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GBP/USD Price Forecast: Picks up above 1.3500 amid generalised US Dollar weakness
The British Pound (GBP) pares losses against a weaker US Dollar (USD) on Friday, as a run of soft US inflation figures and growing signs of labour market deterioration have cast doubt about the odds for an immediate Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike.
Fri, Aug 14
British Pound: Growth resilience supports gains against US Dollar – MUFG
MUFG’s Lee Hardman reports the British Pound (GBP) is the best performing major currency in August, with GBP/USD back above 1.3500. The United Kingdom (UK) economy is proving resilient to the energy price shock linked to the US-Iran conflict, with Q2 GDP up 0.4% after 0.6% in Q1.
Fri, Aug 14
US Dollar: Carry trades supported as Fed seen on hold – OCBC
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that softer United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) and lower US Treasury yields have led markets to scale back expectations of a September Federal Reserve (Fed) hike, limiting US Dollar (USD) upside.
Fri, Aug 14
Euro flattens against Japanese Yen, ECB-BoJ to raise rates in September
The Euro (EUR) trades flat at around 183.85 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) during the European trading session on Friday. The cross consolidates while investors seek fresh cues regarding whether there will be more United States (US)-Japan joint intervention to prop up the Japanese currency.
Fri, Aug 14
Japanese Yen: Shifting rate expectations and currency support – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes that Japanese government support for an imminent Bank of Japan rate hike has reinforced market expectations rather than surprised them. Probabilities now favor a hike as early as September, with October fully priced and another move in December possible.
Fri, Aug 14
Indian Rupee: RBI support offsets wider trade gap – Societe Generale
Societe Generale notes India’s headline CPI rose slightly to 4.45% year-on-year in July, backing the RBI’s decision to keep policy unchanged. The central bank has reportedly been active in FX markets as the trade deficit widened.
Fri, Aug 14
Australian Dollar: Upside risk intact above support against US Dollar – UOB
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note AUD/USD is consolidating intraday between 0.7050 and 0.7075 after a brief spike to 0.7091 failed to build momentum.
Fri, Aug 14
Brent: Geopolitical premium eases after six-day rally – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank analysts highlight that Brent Oil has finally broken a six-day winning streak, with prices pulling back modestly as some geopolitical risk premium is removed.
Fri, Aug 14
Japanese Yen recovers from two-week low on fast BoJ rate hike bets, softer USD
The USD/JPY pair sticks to modest intraday losses through the first half of the European session on Friday, though it manages to hold above the 159.00 mark and remains close to a two-week top set the previous day.
Fri, Aug 14
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Hawkish ECB prospects support Euro
The Euro (EUR) trades 0.17% higher at around 1.1550 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The major currency pair gains as the Euro rises due to firm expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates in the policy meeting in September.
Fri, Aug 14
US Dollar: Softer tone with falling yields – MUFG
MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes the US Dollar (USD) is trading on a softer footing as Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike expectations are scaled back following weaker labour data and a mixed United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) report.
Fri, Aug 14
Australian Dollar bounces up, US Dollar droops ahead of US Retail Sales data
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is trading a tad firmer against the Dollar (USD) on Friday, fuelled by hawkish remarks by Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Assistant Governor, Chris Kent.
Fri, Aug 14
Japanese Yen: BoJ tightening debate supports JPY – Rabobank
Rabobank strategist Elwin de Groot highlights that Japanese policymakers are increasingly focused on achieving the inflation target sustainably and supporting the Japanese Yen. Following recent FX intervention, He argues that exchange-rate management ultimately needs monetary policy backing.
Fri, Aug 14
Norwegian Krone: Weaker after Norges Bank holds rates – Danske Bank
Danske Research Team notes that Norges Bank left its policy rate at 4.25% and kept a tightening bias despite weaker summer inflation. They still expect one final hike in September, though the odds have fallen and the decision is now finely balanced.
Fri, Aug 14
Canadian Dollar hits fresh high since June on rising oil prices, Fed-inspired USD weakness
The USD/CAD pair extends the previous day's decline from the top end of the weekly range and attracts follow-through selling for the second straight day.
Fri, Aug 14
Dow Jones futures steady ahead of US Retail Sales data
Dow Jones futures remain subdued around 53,910 during European hours on Friday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures move little, hovering around 7,820, and Nasdaq 100 futures inch lower by 0.09%, trading near 30,160.
Fri, Aug 14
British Pound: Locked in tight ranges against US Dollar – UOB
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report GBP/USD price action remains confined, with intraday moves seen between 1.3475 and 1.3515 as momentum has faded.
Fri, Aug 14
Euro: Showing some undervaluation against US Dollar – ING
ING FX Strategist Francesco Pesole highlights that EUR/USD appears modestly undervalued, with short-term fair value estimated around 1.160–1.1650 based on swap spreads.
Fri, Aug 14
Equities: US stock rally broadens as S&P 500 hits new high – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank strategists report that United States (US) equities, led by the S&P 500, have reached new record highs as softer inflation data and lower Oil prices reinforce expectations that the Fed can stay on hold.
Fri, Aug 14
Canadian Dollar gathers strength on easing Fed rate hike bets
The USD/CAD pair attracts some sellers to around 1.3910 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) as cooled US inflation data have tempered aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike bets.
Fri, Aug 14
