Bright Horizons (BFAM) 2026年第三季度业绩电话会议:随着应急托育业务增长,业绩指引有所调整
Bright Horizons公布2026财年第三季度营收增长5%至8.41亿美元,调整后每股收益增长15%至1.80美元。尽管备用护理服务表现强劲,但全套服务入托人数放缓、英国监管压力及澳大利亚经营环境艰难,导致管理层下调全年营收预期至约30.7亿美元。
Bright Horizons 2026财年第三季度业绩电话会总结
Bright Horizons Family Solutions(纽约证券交易所代码:BFAM)公布2026财年第三季度营收增长5%,主要得益于备用护理(Back-Up Care)服务的强劲需求。然而,全套服务(Full Service)入托人数放缓、英国监管压力以及澳大利亚艰难的经营环境,导致管理层下调了全年业绩预期。
核心要点
- 第三季度营收同比增长5%至8.41亿美元,调整后每股收益(EPS)增长15%至1.80美元。调整后营业利润率保持不变,为15.5%。
- 备用护理业务营收增长13%至2.86亿美元,受用户数量增加及人均使用量上升推动,尤其是夏季的夏令营和辅导服务。
- 全套服务业务营收增长1.3%至5.22亿美元。学费上涨的影响被入托人数减少、中心关闭以及澳大利亚业务持续萎缩所部分抵消。
- 公司计提了与国际全套服务报告单位相关的2.94亿美元非现金减值准备,其中包括2.90亿美元的商誉减值和400万美元的其他无形资产减值。
- 管理层将2026财年全年的营收预期修正为约30.7亿美元,调整后每股收益预期修正为4.98美元至5.03美元。
- Bright Horizons正在评估澳大利亚业务的战略选择,同时,英国监管机构发布的儿童保护通知在解除前,预计将继续影响当地的入托人数。
核心财务业绩
| 财务指标 | 2026财年第三季度 | 同比变化 / 备注 |
|---|---|---|
| 营收 | 8.41亿美元 | 增长5% |
| 调整后营业利润 | 1.30亿美元 | 增长5% |
| 调整后营业利润率 | 15.5% | 与上年同期持平 |
| 调整后EBITDA | 1.63亿美元 | 增长5% |
| 调整后EBITDA利润率 | 19.4% | 与上年同期持平 |
| 调整后每股收益 | 1.80美元 | 增长15% |
| 今年前三季度经营活动现金流 | 2.08亿美元 | 截至2026年9月 |
| 固定资产投资净额 | 6900万美元 | 截至2026年9月 |
| 股票回购 | 5.60亿美元 | 截至2026年9月 |
| 期末现金余额 | 1.19亿美元 | — |
| 过去12个月净杠杆率 | 2.4倍 | 净负债与调整后EBITDA之比 |
调整后每股收益的增长反映了营业利润的提升以及股票回购的推动作用。由于平均债务余额和利率上升,净利息支出同比增长700万美元,达到1700万美元。
业务与运营表现
备用护理
备用护理仍是主要的增长引擎。营收增长13%至2.86亿美元,调整后营业利润达到1.01亿美元,调整后营业利润率为35%。
增长来源于用户基数的扩大以及人均使用量的提升。暑假期间对学龄儿童支持服务的需求最为强劲,包括夏令营和辅导课程。管理层表示,扩大服务商供应能力以及技术驱动的个性化服务,有助于在高峰期维持较高的履约率。
管理层提醒称,许多老用户已经消耗了其年度福利额度的较大部分。这预计将使今年后期的增长有所放缓,尽管公司将此问题主要归因于时间节点差异,而非潜在参与度减弱。
符合条件员工的渗透率仍低于5%。在更广泛的护理服务、护理咨询(Care Advising)、AI辅助导航以及One Bright Horizons集成体验的支撑下,管理层继续锁定备用护理业务11%至13%的长期增长目标。
全套服务
全套服务营收增长1.3%至5.22亿美元。学费上涨的影响被净关店带来的约200个基点阻力和澳大利亚入托人数下降带来的约100个基点阻力所抵消。
在本季度新开2家、关闭11家(包括在澳大利亚关闭的4家)中心后,Bright Horizons期末拥有的中心总数为979家。平均出勤率在60%中段水平。除澳大利亚外,开业一年以上的中心入托人数下降了约50个基点,其中大部分降幅来自美国。
管理层将美国的疲软表现主要归因于新家庭入学增长放缓,而非客户留存率下降。学龄前儿童每年向小学的过渡,也对出勤率最高的那部分中心带来了压力。
全套服务调整后营业利润率下降25个基点至3.7%。若扣除澳大利亚的影响,该利润率本将增长约40个基点,反映出学费涨幅高于工资增长以及运营效率的提升。
英国与澳大利亚
在英国,儿童护理监管机构于6月下旬发出针对集团全范围的通知,要求加强儿童安全保障治理与监管。9月中旬发布的更新通知认可了所取得的进展,但延长了审查期。管理层预计对入托人数更大的影响将发生在第四季度,并持续到该通知解除为止。
Bright Horizons正在增加安全保障措施,包括在美国和英国的中心安装摄像头、由专业机构进行外部审查,以及加强对课堂技术的监管控制。
在澳大利亚,管理层指出由开发商推动的供应增长以及需求疲软,已将出勤率推至多年低点。公司已计提相关减值准备,并正在积极评估该市场的战略选择。
教育咨询
教育咨询业务营收为3300万美元,同比略有下降。College Coach的增长被EdAssist参与者使用率下降所抵消。调整后营业利润率为29%。
管理层业绩指引
| 指引项目 | 2026财年展望 |
|---|---|
| 营收 | 约30.7亿美元 |
| 调整后每股收益 | 4.98美元-5.03美元 |
| 全套服务营收增长 | 约2% |
| 备用护理营收增长 | 约13% |
| 教育咨询营收增长 | 与2025财年基本持平 |
