XPLR基础设施 (XIFR) 2026年第三季度业绩电话会：2027年业绩指引及风电风险

核心要点

• XPLR Infrastructure公布2026年第三季度调整后EBITDA约为4.71亿美元，增长前自由现金流为1.64亿美元。
• 现有项目推动调整后EBITDA同比增加约4900万美元，增长前自由现金流同比增加2400万美元，主要得益于风资源状况趋于正常以及净运营费用改善。
• 管理层目前预计2026年全年调整后EBITDA将处于此前指引区间的中下半段，增长前自由现金流将处于或接近此前指引区间的下限。
• 对于2027年，公司预计调整后EBITDA为15.6亿至17.0亿美元，增长前自由现金流为5.25亿至6.00亿美元。
• 2026年计划的再供电工作已完成约85%。此外，XPLR在8月和10月期间出售了约400兆瓦的并网资产及权益。
• XPLR于10月偿付了2026年到期的剩余约3300万美元无担保债券，使得2026年余下时间不再有公司债务到期。

关键财务数据

第三季度的同比比较还反映了2025年9月完成的资产处置影响。增长前自由现金流承受压力，原因在于税收权益投资者带来的收益减少、与2025年再供电项目相关的项目融资成本增加，以及对2025年3月发行的约17.5亿美元无担保债券所支付的公司利息增加。

业务与运营业绩

XPLR已完成2026年计划再供电工作的约85%。管理层表示，剩余工作正在推进中，预计将提升资产组合的长期价值。

该公司于7月与NextEra Energy Resources组建了首批两个电池储能合资企业。此外，公司还在8月和10月完成了约400兆瓦额外并网资产及权益的出售。

其中约200兆瓦的出售与电池储能协议相关，预计所得资金将用于资助XPLR在四个储能项目中的部分净股权投资。另外约200兆瓦的出售所得资金预计将用于支持对基础项目的再投资。

管理层表示，XPLR拥有数吉瓦的富余并网容量。在估值和资本配置收益具有吸引力的情况下，公司计划评估进一步的直接出售和共同投资结构。

在现有协议到期前，XPLR还在与潜在交易对手协商合同展期和优化事宜。管理层指出，尽管这些机会对2027年指引的贡献有限，但有望提升长期项目经济效益和增长前自由现金流。

管理层指引

管理层预计2026年全年调整后EBITDA将处于此前指引区间的中下半段。增长前自由现金流预计将处于或接近此前指引区间的下限。

调整后的展望反映了西部地区风能和太阳能资源低于预期，而XPLR在该地区签署了价值更高的购电协议。展望还假设受厄尔尼诺现象影响，2026年余下时间的风资源将至少减少3%。管理层估计，在2026年剩余时间内，全风电场发电量每变动1%，将对调整后EBITDA产生400万至600万美元的影响。

对于2027年，XPLR预计：

• 调整后EBITDA为15.6亿至17.0亿美元。
• 增长前自由现金流为5.25亿至6.00亿美元。

指引下限包含了风资源偏弱对调整后EBITDA约3200万美元以及对增长前自由现金流约2500万美元的潜在影响。管理层表示，这假设与厄尔尼诺相关的风力发电量下降约5.8%至6%，且主要集中在2027年第一季度。

管理层指出，某些资产生产税收抵免资格的到期是导致预期的2027年调整后EBITDA下滑的主要原因。随着税收权益结构到期，XPLR在项目现金流中的份额增加并简化了所有权结构，这一影响得到了部分抵消。

根据目前的展望，管理层预计2028年增长前自由现金流将与2027年保持一致。

风险与关注事项

• 短期风能和太阳能的波动性可能会对发电量和营收产生实质性影响，尤其是当发电量偏低发生在签署了高价合同的地区时。
• 厄尔尼诺现象可能会在2026年剩余时间以及2027年初减少风资源。
• 更新后的2026年展望已纳入更高的运营和维护费用。
• 生产税收抵免资格到期预计将减少2027年列报的调整后EBITDA。
• 更高的项目融资成本和公司利息支出仍是增长前自由现金流面临的阻力。
• 长期业绩部分取决于对运营和维护成本的控制以及合同优化机会的执行。

分析师问答要点

管理层表示，富余的并网权益代表了组合中内嵌的期权价值，目前虽然不产生现金流，但随着时间的推移可以实现变现。潜在途径包括直接出售以及与NextEra Energy Resources开展电池储能共同投资。

