自由全球 (LBTYA) 2026年第三季度业绩电话会：Ziggo分拆与VMO2成本削减

核心要点

• Liberty Global表示，免税拆分Ziggo Group的计划仍按既定目标推进，预计将于2027年第二季度完成。向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）和荷兰金融市场管理局（AFM）提交的初始保密招股书预计将于2026年12月完成。
• 目前预计Ziggo Group的协同效应将远超10亿欧元，其中包括超过7亿美元的税务资产。管理层继续以2028年实现4.5倍杠杆率和约5亿美元的自由现金流为目标。
• Virgin Media O2规划在2027年实现4亿英镑的年化成本节省，到2029年增加至8亿英镑。该计划包括裁员30%以及精简运营架构。
• VodafoneZiggo自2024年以来首次恢复营收增长。宽带净增用户数达到1.2万，创下七年多来的最佳季度表现，而后付费移动净增用户数为3.1万。
• Liberty Global在第三季度回购了1亿美元的股票，注销了公司2.9%的股份。视市场情况而定，公司拟在第四季度再完成1亿美元的回购。
• 截至季度末，集团公司现金约为20亿美元，而Liberty Growth投资组合的公允价值约为29亿美元。假设完成全部2亿美元的回购计划，年底集团公司现金目标为18亿美元。

关键财务数据

业务与运营表现

Ziggo Group与荷兰市场

VodafoneZiggo录得1.2万宽带净增用户和3.1万后付费移动净增用户。尽管前端新客定价有所降低，但在价格指数化调整和ESPN附加费的支撑下，固定业务ARPU增长了1%。

该公司推出了支持4 Gbps和8 Gbps服务的DOCSIS 4技术。管理层表示，该技术最终可覆盖800万户家庭，且成本比在荷兰市场建设光纤低约10倍。

VodafoneZiggo铁塔资产的出售预计即将完成，将产生6.7亿欧元的总收益。管理层表示，该交易将助力去杠杆。计划中的Wyre股权减持预计也将使Telenet的杠杆率降至4.5倍。

Telenet新增了约4000名宽带客户和4000名住宅移动客户。随着其5G和数字化升级计划接近尾声，资本支出正在下降。

Virgin Media O2与英国市场

VMO2报告宽带和移动净流失户数在环比和同比方面均有所改善。移动ARPU有所上升，而固定业务ARPU因促销强度大以及采取主动留客定价策略仍持续承压。

这项新的转型计划旨在到2027年实现4亿英镑的年化成本削减，到2029年达到8亿英镑。VMO2还计划裁员30%，并将资本重新配置到更高回报的项目中。

VMO2已停止在其资产负债表上开展进一步的光纤建设。取而代之的是，它计划在2027年将其近70%的HFC网络升级至2 Gbps的网速。管理层表示，业务可以继续在其现有的覆盖约900万户家庭的光纤网络（包括Nexfibre）上销售服务，并在具备经济吸引力的情况下利用第三方网络。

管理层表示，VMO2不会在英国部署DOCSIS 4，因为其管道化网络使得DOCSIS 4升级的成本与新建光纤相当。该公司将继续投资移动业务，目前5G独立组网覆盖率已接近90%。

资本配置与资产负债表

Liberty Global表示，其集团母公司资产负债表无债务。管理层目前无意向其电信运营公司注入集团现金，并称这些运营公司自由现金流为正且能独立融资。

扣除预期的非核心资产处置后，该公司预计VodafoneZiggo或Telenet的信贷实体在2029年前均无重大到期债务。管理层还指出，VMO2在2029年前也无到期债务，尽管其杠杆率高于4倍至5倍的目标区间。

管理层业绩指引

• Liberty Global重申，Ziggo Group的拆分计划定于2027年第二季度进行，但需视公司控制范围之外的事项而定。
• 管理层继续以2028年实现Ziggo Group约5亿美元的自由现金流和4.5倍杠杆率为目标。预计将在2027年第一季度的资本市场日提供详细的拆解说明。
• VodafoneZiggo管理层预计，在完成预算编制程序的前提下，其商业经营的改善将于2027年开始对EBITDA形成支撑。
• VMO2预计2027年实现4亿英镑的年化成本节省，到2029年增加至8亿英镑。
• Liberty Global的其他2026年指引指标均按计划推进。公司正在评估VMO2计划在2026年进行的股东分红，并预计在2027年第一季度发布全年业绩时提供最新情况。
• 假设完成总计2亿美元的股票回购，预计截至2026年底集团公司现金约为18亿美元。

风险与关注领域

英国仍是一个充满挑战的运营市场，管理层指出了激烈的固网价格竞争、较低的移动定价以及来自替代光纤运营商和移动虚拟网络运营商（MVNO）的压力。

英国竞争与市场管理局（CMA）的中期报告给拟议的Netomnia交易带来了不确定性。Liberty Global表示，公司仍致力于推进该交易，并预计最终报告将于2026年12月中旬左右发布。审查结果还将影响有关VMO2计划股东分红的决策。

VMO2的杠杆率高于公司4倍至5倍的目标区间。管理层预计将在发布2026年第四季度业绩前后提供有关去杠杆和再融资计划的更多细节，同时强调2029年之前无债务到期。

VodafoneZiggo和Telenet必须实现运营改善、资本支出削减和计划中的协同效应，Ziggo Group才能达成其2028年的杠杆率和自由现金流目标。

分析师问答环节亮点

• 英国光纤战略：管理层表示，停止资产负债表内的光纤建设并不妨碍VMO2批发其现有的光纤网络，或租赁第三方基础设施来扩大其可覆盖范围。
• VMO2营收前景：管理层未假设英国市场在短期内会复苏。其中期计划旨在通过商业举措和成本削减来稳定营收，并实现可持续的运营自由现金流增长。
• 资产出售：Liberty Global对在适当情况下将铁塔、HFC或光纤资产变现持开放态度，但尚未宣布任何新增交易。
• Ziggo Group去杠杆：管理层表示，高于此前预期的协同效应、EBITDA改善以及Telenet资本支出的减少，为在2028年迈向4.5倍杠杆率和5亿美元自由现金流铺平了道路。
• VodafoneZiggo商业策略：在恢复宽带用户正增长后，该公司计划通过高速率套餐层级、产品优化以及从现有客户群体中获取额外收入，来平衡客户增长与单户收益提升。
• CMA审查流程：Liberty Global已请求出具一份补充中期报告，并主张BT对TalkTalk的收购要求CMA重新评估其对英国市场的底层假设。

业绩电话会议完整文字记录

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完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Liberty Global's Third Quarter 2026 Investor Call. This call and the associated webcast are the property of Liberty Global and any redistribution, retransmission or rebroadcast of this call or webcast in any form without the express written consent of Liberty Global is strictly prohibited.

