Trump Claims U.S.-Iran Deal Mostly Reached? Actual Differences May Still Be Large.

Trump's post sent a clear signal: He has engaged in intensive discussions with leaders from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain, and is in the "final stages" of hammering out the ultimate terms.

The White House also seeks to effectively curb global inflation driven by rising oil prices and soothe volatile financial markets through expectations of opening the Strait of Hormuz.

However, the degree of exaggeration in these optimistic expectations cannot be ignored. In a conversation with Axios, Trump further noted that there is no definitive conclusion yet on whether a good deal can be reached or if things will fall apart completely.

The so-called "essentially finalized" status appears to be unilateral, optimistic rhetoric from Trump under the dual pressures of trade and geopolitical maneuvering, rather than a definitive conclusion where the dust has settled.

Following Trump's post, Iran issued a tit-for-tat response. Iran's Fars News Agency reported that Trump's remarks regarding the imminent full reopening of the strait were "incomplete," and the text of the agreement is far from being fully finalized.

The Iranian side emphasized that the management of the strait, route planning, transit times, and permitting rights will remain under Iran's full control; while vessel volume may return to pre-war levels, this does not mean the strait is returning to a state of "free passage."

On the nuclear issue, the positions of both sides are even more polarized. The U.S. has demanded the transfer of highly enriched uranium out of Iran as a core condition for ending the war, but Iran's Supreme Leader has issued clear instructions that enriched uranium stockpiles must not be shipped abroad. Senior Iranian officials believe that transporting nuclear materials abroad would cause Iran to lose key leverage in future conflicts, making it more vulnerable to attack.

Although gaps in negotiations have narrowed, both sides remain firm on core issues such as the disposition of highly enriched uranium and navigation rights in the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in a deadlock over red lines.

[Market wagers on the probability of the U.S.-Iran conflict ending in May remain low; Source: Polymarket]

Polymarket prediction data shows that the probability of the U.S. and Iran reaching a permanent peace agreement before June is only 12%, about 30% before July, and approximately 40% before August. The negotiation window continues to extend; although the probability of reaching an agreement is slowly rising over time, a fundamental gap exists between a fragile truce and a true grand reconciliation.

For energy and commodity markets, a fragmented agreement framework means it is difficult for the geopolitical premium to be fully priced out at once; instead, markets are more likely to enter an uncertainty range of periodic repricing.

This content was translated using AI and reviewed for clarity. It is for informational purposes only.