Advantage Solutions (ADV) 2026财年第三季度业绩电话会议：2500万美元重组计划

Advantage Solutions（Nasdaq: ADV）公布 2026 年第三季度营收实现持续增长，但品牌服务（Branded Services）业绩较弱以及计划中的人工投资压制了盈利能力。管理层重申了全年业绩指引，并宣布了一项重组计划，旨在实现约 2500 万美元的年化净节省。

核心要点

• 扣除剥离业务后，备考净营收同比增长 1% 至 7.82 亿美元，实现连续第四个季度增长。调整后 EBITDA 下降 12% 至 8500 万美元。
• 在强劲需求和活动量增加的推动下，体验服务（Experiential Services）营收增长 12% 至 3.06 亿美元。由于人工投资压制了利润率，调整后 EBITDA 仅增长 0.3% 至 3500 万美元。
• 由于客户流失及不利的业务组合，品牌服务营收下降 11% 至 2.25 亿美元，调整后 EBITDA 下降 55% 至 1800 万美元。
• 零售商服务（Retailer Services）营收增长 1% 至 2.51 亿美元，调整后 EBITDA 增长 43% 至 3200 万美元。扣除关税退税收益后，调整后 EBITDA 增幅仍超过 30%。
• Advantage Solutions 宣布了重组举措，目标是从 2026 年第四季度开始，在扣除再投资后实现约 2500 万美元的年化净节省。随着时间推移，管理层计划再额外实现至少 500 万美元的净节省。
• 公司重申了全年业绩指引。管理层预计营收增长将在持平至低个位数区间，调整后 EBITDA 预计在持平至中个位数下降区间。

关键财务数据

今年迄今，营收增长 3%，调整后 EBITDA 下降 3%。在第三季度，业务剥离造成了约 500 万美元的营收逆风和 300 万美元的调整后 EBITDA 逆风。

业务与运营表现

体验服务

体验服务仍是增长最强劲的业务。日均活动场次增长超过 13%，管理层表示需求信号健康，并看到了进一步扩大活动量的机会。

薪酬、招聘和人员配置方面的投资制约了利润增长。定价举措在当季开始见效，管理层预计未来将对利润率提供更有力的支撑。

品牌服务

品牌服务继续面临客户流失、区域竞争、客户转向自营内包以及小型客户活动减少的压力。高利润率的总部销售和代理业务下滑也损害了业务组合。

零售商品营销项目和供应链即服务（Supply Chain as a Service）是增长亮点。公司表示，其供应链网络包含 100 多个全渠道履约中心及多家货运合作伙伴。对于最近签约的一家客户，Advantage Solutions 将其零售罚款降低了 83%，运输时间缩短了 32%。

新的组织架构将把运营划分为四个大区，实行大区盈亏负责制。管理层表示，最接近客户和消费者的两层组织架构不会受到此次重组的影响。

零售商服务

零售商服务得益于项目活动、定价提升、新业务赢单以及 Daymon 自有品牌业务的稳健表现。该部门还收到了一笔与为零售客户代采购货物相关的微薄关税退税，但管理层表示大部分符合条件的退税已收悉。

公司将继续专注于人员配置匹配、现货率执行，以及向杂货以外的客户领域拓展。

技术与成本结构

Advantage Solutions 在判定预期的财务和运营效益不再能弥补成本和转型风险后，暂停了 Workday 系统的部署实施。公司计划继续使用现有的资本与人力资源平台，同时推进有针对性的升级和基于人工智能的工作流改进。

更广泛的重组包括扁平化组织层级、整合支持部门、减少供应商和第三方支出、优化房地产配置以及降低可裁减成本。相关重组和改组费用预计总计为 700 万至 1000 万美元，其中大部分发生在 2026 年第四季度，部分将延续至 2027 年。

管理层业绩指引

管理层重申了以下 2026 全年业绩展望：

• 营收增长在持平至低个位数之间。
• 调整后 EBITDA 范围在持平至中个位数下降之间。
• 调整后无杠杆自由现金流为 2.5 亿至 2.75 亿美元。
• 扣除相关债务融资成本前的净自由现金流相当于 EBITDA 的 25%。
• 资本支出为 4000 万至 4500 万美元，因暂停部署 Workday 而有所缩减。