| 备用护理营业利润率 | 28%-30% |
| 利息支出 | 6100万美元-6200万美元 |
| 调整后有效税率 | 28.25% |
| 加权平均稀释股数 | 5100万股 |
| 第四季度营收 | 7.30亿美元-7.40亿美元 |
| 第四季度调整后每股收益 | 1.14美元-1.19美元 |
管理层预计全套服务营收增长将反映出学费上涨被入托人数减少、中心关闭以及澳大利亚业务疲软所抵消。全套服务利润率预计与2025财年基本持平,若不含澳大利亚则提高约70个基点。
关于2027财年的学费定价,管理层表示正在考虑按公司历史3%至4%区间的低端进行上调,具体决定将因中心而异。目前尚未提供正式的2027财年业绩指引。
风险与关注领域
- 英国的安全保障通知可能会继续限制咨询量和新家庭的入托注册。管理层表示,通知解除后恢复的时间点和节奏难以预测。
- 澳大利亚继续面临供应过剩、需求疲软以及处于多年低点的出勤率。战略评估的结果仍存在不确定性。
- 全套服务入托人数面临来自新家庭入学放缓、消费者态度谨慎以及学龄前儿童每年向小学过渡的压力。
- 2026年早些时候备用护理的高使用率意味着部分老用户即将触及年度福利上限,从而形成年末增长阻力。
- 更高的平均债务余额和利率使季度净利息支出增加至1700万美元。
- 投资组合合理化优化工作仍在继续。截至9月,Bright Horizons已关闭42家中心,并预计在2026年的剩余时间内还将再关闭约20家中心。
分析师问答环节亮点
- 美国入托情况:管理层表示,留存率依然强劲,但新家庭入学人数低于预期。这一放缓主要归因于更广泛的市场环境,而非特定于英国的安全保障问题。
- 英国业务复苏:公司预计在监管通知解除后,入托增长势头将有所改善,但管理层无法估计具体时间或咨询量与实际入学之间的潜在滞后时间。
- 备用护理需求:管理层明确表示,新用户增长依然稳健。第四季度的放缓反映了老用户与新用户的组合差异,老用户比预期更早地消耗掉了福利天数。
- 成熟客户增长:Bright Horizons的备用护理老客户参与度继续保持增长。管理层指出,较低的渗透率和更优质的个性化员工拓展是关键机遇。
- 中心关闭:管理层预计,由于公司将继续退出出勤率低于40%的据点,2027年美国市场仍将处于净关店状态。
- 提高入托人数的举措:公司正在努力改进响应时间、中心参观体验、潜在客户跟进、本地定价策略,以及通过雇主关系拓展客户。
- AI驱动的搜索发现:Bright Horizons正在针对通过大语言模型和AI代理进行的搜索调整其营销策略,包括提供更容易被检索到的内容、视频以及更多的预约参观时段。
业绩电话会完整文字记录
完整财报电话会议逐字稿
管理层陈述
Operator
Good evening, and welcome to the Bright Horizons Family Solutions Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call.
[Operator Instructions]
Please note this conference is being recorded.
I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Michael Flanagan, GVP, Strategic Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Michael Flanagan
Thanks, Carrie, and welcome to Bright Horizons' third quarter earnings call. Before we begin, please note that today's call is being webcast, and a recording will be available under the investor relations section of our website, investors.brighthorizons.com. As a reminder to participants, any forward-looking statements made on this call, including those regarding future business, financial performance, and outlook, are subject to the safe harbor statement included in our earnings release. Forward-looking statements inherently involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual operating and financial results to differ materially and should be considered in conjunction with the cautionary statements that are described in detail in our earnings release, 2025 Form 10-K, and other SEC filings. Any forward-looking statements speaks only as of the date on which it is made, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.
