Dine Brands (DIN) 2026财年第三季度业绩电话会议：营收增长，EBITDA持平

核心要点

• 2026财年第三季度营收同比增长15.1%至2.489亿美元，这主要反映出自2025财年第三季度以来收购或新开的直营餐厅带来了3690万美元的营收增加。
• 调整后EBITDA持平于4900万美元；调整后稀释每股收益从上年同期的0.73美元增至0.82美元。
• Applebee’s国内同店销售额增长0.9%，IHOP增长0.8%。IHOP在客流量方面连续第七个季度优于Black Box数据，在销售额方面连续第四个季度优于Black Box。
• 2026财年前九个月调整后自由现金流从6820万美元降至1280万美元，反映出经营现金流下降、翻新和开发激励支出以及资本支出增加。
• 管理层表示，Dine Brands正在朝其全年业绩指引区间的低端靠拢。预计第四季度两大品牌的销售额将保持与第三季度相似的水平。
• 董事会拒绝了一项针对Dine Brands的主动要约，称其缺乏充分性且严重低估了公司价值。公司还采纳了一项股东权利计划。

核心财务数据

Dine Brands在第三季度向股东回报了900万美元，其中包括700万美元的股票回购和200万美元的股息。今年迄今股票回购总额达3590万美元，约相当于2026年初流通股总数的8%。

业务与经营表现

Applebee’s

受强劲的7月份表现推动，Applebee’s国内可比销售额增长0.9%。7月份的强劲表现得益于Dollarita鸡尾酒以及“2份25美元”菜单中培根芝士堡云吞塔可（Bacon Cheeseburger Wonton Taco）的回归。管理层将该前菜描述为疫情以来Applebee’s推出效果最强劲的新开胃菜。

外带及外卖可比销售额增长1.8%，将该渠道的连续增长势头延续至七个季度。外带及外卖占特许经营餐厅周平均销售额的23%，其中自提订单占11.2%，外卖占11.9%。

Applebee’s今年迄今已完成107家“Looking Good”翻新项目，超过了100家的目标。管理层表示，受客流量增加推动，翻新后的餐厅继续实现至少中单位数的平均销售额提升。公司预计到2027年底将有大约一半的Applebee’s餐厅完成翻新。

Applebee’s在本季度实施了3%至4%的菜单涨价，不过管理层报告产品组合略有下滑且客流量为负增长。平均客单价为39美元。

IHOP

IHOP可比销售额增长0.8%。其日常超值菜单仍是品牌战略的核心，而迪拜巧克力煎饼（Dubai Chocolate Pancakes）和招牌盛宴早餐（Signature BreakFEASTS）等高端产品则支撑了更高的客单价和消费升级机会。

外带及外卖可比销售额增长5.6%，其中通过第一方线上自提渠道增长了10%。在针对大宗订单的新技术和新包装支持下，餐饮外送销售额同比增长44%。

运营指标也有所改善。翻台时间创下疫情后的新低，而谷歌平均评分同比有所上升。IHOP的平均客单价为36美元，3%至4%的菜单涨价部分被略负的产品组合和客流量所抵消。

双品牌与直营餐厅

在业绩电话会议举行时，Dine Brands已在国内开业60家双品牌餐厅，另有14家正在建设中。管理层表示，双品牌门店的销售额大约是原有独立餐厅的1.5至2倍，并预计到年底开业或在建门店将达到80家。

直营双品牌改造费用约为100万至150万美元，包括递延维护费用。管理层表示，其2027年双品牌开发储备项目是约翰·佩顿（John Peyton）在公司任职六年期间最强劲的。

截至第三季度末，Dine Brands拥有136家直营餐厅（包括七家双品牌门店），约占整个系统门店数的4%。公司目前暂无扩大这一直营组合的计划，并打算随着餐厅经营状况改善将其重新转让给加盟商。最早收购的一批餐厅已在餐厅层面实现盈利，不过管理层认为仍有进一步提升的空间。