[Operator Instructions]

Today's formal presentation materials can be found under the Investor Relations section of Liberty Global's website at libertyglobal.com. After today's formal presentation, instructions will be given for questions. Page 2 of the slides details the company's safe harbor statement regarding forward-looking statements. Today's presentation may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including the company's expectations with respect to its outlook and future growth prospects and other information and statements that are not historical facts. These forward-looking statements involve certain risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these statements. These risks include those detailed in Liberty Global's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including its most recently filed forms 10-Q and 10-K as amended.

Liberty Global disclaims any obligation to update any of these forward-looking statements reflect any change in its expectations or in the conditions on which any such statement is based. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Mike Fries.

Michael Fries

All right. Welcome. Good afternoon or good morning wherever you may be. We certainly appreciate you dialing in to our third quarter call. I've got the broader team with me for Q&A, as I usually do, but I'm going to jump right in with prepared remarks that largely track the investor deck that we've put together for you.

Hopefully, you're following along there on Slide 4. And we continue to lead with this slide because we think it helps both frame our current operating model and separate us from other European telecom platforms. The first point here is at Liberty Global itself, is an operator and investor across both telecom and other growth sectors with $2 billion in cash, no debt and a nearly breakeven corporate cost center. Second, we set the top 2 unique asset groups. The telecom portfolio, you know well, national champions, where our primary focus has been and remains on unlocking equity value for shareholders. You know the playbook, right? We delivered with the Sunrise spin-off, which now trades at an equivalent of around $11 per Liberty share. It has paid dividends totaling $600 million since its Swiss listing in November 2024. As you know, we remain focused on doing the exact same thing next year with the newly created Ziggo Group in the Benelux.

Meanwhile, [indiscernible] O2 in the U.K. announced today a new strategic plan that will radically reduce cost and simplify its operating model to drive growth and cash generation. So more on both of these developments in a moment. But we also control a portfolio of growth assets, reasonably valued by external parties at $2.9 billion, where 2/3s of that value resides in 5 clear investments.

Two things to remember about this portfolio: First, we have a track record of realizing fair value for these investments typically at or above the marks you see each quarter in our filings. Just in the last 5 years alone, we've exited investments in this portfolio trailing approximately $2 billion, nearly all of them with positive return to shareholders; and then secondly, this growth portfolio has largely funded itself as we've recycled that $2 billion of cash back into our growth portfolio typically into more scale-based platforms or growth assets in infrastructure, sports and tech. And each of those, we think, will yield better returns over time.

Now with that as background, we move on to slide to have Q3 highlights. And I think there's just 3 core takeaways from today's call, and I'm going to dig into them both largely here at the top line level and then into more detail. But first of all, we are on track to spin off the Ziggo Group in the second quarter of next year. I'll get into this in more detail, I promise, but our confidence is supported by significant progress at the transaction, leadership and operating level. I referenced the strategic plan at VMO2 published to calls from among other things, run rate cost savings of GBP 800 million within 36 months.

Of course, we totally support have encouraged the goal of becoming a leaner, more agile business to both drive growth and cash generation. This Program is already underway, and it includes head count reduction, a simpler operating model and changes to capital allocation, which I'll discuss. Finally, we bought back 2.9% of the company in Q3, and we intend to continue at that pace in Q4. At current prices, that means the additional $100 million buyback would result in another 3.7% of the shares being retired, so nearly 7% in the second half of the year. Now it's difficult to not see the value here. And for what it's worth, I will be in the market buying shares tomorrow, my window opens as well. I've seen this movie before.

If you look at the sum of the parts analysis on the right-hand side of the slide, at $8 per share, plus or minus where we are, we're trading at a near 50% discount to the combined value of our unencumbered corporate cash and growth portfolio I just went through. Of course, by definition, that attributes 0 value, perhaps even negative equity value to the entirety of our telecom business.

Just to make a couple of points clear here. First, we do not intend at this time to put any cash currently on our balance sheet into our telecom businesses and why would we? These businesses are all free cash flow positive, have strong market positions and our set up demand is their investment plans and balance sheets entirely on their own. That's why they were put together the way they were. So the notion that some investors might be applying negative equity value is misguided.

Second, you don't need to make your [indiscernible] assumptions to arrive at positive equity value for the Ziggo group. We previously guided you towards $500 million of free cash flow and 4.5x leverage multiple in 2028. And we suggested that the Sunrise free cash flow yield of roughly 12% might be appropriate. By the way, that would result in a $13 tax-free dividend to shareholders that spend implying a $21 stock price today, just adding our $8 on top of that.

But just to be conservative, you assume $400 million of free cash flow and a 16% yield to reflect either more leverage or less growth or market conditions you arrive at an $8 tax-free dividend. Even with $300 million of free cash flow, and let's get extreme, a 20% yield on that free cash, you're talking about $5 per share, a 62% premium to our current stock price. So just a reminder, this is not an IPO. Yes, we will host a Capital Markets Day in Q1. Yes, management will go on a global roadshow to generate awareness and interest in the stock, just as we did with Sunrise, but we are not building a book or relying on banks to underwrite an equity offering.

The new Ziggo Group stock will be distributed tax-free to shareholders and will trade at the outset wherever the market determines fair value resides. And in our estimation, it will appreciate from that point as synergies, growth and deleveraging continued to unfold. This is why we remain committed to the transaction and the timing.