Today, we also refer to non-GAAP financial measures, which are detailed and reconciled to their GAAP counterparts in our earnings release, which is available under the IR section of our website, investors.brighthorizons.com. Joining me on today's call is our Chief Executive Officer, Stephen Kramer, and our Chief Financial Officer, Elizabeth Boland. Stephen will start by reviewing our results and will provide an update on the business. Elizabeth will follow with a more detailed review of the numbers before we open it up to your questions.
With that, let me turn the call over to Stephen.
Stephen Kramer
Thanks, Mike, and thank you to everyone joining us this evening. We delivered a solid third quarter with revenue growing 5% to $841 million and adjusted EPS growing 15% to $1.80. Across our portfolio of services, the third quarter is an important period and is illustrative of how we support working families at different stages of their lives. In Back-Up Care, it is our peak season for use, and in Full Service, it marks the start of a new school year, when preschoolers move up to elementary school and many new families join our centers. Getting into details on the recent quarter, I will start with Back-Up Care and then walk through Full Service, including how the fall enrollment season played out.
In Back-Up Care, revenue grew 13% to $286 million, in line with our expectations and on top of strong growth in the third quarter of each of the last four years. Growth was primarily driven by more employees using their benefit, along with an uptick in use per user, with the strongest demand in the care type serving families with school-aged children on summer break, including camps and tutoring. Meeting that demand starts well before school lets out. Heading into the busy summer season, our teams expanded our vetted provider network across care types, adding many new and, in many cases, exclusive partners in camp centers and in-home care, adding capacity in our highest demand geographies, and extending our reach into new markets where our client employees live and work.
That preparation allowed us to deliver care where and when families needed it, resulting in a high fulfillment rate throughout the peak period of demand. At the same time, our marketing and technology teams continued to advance the personalization initiatives that build awareness and drive use, along with the booking experience that allows families to secure care quickly and easily. The breadth of our care options, the quality and scale of our network, and the ease of booking through our platform are real competitive advantages, and they are why employers partner with Bright Horizons to provide this important benefit. As we have transitioned into the fall, we are mindful that many client employees are ahead of use within their annual use banks, given their strong utilization year to date.
We expect this to have a dampening effect on growth towards the end of the year, and we now anticipate 13% revenue growth for the full year. Looking over the long term, with penetration of our eligible employee base still below 5%, we see continued runway to extend participation and the breadth of use cases. Our focus is on broadening what the benefit can do for families and making it easier to use. A few examples include our new offering, Care Advising, which supports families with complex neurodiversity and senior care needs, a conversational AI-supported consumer navigation experience, and a more connected experience across our services through One Bright Horizons. Together, these and other initiatives support our long-term growth target of 11% to 13%. Turning to Full Service, revenue grew 1.3% to $522 million.
Tuition increases were partially offset by modestly lower enrollment, including continued contraction in Australia, and by the impact of center closures as we continue to rationalize the portfolio. We added two centers in the quarter, including a transition for a leading academic health system client. Occupancy averaged in the mid-60% range in the third quarter, a seasonal step down from the second quarter. Excluding Australia, enrollment in centers open more than one year declined roughly 50 basis points, while Australia's contraction was an additional roughly 100 basis point headwind to our overall enrollment. Last quarter, given the slowing pace of enrollment growth we had seen develop mid-year across our markets, we tempered our enrollment growth outlook for the second half of the year. Retention of enrolled families has remained steady.
That said, new family starts this fall have been softer than we anticipated, with the biggest change from our enrollment expectations being in the U.K. In late June, the U.K. childcare regulator published a group-wide notice requiring us to strengthen safeguarding governance and oversight across our U.K. nurseries. The impact of this was limited over the seasonally quieter summer months, but we did not sufficiently anticipate the duration or full effect it would have on new families' decisions in the fall enrollment season. In mid-September, the regulator issued an updated notice that recognized our progress, but nonetheless extended the review period. Because the fall enrollment season was only beginning late in the third quarter, we expect the larger impact on enrollment will be in the fourth quarter and until the notice is lifted.
Our focus is and always has been on safeguarding and the safety and wellbeing of the children in our care. This underpins our ability to generate and convert more inquiries, retain families as their children move through our programs, and partner with our employer clients to drive enrollment. We will also continue to optimize our portfolio, positioning our centers to serve employees of our client partners and working families where they live and work, as well as continue to close underperforming centers. In Australia, the operating environment remains challenging. A combination of real estate developer-driven supply growth alongside softening demand has pushed the industry, as well as our own occupancy, to multiyear lows. Our results in Q3 were in line with our expectations, but we have not seen signs that conditions will improve in the near term.
Following an updated assessment of the market's prospects, we recorded a non-cash impairment this quarter, which Elizabeth will cover. We are actively reviewing strategic alternatives in this market, and while we would defer further comment until we have something definitive to share, we are moving with urgency. At the same time, we continue to support our Australian educators who remain focused on delivering high-quality care and education for the children and families we serve. In Educational Advisory, revenue was $33 million, with continued growth in College Coach offset by lower participant use in EdAssist. Before I wrap up, I want to reflect on a particularly special moment for Bright Horizons. This fall, we came together to honor our 40th anniversary.
