Postal Realty Trust (PSTL) 2026年第三季度业绩电话会: 上调AFFO指引

Postal Realty Trust（NYSE: PSTL）公布2026财年第三季度每股AFFO实现增长、季度收购规模创历史新高，且备考杠杆率有所下降。在内生租金增长、收购增厚效应以及借贷成本改善的支撑下，管理层上调了全年AFFO及收购指引。

核心要点

• 第三季度每股AFFO为0.36美元，同比增加0.03美元，增幅为9.1%。管理层将这一增长主要归因于内生增长和收购带来的增厚效应。
• 公司在该季度以8200万美元收购了145处物业，加权平均现金资本化率为6.9%，新增面积38.8万平方英尺。
• 全年每股AFFO指引上调0.01美元至1.42-1.44美元。中值1.43美元代表8.3%的年度增长。
• Postal Realty将2026年收购指引上调至1.85亿至2亿美元，预计加权平均资本化率在7%低段。今年前九个月的收购总额约为1.62亿美元。
• 投资组合出租率保持在99.8%，历史租约续租率为99.6%。管理层重申2027年同店现金收入增长6.5%的目标。
• 计入未结算远期股权后，备考净债务与年化调整后EBITDA的比率降至3.5倍。此外，公司还获得了惠誉（Fitch）给予的BBB评级。

关键财务数据

业务与经营业绩

第三季度的收购包括101处最后一公里邮政局（总面积13万平方英尺）和44处多功能弹性物业（总面积25.8万平方英尺）。代表性资产包括位于纽约州布鲁克林、明尼苏达州圣保罗以及康涅狄格州格林威治的物业。

管理层表示，其收购策略旨在实现首日增厚效应，并通过租金按市价调整（mark-to-market）机会、运营效率提升以及每年3%的租金递增条款获取内在增长。2020年至2022年期间以超过3.7亿美元收购的物业（综合资本化率为7.1%），自收购以来的现金收益率已提升约200个基点。

第三季度的收购首日增厚效应约为90个基点。管理层还表示，若收购收益率在购入后扩大200个基点，每增加5000万美元的收购额即可带来100万美元的净营运收入（NOI）。

租约执行依然是内生增长的核心来源。2026年到期的所有租约均已解决完毕，与美国邮政署（USPS）就2027年租约的商洽工作正在推进中。除附带现有续租选择权的租约外，预计大多数2027年新租约将具备10年租期及每年3%的租金递增条款。

截至季度末，60%的租约包含年度租金递增条款，55%为10年期，加权平均租约期限为6.4年（包含截至2027年已签署及已达成一致的租约）。

季度内及季度后，Postal Realty通过其ATM增发计划募集了1.17亿美元，其中8300万美元的净收益尚未结算。公司还发行了700万美元的运营合伙单元（OP units）用于物业收购。计入未结算远期交易后，总流动性超过3.4亿美元。

管理层业绩指引

管理层以收购规模扩大和借贷成本改善为由，将2026年每股AFFO指引上调至1.42-1.44美元。第四季度经常性资本支出预计为25万至35万美元。

2026年全年的现金管理费用（G&A）预计将达到或略低于现有1150万至1250万美元区间的中值。第三季度中与信用评级、信贷额度重组及收购相关的约25万美元费用预计不会在第四季度再次发生。

公司预计2026年同店现金NOI增长将达到其6%-7%区间的中值，并重申2027年同店现金收入增长6.5%的预期。

管理层表示，未来的收购活动将取决于项目储备的匹配度、融资渠道以及资本成本。鉴于目前资本成本在6%中段左右，若融资条件保持稳定，公司预计其现有储备项目将带来显著的首日增厚效应。