So let's dive into the Ziggo Group spinoff. The progress we've made thus far on Slide 6. First of all, I'm excited about the leadership team. How can it not be? Stephen has done an incredible job at Vodafone Ziggo, of course, and he's built a great team at Ziggo Group. Jany Fruytier is familiar to many of you, I hope, as the CFO of Sunrise. By the way, before, during and after that successful spin, he's actually Dutch and has returned to Amsterdam as CFO of Ziggo Group to work with Liberty on the pre-spin process and importantly, execute the synergies. And Rocio Lorenzo was a very senior executive at Liberty Latin America, most recently running the Panama business. She just started this week as CEO of Telenet replacing John Porter, who as you saw announced his retirement after over 30 years, outstanding years with me at Liberty. And John will be around until year-end and undoubtedly an important source of advice for us going forward. And of course, there's a host of other senior executives rounding out a very strong Ziggo Group team, and it all starts with the people on the ground. And from that point of view, we are in very, very good shape. And we've continuously updated you on all those building blocks.

So let's cover a few more. First of all, we have finalized a lead banking team. Goldman Sachs, BNP Paribas and ABN AMRO are all going to do an outstanding job for us. They provide really strong coverage across all equity markets and each of them remains very encouraged and positive about both deal and the timing. Second, we can report that due to several factors, we will realize over $700 million in tax assets in the combined group structure. Those tax benefits will constitute a significant part of the synergies which are now expected to be well in excess of EUR 1 billion. That's the target we previously provided.

Third, the deleveraging of Ziggo Group continues. The sale of the Vodafone Ziggo towers is expected to close imminently, delivering gross proceeds of EUR 670 million. That will delever Vodafone Ziggo and the wire sell-down will further deleverage Telenet to 4.5x. And then finally, we expect to be filing initial confidential prospectus with both the SEC and AFM in December next month, which should provide more than enough time to meet the Q2 '27 spin timing.

As you can see, this is a full court inspired in part by the confidence we see in the businesses themselves, but also by that sum of the parts chart that I just showed you, which is a great segue to the next slide, highlighting operating progress in Ziggo Group's biggest market, the Netherlands. The VodafoneZiggo is becoming a much, much stronger competitor in this market. That much should be clear to everybody. Revenue was back to growth for the first time since 2024 with the best broadband results since 2019, perhaps the most exciting recent development is the world's first major launch of DOCSIS 4, which is now delivering 4 and 8 gigabit speeds today and will ultimately reach 8 million homes. This strategy have to say, validates both the quality of our HFC networks and the decision not to build fiber in this market. DOCSIS 4 future proofs the network for any demand scenarios. DOCSIS 4 avoids disruption to customers and communities since we're not digging up streets and DOCSIS 4 costs 10x less than building fiber. So that means we're achieving this network-wide transformation, best-in-market speeds with in a current CapEx envelope, and that's going to provide greater flexibility for future capital allocation decisions around leverage and dividends post spin.

Now moving to actual operating results for the Netherlands and Belgium on Slide 8, you'll see on the left-hand side, but I've already said, VodafoneZiggo continues to deliver strong and improving broadband performance with 12,000 net adds and its best quarterly result in over 7 years. That was helped in part by an expanded footprint, but also by new loyalty programs that are making a big difference. Meanwhile, fixed ARPU improved 1% and that's despite lower front book pricing because we saw price indexation kick in and an ESP and surcharge because Dutch football is now available on all TV packages.

Mobile postpaid additions were strong, 31,000 in the quarter, that's driven by renewed tenure-based loyalty program. I think it's a very positive move for Stephen, with strong early customer engagement and new FMC proposition and faster broadband speeds. Telenet also had a good quarter about 4,000 broadband net adds supported by strong base FMC growth and residential mobile of about 4,000 net adds and that's driven by premium handsets and a new mobile promotion on 15 gigabit tariffs. Just the sort of momentum you want to see from both of these businesses going into Q4 in 2027.

Now let's switch gears to the U.K. I know this is a market and a topic on everybody's minds here. Let me start with some context on Slide 9. I know we talk about it every quarter, and many of you are following the market as closely as we are, but the U.K. has been and remains one of the most challenging operating environments in Europe for telcos. Since the formation of our JV 5 years ago, retail revenue market-wide and fixed to mobile has declined over 5 billion or 13%, and that's according to [indiscernible].

In fixed, this is explained by following home telephony subscriptions and more recently, intense price competition with the arrival of unsustainable fiber players. And in mobile, we've seen rapid erosion in pricing with delayed MNO consolidation way too long and the arrival of MVNO and branded competitors. So despite these headwinds, as you can see on the chart, BMO 2 has produced stable EBITDA growing from GBP 3.6 billion in 2020, a year before our JV started, to GBP 4 billion in 2023, and and then remaining largely steady since then at about GBP 3.9 billion. So while Lutz and the team have struggled historically to drive customer growth and revenue in this difficult market, they have been able to stabilize profitability with synergies and the commitment to cost efficiencies.

It's also worth pointing out that as the slide does here, over that same 5-year period, VMO2 invested heavily in its networks brands and digital platforms, an investment that has produced 4 of the most recognizable brands in the market, a #1 position in mobile connections, a strong broadband base with faster average speeds far faster than those that are delivered by BT and a #2 position in B2B.

So 2 points here. While VMO2 is a strong scale-based national champion, which in the face of serious headwinds has delivered a steady financial performance over the last 5 years, it has not been enough, which is why we asked for and management has delivered the new transformation program announced today, and you can see the core elements of that plan on Slide 10 including GBP 400 million of run rate cost reductions next year, growing to GBP 800 million by 2029. That's funded in part by a leaner, simpler organization and a 30% headcount reduction. They've already been changes at the senior operating level here, including the appointment of Lisa McAllen, who now oversees the entire B2C division, putting customers first, organizing around key brands, launching simpler products and propositions. She's off to a great, great start.

Importantly, the team is already redirecting CapEx to clearer higher return projects. which has prompted the decision by the way, saying it today that we aren't going to build any more fiber on the VMO2 balance sheet regardless of the outcome on the [indiscernible]. Instead, we see a big opportunity to upgrade nearly 70% of the HFC network to 2 gigs speeds next year. That will have a huge impact and give Lisa a tremendous asset to start marketing. So given the significance of this entire program, VMO2 is going to provide a capital markets update for debt and equity investors in the first quarter of next year, hopefully around our year-end results. And that will certainly run through the progress on cost reductions and provide a deep dive into the commercial business.

