费罗格罗夫 (GSM) 2026年第三季度业绩电话会议：1亿美元成本计划

核心要点

• 2026年第三季度营收环比下降2%至3.70亿美元，总出货量下降3%至18.3万吨。营收较2025年第三季度增长19%。
• 调整后EBITDA为负200万美元，而2026年第二季度为正1300万美元。管理层将近1900万美元的压力归因于能源成本上升，并估计如果不考虑这一影响，调整后EBITDA约为1600万美元。
• 在3200万美元营运资金释放的支持下，Ferroglobe产生经营活动现金流2600万美元，自由现金流600万美元。
• 管理层推出了一项降本计划，全面实施后预计每年增加约1亿美元（上下浮动15%）的EBITDA。该计划包括关闭五座工厂、将产能利用率从不足60%提升至80%左右，以及裁员约20%。
• 该公司在本季度开始商业化出货钼铁，并预计第四季度将增加出货量，同时进行钒铁和铬铁的首次商业化出货。
• 管理层预计，由于能源成本以及欧洲硅铁市场的疲软，第四季度仍将充满挑战，不过贸易保护措施以及预计2027年的钢铁需求增长可能会对核心市场形成支撑。

关键财务数据

业务与运营表现

工业硅

营收为1.02亿美元。销量环比下降6%至3.8万吨，主要是由于季节性因素影响，但比2025年第三季度高出14%。平均售价上涨3%，达到每吨约2669美元。

该板块调整后EBITDA从第二季度的负300万美元微幅改善至负200万美元。由于北美能源和电极价格上涨，每吨成本增加了3%。

本季度，工业硅指数价格在美国上涨了10%，在欧洲上涨了6%。管理层表示，随着公司继续推进2027年的合同谈判，客户兴趣正持续上升。

硅基合金

营收降至1.17亿美元，因销量环比下降6%至5.9万吨。实际实现价格大致持平，为每吨1973美元。

调整后EBITDA从第二季度的正1500万美元（其中包括西班牙500万美元的诉讼收益）降至负200万美元。欧洲较高的能源成本和较弱的固定成本摊薄是导致下降的主因。

管理层表示，公司避免了以无利可图的价格在欧洲增加销量。库存过剩和进口高企继续施压市场，欧洲硅铁指数今年迄今已下跌16%。

锰基合金

营收增加至1.14亿美元。销量环比增长1%至8.6万吨，同时平均售价上涨5%至每吨1330美元。

调整后EBITDA为1100万美元，而第二季度为1300万美元。每吨成本的增加有85%来自能源成本（主要是在西班牙）。

关键材料与贸易保护

Ferroglobe提前完成了原定于年末的目标，开始商业化出货钼铁。公司还计划在确定更广泛的市场推广计划前，对钒铁、低碳铬铁和硼铁进行工业规模验证。

该公司预计将于11月提交最终的美国政府关键材料提案，谈判预计将于2027年初开始，并在第一季度末前结束。

在欧洲，欧盟委员会于9月1日启动了针对中国工业硅进口的中期反倾销复审，并于10月23日下令进行进口登记。管理层表示，进口登记可能会遏制囤货，并允许追溯实施关税措施。在美国，在涉及澳大利亚和挪威的案件作出最终裁定后，工业硅指数上涨了10%。

管理层展望

• 管理层预计，降本计划全面实施后，每年将为EBITDA增加约1亿美元（上下浮动15%）。
• 重组目标是将产能利用率从目前的不到60%提升至80%左右，并在总部及运营部门裁员约20%。
• 公司的目标是在18个月内减少3000万至4000万美元的营运资金，并降低未来的资本支出。扣除目标营运资金减少额后，实施成本预计总计为4000万至6000万美元。
• 管理层预计第四季度营运资金不会发生重大变化，并预计资本支出将较第三季度大幅下降。
• 由于能源成本和欧洲硅铁市场的疲软，预计第四季度仍将充满挑战。
• Ferroglobe正在申请敲定重启其委内瑞拉业务相关协议所需的OFAC许可证。管理层表示该许可证可能很快获批，但可靠的电力供应仍是一项关键的前提条件。

