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信诺集团 (CI) 2026年第三季度业绩电话会:每股收益预期上调至30.60美元

2026年11月5日 20:06
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信诺集团2026年第三季度调整后营收为738亿美元,每股收益7.98美元,全年每股收益预期上调至至少30.60亿美元。Evernorth特药与照护服务业务利润同比增长15%,信诺医疗营收达117亿美元,同比增长9%。2027年,管理层预计调整后每股收益将实现至少10%的增长,并计划到2030年实现调整后每股收益至少45美元。

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核心要点

  • 信诺集团公布2026年第三季度调整后营收为738亿美元,调整后税后利润为21亿美元,调整后每股收益为7.98美元。
  • 管理层将2026年全年调整后每股收益预期上调至至少30.60美元。信诺医疗的税前调整后利润预期上调至至少46亿美元,而Evernorth的预期维持在至少69亿美元。
  • Evernorth特药与照护服务业务实现税前调整后利润同比增长15%。药房福利服务业务实现税前调整后利润7.65亿美元。
  • 信诺医疗营收同比增长9%至117亿美元,税前调整后利润增长15%。医疗赔付率为85%,医疗成本虽处高位但符合定价假设。
  • 对于2027年,在计入退出ACA医保交易市场的影响后,管理层预计以约30美元的折年率基数为基准,调整后每股收益将实现至少10%的增长。
  • 公司维持其长期增长框架,即调整后每股收益年均增长10%至14%,到2030年调整后每股收益至少达到45美元。

核心财务数据

指标2026年第三季度业绩变动或说明
调整后营收738亿美元全公司合计
调整后税后利润21亿美元全公司合计
调整后每股收益7.98美元不包括已披露的特殊项目
税后特殊项目费用1.46亿美元每股0.55美元
Evernorth税前调整后利润18亿美元特药业务增长被药房福利服务业务的过渡期因素所抵消
药房福利服务税前调整后利润7.65亿美元符合管理层预期
特药与照护服务税前调整后利润增长同比增长15%得益于特药药房、分销业务及低成本替代药物的推动
信诺医疗调整后营收117亿美元同比增长9%
信诺医疗税前调整后利润12亿美元同比增长15%
医疗赔付率85%医疗成本趋势依然高企但保持稳定
医疗客户数1850万年内迄今增长2%
经营活动现金流26亿美元2026年第三季度
债务资本比率41.8%季度内下降约100个基点
股票回购约2.5亿美元约90万股

业务与运营表现

Evernorth健康服务

Evernorth营收同比增长6%。特药与照护服务仍是主要增长驱动力,税前调整后利润增长15%。

仿制药来那度胺(Revlimid)渗透率达到约90%。Accredo获得了330多种限制性分销及独家产品的分销权,而CuraScript SD拥有40种独家分销药物的渠道。第五座洁净室处于建设阶段,旨在扩大复杂药品的产能。

管理层表示,Evernorth批发平台已开始向分销中心履约订单。公司预计特药分销营收将从目前的250亿美元增长至2030年的450亿美元,但预计2027年不会产生过大贡献。

药房福利服务业务仍处于过渡期。管理层指出,合同续约与延期、对Signature模式的投资、返利池承压,以及雇主降低对用于体重管理的GLP-1药物的承保,是主要影响因素。

2027年销售季表现强劲,客户留存率处于90%高位区间。公司正朝着在2027年以目标利润水平新增至少200万药房福利服务客户的目标推进。

Signature药房福利模式

Signature的设计阶段已经完成,而签约、技术及落地实施工作仍在进行中。管理层表示,目前正与主要制药厂商和网络药房进行谈判。

信诺医疗的全额投保业务计划于2027年1月1日采用Signature模式。Evernorth更广泛的推广预计将在2028年提速。

作为该模式的一个组成部分,Price Assure目前已被约10%的客户采用。管理层表示,该项目旨在将高价品牌药的平均自付费用降低30%。

信诺医疗

信诺医疗受益于严谨的定价、有利的净投资收益以及运营效率的提升。服务于员工人数少于500人的美国雇主的Select业务板块,其医疗客户数年内迄今增长了5%。

管理层表示,止损险业务表现符合定价和利润率修复计划。高额索赔人出险频率趋势保持稳定,支撑了对2027年利润率进一步改善的信心。

9月份推出的HealthSense最初专注于肿瘤领域。它整合了健康需求、福利、药房保障、理赔、成本及既往互动记录,以支持更早的临床干预。

管理层指引

指引指标管理层指引
2026年调整后每股收益至少30.60美元
2026年Evernorth税前调整后利润至少69亿美元
2026年信诺医疗税前调整后利润至少46亿美元
2026年医疗赔付率中值为84.2%,上下浮动25个基点
年底债务资本比率目标约40%
2027年调整后每股收益增长以约30美元的折年率基数为基准,增长至少10%
2027年信诺医疗调整后利润增长按2026年报告业绩计算处于6%至9%的长期区间内;在针对ACA退出进行调整后,将高于该区间
2027年特药与照护服务利润增长处于8%至12%的区间内,偏向低端
2027年Evernorth利润增长低个位数
2030年调整后每股收益至少45美元
长期调整后每股收益增长年均10%至14%
Accelerate to One计划总折年节省金额到2030年达到30亿美元

管理层估计,退出ACA医保交易市场将在2027年带来约2亿美元的负面影响,包括该业务目前的利润贡献、业务收尾费用及滞留间接成本。这使得可比的2026年调整后每股收益折年基数降至约30美元。

Accelerate to One计划预计到2030年将实现30亿美元的总折年节省金额。其中约70%至80%预计将来自自动化、流程现代化和人才效能提升,其余则来自外包商及供应商的改善。部分节省的资金将重新投资于业务增长和创新。

风险与关注重点

  • 药房福利服务业务面临全行业返利总额池压缩以及雇主降低对用于体重管理的GLP-1药物承保的挑战。管理层预计该板块2027年利润将出现个位数百分比的下滑。
  • 与近年来相比,2027年产品管线中重磅生物类似药和特药仿制药的上市数量较少。管理层称这属于暂时现象,并指出本年代后期将有更多纳入医疗福利保障的生物类似药推出。
  • 退出ACA医保交易市场预计将在2027年带来约2亿美元的负面影响,包括业务收尾与滞留成本。
  • 医疗成本趋势依然高企,不过管理层表示其保持稳定且符合定价假设。
  • 不断变化的PBM披露要求将增加行政成本。管理层预计增量支出不会产生重大影响。
  • 340B计划的调整预计将带来轻微下行压力,但管理层表示,其影响尚不足以改变特药与照护服务的增长框架。

