凯雷集团 (CG) 2026年第三季度业绩电话会：资产变现与募资推动增长

凯雷集团（NASDAQ: CG）公布2026财年第三季度业绩，资产退出变现表现更加强劲，同时募资势头与待计费管理资产支撑了管理层对2027和2028年实现更快增长的展望。

核心要点

• 可分配利润同比增长17%至4.33亿美元，合每股1.12美元，部分得益于季度净已实现业绩报酬收入同比增至五倍达1亿美元。
• 管理费相关收益（FRE）为2.93亿美元，利润率为47%。年内迄今FRE达到创纪录的9.5亿美元，管理层预计全年FRE将创凯雷历史新高。
• 凯雷本季度募资110亿美元，年内迄今累计募资410亿美元。管理层预计第四季度资金流入至少达200亿美元，使全年资金流入达到约600亿美元。
• 待计费管理资产规模（AUM）同比增长近50%至280亿美元。该资金一旦全部激活，预计将产生超过2.3亿美元的年化管理费。
• 过去一年中，凯雷向全球私募股权投资者返还了240亿美元。在企业私募股权投资方面，分配收益相当于公允价值的21%，管理层称这几乎是行业平均水平的两倍。
• 截至季度末，公司拥有940亿美元的可用资本，并表示业务正处于预计将延续至2027年和2028年的多年募资周期初期。

关键财务数据

业务与经营表现

全球信贷业务

全球信贷业务年内迄今创造了创纪录的3.24亿美元FRE，同比增长8%。受管理费增长10%的支撑，第三季度FRE同比增长11%至9300万美元。

该板块本季度录得70亿美元的资金流入，期末管理资产规模（AUM）达到2070亿美元。资本投放总额达50亿美元，主要由流动性信贷、航空及机会型信贷策略领跑。凯雷还在第四季度完成了一笔77亿美元的资产支持融资交易，管理层表示该交易无需资产负债表承诺。

全球私募股权业务

得益于已实现业绩报酬收入的改善，全球私募股权业务可分配利润同比增长逾60%至2.37亿美元。FRE为1.31亿美元，计费AUM总额达960亿美元。

本季度已实现退出收益达57亿美元，过去12个月累计达240亿美元。资本投放近40亿美元，其中包括凯雷新设立的国防与工业平台的首笔交易。

凯雷目前拥有近60亿美元已签约的退出项目，预计将于2026年第四季度或2027年年内完成交割。在业绩电话会召开时，上市投资组合持仓较第三季度末上涨17%，为基金投资者带来了超过10亿美元的额外增值。

财富管理与常青策略

管理层表示，过去12个月财富渠道资金流入增长24%，而财富管理AUM同比增长30%。在电话会召开前夕，一款私募股权产品的AUM突破了10亿美元。

近期财富业务的增长主要由常青产品推动。随着2027年和2028年更多旗舰基金募资的推进，凯雷预计分期出资（drawdown）策略的比重将进一步增加。

资本管理

截至季度末，凯雷资产负债表资产超过70亿美元，约合每股近20美元。公司宣布派发每股普通股0.35美元的季度股息。

年内迄今，公司已回购或代扣缴1500万股股票，其中包括第三季度的450万股。年内总股数减少约2%，公司20亿美元的回购授权额度中还剩余14亿美元。

管理层业绩指引

管理层表示，2026年FRE增速大致符合其中个位数增长的既定计划，不过最终结果可能会略有不及，并视资金流动情况出现一到两个百分点的浮动。

凯雷预计第四季度资金流入至少达200亿美元，这将使其成为公司募资表现最强劲的季度之一。全年资金流入预计将达到约600亿美元，较上年增长10%以上。

管理层预计，随着下一代旗舰基金激活，2027年管理费收入将大幅增长。280亿美元的待计费AUM预计将为2027年和2028年的收入增长做出贡献；从历史上看，基金激活通常需要约12至24个月，部分取决于信贷投放进度。

风险与关注领域

• 管理层预计，由于通胀持续，利率将在更长时间内维持高位。高利率导致Fortitude第三季度的列报公允价值减少约50亿美元，但管理层强调，这并非资金外流，所管理的资产也未发生改变。
• 募资时间表仍对宏观经济走势、法律文件流程以及投资者的季节性因素高度敏感。部分原定于第四季度完成募集交割的基金可能会推迟至2027年第一季度。
• 今年早些时候，私募信贷行业普遍面临赎回压力。凯雷表示，赎回规模已开始企稳并呈现回落态势。
• 凯雷对AI和数据中心的信贷结构、抵押品及集中的资金流向仍持谨慎态度。管理层预计，随着市场明朗度提高，投资机会将会改善，但公司仍打算保持投资组合的分散化。
• 由于收入取决于投资、融资及退出活动发生的时间节点，各季度之间的交易与顾问费可能仍会保持不均衡。

分析师问答精选

分析师高度关注资产变现退出储备及其对募资的影响。管理层表示，返还资本仍是一项核心差异化优势，在私募股权领域尤为如此，并对CP9、国防与工业、信贷及其他策略的募资起到了支撑作用。

