美洲沿海保险 (ACIC) 2026年第三季度业绩电话会：综合成本率64.7%，E&S业务拓展

核心要点

• 美东沿海保险公司（American Coastal Insurance Corporation）公布2026年第三季度净利润为1940万美元，核心收益为2040万美元，核心净资产收益率超过24%。
• 综合成本率为64.7%。剔除当年巨灾损失和往年准备金发展后，基础综合成本率从上年同期的57.8%升至68.4%。
• 尽管平均账户费率下降，总签单保费仍同比增长3.2%。年初至今生效保单数量增长约7%，而账户留存率保持在近90%。
• 股东权益较2025年底增长12%至3.557亿美元。每股账面价值增长15.5%至7.52美元。
• 新获得执照的ACES Specialty将支持公司的长期超额及剩余险（E&S）战略。Skyway Underwriters预计将于2026年12月开始通过第三方承保公司承揽业务。
• 管理层表示，若第四季度未发生重大巨灾损失，超额资本可用于支持发放特别股息。第三季度未回购任何股票。

关键财务数据

业务与运营业绩

American Coastal继续专注于佛罗里达州商业住宅财产保险。管理层强调，续保业务的盈利能力通常高于新业务，因此近90%的账户留存率成为公司的核心运营重点。

保费价格走软对核心投资组合构成压力。管理层确认，剔除860万美元的超额及剩余险保费是评估本季度基础总签单保费趋势的合理方式。来自AmRisc全国业务组合参与份额的增长抵消了部分疲软态势。

ACES Specialty已获得正式执照，作为公司长期超额及剩余险扩张的基石。短期内，Skyway Underwriters计划通过具备所需财务评级和州执照的第三方承保公司开展业务。作为总承保代理（MGA），其业务渠道中已有投保申请，并已对多个项目完成审核与报价。

随着时间推移，ACES预计将自留大部分承保风险。Skyway也可能代表外部承保能力提供方承保，从而产生服务费收入，而American Coastal对某些风险仅保留极少或较小的共同参与份额。管理层表示，这种基于合作伙伴的模式可以扩大规模并提升多元化水平，超出ACES单打独斗的能力范围。

管理层展望

管理层未提供正式的2027年营收或收益指引。公司预计在完成预测后，将于1月发布投资者演示文稿并举行电话会议。

American Coastal表示，2027年总签单保费、已赚保费和总营收有可能实现同比增长。然而，新业务规模以及承保收益与服务费收入的构成比例仍处于测算阶段。管理层补充称，初步模型表明，即使保费费率出现两位数下降，营收仍有可能实现增长。

保单获客成本率预计将保持相对稳定。由于通过第三方承保公司出单时会产生出具保费（fronting fees），超额及剩余险的获客成本将略高，但管理层预计2027年整体成本率不会发生剧烈变化。

公司预计无需补充资本即可实现长期收益增长的核心目标。管理层表示，如果第四季度未出现重大巨灾损失，可能会考虑发放特别股息。预计飓风“伊赛亚斯”（Hurricane Isaias）对第四季度的影响有限，不太可能影响董事会对该特别股息的考量。

风险与关注领域

• 商业财产险定价依然走软且竞争激烈。管理层指出部分市场参与者的行为较为激进，并预计竞争态势将持续至2027年。
• 保费费率进一步下降的节奏尚不确定。管理层预计降幅将有所放缓，但提醒称市场仍处于动态变化中。
• ACES必须完成AM Best评级流程以及各州的白名单要求。部分州设有三年的运营资历（seasoning）规定，要求该公司在此过渡期间借助已建立合作关系的承保伙伴。
• 超额及剩余险的增长在一定程度上取决于达成第三方承保能力协议，目前相关谈判仍在进行中。
• 第四季度的巨灾损失可能会影响资本回报决策。

分析师问答环节点评

管理层预计Skyway与第三方承保公司的合作关系将在2027年开始贡献服务费收入，但将具体的营收和盈利目标推迟至明年1月公布。

在定价方面，管理层表示同比下降20%不可持续，并指出费率恶化速度已开始放缓。公司预计再保险成本的变动将对价格变动形成相当甚至更大的抵消作用，从而有助于维持承保利润率。

关于ACES，管理层表示从第三方承保公司过渡至自建资产负债表在运营层面上较为直接，尽管获得评级和各州准入资质仍需时间。即使在ACES完全投入运营后，外部承保合作伙伴关系预计仍将保持战略重要性。

管理层不认为ACES的资本能力是短期限制因素。管理层指出，再保险能够控制净自留风险并减少对额外资本的需求。如果市场趋紧且条款改善带来更快速扩张的机会，届时可能会考虑筹集额外资本。

业绩电话会议完整文字记录

完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the American Coastal Insurance Corporation Q3 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]. I will now hand the conference over to Bennett Bradford Martz, President and CEO.