分析师问答亮点

  • Signature采纳情况:管理层重申,全额投保业务的落地实施仍按计划于2027年1月1日推进。Evernorth更广泛的推广预计将在2028年提速,目前与药企及药房的网络签约正在进行中。
  • 2027年Evernorth展望:特药与照护服务业务增长预计接近其8%至12%区间的低端。药房福利服务业务利润预计将出现个位数百分比下滑,进而使Evernorth整体实现低个位数增长。
  • 特药管线:生物类似药和特药仿制药上市数量减少将制约2027年的增长,但管理层预计肿瘤、多发性硬化症及其他纳入医疗福利保障的生物类似药将支撑未来几年的业务机遇。
  • ACA退出成本:管理层打算在医保交易市场业务退出后消除剩余的业务收尾成本和滞留间接费用,但未量化潜在成本收回的时间或具体金额。
  • 止损险利润率:定价举措及分析能力的提升正在支撑利润率恢复。管理层预计剩余的计划内利润修复将持续贯穿2027年。
  • 特药扩张:分销业务及纳入医疗福利保障的特药代表着长期增长机遇,但管理层预计这两者在2027年均不会带来超额收益。

业绩电话会完整纪要


完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by for Cigna Group's Third Quarter 2026 Results Review. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, this conference, including the Q&A session, is being recorded.

We'll begin by turning the conference over to Ralph Giacobbe. Please go ahead.

Ralph Giacobbe

Great. Thanks. Good morning. Thank you for joining today's call. I'm Ralph Giacobbe, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. With me on the line this morning are Brian Evanko, The Cigna Group's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Ann Dennison, Chief Financial Officer.

In our remarks today, Brian and Ann will cover a number of topics, including our third quarter 2026 financial results and our financial outlook for 2026. Following their prepared remarks, Brian and Ann will be available for Q&A. As noted in our earnings release, when describing our financial results, we use certain financial measures, including adjusted income from operations and adjusted revenues which are not determined in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States, otherwise known as GAAP.

A reconciliation of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, shareholders net income and total revenues, respectively, is contained in today's earnings release, which is posted in the Investor Relations section of thecignagroup.com. We use the term labeled adjusted income from operations and adjusted earnings per share on the same basis as our principal measures of financial performance.

In our remarks today, we will be making some forward-looking statements, including statements regarding our outlook for 2026 and future performance. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. A description of these risks and uncertainties is contained in the cautionary note to today's earnings release and in our most recent reports filed with the SEC.

Regarding our results in the third quarter, we recorded after-tax special item charges of $146 million or $0.55 per share Details of the special items are included in our quarterly financial supplement. Additionally, please note that when we make prospective comments regarding financial performance, including our full year 2026 outlook, we will do so on a basis that includes the potential impact of future share repurchases and anticipated 2026 dividends.

With that, I'll call -- turn the call over to Brian.

Brian Evanko

Thanks, Ralph. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. I'm pleased to share that The Cigna Group delivered strong performance in the third quarter as we continue executing on our strategy.

Today, I'll cover our results for the quarter and key drivers. Our profitable growth strategy and how we're advancing toward our long-term EPS growth algorithm of 10% to 14%, which we laid out at our recent Investor Day. As well as how our strategic growth framework positions us to build momentum in 2020. Then Ann will share additional details about our financial results and outlook for the rest of the year. And we'll take your questions.

During the quarter, we delivered adjusted revenue of $73.8 million. adjusted after-tax earnings of $2.1 million and adjusted earnings per share of $7.98. The work we've done over several years to deliberately shape our portfolio is delivering results and we are built for the fastest-growing areas of health care with a proven ability to execute through a dynamic environment.

Our strong performance through the first 9 months of the year gives us confidence to raise our full year outlook. And we now expect adjusted earnings per share of at least $30.60. And importantly, we are building on that strong foundation as we look beyond 2026. At our recent Investor Day, we announced our Lead to One Vision, which is centered on delivering personalization at scale to improve affordability and the health care experience for every customer and patient we serve.

Lead to One brings together all of our medical, pharmacy, behavioral health and specialty care capabilities around the individual. By responsibly leveraging our data, clinical expertise and technology, we can identify needs earlier, deliver more personalized support and improve health outcomes while lowering the total cost of care.

Our Lead to One Vision will benefit all customers. And we see a particular opportunity with the most clinically complex patient needs where health care costs are increasingly concentrated and represent over 50% of total health care spending.

Lead to One is underpinned by a clear strategic growth framework comprised of 3 pillars: First, we will deliver core growth. Second, we will leverage distinct capabilities; and third, we will execute with discipline. These 3 pillars taken together give us a clear path to build on the strength of our business today while creating the next chapter of sustainable growth and greater value for those we serve.

Now let me walk through some of our highlights in the quarter across Evernorth Health Services and Cigna Healthcare. Starting with Evernorth, third quarter earnings were in line with expectations. Our Specialty and care services businesses delivered attractive performance, including pretax adjusted earnings growth of 15% year-over-year. This was fueled by secular tailwinds and disciplined execution across our specialty pharmacy and distribution capabilities.

We also drove continued strong biosimilar and specialty generic utilization. Today, Revlimid, a widely used oncology drug is seeing specialty generic adoption rates around 90%. Across our specialty businesses, we are leveraging our distinct capabilities for patients with complex needs, who require a higher level of care, support and coordination to manage their conditions.

For example, in our specialty pharmacy, Accredo, we have industry-leading access with more than 330 highly complex limited distribution and exclusive products. This demonstrates the strength of our manufacturer relationships and the trust they place in us to partner in serving some of the most clinically complex patient needs. That access also positions us to capture growth as new specialty therapies come to market.

I'm also pleased to share that we continue to expand our capacity for these limited distribution products with our network of clean rooms the fifth of which is now in the build phase. These highly sterile environments take years to build, license and operational is to safely mix and compound some of the most complex medicines. These clean rooms are just one example of the durable competitive advantage in our specialty business that we've constructed over the past few decades.

Finally, our expanded distribution channels are unlocking new opportunities. CuraScript SD is a leader in specialty distribution with access to 40 exclusive distribution drugs. And our recently launched Evernorth wholesale has begun fulfilling orders to our distribution centers to be able to serve customers.

In our pharmacy benefit services business in Evernorth, we delivered third quarter pretax adjusted earnings of $765 million. We continue to see strong momentum for the 2027 sales season supporting our core growth, along with strong retention rates in the high 90s.

Next, I'd like to spend a moment on our signature model transition. We are pioneering this new approach to pharmacy benefits and want you to have further context around current status and why we're so confident in our path. You can think of our signature implementation in 3 broad phases. Phase 1, our design phase is complete.