管理层业绩指引

管理层维持了Dine Brands全年财务指引区间的低端，并表示公司目前正向该水平靠拢。

公司预计Applebee’s和IHOP第四季度的销售额将与第三季度相似。Applebee’s在本季度初表现较为平缓，但随后有所增强；而IHOP继续受益于夹心法式吐司（Stuffed French Toast）的回归。

管理层预计，因施工导致的停业天数减少将有助于改善第四季度直营餐厅的表现。然而，直营业务板块预计在该季度仍将录得息税前利润（EBIT）亏损。

供应链合作伙伴CSCS继续预计，2026年Applebee’s的大宗商品通货膨胀率将在中单位数水平，IHOP将在低单位数水平。牛肉价格上涨是主要驱动因素。Dine Brands表示，2026年期间实施的项目已在全系统范围内创造了超过2200万美元的年化节省。

风险与关注重点

• 随着Dine Brands资助翻新激励、开发举措以及直营餐厅投资，调整后自由现金流大幅下降。
• Applebee’s的大宗商品成本同比上升5.4%，而IHOP为1.3%，牛肉价格上涨对两个品牌均造成了影响。
• Applebee’s第四季度开局平缓。管理层还提到，消费者对其9月份促销活动的反应较为平淡，且8月份连续两周暂停电视广告对客流量产生了影响。
• 直营餐厅业务仍处于亏损状态，新收购的餐厅组合需要额外时间进行门店硬件升级、人员配备、培训和经营改善。
• 不包括广告费用的特许经营收入下降1.5%，反映出特许经营餐厅数量减少、解约费降低以及专有产品销售减少。
• 对价格敏感的消费者仍面临压力。管理层表示，高收入顾客的到店率正在增长，而价格敏感度更高的客群则更有可能选择快餐店或在家用餐。

分析师问答环节要点

分析师关注的焦点集中在双品牌经济效应、第四季度销售趋势以及直营餐厅的业绩扭亏上。管理层表示，直营双品牌门店带来的销售额提升略强于特许经营改造门店，因为后者的起点基数较低，不过直营门店的改造成本也更高。

关于Applebee’s的增长势头，管理层将7月之后的平缓期归因于8月电视广告曝光减少以及9月促销活动效果不及预期。管理层表示，10月的表现与9月相似，随后趋势开始有所回升。

管理层预计，施工关店减少将对第四季度EBITDA形成支撑，但直营板块仍将保持亏损。Dine Brands已开始与有兴趣收购餐厅的加盟商展开讨论，管理层强调，门店无需在完全实现扭亏后才进行重新特许经营。

消费者行为与最近几个季度大体保持一致。超值选择平台占Applebee’s交易量的25%，占IHOP交易量的22%。在Applebee’s，“2份25美元”顾客中选择消费升级的比例从第一季度的61%升至第三季度的68.5%。

业绩电话会议完整文字记录

完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Dine Brands Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, today's program is being recorded. And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Matt Lee, Senior Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Matthew Lee

Good morning, and welcome to Dine Brands Global's Third Quarter Fiscal 2026 Conference Call. This morning's call will include prepared remarks from John Payne, CEO and President of Applebee's; and Vance Chang, CFO. Following those prepared remarks, Lawrence Kim, Chief Commercial Officer and President of IHOP will also be available along with Jon advance to address questions during the Q&A portion of the call. Please remember our safe harbor regarding forward-looking information. During the call, management will discuss information that is forward-looking and involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, which may cause the actual results to be different than those expressed or implied.

Please evaluate the forward-looking information in the context of these factors, which are detailed in today's press release and 10-Q filing. The forward-looking statements are as of today, and we assume no obligation to update or supplement these statements. We will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, which are described in our press release that is available on Dine Brands' Investor Relations website. With that, it is my pleasure to turn the call over to Dine Brands CEO, John Peyton.

