大全新能源 (DQ) 2026年第三季度业绩电话会议：销售额反弹，亏损收窄

核心要点

• 大全新能源（NYSE: DQ）公布2026年第三季度营收为1.942亿美元，高于第二季度的6270万美元，但低于去年同期的2.446亿美元，主要反映出多晶硅销量实现了强劲的环比复苏。
• 销量从第二季度的15,190公吨增加至46,910公吨。平均销售单价环比上涨2%，达到每公斤4.12美元。
• 毛利率从第二季度的负132%改善至负31%。归属于股东的净亏损环比收窄至5290万美元，即每股ADS亏损0.78美元。
• 平均生产成本和现金成本分别创下每公斤5.37美元和4.23美元的历史新低，环比分别下降9.7%和7.4%。
• 管理层对2026年第四季度多晶硅产量的指引为35,000–45,000公吨，全年产量指引为175,000–185,000公吨。预计第四季度出货量将超过产量，从而降低库存。
• 截至本季度末，大全新能源无债务，拥有20.6亿美元的易变现资产。管理层正在考虑股票回购或派发股息，但正在等待行业政策和价格走势的进一步明确。

关键财务数据

截至2026年9月30日，大全新能源拥有5.465亿美元的现金、现金等价物及受限资金；2.673亿美元的短期投资；1.615亿美元的应收银行承兑汇票；5160万美元的持有至到期投资；以及约10亿美元的银行定期存款。

业务与运营表现

大全新能源第三季度生产多晶硅53,469公吨，铭牌产能利用率约为70%。在公司于6月份从观望姿态转向更加面向市场的销售和定价策略后，销量环比增长翻了三倍多，达到46,910公吨。

第三季度4.12美元/公斤的平均销售价格落后于整体现货市场的复苏，原因是出货量中包含了7月下旬之前签署的订单。管理层表示，其第三季度包括折旧和增值税在内的综合成本约为每公斤43元人民币，并将其视为定价基准。

行业“防内卷”举措推动N型多晶硅价格从第二季度的每公斤30.5–33元人民币回升至第三季度末的每公斤约40–43元人民币。然而，管理层估计行业总库存约为70万公吨，分布在多晶硅生产商和下游硅片生产商之间。

大全新能源还在向AI数据中心电力基础设施领域扩展。规划的产品包括集成了变压器、母线设备、母线槽和开关柜的综合电气解决方案。目前项目正在建设中，预计将于2027年上半年竣工。管理层预计销售将于2027年开始，相关项目将在年底前实现经营性现金流转正。

管理层业绩指引

• 2026年第四季度多晶硅产量：35,000–45,000公吨。
• 2026年全年产量：175,000–185,000公吨。
• 第四季度出货量：预计将超过产量，助力去库存。管理层表示，已签订合同的1.4亿美元客户预付款预计将在第四季度交付，同时还可能收到额外订单。
• 第四季度成本：根据近期运营数据，预计将与第三季度水平基本持平。
• 2027年成本：预计与2026年第三季度持平，并可能小幅下降。
• 2027年市场份额：管理层的目标是维持约15%的多晶硅市场份额。
• 多晶硅定价：管理层表示，价格可能会逐步从现金成本恢复至生产成本，再恢复至全成本。在供需再平衡加快和监管执行更趋严格的情况下，预计价格有可能达到每公斤45–50元人民币的区间。
• AIDC投资：目前已承诺的资本支出约为2000万美元。管理层还对该业务2027年10亿元人民币的资本支出给出了初步估计。
• AIDC盈利能力：管理层预计毛利率约为15%–20%，净利润率为高单位数。

风险与关注事项

多晶硅库存偏高和短期需求疲软仍是主要的运营制约因素。管理层表示，价格恢复至全成本可能至少需要几个月时间，并将取决于监管执行的时机和力度。

业内正在讨论将产能利用率降至35%左右，以促使供需重新平衡。如果同行采取协调行动，大全新能源可能会降低近期产能利用率，但管理层强调第四季度的生产仍存在变数。

政策执行是另一个不确定因素。管理层预计更严格的能耗标准将于2027年开始淘汰落后产能，而反对低于成本价销售的规则仍在讨论中。电话会议中提到的潜在监管手段包括罚款，以及在极极端情况下对违规设施进行限电。

