Ventas (VTR) 2026年第三季度业绩电话会议：SHOP增长推动FFO指引上调

核心要点

• Ventas公布2026年第三季度标准化FFO为每股0.99美元，同比增长10%，主要得益于全公司同店现金NOI增长11%。
• 同店SHOP现金NOI增长16%，其中美国市场增长17%。营业收入增长8.3%，同店现金NOI利润率扩大190个基点至30.7%。
• SHOP平均入住率环比提升120个基点，同比提升290个基点。美国SHOP入住率维持在89%，管理层将其视为多年期增长机遇。
• Ventas上调全年标准化FFO指引至每股3.87-3.90美元，相当于年增长率达到9%-10%。中值上调0.01美元，主要是由于2026年的老年住房投资。
• 年初至今投资额通过37笔交易达到52亿美元，高于此前预期指引中的45亿美元。预计首年平均收益率为6.6%。
• 净负债/EBITDA改善至4.4倍，为公司十多年来的最佳杠杆水平，同时可用流动资金为45亿美元。

关键财务数据

业务与运营表现

老年住房仍是主要的增长引擎。同店SHOP现金NOI现已连续17个季度实现双位数增长。总体平均入住率同比上升290个基点，美国市场同比上升320个基点，其中独立生活设施的入住率上升340个基点。

Ventas表示，自2023年第一季度以来，其SHOP组合累计超越NIC入住率基准近600个基点。较高的入住率也为定价提供了支撑：入住率达到95%的社区产生了约7%的RevPOR增长。处于或接近满员入住的资产组合比例从上一季度的10%增加到15%。

运营杠杆持续改善。新增利润转化率达到53%，据管理层表示，处于最高入住率区间的社区产生约70%的边际利润。公司指出，奢华型独立生活资产通常能提供最强的运营杠杆。

Ventas OI作为公司的数据与分析平台，为运营商选择、定价、销售、资本配置及费用对标提供支持。管理层指出，运营费用增长率一直保持在2%以下，同时强调成本控制不会以牺牲护理或服务质量为代价。

除SHOP之外，门诊医疗与研究资产组合实现了2.5%的同店现金NOI增长。门诊医疗增长4%，且入住率连续第九个季度实现增长。三净租赁组合由于协商好的租金上涨，实现了超过8%的同店现金NOI增长。

投资活动与资产负债表

Ventas年初至今完成了52亿美元的投资，集中于老年住房，分布在37笔交易中。自2024年初以来，以成本计算的外延式增长已超过100亿美元，将SHOP版图扩大了35%以上。

2026年的老年住房收购项目的平均预期首年收益率为6.6%，平均每单元成本约为34.6万美元。管理层承销这些交易时预计的10年无杠杆IRR介于10%出头至15%左右之间。

今年收购的资产中，约70%为当地市场的奢华龙头，20%为超奢华物业，10%为中端市场龙头。Ventas表示，公司并非以平价型老年住房或按稳定价值购买的交钥匙开发项目为目标。

公司通过47亿美元的权益资本、资产处置和承担债务，为其年初至今的投资活动提供了资金。Ventas还计划继续将非核心资产回收的资金用于SHOP投资。

管理层指引

Ventas将2026财年每股标准化FFO指引从先前的预期上调至3.87-3.90美元。新的区间意味着年增长率达到9%-10%。

指引中值上调0.01美元反映了2026年老年住房投资带来的0.02美元收益，但部分被更高的利率和汇率变动带来的0.01美元不利影响所抵消。

净利润指引上调至每股0.64-0.67美元。Ventas重申了各个业务板块及全公司的同店现金NOI指引。

该预期仅包含已完成的52亿美元投资。此外还假设对即将在近期到期的债务进行再融资。公司计划按7%的收益率完成的7亿美元资产处置和贷款偿还中，大部分预计将在第四季度完成。

管理层预计明年的内部租金上涨幅度将处于与前一年约8%的水平相当或更高的水平，同时强调规划仍处于早期阶段。公司未提供2027年的业绩展望。

风险与关注点

较高的利率和汇率变动使更新后的每股FFO指引中值减少了0.01美元。管理层还指出，债务成本的变化可能会影响收购竞争、卖家定价和资本化率，尽管其影响可能会滞后显现。

尽管入住率有所提升，但SHOP利润率环比下降了20个基点。管理层将这一变化归因于该季度增加了一个运营日以及公共事业费用上升，并形容各季度的利润率走向为不均衡的。

收购市场依然充满竞争。Ventas表示，其基于关系的项目获取渠道、财务实力以及无需融资前置条件即可完成交割的能力增强了其竞争地位，但并非所有可用资产都符合其回报要求。

公司还必须对未来几个月到期的债务进行再融资。其全年指引建立在这些再融资顺利完成的假设之上。

分析师问答要点

• 入住率与定价：管理层表示，较高的入住率对现有租户租金上涨和新入住租金均形成支撑。内部租金上涨仍是RevPOR的主要驱动因素，但新入住定价近期有所走强。
• 利润率潜力：不存在一个能使边际利润率从大约50%提升至70%的单一入住率门槛。产品类型、定价和护理强度都会产生影响，尽管入住率最高的社区产生的边际利润率已达到70%左右。
• 收购回报：Ventas坚持认为，通过入住率复苏、费率增长和针对性的资本改良，其收购项目可产生10%出头至15%左右的无杠杆IRR。超过90%的投资额是通过关系渠道获取的。
• 资产组合结构：公司倾向于提供连续性护理的大型老年住房社区，包括独立生活、协助生活和失智护理。独立生活设施近期实现了最强劲的入住率增长。
• Brookdale过渡资产：管理层表示，前Brookdale过渡资产组合的表现处于非同店组合中偏强的一端，在可比基础上实现了约120个基点的入住率环比增长。
• 地理区域优先级：美国仍是SHOP收购的主要市场。管理层将加拿大描述为一个高入住率、持续增长的组合，但表示其长期增长前景不如美国吸引人；英国仍受关注，但优先级较低。

业绩电话会议完整文字记录

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完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to Ventas, Inc. Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]

I will now hand the conference to BJ Grant, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. BJ, please go ahead.