John Peyton

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Today, I'll begin with an overview of Dine's Q3 performance and share updates on the brand initiatives across Applebee's fuzzies and IHOP that are driving our results. And after that, I'll turn it over to Vince, who will walk through our financial results in more detail. Dine delivered Q3 results in line with our expectations, while continuing to make deliberate investments in the brands and the business. For the quarter, Applebee's reported a 0.9% increase in domestic comp sales, driven by a strong July, during which the brand outperformed Black Box on both traffic and sales.

IHOP posted domestic comp sales of positive 0.8% and delivered its seventh consecutive quarter of traffic outperformance and the fourth consecutive quarter of sales outperformance versus Black Box. And our adjusted EBITDA was $49 million compared to $49 million in the same quarter last year. With those results as the backdrop, let me share some insights on what's driving them, starting first with the consumer. Over the last 3 years, consumer behavior has been remarkably consistent. In the context of persistent inflation on food away from home and higher gas prices, consumer sentiment has remained low, and guests are driven by a strong value proposition where they know the full price of the meal. Notably though, consumers are less likely to cut back on occasion dining, and that is a benefit to us, and we expect this dynamic to continue into 2027.

Looking at guest behavior at our brands, specifically, average check levels have held steady, reflecting mild check management and value incidents also remained relatively consistent at 25% of transactions for Applebee's and 22% of transactions at IHOP, which is roughly in the middle to high end of our historical range. This is another indication that value is a big decision driver. Overall, casual dining has shown resilience this year, and ultimately, our performance comes down to our consistency in messaging and conviction in our strategy. So if you recall, in Q3 of last year, we made a deliberate set of changes.

First, we introduced everyday value platforms at IHOP and amplified 2 for $25 at Applebee's. We dialed up menu innovation at both brands. We sharpened our operational focus within the restaurants and we rolled out a new marketing strategy to better integrate our brands into the cultural conversation. One of our greatest competitive advantages is that we own 2 of the most iconic American brands. We've managed through different economic cycles, and we've demonstrated our ability to evolve with our guest needs without sacrificing the core of what makes each brand so special. And as we look ahead, we're prioritizing investments that improve both comp sales and the overall footprint of our brand, which includes refreshing restaurant appearance through our remodel programs and expanding our dual brand concept both to drive more value out of each location and accelerating that work through our company-owned portfolio as well.

Of course, these investments require upfront capital, yet they yield significant long-term upside. Over the past 2 years, we've been able to aggressively lean into the strategy for 2 reasons: First, our asset-light model generates strong, consistent free cash flow, which gives us the flexibility to invest in our brands without compromising our financial discipline. And second, we continue to see real commitment from our franchisees who are investing in our brands and the strategy alongside of us. With the progress we're making on these strategic initiatives, we're well positioned to deliver long-term sustainable value for our franchisees and shareholders.

And so with that, I'll share some updates across our portfolio, beginning with Applebee's. Comp sales at Applebee's returned to growth in Q3, up 0.9%, with traffic also improving versus the prior quarter. The quarter started strong with the return of our iconic Dollarita and the introduction of the Bacon Cheeseburger wanton Taco on the 2 for $25 platform. Leveraging the strength of our value platform and our bar and beverage program, these promotions delivered positive sales and traffic during the period and outperform Black Box. In fact, the Bacon Cheeseburger on ton Taco became our strongest new appetizer launch since the pandemic, outperforming our previous best loaded potato waves that we launched just last quarter.

Now I want to take a moment to put a finer point on this. Since reinvigorating our menu innovation engine about a year ago, each new menu item has built on the popularity of the last. And looking ahead, we expect to have more new food items launching over the next 12 months than we have had in the last few years. Regarding off-premise, we extended our streak of positive comp sales to a seventh consecutive quarter with comp sales growing 1.8%, supported by delivery growth. This is particularly notable given that only 1 of our 3 campaigns this quarter was available off-premise, which tells us that demand is broadening beyond specific promotions. Applebee's also saw strengthening social media performance this quarter with third-party data from UBS showing that interactions more than tripled year-over-year, ranking among the top-performing restaurant brands.