关于CP9，管理层预计将在未来几个月内完成首期关账。此前公布的50亿美元基石出资承诺将成为该期关账的一部分，而非在其之外的增量资金。

关于2027年FRE的增长，管理层拒绝拆分现有待投资金（dry powder）、资本投放以及新募资金各自的贡献。不过，管理层仍表示有信心新旗舰基金、管理费激活、资本市场活动及交易费将共同支撑增长。

管理层还重申了对被投企业杠杆率的审慎态度。凯雷表示，相较于债务再融资或更低利率，运营改善、业务分拆执行、行业整合（roll-up）策略、市场营销、AI及数据科学是更重要的价值创造驱动因素。

财报电话会议完整实录

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完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Carlyle Group's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this call may be recorded.

I would now like to turn the call over to Daniel Harris, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Daniel Harris

Thank you, Michelle. Good morning, and welcome to Carlyle's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. With me on the call this morning is our Chief Executive Officer, Harvey Schwartz; and our Chief Financial Officer, Justin Plouffe.

Earlier this morning, we issued a press release and a detailed earnings presentation, which is available on our Investor Relations website. This call is being webcast, and a replay will be available. We will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures during today's call. These measures should not be considered in isolation from or as a substitute for measures prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. We will have provided reconciliation of these measures to GAAP in our earnings release to the extent reasonably available.

Any forward-looking statements made today do not guarantee future performance, and undue reliance should not be placed on them. These statements are based on current management expectations and involve inherent risks and uncertainties, including those identified in the Risk Factors section or annual report on Form 10-K that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated. Carlyle assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements at any time. In order to ensure participation by everyone on the call today, please limit yourself to one question and return to the queue for any additional follow-ups.

And with that, let me turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Harvey Schwartz.

Harvey Schwartz

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We delivered a strong quarter -- strong third quarter for our shareholders with distributable earnings of $1.12 per share one of our best quarters ever, this is up 17% from a year ago and driven by a fivefold increase in net realized performance revenues. More importantly, we continue to build momentum across the global platform as we execute our strategic plans. We have a near record level of pending fee-earning AUM that was resulting more than $230 million in new management fees when activated. We continue to lead the industry in returning capital with distributions where our clients approaching $100 billion since the beginning of 2024, and we are just in the early stages of a powerful fundraising super cycle that will accelerate growth over the next several years.

Before I walk through the highlights, I want to spend a few minutes on the macro environment. The first observation I'll make is that the underlying economic engine remains quite strong. Our Carlyle economic indicators systematically roll up time series data across all of our portfolio companies, which collectively employ approximately 750,000 people. This gives us a unique perspective on underlying economic activity. The data shows that annualized revenues grew at 6%, while EBITDA grew at a double-digit rate. This points to a durable and healthy economy, showing resiliency even during periods when market sentiment has been more volatile. The strong economy in combination with sticky inflation reinforces our long-held view that rates will stay higher for longer. That view reflects more than 5 years of inflation above the Fed's target.

We've been adapting this higher environment for a long time and have found that a more normalized cost of capital towards disciplined underwriting, operational experts and global scale, all of which are Carlyle strengths. At the same time, geopolitical dynamics are reshaping the global investment landscape. In nearly every conversation with clients and government officials, new priorities come up security and economic growth. whether it's national security, energy security or data security, those priorities are driving enormous demand for capital in areas where we have deep expertise.

With U.S. midterm elections behind us, the results were more decisive than expected, but the outcome was largely as anticipated. The favorable market reaction is consistent with historical trends as greater clarity on the political landscape helps reduce uncertainty. And as I've said before, confidence is the greatest selector for markets. Now a few highlights from the quarter. First, in global private equity, we remain a significant outlier in returning capital to our clients. Across our global private equity segment, we returned $24 billion to our clients over the past year and drilling down into corporate private equity we returned 21% of fair value to investors over the past year. That's nearly double the industry average and represents levels not seen since 2021.

As a firm, we made a strategic decision to monetize assets and return capital to investors, substantial liquidity we've delivered over the past several years has addressed investors' needs and contributed directly to our success in attracting new capital. Second, we continue to see real operating momentum in Global Credit. During the quarter, we brought in more than $7 billion of inflows into Global Credit, Fortitude reinsurance transaction with Unum Group, which closed earlier this week, we had more than $5 billion to our AUM in the fourth quarter. More recently, we announced a $7.7 billion asset-backed finance transaction with [ Truvis ] Financial Corporation, which shows how we're helping banks manage their balance sheet while giving our investors access with an attractive set of investment opportunities.

These transactions underscore the accelerating demand for the strategy we built in private credit and insurance. Third, we have systematically diversified our revenue stream over the last 3 years. Transaction fees over the past year are a record $164 million, more than 3x the 2023 level. We've also delivered record year-to-date fee-related performance revenue driven by record AUM in our global wealth platform. Looking ahead, we're seeing strong momentum across our businesses, and we expect the fourth quarter to be one of our strongest ever for inflows, which Justin will discuss shortly. To wrap up, the forward momentum across our global platform is exceptional. We're delivering for our shareholders and are well positioned to build on that success in 2027 and beyond.