Bill Grant

Thank you, Chase. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Ventas Third Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. Yesterday, we issued our third quarter 2026 earnings release, presentation materials and supplemental information package, which are available on the Ventas website at ir.ventasreit.com.

As a reminder, remarks today may include forward-looking statements and other matters. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and a variety of topics may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in such statements. For a more detailed discussion of those factors, please refer to our earnings release for this quarter and to our most recent SEC filings, all of which are available on the Ventas website. Certain non-GAAP financial measures will also be discussed on this call, and for a reconciliation of these measures to the most closely comparable GAAP measures, please refer to our supplemental information package posted on the Investor Relations website.

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Debra Cafaro, Chairman and CEO of Ventas.

Debra Cafaro

Thank you, BJ. I also want to welcome all of our shareholders and other participants, including our newest Ventas colleague, Andy Wattula, to the Ventas Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call.

Ventas delivered strong enterprise results and growth in the quarter as we execute our 123 strategy. Our senior housing operating portfolio now in its fifth year of double-digit organic growth powered our results and our significant shop investment activity enhanced our outlook. In an environment of rapid change, the Ventas investment thesis remains consistent and clear. Our $60 billion enterprise generates performance from nearly 1,500 physical assets serving the need-based secular demand of a large and growing aging population.

Ventas is one of the rare growthy businesses that is neither AI-focused nor AI correlated. In addition, our strong and improving financial profile provides stability and opportunity amid volatile capital market conditions. As a result, we are well positioned to thrive in a variety of economic environments.

Within that context, our team remains focused on using our high-quality portfolio, differentiated platform, operating expertise, deep industry relationships and data advantages to fuel our momentum and deliver outperformance at scale. Our excellent results demonstrate the power of our enterprise and our position as the world's second largest owner of senior housing.

U.S. Shop same-store cash NOI grew 17% in the quarter, contributing to our 11% total company same-store cash NOI growth. The first prong of our 123 strategy is capturing organic shop growth through rate and occupancy. Strong rate growth was coupled with shop occupancy outperformance in the quarter. Same-store average occupancy grew 120 basis points sequentially, driven by Ventas OI. This continues a multiyear trend of materially outpacing industry benchmark. In fact, our SHOP portfolio has grown occupancy at twice the pace of the NIC average since 2023, generating nearly 600 basis points of incremental outperformance during that period. And yet, our U.S. SHOP properties remain only 89% occupied, supporting a multiyear runway ahead for durable occupancy rate and NOI growth.

I want to thank our Ventas colleagues and operators for their strong execution and commitment to outstanding senior care and services in our communities.

Our third quarter normalized FFO per share of $0.99 represents 10% growth year-over-year, and our credit profile continued its significant multiyear improvement trend as we ended the quarter with net debt to EBITDA in the low 4x. We are pleased to again increase our full year FFO per share guidance to $3.89 primarily because of our 2026 investment activity.

The Ventas strategy is built to capture unprecedented durable demographic demand. Now more than ever, individuals and their families are attracted by the benefits of safety, socialization and support provided in our senior housing communities at a cost comparable to aging at home. The baby boomer generation, a cohort of nearly 70 million individuals and the wealthiest generation in history began turning 80 this year, and we are just now stepping into the period of enormous growth in our customer base as the U.S. senior population is expected to expand 28% over the next 5 years and remain elevated for over a decade.

Yet construction starts of new senior housing units hover at record lows with a poultry 1,000 units being started in the quarter. With at least a 3-year start to finish development cycle and increased construction costs, we should enjoy these powerful tailwinds supporting our growth for the foreseeable future. Our business and team at Ventas are built to meet this moment, capitalize on these trends and continue to outperform the industry at scale.

The second prong of our strategy, of course, is to aggressively expand our SHOP footprint through attractive acquisitions designed to enhance our enterprise growth rate. Our investment momentum is strong. And year-to-date, we've closed more than $5 billion of SHOP investments, which are expected to produce double-digit to mid-teens unlevered IRRs and year 1 average yields in the mid-6s.

Our pipeline remains robust, and we are actively advancing actionable shop investment opportunities to build on our success and expand our SHOP business. As a long-term industry participant with nearly 1,000 senior housing communities, we have built a significant competitive moat, including our relationships, platform, data, team, financial strength and operating experiences. These advantages, coupled with our right market, right asset, right operator framework, drive our investment decisions, keep our win rate high and help our acquired communities and operators outperform after closing. With the recent global move in interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty, our competitive position has strengthened even further.

To close, the entire Ventas team is unified and excited about the opportunities for a multiyear growth and value creation ahead. We remain focused on winning together and delivering outperformance at scale as we help people live longer, healthier and happier lives.

And now I'm pleased to turn the call over to Justin.

J. Hutchens

Thank you, Debbie. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. The third quarter reflected continued strong execution across our senior housing operating portfolio and our investment platform. I'll cover 4 areas: our SHOP results, the OI platform supporting them, the pace and quality of our external growth and the outlook for the business.

Let me start with the SHOP results. Same-store shop cash NOI grew 16% year-over-year, led by our U.S. portfolio of 17%. Revenue grew 8.3%, benefiting from both occupancy and rate growth. This marks the 17th consecutive quarter in a row of double-digit shop NOI growth. Average occupancy increased 120 basis points sequentially and 290 basis points year-over-year overall, and 320 basis points in the U.S., led by independent living, which is up 340 basis points. Growth was broad-based across markets, community types and operators. RevPOR grew 5%. This compares with 4.7% last year and 4.4% the year before.

We continue to achieve stronger pricing in communities with higher occupancy demonstrating the value proposition to the resident. Operating leverage is also visible in the results. Same-store cash NOI margin expanded 190 basis points to 30.7%. And incremental margin flow-through was 53%, which has also been trending positively.