On remodels, we've completed 107 Applebee's looking good remodels year-to-date, already exceeding our target of 100 for the year as part of a broader refresh cycle that will bring us to roughly half the portfolio remodeled by the end of 2027. On average, these restaurants continue to see at least a mid-single-digit lift to sales, driven by increased traffic following a reimage. From an operations standpoint, our focus on driving excellence through simplicity and accountability continue to produce measurable results. Order accuracy has improved, manager visibility in the dining room increased, Google ratings are up, all contributing to improving guest satisfaction. And last, I want to mention that we recently hosted our Applebee's global franchisee conference bringing together franchisees from across the system to align on priorities for the year ahead.

Our conversations reinforced our strong sense of partnership and our franchisees were engaged on the initiatives driving the brand forward menu innovation to remodels. Now moving on to IHOP. In Q3, comp sales at IHOP grew 0.8%. The brand also outperformed Black Box on both sales and traffic for the fourth consecutive quarter with traffic outperformance now extending to 7 consecutive quarters. Clearly, this isn't a 1-quarter story and it coincides with the launch of the everyday value menu last year. It's a steady performance and that consistency is exactly the validation we're looking for in our strategy. The growth in comp sales was supported by a healthy growth in check driven by strong in-store activations including server incentives and in-restaurant point of purchase materials that drew attention to higher-priced items.

The everyday value menu is a foundational element of IHOP's barbell strategy providing accessible value while creating space for premium innovation-led offerings as well. This quarter, the premium end was fueled by products like the Dubai Chalco pancakes and our signature break feasts. Together, these offerings leverage cultural trends and menu innovation to drive incremental engagement and trade-up opportunities. Off-premise recorded 5.6% comp growth with 10% growth at our first-party online to-go channels. We're also seeing early strength in catering, a newer part of our business, where sales grew 44% compared to a year ago. That growth reflects new technology and packaging built specifically to handle larger catering orders, and we believe there's still meaningful upside in this channel.

Our social and earned media efforts also showed meaningful growth with third-party data from listen first, indicating engagement across all channels climbed 54% quarter-over-quarter. And finally, operationally, we continue to make good progress. Table turn times improved and reached a new all-time low post COVID, and average Google ratings also increased year-over-year, reflecting improved and consistent in-restaurant experience. Turning to fuzzies. Traffic improved sequentially every quarter this year, driven by technology enhancements, menu simplification and a better in-restaurant experience. Off-premise remains a meaningful and consistent contributor to the brand's quarter-over-quarter progress. We are encouraged by Fuzzy's performance and are focused on sustaining this momentum through the end of the year.

On development, our dual brand platform is 1 of our strongest long-term growth levers. Dual brand sales continued to perform well, averaging roughly 1.5 to 2x the sales of the original stand-alone restaurant. As of today, we have 60 domestic dual brand restaurants open, including 9 company-owned with 14 more under construction. We remain on track to reach 80 domestic dual brands by year-end. As the platform has scaled, we've also refined how we operate. We've invested in additional training to help IHOP franchisees, run the bar program more effectively and we've adjusted Applebee's kitchen operations and equipment to handle the volume of IHOP's scratch-made breakfast daypart.

With each new opening, we learn more. And together with our franchisees, we are getting better at running these restaurants, and that matters just as much to long-term returns as the pace of our openings. Before turning the call over to Vance, I'll note that Q4 trends have been mixed across the brand so far. Applebee's started the quarter somewhat soft, while IHOP is continuing its momentum, supported by the return of Stuff French toast in mid-September. We're tracking toward the lower end of our full year guidance. All in all, we're pleased with the progress we're seeing across the business this quarter, and we remain confident in the strategy we've laid out. Building long-term value through consistent execution today and disciplined investment in our future growth. And with that, I will turn it over to Vance.