对于 2027 年，管理层目前预计资本支出为 3500 万至 4000 万美元。

管理层预计，在 2026 年第四季度和全年，体验服务都将实现两位数的营收和调整后 EBITDA 增长，同时伴随利润率扩张。品牌服务预计在第四季度环比改善，并在 2027 年走向营收和利润率企稳。由于第四季度面临更高的对比基数，零售商服务全年的营收和调整后 EBITDA 预计将大致持平。

风险与关注领域

• 品牌服务继续面临客户流失、自营内包、区域竞争以及脱离高利润率业务的不利转变。
• 管理层表示，能源价格上涨和利率上升增加了消费者支出方面的增量不确定性。
• 零售项目的推进时点以及人员配置与项目中标进度的匹配能力，可能会导致各季度之间的营收出现跨期偏移。
• 短期内的薪酬、招聘和人员配置投资正在给体验服务的利润率带来压力。
• 重组及 Workday 相关的现金支出将影响列报的现金流，尽管管理层预计更低的重组费用和资本支出将支持 2027 年实现更强劲的自由现金流。
• 净杠杆率仍处于约 4.6 倍的高位，公司计划将现金和自由现金流主要用于偿还债务。

分析师问答环节要点

管理层表示，更健康的品牌服务业务将融合更强的区域权责制、改进的大客户支持、零售商品营销增长以及供应链即服务的持续扩展。公司预计企稳将于 2027 年开始。

公布的节省目标已扣除计划中的再投资，包括新增的直接面向客户的岗位和部分领导人才。因此，管理层预计在计入这些投资后，所带来的成本节省仍将改善整体成本结构。

关于自由现金流，管理层预计较低的资本支出和减少的重组费用将推动 2027 年的业绩改善。营运资金管理纪律依然是重点：第三季度的应收账款周转天数（DSO）为 60 天，公司正按计划推进，力争在年底前降至约 55 天。

管理层表示，第四季度的最终业绩仍受到多项不确定因素的影响，包括品牌服务重组的推进速度、体验服务强劲但需要高投入的增长、零售商服务项目的落地时机以及该部门面临的较难同比基数。

业绩电话会议完整文字记录

完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Advantage Solutions Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

I will now hand the conference over to the Advantage Solutions team.

Unknown Executive

Welcome to Advantage Solutions Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Dave Peacock, Chief Executive Officer; and Chris Growe, Chief Financial Officer, are on the call today. Dave and Chris will provide their prepared remarks, after which we will open the call for a question-and-answer session.

During this call, management may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Actual outcomes and results could differ materially due to several factors, including those described more fully in the company's annual report on Form 10-K filed with the SEC. All forward-looking statements are qualified in their entirety by such factors.

Our remarks today include certain non-GAAP financial measures, which are reconciled to the most comparable GAAP measure in our earnings release. As a reminder, unless otherwise stated, the financial results discussed today will be from continuing operations and revenues will exclude reimbursable expenses.

And now I would like to turn the call over to Chief Executive Officer, Dave Peacock.

David Peacock

Thanks, operator. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. I want to begin by thanking our teammates for their hard work over the past several years. Our people continue to adapt to a challenging environment, serve our clients and customers with dedication and drive strong execution. I'm grateful for their commitment. As a services business, our people are the engine that drives our company.

On a pro forma basis, excluding divestitures, third quarter net revenues of $782 million increased 1% year-over-year, representing our fourth consecutive quarter of growth. Adjusted EBITDA was $85 million, down 12%, reflecting continued planned investment in the business and ongoing headwinds in Branded Services.

Our third quarter included some encouraging developments in a dynamic market. Experiential Services delivered another strong quarter with revenue up over 11%, driven by strong execution and global growth. And Retailer Services returned to both revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth. While this was partially offset by a soft performance across Branded Services, we continue to see solid growth in our retail merchandising and supply chain businesses within this segment. Overall, our year-to-date performance is largely in line with the outlook we gave at the beginning of the year, with revenue up 3% and adjusted EBITDA down 3%.

Our segment results reflect a continuation of the trends we have seen so far this year, including a particularly strong performance in our labor-related businesses. Experiential Services delivered another strong quarter. Demand signals remain exceptionally healthy. We continue to see opportunities to expand event volumes, and our team sustained high levels of execution with over 13% growth in events per day.