Announced this time last year, Phase 1 included designing Signature, our market-defining innovation driven by core principles of affordability, simplicity, transparency and value. Inherent in the model is our price Assure capability, which is designed to ensure patients pay the lowest available out-of-pocket costs when they fill prescriptions and will save an average of 30% on high-cost branded drugs.

Price issues already in market and being leveraged by about 10% of our current clients. And the Signature model is consistent with the direction of regulatory changes, including the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2026 and the Department of Labor's recently finalized PBM fee disclosure rule. Phase 2, our build phase is well underway. Currently, we're working on adoption planning alongside market education. Key stakeholders include brokers, pharmaceutical manufacturers, network pharmacy partners and clients.

The work is largely complete for brokers, and we're actively advancing contracts with pharmaceutical manufacturers and network pharmacies. Phase 3, our adoption phase is on track. The next milestone is the adoption of signature for our Cigna Healthcare fully insured book on 1127. Early client conversations for the 2028 benefits year have been encouraging, and indicate strong interest in the model for our broader Evernorth book of Pharmacy Benefit Services clients.

In our very strong 2027 selling season reinforces that clients value innovation and see us as a multiyear partner on their pharmacy benefits journey. By any value and signatures focus on patient affordability and transparency and in how it supports their efforts to meet evolving regulatory requirements and their fiduciary responsibilities. They also see a model that can encourage adherence with improved health outcomes and workforce productivity.

In summary, we're proud of the progress we're making on Signature. We've completed Phase 1 and are on track to deliver against Phases 2 and 3 and with broader client adoption expected to ramp in 2028. We'll share some further detail on the progress across Phases 2 and 3 during our fourth quarter earnings call.

Finally, we continue to leverage our distinct capabilities in pharmacy benefit services to generate industry-leading affordability outcomes, including our deep supply chain expertise, clinical safety checks, in connectivity in the rapidly evolving pharmaceutical market to meet the needs of clients and customers. And we are continuing to enhance our technology platforms, better connecting the different components of the pharmacy benefit to create a simpler, more flexible experience for patients and clients.

Turning to Cigna Healthcare. We delivered another quarter of strong growth with results ahead of expectations with pretax adjusted earnings growth of 15% year-over-year. Our disciplined pricing, coupled with advanced analytics and insights enable our steady medical care ratio performance. While medical cost trends continue to be elevated, they are consistent with our expectations and pricing assumptions.

This quarter, we also benefited from stronger net investment income and favorable SG&A performance. We also introduced new capabilities in Cigna Health care in September with launch of Health Sense our data and technology-powered customer enhagement solution that will start with oncology, but broaden to other conditions over time. by connecting a customer's health needs, benefits, pharmacy coverage, costs, claims and prior interactions, our clinical teams have context and a more complete picture enabling earlier interventions.

As a reminder, costs are increasingly concentrated in complex conditions with 8% of patients generating 55% of total health care spend. We're excited about the early positive reception to HealthSense from clients and customers and are taking an agile approach to launching additional components as they are built.

As we look to 2027, we remain confident in the strength of our strategic growth framework and our ability to perform through a dynamic environment. During our fourth quarter call, we will provide our comprehensive 2027 guidance. We continue to expect adjusted earnings per share growth of at least 10% in 2027 off our run rate earnings for our ongoing businesses and remain confident in 2030 adjusted earnings per share of at least $45 that we outlined at our Investor Day.

Today, I'll briefly cover the primary tailwinds and headwinds for 2027. Starting with the tailwinds. First, in our Cigna Healthcare business, we are driving continued improvement in our stop loss margins. Second, we're pleased with a strong 2027 selling season in both Evernorth and Cigna Healthcare. High client retention and new business wins reinforce the strength of our value proposition and innovation and will contribute to attractive enterprise revenue growth in 2027.

And third, our [ Accelerate to One ] modernization and productivity initiative will drive savings across the enterprise. Turning to the headwinds we expect in 2027. First, within Evernorth Pharmacy Benefit Services, the compression of industry rebate pools and lower employer coverage of GLP-1s for weight loss, consistent with our commentary from Investor Day.

Second, within Evernorth Specialty care services, a more limited pipeline of biosimilar and specialty generic launches in the coming year. And finally, as you'd expect, the known exit from the ACA exchange business will remove that contribution from Cigna Healthcare. To ensure our success, we're focused on disciplined execution across the enterprise. Part of our DNA is our proven ability to evolve. Throughout our 234-year history, we've continuously adapted to lead through change and innovated to drive what comes next.

Across our businesses, we're coupling data and insights with our clinical and analytical expertise, resulting in disciplined pricing, timely patient support and consultative solutions for clients. And we're building a future-ready efficient and effective workforce while optimizing accountability and decision-making with our Accelerate to One initiative, all while driving run rate savings of $3 billion by 2030. And which you'll hear more about from Ann in a few moments.

Now let me close with a few key takeaways. First, we are generating core growth in each of our 3 business platforms. We've deliberately shaped our portfolio with capabilities that are focused on the most attractive subsectors of health care where needs and spending are concentrated with multiple growth engines across specialty and care services and pharmacy benefit services in Evernorth, along with Cigna Healthcare.

Second, we are leveraging our distinct capabilities that strengthen our position for the future. Our expertise in complex care, combined with our clinical capabilities, data, advanced analytics and AI enables us to deliver greater personalization at scale, improve affordability and create more value for the people we serve. You see that strategy coming to life through capabilities like Health Sense our expanding specialty infrastructure and continued innovation across our pharmacy businesses.

Third, disciplined execution continues to differentiate our company. This quarter, that showed up in strong client demand, disciplined pricing, stable medical cost trends, continued specialty growth and our ability to adapt our solutions as the market evolves.

And as we look to 2027, we have clear visibility into the puts and takes ahead and have multiple levers across the enterprise to deliver against our commitments. Importantly, we are not dependent on any 1 single business, market trend or innovation to deliver our long-term expectations. Our third quarter performance reinforces our confidence in our Lead to One Vision and in our long-term strategy, leading to durable profitable growth and compelling long-term shareholder value creation.

With that, I'll turn it over to Ann.

Ann Dennison

Thanks, Brian, and good morning, everyone. As Brian mentioned, our third quarter results reflect the strength of our enterprise and the consistency of our execution.

For our Lead to One Vision, we are delivering core growth across a deliberately shaped portfolio of businesses, leveraging our distinct capabilities to deliver greater personalization at scale, particularly for patients with complex conditions, and executing with discipline. That combination of focused strategy and execution continues to translate into strong results.