风险与关注领域

• 高企的能源成本（尤其是西班牙）使第三季度调整后EBITDA减少了近1900万美元，预计第四季度仍将是一个挑战。
• 由于库存过剩和进口高企，欧洲硅铁价格依然承压。
• 重组需要在适用情况下与员工代表进行协商，且在扣除目标营运资金减少额后，预计实施成本为4000万至6000万美元。
• 委内瑞拉业务的重启取决于取得OFAC许可证以及确保可靠的电力供应。
• 新型关键材料的商业出货量在完成工业规模生产验证前仍存在不确定性。
• 欧洲潜在的追溯性反倾销措施尚未做出裁决。

分析师问答亮点

管理层表示，计划关闭五座工厂的项目旨在将生产集中在最具竞争力的工厂，并将产能利用率提升至80%左右。Ferroglobe已宣布封存其位于南非的Emalahleni和Polokwane工厂，但尚未公布其他受影响的设施，因为仍需与利益相关者进行协商。

关于委内瑞拉业务，管理层表示已开始讨论以支持加速重启。电力可靠性是主要的运营问题，而在敲定任何协议之前，必须获得OFAC许可证。

在关键材料方面，Ferroglobe已恢复生产钼铁，并正在进行或计划进行钒铁、低碳铬铁和硼铁的试生产。管理层表示，在完成工业规模验证之前，提供第四季度或2027年的出货量预期还为时过早。

关于欧洲的贸易行动，管理层解释称，对中国工业硅进口进行登记可能会防止在做出决定前提前囤货，并为追溯征税创造条件。

业绩电话会议完整文字记录

完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Ferroglobe's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call may be recorded.

I would now like to turn the call over to Alex Rotonen, Ferroglobe's Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin.

Alex Rotonen

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Ferroglobe's third quarter 2026 conference call. Joining me today are Marco Levi, our Chief Executive Officer; and Beatriz Garcia-Cos, our Chief Financial Officer.

Before we get started with some prepared remarks, I'm going to read a brief statement. Please turn to Slide 2 at this time. Statements made by management during this conference call that are forward-looking are based on current expectations. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those forward-looking statements can be found in Ferroglobe's most recent SEC filings and the exhibits to those filings, which are available at ferroglobe.com.

In addition, this discussion includes references to EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted gross debt, adjusted net debt and adjusted diluted earnings per share, among other non-IFRS measures. Reconciliations of non-IFRS measures may be found in our most recent SEC filings.

We'll be participating in the Stephens Annual Investment Conference in Nashville on November 17. We hope to see you there.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Marco.

Marco Levi

Thank you, Alex, and thank you all for joining us today. We appreciate your continued interest in Ferroglobe.

Our third quarter results continued to reflect challenges in our silicon metal and silicon-based alloy segments as a result of predatory import prices and external factors affecting costs. Despite these adverse conditions, we generated positive free cash flow.

Total shipments declined 3% quarter-over-quarter to 183,000 tons as silicon metal and silicon-based alloys volumes declined 6%, partially offset by a 1% increase in manganese-based alloys. As a result, revenue declined 2% from the second quarter to $370 million.

Adjusted EBITDA was negative $2 million compared with positive $13 million in the second quarter. The decline was due to extraordinary energy costs, mainly in Spain, associated with the Middle East conflict and to a lesser degree, regulatory pricing in the ferrosilicon segment. Excluding the $18.5 million impact from high energy prices, the adjusted EBITDA would have been approximately $16 million in the third quarter. Beatriz will provide more detailed comments in her section.

Next slide, please. Since the last call, we have made tangible progress on the following strategic priorities: lowering and rightsizing our cost structure, expanding our critical materials platform, pursuing the restart of Venezuela, and strengthening our core business through trade protection.

Let me start with rightsizing our footprint and cost structure. Last month, we initiated an aggressive cost reduction program to increase our capacity utilization, enhance our operating efficiency and strengthen our competitive position. Once fully implemented, we expect the cost reduction program to enhance our annual EBITDA by approximately $100 million, plus or minus 15%.

Our plans to tackle the difficult business environment and increase profitability include the following. First, we are consolidating our operations to our most cost competitive plants, enabled by our flexible footprint. Our goal is to boost capacity utilization to 80%, up from less than 60% today.