It was incredibly meaningful to have our founders, former leaders, and colleagues from across Bright Horizons together in one place, reflecting on how far we have come over four decades and the positive impact we have had on the lives of others. What began 40 years ago with a simple belief in supporting working families and employers has grown well beyond our first centers into a broad portfolio of education and care solutions. Over those four decades, we have navigated economic cycles, a global pandemic, and the changing needs of families and employers, and our ability to adapt while continuing to deliver for families and clients we serve has been an absolute constant. Through it all, the commitment to making a difference in the lives of children, families, learners, and employers remains at the heart of who we are.
I am incredibly proud of what this organization has built together and confident in our ability to capitalize on the opportunities ahead. In summary, this quarter showed continued strength in Back-Up Care in our employer-sponsored model, as well as opportunities for improvement. We are taking actions to strengthen safeguarding practices, rebuild enrollment in Full Service, and address challenges in Australia, while continuing to invest in and benefit from the long-term growth and opportunity in Back-Up Care. Notwithstanding our solid results through the third quarter, our revised outlook reflects the change in our expectations for the fourth quarter. As a result, we now expect revenue to be approximately $3.07 billion and adjusted EPS in the range of $4.98 to $5.03 per share.
With that, I will turn the call over to Elizabeth, who will walk through the quarter in more detail and share more on our outlook.
Elizabeth Boland
Thank you, Stephen, and hello to everyone who has joined our call tonight. I will begin with some overall financial highlights. Revenue for the third quarter grew 5% to $841 million, driven by continued top-line growth in both our Back-Up Care and Full Service segments. Adjusted operating income increased 5% to $130 million, and adjusted operating margin of 15.5% was consistent with the prior year quarter. Adjusted EBITDA increased 5% to $163 million, representing an adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.4%, also in line with last year. On the bottom line, adjusted EPS of $1.80 increased 15%, reflecting both operating income growth and the leverage we have realized from our share repurchases over the past year.
Taking a closer look at each of our three business lines, in Back-Up Care, revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $286 million, driven by growth in users and led by our programs for school-aged children over the summer months, as Stephen had outlined. Adjusted operating income of $101 million represents an operating margin of 35%. As is typical, the third quarter is our seasonal high point for backup use and margins, and we continue to expect full-year operating margins in the range of 28% to 30%, consistent with the outlook we provided earlier this year. In Full Service, revenue of $522 million grew 1.3% over the prior year quarter, driven primarily by tuition increases and offset by an approximately 200 basis point headwind from net center closures and an approximately 100 basis point headwind from enrollment declines in our Australia operations.
We ended the quarter with 979 centers, opening two, as Stephen said, while closing 11 centers, four of which were in Australia. Breaking down the enrollment stats a bit further, enrollment in centers that were open for the last year declined roughly 50 basis points in the third quarter, excluding the roughly 100 basis points of headwind from the enrollment contraction in Australia. Occupancy declined seasonally from the second quarter and averaged in the mid-60% range. With respect to the center cohorts we have discussed on prior calls, we continued to drive improvement at the lower end of the portfolio. Our top-performing cohort, centers above 70% occupancy, represented 42% of these centers in the third quarter.
Our bottom cohort, that is those with below 40% occupancy, improved to 9% of these centers from 12% in the prior year, reflecting both enrollment progress in centers moving up the occupancy curve, as well as the impact of exiting underperforming centers. Enrollment continued to grow in our middle and bottom cohorts, while the annual transition of preschoolers to kindergarten weighed on our top cohort, resulting in modest overall enrollment decrement in these centers, which still average more than 80% occupied. The total Full Service adjusted operating margins decreased 25 basis points to 3.7% in the quarter. Excluding Australia operating income, margins would have reflected an increase of 40 basis points over the prior year. Operating leverage from tuition increases ahead of wage growth and improved operational efficiency were offset by the lower enrollment.
As Stephen previewed, following our annual assessment of goodwill and other intangible assets for potential impairment, including an updated review of the longer-term outlook for our Australian operations, we recorded a non-cash goodwill impairment charge of $290 million and other intangible asset impairment charge of $4 million in the third quarter, all related to our international full service reporting unit, where Australia is grouped. Turning to educational advisory, revenue of $33 million declined slightly from the prior year quarter, while adjusted operating margin was 29%. I'll cover off a couple of other items on the P&L. Our net interest expense on debt borrowings of $17 million increased $7 million over the prior year and was up $3 million sequentially, due primarily to higher average balances outstanding and interest rates.
The structural effective tax rate on adjusted net income was 28.25% in the third quarter, which is higher than 2025, due primarily to the losses in Australia that are not currently deductible for tax purposes. Relative to the balance sheet through September of this year, we've generated $208 million in cash from operations, have made net fixed asset investments of $69 million, and have repurchased $560 million of stock. We ended Q3 with $119 million of cash and trailing net leverage of 2.4x net debt to adjusted EBITDA. Now, moving on to our updated 2026 outlook. As Stephen previewed, we are revising our full year guidance, and we now expect revenue to approximate $3.07 billion and adjusted EPS to be in the range of $4.98 to $5.03 a share. Looking now at each segment for the full year.