As occupancy rises, a greater share of each incremental revenue dollar converts to NOI. This performance reflects how we have built the portfolio in the right markets with the right assets and the right operators. Furthermore, our communities that are currently 95% occupied delivered 7% RevPOR growth. Our SHOP communities across 48 states, Canada and the U.K. are weighted toward markets with favorable fundamentals including Texas, New York, California, Florida and North Carolina. Projected uncapped net demand in our U.S. markets is roughly 1,200 basis points over the next few years. And residents in those markets have plenty of resources to cover the cost of their expected stay. The communities are large scale, averaging about 115 units with a mix of roughly half independent living and the other half being assisted living and memory care.

We have completed nearly 400 community refresh CapEx projects since 2020, and we work with nearly 50 operators ranging from emerging regional names to institutional platforms who are all locally focused. Occupancy and rate working together remain the primary driver of performance. Within the NIC top 99 markets, our occupancy outperformed the industry by more than double with 130 basis points sequentially. We have consistently beat the market. Since the first quarter of 2023, cumulative outperformance is nearly 600 basis points. We attribute this to our operators' execution at the community level supported by the Ventas OI platform. Our U.S. SHOP portfolio is just 89% occupied, which leaves substantial room to grow. We expect strong performance ahead driven by occupancy gains, rate growth and operating leverage as price and volume work together, we see this as a multiyear growth opportunity.

Now I want to touch upon the Ventas OI data analytics and insights platform, which has proven to be a significant competitive advantage. Our competitive advantage rests on our right market, right asset, right operator framework strengthened by the Ventas OI data analytics and insights platform which is focused both on driving operational performance and investment execution. We choose operating partners for their market-leading care and service, product expertise, leadership close to the community operations and collaborative culture. Our management agreements align our interest and support long-term investment in each community.

In a highly fragmented industry, success requires managing at scale across markets, communities and operators. Ventas OI enables that scale through collaborative oversight combining our team's operating expertise, with proprietary data and best-in-class analytics to inform operational upside, guide refresh capital and refine the portfolio, all in support of delivering outperformance.

We believe this combination of platform, people execution at scale creates a competitive moat that is difficult to replicate and essential in order to successfully grow and operate in the fragmented senior housing industry. It also strengthens relationships and opens growth opportunities for operators who deliver outperformance. We are growing in terms of number of operators and expanding existing relationships with high-performing operators. For instance, we have expanded investments and communities under management with 3/4 of our operators. This includes our top 5 operators who together represent over 60% of our SHOP NOI. I'm proud of our team and grateful to our operating partners for their work every day.

Now turning to investments. We continue to scale our senior housing operating portfolio through market-leading acquisitions. Year-to-date, we've closed $5.2 billion of total investments, focused on senior housing across 37 different transactions. This brings our total external growth since the beginning of 2024 to over $10 billion at cost, which represents more than a 35% expansion of our SHOP footprint.

Our recently closed senior housing investments feature an attractive mix of communities that provide various combinations of in-place cash flow, yields and growth. There are multiple levers to drive outsized growth in these deals. Examples include communities with significant occupancy upside, value-add investments with both occupancy and rate upside, supported by planned near-term CapEx investments, and communities that are local market leaders with demonstrated multiyear track records of high rate growth. These and other factors contribute to generating the projected double-digit to mid-teens 10-year unlevered IRRs, underwritten in each of our deals.

From an initial pricing standpoint, our expected year 1 yields on our senior housing investments are an attractive 6.6% overall. These investments are expected to benefit from the various growth drivers I described contributing to accretive enterprise growth. On average, our senior housing investments year-to-date have a basis of approximately $346,000 per unit, and were acquired at significant discounts to estimated replacement costs.

The U.S. senior housing market is setting new transaction volume records this year, and our pipeline remains very robust. We are one of the largest acquirers of luxury senior housing communities in the U.S. market and are also engaged in numerous off-market discussions with potential sellers and operators on a wide range of attractive opportunities. Our relationship-based approach to sourcing investments, which accounts for over 90% of our investment volume provides meaningful competitive advantages as current and prospective partners are attracted to the Ventas OI platform and our way of doing business. Operators want to work with us.

We're also encouraged that the recent movements in the pricing of debt capital should reinforce our competitive positioning and create further investment opportunities.

To summarize, we continue to offer an attractive value proposition for our residents. We are delivering strong organic growth in SHOP, adding to our footprint through market-leading acquisitions with upside, outperforming industry occupancy benchmarks and continuously elevating the fully deployed Ventas OI platform and the outlook for new investments continues to be as strong as ever. We are confident in our strategy and our team.

Now I'll hand it over to Bob.

Robert Probst

Thank you, Justin, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with our third quarter financial performance, then discuss our balance sheet and conclude with our improved outlook for 2026.

I'm pleased to report another quarter of strong enterprise performance. Normalized FFO was $0.99 per share, representing a 10% increase year-over-year. Driving the growth was total company same-store performance, which increased 11% year-over-year, led by SHOP growth of 16%. I know that the 11% same-store growth rate for the company is a record high and is driven both by the attractive mid-teens growth rate in SHOP and also by SHOP comprising an ever larger proportion of our overall business, consistent with our 123 strategy. Our outpatient medical and research portfolio or OM&R, delivered 2.5% same-store cash NOI growth in the third quarter, led by outpatient medical, which grew 4%. Outpatient medical occupancy increased 10 basis points year-over-year, marking its ninth consecutive quarter of occupancy growth.

Center retention remains strong, supported by tenant satisfaction scores at the 95th percentile. Our research portfolio, which represents a small portion of our NOI, experienced a modest decline in the third quarter as expected. Our triple net portfolio generated over 8% same-store cash NOI growth in the third quarter and was driven by negotiated rent increases.

Turning to the balance sheet. Our net debt to EBITDA of 4.4x is our strongest leverage level in well over a decade and represents nearly a full turn of improvement year-over-year. The strengthening of our credit profile is the result of organic property growth as well as equity funded investments. I would note that this improvement was achieved while delivering attractive normalized FFO per share growth. Year-to-date, we've already closed $5.2 billion of investments focused on senior housing, above the $4.5 billion contemplated in our prior full year guidance. We have funded this investment activity with $4.7 billion of equity capital, together with dispositions and assumed debt. We maintained excellent liquidity of $4.5 billion which gives us flexibility to pursue our robust pipeline of investment opportunities.