During the quarter, we delivered adjusted revenues of $73.8 billion adjusted after-tax earnings of $2.1 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $7.98. With our strong third quarter performance, we are raising our full year 2026 adjusted earnings per share outlook to at least $30.60.

Now turning to our segment results. I'll start with Evernorth, where we continue to execute on the strategy, Matt Perlberg; and Adam Kautzner outlined at Investor Day to strengthen our specialty leadership while evolving pharmacy benefit services to deliver greater affordability and transparency. Third quarter 2026 revenues grew 6% year-over-year to $63.8 million and pretax adjusted earnings were $1.8 billion.

Specialty and Care Services delivered strong performance with pretax adjusted earnings growing 15% year-over-year to $1.1 million in line with expectations. This growth reflects our distinct specialty capabilities across Accredo and CuraScript, and our clinical expertise and patient support services which together are driving momentum in our fastest-growing business.

Consistent with our Lead to One strategy, we continue to make specialty care more affordable by accelerating access to lower-cost alternatives which benefits patients and clients while driving growth for the business. We continue to drive strong adoption of biosimilars, led by our 0 patient out-of-pocket offerings for both HUMIRA, both biosimilar HUMIRA and STELARA.

Adoption of new specialty generics continue to ramp during the quarter, including generic Revlimid, where penetration is now approximately 90%. And finally, income from our investment in Child Health Solutions contributed to the growth in the quarter. Within Pharmacy Benefit Services, pretax adjusted earnings were $765 million in line with expectations.

As we outlined at Investor Day, this business is in a period of transition, and our performance continues to reflect the previously discussed renewals and extensions of large client contracts as well as investments to support the transition to our new signature model.

Overall, Evernoth's third quarter results reflect continued growth in our Specialty and Care Services business powered by our distinct capabilities across both pharmacy and medical benefits and disciplined execution as we evolve our pharmacy benefit services business towards Signature, delivering greater affordability and transparency for patients and clients.

Turning to Cigna Healthcare, where we continue to execute on the strategy Bryan Holgerson outlined at Investor Day. Deepening client relationships and expanding share in the employer market through our integrated medical, pharmacy and behavioral model with a particular focus on customers with complex care needs. We see significant opportunity to improve outcomes and affordability for these customers through more personalized care.

Third quarter 2020 adjusted revenues grew 9% year-over-year to $11.7 billion and pretax adjusted earnings were $1.2 billion. Cigna Healthcare adjusted earnings were ahead of expectations primarily driven by favorable net investment income and ongoing operating efficiencies. The medical care ratio for the third quarter was 85% and in line with expectations, this trend remained elevated but stable, and costs remain consistent with our pricing assumptions.

Total medical customers have grown 2% year-to-date to 18.5 million customers. We continue to see strong growth in our Select segment, which serves U.S. employers with fewer than 500 employees, with medical customers up 5% year-to-date, reflecting market share gains that we highlighted at Investor Day. Overall, Cigna Healthcare continues to deliver strong growth driven by our distinct capabilities along with disciplined pricing and expense management.

Now turning to our updated outlook for 2026. The strength of our third quarter performance gives us the confidence to increase our full year adjusted earnings per share outlook to at least $30.60. Within Evernorth, we continue to expect full year pretax adjusted earnings of at least $6.9 billion.

Within Cigna Healthcare, we are raising our full year pretax adjusted earnings outlook to at least $4.6 billion and with greater visibility into full year performance, we are updating our full year MCR outlook, maintaining our prior midpoint of 84.2% and tightening our range to plus or minus 25 basis points.

Turning to our 2026 capital management position. Third quarter operating cash flow was $2.6 billion, and we continue to expect strong cash flow from operations in the fourth quarter, consistent with the pattern we observed in the prior 2 years.

During the quarter, we reduced our debt to capitalization ratio by approximately 100 basis points to 41.8% as of September 30. The and we remain on track to achieve our long-term target of approximately 40% by year-end. Additionally, in the third quarter, we repurchased approximately 900,000 shares of common stock for approximately $250 million.

Now turning to some early thoughts on 2027. I'll provide some additional directional comments building on the headwinds and tailwinds Brian discussed. First, our 2026 run rate earnings. As you think about the appropriate starting point, it's important to consider our previously announced exit from the ACA exchange market. For 2026, we continue to expect our ACA Exchange business to generate positive margins though below our 4% to 6% margin target.

And we expect some runoff and stranded overhead costs to remain next year. Based on our current estimates, this represents an approximately $200 million headwind in Cigna Healthcare, resulting in the 2026 run rate adjusted EPS of approximately $30.

Regarding our outlook for our business segments. In Cigna Healthcare, we expect another year of strong growth with adjusted income from operations growing within our long-term target of 6% to 9% of our reported 2026 results. or above the high end of our long-term target after adjusting for our exit from the ACA exchange market.

This reflects strong core growth, continued momentum in select where our distinct capabilities position us to gain market share and disciplined execution in our pricing to improve margin and stop loss. In our Specialty and Care Services business, despite more limited biosimilar and specialty generic launches in 2027 and we still expect adjusted earnings to grow within the 8% to 12% long-term target range, though towards the low end.

In Pharmacy Benefit Services, as Brian mentioned and as we discussed at our Investor Day, we anticipate near-term headwinds, including industry-wide compression and gross rebates and lower employer coverage of GLP-1 for weight loss, consistent with our prior comments. Taken together, we expect Evernorth earnings to be up low single digits in 2027.

Regarding our capital management in 2027, consistent with the deployment framework we outlined at Investor Day, we continue to view share repurchase as an attractive use of capital. As I mentioned earlier, we expect to achieve our debt-to-capital target of approximately 40% by year-end 2020 and we expect greater flexibility in capital deployment next year.

In summary, we remain confident in delivering at least 10% adjusted earnings per share growth in 2027, off of our 2026 run rate of approximately $30, which reflects our exit from the ACA Exchange business. We believe this is a prudent starting point, and we look forward to providing further guidance on our fourth quarter call.

Underpinning our confidence in our ability to deliver in 2027 and through 2030 is Accelerate to One. This modernization and productivity initiative, which we announced at our recent Investor Day, will lower our cost to serve and create operating leverage for the enterprise. We expect this initiative to contribute $3 billion in gross savings by 2030.

Notably, we expect to reinvest some of these savings back into the business to fund growth and innovation, while a portion will benefit operating results. This initiative further reinforces our confidence in our ability to deliver attractive earnings growth in 2027 and over the long term. and we look forward to providing periodic updates on our progress.