风险与关注重点

• 管理层指出，资本市场波动是第四季度收购时机和规模的不确定性来源。
• 收购回报取决于租金按市价调整机会的把握、运营效率的提升以及合同租金递增条款的执行。不同资产的租约到期时间表以及当前租金与市场租金之间的差距各不相同。
• 利率风险敞口仍是关注焦点。10月，公司购买了2000万美元的远期起息掉期（forward-starting swaps），以降低与即将进行的一笔债务交易相关的风险。
• 一位分析师提及美国邮政署（USPS）出现季度亏损并对严重流动性危机发出预警。管理层对此表示，租约谈判并未发生改变，并指出邮政网络内的租赁支出仅占USPS运营支出的1.5%。
• USPS出售物业可能会带来收购机会，但管理层表示，历史上该机构在打算继续作为主要租户的物业上，并未积极寻求售后回租交易。

分析师问答环节要点

收购收益率与内在增长：管理层表示，当某项资产具备更大的内在增长潜力和更强劲的稳定收益率时，以较低资本化率进行收购是合理的。不过，每笔交易都会进行单独的承销评估。

收购项目来源：约75%的项目属于场外交易。管理层表示，许多卖家持有物业已有数十年之久，其出售动机往往是出于生活重大变故、遗产规划或流动性需求，而非特定的资本化率或回报目标。

人工智能与经营杠杆：Postal Realty正将人工智能应用于数据收集、验证、尽职调查以及收购工作流程中。管理层表示，这些工具有助于公司在不增加人员的情况下，完成接近平时两倍的季度收购量。

股息政策：董事会将目标派息率设定在约70%或更低水平，以保持资产负债表的稳健，并留存现金用于再投资。管理层表示，随着时间推移，现金流的持续增长以及REIT分红要求可能会对股息形成上调动力。

USPS资产出售：管理层表示，若USPS推进物业出售，Postal Realty将随时准备收购其旗下物业，但管理层并未表明该机构目前有此类计划。

财报电话会议完整实录

完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Postal Realty Trust Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Jordan Cooperstein, Senior Vice President of Finance and Capital Markets. Welcome, Jordan.

Jordan Cooperstein

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. On the call today, we have Andrew Spodek, Chief Executive Officer; Steve Bakke, Chief Financial Officer; Jeremy Garber, President; and Matt Brandwein, Chief Accounting Officer.

Please note the company may use forward-looking statements on this conference call, which are statements that are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking. These forward-looking statements are intended to be covered by the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements and will be affected by a variety of risks and factors that are beyond the company's control, including, but not limited to, those contained in the company's latest 10-K and 10-Q and its other regulatory filings with the SEC. The company does not assume and specifically disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Additionally, on this conference call, the company may refer to certain non-GAAP financial and operating measures such as funds from operations, adjusted funds from operations, adjusted EBITDA, annualized adjusted EBITDA, run rate adjusted EBITDA, net debt, pro forma net debt, occupancy, net operating income, same-store cash NOI and same-store cash revenue. You can find definitions and, to the extent available, tabular reconciliations of these and other non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the company's earnings release and supplemental materials available on the company's Investor Relations website.

With that, I will now turn the call over to Andrew Spodek, Chief Executive Officer of Postal Realty Trust.

Andrew Spodek

Thank you, Jordan, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today.

The third quarter marked another strong period of execution for Postal Realty. We delivered 9.1% AFFO per share growth compared to the same quarter last year and raised our guidance for the third time this year to a midpoint of $1.43 per share. We acquired $82 million of postal properties and are increasing our guidance to $185 million to $200 million at a low 7% weighted average cap rate for 2026. And we accomplished all of this while bringing leverage down to 3.5x pro forma net debt to run rate adjusted EBITDA and achieving a BBB rating from Fitch.