Last, I'll turn to our updated earnings outlook. Given our strong year-to-date performance and investment execution, we are once again increasing our earnings outlook for the year. We have raised our net income guidance to $0.64 to $0.67 per share or $0.66 per share at the midpoint. We are increasing our full year normalized FFO per share guidance to now range from $3.87 to $3.90 per share, which represents year-over-year growth of 9% to 10%. The $0.01 improvement in our new guidance midpoint is primarily driven by $0.02 from 2026 senior housing investment activity, partially offset by $0.01 from the impact of higher interest rates and FX. We are reaffirming our same-store cash NOI guidance for each segment and for the total company.

A few comments on our fourth quarter. Our investment pipeline is strong, our guidance only includes closed investments at $5.2 billion at this later stage in the year. I would note that our guidance assumes we refinance maturing debt in the coming months. And finally, we expect the majority of our disposition and loan repayment guidance of $700 million at a 7% yield to close in the fourth quarter. For additional assumptions supporting our guidance, please refer to our Q3 supplemental and earnings presentation posted to our website.

To close, we are very pleased with our performance year-to-date. Our strategy is producing consistent growth, and we remain focused on creating long-term value for our shareholders.

And with that, I'll turn the call back to the operator.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Nick Joseph with Citi.

分析师问答

Nicholas Joseph

You talked about the robust acquisition pipeline. Obviously, we've seen that come through in activity year-to-date as well as the current pipeline. I was hoping you could touch on competition and as interest rates have moved, how that has actually changed kind of your expectation of competition going forward?

J. Hutchens

It's Justin, yes, we've had a really active year, and that's representative of our existing pipeline as well. And our approach has really been to -- first of all, we have very intensive screening of the pipeline. Secondly, we tend to lean in where we have competitive advantages, and those advantages are oftentimes relationship driven. We have a very, very high growth rate with repeat sellers. We have a high growth rate with repeat operators, and that's led to some really attractive acquisition opportunities of luxury senior housing. And so that's how we've been winning.

There's certainly competition in the market. Not everything is the right fit for us. It may be a better home for it. There is -- the impact of interest rates that you mentioned, that could slow down private buyers that may put us in an advantaged position. And then we'll also just see how cap rates settle over time.

Nicholas Joseph

You mentioned the relationship-driven deals. How much do changes in interest rates impact those conversations?

J. Hutchens

Well, the interest in sellers to transact is ongoing. One of the things that happens, and it tends to lag a bit, so we're not really seeing a lot of activity around these types of discussions yet. Is -- there will be discussion around price and what the right cap rate is in the current market, but it's still pretty early.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Farrell Granath with Bank of America.

Farrell Granath

First, I wanted to just circle back on the comment that you made about the 7% RevPOR growth and your 95% occupied units. I was curious how much of the NOI or which segments do you currently stand at that 95% level?

J. Hutchens

It's a lot. We have a large portion of our portfolio in that category. We have NOI growth really across the operating metrics that 95% band outperforms the broader portfolio. We also look at it in another way, which is communities that are 100% occupied. And we talked about in the last quarter that we had 10% of our portfolio that we're at or near 100%. That number now is 15% of the portfolio. And that group of communities has outsized RevPOR growth as well. So we're particularly excited about our hypothesis playing out, which communities -- which is that communities can go all the way, 100% occupied. They can deliver higher pricing opportunity at the high occupancy levels and that we can do it at scale.

And so the movement in the underlying portfolio is really exciting. But I think it's also really important to note that we've built our portfolio to have a long runway of occupancy opportunity. The U.S. occupancy is only 89% occupied. So we have this runway ahead and into the demand that Debbie mentioned that really hasn't even played out yet where we can continue with strong occupancy and rate growth.

Farrell Granath

Great. And I guess on that point also, I think I'm just trying to bridge between especially now, obviously, at that 95%, we're seeing 7% or you're seeing over 7% REVPOR or around 7%, where the -- about 92% same-store occupancy and RevPOR was still around 5%. Can you just bridge between expectations for rate growth, I guess, moving forward as maybe that occupancy continues to grow as you fill up more of your communities?

J. Hutchens

Yes. Yes. So you have all the kind of the levers of rate include the in-house rent increases, you have street rates as well. And then ultimately, what your move-in rents are. And we've seen really good trending in both in-house rent increases and in move-in rents. They've been favorable. That's been supporting the 5% REVPOR growth. I mentioned in my prepared remarks that RevPOR growth over the last 2 years, it was like 4.3% and the 4.7%, and is 5% this year. So we're on this accelerating trend of RevPOR. And that's a direct result of having higher occupied communities and also just managing price opportunity in what is very, very strong underlying affluent markets. So we think that opportunity continues as we continue to publish levers and outperform in a very strong market backdrop.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jim Kammert with Evercore.

James Kammert

Kind of tolling perhaps in his prior comments, Justin. What do you think the portfolio for your portfolio, your best estimate of export versus REVPOR delta being? Because that seems to be a big driver, right? Delta is very important.

J. Hutchens

Well, I mean, that's a good question. So the -- both metrics are a function of occupancy growth. So in this environment, as revenue has been growing, it's been driven by rate and occupancy. RevPOR is around 5%. We've been consistently under 2% on OpEx for side of things. And we're expecting continued occupancy growth as we're only 89% occupied in the U.S. And so that opportunity continues. But what's unique now is that we have more communities in the higher occupied categories that's driving rate. So that's an exciting opportunity. And so I don't know if I have the exact answer to your question in terms of a particular target in mind, but we expect that, that there's opportunity for that spread to widen. And we also expect to see further incremental margin as we move into the upcoming years as well.

James Kammert

I think I phrased it wrong. The opportunity widened, that's what I look for. And then just back to the acquisition environment. I just think it's a skeptic, would the cap rates still continue to compress given there's so much money out there chasing this? And I don't know, just what are you seeing that firms review that you can still obtain these low to mid-teens double-digit IRRs. I'm missing something?