To accomplish this, we plan to close 5 plants around the globe with minimal impact on our sales volumes or our ability to expand into critical materials. We will work through these changes together with our employee representatives as required. Some of these operations might be switched to critical materials.

At the same time, we are restarting Selma to produce ferroalloys. As for the nonstrategic plans, we are exploring the best way to monetize them, whether through outright divestitures or alternative use as data centers.

Second, we plan to reduce our corporate overhead primarily through headcount reductions. Overall, we expect to reduce our corporate and operations workforce by approximately 20% once the process is complete, subject to consultation with employee representatives where required.

These are difficult decisions, but necessary steps to align our cost structure with the current market conditions and position the business for improved profitability. These actions will lower Ferroglobe's fixed cost per ton, target working capital reduction of $30 million, $40 million, and decrease future CapEx, creating more streamlined organization positioned to generate stronger cash flow and EBITDA.

We have already begun this process by announcing the mothballing of our South African plants in Emalahleni and Polokwane due to lack of demand. The upfront cost of implementing this transformation plan is expected to be in the range of $40 million to $60 million, net of targeted working capital reduction over an 18-month period.

Moving to critical materials. Our expansion is progressing ahead of schedule. During the third quarter, we began shipment of ferromolybdenum to commercial customers, well ahead of our original year-end target. This demonstrates our ability to produce critical ferroalloys in Monzon, Spain with minimal capital investment. We expect additional ferromolybdenum shipments in the fourth quarter as well as our first commercial shipments of other critical ferroalloys such as ferrovanadium and ferrochromium.

As part of the critical material expansion, we continue our discussion with the U.S. Department of War. These discussions to build the domestic supply of certain critical materials continue to progress on schedule. Our September 16 summary proposal included magnesium and manganese and 7 additional critical materials, and we expect to present our final proposal this month in November. The negotiations should begin in early 2027 and conclude before the end of the first quarter.

As for Venezuela, we continue to pursue the license from the Office of Foreign Assets Control, or OFAC, required to finalize any agreements. Concurrently, we have begun initial discussions in Venezuela to prepare for an expedited restart of our operations.

On our effort to protect the business, trade measures continue to gain momentum. On September 1, the European Commission initiated an interim antidumping review into imports of Chinese silicon metal and October 23, the Commission announced the registration of all Chinese silicon metal imports. This simply means that each import will be recorded and monitored in detail for future review.

This decision is important because it indicates how seriously the European Commission takes the matter and allows potential duties to be applied retroactively. The market has already responded with the European Silicon metal index rising 7% since the announcement of this review.

In the United States, the ITC's final determination in the silicon metal case against Australia and Norway was announced on August 3. Subsequently, the U.S. index rose 10% following the announcement.

Finally, Coreshell has made strong progress in the third quarter. They received a $50 million award from the U.S. Department of Energy to build the first U.S. gigafactory dedicated to 100% graphite-free silicon anode batteries. This award comes at a great moment in Coreshell's growth as they have now signed multiple military customers in the drone and autonomous vehicle space. Coreshell continues to work with multiple OEMs to further validate the silicon anode technology on a greater scale.

Next slide, please. I'll update on our segments, starting with silicon metal on Slide 5. We are seeing improvement in the silicon metal segment with index prices up 10% in U.S. and 6% in Europe in the third quarter, reflecting a positive response to trade actions on both sides of the Atlantic. Our realized prices improved 3% over the second quarter.

Our silicon metal volumes declined 6% to 38,000 tons with U.S. sales down 8% and new sales down 3%. The decline was driven mainly by seasonality with volumes up 14% over Q3 2025. Importantly, we are seeing increased customer interest, an encouraging sign as we continue our 2027 contract negotiations.

Next slide, please. Silicon-based alloy volumes remained significantly above last year's level, although they declined 6% in the third quarter compared to the second quarter to 59,000 tons. Index prices were down 2% in Europe and 1% in the U.S., while our realized prices were essentially flat.

Our European volumes declined substantially, reflecting our disciplined decision not to pursue incremental volumes at unprofitable prices. Excess inventory and elevated import volumes continue to weigh on price recovery, particularly in the European market where the ferrosilicon index is down 16% year-to-date. The main culprits are Malaysia, Bhutan, Azerbaijan, India and Angola. European Commission's annual review of the ferroalloy safeguards scheduled for later this month can potentially bring meaningful improvement to the alloys market in 2027.