To recap our acquisition strategy, we target properties that are day 1 accretive with embedded growth potential. We underwrite not just with the next quarter or year in mind, but looking multiple years to the future. The internal growth opportunity distinguishes us. I want to share a few figures that illustrate what this looks like. We acquired over 800 properties from 2020 to 2022, totaling north of $370 million at a blended cap rate of 7.1%. Since we've owned these properties, we have driven the cash yield approximately 200 basis points higher than where we acquired the properties by marking leases to market, creating operating efficiencies and adding 3% annual escalators in new leases. Every acquisition is different. The timing of lease rolls and the gap between current and market rents will vary. But across this large sample size, the results clearly show the NOI growth that the machine we've built has delivered.

On past earnings calls, we have stated that a better cost of capital will allow us to pursue a broader universe of properties with strong growth potential. Our third quarter results are an excellent illustration of what we can achieve with improved access to well-priced capital. We invested in high-quality postal real estate portfolios and individual assets in a wide range of markets from small towns to larger cities. Notable locations this quarter include a 33,000-square-foot property in Sheepshead Bay, Brooklyn, 25,000 square feet at a facility in St. Paul, Minnesota, and a 2.8-acre property in the Central Business District of Greenwich, Connecticut. Our blended cash cap rate for the quarter was 6.9%, a healthy spread to our cost of capital, and we are excited about the NOI growth we expect to achieve.

Cost of capital dictates the opportunities we pursue. This discipline is reflected in the wider acquisition guidance range this quarter, and it is in line with our history of being highly responsive to the capital markets environment. I've never been more confident in our ability to deliver continued earnings growth given our robust acquisition pipeline, over $340 million of liquidity, including unsettled forwards, and the cost of capital we can deploy accretively.

With that, I will turn it over to Steve.

Steve Bakke

Thank you, Andrew. We've talked in prior quarters about our AFFO growth building blocks. And today, each of those building blocks is contributing meaningfully. First, we are retaining more cash after dividend payments than ever before as a public company, which we are utilizing to either pay down debt or acquire properties. Second, the day 1 accretion we generate from external growth is substantial, coming in at approximately 90 basis points in the third quarter. Lastly, same-store NOI growth is healthy, and we are on track to achieve the midpoint of our 6% to 7% same-store cash NOI growth guidance this year.

In the third quarter, we drove a higher acquisition volume at a slightly lower blended cap rate because of the substantial earnings growth we can derive from feeding our machine. For illustrative purposes, each $50 million of incremental acquisition volume adds $1 million of net operating income in a scenario where we expand acquisition yield by an additional 200 basis points after purchase.

Shifting to third quarter results. Yesterday, we reported AFFO per share of $0.36. This is in line with the second quarter due predominantly to operating expense seasonality and one-time expenses in the quarter. It is a $0.03 per share increase from the same quarter last year as we benefited from predominantly internal growth and acquisition accretion. Note that in last year's third quarter, we earned approximately $0.05 more from one-time lump sum payments.

Turning to our balance sheet. This quarter, we further fortified our capital position even while closing on a record volume of acquisitions. During and subsequent to the quarter, we raised $117 million via the ATM, of which $83 million of net proceeds remain unsettled. Additionally, we issued $7 million of OP units as part of property acquisitions. We added a summary of equity raising activity thus far this year on Page 9 of our supplemental.

As discussed last quarter, we recast and expanded our credit facility in July. As part of the recast, in addition to increasing our capacity by $60 million, we added an investment-grade pricing grid that offers more favorable pricing upon achievement of an investment-grade rating, which we secured in August.

Looking at our balance sheet structure, after equity settled in the third quarter, our net debt to run rate adjusted EBITDA stood at 4.4x. Inclusive of unsettled forward equity raised through October, pro forma net debt to run rate adjusted EBITDA was 3.5x. Even with no significant debt maturities until 2028, we remain focused on adding duration and further staggering our maturities to buttress our financial position. Combined with the U.S. Postal Service's strong tenancy, this gives us significant strategic optionality. Lastly, on the balance sheet front, in late October, we purchased $20 million of forward-starting swaps to begin proactively derisking a portion of our interest rate exposure related to an upcoming debt transaction.