In Full Service, we expect reported revenue to grow approximately 2%, reflecting tuition increases offset by lower enrollment, approximately 200 basis points of headwind from net center closings, and approximately 100 basis points of headwind from Australia. In Back-Up Care, we expect growth of approximately 13% for the full year. In ed advisory, we expect revenue to be approximately flat with 2025. We're expecting $61 million to $62 million of interest expense for the full year and an adjusted effective tax rate of 28.25% with weighted average diluted shares of 51 million for the full year period. This full year outlook translates into Q4 overall revenue in the range of $730 million to $740 million and adjusted EPS in the range of $1.14 to $1.19 per share.
With that, Carrie, we are ready to go to Q&A.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] And our first question will come from Manav Patnaik with Barclays.
分析师问答
Ronan Kennedy
This is Ronan for Manav. With the U.K. and Australia facing the specific headwinds you cover, how did enrollment trend in the U.S. through the fall enrollment season, and what were the key drivers of what you saw, please?
Elizabeth Boland
Can you turn up the volume a little? The question was, what is enrollment?
Ronan Kennedy
U.S. enrollment.
Elizabeth Boland
In the third quarter?
Ronan Kennedy
In the third quarter, yes.
Elizabeth Boland
Yes. Overall, as mentioned on the call, the enrollment in the third quarter, excluding Australia, was down about 50 basis points. The enrollment, that decrement is mostly coming from the U.S. There is a bit of a decrement in the U.S., a bit higher than outside the U.S.
Ronan Kennedy
Got it. Any specific drivers to call out on that, please?
Stephen Kramer
Any specific drivers?
Elizabeth Boland
I didn't hear what he said.
Ronan Kennedy
Drivers of U.S. decrement.
Elizabeth Boland
The drivers of the decrement are mainly in new starters, and we have experienced pretty good retention on the family side, on families who are in the programs that we have. But the fall enrollment cycle is one where we see preschoolers graduating out into elementary school, and then we're in a rebuilding enrollment mode. It's primarily on a pace of new starters that we are seeing a little bit of a shortfall to what we had expected.
Stephen Kramer
Yes, and I think the only other thing I would add is that certainly, the cycling of the enrollment is really in that top cohort, right? And so when we think about the reality is those are still very well-occupied centers. On the other hand, that's the place also where the speed at which the children get backfilled does have an impact on the ultimate net enrollment growth.
Ronan Kennedy
Got it. And if I may, a follow-up on the Back-Up Care fourth quarter use bank constraint. I think you had said many employees are ahead in their annual use banks, and that this should dampen the Back-Up Care growth towards year-end. How significant is that effect in 4Q, and should we view that as just primarily timing, as I think inherently implied, and that benefit limit issue rather than any moderation in underlying engagement or demand?
Elizabeth Boland
Yes. It is primarily a timing issue, given that many of the users of our Back-Up Care service is one of the strengths of the program, are repeat users. And so they're most familiar with the program. They are more inclined to be reserving ahead and using their days as the year is unfolding. Newer users to the program, as you might imagine, may be more spread out. So we see that as a timing matter overall with the use growth at the pace that it is. The fact that we had such high growth in the second quarter and the third quarter is where we see the difference versus Q4 is not indicative of anything given the growth in new users that we've seen throughout.
Operator
Our next question will come from George Tong with Goldman Sachs.
Alex Lakritz
This is Alex Lakritz on for George Tong. You mentioned that the regulatory notice had a larger than anticipated impact on new family starts in the U.K. Once the notice is lifted, how should we think about the pace of enrollment recovery and whether there is going to be any lag between inquiries and actual starts?
Stephen Kramer
Yes. Look, I think that is really tough for us to know for sure. This is an action that the U.K. regulator took that is without precedent. Therefore, it is not something that we would know in terms of how quickly things will come back. What we do know is that we are working really diligently in the U.K. to ensure that we regain the confidence of the regulator in terms of our safeguarding efforts. Those actions started well ahead of the actual notice and continue to today, and will continue, as safeguarding is always our #1 priority. Our expectation is that, given that the market in general is strong, and that this is really reflective of a challenge that is unique to Bright Horizons, that we should see the pace of enrollment recovery come back following the lift of that notice.
Alex Lakritz
Got it. In Back-Up Care, with penetration still below 5% of eligible employees, could you talk a little bit about how utilization typically develops as the client relationship matures and any trends you are seeing amongst your longest-tenured clients?