J. Hutchens

Yes, we've had a really, really good run for 3 years straight now of acquiring luxury senior housing that has unlevered IRRs of low double digit to mid-teens. And we've been achieving our underwriting, which is obviously an important component and gives us the confidence to keep going. There -- cap rates will move around a bit. And certainly, with the debt cost of capital going up, that could have some impact to kind of normalized cap rates. There has been a lot of competition. We'll see how that plays out in the upcoming months. But in any event, our pipeline is really active and robust. So we're excited about -- we continue to work on those opportunities and continue the external growth.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jamie Feldman with Wells Fargo.

James Feldman

I guess just still focusing on the expense side. So your margins expanded 190 basis points year-over-year. They slipped 20 basis points sequentially despite occupancy increasing. Just can you talk more about the line item specifically? And maybe more importantly, as we think about next year, it sounds like fundamentals are still very strong. Occupancy should be growing, revenue should be growing, but is there something on the expense side we need to be focused on that might be a bigger drag than we're thinking about? Or just what is your outlook over the next 12 months or so on the expense side?

J. Hutchens

Yes. Thanks for the question. I'm going to start with -- you mentioned the quarters a little bit of slip in margin in the quarter. Our incremental margin was -- has been running kind of low to mid-50s. 2 years ago, that was 43%. So we've had the advantage of occupancy growth and the operating leverage playing out for us. It's a multiyear opportunity. It's never a straight line. The quarter was impacted by -- there's an extra day in the third quarter, and we had utility costs that were a little bit high. So that impacted margin. But the hypothesis remains very much in place. And that is that operating leverage benefits margin and delivers strong incremental margin growth, which all things considered equal, should only improve as we move forward in this market.

Debra Cafaro

Jamie, what was the last thing that you heard Justin saying?

J. Hutchens

I'm just going to summarize what I said before. Are you there?

James Feldman

Yes, I'm here. Yes, I think you had just started to answer, but maybe if you want to start over?

J. Hutchens

All right. We'll see if I do better this time. So first of all, let's talk about incremental margin opportunity in the portfolio, and that's been running kind of low to mid-50s this year. 2 years ago, that was low to mid-40s. So we've had -- the hypothesis is playing out. As occupancy grows, we're benefiting from the operating leverage, we're seeing incremental margin improve. You mentioned the quarter specifically, we had a little bit of slip in margin sequentially. That was driven by an extra day in the third quarter is also higher utility costs.

But one thing I can tell you, even in our 17 quarters in a row of double-digit NOI growth, I don't think it's ever been a perfect straight line. This is a multiyear opportunity. All the levers that we're pulling are working, and we're looking forward to continuing those in revenue and expense and ultimately margin. And I don't have any comments on '27 at this stage.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Austin Wurschmidt with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Austin Wurschmidt

Could you just give us an update on the performance of the Brookdale transition assets and kind of an update on the growth outlook there and when those start to enter the same-store pool?

J. Hutchens

Yes, sure. So we have 9 same-store pool that includes 234 communities. That includes 130 acquisitions. There's 104 communities that are in some sort of repositioning action that will set up future growth types of actions you'll see in that group or transitions to new operators, redevelopments. That -- the whole nonsame-store -- the U.S. portfolio, by the way, in SHOP, including on same-store is 89% occupied. So we have a long runway ahead of growth.

The portfolios in the non-same-store group that excluding the acquisitions, on a like-for-like basis, are growing around 120 basis points. And so that's everything in nonsame-store that's like-for-like quarter-to-quarter. They're growing 120 basis points, which sequentially, which is consistent with the same-store. The portfolio asked about, the former Brookdale transition is on the better side of that. So we're encouraged by the momentum we're seeing in that portfolio.

Austin Wurschmidt

And then just going back to kind of the step function in RevPOR. Has more of that step function occurred from in-place rent increases or from street rates? And can you give us a sense how you expect in-place rent increases for the upcoming year to stack up relative to how they stacked up at the beginning of 2026?

J. Hutchens

Yes. So good question. So the primary driver of our REVPOR has been in-house rent increases. We have seen move-in rents lifting as well. And so we're seeing both in-house and move-in rents working together, particularly recently on the move-in rent side. So we're really encouraged by that trending.

In terms of in-house rent increases, we were around 8% last year. It's a little early, but we would expect next year to be around the same or better.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Dave Rodgers with Raymond James.

David Rodgers

I wanted to shift to investments and acquisition opportunities. I know in your prepared comments, you did describe some of that opportunity. But can you maybe go a little bit deeper in terms of the range of opportunities between occupancy recovery versus value add and some of the CapEx-oriented assets that you could acquire? And what that range looks like? It seems like you're buying assets that on average look just like the portfolio today. But what's that range look like? And I guess how much more volume could you do if you were to expand out into 1 direction or the other?

J. Hutchens

Well, let me -- maybe the best way to frame that up is to describe what we're buying now and what we have been buying, and I can give you a flavor for the range within that. So if we just look at this year. This year, we've had about 70% of our acquisitions have been luxury local market leaders, 20% ultra-luxury premium product and then 10% as characterized as mid-market leaders. And if you're wondering what luxury senior housing means, this is highly amenitized communities that are in the top decile of their local market. They have high private pay, high net worth, high home equity, high barrier markets and a concierge-level service and a resource style setting. And we've been buying large communities with a continuum of care that offer all of these -- all of these amenities and high-quality options for seniors in their markets.

The types of markets we're entering, I'll just throw out a few, Chestnut Hill, Newton in Boston, the Woodlands in spring in North of Houston. Tucson, Scottsdale, Palm Beach, Naples, Denver, Marietta, Georgia, which is Cap County, the wealthiest part of Atlanta. So we're buying communities that are really well positioned. They have -- they're 89% occupied, so they have a runway of occupancy ahead and particularly well positioned for rate growth. That's been opportunity. The range within that, yes, there's been -- we mentioned a portfolio earlier this year called Revel. There's several kind of smaller one-off communities that are similar, they have occupancy runway.