Now on guidance. We are raising our AFFO per share range by $0.01 to $1.42 to $1.44 per share, representing 8.3% growth at the midpoint for the year. The increase is driven by higher acquisition volume and improved borrowing costs. Underlying assumptions include fourth quarter recurring capital expenditures in the range of $250,000 to $350,000. Full year 2026 cash G&A expense is expected to land at or slightly below the midpoint of our $11.5 million to $12.5 million guidance range. Note that in the third quarter, G&A included approximately $250,000 of expenses related to our credit rating, credit facility recast and acquisitions, which won't repeat in the fourth quarter.

Scaling relative to our G&A is one of our top priorities as a company. Our G&A ratio has improved each year since our IPO. And looking forward, we are excited about opportunities to empower the existing team here to cover more ground by applying AI and process automation tools across a variety of accounting, acquisition and operations workflows.

Lastly, our Board of Directors has approved a quarterly dividend of $0.245 per share, representing a 1% increase from last year. Our dividend payout ratio for the third quarter is approximately 68%, and our dividend yield as of yesterday was 4.5%.

With that, I will turn it over to Jeremy.

Jeremy Garber

Thank you, Steve. The third quarter was another quarter of strong operating results. Our portfolio remained 99.8% occupied, and our historical lease retention rate held at 99.6%, a reflection of the stable, predictable cash flows our business generates.

Our leasing activity this quarter further reinforces that stability. With 2026 leases behind us, execution of the 2027 leases with the Postal Service is underway. As I noted last quarter, as in prior years, 2027 new leases will include 3% annual rent escalations and the vast majority will have 10-year terms, excluding leases subject to existing renewal options. Finally, we are in conversation with the Postal Service on 2028 expirations, keeping us on track toward achieving our shared goal of fully executing new leases before the current leases expire.

With this quarter's leasing progress, 60% of our leases include annual rent escalations, 55% of leases contain 10-year terms, and our weighted average lease term stood at 6.4 years at quarter end, inclusive of executed and agreed-upon leases through 2027. Given our visibility into upcoming lease renewals, we are reaffirming our 2027 same-store cash revenue growth of 6.5%.

Now to acquisitions. During the quarter, we acquired 145 properties for $82 million at a weighted average cash cap rate of 6.9%, expanding our footprint by 388,000 square feet. By property type, that included 130,000 square feet from 101 last-mile post offices and 258,000 square feet from 44 flex properties. Through the first 9 months of the year, we acquired 243 properties for approximately $162 million at a weighted average cash cap rate of 7.1%.

With that, we'll end our prepared remarks. Operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from John Kim with BMO Capital Markets.

分析师问答

John Kim

On the acquisitions you made this quarter at 6.9% yield, how much of that was driven by the assets you acquired in Greenwich and Brooklyn? And can you talk about the upside potential that you see, maybe provide a stabilized yield once you get the mark-to-market and the change in escalators?

Andrew Spodek

Thanks for the question, John. So, the cap rate for this quarter was driven not just by the properties that we highlighted in the script, but some other properties that we believe have real embedded growth over the next couple of years. What we illustrated for the first time is that we're trying to show people what the results of not just the day 1 accretion and not just the efficiencies and synergies we're getting from operating, but also what we're gaining from marking these leases to market and getting those 3% escalators. And we're hopeful that what we've been able to do in the past, we'll be able to do in the future.

Operator

Our next question comes from Greg McGinniss with Scotiabank.

Greg McGinniss

The revised acquisition guidance implies just around $30 million of acquisitions in Q4 following a record Q3. Given your liquidity, is this conservatism, lumpy transaction timing or just reflective of the change in your current cost of capital? And then how should we kind of think about that going forward into 2027 as well?