管理层预计，2027年中国光伏需求将持平或略有下降，大约在100 GW高段至200 GW之间，而全球需求可能以高单位数增长。总体需求被归纳为基本持平。

分析师问答要点

• 定价策略：管理层希望销售价格向大全新能源约每公斤43元人民币的综合成本靠拢，但考虑到库存过剩和执法不确定性，预计这将是一个渐进的过程。
• 生产纪律：大全新能源支持全行业降低产能利用率，并可能降低自身产量，同时力求保持生产工艺稳定、产品质量及成本效率。
• 存货减值准备：若平均销售价格维持在当前水平且第四季度价格高于第三季度，管理层预计存货减值准备将低于第三季度的3090万美元。
• 资本回报：管理层表示，相对于其资产负债表和长期盈利能力，大全新能源被大幅低估。公司正在积极考虑股票回购和派息，具体决定取决于政策清晰度、行业定价及预期现金流状况。
• AIDC商业化：依托大全集团在电力设备领域的专业知识和客户关系，预计集成式数据中心电气设备将在2027年获得首批订单并实现营收。

业绩电话会议完整记录

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完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Daqo New Energy Third Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jessie Zhao, IR Director. Please go ahead.

Jessie Zhao

Hello, everyone. I'm Jessie Zhao, the Investor Relations Director of Daqo New Energy. Thank you for joining our conference call today. Daqo New Energy just issued its financial results for the third quarter of 2026, which can be found on our website at www.dqsolar.com.

Today, attending conference call, we have our Deputy CEO, Ms. Anita Xu; our CFO, Mr. Ming Yang; and myself. Our Chairman and CEO, Mr. Xiang Xu, is on a business trip now. So Ms. Anita Xu will deliver our management remarks on behalf of Mr. Xiang Xu.

Today's call will begin with an update from Ms. Xu on market conditions and company operations, and then Mr. Yang will discuss the company's financial performance for the quarter. After that, we will open the floor to Q&A from the audience.

Before we begin the formal remarks, I would like to remind you that certain statements on today's call, including expected future operational and financial performance and industry growth are forward-looking statements that are made under the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

These statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statements. Further information regarding these and other risks is included in the reports or documents we have filed with or furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission. These statements only reflect our current and preliminary view as of today and may be subject to change. Our ability to achieve these projections is subject to risks and uncertainties. All information provided in today's call is as of today, and we undertake no duty to update such information, except as required under applicable law.

Also during the call, we will occasionally reference monetary amounts in U.S. dollar terms. Please keep in mind that our functional currency is the Chinese RMB. We offer these translations into U.S. dollars solely for the convenience of the audience.

Now I will turn the call to our Deputy CEO, Ms. Anita Xu. Ms. Xu, please go ahead.

Xiaoyu Xu

Thank you. Hello, everyone. This is Anita, and I'll now deliver our management remarks on behalf of our CEO, Mr. Xu. Supported by continued anti-involution policies, including price

enforcement, the polysilicon sector bottomed out and rebounded in Q3, with polysilicon prices gradually recovering towards cost

levels. However, downstream players continued to hold polysilicon inventories and largely limited their purchases to immediate operational needs, keeping overall sector trading volumes low. Against this backdrop, we delivered a substantial increase in Q3 shipment volumes, driving strong sequential revenue growth and narrowing losses.

Our financial position remained sound, with a robust balance sheet and zero debt throughout the period. As of September 30, 2026, we held cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash of USD 546.5 million, short-term investments of USD 267.3 million, bank notes receivable of USD 161.5 million, held-to-maturity investments of $61.6 million (sic) [ $51.6 million ], and a fixed term bank deposit balance of USD 1.0 billion.

Together, these readily convertible assets totaled USD 2.06 billion, up from $1.92 billion at the end of Q2, providing a strong financial foundation and strategic flexibility to navigate the current market environment.

Operationally, our nameplate capacity utilization rate was approximately 70% during the period. Total production volume at our 2 polysilicon facilities was 53,469 metric tons, exceeding our guidance range of 50,000 metric tons to 55,000 metric tons (sic) [ 40,000 metric tons to 45,000 metric tons ]. Sales volume rose sharply from 15,190 metric tons in Q2 to 46,910 metric tons in Q3, following our shift in June from a wait-and-see stance to a more market-oriented sales and pricing strategy. We believe this increase also reflects greater customer confidence in our product quality and continued preference for our products.