Vance Chang

Thanks, John. On the top line, total revenues increased 15.1% to $248.9 million in Q3 versus $216.2 million in the prior year, and is driven by $36.9 million increase in company-owned restaurant revenues from restaurants acquired and opened since the third quarter of 2025. So if we take out advertising revenues, franchise revenues in Q3 decreased by 1.5% due to a reduction in the number of franchise restaurants, lower franchise termination fees due to fewer closures and lower proprietary product sales due to the removal of gluten-friendly product offerings.

Rental segment revenues for the third quarter of 2026 decreased to $25.5 million versus $27.3 million in the prior year period, primarily driven by restaurant closures as well as our decision to work with our franchisees to exit subleases as they expire in favor of stimulating future development. G&A expenses were $51.6 million in Q3 of 2026 up from $50.2 million in the same period of last year from higher professional services fees and higher employee-related costs associated with our investment in company-owned and dual brand restaurant initiatives.

Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 of 2026 was flat at $49 million from $49 million in Q3 of 2025. Adjusted diluted EPS for the third quarter of 2026 was $0.82 compared to adjusted diluted EPS of $0.73 for the third quarter of 2025. Now turning to the statement of cash flows. We had adjusted free cash flow of $12.8 million for the first 9 months of 2026 compared to $68.2 million for the same period of last year. This decrease was primarily driven by a decrease in cash provided by operating activities, which includes the impact of remodel and development incentives and the increase in CapEx related to company-owned restaurant remodels and dual-brand conversions. CapEx through 2026 was $31 million compared to $21.3 million for the same period of 2025. We finished the third quarter with total unrestricted cash of $91.1 million compared to unrestricted cash of $97.5 million at the end of the second quarter.

On buybacks and dividends, we returned $9 million of capital to shareholders in Q3, including $7 million of shares repurchases and $2 million of dividends. Year-to-date, we repurchased $35.9 million of shares, which was approximately 8% of our shares outstanding at the beginning of the year. We continue to believe our shares are undervalued and remain committed to share repurchases. Our $500 million Series 2023 notes become callable at par in December. We will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to refinance these notes beneficial to us. Next, let me discuss Applebee's performance. Q3 domestic same-restaurant sales increased 0.9% year-over-year. Domestic average weekly franchise sales per restaurant were $53,000 to $700 and including approximately $12,400 from off-premise or 23% of total sales, of which 11.2% is from to go and 11.9% is from delivery. On-premise saw a positive 1.8% lift in comp sales in 2026 compared to the same period of last year. IHOP's Q3 domestic same-restaurant sales increased 0.8%.

Domestic average weekly franchise sales per restaurant were $38,500, including $8,100 from off-premise or 21% of total sales, of which 7.6% is from to go and 13.4% is from delivery. Our premise saw a positive 5.6% lift in comp sales in 2026 compared to the same period of last year. Now turning to commodities. Applebee's commodity costs in Q3 increased by 5.4% and IHOP commodity costs increased by 1.3% versus the same period last year. Our co-op supply chain partner, CSCS, continues to expect commodity costs in 2026 at mid-single digits for Applebee's and low single digits for IHOP. The primary driver for both rents commodity costs is higher beef prices including the lapping of favorable beef contracts Applebee's last year.

To date, in 2026, we implemented projects resulting in over $22 million of annualized savings across both systems and we continue to partner with CSCS to leverage our scale. Lastly, our company-owned portfolio remains a focus in strengthening the health of the brands and supporting long-term value creation for the business. As a reminder, we opportunistically took over restaurants with good opportunity for turnaround and value creation as we accelerate our dual brand and remodeling initiatives. As of Q3, we own 136 restaurants including 7 dual-branded restaurants, which represents approximately 4% of our system. We believe we have an appropriate balance between a number of company-owned restaurants versus franchise restaurants, and there's no reason to add to our company-owned portfolio at this point.

Our goal is to ultimately refranchise the restaurants as operations improve, and we have already started to engage with various franchisees who are interested in acquiring some of our restaurants. It's important to remember that because we have taken back these portfolios over time, each restaurant and portfolio is at a different stage in its multiyear investment plan, which is why the portfolios are currently performing differently. While we have seen an impact from increased lost operating days due to more dual brand conversions and remodels, we're encouraged by the portfolios that have had the longest time to benefit from our ownership.