With that, let me turn the call over to Justin.

Justin Plouffe

Thanks, Harvey, and good morning, everyone. We delivered a strong third quarter with a step-up in realizations and healthy net realized performance revenue. We generated distributable earnings of $433 million in the third quarter or $1.12 per share. That's up 17% from a year ago. Year-to-date, distributable earnings were $1.2 billion or $3.08 per share. Fee-related earnings were $293 million at a 47% margin. And year-to-date, FRE was a record $950 million. As we look forward, we expect full year FRE to be the highest in our firm's history. Fund management fees were $1.65 billion year-to-date and were $547 million in the quarter. We expect management fees to step up meaningfully in 2027 as we activate the next generation of our flagship funds.

Transaction fees were a record $197 million year-to-date, up 25% compared to the same period last year and $33 million in the quarter. Fee-related performance revenues were also a record at $184 million year-to-date, up 46% compared to the same period last year and were $50 million in the quarter. Net realized performance revenues were $235 million year-to-date and our third quarter result of $100 million increased fivefold from a year ago. This increase was driven by a diverse set of strategies in private equity and our global energy platform. Realized proceeds from our carry funds were $28 billion year-to-date, up 25% from the prior period and were $9 billion in the third quarter. Net accrued performance revenues were $2.1 billion, on a per share basis, this equates to over $6 per share of future earnings power.

Turning now to inflows. We raised $41 billion year-to-date and $11 billion in the quarter. we expect to close out the year with 1 of our best ever inflow quarters in Q4 with at least $20 billion of inflows expected, including the $5 billion transaction in the Unum Group that Harvey mentioned earlier. That is expected to bring full year inflows to about $60 billion, more than 10% above last year's level. As of the third quarter, total AUM was $479 million, and even more importantly, pending fee-earning AUM rose to $28 billion, up almost 50% year-over-year and nearly the highest level in the firm's history. That pending amount reflects a diverse set of strategies that have raised capital but have not yet activated fees, and it will give us more than $230 million of annualized management fees once fully activated. We expect this capital to be a key driver of our top line growth in 2027.

Again, this is important to note, we remain at the very beginning of our multiyear fundraising super cycle. We ended the quarter with $94 billion of available capital for investment, also approaching the highest level in firm history. This capital is spread across all 3 segments with $40 billion in global private equity, in Carlyle Alpinvest and $22 billion in Global Credit. Now let me turn to the individual segments, starting with Global Credit. Fee-related earnings were a record $324 million year-to-date, up 8% compared to the same period last year. For the third quarter, fee-related earnings were $93 million, 11% higher than a year ago driven by 10% increase in management fees. Fee-related performance revenues in Global Credit continued to build with $120 million year-to-date, up 40% compared to last year.

Total AUM ended the quarter at $207 billion, which was supported by $7 billion of inflows, including a strong first close in our latest Vince opportunistic credit fund. Deployment was $5 billion in the quarter, led by our liquid credit, aviation and opportunistic credit strategies. [Indiscernible] delivered record year-to-date FRE of $222 million. including $68 million in Q3. Run rate management fees increased 16% year-to-date after adjusting for catch-up fees. Total AUM was $110 billion, up 8% year-over-year with $15 billion of inflows over the last 12 months. This strong momentum reflects the broad array of investment solutions that [Indiscernible] has introduced over the past several years. [Indiscernible] historically invested largely through closed-end carry funds and institutional SMAs, but we have systematically introduced new evergreen strategies for the wealth channel and new verticals like portfolio finance and credit secondaries, which have allowed [Indiscernible] to expand its investor base and its universe of investable assets.

Shifting to global private equity. Third quarter distributable earnings were $237 million, up more than 60% year-over-year on higher net realized performance revenue. Fee-related earnings were $131 million in the quarter and fee earning AUM was $96 billion. GPE realized proceeds were $5.7 billion in the quarter and $24 billion for the last 12 months with notable exits, including Rigaku, Camino Natural Resources and Tecan Group. Deployment was nearly $4 billion, including Sicturion, first transaction from our new defense and industrials platform.

Finally, let me turn to capital management. We ended the quarter with over $7 billion of balance sheet assets or almost $20 per share. We declared a quarterly dividend of $0.35 per common share, consistent with our dividend policy. We repurchased or withheld a record 15 million shares year-to-date, including 4.5 million shares in the quarter. Our share count is down about 2% thus far this year as we continue to actively manage dilution and see value in our share price. We have $1.4 billion remaining on our $2 billion share repurchase authorization giving us ample ability to continue managing share count.

As Harvey noted, the underpinnings of our platform continued to show strong momentum. We remain on track for our 3-year plan and are confident that growth will accelerate as we move through our fundraising super cycle. With that, let me turn it back to the operator to take your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Alexander Blostein with Goldman Sachs.