Our average selling price increased by 2% sequentially to USD 4.12 per kilogram, although the increase lagged the broader

market recovery because Q3 shipments fulfilled orders signed before late July.

On the cost side, average total production cost and average cash cost fell by 9.7% and 7.4% sequentially, respectively, reaching new record lows of USD 5.37 per kilogram and USD 4.23 per kilogram, respectively, reflecting our continued improvements in manufacturing efficiency and cost control.

In light of the current market dynamics, we expect total polysilicon production volume in Q4 of 2026 to be approximately 35,000 metric tons to 45,000 metric tons. For the full year of 2026, we expect production volume to be in the range of 175,000 metric tons to 185,000 metric tons.

Anti-involution efforts across the solar PV sector continued during Q3. The State Administration for Market Regulation

released price compliance guidance targeting the solar PV sector on July 31, followed in August by an industry initiative against below-cost sales that we co-signed. Against this backdrop, polysilicon manufacturers halted below-cost sales, and N-type polysilicon prices rebounded from a trough of RMB 30.5 to RMB 33 per kilogram in Q2 to approximately RMB 40 to RMB 43 per kilogram by the end of Q3.

On September 3, the National Development and Reform Commission and the SAMR jointly issued the Notice on Matters Concerning Cost Accounting for Low-Price Disordered Competition in Key Industrial Products, establishing a firmer regulatory basis for polysilicon pricing.

Despite these policy tailwinds, elevated industry inventories and weak near term demand continue to make the operating environment challenging. In response, we are taking a disciplined approach and evaluating a reduction in our near term utilization rate to better align our production with market demand and support the orderly destocking of polysilicon inventories. This approach is consistent with our commitment to

the long-term healthy development of the solar industry.

We are also diversifying beyond our core polysilicon business to reduce our exposure to solar PV cyclicality by targeting the fast growing AI data center power infrastructure market. On June 3, 2026, we announced an investment agreement to establish a

manufacturing base for the R&D, manufacturing, and sale of next-generation energy solutions and related equipment for AIDCs,

including energy storage systems, solid-state transformers, and solid-state circuit breakers. These technologies support the AIDC industry transition to high-voltage direct current architecture, such as the 800-voltage DC standard advanced by NVIDIA and other leading AI infrastructure providers.

The platform is anchored by Daqo Group, an affiliated entity under common beneficial ownership with Daqo New Energy Corp., which brings over 40 years of power equipment manufacturing expertise, established technology, experienced talent, and deep customer relationships to help accelerate our entry into this segment. We view AIDC power infrastructure as a structural growth opportunity that complements our core business and has the potential to broaden our earnings base.

Drawing on our track record of navigating multiple polysilicon cycles, we intend to pursue this expansion in a disciplined manner while preserving our balance sheet strength.

Despite the challenging market environment, the solar PV industry retains compelling long-term growth prospects. Growing vulnerabilities in global energy markets have heightened concerns about national energy security, underscoring the important role that solar PV and other renewable energy sources can play.

As one of the world's lowest-cost producers of high-quality N-type polysilicon, supported by a robust balance sheet and zero debt, we remain optimistic about the sector and are well positioned to capitalize on the anticipated broader market recovery and long-term growth opportunities. We will continue to sharpen our competitive edge by advancing high-efficiency N-type technology and using digital transformation and AI adoption to optimize costs. As the world accelerates its transition to clean energy, we are confident in our ability to play a leading role in that transition.

And now I'll turn the call to our CFO, Mr. Ming Yang, who will discuss the company's financial performance for the quarter. Ming, please go ahead.

Ming Yang

Thank you, Anita, and hello, everyone. This is Ming Yang, CFO of Daqo New Energy. We appreciate you joining our earnings conference call today. I will now go over the company's third quarter 2026 financial performance. Revenues were $194.2 million compared to $62.7 million in the second quarter of 2026 and $244.6 million in the third quarter of 2025. The sequential increase was primarily driven by higher sales volume as the company resumed normal sales activities in June following its adoption of a more market-oriented sales and pricing strategy.

Gross loss was $60.6 million compared to a gross loss of $82.7 million in the second quarter of 2026 and a gross profit of $9.7 million in the third quarter of 2025. Gross margin was negative 31% compared to negative 132% in the second quarter of 2026 and a positive 4% in the third quarter of 2025.