关于某些项目保留的资金，管理层表示，这些资金将用于抵扣此前计划的场站控制和通信基础设施升级费用，而不是资助新增的支出项目。

关于税收权益，管理层解释称，预计的2027年调整后EBITDA影响是一个净额，其中包含了再供电贡献和生产税收抵免增长机制的抵消作用。自由现金流受到的影响较小，因为它仅包含第三方税收权益分配后由XPLR保留的税收抵免经济利益。

管理层将近期西部地区发电量偏弱定性为短期资源波动，而非结构性问题。长期预期普遍基于正常天气假设，而近期指引则纳入了最新的厄尔尼诺预测。

业绩电话会议完整文字记录

完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the XPLR Infrastructure Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Kanghee Jeon, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Kanghee Jeon

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our third quarter 2026 financial results conference call for XPLR Infrastructure. With me this morning are Alan Liu, President and Chief Executive Officer of XPLR Infrastructure; and Jessica Geoffroy, Chief Financial Officer of XPLR Infrastructure. Alan will walk through our business highlights, and Jessica will provide an overview of our financial results. After that, our executive team will be available to answer your questions.

On this call, we'll be making forward-looking statements based on current expectations and assumptions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from our forward-looking statements if any of our key assumptions are incorrect or because of other factors discussed in today's earnings news release, in the comments made during this conference call, in the Risk Factors section of the accompanying presentation or in our latest reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, each of which can be found on our website, www.xplrinfrastructure.com. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statements.

Today's presentation also includes references to non-GAAP financial measures. You should refer to the information contained in the slides accompanying today's presentation for definitional information and reconciliations of historical non-GAAP measures to the closest GAAP financial measure.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Alan.

Alan Liu

Thank you, Kanghee. Good morning, everyone. Since our last update, the XPLR team has continued to make progress across our key priorities. With repowering, execution remains on track. To date, we have completed approximately 85% of our planned repowerings for 2026. The remaining program is progressing and is expected to enhance the long-term value of our portfolio.

We also remain focused on our previously announced interconnection sales and battery storage co-investment agreement with NextEra Energy Resources. The first two joint ventures formed in July, and we'll continue to work on the remaining projects contemplated under the agreement. XPLR also completed the sales of approximately 400 megawatts of additional interconnection assets and rights to NextEra Energy Resources in August and October. Approximately 200 megawatts were sold in connection with the agreement with proceeds expected to fund a portion of XPLR's net equity investment in the four battery storage projects. Proceeds from the sale of the remaining approximately 200 megawatts are expected to support reinvestment in the underlying projects.

We continue to evaluate opportunities for monetization of interconnection assets and rights where they make economic sense. We view these transactions as an important example of the optionality embedded within our existing portfolio. We are leveraging existing interconnection assets and rights that are already part of our asset base to unlock incremental value and to redeploy capital across the portfolio, including to support reinvestment and incremental investment in storage, while maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation and balance sheet management.

We also continue to execute on our previously outlined financial plan by retiring the remaining approximately $33 million balance of our 2026 unsecured notes in October, leaving us with no remaining corporate debt maturities in 2026. Alongside this progress, we are seeing opportunities to enhance the value of our existing assets through contract optimization.

While we expect this opportunity to grow over time as more legacy contracts approach expiration, we are engaging with potential counterparties across multiple markets and evaluating opportunities to extend or optimize contracts where market conditions support attractive economics. We are seeing increasing interest in customers and beginning these discussions well ahead of contract expiration as they evaluate their longer-term power needs. We will remain disciplined in evaluating these opportunities. Our objective is not simply to extend contracts, but to pursue opportunities that can enhance the long-term economics and free cash flow before growth profile of the underlying assets.

With that, let me turn it over to Jessica.

Jessica Geoffroy

Thank you, Alan, and good morning, everyone. Let's turn to XPLR's detailed results. For the third quarter of 2026, XPLR's portfolio generated approximately $471 million in adjusted EBITDA and $164 million in free cash flow before growth.

Existing projects delivered a year-over-year increase of roughly $49 million in adjusted EBITDA and $24 million in free cash flow before growth, primarily reflecting more normalized wind resource compared with the prior year period and a favorable year-over-year comparison on net operating expenses. For free cash flow before growth, these benefits were partially offset by a decline in proceeds from tax equity investors and higher project financing costs related to the funding of our 2025 repowering program.