分析师问答

Alexander Blostein

So wanted to ask you guys around the growth outlook for the rest of the year and also into 2027. Just given your comments around accelerating momentum that you expect in the business. You highlighted a number of times now that 2026 is a bit of a transition year, which we're obviously seeing play out. So maybe a couple of questions. One, should we still expect FRE growth to be in mid-single digits for 2026, and then secondly, maybe you could speak to the budgeting of management fee growth into 2027 and kind of some of the key building blocks.

Harvey Schwartz

I appreciate the question. So yes, I think at the end of the year, we told you guys this would be more of a muted year for growth. It's more or less exactly on plan. give or take, I'd say, mid-single digits, might fall a little bit short of that as we come through the end. It really depends on how the flow is, but we're talking 1% or 2% either side of that. So we're not talking meaningful numbers. So again, it's more or less on plan. In terms of where we're really feeling quite good about the plan is the momentum in the aggregate franchise around the buildup in the beginning of the super cycle.

So as Justin mentioned, we really wanted to give you some sense of this. Obviously, as we come into the end of the year, we're also 1 month in the quarter. The fund flows feel quite good coming into the fourth quarter, who knows of the world also and we are curveball and some things will move into the first quarter, but that's irrelevant. So fund flows, inflows feel quite good. And I think the momentum going into 27 all feels quite good. I think the question was really or more about the macro environment, what plays out over the next 3 to 6 months.

We're seeing good momentum in the wealth channel, and we expect that to keep growing. But I would say that's probably the only thing that's been a bit of a headwind for the industry and obviously, in credit, and we've experienced a bit of that as well. But otherwise, everything goes more or less on plan. exactly as we described to you guys give or take 1% or 2. Now where we're really outperforming obviously, on the realization side. That continues. The pipeline of realizations actually feels quite good still. So in that sense, the momentum and the flows feel quite good across the whole platform.

Operator

Our next question comes from Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research.

Steven Chubak

So I was hoping to double click into some of the comments you just made, Harvey on the monetization outlook. Despite the challenged environment for some of the public holdings, you managed to realize a good chunk of the book this quarter. Rigaku, among others. I was hoping you could speak to how you're thinking about the monetization pipeline over the next 3 to 6 months? It sounds like you guys are still seeing some good momentum there. And what's your line of sight on monetizations in early '27 and beyond? And how is that informed by the midterm outcome? If you can speak to that, too.

Harvey Schwartz

I'll let Justin walk you through a bit in terms of how we think about it, what we generally do is we give you insight into things that we actually know are in queue. So we don't really speculate beyond that. Just orebody has a sense of how we frame the numbers every time. So when we talk about it, absent market disruptions, we talk about it with a very high degree of confidence, but a lot has obviously happened. I would say, stepping back before Justin walks through the details.

I think the market reaction to the midterm is consistent with history. The market, broadly speaking, tends to like something that approaches more of a gridlock situation in the second half of an administration. I think what we saw yesterday less specifically around private markets, but public markets, I think what we saw was really the reaction to the degree to which the outcome though expected directionally actually ended up being more significant. Obviously, some of this is around the whole anticipation and thought process about capital flowing into data centers and AI.

As you know, strategically as a firm, we've approached this in a more diversified, I would say, on a relative basis, more cautious, if you want to say, approach to allocating capital. And so particularly in credit, we've stayed very diversified around that. I actually think as we come into '27 and '28, this will give us a good resolution in terms of how people should think about AI and the data center actually is going to open up more opportunities, for folks like us as we get more clarity around the processes and how this will play. But in terms of like the near-term outlook and things that we're seeing, let me have Justin will go through the numbers.

Justin Plouffe

Yes. And Steve, as you know, realizations have been a strength for us for a while. We're actually approaching $100 billion of realizations now over the past 3 years. So this has been a consistent theme for us. Right now, we've got almost $6 billion of deals already signed up for exits that will come through in Q4, and some of those will be in 2027. But we continue to see momentum on the realization side. It's been a strength for us. and we're continuing to return capital to LPs, which obvious they like. And to Harvey's point, I think the market for realizations is going to react well to stability and having one more thing taken off the table in terms of uncertainty. So I expect the market for realizations will continue to be strong for us.

Steven Chubak

On the public physicians, obviously, you guys track all the public physicians that were a little muted for a while. Obviously, more recently, I don't know what are the current numbers, Justin.

Justin Plouffe

Well, yes, they were a bit more muted in Q3, but they're up 17% since the end of the quarter, which is $1 billion, actually a little more than $1 billion in value for our investors just in the last month. So we don't focus on the day-to-day movements of public stocks. We focused on whether or not we own good companies, and we think we do. But since the end of the quarter, we've really seen momentum there.

Operator

Our next question comes from Brennan Hawken with BMO Capital Markets.

Brennan Hawken

So I was curious, I looked at the AUM roll forward, and saw that within credit, there was a $5.7 billion headwind from market and other to the fee-paying AUM line. The carry fund performance doesn't seem to reflect that. So I was guessing maybe it was SMAs. Could you maybe unpack what might have caused that and how we should think about that going forward?