Now regarding the Netomnia transaction, we remain committed to this deal. I made a decision to keep our remarks today short and to the point. I'm sure you've seen our public statements, and they're fully aware of the debate. All I'll say is that we are deeply disappointed by the CMA's interim report. It is so fundamentally flawed with conclusions and counterfactuals that do not reflect the commercial and financial reality of the U.K. market, in particular, the assumption that Citi fiber, another operator would have or will have acquired Netomnia is not a credible basis to judge our transaction. I think you're well aware of City Fiber's financial condition, nor is the assumption that the billions of pounds of investment enabled by this deal would simply happen. Anyway, as I've just indicated to you, we're helping the fiber build on VMO2's balance sheet. So this is a big moment for the U.K. telecom sector for sure. But I think it's even a bigger moment for the U.K. Investors are watching to see whether or not U.K. regulators are prepared to apply the law in a fair and reasonable manner, particularly one that does not pick winners or prop but failing bidders.

So stay tuned, it isn't over. During the Q3 or bring results in the U.K. and Ireland, briefly wrap up my section here. VMO2 delivered year-over-year sequential improvement in both broadband and mobile net losses in the quarter despite the highly competitive environment we just spoke about? Mobile ARPU has been growing while fixed ARPU declined over the last few quarters reflect promotional intensity. Despite the headwinds, the team remains on its front foot. This is key with improved AI-supported customer service metrics. We just extended the naming rights for the O2 arena, a tremendous asset, and we've continued network investment, particularly in 5G plus, where coverage is approaching 90%. And then finally, Virgin Media Ireland delivered its strongest total broadband result in 7 quarters alongside continued positive mobile net adds. So you can read about that. So with that, I'll hand it over to Charlie, and then the team and I will happily address any of your questions. Charlie, over to you.

Charles Bracken

Thanks, Mike. Turning to our Q3 financial highlights. Performance across our operating companies continues to be on track against our full year guidance, which I will cover in more detail over the next few slides. As you've heard, VMO2 is focused on reducing leverage, and we are encouraged by the direction of a new strategic plan to simplify the business and reduce the cost base. At Ziggo Group, the balance sheet is supported by a long-dated maturity profile with no material maturities expected until 2029. And deleveraging across the Ziggo Group, Credit Sales remains on track as we've demonstrated with the recently announced tower sale.

The next slide sets out the Q3 financial results for VodafoneZiggo and Telenet. VodafoneZiggo returned to positive revenue growth for the first time since 2024 supported by price indexation, the ESPN surcharge and customer growth, which more than offset the pressure from front book repricing and lower B2B mobile revenues. Adjusted EBITDA declined 6.9%, in line with our guidance reflecting the in-year impact of the how we win plan and budgeted one-off investments in network resilience and security.

Adjusted EBITDA less property and equipment additions also continued to be impacted by the one-off investments reflected in higher CapEx during the quarter. At Telenet, revenue was broadly stable, supported by higher Wyre wire TSA revenues, increased handset sales and higher programming revenues associated with the new [indiscernible] Pro League agreement with [indiscernible]. Adjusted EBITDA declined mainly due to lower subscription revenues and higher programming costs related to the new design deal. Adjusted EBITDA less property and equipment additions benefited from CapEx phasing and lower 5G CapEx spend.

Turning to the U.K. and Ireland. VMO2 total service revenue was broadly in line with our expectations, driven by continued pressure in the consumer fixed market and the planned rationalizing of the O2 business portfolio to support long-term growth. Adjusted EBITDA declined 2.6%, driven by the lower headline revenues, offset by cost efficiency measures and certain one-off benefits during the quarter in relation to legal matters and a reduction in sales commission expenses. Virgin Media Ireland service revenues declined modestly, driven by lower Virgin Media TV revenue and adjusted EBITDA was impacted by a EUR 9 million one-off adjustment related to Virgin Media TV content amortization as well as the flow-through from lower revenue.

Adjusted EBITDA less property equipment additions reflect to the last major quarter of fiber CapEx spend as we near the completion of our fiber rollout program.

Turning to capital allocation. Our operating companies continue to invest in their networks and digital transformations that broadly capital intensity is moderating through the cycle. During the quarter, investment of Virgin Media O2 continued across the fiber upgrade program, mobile capacity and spectrum integration as well as IT and digital transformation. VodafoneZiggo investment reflected DOCSIS 4.0 network upgrades and the CapEx one-offs related to the network resilience program. And Telenet CapEx has stepped down as its 5G and digital upgrades complete while Virgin Media Island is approaching the end of its fiber upgrade across approximately 1 million premises.

Now on the top right, the fair value of the Liberty growth portfolio was approximately $2.9 billion at quarter end. The movement from Q2 primarily reflected modest investments in Formulary and Bloom. On corporate cash, we ended the quarter with around $2 billion, the biggest movements during the quarter related to the $1.2 billion payment of Vodafone for the 50% stake in VodafoneZiggo, the modest investments in Liberty growth and $100 million in share repurchases. We're now targeting to end the year with $1.8 billion of corporate cash, assuming that the full $200 million of share buybacks is completed.

Now moving to the treasury slide. We remain focused on disciplined refinancing and a higher for longer interest rate environment. Our siloed capital structures are fully swapped with a fixed cost of debt and base rate hedges remain in place through 2030. Despite challenges in the macro environment, we've actually completed $11.5 billion of financings year-to-date, including approximately $10 billion across Liberty Telecom. This activity has materially reduced near-term maturities compared with our position at the end of 2025. As Ziggo grew net of expected noncore asset disposals, we do not expect any material maturities in VodafoneZiggo or Telenet credit silos until 2029. Telenet recently closed a EUR 427.5 million term loan A., the proceeds of which will be used to refinance an existing facility and other near-term maturities.

And finally, turning to our full year guidance for 2026. We are reviewing our options with respect to VMO2's planned cash distribution to shareholders in 2026 and we'll provide an update in Q1 2027 when we announce the full year results and know the outcome of the Netomnia transaction. Otherwise, we remain on track across all other guidance metrics across Liberty Telecom and Corporate. Now that concludes our prepared remarks, and I would now like to hand over to the operator for Q&A.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our first question is from Robert J. Grindle with Deutsche Bank.

分析师问答

Robert Grindle

My question is about the U.K. you're suspending the U.K. fiber build and saving a good chunk of money there. Does that imply anything with regard to your ambition to wholesale on the existing 10 million or so fiber footprint, 10 million homes. Do you have the CapEx capacity within your target to connect the VMO2 or wholesale customers to that existing fiber network.