We have some that are in between that we would probably consider a value add just because they're still in the mid-80% occupancy range. And then we have others that are squarely in the 90% and already delivering rate growth. And our pipeline -- let me just say 1 other thing. Let me tell you what we're not buying. What we're not buying is value-oriented senior housing and we're not buying turnkey development opportunities. And we've seen a lot of those. We've seen them in the U.K. primarily. And the problem with Turnkey, it does offer some growth in your portfolio, but you're paying a stabilized value for it. So the returns are much worse. So they still make sense. So we've been focused on a better risk-adjusted return. We've been focused on an opportunity to drive these low double-digit to mid-teen unlevered IRRs.

And to get to your exact question. We want to do more of everything I just said. And we're seeing those opportunities in our pipeline, and we're encouraged by that and particularly encouraged by the SHOP investment thesis playing out through our operating fundamentals in our own portfolio. So it is -- with better demand in the future.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ronald Kamdem with Morgan Stanley.

Ronald Kamdem

Just the first one, I just wanted to talk a little bit more about the duration of same-store NOI growth because there's this interplay between sort of occupancy upside and pricing. And if I look at the U.S. portfolio, where occupancy has been growing faster than 300 basis points every year, and you talked about being 89% occupied, so a lot of runway. I guess so my question is like, how should we expect this to play out? Is it -- you stay at this 300 level for a couple of years, then you start pushing pricing? Is it some sort of a mix? Like what's the experience been? And how does that play out?

J. Hutchens

Well, the high-class problem is we get there faster. So it all depends on how the lease-up progresses over time. We know from recent history that in an environment that had less demand, we've had very strong occupancy and rate growth. We're in a period now where we're at the very beginning of the -- beginning of the peak demand. And we're encouraged by what we're seeing. We're seeing improvement in our move-in rent run rate, we're seeing pricing power in our high occupied communities. We're also seeing strong occupancy growth.

So if you look forward, all things considered equal, you would expect a similar runway ahead with a better demand backdrop. And as certain communities, in particular, the profile that we have, we have an opportunity in our markets as market leaders to offer the value proposition of our residents and to drive pricing over time.

Ronald Kamdem

Helpful. And then my follow-up was just as you think about just sort of the disposition side, any updates on maybe monetizing some of the nonsenior housing assets either faster or so forth?

Debra Cafaro

Ron, this is Debbie. I'll take that. Yes. As Bob said, we have about $700 million of dispos in our guidance this year. We're continuing to opportunistically prune the portfolio and recycle capital into SHOP investments, and we intend to continue doing that.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Mueller with JPMorgan.

Michael Mueller

Is there any distinction to know today between AL and IL either as it relates to acquisition opportunities or NOI growth potential?

J. Hutchens

Yes. I mean we've seen -- in generally, in our existing portfolio, we've seen stronger occupancy growth in our independent living portfolio. Our footprint both existing and in what we're buying tends to be about half independent living. And then the rest is assisted living with a small portion of that serving residents that have member care needs. And there's been strong demand really across the board. We're seeing it in each product type and across all of our markets, obviously, we put a lot of work to make sure we're in the right markets. And so that -- that's -- but our preference though is generally to have a continuum of care. That's our preferred products, offer independent living, assisted living and member care on a campus or large-scale campuses, and that might include all independent living, for instance, and it's all tracking really well.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Georgi Dinkov with Mizuho.

Georgi Dinkov

I had a question on Canada. Do you see any opportunity in the JV assets back. And on U.K., how do you view the opportunity there? And if you can talk about the sequential record decline there?

J. Hutchens

Did you -- I didn't quite hear, did you ask about Canada?

Unknown Executive

Okay.

J. Hutchens

And the U.K.? Okay. I couldn't quite hear you. So first of all, the U.S. has been our main priority, that's where we have most of our footprint SHOP, and that's where our acquisition activity has been directed. We have a really high-performing portfolio in Canada that has high occupancies and delivered consistent growth. We really haven't focused on expanding there. The growth profile in that market isn't as attractive as the U.S. over time. So we've been steering clear of Canada. And then the U.K. is of interest, but it just hasn't been as big of a priority.

Georgi Dinkov

Got it. And is there anything in the life science segment that you would like to call out for the quarter?

Debra Cafaro

It's been -- it's the smallest part of our business, and it's been very consistent.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Julien Blouin with Goldman Sachs.

Julien Blouin

Justin, I think you mentioned that you're planning for similar or better in-house rent increases over the next year versus '26. I guess, why could the range of outcomes include similar in-house rent increases? I would have thought, as we sort of get to these higher levels of occupancy, we might be able to push a little bit more. Is the Ventas OI for the platform, indicating any specific factors sort of limiting your ability to push pricing further?

Debra Cafaro

It's early, Julien. This is Debbie. Sorry to jump in for Justin. But it's early -- and we'll be happy to talk in more specifics about it as we know more.

Julien Blouin

Okay. Great. That makes sense. And then maybe moving back to the incremental margin discussion. It sounds like you're seeing -- I guess I wanted to note, is there a meaningful difference between the incremental margins on the 95%-plus occupancy portfolio versus the rest of the portfolio? Are you seeing signs that in the higher occupancy parts of your portfolio, you're in fact, able to move up towards that 70% incremental margin that I think you've mentioned in the past for nearly full properties?

J. Hutchens

Yes. So we've talked about -- we kind of refer to it as a rule of thumb at one point in time. And I was talking about really the 50% incremental margin we're seeing now is consistent with what we expected. And as you get into the higher 90% occupancy range, you start seeing higher margin opportunity. And we know that it's not a big sample size of communities that are kind of in that occupancy band that had no occupancy change, still growing occupancy within that group, which is consistent with what I said about having more 100% occupied communities now.

But we know that even in that group, we're seeing around a 70% incremental margin. And obviously, in those that are growing occupancy, it's even better. So it's certainly proving out, and that's going to help lift our overall incremental margin over time.

Julien Blouin

Okay. And if I could fit 1 more in, I was wondering how do you think a more challenging home selling environment will impact the demand from move-ins in IL specifically. I get AL probably a little bit more urgent sort of need motivated move-ins, but I was wondering specific to IL?

