萨布拉健康护理REIT (SBRA) 2026年第三季度业绩电话会议：SHOP业务增长与业绩指引上调

核心要点

• Sabra Health Care REIT公布2026年第三季度标准化FFO为每股0.39美元，标准化AFFO为每股0.41美元，均同比增长8%。
• 同店SHOP现金净营运收入（NOI）同比增长14.6%，现金NOI利润率达34.9%。入住率上升160个基点至89.2%。
• Sabra今年迄今已完成超过7.47亿美元的投资，预计收益率为8%。公司还拥有4.25亿美元已中标的投资项目，并正在积极争取另外2.6亿美元的SHOP项目机会。
• 管理层将2026年标准化FFO和AFFO指引的中值每股上调了0.05美元。在新的中值水平下，预计标准化FFO同比增长7%，标准化AFFO同比增长8%。
• 净债务与调整后EBITDA之比环比下降至4.54倍（此前为4.61倍）。截至2026年9月30日，流动资金总额约为12亿美元。
• 管理层预计，到2027年底SHOP业务占比将接近50%，同时保留专业护理设施比重，以维持投资组合的多样性并获取潜在的租金重置上行空间。

核心财务数据

业务与运营业绩

Sabra的高龄者住房运营投资组合（SHOP）依然是主要增长动力。包括未稳定社区及按Sabra持股比例计算的合资企业在内，收入环比增长10.3%，NOI环比增长8.5%。

同店美国本土SHOP入住率上升211个基点至86.9%。加拿大入住率上升77个基点至93.9%，连续第十个季度保持在90%以上。加拿大同店收入和RevPAR分别增长7.0%和6.4%。

费用增长主要受维修与保养、销售与营销以及绩效管理费拉动。人工成本增幅保持在3%以下。管理层将住户费率的强劲表现部分归因于运营商为护理需求更高的住户提供服务，并收取了相应护理级别的费用。

Sabra在第三季度投资了2.228亿美元，新增7个SHOP社区。季度结束后，公司又在4个SHOP社区投资了1.407亿美元。今年迄今的投资额已突破7.47亿美元，预计收益率为8%。

公司已完成和已中标的投资额超过11.7亿美元，几乎全部集中在SHOP领域；此外还在积极争取另外2.6亿美元的SHOP投资机会。自年初以来完成的交易中，约30%为非公开市场交易，而在已完成和中标的项目机会中，预计有65%将保留原有的运营商。

在专业护理领域，管理层正在就两项投资组合优化机会进行谈判。相关租赁覆盖率在2倍以上，且随着租约在2027年至2031年期间到期，管理层预计具备租金重置潜力。自10月1日起生效的Avamere过渡方案使年化租金从4800万美元增至5300万美元，管理层预计在2027年将带来约500万美元或略高的NOI同比贡献。

管理层业绩指引

Sabra将2026年标准化FFO和标准化AFFO指引的中值每股上调了0.05美元。在调整后的中值水平下，管理层预计每股标准化FFO同比增长7%，每股标准化AFFO同比增长8%。

管理层表示，第四季度更为强劲的SHOP展望反映了投资组合广泛的业务韧性以及预测能见度的提升。在运营杠杆的支撑下，公司预计入住率和费率将持续增长。管理层估计，新增入住率目前可产生至少50%的边际利润转化率，当入住率达到92%至93%时，该转化率有可能升至70%以上。

对于4.25亿美元的已中标投资储备，其经济效益与2026年完成的交易相似。管理层指出无杠杆内部收益率（IRR）处于10%低段至15%左右的区间。包含精选增值型投资在内的已完成及已中标储备项目，整体预计首年收益率处于7%低段的水平。

Sabra预计其现有现金、信贷设施额度以及按市价增发（ATM）所得资金，将能够支持计划中的投资直至2027年第一季度或可能至第二季度初。未来的交易预计将使用约30%至35%的债务融资，其余部分通过留存收益或增发股票筹集。

风险与关注事项

高龄者住房的资本化率在2026年面临压力，不过管理层表示随着利率上升，该压力已有所缓解。Sabra按当前市场水平测算退出资本化率，未假设资本化率收紧或扩大。

增值型SHOP投资带来了执行与稳定期考量。管理层表示，近期收购的增值型资产表现优于初始的入住率和NOI承销测算，但指出目前过程仍处于早期阶段。

由于维护、营销和管理激励成本上升，SHOP运营费用有所增加。如果Sabra收购较旧的物业，资本支出需求随着时间的推移也可能会上升；其近期收购的物业房龄通常在10年以内。