Michael Fries

I'll let Lutz chime in here, I think the main takeaway, Robert, from our decision to halt the fiber build on the balance sheet is that we remain opportunistic number one, the HSE network as we're demonstrating in Holland is a powerful network. And the 2 gig, we will be in a great position across the market. By the way, the 2 gig upgrade is tiny in comparison 100 kind of number to get the entire footprint ready and able to deliver 2 gig speed. That's a huge step in the right direction. And we'll see how the fiber situation unfolds, but we see no reason to be upgrading fiber today in the footprint that we operate. That doesn't mean we won't use other people's fiber. It doesn't mean we won't wholesale where we have fiber -- doesn't mean we won't access fiber, our own or others where it makes operating economic sense.

Simply means we don't see the need at this point to follow along, if you will, fiber is a valuable asset, but not the only way to deliver broadband. And in our case, not the best use of capital today. Lutz, do you want to add anything to that?

Lutz Schüler

Yes. So I mean, so far, we have the opportunity to sell our existing fiber network, which is together with next fiber around 9 million homes. Final decision how to progress with it will done when the new plan is decided by the board end of November. But so far, the technology is there, the platform is there and the cost could be handled in the plan for the next 3 years, Robert.

Operator

Our next question is from Andrew Lee with Goldman Sachs.

Andrew Lee

Just a follow-up to Robert's question. So obviously, you're presenting a good counterfactual argument for CMA today that may cause it to adjust its view, but that rental scenario needs to be credible for that. So I just wanted to digging a bit on the rental now, what changed to make you are building is not the best use of capital and HFC upgrades will be enough? And just in terms of renting, would the rental rather than building renting rather than building scenario, which you're positioning is a hypothetical approach should it only not go through? Would renting give you the confidence to deliver and guide to service revenue growth on a medium-term basis?

Michael Fries

I'll just say on one point, Lutz, and you take the question. Remember, renting versus building is not the only question. We are always looking to extend our footprint, and that, by definition, will require renting. So the idea that we will use other fiber networks, where available to extend the reach of our brands is a foreground completion. So that's something we should do that would obviously drive marketable homes, revenue and opportunity for the core business. Lutz, if you can try to address the first question.

Lutz Schüler

Yes. So I mean, our assumption was always that our HFC network will serve customers in a very good way for the time being, right? I mean when you -- when the question is, and this is more in the perspective of in the next 10 or 20 years, when higher speeds than DOCSIS 3.1 required, which will give us the 2 gig. And for that, we have started to build fiber. And for that, we have also entered also this. Now it's very simple that during the course of the years when we build fiber, yes, we could clearly see where you see 3 fiber networks it is not economically viable for any of them. So therefore, we have already before stopped to overbuild [indiscernible]. And now we have stopped it entirely. So the question now is yes, for the next couple of years, we are safe with HFC. And then of footprint, it's a huge opportunity. And on footprint we might get on other networks or there are lots of inorganic opportunities still around the corner, and we will find a way to roll out fiber with partners where there are no 2 existing fiber networks. This is very important. We would never build anywhere fiber as a [indiscernible] fiber net and of course, we can't give you at this time, an outlook of service revenue, right? I mean, Mike announced that we will have a Capital Markets Day in Q1 next year. So be assured we are having a plan that is also considering the development of the service revenues that is showing growing operating free cash flow, but the details around that first need to be approved by the Board. and then will be shared with all of you in Q1.

By the way, [indiscernible] regulatory [indiscernible]. Rob, let me add one thing. It's a bit of a wake-up call to us this regulatory posture that were faced with here. Never did we anticipate that this transaction with Netomnia would encounter such fierce resistance. It is a reflection of, as I mentioned deeply flawed perspective and understanding of where this market is going.

So we have, to some degree, been pushed into this direction as well. It's unclear to us how this market evolves over the long term and I'm certain that the powers that be in government have no idea of what's going to unfold. So this is a bit disconcerting for us and for Telefonica, which is why we need to buckle down and do what we can do and do what we know we can do and drive growth in the business, which is and not believe a 2 gig product is going to do wonders for us, and there's so much untapped opportunity, we can't wait around for the government to figure itself out. ahead to

Andrew Lee

Yes. I think share price from prices show that people didn't didn't anticipate the CMA response either. Can I just ask 1 quick follow-up. So do you think that your -- this new approach in terms of or this clearer, maybe more straightforward approach in terms of ceasing fiber build makes it more or less possible that you could sell assets to help reduce your debt part? And is that on the agenda at the moment.

Michael Fries

Well, we've referenced in the past the remaining tower portfolio that we have an interest in, that is something we've always considered. Other transactions involving our HFC network or fiber network, we always remain opportunistic, and you should assume we are looking at all sorts of opportunities here to raise cash. And so that's on the table. We just can't speak about it today.

Operator

Our next question is from Matthew Harrigan with StoneX.

Matthew Harrigan

Especially with the commonality on the HSC side now between the U.K. and Ziggo Group, and the very dramatic reductions in the cost plan that was submitted. Is there a fair amount of sharing in terms of the strategic planning and the technology road map. I mean you talked a lot about AI, pretty substantial cost reductions in the prior call, but just curious as to whether there's a lot of talk between the 2 companies?

Michael Fries

Thanks, Matt. Absolutely, that's always been our approach, to running these businesses, whether we own 50% or 100%, there's an open dialogue, Enrique and the team, whether it's AI or network decisions. The CEOs of the various operating businesses are together frequently with me and our team. So there's as much information and knowledge sharing as can happen. And when it comes to something like DOCSIS 4, there are very few people in the world as up-to-date on that as we are in Comcast and Charter and Vodafone. Probably the 4 of us would be the most knowledgeable companies on the planet on this technology, which has proven to be robust -- remains robust. And I think as the Dutch market will demonstrate at 8-gig is outstanding product for customers and very effective and efficient to build. So yes, lots of sharing common planning, and that's what makes, I think our approach to this pretty special.

Matthew Harrigan

So obviously, you're seeing a lot of new usage growth with the new 2 gig product.

Michael Fries

Sorry, go ahead, one more time, Matt.

Matthew Harrigan

I assume you're seeing a lot of usage growth and functionality with the new 2 gig product.