Next slide, please. Manganese-based alloys remain our most consistent segment. Volumes remained strong, increasing 1% to 86,000 tons. While index prices were down approximately 1% in the quarter, our realized prices increased 5%. The market outlook remains positive, supported by firm pricing and healthy volumes.

Looking ahead, both the silicon-based alloys and manganese-based alloy segments are expected to benefit from improving steel demand. In its October short-range outlook, the World Steel Association forecast 2027 finished steel demand growth of 3% in Europe and 2% in North America. Manufacturing activity supports this view with September PMI reaching 52.9 in the Eurozone, a 52-month high, and 55.9 in the U.S. Aluminum production is expected to grow by 2% in the U.S. and 3% in Europe.

I would now like to turn the call over to Beatriz Garcia-Cos, our Chief Financial Officer, to review the financial results in more detail. Beatriz?

Beatriz García-Cos Muntañola

Thank you, Marco. Please turn to Slide 9 for a review of the third quarter income statement. Total third quarter sales declined 2% from the prior quarter to $370 million, driven by a 3% decline in total volumes. Lower volumes in silicon metal and silicon-based alloys were partially offset by higher realized prices in silicon metal and manganese-based alloys. Compared with the third quarter of 2025, sales increased 19%.

Adjusted EBITDA was negative $2 million compared with a positive $13 million in the prior quarter. As a reminder, second quarter adjusted EBITDA includes a $5 million benefit from litigation in Spain. Higher energy costs reduced adjusted EBITDA by nearly $19 million in the quarter. Excluding these items, the adjusted EBITDA would have been $16 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin was negative 0.6% compared with a positive 3.5% in the second quarter.

Next slide, please. Silicon metal revenue was $102 million in the third quarter, a 6% decline in volume, was partially offset by a 3% increase in average selling price to approximately $2,669 per ton, up from $2,592 per ton in the second quarter. Cost per ton increased by 3% due to higher energy and electrode prices in North America.

Adjusted EBITDA was negative $2 million, a slight improvement compared with negative $3 million in the prior quarter. Silicon-based alloys revenue declined to $117 million, driven by a 6% sequential decline in volumes to 59,000 tons. Realized prices were essentially flat at $1,973 per ton.

Adjusted EBITDA for the segment was negative $2 million, down from positive $15 million in the second quarter, which includes the $5 million litigation benefit in Spain. Volume and price declines explained approximately $2 million of the decline, with the remaining EBITDA decline reflecting higher energy costs and lower fixed cost absorption in Europe.

Next slide, please. Manganese-based alloys revenue increased to $114 million as volume increased 1% to 86,000 tons, and average selling price improved 5% to $1,330 per ton. Higher energy costs primarily in Spain were the main driver of increased cost per ton. Overall, energy accounts for 85% of the cost increase. Adjusted EBITDA was $11 million compared with $13 million in the prior quarter.

Next slide, please. For the third quarter, cash flow from operations was $26 million, driven by a $32 million release of working capital. This is well ahead of the approximately $50 million release we target for the second half of the year on our last call. We don't expect material changes in working capital in the fourth quarter.

For those less familiar, the PPA mark-to-market of $77 million is related to our energy contracts, which are excluded from adjusted EBITDA due to the volatility and noncash impact. CapEx was $20 million, up from $17 million in the second quarter due to the timing of the actual payments for our charcoal plant in Spain. We expect CapEx to decline significantly in the fourth quarter.

Free cash flow was positive $6 million compared with $20 million in the prior quarter.

Next slide, please. We paid our quarterly dividend of $0.015 per share on September 29. Our next dividend of $0.015 per share is scheduled for December 30, payable to shareholders on record as of December 22.

We ended the quarter with approximately $93 million in cash, unchanged from the second quarter. Adjusted gross debt was $135 million and net debt increased slightly to $42 million. We continue to maintain a solid balance sheet, which gives us the flexibility to execute the cost reduction program and support our critical materials expansion.

At this time, I'll turn the call back to Marco.