潜在的医疗政策变化可能会引发关于人员配置要求和医疗设施私人投资的讨论。管理层预计这带来的更多是新闻关注而非对日常运营的影响，并指出Sabra的投资组合整体上已经符合此前提议的联邦人员配置标准。

分析师问答环节要点

• SHOP投资组合结构：管理层对SHOP占比未设固定上限。预计到2027年底SHOP占比将接近50%，但仍打算在高龄者住房和专业护理设施之间保持多元化。
• 收购承销测算：取决于具体当地市场，稳定入住率假设通常最高在92%至93.5%之间。近期费率增长假设保持在个位数中段水平。
• 定价能力：强劲的费率增长不仅限于入住率在90%以上的社区。Sabra在入住率处于80%段的物业中也看到了高于平均水平的费率增长。
• 专业护理优化：两项与租金相关的优化机会正在谈判中，若完成，可能在2027年产生全年或接近全年的影响。
• 资产出售：管理层目前预计不会大规模出售专业护理资产。投资组合精简将继续进行，但出售资产预计仍将是一个相对较小的资金来源。
• SHOP资本支出：管理层提到，根据物业房龄的不同，每年每单位的一般经常性资本支出范围约为1,200至1,500美元。

业绩电话会议完整文字记录

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完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Good day, everyone. My name is Percy, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Sabra Health Care REIT Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]

I would now like to turn the call over to Lukas Hartwich, EVP, Finance. Please go ahead, Mr. Hartwich.

Lukas Hartwich

Thank you, and good morning. Before we begin, I want to remind you that we will be making forward-looking statements in our comments and in response to your questions concerning our expectations regarding our future financial position and results of operations, including our earnings guidance for 2026 and our expectations regarding our tenants and operators and our expectations regarding our acquisition, disposition and investment plans. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially, including the risks listed in our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, as well as in our earnings press release included as Exhibit 99.1 to the Form 8-K we furnished to the SEC yesterday.

We undertake no obligation to update our forward-looking statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances, and you should not assume later in the quarter that the comments we make today are still valid. In addition, references will be made during this call to non-GAAP financial results. Investors are encouraged to review these non-GAAP financial measures as well as the explanation and reconciliation of these measures to the comparable GAAP results included on the Financials page of the Investors section of our website at sabrahealth.com. Our Form 10-Q, earnings release and supplement can also be accessed in the Investors section of our website.

And with that, let me turn the call over to Rick Matros, CEO, President and Chair of Sabra Health Care REIT.

Rick Matros

Thanks, Lucas, and thanks, everybody, for joining us this morning. Our same-store SHOP cash NOI margins were 34.9%, which is best-in-class. Our RevPOR growth was stellar again for the quarter, along with solid cash NOI growth and occupancy increasing. We've closed on $750 million in investments to date, all of which is SHOP except for $100 million, which was skilled nursing. We have $425 million awarded and expect more to come before year-end. All of that but $24 million is SHOP. Our skilled nursing and senior housing triple net rent coverage continues to get better. As we continue to move forward towards 40% SHOP exposure going to 50% by year-end 2027, our senior housing portfolio will outweigh our skilled portfolio for the first time as that exposure drifts closer to 40%. We see no barriers that would prevent this momentum from continuing. That said, we believe it's important to have that diversity in the portfolio. As we have demonstrated, our skilled portfolio offers more earnings growth than the 2.5% escalators that we have seen historically. Our focus on optimizing rents was evident in our July announcement, and we are currently assessing other opportunities.

Additionally, as you look to our lease expirations, we expect to see rent increases in those portfolios as rents get reset to fair market given how much higher than fair market rent coverages currently are. The strategic focus that we've had will result in 7% to 8% year-over-year earnings growth at the midpoint of guidance this year. Certainly a mark we feel good about and bodes well for that portfolio's contribution to future earnings.

With that, I'll turn it over to Darrin.

Darrin Smith

Thank you, Rick. Sabra's senior housing operating portfolio had another great quarter with continued growth. The total senior housing operating portfolio, including non-stabilized communities and joint venture assets that share had sequential revenue growth of 10.3% and NOI growth of 8.5%. These statistics demonstrate sequential improvement in operating results that reflect our SHOPs continued growth and strong performance.

During the third quarter, Sabra invested $222.8 million, adding 7 SHOP communities to Sabra's portfolio. Subsequent to quarter end, Sabra invested an additional $140.7 million, adding 4 SHOP communities, bringing total year-to-date investments to over $747 million with an estimated yield of 8%. Additionally, Sabra has another $425 million of additional awarded investments, nearly all SHOP which should close in the near future. In addition to the over $1.17 billion in closed and awarded investments, Sabra has an additional $260 million of SHOP investments that we are actively pursuing.