Andrew Spodek

So, Greg, I appreciate the question. It's a combination of all those things and more. From what we've tried to illustrate to everybody over the years and what we've actually been showing is that our cost and our access to capital needs to tie out with our pipeline. And when all those 3 things align, then we're able to achieve what we're able to do this past quarter. Our conservatism or our estimate, which is a wider range of our acquisitions for Q4, is based on not knowing what all those things are going to tie out to for the fourth quarter, especially given the volatility in the market today. And so as we are able to access a good cost of capital and as we're able to buy properties that we believe not just have day 1 accretion, but have some embedded growth, we'll be able to execute on that, and we hope and plan to continue to do so.

Steve Bakke

And, Greg, this is Steve. Just adding to Andrew's point, with our cost of capital today in the mid-6% range, we're fortunate to have a healthy amount of day 1 accretion based on the pipeline of acquisitions we see today. So if our cost of capital holds, we can lean into that, as Andrew mentioned.

Greg McGinniss

And can I follow up on those lower-cap acquisitions from this quarter? Am I hearing you right that you're saying you think there's more internal growth for those lower-cap acquisitions than what you have been acquiring in the 7.1%, 7.2% range? And even -- and I think like the illustrative example in the presentation, which basically saying even if it was the same, greater acquisition volume does lead to greater growth. But curious if you're actually seeing more growth from the lower-cap assets.

Andrew Spodek

So that's a very good question. We look at and acquire a wide range of assets throughout this entire country. And so each asset and each acquisition really speaks for itself. When we see greater embedded growth or greater potential for that embedded growth, then we're able to buy things at a lower cap rate because we see that what the stabilized yield is going to achieve. But every deal really has to speak for itself. And we believe that the acquisitions we bought this quarter are really going to achieve the growth that we are really trying to accomplish.

Operator

Our next question comes from Anthony Paolone with JPMorgan Chase.

Nahom Tesfazghi

You have Nahom on for Tony this morning. Maybe on the portfolio you guys purchased outside of the ROFO. I guess since Postal already manage these properties, how should we think about the embedded mark-to-market or lease term upside compared to traditional assets that you guys buy that you'll bring into your system and you get some expansion on?

Jeremy Garber

Yes. I mean this is a great example of long-term relationships and life events and how those play into our acquisition strategy. So this is a partner that I've been chasing for over 10 years, and made annual visits to them, and he experienced a life event in the past year and came to us and we moved forward with our acquisition team on underwriting these assets. These are great assets, assets we know, very typical of the type of assets we buy, growth profile very similar. There are some assets here in this portfolio that have experienced our new lease form because, as managers of these assets, they get the benefit of the proprietary lease that we have. But yes, this was modeled the way every other acquisition is modeled. As Andrew described, we're trying to achieve day 1 accretion and acquire assets that have embedded growth.

Nahom Tesfazghi

Got it. And maybe as a follow-up, sticking on the transaction market: I think on prior calls, you guys have mentioned that mom-and-pop sellers in the market aren't necessarily solving for a cap rate or an IRR. Could you walk us through maybe what they are actually optimizing for and how that maybe shapes your approach to sourcing and pricing?

Andrew Spodek

It's really a very difficult thing to answer, just given the amount of volume of not just deals, but owners and sellers that we're dealing with, talking to and transacting with on a daily basis. And it doesn't necessarily have to be a significant theme amongst them. If I had to give you some commonality, it is something along the lines of what Jeremy is saying, which is the average owner is in their 60s to 80s. The average owner owned their building more than 50 years. And so life events or the thought of life events or estate planning or liquidity or things like that, that that people consider at that stage of life is probably most of the larger percentage of transactions that come to us.

But you also have to understand that 75% of our deal flow is actually off-market. And so these are people that we've been talking to over long periods of time, like Jeremy was doing or like the transaction in Greenwich. I've been working on that deal for probably 30 years. The Brooklyn transaction is not an owner that I was dealing with for a long time, but came through a relationship, right? These are off-market deals that people are not really explaining to you specifically why they're transacting. But if I had to put a theme on it, I would say life events and age.