Michael Fries

Yes. I mean, look, whenever we've raised and Lutz can address that more specifically, but whenever we've increased speed or sort of make technological leaps in the quality of broadband we see more usage. That's for sure. I mean even today, VMO2, given the size of its broadband base, the average speed received by BMO customers multiples, what the average U.K. customer is getting today because our network has always been the most robust. And whenever we have leaps and speed offerings, of course, there's more usage and just half of your customers. So there's a marketing component to it as well, no question, but there's also a fundamental technology component to it, and we can continue to expect to see that.

Operator

Our next question is from Ulrich Rathe with Bernstein Societe General Group.

Ulrich Rathe

I wanted to ask about the VMO2 cost cut announcements. Could you talk a little bit how how this came about in terms of did you identify inefficiencies and decide, therefore, it's time now for this? Or is it driven by the situation on the debt stack how would you position your thoughts at the moment about the situation, how the debt is trading with regards to the possibility of that restructuring?

Michael Fries

A lot of questions there. I'll let Lutz speak a bit more about the organic evolution of this plan. I'll just add that from a shareholder point of view, and as I said in my remarks, I think the team has always been quite good at managing an efficient business in the face of headwinds, revenue headwinds and growth headwinds. And so looking out and understanding the market as we do, it seemed to us to be a great opportunity and a great moment to rethink the operating model.

Now what's driving that, lots of things, just running a more efficient business, bringing in new senior leadership, benefits of AI, et cetera, et cetera. I'll let Lutz address that more [indiscernible]. And Charlie, you can take the last question. Go ahead, Lutz.

Lutz Schüler

Yes. I think 3 things came together, Ulrich. So one is what we hired Lisa, our new consumer CO and she clearly came with a new strategy coming from the brands and a clear prioritization. So we have found a few things that will make the biggest difference for customers and aligned our resources behind that. Lisa also has started already earlier than the rest of the company to dramatically simplify consumer operating model, and now we are enlarging this across the company. So that's one.

The second thing is, of course, as Mike said, that our shareholders told us over summer to come up with a plan to generate a certain cost savings. And so this came quite nicely together, and we challenged us across the company in operating model and other costs.

And then thirdly, as discussed before, we made a strategic decision on fiber, which is also helping on the costing. So I would say these 3 things came together. Charlie?

Charles Bracken

And just on the debt, look, I think we recognize that the debt is -- as a multiple is trending above our 4 to 5x target. And we also are committed to getting the leverage down towards our targets. I think we have to wait to see what the plan bottoms out at. I think Lutz has done a lot of good things with the cost savings, with lots of other elements, and he's still working through his budgeting cycle. So I think we'll have more news on the debt and how we plan to refinance it in February around the Q4 results. I mean, again, I would reemphasize there is no maturity before 2029. So we have time to see how the market conditions evolve over the next few months and obviously how the company's performance above. So keep stay tuned, and we'll come back to you in February and March.

Operator

Our next question is from James Ratzer with New Street Research.

James Ratzer

Yes. I mean hard to keep it to just one question. But the one I would have today, if possible. I mean, Mike, for equity holders in Liberty Global, you've made a pretty powerful statement today that you would put no cash from the Topco into the telecom assets. So just to kind of reconfirm that. I was wondering if I could kind of stress test to potential scenarios. One is it becomes clear before the Ziggo Group spin actually happens that it's going to be difficult to reach leverage target? And the second one is, I mean, given where the Virgin Media bonds are trading, clearly, everyone on the credit side is expecting some kind of debt restructuring to happen there.

So there could be an amend and extend proposal and that can often involve sponsors potentially putting capital into companies as part of that process. So just to be crystal clear, could you kind of confirm that in either of those 2 scenarios, you still wouldn't be putting any cash from the corporate company down into the telecom assets?

Michael Fries

Well, yes, in the first instance, we stand by the statement, obviously, and I think it's the right thing for us -- position for us to have. In the first example, where there's a spin-off pending, and as I mentioned about that spin-off, it's happening, I should make that clear again, it's happening. And if we're not waiting for all the stars to align, there's no need to wait for all the stars to align with the stock where it is today. It's all good. So it's happening. And now the only reason we would consider potentially putting money into a spin-off, not into the company to reduce -- or to keep it humming on any other basis. Is this essentially a dividend to shareholders?

In the case of Sunrise, you put money in there, but that was effectively a dividend to shareholders, tax-free. So as if we were handing cash to shareholders, that is a different scenario. That's a very optimistic, positive moment where we are unlocking value unleashing value for shareholders. we may think about that, but that is not on the table because I think this business is trending in a manner that it doesn't require any boost or a kick in the pants.

On VMO2, no comment. We made it clear, Charlie, I just made it clear, we have nothing to add to where we sit today. The business is generating free cash flow. Yes, it's a little bit up and above the high end of our leverage marks. Yes, we are -- I think Lutz and the team are making extraordinary efforts to bring operating free cash flow, meaningful operating free cash flow to the business. We need to wait and see where the market sits. Our interest rates are low with base-grade rate hedging through the '29 period. But this is in our minds anyway, not a crisis. And so I'm not prepared to address that hypothetical at all. I think there's no need to.

On the first one, I view that as a very positive moment. The only reason we do that is if we thought we can get the stock out at 12 instead of 10 or something. And you should view that as a dividend to shareholders, not as an investment in the telco business per se because immediately, the value of that equity injection would be realized to the benefit of shareholders, which we all like. So that's how I'd answer that question. I don't know Charlie, you might add into that, but I think I've made the point.

Charles Bracken

I wouldn't I mean ...

James Ratzer

Mike on that -- on that point, Mike, wouldn't -- I mean, given you're trying to steer the market to value the Ziggo Group on a cash flow yield basis, wouldn't cash in the Ziggo Group on a cash flow yield basis be valued at a lower value than cash that sits in the corporate company. So I'm wondering why you would consider doing that.

Michael Fries

The only reason is, you're right, and that's why it's not a very -- not a very likely scenario. The only reason might be that the yield itself would come down, right? So if I'm if the business is trading at a certain leverage ratio, the yield might be closer to KPN yield of 5%, right? So Sunrise is up at 10% or 12%. So to me, it's less about the actual economic results or accounting result within the P&L or the balance sheet, it's about market perception of what is the right free cash flow yield.