On a year-over-year basis, Sabra added 18 SHOP communities, an 18% increase by number of assets and over 60% increase in total SHOP NOI. Deal flow shows no signs of slowing and Sabra remains competitive on new investments.

Moving on to the same-store portfolio. Sabra's same-store SHOP portfolio, including joint venture assets at share, continued its strong performance in the third quarter. The key numbers are: Revenue for the quarter grew 9.3% year-over-year with our Canadian communities growing revenue by 7% in the same period. Third quarter occupancy in our same-store portfolio was up 160 basis points to 89.2% year-over-year. Notably, our domestic portfolio occupancy increased 211 basis points to 86.9% during that period, while our Canadian portfolio grew 77 basis points to 93.9% in the same period, marking the 10th consecutive quarter where occupancy was over 90%. RevPAR in the third quarter continued to rise with an increase of 7.3% year-over-year with our Canadian portfolio increasing 6.4% in the same period.

While RevPOR and occupancy continue to grow, ExPOR increased 4.7% for the same period, providing for cash NOI growth of 14.6% on a year-over-year basis. The increase in ExPOR was driven primarily by repairs and maintenance, sales and marketing and incentive management fees, while labor continues to grow less than 3%. With over $1.17 billion in closed and award investments to date, a very robust pipeline and industry tailwinds at our backs, we should continue to see solid growth in our portfolio.

And with that, I will turn the call over to Michael Costa, Sabra's Chief Financial Officer.

Michael Costa

Thanks, Darrin. For the third quarter of 2026, we recognized normalized FFO per share of $0.39 and normalized AFFO per share of $0.41 compared to $0.38 and $0.40, respectively, in the second quarter. Year-over-year, our third quarter normalized FFO per share and normalized AFFO per share each posted an increase of 8%. Cash rental income from our triple net portfolio increased $1.2 million on a normalized basis compared to the second quarter.

Cash rental income was $93.5 million for the quarter, excluding a $10.2 million payment of deferred rents received in the quarter. On a normalized basis, our second quarter cash rental income was $92.3 million after adjusting for $1.8 million of out-of-period revenues primarily related to the Avamere rent reset. SHOP cash NOI was $48.4 million this quarter compared to $44.6 million last quarter. This increase reflects both the contribution from recent investment activity, including 7 communities added during the quarter and continued same-store occupancy gains and rate growth.

Interest and other income was $3.2 million for the quarter compared to $5.8 million in the second quarter. The decrease was primarily due to repayments of loans in the second and third quarters. Cash interest expense was $26.8 million for the quarter compared to $27.4 million in the second quarter. The decrease reflects lower borrowings under our credit facility during the period. Normalized cash G&A was $10.6 million for the quarter compared to $10.7 million last quarter.

During the quarter, we wrote off $6.2 million of straight-line rent receivables and lease intangibles, primarily due to the transitioning of the former Avamere portfolio. This amount was normalized in our quarterly results. We have updated our 2026 earnings guidance and increased the midpoint of our per share normalized FFO and normalized AFFO by $0.05. At the midpoint, this represents year-over-year per share growth of 7% for normalized FFO and 8% for normalized AFFO.

Now briefly turning to the balance sheet. Our net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio was 4.54x as of September 30, 2026, compared to 4.61x at June 30, 2026. As we have stated previously, our strategy is to naturally lower our leverage over time without sacrificing earnings growth. This quarter's results reflect that strategy in action, and it is a strategy we will continue to employ. As of September 30, 2026, we had approximately $1.2 billion of liquidity, and we're in compliance with all of our debt covenants.

In addition to $36.2 million of unrestricted cash and cash equivalents and $873.5 million of available borrowings under our revolving credit facility, we had $292.5 million related to shares outstanding under forward sales agreements under our ATM program, which consisted of 15 million shares at an initial weighted average price of $19.53 per share net of commissions. Additionally, we have $332.7 million of availability remaining under the ATM program.

During the quarter, we issued 6.5 million shares in settlement of certain outstanding forward sales agreements under our ATM program at a weighted average price of $17.89 per share, net of commissions, resulting in net proceeds of $116.2 million. These proceeds, together with cash on hand, were used to fund our investment activity during the quarter.

Finally, on November 2, 2026, Sabra's Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share of common stock. The dividend will be paid on November 30, 2026, to common stockholders of record as of the close of business on November 13, 2026. The dividend is well covered and represents a payout of 73% of our third quarter normalized AFFO per share.