Justin Plouffe

Yes. That's actually sort of a simple, Brennan, although it doesn't -- isn't obvious and jump off the page. Rates went up during the quarter. And what that means is that the fair value of assets at our Fortitude affiliate go down. It doesn't mean it changes really the amount that we're managing. It doesn't change anything about performance. It's not outflows. That $5 billion is really just the impact of higher rates on the Fortitude fair value mark. Overall, look, we're returning capital to investors at a high rate, which we said, which is a good thing, and that's what you want us to do. So there's some AUM impact of that, but the particular one you mentioned is really just the math on higher rates.

Operator

Our next question comes from Mike Brown with UBS.

Michael Brown

If you could touch on the fundraising in the wealth channel. How have the inflows been into the drawdown and Evergreens here? And is it -- can you talk about is it kind of a challenge raising in both types currently? And then on the Evergreen specifically, can you maybe just provide a pulse-check on the gross sales by major fund and then how redemptions could trend for [Indiscernible] based on some of your real-time conversations in the channel?

Harvey Schwartz

Yes, sure. Look, we continue to have really strong momentum in the well channel. Our inflows are 24% up. LTM, our AUMs 30% up. year-over-year. So wealth continues to be a growth engine for us. I'd particularly call out our products in [Indiscernible] which continue to take in strong inflows. And then our [Indiscernible] product, which is our Harlow wide private equity product that actually just as of yesterday, crossed $1 billion in AUM. So we're seeing great momentum there. At a high level, obviously, the entire market in private credit started to have some noise around it back in the spring. We're starting to see redemption levels stabilize and come down. So those products continue to perform across the industry, I think you'll see that turnaround as well. So look, wealth for us continues to be a growth driver. We've got great momentum, and we expect it to be key for us in '27 and beyond.

Michael Brown

And sorry, you're also seeing some capital flowing through to CP9 from the wealth channel?

Justin Plouffe

So we haven't had a first close there. Whether or not the wealth channel will be a part of that. I'm sure it will be part of all of our major fundraises. But what we tried to do in the wealth channel is be really thoughtful about the products that we're bringing to that channel and make sure they're really designed well for that channel. I think CPAP is a great example of that. We spent a lot of time designing that product as a private equity product that made sense for individual wealth investors. We intentionally rolled it out slowly last year, and now we're getting on the big platforms. And I think because it was designed well for that channel, that's one of the reasons we're seeing so much momentum there.

Harvey Schwartz

My only because I think this is at the core of your question in the way you asked it, but I think Justin has covered [Indiscernible] all of that is, I think in sort of like the mix of drawdown versus Evergreen, virtually, and the team will confirm all these number of the off-line in detail if you want. But it's really been all driven by Evergreen, which has been our focus. We really haven't been in the market with drawdown. As the super cycle begins, there'll be a component of drawdown for funds that make sense for drawdown. But what we were just really walking you through is the evergreen mix which, as you know, there wasn't much of an evergreen strategy a couple of years ago, but the team has really done a remarkable job of bringing things to market. But there really hasn't been drawdown activity. But that's in queue for '27, '28.

Operator

Our next question comes from Glenn Schorr with Evercore.

Glenn Schorr

So I wonder if you could help us on even just conceptually on the FRE ramp through '27 and '28. You have a tonne dry powder I'm curious on, in a normal-ish backdrop, wherever that means. Is that a 1- or 2-year deployment or 2- or 3-year deployment? What I'm trying to get at is how much of that FRE ramp from this like low single-digit number is within your control in terms of deploying capital that you already have? And how much do we have to rely on the super cycle happening and the market could or could not help or take that away. So you get what I'm getting at because what's within your...

Harvey Schwartz

Yes. I understand the question. We're not going to unpack that completely for you. So I only tell you that so that you can be prepared to be dissatisfied. But let me give you the sort of theoretical framing and thinking about it. So when the way we think about the super cycle -- and we have some good feel for the super cycle in terms of, again, barring unforeseen macro factors, what's in queue, what the momentum build looks like. And obviously, in many cases, as we raise those funds, you immediately get fees in those drawdown vehicles, et cetera. In terms of the backlog of deployment, I think you're just seeing sort of the transition of very, very large monetization period, certainly relative to the industry group and then the buildup in new capital.

So we're in this transition mode, again, which going back to the plan we walked you through earlier this year, it's more or less spot on with the plan with a couple of give and takes. And so you should expect build as we come through '27. And I think where you can draw confidence from all this is because we have these different levers. We have capital markets activity, which again flywheels off of the fundraising actually having all the funds in a position where they can drive capital markets activity. So we're feeling pretty confident about all that collective momentum. Hard to unbundle precise deployment because we put no pressure on the teams to deploy. What we really demand from the teams is that they price the risk correctly -- and we're seeing some pretty attractive opportunities out there. And I think as we come into '27, we're going to continue to see great opportunities to price marginal risk.

But that's how the teams are thinking about deployment. We obviously control more of the factors around the fundraising. So really, it only ends up being really a factor of timing. But what we'll try and do is, at some point in '27, we'll give you a more detailed update. So you can wrap your brain around it. I hope that was helpful.

Operator

Our next question comes from Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank.