Stephen Kramer
Sure. We have had a large number of clients for a large number of years, and we have many that would fall into the category that you just described. Certainly, what you have seen over the last, call it, four years is very strong growth, even among our "mature clients" in terms of their duration as being clients. We continue to see opportunity given the low penetration that we have, even within those clients that have been partners for a long time, to continue to grow. We see that as a real positive in terms of both our track record and our forward outlook.
Elizabeth Boland
Some of what we see with this is that certainly as a benefit is introduced, it has a little bit lower penetration in that initial year or 2 or 3 as it's getting more awareness within the company. Then the opportunity is greater. That's one factor on how we achieve better penetration. Our own tools for reaching employees have also improved over the last couple of years in terms of being able to. A registered family can tell us more about themselves, and we can be marketing in real time for events that are relevant to their family situation. In that way, as we are with a client for longer, there's more opportunity for the employees who are working there to become aware of us and also for the client, even in their own circumstances.
We've even seen with clients that are introducing a new care type, that it opens it up to a new group of employees, but also it's a productivity and retention tool for employees who are perhaps working in an environment where there have been some otherwise challenging business conditions for a client, and they find it highly valuable in that way.
Operator
Our next question will come from Andrew Steinerman with JPMorgan.
Andrew Steinerman
Yes. Historically, kind of center closings in a typical year, this is kind of further back, was 1% to 2%, and that was always kind of healthy pruning. As you look into '27, do you feel like the U.S. could get back to kind of, let's call it just a typical pruning year of centers after a bigger year this year? Do you feel like by the end of this year we might kind of rationalize the higher level of closings and move into a year that's kind of more typical? I am just talking about really kind of the U.S. here in terms of center closings.
Elizabeth Boland
Yes. We do have an elevated level of closures this year, Andrew. With 9% or so of our centers in that group that is sub 40% occupied, there is still a little bit of runway there as those centers come into focus to be able to be at the end or near the end of their lease life and to be exiting. We still would expect to be in a net center closing position in the U.S. in '27, given the centers that are still in that group that we have on the radar to likely be exiting given the enrollment trends we are seeing now.
Operator
Moving next to Jeff Meuler with Baird.
Jeffrey Meuler
Yes, thank you. I have a follow-up on the dampening effect of use bank utilization that you were talking to. I understand the concept, but I do not understand the maybe surprise factor, because I would think you had a pretty good sense going into Q3 of where the utilization stood, and Q3, at least revenue, was in your guidance range. I think you are steering the full year to the low end of the prior guidance range. If you could help me, what is the surprise factor or why is there more of an impact on Q4?
Stephen Kramer
Yes. Thanks, Jeff. What we would say is when we think about, and again, surprise factor would suggest that this was a sort of larger decrement than I think it deserves. What I would say is that we modulate between repeat users and new users. The reality is that as we went through the first nine months of the year, we saw a heavier emphasis on repeat users that ultimately were using and coming up against their full bank. I would say that again, as we enter Q4, our expectation is that we are probably going to be slightly lighter on new users, because normally those new users could have sequenced in Q3 and buoyed some of the growth. Instead, we saw repeat users using more of their bank, and so therefore that will have the impact on Q4.
Jeffrey Meuler
Okay. That is helpful. Then on Full Service enrollment, you alluded to actions to rebuild Full Service enrollment. Can you go into detail on what those are and maybe just your view of kind of the current environment? Because you are talking about kind of a challenging fall for the new intake, and I do not think you are the only one in the industry that has seen greater challenges lately. Just trying to think about what could be in your control versus what is outside of your control.
Elizabeth Boland
Yes. I think it is fair to observe that not only in the sector, but just in general with consumers, we're not operating in a vacuum. The overall sentiment out there with persistent inflation and general economic unease plays a part for any parent who's making these decisions and certainly for clients who are budget conscious. We do operate in that ecosystem. Some of the efforts that we have are very much focused on the funnel experience, if you will. Interested families, those who are hand raisers, ensuring that they have the most speedy and effective experience learning about the centers that are available, what would be having a center tour and being able to meet the team, having great follow-up that enables them to register in the timeline that works for them.
Being competitive, of course, so that experience on the marketing front and making sure that we have the right bear hug, if you will, around prospects is important. Having people get into our centers, you've heard us say that before, Jeff. That is where we feel like we really shine in terms of demonstrating what our curriculum looks like and what the teacher experience is and the dedicated professionals that are doing the care every day. But it is also certainly a factor to be competitive on price and to be making sure that we are in the market in all areas. We've been very focused on being sure that we are sensitive to that. The big factor that distinguishes Bright Horizons in the market is that we have so many client partners with whom we work, both in, for Back-Up Care business, but across our Full Service portfolio.
2/3 of the centers in the U.S. are our client-based centers. But leveraging those relationships where a client may not be the only sponsor, but has employees that work all over the country, is also an opportunity for us to be redoubling our efforts in that kind of outreach so that we are capturing those kinds of prospects. Those are some of the things.
Operator
We will go next to Josh Chan with UBS.