And with that, we'll open up the lines for Q&A.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Juan Sanabria with BMO Capital Markets.

分析师问答

Juan Sanabria

Just curious if you could, Rick or Darrin elaborate on the, optimization in skilled nursing and maybe that includes the behavioral hospitals. Is that just rent increases upon expiration, which you touched on in the prepared remarks? Does that include further potential sales or monetizations of the assets to accelerate this transition towards SHOP NOI?

Rick Matros

Juan, thanks. So it's just skilled nursing. And there are a couple that we're currently working on. One is another transition similar to the ones that we talked about in July. And the other is a lease that's coming up in the not-too-distant future and the operators involved are interested in negotiating an extension sooner or later, and that extension would carry with it an increase in rents simply given where rent coverage is for that portfolio today and what we would normally put a new lease at for a skilled nursing operator, somewhere around 1.5%. So that's really where the upside is. And if you look at our lease expiration schedule, we've got between 2027 and 2031, we have a big chunk of leases coming up. So you should expect us to take advantage of that in the same way that we've been taking advantage of to date and again, for the same reasons. So does that answer your question, Juan?

Juan Sanabria

It does. And then just as a follow-up, if I may. Just curious if you can give a little bit more color on the fourth quarter-to-date transactions and the $400-plus million that's in process that has been agreed to in pricing and how that may have been -- how that may be changing kind of the initial and longer-term yield expectations on those acquisitions?

Rick Matros

What was the first part of the question, Juan, say again?

Juan Sanabria

The recent deals, what's closed fourth quarter to date and what's kind of pending to close and how cap rates have trended?

Darrin Smith

Sure. So this is Darrin. Economics in the current pipeline for $425 million are similar to those completed in 2026. It's a mix of stable assets and some modest value-add or upside opportunities. Unlevered IRRs continue to range in the low double digits to mid-teens. I would say that the previously closed assets had more SNF and pref equity, some higher-yielding investments. That being said, there's definitely been cap rate pressure on the senior housing side that we've seen in the industry throughout the year. However, with the rising interest rates, that pressure appears to have moderated for now.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jamie Feldman with Wells Fargo.

James Feldman

I guess along the same lines, how have you changed your underwriting assumptions with higher rates and then just with operating conditions in the business in terms of your willingness to underwrite better NOI growth or maybe weaker NOI growth and then exit cap rates as you're thinking about your own IRR outlooks?

Darrin Smith

Sure. So each -- the underwriting of each investment opportunity is very asset market specific, number one. Occupancy, we're still keeping occupancy or stabilized occupancy probably up to the 92%, maybe 93.5% range, once again, depending upon the local market. As far as rate growth is concerned, you do end up with a little bit more visibility into near-term rate growth that typically takes place January 1 as these plans are kind of implemented here later in the year. So those tend to be -- at least they have tended to be kind of in the mid-single digits for now. But as far as exit cap rates, we are basically using what we see as a cap rate -- market cap rate today. So there's no sort of cap rate compression or inflation.

Rick Matros

Yes. And we'll also -- and as we had mentioned earlier or last call or whatever, we are looking at doing more value add, and we did do a sizable value add. And when we say value add, we're not talking about operations that are destabilized. We're looking at 80% occupancy in the case of the deal that we did. That obviously brings down the overall yield, but it provides a lot more upside for us going forward. So given the volume of deal flow that we have and that we anticipate having next year, we can do those kinds of things here and there and still make it work for us with our cost of capital.

James Feldman

Okay. And then turning to Avamere. Can you just remind us how much rent remains to commence and the incremental '27 contribution that's not yet reflected in the current or current run rate?

Michael Costa

Sure. So when we did that transition effective October 1, that took the annualized rent from $48 million to $53 million. So we're only seeing the impact of that on 2026 numbers just for 3 months. That full impact is going to be seen in 2027, obviously. And actually, the increase year-over-year will be slightly higher than that because, as you recall, we did the rent reset earlier in the year. So you should expect to see year-over-year the NOI generated from that lease to be, call it, $5 million or a little bit higher than $5 million on a year-over-year basis.

James Feldman

Okay. But it sounds like it's in the full 4Q run rate?

Michael Costa

It is in the full 4Q run rate. Yes, it's in our guidance.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Farrell Granath with Bank of America.

Andrew Reale

This is Andrew Reale on with Farrell. I guess, first, just with respect to the SHOP same-store NOI guide, what sort of improved in the fourth quarter outlook to support moving the guide up to the mid-teens? Is that mainly stronger occupancy and rate trends? Or are you expecting some expense growth to moderate as well?