In addition, results for both adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow before growth reflect the impact of asset dispositions completed in September 2025. Free cash flow before growth was further impacted by higher corporate interest payments on the approximately $1.75 billion of unsecured notes issued in March 2025. Specifically, current quarter results reflect the full semiannual interest payments on those notes, whereas the payments in the prior year comparable quarter included only partial period of related interest expense.

Turning to our financial expectations for 2026. As we approach year-end, we have greater clarity on our full year outlook. We now expect full year adjusted EBITDA to finish in the lower half of our prior guidance range and full year free cash flow before growth to come in at or near the low end of the prior guidance range. There are a number of factors impacting our updated outlook for this year. While average wind and solar resource has been strong across the fleet overall this year, it has been weaker than expected in the West region. Unfavorable generation in the West creates more significant energy revenue reduction because the region contains higher value PPA contracts on a dollar per megawatt hour basis.

Looking to the balance of the year, our outlook also reflects expectations for at least 3% lower wind resource related to El Niño weather conditions. As a reminder, a 1% deviation in wind production across the fleet equates to $4 million to $6 million of adjusted EBITDA for the balance of 2026. In addition, we have incorporated slightly higher expectations for net operating and maintenance expenses for the rest of the year.

Today, we are also introducing our financial expectations for 2027. We expect adjusted EBITDA of $1.56 billion to $1.70 billion and free cash flow before growth of $525 million to $600 million. In establishing these ranges, we have considered a range of potential resource outcomes. The lower end of the ranges contemplates the potential impact from lower wind resource related to El Niño weather conditions anticipated in the first half of next year.

The primary driver of the expected step down in adjusted EBITDA for 2027 as compared to 2026 is the expiration of tax credit eligibility for certain assets within the existing portfolio. The anticipated roll-off of production tax credits reflects the normal maturation of our renewable energy portfolio. These credits were largely allocated to third-party tax equity investors, whose investments provided upfront financing for the projects. As the associated tax equity arrangements mature and investors achieve their targeted returns, we expect to benefit from simplified ownership structures and an increased share of project cash flows, partially offsetting the reduction in reported adjusted EBITDA.

For free cash flow before growth in 2027, the net expected impact from tax credit changes is roughly $25 million. This impact is less than for adjusted EBITDA because free cash flow before growth only reflects the portion of tax credit economics retained by XPLR and its unitholders after tax equity allocations. The year-over-year change in free cash flow before growth also reflects approximately $20 million higher net interest expense.

Looking ahead to 2028, based on our current outlook, we expect free cash flow before growth to be in line with 2027. Beyond that, we believe the underlying characteristics of the business support a durable free cash flow profile over the longer term, with several factors that could create upside from the existing portfolio. We anticipate continued benefits from investments under our existing capital plan as more projects come online.

The portfolio is also well positioned to capitalize on recontracting opportunities that we expect may emerge over the coming years. At the same time, delivering on this performance requires us to continue managing operations and maintenance costs and running the portfolio efficiently. As always, our expectations assume our usual caveats.

In summary, we continue to operate a large diversified portfolio of contracted infrastructure assets that generate meaningful free cash flow before growth. We are executing against the priorities we have previously laid out and are maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation and balance sheet management. Looking ahead, our focus remains on strong execution, maintaining financial flexibility, and pursuing opportunities that can enhance the long-term value of the portfolio for XPLR unitholders.

That concludes our prepared remarks, and we will now open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Jefferies.

分析师问答

Anuhea Elliott

This is Anuhea Elliott on for Julien. So following the roughly 400 megawatts of interconnection asset and rights sale completed this year, could you just help quantify the remaining interconnection monetization opportunity across the portfolio? I guess, should we view these additional proceeds as recurring support for battery co-investments and project reinvestment? Or were these transactions more opportunistic?

Alan Liu

I appreciate that question. As we've noted before, XPLR owns multiple gigawatts of surplus interconnections, so we view these as embedded options within the portfolio. They are assets that don't generate cash today and can be over time monetized. And so we're going to continue to evaluate opportunities to monetize these where they make sense. As you've seen, we've demonstrated there's multiple pathways to monetizing them, including the battery storage co-investment opportunity that we've negotiated and collaborated with NEER. We've certainly pursued direct sales where that makes more sense. And so yes, we are going to continue to evaluate opportunities to monetize these assets.

Anuhea Elliott

Great. And then I guess my second question, for 2027 guidance, what brings you guys to the high and low end of the range, particularly with regard to what's assumed for the El Niño impact? You mentioned that you expect lower wind resources, but I guess any other color on the magnitude of that?