Now to recap. Our third quarter results reflect strong core growth, our distinct capabilities in both Evernorth and Cigna Healthcare and disciplined execution across the enterprise. We are pleased with our year-to-date performance and confident in our increased full year 2026 adjusted earnings per share outlook of at least $30.60. And we remain confident in our long-term framework of 10% to 14% average annual adjusted earnings per share growth and at least $45 of adjusted earnings per share in 2030, which we discussed at Investor Day.

With that, we'll turn it over to the operator for the Q&A portion of the call.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Lisa Gill with JPMorgan.

分析师问答

Lisa Gill

I really just want to dig into a few things when we think about the progression in the PDF side of the business. I heard you talk about kind of the next stage where you're building adoption, educating the market, signing manufacturing and pharmacy agreements, can you help us to understand when, what that looks like to what the progression looks like in '27.

And you talked about low single digits overall for Evernorth. So it doesn't feel like there's a big progression versus what we're seeing here in '26 and the segment specifically. So if you could just help us to bridge that and talk a little bit about how you make progress in the contracting.

Brian Evanko

Lisa, I'll start and Ann, if there's anything you want to add, feel free to jump in here. So I think a few components to your question, they're starting with Signature. And then I believe your reference to the low single digit was the Evernorth aggregate income growth expectation that we outlined there. But just relative to where we are with Signature, first off, we're proud to lead the industry with our new signature pharmacy benefits offering.

If you step back, affordability continues to be the #1 launch facing patients with the affordability of prescription drugs being a primary pain point, and that's particularly acute for high-cost branded prescriptions, which represent just 10% of all prescriptions in America, but 90% of the total drug spending.

And when you look back 1 of the great success stories in American Healthcare is the way PBMs have led generic adoption to now reach some 90% of all prescriptions at a very affordable price point. So the next frontier is attacking the remaining 10% of prescriptions that are in very high-cost branded drugs and represent some 90% of drug spending.

So our signature model is designed to attack that 10% of high-cost brand drugs and provide a simple fee-based transparent solution for clients and customers. So as I talked about earlier, there are 3 phases of our signature model implementation. Maybe I'll just share a little bit more color on some of those components. Phase 1 was the design phase, which is now complete, which was the decision we made to move to a simple future fee-based no rebate model.

And this architecture leverages the same value creators for clients and customers, meaning procuring drugs at the most affordable unit costs, wrapping those with clinical programs that drive adherence and administering complex benefit plan designs. And Phase 2 is our build phase. And I think your question was pointing at this specifically in terms of where are we with manufacturer or network contracts. This is actively underway.

Our team is doing quite a bit of heavy lifting here relative to recontracting as we speak. We'll talk about more details on this on our fourth quarter call but we're actively negotiating with the largest pharmaceutical manufacturers as we speak to get the signature contracts fully landed. This phase also includes all the technology enhancements and the implementation readiness work that's required.

And finally, for the upcoming sales season, we've been working hard to educate brokers, the employer community, current clients and prospects on what the signature model entails. And then Phase III, as I alluded to earlier, is our adoption phase, and that's all on track.

The next milestone is our Cigna Health care fully insured book, which will adopt Signature 1127 and then the broader ramp will transpire throughout 2028. So big picture, strong receptivity from each of those different stakeholders. We continue to expect 28 will be the year where we see significant adoption across the broader Evernorth book of business.

The second part of your question, as Ann indicated in her comments, we expect Evernorth 27 income to be up low single digits. We expect our Specialty and Care business to be within our long-term growth algorithm of 8% to 12%, albeit at the lower end which implies our pharmacy benefit services income will be down single digits in '27 from where we are in '26 due to the industry-wide pressure on gross rebate pools as well as a downtick in the percentage of employers covering GLP-1s for weight management.

As we've talked about on prior calls, 26 and 27 are transitional years for our pharmacy benefit services business, and we continue to expect at least 4% up to 4% compounded income growth from 26% to 30% in the PBS business and continue to expect at least $45 per share of 2030 adjusted EPS. So a lot in there, hopefully, you got all the components to your question.

Operator

Our next question comes from Kevin Fischbeck with Bank of America.

Kevin Fischbeck

I guess just kind of 2 follow-up questions on the guidance. for 2027. I guess, first, the $0.60 drag. It sounds like some of it is just core earnings and some of it is kind of stranded costs. Can you quantify how much that $0.60 might be recaptured in '28 and beyond?

And then as far as the headwind to 2027 regarding the fewer launches on the specialty side. Is there any early look on '28? Is that a more normal year in your view? Or is that also a little bit lower?

Brian Evanko

Kevin, I'll have Ann take the first part of your question in terms of the individual exchange exit and the impact on '26 '27, how to think about '28 and then I'll take the second piece relative to the Specialty and Care. Ann?

Ann Dennison

So just on the ACA, just to level set, the results for the quarter -- this quarter were largely in line with expectations. And so I mentioned this in my prepared remarks, but as a reminder, we expect the business to be profitable this year, but with margins a little below our 4% to 6% target range.

So there's 2 things to think about as we look at the impact of the ACA exchange exit on our 2017 outlook. The first is what the business contributes today. And then the second is the strange overhead and other costs that come along with exiting a business, which is what you'd expect. So when you put those 2 together, based on our current projections, we expect an all-in headwind of about $200 million from exiting the exchange market.

As we -- specifically related to your question on recapture and '28, of course, as we always do, we'd be looking to get out any of the runoff costs and the stranded overhead that remains once we've exited the business.

Brian Evanko

Thanks, Ann. And on the second component of your question, Kevin, in terms of the headwind that we flagged relative to the Specialty and Care business, specifically 2027 is a bit of a slower year for new biosimilar and specialty generics.

If you got to step back and look over a longer period of time, new introduction of biosimilars and specialty generics has been a great success story for American Healthcare. And over the past 3 years, HUMIRA having biosimilar competition in '24, STELARA having biosimilar competition '25 generic Revlimid, having supply constraints ease in '26. Each of those provided tailwinds for '24, '25 and '26.

So when you look back at our Specialty and Care business, between 2023 and '26, we've compounded income growth of 13%, which is above our long-term growth algorithm for specialty and care. Now from year-to-year, there will be some head flow on the timing and magnitude of drugs that will see new biosimilar and specialty generic competition.

So for '27 specifically, again, the pipeline indicates less material new biosimilars specialty generics being introduced. But I would view that as a temporary as we look ahead to '28, '29 and '30, there are several biosimilars coming to market for drugs often covered under the medical benefit. So I think oncology drugs, as drugs, and we're preparing for these introductions.

Now stepping back from all of this, we're actively encouraging the approval and adoption of these low-cost alternatives. It's a great means to improve affordability. And finally, the continued momentum across our broader Specialty and Care portfolio allows us to overcome this headwind to specialty growth.