Joshua Chan
Just back on the U.S. enrollment. Are you attributing the softness largely to market effects and safeguarding the headlines may not have as big of an effect on the U.S. as it is in the U.K.? Is that fair?
Stephen Kramer
Yes. Look, Josh, I think that is a fair assertion, right? I think it is fair to say that the circumstances in the U.K. as it relates to the regulator and the challenge that we have with the notice and safeguarding, is certainly more acute. When we think about the situation here in the U.S., I would say that, certainly we are, as Elizabeth just went through, we are subject to the broader market environment. Granted, we do have that significant advantage of being able to work with our client partners, and I think that will continue as it has, to differentiate us and allow us to continue to outperform the general market.
Joshua Chan
That makes a lot of sense. Thank you, Stephen. On the Back-Up Care with the less new users, certainly it is very encouraging to see the existing users use the service. I guess for the reduced new users, is that a concern in terms of growth into the future years? Or how are you interpreting that reduced level of new users?
Elizabeth Boland
Yes. I do not know that we are not trying to imply there is fewer new users, Josh. We have a solid level of new users joining the Back-Up Care offer. My point was just that the new users come in over time. I am just trying to track through. If we said that is not what was intended. We have good new user growth and across all of our care types, that is also true.
Stephen Kramer
Yes, I think just to clarify, Josh, it really was about changing from our expectations in terms of the mix between new users and returning users, as opposed to feeling like there was a decrement anyway. It really was a change in how we expected the year to unfold. In the end, I am incredibly proud of what we were able to accomplish, and what we will accomplish for the full year. Again, continuing to focus on that long-term algorithm, that we stated earlier in the year.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] We will go next to Toni Kaplan with Morgan Stanley.
Toni Kaplan
I also wanted to ask about the U.K. issue. It has obviously been asked a few times already. Just talk about, is there anything that you are changing in terms of your policies to maybe strengthen oversight across maybe the whole business? I know reputation is such an important factor in childcare, and I know you take it very seriously. I was wondering if there is anything that you can do broadly across the centers to just strengthen oversight and things like that so that it does not continue to other geographies, et cetera.
Stephen Kramer
I appreciate the question and certainly appreciate the nod that you provided to the quality that we are really well-known for. What I would say is that in circumstances like this, one of the things that we are very focused on is first learning and then taking swift and appropriate action. In light of the incidents that we have had, we did learn, and we did really think about the actions that we wanted to take on top of what has been a 40-year history of strong safeguarding measures. I will give you a couple of examples, Toni, of things that we are and continue to implement against, as it relates to things that are additional. As an example, we are going to be. We have already started to roll out, the implementation of cameras in Bright Horizons centers here in the U.S. and in the U.K.
That is ongoing. We believe will be an added safeguarding measure to the oversight that obviously is most important, which is leadership in classrooms and making sure that there is appropriate checks and balances between teachers in classrooms. In addition to that, we are partnering with a leading firm that has great expertise in safeguarding. Really taking an outside-in perspective and really looking to make sure that if there is anything that we can learn through that level of expertise, that we do so. The third piece is that we are taking our technology really seriously. In addition to cameras, technology in the classrooms, and making sure that we are doing everything to safeguard the use of that technology within the classrooms.
What I would say overall is, yes, we are proud of our safeguarding over 40 years, and yes, we are adding additional safeguards into it. That is something that we are taking very seriously.
Toni Kaplan
Yes. On technology, I was wondering if AI and LLM search is changing how parents are finding your centers and if you're making any changes to your marketing strategy at all as a result of any trends that you're seeing there. For example, I know if someone types in "find a center near me" or something like that, sometimes it doesn't necessarily take into account the quality or brand name and things like that. Maybe it just finds something more local and wondering how you're dealing with, or maybe don't even have to deal with, but how AI and LLM search is changing in the industry. Thanks.
Stephen Kramer
Absolutely. We are absolutely taking steps to make our organization and our centers more discoverable through LLMs, and recognize that people are starting their research, in many cases, in that way. Absolutely gearing more to that. We're doing that, and responding to that by doing more videos and other things that are very responsive to LLMs and allowing for the LLMs to pick up and discover better. I would say in addition to that, we also recognize that we're going into a stage where people are utilizing agents to actually start to do research and ultimately, to look for things like tours of centers. We've been focusing a lot on availability of tours, knowing that when it's no longer a human and rather an agent that is seeking, availability actually becomes a really important criteria.
That's to give you a little bit of color to the fact that our marketing organization is being really responsive to these changing habits of the consumers that we're looking to attract and ultimately, focusing on that discoverability and differentiation of what we have on offer.
Operator
Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets has our next question.
Ryan Griffin
This is Ryan on for Jeff. I was just wondering how you're thinking about the tuition pricing for full service next year.
Elizabeth Boland
It's early for guiding for next year, so we are certainly in the process of completing our annual budget process and, as I mentioned before, being very mindful of staying competitive. We make these decisions center by center, frankly, locally, but also on average, would estimate that we'd be at the lower end of our historical range of 3% to 4% on average. Looking at that, staying competitive and ensuring that we are in the best position for enrollment capture. That's what we're thinking at this point.