J. Hutchens

Yes. So we've had a really consistent year in terms of move-in volume and occupancy growth. And you can argue that there is a lot of potential impacts in the macro environment, obviously, in every way, geopolitical, home market, consumer confidence, and we've just been operating straight through that. So we have confidence in the demand and the value proposition that we offer and the resilience that senior housing has and really haven't seen any impacts yet.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Juan Sanabria with BMO Capital Markets.

Juan Sanabria

Just on the expense on SHOP. Just hoping you could talk a little bit about Ventas OI and the initiatives that you have there to maybe lower the export growth, which I think is trending around 2% inclusive of management fees and kind of what the next opportunities that you're working towards may do or help what that export growth?

J. Hutchens

Sure. Yes. So we have -- it's a good opportunity just to remind everybody what Ventas OI is and how we're set up. And so it has -- it's really focus -- the framework of right market, right asset, right operators, the starting point, all the decisions we make around markets assets and operators are supported by our data analytics platform. and the experience that we have here at Ventas and the experience of our operators make good decisions.

The approach we take on the operating side is to -- it guides our CapEx decisions or decision to expand assets. We always have some pruning we're doing in our portfolio and it helps to lead to some of those decisions as well. But the part that I think we believe is most powerful is the support on the operating side. And we're able to take data that most of our operators don't have any visibility into and bring to life for them opportunities on many fronts. And that sales, all the various revenue drivers, sources of leads, including digital leads, benchmarking on an anonymized basis and like products. And that's helped to really bring focus to our communities and help make it easier for operators to prioritize where they can really create value, and expenses are part of that.

So we definitely have a line item review that occurs regularly with our operators. We're always looking for any opportunity to become more efficient. But we are also very focused on the fact that we have a luxury product that we're supporting. And our residents and customers have a certain expectation from us. And so there's no interest whatsoever in shortcutting our service delivery and our care delivery, and that's a balance that we take as we're approaching the expense side of things. But there is certainly an intense focus on it.

Juan Sanabria

And maybe just a bigger picture strategic question. There's a lot of opportunities out there, both on the acquisitions and sales side. It sounds like you're less enthusiastic about Canada to more focused on the U.S. for SHOP. There's seemingly a growing SHOP opportunity in the U.K. And then there's the ability to maybe deemphasize MOBs further by sales or joint ventures. But just curious on what you would have is a key priority for the company or what you're focused on thinking strategically about different moving pieces?

Debra Cafaro

Juan, this is Debbie. We -- since the inception of our 123 strategy, and our actions in acquiring $10 billion of SHOP assets and growing organically, we are 1, 2 and 3 are basically aggressively expanding the percentage of our business at SHOP and managing that optimally as we've talked about outperforming at scale. And that -- the whole company really is focused and driven around those because that's what we believe will deliver the multiyear growth and value creation opportunity.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Rich Anderson with Cantor.

Richard Anderson

I had a little bit of PTSD when your phone lines went out earlier. So a question...

J. Hutchens

If it happens again, it was not on purpose.

Richard Anderson

So this is admittedly splitting hairs, but I'm going to ask it because I think it's having an effect on people's perception of the print this morning. For the third quarter, you did 17% same-store NOI growth out of SHOP; last quarter, it was 18%. For the third quarter, year-over-year increase in margin of 190 basis points. Last quarter, it was 210. So my point is if the third quarter is supposed to be the best quarter. And Justin to your point, things move around, it's nonlinear. I get all that. And I am kind of more of the messenger here on this question, but does this sort of indicate that this is where we're plateauing in terms of organic growth potential, margin expansion, all that sort of stuff, given that this third quarter should be the best of all quarters? Or is that a little bit over a bit simplified?

J. Hutchens

I'm so happy you asked that. So this is -- it was a good quarter. Like I said, in the 17 quarters, we had double-digit NOI growth. I think there's always something we thought could have been better. 17 quarters in a row, we've done this. And I described really how the portfolio is built, the runway ahead, the demand that's coming, the way pricing is playing out and the incremental margin, it's all really as we expected around this journey -- this growth journey that we're on. And there's a long way to go. So we're not even at all bothered about this quarter. What we're focused on is where it's going, and the true trajectory is really positive, and the macro environment is solid and the levers we can pull are proven, and we have a great team and great operators.

Richard Anderson

Okay. So related to that, so hypothetically, let's say you -- your occupancy gain cadence isn't 300 basis points anymore, but it's 200 or 150 or even 0 eventually because you can't go over 100%. So if that means that your rate growth is better in a higher occupied portfolio, can you still maintain that level of bottom line same-store NOI growth? Or does it naturally come down because if the only lever revenue point of view becomes rate over occupancy. So I'm just curious how that math works when you consider incremental margin on new rate increases and all that sort of stuff. If you could just sort of comment on the interplay of all that, that would be great.

Debra Cafaro

I do want to remind you that as we sit here today, we've had 17 quarters under our belt of double-digit NOI growth. We have 89% occupancy in the U.S. We have rate and occupancy working together to drive NOI. And there is this multiyear runway ahead as we're just not even fully into the over-80 population starting to boom and so -- that's what gives us the confidence really about this multiyear growth and value creation opportunity ahead.

I think you're kind of way down the path, even though we do know that higher occupancy levels, as Justin said, RevPOR growth is significantly higher. And that's a lever that we can use as we look forward. But we're in it to win it at this period of time. And as we look forward, we're very optimistic about the setup for us in the competitive advantages and capabilities that the team and the platform bring to continue to try to outperform in senior housing.

J. Hutchens

And I would just say that I'm not in the business of rating questions. But the second question was better because I think that's a more relevant question. It's like where is this going? And I think it's a great question. And when we get there, down the road, we can have some great discussion around how that's all played out.

Debra Cafaro

Yes, and thank you for raising it. It's a good conversation.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Carroll with RBC Capital Markets.

Michael Carroll

I wanted to circle back on the margin flow through. I guess, Justin, where is the break line that pushes that margin from 50% to 70%. I mean I was under the impression that was closer to the low 90% range, not the high 90% range. And if you kind of look at the presentation, it looks like Ventas' flow-through marginally increased from 49% in 2025 to about 52% from the past 12 months, even though you saw occupancy kind of jump from the high 80s to the low 90s. I mean is there anything unique in that number? I mean, are you seeing more occupancy gains in the U.S. portfolio that's kind of in the mid-80s, and that's why that increase in that margin flow-through has been a little bit lower than expected?