Adjusted EBITDA growth was modest against a tough comparison and given our decision to invest in wages, recruiting and staffing to meet anticipated demand and sustain superior service levels. We expect this margin pressure to be temporary and believe these investments are critical to capturing the significant long-term opportunity in this segment. On that point, pricing actions began to take effect during the quarter and should increasingly offset our labor investments. Looking forward, we expect double-digit revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth along with margin expansion in both the fourth quarter and the full year.

Retailer Services delivered continued revenue growth given strong project demand. Our Daymon private brand business also outperformed expectations as our team helps retailers meet the trend toward value and strong private brand portfolios. Our merchandising teams executed well with in-stock performance progressing well along with other key operating measures. In addition, we continue to make progress pursuing non-grocery customers.

Results benefited from a small tariff refund in the quarter, but underlying trends were strong. Our priorities remain unchanged. Staffing alignment and consistency, superior execution and better operating discipline are all areas of focus as we invest in our capabilities.

In Branded Services, performance has not met our expectations, and we are taking action to change the trajectory of this business. While we are seeing strong growth in our business from our top clients, we continue to feel the effects of client losses and some ongoing pullback in smaller clients due to regional competition and in-sourcing. However, our project work in branded retail was a bright spot and grew during the quarter. We're optimistic about an improving project pipeline in this business.

In addition, we are seeing accelerating growth in our Supply Chain as a Service business, and we are optimistic about its prospects. CPG brands continue to cite growing complexity in the route their products take to market, and our offering is well positioned to help address that complexity. We have assembled a network of more than 100 omnichannel fulfillment centers and multiple freight partnerships that supports clients across business-to-business, direct-to-consumer and e-commerce channels and can provide end-to-end logistics services, including last-mile delivery.

This business continues to gain traction. With one client we recently onboarded, we are able to reduce retail chargebacks by 83% and time in transit by 32%. This business is on track to grow meaningfully in 2026, and we expect to continue growth in 2027. Looking ahead, we expect the Branded Services performance to improve sequentially in the fourth quarter, and we still expect the segment to move towards stabilization in 2027.

To better service our customers long term, today, we are announcing a new restructuring plan. Our technology and AI investments have given us better tools to deliver on customer expectations, simplify our organizational structure and operate more effectively and efficiently. While these changes are improving our service levels, they have also enabled us to streamline our cost structure to match the shape and trajectory of our business.

Our traditionally lower-margin labor services continue to show durable demand and growth as packaged goods producers and retailers find increasing value in our team's ability to both enable growth at retail and activate shoppers. Conversely, some of our formerly higher-margin network businesses where we serve as an intermediary between parties for sales or marketing services are seeing persistent cyclical declines. This mix shift is a result of a long-term change in demand and as such, the cost structure and processes that supported our historical mix are no longer properly aligned with the businesses we have today. As a result, we are undertaking a restructuring of the organization, which is a critical second phase of transformation of our business.

Leveraging previous investments, we are evolving our organization to better align with customer needs and improve our service levels. We have identified and begun implementing restructuring actions designed to reduce layers and bureaucracy and bring our cost structure in line with current business opportunities. The resulting structure is being set in motion in the fourth quarter, will continue into 2027 and is estimated to yield approximately $25 million of annualized savings, net of investment, with plans for over $5 million in additional net savings over time.

Importantly, the 2 layers of our organization closest to clients and customers are not affected by these actions, and we do not expect any disruption to how we serve them. In fact, we are growing our employee head count and enhancing our talent levels throughout 2026 across client-facing roles.

As an organization, we have been focused on transformation to improve our client service and employee experience, especially with our IT investments and AI use cases. As we move toward the end of our IT platform overhaul, we have remained disciplined in consistently evaluating the long-term return on each investment.

Every investment should accomplish 1 of 2 objectives. It should either enhance the level of service we can provide our customers or improve the experience our teammates have working at Advantage. Chris will discuss more about our specific technology platforms. Our current restructuring will create a more efficient organization that delivers better client service, reduces friction for our teammates and more effectively converts revenue growth into margin expansion, earnings growth and cash generation.