Having said that, trust me, this spin-off, absent some force majeure we can't control is happening. Shareholders will have a share of stock with Ziggo Group written on it in the second quarter, and they'll value it where they choose to value it. And so the main answer is we don't think it's necessary, unlikely to do it, but you should perceive it as a -- if it were ever to happen as a very positive day, a very happy day for investors and only on that basis, would we consider it.

James Ratzer

And would there be any kind of threshold that would make you consider that? Is it if it's kind of -- I'm just trying to think about -- because I think this is an important scenario for shareholders to consider. So I'm just trying to think about what could be those variables that might make you put a cash dividend into the Ziggo Group before the spend?

Michael Fries

I don't want to get into those, James. I appreciate the question. It's the right one, but I don't think it's appropriate for us to get into all those notes. We've got a Capital Markets Day, we got 6 to 8 months to see how this unfolds. You're going to have plenty of time, I think, to run the scenarios that would be my response.

Operator

Our next question is from Polo Tang with UBS.

Polo Tang

Just a question for Stephen, in terms of VodafoneZiggo. So operationally, the company is seeing a turnaround that's clear. But can you maybe talk through the deleveraging profile and the moving parts to get to 4.5x leverage from 6x currently. I think most investors in terms of their maths are going to get down to around about 5x. But can you also talk about the bridge and the moving parts to get to $500 million of equity free cash flow in 2028. And is this number $500 million sustainable longer term given you've got longer-term debt maturities, but the bond yields are higher than your current cost of financing.

Maybe a quick follow-up for Lutz, if that's possible on VMO2. You've outlined plans for significant cost savings. But can you give some detail about the measures you're taking to improve subscriber trends and revenues. So are you looking to grow VMO2 longer term? Or alternatively, is this turnaround plan more focused on having a stable top line and boosting operating free cash flow for cost savings?

Charles Bracken

[indiscernible] talk about financial [indiscernible].

Michael Fries

[indiscernible] Leverage point. Yes, go ahead, Charlie.

Charles Bracken

Yes. Sorry, just I mean, Stephen, obviously, the master who's driving all this. But look, I think, first of all, we've given this medium-term target. We're going through a detailed budgeting process. Mike just indicated that our synergies are actually looking substantially higher than the $1 billion we told you about, but we're just not in a position to give you the integrated numbers. But you should assume that we see a road map to the $4.5 million and the $500 million. So you should assume that's there. In terms of the actual details on the bridge, clearly, there'll be some EBITDA turnaround. I think that's been pretty clear. And Stephen set the foundations. I think he's guided as a very strong chance of EBITDA growth next year, but let's wait for the final budgeting and the synergies to come through, so we can give you an exact number there. We're still getting our feed. We'll see [indiscernible] just started on exactly what the final plan is for Telenet. But based on the plan we have today, we feel pretty good about that.

And then in terms of the cash flow, I think we've indicated these synergies are pretty material and would underpin a big part of that, about $500 million. So I'm not trying to dot the question, but I think it's a little bit early for us to give you a line-by-line bridge, but I can assure you, you will be seeing that in the Capital Markets Day come whenever it is. And we recognize that's a key question on everyone's mind.

Michael Fries

Yes. And CapEx reduction, particularly at Telenet, where the mobile upgrade is complete, and you're going to see a big turnaround in free cash flow in '27 and '28. At Telenet, that's a big chunk of the $500 million. Stephen, we didn't give you a chance to say anything there. Do you want to add anything?

Stephen van Rooyen

I think that was -- well, firstly, thanks, Paul, for the question. I think it was handled pretty well by Charlie. I mean, I do is I would reemphasize as you've seen, our turnaround take route through this year that my expectation is that the financials, which are a lagging indicator for the commercial staff [indiscernible] through next year. So trying to say we're in the budgeting process, but I fully expect us to see the EBITDA line to improving, which goes some way alongside the synergies towards getting to that target.

Michael Fries

And the CapEx result.

Polo Tang

VMO2?.

Michael Fries

Lutz?

Lutz Schüler

Yes. I mean we -- Polo, we are not giving top line guidance today, right? So we are also having our Capital Markets Day contribution around in Q1 next year. But I think clear is we see not really a short-term recovery of the market. So we are not planning with that. Number 2 is, of course, midterm, right, we see a stabilized also top line, right? And we will give you details for that. So it's not that we are only working on cost saving, and we forget about gross margin and top line. Both things will come together that we can show you sustainable growth in operating free cash flow, right? And we will give you details for that in Q1.

Operator

Our next question is from Joshua Joshua Mills BNP Paribas.

Joshua Mills

First one, just for Stephen. Obviously, a lot of the focus this year has been about turning around the negative subscriber trends in broadband, which you've now done for 2 quarters in a row. I was just wondering if you could comment a bit about how you think about the balance in value and volume and commercial strategy as you push into next year. You've raised prices already de facto by putting the ESPN product in. Is that the kind of pricing move we should expect to see more of going forward? Or do you still believe that volume gains and the necessary price discounts, which says in detail would be your focus? And then maybe if I can squeeze the second one in quickly. You've made the point very clearly on the call that you distributed the CMA decision and will be challenging it. Can you just explain to us the mechanisms by which you will be making that challenge because based on the CMA disclosure, I think they said you hadn't till last Tuesday to submit remedies, you did in [indiscernible]. Now you're challenging them on the basis of their methodology is flawed. So what is the legal route that you can explore there? And when should we expect to get an update on whether route is successful.

Stephen van Rooyen

Yes. So let me see if I can -- so let me see if I can respond to the first part of your question and hand to Lutz for a second. So look, you're right, we have spent the balance of the last 18 months focusing on getting the decay in the broadband base, which contributes significantly to the financials back to positive growth. And we've achieved up for 2 quarters in a row and my expectation is we'll be able to continue to see that for a while. Our plan longer term is once we're in positive territory, which we're in, is to sustain it at a reasonable level.

I mean the markets mature there's only so much growth that comes from the market. And so getting positive and staying positive is where we like to play. I think a healthy business is a growing business. Having said that, I think you'll see a lot more focus on working on yield. I mean a couple of things on that. So number one is we'll be lapping the repricing that we did pretty soon. We'll put that through almost 2 years ago now. So that will trade out of the numbers. We've introduced the highest speeds. We've got tiering plans on the higher speeds, which [indiscernible] slightly better yield. We have further plans like the one that we've executed for ESPN to find new ways of growing revenue through through our existing base. And you see that in the fixed ARPU that you've got that we delivered today. We've been able to execute the repricing change as well as getting back to growth without disturbing ARPU as much as most people would have expected when we put through an entire repricing.