Ryan Griffin
I appreciate it. Elizabeth, given the Back-Up Care margins that are embedded in guidance, was wondering if you are able to provide the Full Service and the ed advisory margins as well for 2026? Is there any way we should be thinking about the margin ramp for Full Service next year as we kind of anniversary some of the outsized closures this year, and maybe the Australia impact is a little bit more de minimis.
Elizabeth Boland
Yes. For 2026, in Full Service, we would be expecting for the full year to be broadly flat with 2025, up roughly 70 basis points or so ex Australia. Overall, that is the picture for the year. That translates to more of a down 75 bps in Q4 and flat excluding Australia just in the quarter itself, given the enrollment decrement there. That is the Full Service business. For ed advising, we would expect Q4 to be similar to last year. Broadly speaking, that is the guide for margin there. In 2027, it is early given the view that we are coming out of this year on a headwind with enrollment. It is something that we will need to look to guide, I think, later in the next quarter in terms of actual margin performance next year.
We have been pleased even with the enrollment decrement we saw this quarter. Again, looking at it ex Australia, even with the 50 basis point downdraft, we were able to leverage margins about 40 basis points. There is good awareness there on how we do manage for the enrollment we have, and we will continue to gain some benefit from the closures of underperformers, and that is some of the piece parts that are going into this that will inform next year when we give more extensive guidance in February.
Operator
Moving on to Stephanie Moore with Jefferies. Stephanie, your line is open.
Stephanie Benjamin Moore
I wanted to just touch a little bit about what you're seeing maybe as we get into, or as we're in the back-to-school season. I do think there's been maybe some, unfortunately, more negative publicity or headlines in the last 9, 12 months than we've seen in the past, and maybe it's just we seem to be more prone to seeing a lot of these headlines, whether the cadence is actually maybe not higher or not, but unfortunately, it's kind of the world we're in, unfortunately, in some respects. But I just was curious if you're seeing some of the negative publicity having an impact on enrollment trends or if there's any difference in what you're seeing from enrollment trends or existing family retention.
At the same time, if there's anything you're doing behind the scenes to help from a marketing standpoint as well. Thank you.
Stephen Kramer
Sure. I assume you're talking about headlines related to employers' actions around reducing workforce. Is that correct?
Stephanie Benjamin Moore
I would say those headlines. I do think there just seems to be more and more headlines just in childcare in general, accidents, unfortunately, with the teachers, and it just tends to be maybe a bit more from a negative publicity standpoint. Yes, both sides of that. Exactly.
Stephen Kramer
Yes. Sure. I think from a workforce perspective, again, I think that as we think about the centers here in the U.S. that are in partnership with employers, we still continue to see good enrollment in those centers. And so feel good about how those centers are sized and how important we are as a resource and as a support for working families within those employers. Certainly the layoffs, when they become more acute than I think they are now, that can be challenging. On the other hand, it does not seem that it is sort of a direct cause and effect. What I would point to is the strength of the retention of our families, right? And so ultimately, that for us is a really good bellwether as it relates to the impact that may be out there.
But the reality is we're seeing really strong retention of our families. Look, in terms of the childcare market more broadly, I think that what we're talking about is a really important support for working families. I think the reality is that people recognize, despite the headlines that may exist, that this still represents a very safe and secure form of care. And when you compare it, for example, against one individual being in your home with your child, obviously, group care really does stand out as a very safe and appropriate set of care arrangements, along with the fact that parents are often looking for socialization, curriculum, and some of the things that we really stand out on.
Again, I think that from our perspective, we're really focused around making sure that we continue to deliver and deliver high quality and continue to take additional measures on safeguarding to give families the confidence that we are the right provider, and more generally, childcare centers are the right form of care.
Stephanie Benjamin Moore
I appreciate it. And maybe I missed this earlier, but did you call out the potential for further center rationalization across the broader portfolio, I guess particularly in the U.K. and U.S.? And my apologies if I missed it.
Elizabeth Boland
We didn't speak to some broader portfolio rationalization. It continues to be top of mind for us to right-size our portfolio, and we have reduced the number of centers that are in the most challenged enrollment cohort, that sub 40% enrolled cohort. We have been closing centers. We have an elevated level of closures this year. Have closed 42 through September and still have another, call it somewhere around 20 probably to close through the rest of this year. We will continue to make progress on that group of underperformers. It is part and parcel of our overall ensuring that we're in the right footprint to serve both working families where they live and work, but also employers' needs as well. That work is ongoing.
I think that the storyline in Australia is sort of a separate question, but in the rest of our portfolio, we'll continue to look to have the portfolio right-sized.
Stephen Kramer
Great. Well, thank you all very much. Appreciate your time and support this evening, and wishing you all a great Halloween.
Elizabeth Boland
Thank you.
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day.
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