Brad, please go ahead.

B. Martz

Thank you. Before beginning our commentary, I must first ask everyone to please see Page 2 of our earnings presentation for more information regarding forward-looking statements. During the third quarter of 2026, American Coastal continued to maintain its market leadership position in Florida commercial residential property insurance, evidenced by: one, strong account retention near 90%; two, policy in force growth of roughly 7% year-to-date; three, a 3.2% increase in gross premiums written during the current quarter compared to the same period a year ago despite downward pressure on average account rates. And finally, but most importantly, delivering a combined ratio of 64.7%, which fueled a core return on equity of over 24%. While our core business continues to produce great results, I'm very excited about how American Coastal's business profile is evolving. During the quarter, we announced our new E&S carrier, ACES Specialty, was formally licensed, and it will be the cornerstone of controlling our E&S growth strategy over the long term. In the near term, we remain on track to formally produce and underwrite our first new E&S property insurance policies on or about the end of the 2026 hurricane season, utilizing one or more third-party carriers who already have the financial rating and licenses needed to commence this important strategic initiative. Our MGA, Skyway, Underwriters, already has several submissions in the pipeline. We have cleared and quoted many of these. So it's reasonable to expect we will bind some new business in December. Given the challenges with soft market conditions in commercial property insurance, our strategy is to remain very selective and disciplined in both the admitted and the non-admitted commercial property markets. Thus, I'm compelled to reiterate that while top line growth is nice when new business makes sense, our focus remains locked in on underwriting profitability and risk-adjusted returns on capital. It's currently premature to provide any revenue or earnings guidance for 2027. Our historical process for sharing that annual forward-looking information has been to publish an investor presentation and host a call in January once we have finalized those estimates. The commercial property market remains very dynamic and competitive with some players doing very reckless and irresponsible things to win new business. This is likely to persist into 2027, but I do expect things to moderate compared to the changes in pricing, terms and conditions American Coastal experienced this year. ACIC will not require any additional capital to achieve our primary goal of earnings growth over time. We have made the investments required to expand our business and still have excess capital that could be returned to shareholders through a special dividend, assuming no significant catastrophe losses occur in the fourth quarter. Hurricane Isaias will have a minor impact on our fourth quarter, but it is unlikely to influence our Board's consideration of declaring a special dividend later this year. I'll now turn it over to our Chief Financial Officer, Lana Castle, for more specifics on our financial results. Lana?

Svetlana Castle

Thank you, Brad, and hello. I'll provide the financial update, but encourage everyone to review the company's press release, earnings and investor presentations and Form 10-Q for more information regarding our performance. As reflected on Page 7 of the earnings presentation, American Coastal demonstrated another strong quarter with net income of $19.4 million. Core income was $20.4 million, a decrease of $10.1 million, driven by softening market conditions, but the company still produced a strong core return on equity over 24%. Our non-GAAP underlying combined ratio, which excludes current year catastrophe losses and prior year development, was 68.4% compared to 57.8% in the prior year. We continue to demonstrate underwriting discipline through the market cycle. As shown on Page 15 of our presentation, revenues decreased $19.7 million. Expenses decreased $4 million in the current year, driven by favorable prior year development and lower operating expenses quarter-over-quarter. Page 16 shows balance sheet highlights. Cash and investments have increased 9.3% from year-end. The company's liquidity position remains strong. Stockholders' equity increased $38.1 million or 12% to $355.7 million, driven by our underwriting results. Book value per share is $7.52, a 15.5% increase from year-end 2025. The company is well positioned to navigate the shifting market and capitalize on growth opportunities. This concludes our prepared remarks. We'll now open the floor for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from the line of Michael Phillips with Oppenheimer.