Marco Levi

Thank you, Beatriz. Before opening the call for Q&A, I'd like to share the key takeaways from today's presentation on Slide 15. While our third quarter earnings results are disappointing, we are taking decisive action to improve profitability. The cost reduction program will consolidate production at our most competitive plant, increase capacity utilization to approximately 80%, and streamline the organization. Once fully implemented, we expect to add $100 million to our annual EBITDA, plus or minus 15%.

While we expect the fourth quarter to remain challenging due to energy costs and weak ferrosilicon market in Europe, these actions are within our control and can deliver long-term benefits regardless of market conditions. At the same time, the fundamentals of our core markets are improving. Steel demand is forecast to grow next year, which supports our ferroalloy businesses.

Trade protection is working. Silicon metal index prices rose 10% in the U.S. and 6% in Europe in the third quarter. And the European investigation into Chinese silicon metal is now underway.

Our strategic direction is very clear: build a leading Western critical materials platform. We completed our first shipments in the third quarter and additional shipments are expected in the fourth quarter. We have demonstrated that our existing furnaces can produce these critical materials quickly and with minimal capital investment.

Our discussions on critical materials with the U.S. government continue to advance and Coreshell's $50 million Department of Energy award gives us further confidence in our investment in silicon battery technology.

Operator, we are ready for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We will now take our first question from the line of Nick Giles from B. Riley Securities.

分析师问答

Henry Hearle

This is Henry Hearle on for Nick. I first wanted to ask, are the 5 plant closures view that European demand does not fully recover? Or do they more assume that Venezuela backfills those tons?

Marco Levi

Well, we -- as you know, we have quite a broad asset footprint, and we are looking at different combinations to increase our asset utilization at -- to 80% from an average of 60%. We forecast demand growing better at higher rate in U.S. in the next few years. And as a consequence, we are talking about restarting Venezuela and restarting Selma in the United States.

We have disclosed in my speech the decision on South African plants. We are not going to disclose anything else about the additional assets as we need to engage other stakeholders and employee representatives before disclosing our plan in a more [indiscernible].

Henry Hearle

Got it. Understood, Marco. And then also, at this time, are you able to provide any more details on the status of the Venezuela permit?

Marco Levi

Yes. We should get the license anytime soon. At the same time, we have started our discussions in Venezuela to restart the plant. The main topic is electricity supply and reliable electricity supply. As you know, we can easily ramp up and down our furnaces. We have this flexibility running electrical furnaces, but we need electricity reliability. The license is required to close any kind of negotiation.

Henry Hearle

Understood. And then looking at the critical materials business, how do you expect shipments to ramp from 3Q to 4Q? And how many other materials might be involved in those shipments?

Marco Levi

Yes. Well, in this quarter, we are producing again ferromolybdenum. We re-run productions of ferrovanadium and ferrochrome low carbon. We seem to be able also to run trials on ferroboron.

So for these 4 products, we need validation at industrial scale production, meaning we have produced ferromolybdenum industrially, but not the other 3 products that I mentioned. So it is rather premature to talk about volumes for the quarter and 2027. Our objective is to validate our production capabilities this quarter, and then we will plan for market introduction.

Henry Hearle

Got it. And then last one for me. It looks like that the EU could possibly make the antidumping duties on China retroactive. Could you provide any more color on that or what you're hearing?

Marco Levi

Yes. I mean we have put a lot of pressure because this has been a never-ending saga. I want to remind you that we asked for safeguards on silicon metal and the fact that safeguards were not applied to silicon metal has caused a disaster in terms of results of safeguards for ferrosilicon.

Now we have changed our approach. We are going for antidumping review against China. That interim review was officially started on September 1. And on October 23, EU had announced monitoring of imports. What it means is that the Union is monitoring the imports of silicon metal outside of China via all the 27 EU countries.

And monitoring the import has a couple of effects. One, you prevent stockpiling materials -- exported materials from China before the European Union decide on the new measures. And second, the registration basically allows the commission to eventually decide to apply measures retroactively. So this is a good result. But again, we are not where we want to be.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] There are no further questions at this time. I would like to hand back over to Marco Levi for closing remarks.

Marco Levi

Thank you, Sandra, and thank you all. In a nutshell, we are executing on what we can control, and we look forward to updating you on our progress during the next call. Thank you again for your participation, and have a great day.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.