Based on what we have seen in those cohorts, we expect our more recent portfolios to follow a similar path of improvement as they move through the same investment life cycle. Before turning the call back over to John for Q&A, I'd like to add that we are maintaining the low end of our full year financial guidance at this time. With that, I will hand it back over to John.

John Peyton

Thanks, Vance. And to wrap up before Q&A, as you may have seen earlier this week, we filed an 8-K confirming receipt of an unsolicited offer for the company. The Board, with the assistance of its outside advisers, carefully evaluated the offer and determined that the proposal was inadequate and substantially undervalued the company and the Board has since rejected that offer. Last week, the company also put in place a stockholder rights plan that protects all our sets -- that protects all our stockholders from opportunistic share accumulations.

Any further disclosures regarding this matter will be made by the Board, who act in the best interest of all of our stockholders. As such, we won't be answering any questions on this topic on today's earnings call. And as a management team, we are focused on delivering against our strategic priorities for the benefit of all of Dine Brands stockholders and operating business as usual. And so now I will turn the call over to Jonathan to open up for Q&A.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question for today comes from the line of Nick Setyan from Mizuho.

分析师问答

Nerses Setyan

Just on the dual brands that you do on, I think you did the 77 that's under your control. Would you mind telling us like what the economics are in terms of sales for all margin and the cost now in terms of the conversion?

John Peyton

Nick, Vance can address that question. .

Vance Chang

With our own dual brands, they're all fairly new, but we are seeing slightly higher top line lift than the franchise units just because the starting point is a little bit lower for these restaurants. And also the cost to convert for these restaurants are slightly higher. We're pricing somewhere in the $1 million to $1.5 million range, including some of the deferred maintenance costs that we have to put up to convert these restaurants. But all in all, pleased with the progress, and we're going to continue to refine and improve the operations.

Nerses Setyan

Got it. And then just in terms of the quarterly cadence of the Applebee's comp, I think you said it kind of started off strong and then maybe slowed down a little bit. October started off slow, are just so we're all on the same page? Are you implying negative same-store sales growth at Applebee's in Q4?

Vance Chang

Nick, actually, this is Vance again. What we're seeing is a similar sort of sales volume in Q4 versus Q3. And so that's how we're getting to the lower end of our full year financial guidance for both of our brands. .

Operator

And our next question comes from Dennis Geiger from UBS.

Dennis Geiger

Encouraging to see some of that progress on the Applebee's traffic and sales driver plans. Wondering following up on Nick's question, just on that quarter-to-date period, if that's something that's a bit more transitory in your view on the Applebee's side. Anything that's kind of driven some of that incremental pressure. I know you guys wouldn't be the only ones to see. Is there anything more there? And sort of how you're thinking about the underlying trend from here if that is a bit more transitory? That's point one.

John Peyton

Dennis, it's John. I think for the quarter, we can point to a couple of specific issues or items that drive it. In July, as we mentioned, we overperformed Black Box riding Dollarita and the Cheeseburger Taco. We were dark for 2 weeks on television in August, which is -- often correlates to a slowdown in traffic for us. And then in September, the market response to our promotion then was not as strong as it was for the Taco Cheeseburger. That said, as we moved into the fourth quarter, we saw September, similar to October and since then getting stronger. .

Dennis Geiger

Got it. Very helpful. And then just another 1 on the dual branded. I appreciate the color and encouraging to see those early results. Can you talk a bit more about the demand beyond the 80 that you're on track for by the end of the year? Anything more on sort of what the demand pipeline might look like? Maybe it's a little early to share that. But as we look beyond '26 on that front as far as with the franchisees go .