分析师问答

Michael Phillips

Brad, it might be too early to talk about this. I'm not sure. As we think about the ACES and Skyway -- and the platform there for [ AMS ], is it possible to think about the difference between fee income in '27 versus how much you retain on an underwriting risk basis?

B. Martz

Thanks for the question, Mike. Yes, it is probably a little early to talk about that. We are working on sourcing various forms of capacity for Skyway, one of which would be a fee income earning opportunity for our MGA. So some of the premium we expect to generate and business we expect to underwrite next year will lead to growth in fee income beginning in 2027. But I'd like to defer getting into the specifics of that until our -- we preview our revenue and profitability metrics early next year. My guess is we will be able to demonstrate some nice top line growth year-over-year when comparing '27 to '26, both in terms of gross premiums written, gross premiums earned, net premiums earned and total revenues. I do think we have some very positive momentum in our business right now regarding our growth initiatives. That just has to be tempered, obviously, by good cycle management. So while we're optimistic and still feel very comfortable underwriting in the current pricing environment, how much business we actually produce next year is still -- our plans are still being developed and finalized. And how much of that will result in fee income growth to the company is also still being determined.

Michael Phillips

Okay. That's fair. Look forward to that in January. I know it would be a good conversation. This might be the same answer then. Obviously, lots of moving parts as we try to figure out, I guess, a net acquisition ratio given all the different growth commission rates, rates are changing, the AmRisc participation, obviously, if I can add. So all those moving parts. Is there anything we can take away tonight to think about how to remodel that for 2027 given obviously, the drop in our net earned premium, a lot of moving parts there.

B. Martz

Well, I think the ratio should be relatively consistent going forward. Obviously, we haven't -- there is some amortization of deferred post acquisition costs that is understating the current run rate on a fully earned basis. But there'll be a slight increase there, but certainly, the net impact on our ability to grow earnings will not be a significant headwind for us. So policy acquisition costs on the E&S side are obviously slightly higher because of fronting fees that we expect to incur as we produce business through other third-party carriers and transform that risk to ourselves and others. But overall, I think the PAC ratio is not going to move all that dramatically next year.

Michael Phillips

Okay. On the gross written premium, is it fair to just back out that $8.6 million from E&S to get a sense of what the underlying book did this quarter?

B. Martz

Yes. I think that's fair.

Michael Phillips

Okay. Okay. Good. And then, I mean, you've got, as you said, a continuation of a pretty soft environment. So if you do that, you're down 9% or so, which is not bad at all given the rate environment. Anything you can talk about which is retentions and renewal pricing and exposure change, anything else that might be an offset to those pretty sharp declines in pricing?

B. Martz

The renewal business account retention is one key factor we're paying close attention to. Renewal business tends to be a lot more profitable than writing new business. So keeping that account retention as high as possible is priority one. So we're doing a great job on that front. Both AmRisc and Skyway are working hard to retain our best business. So that's going great. But the market is the market. We don't control the rate environment. We just -- we will be able to overcome some of that loss of premium through rate change via writing some new business as well as growth in the E&S side of the house. That is obviously, step one of that with the co-participation in the nationwide portfolio underwritten by AmRisc is great. That's really helping offset some of the premium weakness this year. But that will really be more than fully offset next year and why I expect it's possible, it's feasible to see revenue growth year-over-year, if rates continue to be in decline, yes, because that's the thing. I mean how much rates continues to decline next year is anyone's guess. We have -- we have targeted an estimate, at least preliminary for financial modeling purposes. But even inclusive of a double-digit rate decrease next year, we still feel like revenue growth is possible because of this evolving and expanding business profile.

Michael Phillips

Okay. Just last one real quick, I guess, because you mentioned whatever may happen in the fourth quarter and what that might do to a possibility of a special dividend. Just to confirm, I didn't see any share repurchase this quarter, just confirm that was the case.

B. Martz

I can confirm there were no share repurchases during the third quarter.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Bill Dezellem with Tieton Capital Management.

William Dezellem

So, Brad, you mentioned in your opening remarks that you believe that the price decline next year will moderate. Would you talk through the background of what's prompting you to think that?

