation range, which means a drop to that area is a roughly 35% decline from the $1,255 peak it set in 2026. The RSI of 41 is moving to but is not yet below the 30 levels typically associated with oversold markets, meaning there still could be downside. A daily close and volume-based confirmation of a break to the downside at that level could lead to a test of $776. A reclaim of the 50-day moving average at $900 would be the first sign that the trend may be flattening.

Micron stock has fallen 20% in a month, from an all-time high, despite no earnings miss, no downward guidance revision, and no customer cancellations. Micron's stock decline was prompted by reports of China-based CXMT's $8.5 billion DRAM IPO and new export controls on the HBM products that affect a longer-term supply-demand balance. Micron also inked a strategic partnership agreement with Anthropic as well as supply deals with Qualcomm, DENSO, Hyundai Mobis, GM, and Ford earlier this week to diversify its customer base beyond AI data centers. Immediate support is $812, and that is followed by $776. To begin a trend reversal, Micron needs to recover above $900, and analysts have a $1,486 price target, or 64% upside. MarketWatch has identified MU as the most important stock in the US.