Our top 25 clients are collectively showing strong growth. However, we have opportunities to better support brands in local markets or regions. Our new structure addresses this by transitioning to 4 regions and implementing P&L ownership for our regional leaders. We are doing this while bolstering our teams serving larger national accounts, making us the only agency with both a strong national and regional footprint and the only true national sales and execution agency for fresh brands at retail. Fresh categories are growing, and we're positioned to capitalize on this with our tenured and talented team.

Turning to the macro environment. Our business is increasingly concentrated around leading food retailers that continue to grow and take market share. Our labor and execution services support growth for these best-in-class retailers, providing resilience in our revenue outlook. As we have done in the past, we conducted surveys of our customers in the third quarter to assess the operating environment. We leverage this critical data to help both our manufacturing clients and retail customers grow and take market share.

While affordability continues to dominate the narrative in the industry, our surveys show that the shopping experience is becoming a critical differentiator at retail. Ease of shopping ranks first as a determining factor of retailer choice, ahead of price and promotions. This supports our shelf space planning and reset business as retailers look to dynamically assort their shelves to reduce out of stocks and make the shopping experience easier.

Understanding the mission behind a shopper's trip and delivering the experience they expect is critical to becoming a retailer or brand of choice. Our Experiential Services, which range from sampling to assisted selling to brand activation, enable us to help retailers capitalize on this trend as shoppers look to discover new products when they shop in brick-and-mortar stores. The key takeaway from these surveys is that retailers and manufacturers are working to serve these discerning shoppers and are focusing more on the shopping experience than ever before and Advantage is there to serve them in this journey.

Consumers also continue to be value-seeking, and our Daymon private brand business leads representation of contract manufacturers in this segment of the market. We partner closely with retailers to help them tailor their private brand programs and can bring scale and speed to innovation with more than 35,000 global contract manufacturing relationships.

Turning to our outlook. We are reiterating our full year revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance. The business is broadly performing in line with our prior expectations, but uncertainty has increased from the impact of rising energy prices and interest rates on consumer spending. We believe our diversified portfolio allows us to successfully navigate this challenging environment.

In conclusion, we are encouraged by trends in Experiential Services and Retailer Services, and we understand the work required in Branded Services to improve our service levels and performance. We believe the actions underway will create a more agile and more durable Advantage.

I will now turn it over to Chris for more detail on our financial performance.

Christopher Growe

Thank you, Dave, and welcome to everyone joining us today. I will review our third quarter performance by segment, discuss our cash flow and capital structure and provide additional detail on our outlook. Unless otherwise noted, the year-over-year comparisons I will discuss are on a pro forma basis, excluding divestitures.

In the third quarter, businesses we have divested represented a year-over-year headwind of approximately $5 million to revenues and approximately $3 million to adjusted EBITDA. And for 2026, we still expect divestitures to represent a year-over-year headwind of approximately $20 million to revenues and over $10 million to adjusted EBITDA.

Starting with Experiential Services, we generated $306 million of revenue and $35 million of adjusted EBITDA, up 12% and 0.3% year-over-year, respectively. Results reflect continued strong demand, higher event volumes and solid execution. Profit growth was dampened due to a tough comparison and our proactive decision to invest in wages, recruiting and staffing to support higher demand and sustained execution. Pricing actions began to take effect during the quarter and should provide increasing margin support as we move forward. Looking ahead, we expect double-digit revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth and margin expansion for both the fourth quarter and the full year.

Turning to Branded Services, we generated $225 million of revenue and $18 million of adjusted EBITDA, down 11% and 55% year-over-year, respectively. Performance remained under pressure from client losses and unfavorable business mix. Declines in higher-margin headquarter sales and agencies were partially offset by strong growth in supply chain revenue. Encouragingly, new business wins improved during the quarter and project work in branded retail grew. As Dave discussed, we are taking meaningful action to align the cost structure with the current revenue base and mix, and we expect sequential margin improvement in the fourth quarter with a more meaningful path toward revenue and margin stabilization in 2027.