Brian Bedell

Great. Maybe just to go back to the monetization cycle. To what extent do you expect this pace to accelerate your fundraising plans as we come into '27? And in terms of that return on capital, which areas could it help influence the fund? I think clearly, CP9 is one of them. But maybe if you can comment on what other types of strategies in Global PE and maybe even in credit, would benefit from the acceleration of return of capital?

Justin Plouffe

Sure. Thanks, Brian. Look, I think they all benefit from return of capital because it's probably the #1 issue on LP's minds. So it's particularly pronounced in PE. The PE industry has been challenged in terms of return of capital. Obviously, we have not. We've been one of the outliers in that space. Certainly, CP9, our defense and industrial strategy. But even in credit, I would say, the realizations we've had in [Indiscernible] returning capital, showing improving out that strategy have really helped us with the fund raise there. We had a great set of first closings in Q3 with over $3.3 billion in that strategy.

So it's top of LP mines. Returning capital is going to benefit every one of our strategies, particularly in private equity. But that's why we're going to continue to do it, and we've always done this. And I can't emphasize that enough. Our teams think about exits at the moment that we make the investment. So for us to say we're doing $100 billion. That's an outlier over 3 years for the industry. But for us, I mean, this is what we plan to do. This is right on track and LPs greatly appreciate that.

Operator

Our next question comes from Ken Worthington with JPMorgan.

Kenneth Worthington

[Indiscernible] has been active in recent quarters buying blocks of business, does the change in the interest rate outlook although the opportunity or appetite to buy and execute on these blocks? And maybe talk a little bit about how dialogue is going to continue to expand that business.

Harvey Schwartz

So the short answer to that is no. Obviously, interest rates have an impact on the overall environment every asset class. I think that -- what the team has been quite focused on is the integrated approach to managing insurance capital around the globe. And what Fortitude does obviously gives us the ability to provide kit. But if you think of the -- the entire insurance space globally, where we're getting the collective momentum as a solution provider and as a fiduciary because obviously, we're not in the annuity business. is the ability to be a third-party provider of capital, but also an asset manager at the same time.

So if an insurer has a capital need, obviously, Fortitude can be that capital provider. But more broadly across the insurance space, the types of transactions we're doing in asset-based finance, aviation finance, some of those solutions that we're putting together and Carlyle, all of these are very valuable solutions in private investment rate. And so this is all about completing out that aspect of the platform so that we can be a solution provider for any insurer, whether they -- whether they desire capital or risk transfer or whether they're in an excess capital position and they want to deploy capital for us to manage. But that's how it fits.

Operator

Our next question comes from Mason Fleming with Barclays Capital.

Benjamin Budish

This is actually Ben Budish from Barclays. You talked about the realization cycle being supportive of flows. I was wondering if you could just click in more to CP9 specifically, that's obviously kind of your largest flagship fund in the market. We've seen I think $5 billion come in so far. So curious if you could update on that one, any kind of changing near-term expectations and your confidence on being able to raise more than the predecessor fund.

Harvey Schwartz

So the -- the specifics on the narrative around the fundraising we're really constrained on what we can talk about. But obviously, we'll be having our first close coming up in the next couple of months. so you'll have more insight into that. I think to add to what Justin was saying before on a prior question. So in terms of fund flows and returning capital, in private equity broadly where we've been the most significant outlier, we get the most significant benefit. So in a sector where clients are feeling that they're not getting out of return on capital.

If you're one of the outliers that's actually returning capital, obviously, that resonates with them. And so again, this was a strategic decision we made a couple of years ago. We like the market environment, we knew we had the right companies. We had very little exposure to software or areas where very high multiple positions, we're struggling to come to the marketplace. I think it's still going to take the industry a bit of time to digest the capital that is a bit trapped. But for us, we've seen a unique window relative to the industry group.

And so we've obviously been monetizing a lot of assets and will continue. I think that just sets us up better for front raising over time and speaks to the breadth of the diversification of the business. So in particular for private equity, when you can return capital or any sector where others aren't, it's a differentiating factor. So it's a plus.

Operator

Our next question comes from Dan Welden with Wells Fargo.

Daniel F. Welden

I wanted to follow up on your comments on AI credit. -- and data center investments where you've been more cautious, it sounds like you might see better risk-adjusted returns in this new backdrop. How do you think about approaching that market? Are we talking about sort of or maybe more deployment from existing funds, raising new special precise funds? Or is it more of a capital markets focus? Like how do you think about waiting into that area?

Harvey Schwartz

Yes. So we put out or Jenkins, [Indiscernible] President, Head of Credit Insurance and Jason Thomas put out a paper not too long without a lot of attention, which I think for some of the media was a little misunderstood, but the core of it really reflected our investment thesis as it relates to the space broadly, which is, one, we are very, very strong believers in the impact of AI, the technology, what it will do over time. What we are a little more cautious about where some of the uncertainties around structures, collateral, the rush of capital and just not repeating some of the mistakes that were made just a couple of years ago by parts of the marketplace in the [Indiscernible], right?

