Gold price under the spell of US elections, Fed meeting in their shadow – Commerzbank

The gold price has retreated somewhat from its record level of the previous week and is trading at around $2,740 per troy ounce, Commerbank’s commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

The focus is on US presidential election

“The polls predict a neck-and-neck race between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump. Trump's lead in the betting markets has narrowed considerably of late. This would also reduce the tailwind for gold, as inflation is likely to be higher under Trump than under Harris.”

“Moreover, there would be a risk with Trump that the independence of the US Federal Reserve would be called into question, making it more difficult for the Fed to respond to higher inflation with an appropriate monetary policy. Therefore, a Trump victory would likely result in a rising gold price. By contrast, a Harris victory would put gold under pressure. Should the election result be uncertain for days or even weeks, gold would benefit from the resulting uncertainty.”

“The Fed meeting on Wednesday and Thursday is clearly overshadowed by the US elections and is therefore unlikely to have any significant impact on the gold price. A 25 basis point interest rate cut is fully priced in. In addition, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is likely to hold out the prospect of further rate cuts at the subsequent press conference. No major surprises are expected from the meeting.”