And as Ann noted, we do expect on 2027, Specialty and Care earnings growth near the low end of our long-term income growth [indiscernible] 8% to 12% per year, which speaks to the strength of our broad suite of specialty capabilities, as well as our expertise in serving patients with the most complex health care needs. Hopefully, that helps.

Operator

Our next question comes from A.J. Rice with UBS.

Albert Rice

Just to make sure I understand, so as you deploy the new signature model next year to your fully insured book -- you didn't mention that as a headwind tailwind for either side of the business. Is there any short-term pressure either on the churn side or on the Evernorth side that then abates over time as it gets more mature?

And just also on the signature model, you did reference various regulatory things, the PBM reform legislation from January, the Department of Labor announcement. Are you naturally going to comply with all of the provisions there as you move to the signature model?

Or is there anything incrementally -- from an investment perspective, you need to do to comply with those as they phase in by '28 and so forth.

Brian Evanko

A few different components in there. Relative to the first piece of your question, the signature implementation for our fully insured business for 1127 within Cigna Healthcare, as I mentioned earlier in Lisa's question, fully on track to implement that effective January 1.

To your point, that is not a headwind relative to '27. The reason for that is, since it's fully insured business, any change in economics is essentially in the it's in the price that we've implemented through our standard underwriting process as we go through case by case, client by client and put the appropriate price in place.

So the' 27 points we talked about specifically for PBS are limited to the GLP-1 weight has been coverage ticking down in our employer book and secondarily, the compression on industry-wide rebates. So again, '26, '27, think of those as transitional years for PBS '28, '29, '30, we'll see income growth over that time period.

On the second piece of your question relative to some of the PBM rules, regulations and reform changes that have gone through most recently, the Department of Labor PBM transparency rule was issued just a few weeks ago. And really this issue -- or this rule speaks to the primary challenge of our health care system, which again is affordability. And we support the underlying spirit implied by this rule. Specifically use of objective, data-driven, transparent information in order to drive more educated purchasing and utilization.

That said, we think it's very unlikely this rule will result in lower prescription drug spending. There's some redundancy in the DOL rule and the Consolidated Appropriations Act, and there's some areas where we were actually contradictory. Our team is actively engaging to drive clarity on these issues for the benefit of our clients and customers. As it relates to the DOL rule itself, we will, of course, comply with the requirements. This will add some administrative costs and burden to the system.

We should not think of that as a material amount of new spending something that I would view as normal course for our PBS business. But again, coming back to our signature model, that is [indiscernible] bold way that we're taking action ourselves to drive change in the system with a focus on affordability and a focus on actionable transparency. This model also provides that patient guarantee of the lowest possible out-of-pocket costs when they fill a prescription.

Finally, the signature model is designed to comply with evolving regulations including both the CAA and the DOL transparency rule while reducing fiduciary risk for employers who adopt model. So we're very excited about the signature model, looking forward to scaling across the Evernorth book starting in '28. Thanks for the question.

Operator

Our next question comes from Justin Lake with Wolfe Research.

Justin Lake

On the 3 headwins to Evernorth next year, are all 3 about similar size or maybe you can rank order them for us in terms of impact. And then you didn't mention investment gains in 2026 as a headwind for the Healthcare business next year. By my math, it looks like it could be north of $100 million. How should we think about that?

Brian Evanko

Justin, I'll start, and Ann, if you could pick up on the -- how to think about the quant 3 headwinds as well as the question Justin asked about the investment income. We're going to wait until the fourth quarter to get into our detailed guidance relative to subsegment and segment guidance for '27.

What we're trying to do today was give you a little bit of texture in terms of how to think about the $27 million versus $26 million income trajectory for each of our business. But as I said earlier to the question, that Kevin asked on specialty, we will still be within our 8% to 12% income growth algorithm, albeit at the lower end.

So that headwind in the big picture is more than offset by the underlying strong secular growth that we see in specialty by the continued expansion of our distribution capabilities by the improvement in our cost to fill through initiatives like our pharmacy forward.

So big picture, you should not think of that as a substantial headwind in a dollar incent standpoint. And then the PBS headwind that we made reference to contributes to the total income being down single digits 27% relative to 26%. So that gives you a bit of just ballpark dimensioning of how to think about the magnitude.

Ann, can you pick up anything else on the headwinds in the investment income component?

Ann Dennison

Sure. Just to Brian's point around pharmacy benefit services and the headwinds there, we look forward to quantifying the specific numbers coming out of the fourth quarter. You can think about both the 2 headwinds referenced as relatively equal. On the investment gains in Cigna Healthcare for this year, I would not characterize that as a headwind going into 2027.

Operator

Our next question comes from Scott Fidel with Goldman Sachs.

Scott Fidel

I wanted to just ask about the new initiative, the Lead to One that you discussed at the Investor Day, and I know it sounds like already, there's sort of execution on that that's going on within the company.

And Brian and Ann, maybe just in particular, if you can give us any visibility into a level of run rate savings that you expect to potentially be accrued into the '27 outlook that you're contemplating in and the potential sort of key drivers of that? And then also just any onetime costs that we may anticipate may hit the GAAP P&L just in the back half of this year or into next year as you implement workforce rationalization and other elements of the Lead to One strategy.

Brian Evanko

Scott, I'll start and then, Ann, if you could pick up. So Scott, referenced Lead to One. I think he was bridging over to our Accelerator initiative as well in his question. relative to the $3 billion of run rate savings that we expect to see by 2030. So step back, Lead to One is our vision for the future, which is essentially driving personalization at scale.

We see the emergence of beta, modern technologies, advanced analytics, AI, allowing us to drive personalization in ways that we couldn't even 3, 5 years ago. And we're excited to do that across all the customers and patients we serve with a particular emphasis on those who have the most clinically complex health care needs, which as I said in my earlier comments, that now represents 55% of total spending, even though it's just 8% of patients our Accelerate to One initiative, specifically is using a combination of technology, workforce effectiveness, vendor rationalization in order to drive that $3 billion of run rate save by 2030, $3 billion of gross run rate savings by 2030.

Ann, can you pick up a little bit in terms of how to think about the timing of the emergence investment spend to that part, Scott's question?

Ann Dennison

Sure. So as Brian mentioned, $3 billion of gross run rate savings we're focused on 3 areas: automation and process modernization, talent effectiveness and how we manage our supplier partners and vendors. All of this is enabled by technology and AI, continuous improvement and a lot of execution rigor.

So the goal to bold. We're going to fund reinvestment in the business. So not all of that's going to fall to the bottom line. but also we want to support our 10% to 14% long-term adjusted EPS growth commitment. So ultimately, this is going to help us reduce our cost to serve, great operating leverage, be more competitive and have the capacity to keep investing in the growth.