B. Martz

Several factors. Obviously, there's an expectation of only writing business that can produce a solid return on capital. So there's only so much rate decrease. I think we're expecting and our reinsurers are expecting based on changes that have already occurred. So as we look forward, we just feel that, that will be the case. The current velocity of rate change is slowing down a little bit. That was not necessarily true for the first half of the year and some of that bled into the third quarter for sure. But 20% year-over-year decline is not sustainable. Prices aren't going to continue to freefall like that. So an adjustment was warranted. The operating environment is very competitive, and there's lots of excess capital out there. Obviously, no storms will continue to exacerbate that a little bit as capital remains hungry. But from our perspective, regardless of what happens with -- in the industry, we're going to be looking to moderate what we underwrite going forward. So we'll see if that prediction holds true, but I do think that it's reasonable that whatever rate change we experience, we're going to see a very, very similar, if not greater offset on the change of our cost of reinsurance. So those are the 2 things we like to keep in focus. And our pricing has always followed our cost of capital on the reinsurance side. We've kept those 2 things very much aligned since our inception, and that's how we continue to maintain margin in the business.

William Dezellem

That's very helpful. And then you made reference to the E&S market and the way that you're approaching that now using others' balance sheets and then that will ultimately shift to ACES once that is up and running. Would you walk us through how you envision that transition taking place and whether it's just truly as simple as you're doing the exact same thing, just given to ACES as opposed to an external party or if there's something more -- for lack of a better word, something more complicated to it.

B. Martz

No, it really is that simple. I think part of it is having good strong partners that can provide additional capacity will just allow us to underwrite more business. That's the bottom line. So the more capacity the MGA has, the better. Most of that will be retained by the company, but we do envision a partnership with one capacity provider who has a Lloyd's syndicate that we are hopeful to write on behalf of that will generate fee income where we will not be the primary risk taker. We could take a small co-participation in the business we underwrite on their behalf. But for the most part, that relationship, which is obviously very -- still in negotiations and in development and nowhere near complete. But we're being thoughtful and we're excited about the prospect of being able to start underwriting on behalf of other third parties next year. So initially, the business will be transformed to our balance sheet because we want to utilize our capital and continue to earn strong returns on our capital. The build-out of ACES is really a function of getting the rating process with AM Best will take time. The whitelisting process in the various states will take time. For example, there are states that have 3-year seasoning requirements out there that will prohibit ACES from being a direct writer of new business. So that's -- we're not going to let that stop us. We will partner with carriers that have already meet those requirements and write the business. And the quicker we can transform business to ACES, I guess, theoretically, the better given the potential profitability enhancement. But we see strategic value long term in continuing to partner with other carriers that can allow Skyway to build a meaningful E&S risk portfolio. Size, scale, diversification will be important to our long-term success. And if I look out 5 years, I can definitely see a dramatically different mix of business at our company as a result of having various partners and not just being solely dependent on ACES's balance sheet for growth.

William Dezellem

And so Brad, to carry that one step further, just to be sure that we are clear here, long term, not in the short term, but long term, the amount of business that you see potentially out there is greater than what ACES's capital would allow and maybe even in some in some areas that ACES may not be interested in taking risk on. But that is not going to stop you all from having Skyway be able to do that essentially or write that business as for a fee on behalf of others. Is that the right way to think about that?

B. Martz

Yes, I do believe so. We are, first and foremost, a balance sheet underwriter. We're an underwriting shop. And to the extent it makes sense to deploy our capital, we will. But certainly, having partners who can help us build this risk portfolio and earn service fees is part of our short- and long-term strategy.

William Dezellem

And it is probably premature for me to ask this question, but that won't stop me from seeing what you might want to add here. But at what point do you think that the amount of business that Skyway will be in a position to write will exceed the amount of capital that ACES has and is able to take on even if they wanted to.

B. Martz

I don't think that's a real risk in the near term. I mean, longer term, it's certainly possible, but I think that's something that's beyond 5 years. We -- remember, we can always control the amount of net risk we retain via reinsurance. So if ACES is capitalized with $100 million and is properly rated, we believe utilizing reinsurance is going to be the easiest way to manage the net premium risk to the company to avoid having to raise additional capital. But to the extent that let's just assume for a second, maybe the market shifts or it hardens and terms and conditions improve dramatically, then maybe it would -- it could make sense to add capital and move faster to capitalize on that opportunity. We'll just have to see.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.