Rick Matros

So, it's just overall strength in the performance of the SHOP portfolio.

Darrin Smith

Yes. And I think more visibility, right, because we're talking about 2 months of forecasting here versus 9 months earlier in the year.

Andrew Reale

Okay. Maybe one on the supplement. It looks like it now shows an estimated yield figure instead of initial cash yield in the investments. Also looks like 1Q SHOP deals moved from 7.9% yield to about 9.2%. Just curious what's behind the change and what is the new yield measuring?

Darrin Smith

I mean in terms of what the new yield is measuring, I think the simplest way to put it is it's a year 1 yield other than the situations -- the limited situations like Rick articulated, where we're doing some value-add opportunities, in which case we're using a stabilized yield on that. And when we say stabilized, we're talking about, call it, year 2 once the operator is able to go in and put their strategy in place. So it's, by and large, a year 1 yield except for those select opportunities. The one thing I would say is when you kind of take a step back and you look at our total closed and awarded pipeline, the going-in yield, the year 1 yield that we're expecting is in the low 7. So even with those value-add opportunities, the going-in yield that we're expecting in year 1 is still competitive with our cost of capital.

Rick Matros

And was that the other?

Darrin Smith

Yes. And your second part of the question, can you repeat that?

Andrew Reale

No, I think you answered it. Just wondering what's behind the change, what is the measure, but I think you answered the question.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Austin Wurschmidt with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Austin Wurschmidt

Great. Just going back to the earlier question about the optimization of skilled nursing. You highlighted those 2 opportunities. Can you give us a sense of just to quantify what that upside opportunity looks like from an NOI perspective and really the timing of those taking place and how much they could contribute to '27, I guess?

Rick Matros

Not yet, we can because we're still in the process of negotiating that. And -- but I would expect that there'll be a full 2027 year impact or pretty close to it. So -- but we're just -- we're still in the process of negotiating those.

Darrin Smith

Yes. And to the extent those are completed by the time we release our fourth quarter earnings and our 2027 guidance, those will obviously be reflected in there as well.

Rick Matros

If there's a reason to do an update, say again?

Austin Wurschmidt

No, I was just going to say, is there -- could you give us a sense where the coverage ratios are for those specific leases today?

Rick Matros

They're well over 2x.

Austin Wurschmidt

Got it. And then you mentioned some SNF and preferred equity deals that you did subsequent to the third quarter. Are you seeing a larger number of skilled nursing investment opportunities? And is that something that's of interest to you to mix in with some of the SHOP investments in the awarded pipeline?

Rick Matros

No, not at all. These are off-market deals. We're not seeing any uptick in sort of traditional down the fairway triple net skilled deals. So -- and then on the prep, the prep all relates to the development that we're doing on the senior housing side with existing operating partners. And one of the reasons it works for us, where as in almost every development deal that we look at, they don't pencil. In the instances that we're doing deals, one, they're with operators that have their own in-house capabilities. Very often, they go land for a while, so the basis is low. So they're really distinct opportunities as opposed to kind of the beginnings of any trend on the development side.

Austin Wurschmidt

That's helpful data.

Rick Matros

Yes. And also, we may not wait until fourth quarter earnings to -- on the optimization stuff if we have something that we can just do a business update on before then.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Stroyeck with Green Street.

Michael Stroyeck

Can you just talk a bit about the behavioral health business? Where is coverage for that portfolio? How did that change this quarter? And maybe any color on the kind of the near-term outlook for that business would be helpful.

Rick Matros

So all we really have left, we're pretty much out of the substance abuse disorder business. We have Signature left, which is 5 site hospitals. So it's actually quite a different business. They've been a tenant since 2017. And so now they sit more -- without the substance abuse disorder business, that business fits much more aligned with our other category, which includes rehab hospitals and some acute hospitals and a couple of other things that are more specialized in nature. So the coverage, it's a much more dynamic business as is the acute hospital business. So you're going to see occupancy and coverages go up and down a little bit, but the coverage is really strong in that other category in total is closer to 4x and 3x. So we feel like we're in pretty good shape there.

In terms of the future of our relationship with Signature, as we've said in the past, this is not -- it's not RCA. They've been a reliable tenant for a long time. They'd like to own the real estate, but it's got to be compelling for us. We can't -- we're not going to -- we're not willing to take dilution to earnings in order to get a deal done there. So for right now, I'd say they'll continue to be our tenant. And that other category is now down to 10% of the total portfolio and will continue to shrink as we grow the rest of the business. So it becomes less and less impactful.