So we didn't want to be over allocated and particularly, this relates to credit, where we felt like the strategy that Mark and the team have been driving for a long time, but success is, look, there's a lot of value and diversification. And so this is about not being over allocated and the same as it relates to equity. Now I think as we move through this part of the cycle, my own personal view is data centers are going to get built. This is a problem that is not going to be an ability to have data centers. I think actually, what we're going to do is we're going to end up getting to a place where we have actually more certainty around this. And I think as we get more clarity, the risk adjuster actually even get better as a deployer of capital. So I see there's an opportunity set.

In terms of the ability to raise special purpose vehicles or things like that, that's always an opportunity set. But I was really talking about the framework over the next 18 months. I actually think the opportunity to put capital will become more attractive. If we are not ever going to violate the first principle about diversification here because I think we think it makes it just better global returns for our clients and more durable returns for the firm. We're big believers in the thesis. And as we get more clarity and work through part of the cycle, I actually think you'll see some pretty attractive risk-adjusted returns with more certainty.

Operator

Our next question comes from Bill Katz with CD Cowen.

Unknown Analyst

This is Robin Holly on for Bill Katz. We wanted to ask about the $8 billion loan acquisition from Truist. Are there any puts and takes to the timing of how you bring this into fee-paying AUM? And are there any balance sheet considerations from Carlyle? And what are the expected fee economics to Carlyle from the transaction?

Justin Plouffe

Yes. So that was a Q4 transaction, and so you'll see it flow through next quarter. There's nothing particularly unusual about it, not a balance sheet commitment just a transaction done by our asset-backed finance team. One of the teams, I think, that has had some of the best deployment for us over the course of the past year. So I think it's just another example of the capabilities we have in asset-backed finance, a growing business for us, but nothing in particular unusual about it in terms of fees or balance sheet.

Harvey Schwartz

Yes. I think the only takeaway you should have is we've emphasized this business for a couple of years now. Team has done an amazing job. They've been very disciplined about how they built the business, designed the business, deploy the capital, growing the business. But this wasn't something that the business was capable doing 3 years ago, but clearly, you've seen a number of large transactions, and they're front and center in a lot of these important flows.

Operator

Our next question comes from Crispin Love with Piper Sandler.

Unknown Analyst

Can you share some of the drivers in the transaction and advisory fee line in the quarter? It was a little lighter compared to recent quarters. some peers had more elevated levels. And I understand these can be lumpier, but just curious on the drivers in the third quarter and perhaps more importantly, the outlook just look longer-term growth opportunity in this line?

Harvey Schwartz

Yes. Quarter-to-quarter, it's going to periodically be lumpy. I think the underscoring point you have to remember is we're not really deploying any balance here. So the quality of the revenue stream here is as high quality as you would like. it's all going to flow off of activity levels. So sometimes you'll see an announcement, then you'll see fees come in, in the next quarter, the subsequent 2 quarters. But it's all about the integrated flywheel effect of building a higher-quality revenue stream without committing balance sheet or de minimis balance sheet when needed to drive those fees.

And so I guess if we were deploying lots of balance sheet, we could probably smooth out that activity. It's just not the lower quality earnings that we want to drive for right now. This is really just all about the franchise and what the franchise is able to drive. And so Again, as we come through the super cycle of fundraising, that creates more activity, more deployment, more fees, but it's not going to be linear quarter-to-quarter, but you've seen the growth we've had over the last couple of years, and we expect it to continue to build.

Operator

Our next question comes from Michael Cyprys with Morgan Stanley.

Michael Cyprys

So you've talked about entering a significant fundraising cycle here with a number of flagships coming to the market. I was just hoping you could speak to what you're seeing in terms of institutional demand trends how that's evolving in the context of just the broader industry backdrop being a bit lighter from realization. I understand that you guys have been a bit more active so that should be helpful. And as we look to '27, I guess, how much visibility do you have on a more meaningful acceleration in fundraising? And how should we be thinking about the timing of fund activations?

Harvey Schwartz

So I think at the highest level, the easiest way to do it is to just break down the industry segments. From an institutional perspective, I would say that secondaries co-invest solutions business, right in the center of a huge amount of institutional interest and activity. And that actually do a lot of things, not just the fact that the flip side of that coin is that the industry has been slow to monetize on the private equity side. But portfolio structuring and being a real solution provider has proved to be a really unique advantage. So it may just be reallocating across asset classes or how to think about funds. And so the momentum there feels quite sticky and persistent right now.

I would say in credit. It feels quite good also for the wealth [Indiscernible], which credit obviously has had some challenges for the industry. I think institutional activities continue to pick up, and they're seeing value across credit. And that -- when I say that, I'm not really just talking about a narrow slice and I'm talking fully across the cap stack from investment grade all the way through, you've seen also great [Indiscernible] for us. And so I'd say that the institutional level of activity in credit is quite good.