Operator

Our next question comes from Matt Roberts with Jefferies.

Matthew Roberts

This is Matt on for John. Curious to hear more on AI usage of the company, especially with regards to acquisitions. And then second, how is the company thinking about future dividend growth now that AFFO growth has accelerated?

Steve Bakke

Great question. This is Steve. As it relates to AI, there are a lot of ways that we're deploying it across the platform. What we found so far is rather than any grand solutions, we can plug AI into existing processes and increase efficiency and allow the team to take on more. As it relates to acquisitions, we have a variety of due diligence items and checklists that we put together where we're gathering data, vetting data, checking data, and AI can help increase the speed and efficiency with which we do that, and help us, like the current quarter, acquire almost double the typical quarter without adding any additional personnel.

As it relates to the dividend, I'll start by saying it's a Board decision, but there are a few overlays that we look at the dividend recommendation through. The first is our capital strength and the credit we get with various constituents on the lending side for having a low payout ratio. 70% or lower feels to us like an appropriate number to keep a strong financial position. The second piece is the retained cash flow. By retaining more cash flow and reinvesting in the business, while the dividend is lower today, the deployment of that cash flow can accelerate our AFFO growth and ultimately lead, we believe, to higher dividends in the future.

So that's really what excites and motivates us is that long-term growth. And the last piece on the dividend is maintaining our REIT compliance. So we have to pay out 90% of our net income. As we have grown our cash flows, we've gotten closer and closer to that point where we are paying out close to the minimum that we can pay out to maintain REIT compliance. So I think that will be an upward pressure on our dividend over time to the extent our cash flow continues to grow.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from John Kim with BMO Capital Markets.

John Kim

Looking at the USPS's latest quarterly results, they had a 6% increase in revenue, but another quarter of losses, $2.5 billion this quarter, and the Postmaster General warned of a severe liquidity crisis, which I know they've used that language or similar language in the past. But I guess my question as it relates to Postal, have negotiations changed at all because of their situation? And do you think the USPS is more likely to sell assets within its own portfolio to the market to help address this?

Andrew Spodek

I appreciate the question. I guess there are a couple of questions within your questions. So negotiations, number one, have not changed. Number two is we have to keep in mind that, like we said before, the leasing of the entire postal network is only 1.5% of the Postal Service's operating expenses. And it is the backbone of their entire delivery and operational business, what they need to deliver to the 170 million delivery points that they do 6 to 7 days a week. That is their business, and that is what they do, and they need these buildings in order to accomplish that.

In terms of them selling assets, I'm obviously biased, but I would argue you're right and that they should sell their assets. I can't tell you that they're actually going to do it or this is going to motivate them. But if it does, we are sitting here ready, willing and able to buy them. So I guess time will tell. But I think the Postal Service is actually more focused on the operations and trying to serve the American people the way that they always have.

John Kim

Can you remind USPS typically sell annually?

Andrew Spodek

I'm sorry, you broke up. I didn't hear that. Can you say that again?

John Kim

Can you remind us their track record of dispositions or selling assets?

Andrew Spodek

So they don't really have much of a track record. In the past, they did sell properties that -- and they did do a sale-leaseback on a portion of the property, but they didn't typically dispose of properties that they wanted to maintain a tenancy in a significant portion of the property. This is not something that they historically did on a proactive basis.

Operator

We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the floor back over to Andrew Spodek for closing comments.

Andrew Spodek

We've made tremendous progress year-to-date, growing this highly scalable platform, backed by a growing rent stream from a tenant who pays 100% of the rent, 100% of the time. I've never been more confident in our ability to consolidate the postal real estate market, given our access to capital, robust pipeline and the strength of our team. We look forward to meeting at upcoming conferences and updating you on our progress next quarter. Thank you again for joining us today.

Operator

We've reached the end of today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.