Michael Stroyeck

Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe can you provide some color on the coverage stratification you guys started disclosing this quarter? What segments or operators make up that 1 to 1.5x bucket? And are there any concerns that rent cuts could be needed on any of those assets?

Darrin Smith

No, there's no concerns that any rent cuts are needed. And I would say those buckets, it's a mix of skilled nursing and senior housing that's in there.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Wes Golladay with Baird.

Wesley Golladay

I just want to get a little bit more color on the deferred cash rent payment of over $10 million this quarter. Is that a sign of a tenant getting healthy and going back to accrual accounting?

Darrin Smith

That's actually a sign of, yes, getting healthier, but then also a transition that happened with that particular operator. And as part of that transition as part of us agreeing to that transition, combined with their stronger financial position today, we require that they repay that deferred rent, and they gladly did to make that transaction happen.

Wesley Golladay

Okay. Going to the senior housing, is the RevPAR growth broad-based? It's pretty strong, over 7%. And what is driving that? Is it just pricing power the concession burn off? Is it mix at all? Just trying to get a little bit more details on that.

Darrin Smith

Yes, it's interesting because we get the question, others get the question as well regarding pricing power. Are you going to be able to increase rates above market when you're above 90% occupancy. And while that intuitively makes sense, we're not seeing any evidence of that within our portfolio, at least not yet. There are some facilities that are over 90% occupancy that are be able to push higher rates, but we have some that are in the 80s that are be able to push higher rates as well. I think probably the one thing that we would probably chalk up the strong RevPOR growth to most significantly is acuity. And the ability of a lot of our operators to increase -- take on higher acuity residents and provide the care that they need and be able to charge those levels of care accordingly, that's having a positive contribution on the RevPOR side.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Vikram Malhotra with Mizuho.

Vikram Malhotra

I guess just maybe first one, Rick, you talked about the trajectory of SHOP. You went from 20 to 40 now pro forma, I guess, 50. I'm just wondering like where do you see this ultimately shaking out? Meaning, at what point do you say like we've had enough SHOP growth. Now you just referenced cap rates coming in, perhaps taking more value add. So you have like a good balance. You have these rent resets all adding to growth next year. By just my math, you should be at least 6%, 7% FFO growth with everything you've done. So I'm just wondering, bigger picture, like how big do you grow the SHOP platform? And how much more risk do you take in terms of value add?

Rick Matros

Well, I think we don't view ourselves taking risk on value add. It's funny how everything changes. Now that people are thinking about occupancy in the 90s, all of a sudden 80%, which is actually quite stabilized. It's viewed as not stabilized. But if you're at 80%, you've got a good operator in there and a good asset, there's not much risk there. So we'd like to do more of that. In terms of our SHOP exposure overall, our focus is on growing earnings, and we're going to follow where the opportunities are. So right now, the predominant opportunities are in SHOP, and that's why we're anticipating 12 months out, we'll be closer to 50% SHOP and closer to 40% skilled nursing. We're happy to do more skilled nursing, and we can do both. So if the SHOP opportunities remain what they are and there are more skilled nursing opportunities, we're just going to do both. So we're not sort of putting any parameters on how much SHOP we want to have or how much skilled nursing we want to have. We want to have a very well-balanced portfolio. We like the idea of having more SHOP than skilled. But as we all know, for those of us that are -- have been around for a pretty long time, the outlook is great for both SHOP and skilled. But life happens and stuff happens, and we just don't want to have everything. We don't want to make a bet just on one asset class only, particularly with the contributions that we're getting out of the skilled portfolio now. And as I mentioned earlier, if you look at our lease expiration schedule, we're going to have outsized contributions from our skilled portfolio through the end of the expiration -- the lease expiration schedule in 2031. So that's a good place, I think, for us to be. So does that answer your question, Vikram?

Vikram Malhotra

That's helpful. I guess just a bigger picture question. We'll see what the midterm outcome is today. But I'm wondering like are there any specific states you're watching from a -- is there any Medicaid growth implications or even bigger picture, like if there's a blue wave versus not, like any thoughts around what that may mean for skilled and the reimbursement landscape?