In terms of where the savings come from, we expect roughly 70% to 80% of that $3 billion in gross savings to come from automation, modernization and talent effectiveness and the remaining $20 million to $30 million from improvements in the vendor space. So we're targeting those savings over the back year period that began this year.

We look forward to providing some more color on the shaping and cadence in the fourth quarter earnings call. And I would just point to on your question specifically to related to the cost. The costs in order to execute this are reflected in the strategic optimization program disclosures that will come as part of the Q. And I would describe them is mostly concentrated on the employee side, severance and other sort of onetime costs in order to execute some of the savings that we're doing this year that will carry into next year.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jason Cassorla with Guggenheim Securities.

Jason Cassorla

I wanted to ask a little bit more on Evernorth for 2027. One of the headwinds for PBS segment this year was lower customer script growth due to declines in client plan membership. I guess I'm just curious how you're thinking about that paradigm for 2027.

If you're assuming some level of headwind there that's perhaps more than offset by the strong 2027 selling season. Just any color around that would be helpful.

Brian Evanko

Jason, so I appreciate the question. And you're right, relative to 26, we've seen some decline in the pharmacy benefit services business, both in terms of scripts and overall customer accounts. I just would remind everyone, script counts are not really a great indicator of the financial health or success of this business anymore, particularly as specialty drugs have proliferated, representing a small percentage of prescriptions but over half of total drug spending.

Another reminder is we serve many health plan clients and our customer and script volumes are partially dependent upon their own membership growth or decline. So year-to-date, we did see some reduction in volumes from our Evernorth health plan clients, specifically partially driven by how some approach their Medicare and Medicaid product and pricing strategies. All that was broadly in line with expectations.

And as we indicated, our overall Evernorth business delivered solid financial performance through the third quarter of 26%, and we're pleased to reaffirm the full year outlook for Evernorth, incorporating all of those dynamics. As it relates to '27 and how to think about this dynamic relative to the selling season, we're tracking toward retention in the high 90s as I indicated earlier, similar to what we saw in '26, consistent with historical norms.

Additionally, our '27 new business performance is very strong. We're tracking to at least 2 million new PBS customers in 2027 with that new business written to targeted profit levels. And that's been generated from a combination of traditional PBM competitors as well as smaller alternate PBMs.

And as I indicated earlier, our new signature model is generating considerable interest both from existing clients as well as prospects as we look to scale in '20 and beyond. All this is evidence that our clients see us as a multiyear thought partner as they prepare for future changes in their pharmacy benefit programs.

So taken all together, these factors have been incorporated into the outlook that Ann introduced this morning. And as I mentioned in one of my earlier comments, enterprise revenue for the entire Cigna group is on track for an attractive rate of growth here in '27. Thanks for the question.

Operator

Our next question comes from Charles Rhyee with TD Cowen.

Charles Rhyee

As you've kind of talked about 340B here, it's not including the headwinds for specialty care and services. Can you help us understand a little bit why this might be a little bit of impact for you guys here versus maybe some of your peers.

Brian Evanko

Charles, I appreciate the question. Maybe I'll start with a little bit of background on the program and how we participate and core of your question on the '27 implications. The 340B program has been in place since the early '90s, as you know, designed to support access to care for vulnerable patients by allowing those hospitals who serve them to purchase drugs essentially at a lower cost and this remains a critical lifeline for many rural and safety net hospitals.

Over the years, we've seen the program experience changes around eligibility, contract pharmacy access, manufacturer participation, but it has endured given the criticality of the program's underlying purpose to support those rural and safety net hospitals. The way we participate in the 340B program is multifaceted. The most direct way is to Accredo, where we serve as a contract pharmacy in the 340B program.

Now importantly, our total number of 340B contract pharmacies is far below that of the large retail pharmacy chains. So our exposure as a result of a small fraction of what those competitors would have with those pharmacy chains would have. Overall, you should think of Accredo's participation as the 340B contract pharmacies being relatively small contributor to overall Evernorth earnings. I'd also note that the contribution of 340B is reflected within the specialty and care portion of Evernorth specifically.

Now as it relates to '27. There will be some modest downward pressure on our 27 results from the evolved 340B program requirements, but it's just not significant enough for us to call it out as a substantial headwind. And and the continued momentum across our broader specialty and care portfolio, as I described earlier, strong secular growth, distribution expansion, cost to fill improvements, allows us to generate income growth, that will be near the low end of our long-term growth algorithm for specialty and care of 8% to 12% per year.

So we'll be toward the lower end of that. Again, all that peak strength of the broad suite of capabilities we have across specialty and our expertise in serving those individuals with the most complex health care needs. So a modest headwind, but more than overcome by those other factors.

Charles Rhyee

And can I follow up with the OPPS cuts for Part B sort of infusion services. Does that have any impact -- I know it doesn't really get consolidated into your results, but just thinking about shields, and sort of the work they do. Would that have an impact for Shields at all? Or is that maybe an opportunity for Shields in helping hospitals?

Brian Evanko

Yes. I appreciate that question as well. So to your point, we have an investment position in Shield. So it doesn't -- the underlying performance of the Shields business does not consolidate into our income. We have essentially a preferred investment. So there is some income from that. But the underlying performance of the asset does not consolidate into our results.

To the core of your question, though, when the 340B rules and regulations change and the program gets more complicated, the demand for Shield services actually increases. So we've seen a lot of interest over the course of the last 12 to 24 months from hospitals and health systems who are seeking to optimize their own in-house pharmacies, their own in-house specialty capabilities for the services that Shields provides.

And the Shields performance has been really outstanding the last couple of years when you look at the underlying performance in both the top and bottom line. And a lot of that is many of these hospitals and health systems don't have the expertise in terms of inventory management, clinical coordination, accreditation services.

So we're able to essentially support them via shields and there is some synergy relative to client opportunities and cross-sells between our Evernorth portfolio and the Shields client base. So broadly speaking, that's how I would encourage you to think about the Shields component.

Operator

Next question comes from Elizabeth Anderson with Evercore ISI.

Elizabeth Anderson

I have a question about Stop Loss. Obviously, you're seeing some nice growth in sort of middle market and the premium is growing nicely there. Can you tell us a little bit more about like how Stop Loss is performing relative to the rural segment and sort of how your current expectations for Jan 1 pricing versus trend you're seeing there?

Brian Evanko

Elizabeth, I'll start and then hand it over to Ann to get into more of the specifics in terms of current performance and '27 implications. Big picture, our stop-loss book is performing well. and in line with what we talked about before in terms of '26 and '27 being the years where we are increasing the margin profile on that book of business back to target levels.