Finally, for our Retailer Services segment, we generated $251 million of revenue and $32 million of adjusted EBITDA, up 1% and 43% year-over-year, respectively. Results included a small benefit from tariff refunds related to goods we source for retail clients. Excluding the benefit of tariff refunds, adjusted EBITDA would have been up over 30%. Performance was supported by growth in SAS, including pricing, project activity and new business wins as well as solid results at our Daymon private label business. Staffing remains an important focus as we align labor with customer demand and become more agile in reacting to changes in the market. Looking forward, we note that we are going up against a more difficult comparison in the fourth quarter. Despite quarter-to-quarter volatility, we currently estimate roughly flat revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth for the year in this segment.

Our shared service costs were up modestly year-over-year in the third quarter, reversing some of the favorability we experienced during the first half, but those costs remain down year-to-date compared to last year. We have seen lower medical costs than anticipated this year after 2 years of increases well ahead of expectations, which is encouraging. At the same time, we continue to manage costs closely across the shared services and are taking advantage of AI and automation opportunities.

As part of our restructuring activity, we are also taking targeted action to reduce redundant shared service costs and other costs not providing the value originally anticipated. We are also being more discerning about IT projects, which should help lower our costs as well as support lower CapEx in the future.

Turning to Workday, as the project progressed, the cost of the rollout anticipated financial and operational benefits no longer delivered an adequate return. As Dave mentioned, every investment should either enhance the level of service we provide or improve the teammate experience. Starting the project revealed several opportunities to streamline boundary systems, improve processes and leverage new AI technology to enhance workflows without the cost and transition risk of a large system implementation. We have paused the Workday implementation while we reevaluate its scope, design and timing against current business needs.

In the interim, we will continue to operate on our existing human capital platform, pursue targeted upgrades and leverage AI to deliver comparable functionality at a lower cost with reduced transition risk. This approach also creates capacity to streamline, improve and reduce duplication across our other technology systems.

Importantly, this decision reduces our 2026 capital spending expectations, supporting our updated CapEx range of $40 million to $45 million. And this should result in lower future capital and operating costs relative to completing the implementation. We currently expect capital expenditures in 2027 to be in a range of $35 million to $40 million, and we will provide an update in early 2027 once we solidify our spending plans for the year.

Moving beyond Workday, we are beginning the second phase of our transformation, focused on simplifying the organization and resetting the cost structure. As Dave mentioned, the program represents approximately $25 million of annualized cost savings starting in the fourth quarter with plans for at least $5 million in additional savings over time. We continue to assess the opportunity for expanding those savings by addressing spending programs, IT projects and other areas.

The majority of the near-term actions associated with the restructuring will occur in the fourth quarter with the broader restructuring extending into 2027. Most of the operating cost actions are weighted to Branded Services and select support functions. The program extends beyond role reductions to include organizational delayering, consolidation of support structures, reductions in vendor and third-party spend, real estate optimization and lower discretionary costs. We are implementing these actions thoughtfully, recognizing the impact on colleagues while protecting and investing in the 2 layers of resources closest to our clients.

We expect to incur restructuring and reorganization costs related to this work starting in the fourth quarter. We estimate those costs will total $7 million to $10 million, with the majority incurred in the fourth quarter and some extending into 2027. We'll provide more detail as we progress with our plans. The financial objective of the restructuring is to align costs with the current revenue base and business mix and improve incremental margins on future growth.

We remain laser-focused on improving cash generation and managing working capital. DSOs were right at 60 days in the quarter, down from the second quarter, and we remain on a path to approximately 55 days by year-end. We continue to focus on collections and disciplined cash management to achieve this outlook. This diligent focus on working capital management helped support strong adjusted unlevered free cash flow in the quarter, which reached $99 million and a conversion rate of 116%.

Cash generation remains a core strength of the business, supported by disciplined cost and working capital management. Restructuring and Workday-related cash costs will affect reported cash flow, but they should be distinguished from the underlying operating cash generation of the business.

Moving to the balance sheet and capital allocation. We ended the quarter with approximately $131 million of cash on our balance sheet. Net leverage ended the quarter at approximately 4.6x. Our priorities remain maintaining appropriate liquidity and reducing debt. We do not anticipate share repurchases beyond activity intended to offset dilution, and both cash and free cash flow will continue to be directed primarily toward debt reduction.