Rick Matros

Yes. Sure. So if the chambers are split with the Republicans holding the Senate and DEMS getting the House, I don't think there'll be much change if or much of a fight over anything. If the DEMS win both the Senate and the House, they've already put this paper together. It's like 81 pages on health care overall, and there's some stuff in there that we like with the workforce investments. And it's not just about long-term care, by the way, it's about the entire health care space. We would expect that there may be things coming up like staffing again or private investment in health care facilities. So that kind of stuff will bubble up again. When we beat those things down in the past, we did it with bipartisan support. Not everybody sees it that way on the DEM side. So we feel pretty comfortable with it. There'll be probably a little bit more noise about it if the DEMS win the Senate as well, I think, is probably the best way to put it.

The other thing I'd point out is -- to remind everybody, every state that we're in has staffing mandates currently. And that the, the staffing mandate that was originally recommended at the federal level was one that Sabra in the aggregate already met. So it's just not a concern. So I think it's going to be more noise and headlines than actual impact on the day-to-day business.

Vikram Malhotra

Okay. Great. And then, sorry, just if I can clarify one thing. Assuming this trajectory continues and you're headed to then pro forma, let's say, 60% SHOP, meaning in terms of acquisitions next year. Just remind us like capital available to fund incremental deals into 1Q '27? And then what your order of preference would be? Like would you be doing more disposition? Would you use leverage? Just remind us sort of the preference for funding all of this?

Michael Costa

Yes. I mean, in terms of financing, I think between our cash on hand, availability on our line of credit and what we've raised on the ATM, we have enough capital to close everything we need to close through early '27, call it, Q1 or even early Q2 of '27. And then going forward, I think when you look at investment opportunities that come our way, we would look to fund them similarly, use our credit facility to fund the debt portion of it, call it, 30% to 35% -- and the rest would come from either retained earnings or from raising equity in the ATM or even the traditional ways if there's enough volume to do so. From the disposition side, look, you're always going to have some level of dispositions. I think that's something every company should be doing and looking at their portfolio and pruning it off periodically. I wouldn't expect it to be of a meaningful volume. It's not going to be of a volume that's going to allow us to fund our existing -- our entire pipeline or anything like that, but it will be part of the equation, but albeit a small part of it.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Seth Bergey with Citi.

Seth Bergey

I guess I just wanted to go back to kind of the pipeline and how much of kind of the awarded pipeline is either off-market or from existing operators that are kind of already with you?

Darrin Smith

Sure. So the off-market transactions we've been doing through the beginning of the year, we've been averaging about 30% off-market. And then as far as existing operators, we're only changing operators in about 35% of the total closed and awarded opportunities. So 65% of the incumbent operator will be staying in place.

Rick Matros

And by the way, last year, we had almost no off-market deals, and we've intentionally developed relationships where we can do more off-market. So we jumped from about 0% to 30% just in the last year.

Seth Bergey

Great. And then maybe going back to some of your earlier comments around occupancy and 90%, how should we kind of think about kind of the operating leverage and the incremental margin flow-through as you kind of achieve higher occupancy within some of the more stabilized assets?

Rick Matros

So where occupancy currently is, you're going to see a minimum 50% pull-through to the margin. As you get to 92% and 93%, that's going to grow probably to 70-plus percent. There's just not that much more cost associated with bringing in just a few extra residents. So those are probably good numbers. But we've already -- to be clear, we've already surpassed the operating leverage mark. So that pull-through has already started to happen, which is really one of the reasons that we've got sector high cash NOI margins.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Dave Rogers with Raymond James.

David Rodgers

I think you addressed this maybe a couple of questions ago but maybe ask it in a different way. 40-some-odd percent of your skilled expirations are kind of after 2035. And I think Ensign has been out there desiring to buy some assets out of their REIT partner portfolios. I don't know if they've approached you or not, but how do you think about some of the long-dated SNF assets and maybe offloading some of those continue to accelerate the growth in the company overall, but keep some of the near-term opportunities that you mentioned earlier in the call?

Rick Matros

Yes. At this point, we feel like we've pretty much cleaned the portfolio of anything that we didn't want to retain on the skilled side. So we'll see what the environment looks like. But as we sit here today, I wouldn't anticipate any material dispositions with our skilled operators. I mean the space has such a nice runway ahead of it. But the environment may change over the next couple of years. We've got time, obviously, to make those judgments. We're not having those conversations with anybody right now kind of to answer your question about that with Ensign. So we'll see. We'll be open-minded about it.

David Rodgers

And then just a quick follow-up on the leased senior housing portfolio. Any opportunities there as well for rent resets, transitions to manage anything like that, that would benefit you as well?