Most of that has been accomplished here in with the price actions we were able to secure and I've been really pleased with the strong retention on that book of business, which speaks to the strong consultation, the sales of client management teams within Cigna Healthcare doing great work. to ensure that we continue with those long-term relationships. But the overall stop-loss book continues to perform well.

And as we indicated earlier, that's 1 of the 3 enterprise tailwinds for '27 as we step into the new year. Ann, can you pick up a bit in terms of current year performance in the '27 price increases?

Ann Dennison

Sure. So as Brian said, it's tracking in line with what we expected. As we talked about before, we built out our analytics and clinical data so we can price at the right levels and also see early performance. And so those indicators are tracking well.

I'll give you an example. Year-to-date, we've seen relatively stable frequency trends and high-cost claimants across multiple attachment point levels. And that's played out consistent with our expectations, but also consistent with what we observed last year. So when we put it all together, along with the other indicators we watch, we're feeling good about Stop Loss book and where we expect to finish this year performance is in line with our pricing and planning and our margin recapture targets.

And as Brian just mentioned, our plan is to recapture a portion of the margin over this year and a portion next year. So with our visibility into the performance this year, our expectations from next year, our pricing, it captures this objective, and we're executing well against the plan. So we remain confident in our NCR range for this year, including stop logs and also executing on our -- the remainder of our cap margin recapture plan as we go through '27.

Operator

Our next question comes from Whit Mayo with Leerink Partners.

Unknown Analyst

This is [ Dean Dallas ] on for Whit. After some noise surrounding Arkansas last year, you reemphasized the value of integrating PBM and pharmacy capabilities. With Tennessee moving in a similar direction, being a bit of a different story considering Accredo's Memphis footprint. Has that at all changed how you think about Evernorth's operating model and the general flexibility you might need going forward?

Brian Evanko

Stephen, I'll take that one. So Stepping back, I think your question is about some of the state level activity relative to, I'll call it, vertical integration for lack of a better term, to put an umbrella term over it. .

As we talked about some of the prior questions here this morning, it's clear that our current health care system is on an unsustainable trajectory with affordability, fragmented patient experiences being common pain points. We're seeing some policymakers, legislators focusing on vertical integration as a potential root cause of these challenges in the health care system. For us, we do not pursue integration for its own sake.

Rather, we see tremendous benefits to patients through connecting data with individual context. Along with coordinating care across providers, plan designs, et cetera, and our Lead to One Vision is designed to drive personalization at scale.

And as I said earlier, a particular emphasis on those with the most clinically complex health care needs and our integrated capabilities allows us to do this even better and more effectively. And we have strong evidence of improved affordability results and greater patient satisfaction when care is integrated and coordinated for example, in our HealthSense oncology patient solution.

We provided a few examples of this during the Investor Day. For example, the evidence showing that a cancer patient's integrated journey saves $28,000 per person per year. or $2,000 per person per year of savings for an integrated customer who has cardiodiabesite. And it's not just affordability, it's also better health outcomes. For Cigna Healthcare, integrated customers showed 12% lower A1c for people with diabetes.

So these are all examples of our integrated model, playing itself up in the form of improved affordability and better patient experiences and improved health outcomes. So we believe the current composition of the Cigna Group and our 3 growth platforms, Cigna Healthcare, Specialty and Care, pharmacy benefit services is optimal, and we believe we're creating real value for customers in the market and value for shareholders with the current composition of the Cigna Group.

Operator

Our next question comes from Erin Wright with Morgan Stanley.

Erin Wilson Wright

At Investor Day, you talked about the next leg of growth in specialty, including greater opportunity across medical benefit side as well as on the distribution side to are these drivers we think about for '27? Or are these drivers that we're thinking about more longer term or anything you can quantify on that front?

Brian Evanko

Erin, I appreciate the question. You're right. Those are 2 specific areas that will continue to drive attractive growth in the Specialty and Care portfolio over time. And to the core of your question, distribution as well as the medical benefit are areas where we're comparatively underrepresented relative to the overall specialty space today.

So if you think about our distribution capabilities, CuraScript. Today, it's a $25 billion business. So already sizable, and it's been growing double digits for many years in a row, we see substantial opportunity to grow that even more rapidly in the future. So the introduction of our Evernorth wholesale capability that we talked about at the Investor Day is 1 example of expanding our reach in the distribution phase.

And you heard from Matt Broberg at Investor Day, we expect $20 billion of net new revenue in distribution in specialty by 2030, $25 billion from today we'll go to $45 billion by 2030, reflecting that distribution expansion. '27 will not see an outsized benefit per se from that. You should think of it as more a gradual build in that space over the course of the next 3 to 4 years.

And on the medical benefit, to your point, when you step back, the specialty market in aggregate is call it a $480 billion addressable market. roughly 60% of that is direct to patient. That's where we have particularly strong capabilities, strong market share. Our Accredo specialty pharmacy is pointed there with attractive market share. We continue to win business in the market. but we're already strong in that space.

The medical benefit, the other 40%, it's often provider administered specialty medications. We have comparatively small share in that space with just 6% or 7%. Similar to the distribution question, '27 wil not see outsized growth in our specialty medical business. In the later years in the decade when some of those biosimilars under the medical benefit start to hit that's when we'll see an uptick in the growth rate there.

So again, think of biosimilars for oncology, biosimilars for MS, we'll start to see more of an uptick later in the decade. So neither 1 of those are a specific outsized contributor to 27, but they're both exciting opportunities for our specialty and care portfolio to continue to perpetuate its growth.

Operator

I will turn the call back over to Brian Evanko for closing remarks.

Brian Evanko

Thank you very much and thanks for all of those questions. Let me just close with this. It's an exciting time here at The Cigna Group as our company unifies around a single vision Lead to One and begins to compound the distinctive capabilities we've developed to capture the opportunity set for us.

We have a clear strategic growth framework for creating long-term value, and we'll continue to execute with discipline across the enterprise. As we wrap up 2026 and look ahead to '27, we're energized by our strategy and execution momentum. We have a proven ability to lead and navigate change and it's a privilege to do so while serving our customers, patients and shareholders.

With that, I want to thank our team around the world for their commitment to our customers, for their partnership and collaboration and for their adaptability. Thank you for your time today and your interest in The Cigna Group.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes Cigna Group's Third Quarter 2026 Results Review. Cigna Investor Relations will be available to respond to additional questions shortly. .

A recording of this conference will be available for 10 business days following this call. You may access the recorded conference by dialing (866) 405-7290 and or (203) 369-0603. There is no passcode required for this replay. Thank you for participating. We will now disconnect.

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