So I see more of the balance coming between the volume, which we have now achieved and positive volume growth, which we've achieved and managing the financials through the product portfolio that we have and I think more that we can do on optimizing the product portfolio that we've still got. And I think you'll see that play out in '27. Lutz?

Lutz Schüler

On the CMA process -- yes, on the CMA process, obviously, we submitted to the CMA, our view of their interim report as did most of the market. There is a hearing this week or we'll have an opportunity to engage in CMA, I understand what they're saying. We have also asked them to issue a supplemental interim report, not unprecedented, asking them to revise their report may or may not happen. Either way, we expect some kind of final report from them mid-December, and we'll react and have an update once that occurs.

Unknown Executive

The only thing I would add to that is the only thing I would add to that is, right, that also during the process now. TalkTalk got acquired by BT. So the entire underlying market assessment of the CMA has to be reviewed, right? So it's not a really straightforward process and there are some questions also coming from that.

Operator

Our next question from David Wright with Bank of America.

David Wright

So yes, just back to the U.K., when you do -- given that the fiber build has halted, what sort of CapEx more sustainable CapEx would we be thinking about? And also whether you think there is a need for a little bit more expenditure on mobile given the clear momentum or investment Vodafone is making? And I just wondered, you mentioned about the U.K. HFC upgrades, but it's not DOCSIS 4. Can you just confirm why it's not DOCSIS 4? And actually, in the Netherlands, do you -- how many DOCSIS 4 customers do you currently have?

Michael Fries

I'll let Lutz answer all the questions, but DOCSIS 4 customers in the Netherlands, Steve, I imagine we have a handful. We just launched essentially. So I don't think there's much there. And go ahead. And Enrique, do you want to jump in on the why not DOCSIS 4 in the U.K. and welcome to Lutz, go ahead.

Lutz Schüler

So on fiber investment, I think we disclosed before a number that we are right paying a bit more than 100 pounds per home passed. So I think, David, you can run the math yourself. On mobile, Well, we are the fastest improving network in Europe. So we are the ones who have done big steps. We have close to 90% 5G stand-alone coverage, the highest in this market, and we are putting now all the spectrum to work that we acquired on the back of the merger, Vodafone 3. So we are sitting on a very good mobile network now again, it took a long time, but we are and we will -- we have the money in our 3-year plan to really have that position. And on why do we don't we build DOCSIS 4.0? Well, here, it is simply cheaper to build fiber because difference to the Netherlands is that this country is [indiscernible]. So therefore, to build fiber is much cheaper. But we talked about it, right? There has been built so much fiber that they -- it will be either whole buying or it will be any inorganic way of merger, whatever to get to higher fiber coverage than the EUR 9 million we have.

David Wright

But unless I'm wrong, you're not upgrading -- or are you upgrading the residual HFC to DOCSIS 4.0 in the U.K. or not?

Lutz Schüler

No, we are not. I tried to say, David...

David Wright

At this point?

Lutz Schüler

That is pretty much same cost like building fiber in our case, not in the Netherlands case because our network is ducted, Therefore, we will not do that.

Operator

Our next question is from Maurice Patrick with Barclays.

Maurice Patrick

Just a quick one for me. On the U.K. market, sorry to come back to it, your fixed ARPU is down 5% year-on-year. Just curious to understand how much of that was driven by the front book pricing pressure versus the backward repricing? I saw some press article earlier this week talking about how you were more going after the back book customers and repricing them maybe more than you were beforehand? So just curious as to, of that 5% ARPU decline, how much of its front book, back book, whether it should continue? And then maybe just a very quick sort of follow-on. I don't think you've really given your views on the BT TalkTalk acquisition yet in terms of your -- the extent to which you can would challenge it all your views about it.

Michael Fries

Well, I think Lutz just mentioned it. We obviously are surprised to say the least, but that transaction is being rushed through -- wouldn't be a surprise to you to know we were also looking at that asset as were many others. So the idea that there was only one buyer or one solution for those customers or that those customers were truly at risk, we think is wrong. So it should require the exact same scrutiny as any transaction, including ours, all they're doing here as far as we can tell, strengthening the incumbent and their monopoly position without review, that's got to be a concern to anybody in the marketplace. Did you want to address the ARPU question?

Lutz Schüler

Yes. I mean the only talk to, right, the decision hasn't been taken finally, right? So I mean the state secretary now has to decide will the CMA undertake a clear review process or not, and that decision is due in the next coming weeks. We agree with maybe a quick decision was needed to ensure business continuity for vulnerable customers and others. We strongly disagree with the fact that, that means that now process and some actions can be taken. And so we are waiting for that. And of course, we are interested in customers where we have the network. On your ARPU question, I think it's hard to say. So to quantify, I mean, high level, we are doing both, right? We have to be competitive in acquisition pricing and of course, the acquisition price, especially for higher speeds have gone down.

And the other one is that we've done a lot of prevention. So we have identified segments with a higher likelihood to churn and we have proactively lowered the price and invited them to stay for another 2 years with us. So therefore, I think the overall amount of customers who are now within the minimum contract land with us is very, very high.

And I think maybe the second one has driven directed the ARPU a bit more. I mean you haven't asked for the outlook. And as I said before, is we don't expect that the market will recover in the near term. We're not factoring that in. But Lisa is coming with a strategy that, for sure, will stabilize value for customers using video, using higher speeds and using adjacent services. So we are going to share that with you in Q1.

Michael Fries

I think we're at time, everybody. So yes, thanks, Lutz. We're out of time. So just a quick thank you from all of us. I appreciate you jumping on. Lots of information to process. Obviously, we're around to chat. Stay tuned for in early next year, some moments to engage with both VMO2 and Ziggo Group directly in an extended period, I think it will be very helpful for you and we maintain our laser focus on driving value for shareholders, that should be clear. So thanks for joining us. Speak soon.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes Liberty Global's Third Quarter 2026 Investor Call. As a reminder, a replay of the call will be available in the Investor Relations section of Liberty Global's website. There you can also find a copy of today's presentation materials. Thank you all.