Rick Matros

We've pretty much done as much as can be done there. If there's any other opportunity, it's going to be incremental. So basically, that piece of the portfolio, which is down to about 7% of our NOI right now are legacy operators that like everybody else kind of went through hell during the pandemic. They're doing really well now. They're good operators. And so they're content with where things are. We're happy to have them as operators. We're not going to force them out of the portfolio just because they're triple net. So you're just going to see that number continue to shrink as a percent.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Juan Sanabria with BMO Capital Markets.

Juan Sanabria

Just curious on the SHOP side of the business, how you're thinking about costs as a result of your tech and data initiatives and how you think about export trending from here?

Michael Costa

So in terms of the costs that we're incurring at the corporate side, I mean, I think it's really incremental in the grand scheme of things. We're making investments today. We have a lot of the infrastructure already in place, adding to it incrementally, as I mentioned. So I don't see that as being anything that's going to meaningfully move the needle. From a cost perspective, obviously, from an efficiency perspective, we fully believe that to be the case on the corporate side as we continue to take on more operators, as we continue to expand that portfolio. The initiatives that are happening at the facility level, I think is more -- speaks more to your question in terms of export. Look, I think all those initiatives are done with an eye towards making operations more efficient, whether that's on the housekeeping side, whether that is on the caretaker side, whatever it may be, it's all with an eye towards improving the efficiency and the ultimate delivery of care there.

Juan Sanabria

And just one last one for me. There was a mention of kind of value-add investment opportunities. So just curious on how you guys think about CapEx for the SHOP business on a per unit per year basis, presumably those may be having some deferred CapEx. And any thoughts about why you guys don't include SHOP CapEx now that SHOP is 40% of the business in your FAD calc? I think most of the peers do that.

Michael Costa

I mean in terms of the FAD calc years ago, we decided we didn't want to put FAD in our supplement or anywhere else just because the SEC prohibits you from showing it on a per share basis. Now with that said, as we talked about before, the numbers are all there, right? We do disclose what our recurring CapEx is. We disclose what our nonrecurring CapEx. So the math is all there if somebody really wants to calculate what FAD is on an apples-to-apples basis with a competitor or a peer of ours, I should say. We just don't want to disclose it because we can't show it on a per share basis. That's simply it.

Rick Matros

And in terms of CapEx spending, right now, everything that we've been buying is less than 10 years old, including the value-add stuff. So there's not much in the way of meaningful CapEx spend. I think it's reasonable to assume as time goes by and the amount of newer assets kind of dwind us a little bit, you'll pick up some older assets and that will require more CapEx spend going forward.

Juan Sanabria

And then the rule of thumb, I guess, on how much you guys think is the appropriate amount to spend on a per unit per year basis?

Michael Costa

Yes. It depends on the age of the property, but it's, I guess, rule of thumb is around 1,200 to 1,500.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Goldsmith with UBS.

Michael Goldsmith

Maybe sticking with value-add SHOP investments that you've already closed. Can you give us an update on how those assets are actually tracking relative to the original underwriting? And are you still comfortable with that 1 to 2-year stabilization time line and roughly 9% stabilized yield?

Michael Costa

Yes. So the -- they are actually performing ahead of underwriting and projections, both from an occupancy perspective and an NOI. So it's still early days, but so far, so good.

Michael Goldsmith

Got it. And then just to clarify the comment made earlier, I think, around that when you get to 90% occupancy, you get pricing power and you're not seeing it. Are you -- was the purpose of that comment to suggest that you're seeing pricing power before you hit 90% occupancy? Just wanted to clarify that.

Michael Costa

I mean the comment was more directly around the 7-plus percent RevPOR growth we saw this quarter wasn't because our portfolio is over 90%. We're seeing facilities that have occupancy in the 80s being able to drive higher-than-average rate growth, right? So it's not directly correlated today. It's not directly correlated with being over some occupancy threshold. That's it.

Rick Matros

Right. So once you get into the lower 90s, I think is an intuitive assumption. It seems that everybody's part that there will be pricing power. And there may be, we're not saying there won't be. We're just not there yet on occupancy. So the fact that our RevPOR has been as strong as it's been, it's not just this quarter, by the way, without that bodes really well going forward.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Austin Wurschmidt with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Austin Wurschmidt

I just wanted to go back to something discussed on the first quarter call around the landmark assets that were intended to be sold. Where does that stand? Has anything been completed on that front? I'm just looking for a general update.

Rick Matros

Yes. Thanks for that stuff has gone. There's a couple left that are dwindling out, and that's kind of rounding.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I would now turn the call back to Rick Matros for closing remarks.

Rick Matros

Thanks for your time today. I appreciate your continued support, and we look forward to seeing a lot of you at NAREIT in a few weeks. Take care.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.