Finally, turning to our outlook. We are reiterating our full year revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance. We continue to expect revenue growth of flat to up low-single digits with adjusted EBITDA flat to down mid-single digits versus the prior year. We are also reiterating our adjusted unlevered free cash flow guidance of $250 million to $275 million and net free cash flow at 25% of EBITDA before related debt financing costs. We also expect lower interest expense and CapEx as noted. Key factors influencing our outlook include continued strength in experiential demand and execution, retail project timing and second-half project ramps and the pace of restructuring in Branded Services.

As Dave noted, uncertainty in the market has increased, and our guidance allows for a relatively wide range of outcomes in the fourth quarter. As we enter 2027, our focus is on completing the second phase of our transformation, realizing the associated savings and positioning the business for better earnings flow-through as revenue grows.

Thank you for your time. I will now turn it back over to Dave.

David Peacock

Thanks, Chris. The third quarter reinforced the strength of our growth initiatives and the benefits of our diversified offerings while also solidifying where we need to sharpen our focus and improve our execution. The restructuring we announced reflects our approach of always investing to improve our client service where returns are also compelling.

We will execute these actions thoughtfully in an effort to improve how we serve our customers and reduce friction for our teammates. We believe this work will position Advantage as the best service provider to consumer retail while converting growth into stronger margins and cash flow generation over time.

I want to thank everyone for joining us today. Operator, we are now ready for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Luke Morison with Canaccord Genuity.

分析师问答

Lucas Morison

So Dave, the restructuring obviously weighted towards Branded. I think you mentioned in the deck, new business wins improved during the quarter. Just help me think about like what does a healthier Branded business look like in the coming quarters and years as these actions flow through and are in place, both from a growth and margin -- sustainable margin perspective?

David Peacock

Yes. Thanks, Luke. I think a couple of things are important. We said in our prepared remarks, but our restructuring was first designed to improve the service level to our clients. It came with savings because one of the things that we have seen and experienced is we just had too many layers and frankly, bureaucracy was getting in our way to serving clients effectively. So we didn't touch the first 2 layers that touch customers and clients. We've actually invested in growth in client-facing roles, but we eliminated some management roles. That's going to come with savings. So there was -- there were reductions, but also reinvestment in the plan.

I think it's going to put us in a much better spot as a business overall because we now have dedicated focus with really strong leadership on national accounts, kind of large mass and grocery club retailers. And then you've got also our regional focus where we've got 4 regions now with general managers that have full P&L ownership and ownership of the functions from business development to sales execution to client service level. So in the past, we've had some of those functions centralized, and we've put some of that back into the regions so they can be more nimble and more accountable for the results.

When you look at Branded Services overall, we do see some green shoots. We talked about Supply Chain as a Service, which tends to be a lower-margin business, but highly in demand. As we listen to a lot of our clients and if you're listening to any of the CPG earnings calls, there's a lot of discussion around challenges in supply chain, and we can help our clients with that, especially because we have an understanding of the shelf dynamics as well and what's actually needed in store.

And then we're very optimistic about our retail merchandising business. This is a business that -- where we basically go out to stores and either improve the execution or even sell in incremental merchandising of products on behalf of our CPG clients. This helps the retailers who are seeing more challenges in getting labor in store. But this is a business that operates at a slightly higher margin than the overall average of the Branded Services segment, and it's where more and more of our pipeline and growth is coming from as it relates to new business opportunities.

So I think you start seeing stabilization as you get to '27. And then I think this retail merchandising business and I'd say, an improving regional, especially headquarter selling business gets this business back on track.

Lucas Morison

Super helpful. And then maybe, Chris, one for you. The Workday implementation has been paused, but now you have this phase 2 program running into 2027. Just how should we be thinking about the path to stronger free cash flow conversion from EBITDA as that transformation work matures from here?

Christopher Growe

Yes. They're obviously related in a way, let me say it that way, Luke, but I would just say that maybe taking each of the pieces here, when I think about Workday, for right now, it's paused. We're going to work through that program. That manifests itself and as we said, I think, in my prepared remarks, in less CapEx in the short term.