John Peyton

Yes. It's still, John. So like we said, we've got 60 open and we'll have 80 open or under construction by the end of the year. we haven't given guidance yet, to your point, in which we'll do that next year. However, I can tell you that as we look to the pipeline for 2027, it is strong and the strongest it's been in the 6 years that I've been here. .

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Todd Brooks from Benchmark StoneX.

Todd Brooks

One, Vance, I was just wondering if kind of a bookkeeping question here, but what the average check ran at both brands in Q3.

Vance Chang

For Applebee's 39 for IHOP 36. .

Todd Brooks

I mean from a composition of same-store sales, what the average check contribution was, sorry? .

Vance Chang

Yes. So both brands had sort of 3 anything increased -- we saw a negative mix that is traffic for 1 and a check for both of them. .

Todd Brooks

Sorry to ask you to repeat that, Vance, but you broke it during the answer.

John Peyton

Yes, Vance and Sean. It was hard to hear you. .

Vance Chang

Okay. So both brands had 3% to 4% menu pricing increase for the quarter. And we saw a negative -- slightly negative P mix for both of our brands and negative traffic for both our brands. And I just gave you the average check $39 for Applebee's and $36 for IHOP..

Todd Brooks

Okay. Perfect. And then yes, I heard you better at that time. John, not to harp on the start to the quarter for Applebee's, but I know we talked in the past about the NFL partnership and maybe more of a focus in this year's messaging around value given the consumers' obvious desire for it. Do you feel like you've used the platform to really highlight that value message or maybe any thoughts on at least early on here in the quarter, why it may not be resonating with the customer at Applebee's?

John Peyton

So this is year 3 of our NFL partnership, and we leaned into it less this year than in the past because the return on the investment wasn't as significant as we thought it would be. So we've been focusing with the NFL primarily on our off-prem channel around our wings offers, and we've seen good success there. But when it comes to the broader message on television, unlike the investments we made in Dan Campbell over the last 2 years, we've been focused on the super 25 and the new food news in place of a stronger, more thorough NFL message. .

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our next question comes from the line of Brian Vaccaro from Raymond James.

Brian Vaccaro

I just had a question on the guidance. I believe you reiterated the low end of your EBITDA guide, which I think is $220 million. If that's right, I think it embeds around $66 million million for the fourth quarter, which is up pretty nicely versus the fourth quarter of last year. Can you just help us understand some of the moving pieces that would drive that year-on-year increase and maybe within that, just remind us, what do you expect for G&A for the year?

John Peyton

Thanks, Brian. Vance, can you take that, please?

Vance Chang

Brian, so we're already maintaining guidance range for 2 reasons. One, overall, we have a very steady sort of base franchise business, and we're expecting similar sales volume in Q4 as Q3, right, based on early trends. And the second thing is company restaurants. We believe company restaurants will continue to improve. -- especially since we expect for construction-related closure days in Q4 due to just normal seasonality, weather patterns, et cetera. So we're not going to have as many closure base. And that's going to improve company restaurant performance and support ...

Brian Vaccaro

We're losing the end of your words .

John Peyton

Vance, it's John. We lost the last minute or so of your answer. .

Vance Chang

So Brian, so let me know. So we're maintaining guidance for 2 reasons. One, we have a steady base franchise business that we're expecting similar sales volume in Q4 as Q3 based on what we're seeing right now. Two is company restaurants. We believe company restaurants will continue to improve in Q4 especially because we're expecting fewer construction-related closure days in Q4 due to just normal seasonality. And that's going to improve company restaurant performance and support EBITDA -- EBITDA performance for the company. And Brian, the short-term EBITDA pressure is going to moderate over time as we start to leverage the investment that we've made in our system. So for next year. .

Brian Vaccaro

Okay. And Vance, following up on that, the company segment, I think it has been reporting a couple of million dollar loss in the last few quarters. Would you expect that to turn to a profit on the EBIT line for the fourth quarter within your guidance? Or will there still be a slight loss there?