And then in private equity, I would say the institutional activity. Hard to say. I would say in terms of, again, the big problems for the industry is that the peer group is not returning enough capital broadly speaking across the industry, but I think that, that has likely sort of hit a bottom now whether or not we see a huge uptick. But clearly, for our asset classes, aerospace, defense, government services, things we do in diversified energy, healthcare, those are in vogue. I think if you just ended up in the unfortunate position where you had a technology disruption with very high multiple and a lot of SaaS exposure, it's a little more difficult. But it feels like institutional interest, particularly around those asset classes is picking up somewhat. But I wouldn't say it's a hockey stick at this stage. But the rest of -- across the rest of the industry, I think institutional feels quite good.

Michael Cyprys

And then just on the visibility into for acceleration and fundraising? How are you thinking about that?

Harvey Schwartz

As we talked about, we're in the beginning of the super cycle. I think Justin was pretty specific. It feels like the fourth quarter will be one of our best inflow quarters ever. And then we'll really be in the thick of things in '27 and '28. So -- but I can't -- we don't really think about it like accelerating from Q2 to Q1 or anything like that. I understand the models that U.S. have to build is just not the way we think we're the fundraising.

Operator

Our next question comes from Patrick Davitt with Autonomous Research.

Patrick Davitt

Most of the mine have been asked. I had a clarification on the CP9 point. It sounds like you see a first close in 4Q. So on that, I want to confirm that you already reported the $5 billion structured commitment in 2Q, right? So the first close will just be the amount above that $5 billion. Is that the right way to think about it?

Justin Plouffe

I think whether or not it's Q4 or the beginning of Q1, I wasn't specific about that, but in the next couple of months, but yes, I think you should do that. And that will likely be, as you've seen, I don't want to get stapled to a wall here on this. I would say that probably feels more like a 1A followed by 1B. And this is really just a question of timing for institutional investors to get docs done and seasonality and things like that. But yes, that will be a subcomponent of the first close would be to $5 billion.

Patrick Davitt

But the $5 billion has already been reported is my question. Like it's not whenever you...

Harvey Schwartz

We think it [Indiscernible]. But yes, that's reported. Obviously, we have to report that. But I view that as sort of like just a cornerstone part of the capital raise. That's not really the first close -- that's part of the first close, obviously. -- in the [Indiscernible].

Patrick Davitt

Has already run through the AUM flow forward? I'm just -- I'm trying to figure out like how big of a...

Harvey Schwartz

[Indiscernible].

Operator

Our next question comes from Bart Dziarski with RBC Capital Markets.

Bart Dziarski

I wanted to ask, given the higher rate environment, how are you evolving or adapting the value creation plans to ensure performance and private equity is not impacted. I presume there's more focus on operational value add. So anything you can help us understand through that would be great.

Harvey Schwartz

Yes. So one of the great things I stepped into when I arrived at Carlyle among the many great things. One was a, I would say, a very conservative approach to liability management at the portfolio companies. and a great capital markets team. Now we didn't have a capital markets fee business, which actually we built over that time. But we had a great liability management team, which has now extended all the work they do with Carlyle.

But we've always taken a conservative approach to interest rates. One of the reasons, in part, we've been able to have monetization is, I remember when I first got here 3 years ago when rates started to go up. we had really the most conservative liability structures. And so we haven't relied as much on interest rates or refinancings. When you actually go through the portfolio monetizations and the history of Carlyle, it's not interest rates per se that's driving value. Now sometimes you get cycles where, obviously, there was a long cycle where rates were lower and you could refinance and that was a value contributor to certain assets, but that hasn't been the driver of value creation.

We certainly, every time we acquire a company, the team is working with all of our economists to best understand how much risk they want to take from that perspective, but we're not aggressive risk takers when it comes to liability structures in those companies where we point our energy is on -- if it's a carve-out the expertise it requires to take a carve out, whether it's a roll-up strategy, how are we doing marketing, what are we doing in terms of AI. These are much more critical components or data science -- much more critical components to value creation than interest rates themselves. But we generally, as a firm, take a pretty conservative view to liability management, and that's just the history that Bill Conway and the founders ran the company with for 40 years.

Operator

Our next question comes from Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank.

Brian Bedell

Great. Just a couple of quick follow-ups. Just on transaction fees is the truest ABF. Is that something that will materially impact the fourth quarter transaction fees? And then just the -- maybe just some perspective on the timing of $230 million of pending AUM fees to come into the fee stream. I know it's always hard to predict, but maybe on the credit side, how would you think about timing of that [Indiscernible]?

Justin Plouffe

Yes, sure. So on the pending fee-earning AUM, very broad-based where that's coming from. So hard to say blanket statement. I would say, historically, it's kind of a 12- to 24-month type of number, but that will depend on credit deployment. [Indiscernible] was the fourth quarter deal. So you'll see that come through the fourth quarter numbers. we've got a number of things coming through in transaction fees in the fourth quarter. So I expect it will be a good quarter for us in that regard. But obviously, we've got 2 months left. So we'll have to see how that goes. But yes, for the pending fee-earning AUM, you're going to see that come through in '27 and '28. And as I said before, that's going to be a driver of our top line.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back over to Daniel Harris for any closing remarks.

Daniel Harris

Thank you, everyone, for your time today. Should you have any questions after the call, follow up with Investor Relations, and we look forward to talking to you again next quarter.

Operator

Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Good day.