There is a charge we'll take this quarter as well. I still think that our charges -- kind of restructuring charges for the year will be around what we had said before, around that $35 million level, maybe a little bit above that. I think you're going to see about $7 million to $10 million related to restructuring actions overall to achieve this $30 million plus in savings. So given what we've realized to date in charges, given what we expect from the new program, it still puts us, I think, in line with what we had said to you before.

Do some actions kind of linger into next year? Certainly, that's possible. But I still think we're going to have a lower level of restructuring charges next year and the outcome of that would be better cash flow. At the same time, we talked about CapEx, and CapEx is a little lower this year, and we indicated that in that kind of $35-plus million level next year. So it's going to be down as well in 2027. That, too, will help cash flow. So I think there's still some -- even though we've got some changes going on here, if I could say it that way, I think you're still going to see the kind of support there for stronger free cash flow growth in 2027.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Greg Parrish with Morgan Stanley.

Gregory Parrish

Congrats on the results. Just thinking about fourth quarter here, I mean, how should we think about the cadence relative to the results you just put up, revenue up 1%, EBITDA down 12% organically on year-over-year? Like how do we roll that forward to fourth quarter? Your guidance range sort of allows for a lot of flexibility?

Christopher Growe

It does, and it was deliberate, as you can imagine, we thought a lot about that. Just there's a number of moving parts that caused us to want to keep that a little bit wider range going into the fourth quarter. I think the wider range allows for varying outcomes, and we're in the middle of restructuring our Branded Services business. We did indicate that would get better in the fourth quarter. We also indicated that you'd see double-digit revenue and EBITDA growth in Experiential, and we said there would be margin expansion there. We also indicated that Retailer was going to be a little more challenged in the fourth quarter, just we've seen some volatility quarter-to-quarter in the project work, and we have a tough comp to the prior year. So we've given some of the elements, if you will, Greg, I think we would kind of leave it at that from that standpoint to give your indication there for the fourth quarter.

David Peacock

Yes. Greg, let me build on what Chris said. One thing to think about is, especially when he talks about Retailer, but it applies to some other spots in the business, it gets down to being awarded projects and then staffing and having that timing aligned. So sometimes your projects will span December through February or December through March. And so to the degree you can get staff up and running, you can realize some of that earlier or some of that may bleed into the following year and because a lot of retailers especially have different fiscal years than the calendar fiscal. So that's driving some of this as well.

Gregory Parrish

Yes. Okay. I appreciate the color that you were able to give. So on this cost savings program, it seems that the savings are all operating, it seems like. And then I mean, will any of these savings be reinvested? Or do you expect most, if not all, to sort of flow through to the bottom line?

David Peacock

The savings that we report in both $25 million and greater than $5 million going in the future are net. So as it relates to how those are in the P&L, if you will, there are reinvestments that were already contemplated. They obviously don't include kind of onetime costs, but they were net because we did make some reinvestments in frontline roles and client-facing roles and just even in caliber of talent that -- in a handful of leadership roles.

Gregory Parrish

Okay. That's helpful color. And then maybe just one last one for me. So this tariff refund, I mean, I think you can kind of back into it based on the color you gave. I don't remember seeing this before. I mean, is this the first quarter that you've seen this flow through? And is this -- is there any expected future flow-through of this? Or is this onetime?

Christopher Growe

Yes. I would just say that you've seen like every CPG company has had this as well. We have a smaller business within our Retailer Services segment that does, for -- I'll call it, for a short period of time, will hold inventory, but it purchases product for some retailers. And that business, therefore, experienced a negative effect of the tariffs last year. And then this year gets the -- obviously, the benefit from that. There's been some refunds coming through as a result of the changes in those programs. So that did come through. Yes, you can do the math on that, and it was not a huge contributor, but it did contribute to our profit in the third quarter.

Gregory Parrish

Okay. So maybe a little bit more modest impact in fourth quarter and then limited next year.

Christopher Growe

Yes. Sorry, Greg, you asked about going forward. I would not expect much going forward. I think most of that's already been realized. So I think we're there for -- again, I would think we're always trying to look for more, of course, but I think there's -- most of our refunds that we've applied for have all been returned already, and they're here in the third quarter.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to David Peacock for closing remarks.

David Peacock

We want to thank everybody for joining, and we look forward to connecting with this group next quarter. Thank you.

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may now disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for participating.