Vance Chang

It will still be a loss. But the 1 thing that I mentioned in my prepared remarks is that depending on the timing of when we took over the portfolio, right, the performance will be mixed. And so the later -- the newer portfolios would need a little bit more time because we just took them but the older portfolios are performing according to plan. And we're seeing that tracking in a similar pattern and so it's a basis of the physical infrastructure improvements we've made, the training, the staffing changes we've made.

So we're pretty optimistic about that. And Brian, last thing I would just remind you is that the goal isn't to hold on to these restaurants permanently, and we are looking to refranchise them and we have inbound interest from franchisees already, and we're going to continue those conversations. They don't need to be fully turned around before they get refranchise.

Brian Vaccaro

Okay. That's great. And then I guess, just if I have time for a quick follow-up, John. I appreciate the comments you made at the beginning on the broader consumer I'm curious if you're seeing any changes in behavior across income cohorts. Any firming potentially in the lower-income consumer? Or just any other behavior shifts you're seeing within your customer base? .

John Peyton

Yes. Thanks, Todd. I would say what we're seeing this past quarter is just very consistent with what we've seen past the past several quarters. which I would summarize as we're seeing a growth in our higher income consumer, and we're seeing that our more value-oriented price-sensitive guests is more likely to add a QSR visit or stay at home. So that's very remarkably consistent. But I will tell you, I want to emphasize 2 points that are encouraging -- or looks like encouraging data. One is we often talk about the percentage of sales in each brand that represents our value for 25 or everyday value. at Applebee's this past quarter, it was 25% at IHOP, it was 22%.

And that's right in the middle of their typical ranges and slightly lower than what we've seen in the last couple of quarters, which is an indication that guests who are coming out to full service dining and want to celebrate an occasion are not quite selecting from our value menu to the extent they were the last couple of quarters. The other thing that's the beginning of an interesting statistic is the trade up on 225. So as you know, we have the entry level of $25 and then you can spend a few more dollars for Tier 2 and a few more dollars for Tier 3. In -- in Q1, 61% of guests traded up on Tuber25, and that number last quarter was 68.5%, so up 7-plus points again, an indication that guests are willing to spend a few more dollars to trade up in the restaurant.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question is a follow-up from the line of Todd Brooks from Benchmark StoneX.

Todd Brooks

Just a quick follow-up question on Brian's questioning. If you look at the older portfolios that have been acquired Vance. Have those reached positive restaurant level EBITDA yet. And I don't know if this is for answer for John, but given maybe the improvement in those more mature portfolios within that 3-year time frame that you had kind of spelled out, when would you expect potentially for these to trade back into the market with another buyer?

John Peyton

Yes. Thanks, Todd. Vance can address both those questions.

Vance Chang

Todd, I apologize. Could you repeat your question 1 more time, it was coming through really choppy for me. .

Todd Brooks

Sure, the oldest portfolio cohort on the acquired company stores. Has that group of restaurants reached EBITDA profitability at the restaurant level? And given how those stores are kind of maturing, aging and improving, what would you say the likelihood of getting a refranchising transaction done within that kind of loose 3-year target window that you guys are originally communicated on.

Vance Chang

Yes. The oldest cohort is profitable and -- but we expect more upside for them. Now I would say the -- we talked about the 3-year turnaround time line for each of the cohorts. And -- but each deal, right, as we refranchise, as we get into the negotiation with the franchisees, each deal is bespoke, and franchisees are interested in the restaurants for different reasons, such as unlocking a certain territory for them or opening dual brands. And they're not necessarily all driven by operational or financial metrics only. And so -- so in the meantime, we're focused on the fundamentals, which includes the physical infrastructure as well as training, staffing, moving guest experience overall. And we're making year-over-year progress. But don't think of it as financial improvement is the only reason why they would be refranchised. Does that make sense?

Operator

This does conclude the question-and-answer session of today's program. I'd like to hand the program back to John Peyton, Dine Brands' CEO, for any further remarks.

John Peyton

Jonathan, thank you. Thank you all for your questions. We appreciate it, and we'll talk to some of you later today. Take care. .

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.