Jessica Geoffroy

Sure. It's Jessica. So for 2027, we did give specific sensitivities for lower wind resource on the El Niño front. So we incorporated into the lower end of the range for adjusted EBITDA, approximately $32 million potential impact and $25 million potential impact on the free cash flow before growth side. That equates to roughly 6% lower wind estimate that we have for El Niño in the first half of next year. In the first quarter. Sorry.

Operator

The next question comes from Nelson Ng from RBC Capital Markets.

Nelson Ng

Jessica, just to clarify, so on your El Niño assumptions, like obviously, you baked in some caution for Q4 of this year, but you're expecting from your guidance perspective that El Niño last from Q4 of this year through to Q1 and kind of stops there?

Jessica Geoffroy

Well, we said in the script, right, recall in my prepared remarks, we said in the first half of next year. The number that I quoted the $25 million is an assumption of roughly 5.8% lower wind resource concentrated in the first quarter of next year. Again, these are the best estimates we have at this time for both 2026 and 2027. The portfolio is subject to short-term resource variability, but those are the sort of best numbers that we have at this time in terms of estimate for El Niño impact.

Nelson Ng

Okay. Got it. And then next question just relates to the allocation of the proceeds from the interconnection sales. I know it's not a big number, but $12 million of the proceeds are being allocated to reinvestments in the underlying projects. Can you just clarify whether we should think of this as like organic growth CapEx? Or are you funding some like major maintenance or refurbishment that's needed in some of the underlying projects?

Alan Liu

Nelson, it's Alan. We had some planned upgrades to site controls and communications infrastructure at some of these projects. And so they were already in the plan. The opportunity that came up and to answer an earlier question, it was opportunistic to monetize the surplus interconnects at a attractive valuation. And money, once you've converted that option into cash, it's fungible. We're just planning on leaving the cash at the projects to offset the spending that was already planned.

Nelson Ng

Okay. Got it. And then just one last question. In terms of your guidance, like does the repowering plans and also, I know like the contract expirations are pretty limited in the next year or so. But does that have much of an impact on your guidance for next year? Or is it very incremental?

Alan Liu

In terms of the guidance, it's incremental, but we are bullish on this front. As we mentioned in the remarks, we are seeing traction in customer dialogue of people willing to engage with us on potential recontracting, reoptimization of the existing contracts well in advance of where the existing contract expires. So we're optimistic on this front. And so that we do think that there is incremental opportunity over the next couple of years.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Anthony Crowdell from Mizuho.

Anthony Crowdell

Just hopefully, two quick questions. One on the tax equity roll-off. You said maturing tax equity gives you a larger share of the project cash flows. So how much of the '27 tax credit hit does that offset? And does that offset grow in '28?

Jessica Geoffroy

Yes. It's Jessica. So if you take a look at that $170 million number on adjusted EBITDA for the 2027 guidance versus 2026, that's a net number. So that's not directly, "Hey, here's the eligibility roll-off specifically for tax credits that came off assets that were expiring from their 10-year period." It's inclusive of the offset on repowering contributions and PTC escalators. So the net impact on adjusted EBITDA accounts for that.

On free cash flow for growth, right, you have a smaller number and a small variability, but you have adjustments for PAYGOs that change as tax equities come off. And then as there are tax equity investors who are effectively bought out of the structure through the allocation of tax credits, then they no longer get that small share of cash flows from the projects that they were getting. So all of that is baked into the expectations in those categories that we've laid out.

Anthony Crowdell

Great. And then just, I think you may have already hit it just on the weak west wind and solar, I think hit your higher-priced PPAs in '26. Is that only weather? Or is there something structural that may impact on your '27?

Alan Liu

I think that was more recent experience in 2026 that Jessica was referring to, right? If you think about our assets in California and WECC, generally much higher PPAs and SVP contracts, right, or contracts. And so this is a reflection of the fact that in the short term, you're going to have variability and it isn't always a direct correlation of overall megawatt hours to how it reflects on revenue, right? It's kind of dependent on which region is impacted by the megawatt hours.

Again, short term, you'll see this variability over the long term, these things even out. And as we provide expectations going forward, generally, we're assuming normal weather. It's just that as we look at El Niño and the information we're seeing, particularly as we're getting up-to-date reports every week on kind of the balance of the year, we felt it was prudent to start to incorporate some of that into the expectations in the short term.

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session, and the conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.