J. Hutchens

Yes, there's a couple of things. First of all, there's not a bright line. It really depends on the product type you're talking about, and it's relative to price point, places a big role. There is a distribution in our portfolio that has -- we have a lot of runway in occupancy. So that portion of our portfolio that has the long runway is not delivering a stronger margin. The part that is the highest occupied communities. So that -- I do want to clarify 1 point, though. I think it's playing out exactly as we expected. We said low 90s into the 50s. And so that's happening. We would expect as more communities move up in terms of occupancy and our portfolio grows more in terms of occupancy that we'll see the incremental margin to continue to play out.

The -- within the portfolio we can see it so clearly. The incremental margin flow-through is so clearly happening at various occupancy levels, but we have a wide variety of types of communities and markets and et cetera. So I don't really have a bright line for you.

Michael Carroll

Okay. That's helpful. And then...

Debra Cafaro

That's part of the opportunity ahead.

Michael Carroll

Right. And then just switching to the same-store portfolio. Can you kind of some color on how that could potentially change next quarter? I do you -- do those deals that is coming rolling into same store? Do they have better occupancy comparison numbers? I'm just trying to understand how you can hit that roughly 300 basis point occupancy gain in 2026. I mean is there some benefit in there that we can't see in the current same-store pool?

Robert Probst

Mike, it's Bob. I'm going to take that one. I feel like a potted plant over here. So look, you saw an increase in our same-store pool second to third to 600 assets call it, 3/4 of our NOIs in same-store. Justin earlier talked about the non-same-store pool and the composition. We would expect as we move forward to have more and more assets coming into same-store, including in the fourth. And that's contemplated when we give the guide overall to get to the average for the full year. But you'll see that number continue to increase from a very large proportion already.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Stroyeck with Green Street.

Michael Stroyeck

Maybe 1 more question on the flow-through margin topic. All else equal on the occupancy front, how does that flow through compare on some of your more luxury type assets relative to maybe some lower price point properties? Is there a meaningful difference?

J. Hutchens

Yes. I mean they're -- I'll say that our luxury independent living has very high margin, and it kind of living as really high operating leverage. So you're -- you would see probably your strongest incremental flow-through there. Your -- we have very high price point assisted living as well, but some of it also delivers really high level of care. So there's costs associated with that. But generally, you're going to see better margin with higher RevPOR, and there's certainly a relationship there. And the ultimate driver across the board is operating leverage.

I'll also say that I mentioned earlier that what we're buying, being 70% luxury and 20% ultra premium luxury, there's a meaningful REVPOR uplift that's coming through the acquisitions as well.

Michael Stroyeck

Got it. Okay. And then 1 just on maybe the regulatory environment in the U.S. Have you seen any legislation arise across your markets, either on rent regulation or anything on the labor side? And I guess, how do you think about the long-term risk of the space becoming incrementally more regulated? Is just the sheer amount of seniors utilizing senior housing growth?

Debra Cafaro

Well, one of the things we've always appreciated about senior housing is that it's a consumer-driven product in that seniors and their families are choosing to live there because of the valuable benefits that it provides. And are relatively comparable to what a senior would pay living at home and having some amount of services. So we are obsessively focused about our operators delivering kind of quality care, providing a great value proposition for seniors and their families. And this is the wealthiest generation in history, the baby boomers as they start to enter our markets. And so we -- it's a state-by-state matter. There really hasn't been anything that's gained material traction around really limiting access or revenue opportunities at our communities. But we are very conscious of making sure that what we're delivering is worth the price that people are paying. And that's what's really important in consumer-driven products.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Alex Fagan with Baird.

Unknown Analyst

Just one for me. Can you kind of talk about the opportunity for more expansion projects and how Ventas is positioning itself to participate in the next development cycle?

Debra Cafaro

Good one. Justin?

J. Hutchens

Yes. Yes, absolutely. So we have a lot of opportunity. We are -- we've been evaluating our own portfolio over the past year or so. And we have expansion projects that are planned. And some of those, you're just adding a structure. We have 1 -- I think it's highlighted in our supplemental somewhere, Quincy Place, that's a pretty big project, $30 million or so. We're adding cottages next to a community that is now 100% occupied. And so high demand opportunity to really just expand a winning product in what's already proven to be a strong market. And we're looking -- there's dozens of opportunities across our portfolio where we found an opportunity and that we're making plans to proceed.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Rich Hightower with Barclays.

Richard Hightower

Just one for me as well on the few things tight here. So Justin, I think in your prepared comments, you sort of briefly alluded to the debt market potentially creating opportunities for more transaction volume in '27. I assume that has to do with sort of the 2021 vintage of loans on a lot of these assets. But just given the growth in NOI and SHOP, what's the likelihood that really you'd be competing against the market for refinancing where the equity is still -- is still good, and there's no sort of compelling reason to sell necessarily next year?

Debra Cafaro

I'm going to grab that one. Just -- the point that we want to make is that -- we have -- as you know, we have significant competitive advantages that we won't repeat here in the investment market. A lot of our deals are relationship-oriented, among other things. And of course, we have significant financial strength and flexibility. What we're saying is the move -- the global move in rates and the volatility in the capital markets makes us an even more desirable counterparty in an acquisition. We do have that financial strength. People know we know what we're doing. We can close. They don't have to wait for someone -- a different buyer to get a mortgage or line up their financing.

And so coupled with all of our other existing advantages being a long-term, very knowledgeable counterparty and ACTR in the space. I mean that just adds to the competitive advantages that have given us the momentum to close $5 billion so far this year. And it just makes us incrementally more popular if that were possible. So that's how I would describe what we were getting at.

So operator, do we have any other questioners in the queue. Okay. All right. Well, we appreciate everyone's time this morning. And as always, we appreciate your interest in the company. We're really glad that we were able to deliver a strong quarter, and we very much look forward with the opportunities we have ahead, and to see you in the fall. Thank you.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.