The sequential improvement in gross margin reflected higher selling prices, lower production costs and lower inventory impairment provisions. Inventory impairment provisions totaled $30.9 million in the third quarter of 2026, down from $55.7 million in the second quarter of 2026.

Selling, general and administrative expenses were $16.3 million compared to $15.8 million in the second quarter of 2026 and $32 million in the third quarter of 2025. The sequential increase was primarily attributable to higher sales volume. The year-over-year decrease was primarily because the company recognized $18.6 million in noncash share-based compensation related to share incentive plan in the third quarter of 2025, while it did not have the same item in the same period of 2026.

R&D expenses were $2.7 million compared to $1.6 million in the second quarter of 2026 and $0.6 million in the third quarter of 2025. The increase in R&D expenses was primarily due to R&D of next-generation energy solutions for AIDC. R&D expenses can vary from period-to-period and reflect R&D activities that take place during the quarter.

As a result of the foregoing, loss from operations was $78.6 million, compared to $98.1 million in the second quarter of 2026 and $20.3 million in the third quarter of 2025. Operating margin was negative 40.5%, compared to negative 156% in the second quarter of 2026 and negative 8% in the third quarter of 2025. And as a result of the foregoing, net loss attributable to Daqo New Energy Corp. shareholders was $52.9 million, compared to $81.2 million in the same quarter of 2026 and $14.9 million in the third quarter of 2025. Loss per basic ADS was $0.78, compared to $1.20 in the second quarter of 2026 and $0.22 in the third quarter of 2025.

Adjusted net loss attributable to Daqo New Energy shareholders, excluding noncash share-based compensation costs was $52.9 million, compared to adjusted net loss of $81.2 million in the second quarter of 2026 and adjusted net profit of $3.7 million in the third quarter of 2025. Adjusted base loss per basic ADS was $0.78, compared to adjusted loss per basic ADS of $1.20 in the second quarter of 2026 and adjusted earnings per basic ADS of $0.05 in the third quarter of 2025.

EBITDA was negative $9.2 million, compared to negative $29 million in the second quarter of 2026 and $45.8 million in the third quarter of 2025. EBITDA margin was negative 4.7%, compared to negative 46.8% in the same quarter of 2026, and 18.7% in the third quarter of 2025.

Now on the company's financial condition. As of September 30, 2026, the company had $546.5 million in cash and cash equivalents, compared to $555 million as of June 30, 2026. Short-term investments were $267 million, compared to $250 million as of June 30, 2026.

Note receivable balance representing bank notes maturing within 6 months was $161.5 million, compared to $71.7 million as of June 30, 2026. Held-to-maturity investments were $51.6 million, compared to $51 million as of June 30, 2026. Fixed term deposits due within 1 year was $965 million, compared to $928.9 million as of June 30, 2026.

Now on the company's cash flows. For the 9 months ended September 30, 2026, net cash used in operating activities was $215 million, compared to $50 million in the same period of 2025. And for the 9 months ended September 30, 2026, net cash used in investing activities was $235 million, compared to $449 million in the same period of 2025. Net cash used in investing activities in 2026 was primarily attributable to the purchase of short-term investments, fixed term assets, fixed deposits, net of redemption as of both purchase of PP&E.

Purchase of property, plant and equipment and land use rights totaled $93.5 million for the first 9 months of the year. And for the 9 months ended September 30, 2026, net cash used in financing activities was $7.8 million, compared to $32,000 in the same period of 2025. The net cash used in financing activities in 2026 was primarily related to $7.8 million in share repurchases made by the company's subsidiary, Xinjiang Daqo from its minority shareholders on the A-share.

And that concludes our prepared remarks. We will now take questions from the audience. Operator, please begin.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question today comes from Alan Hon with JPMorgan.

分析师问答

W. L. Hon

My first question is related to our sales strategy during the third quarter. Because we've read that the spot price has increased since August. And during the first 2 quarters, we have been like not willing to sell at a very low cost to kind of like reserve cashes and hoping the market to recover. But I mean, the majority of our sales is transacted at lower than the average spot price in third quarter. You did explain a little bit on -- about like securing some sales in -- probably in July time frame, signing contracts. Just want to get a little bit more clarity on how should we look out for the fourth quarter sales ASP? Is it going to be closer to the current spot market prices? Or is it still going through some of the contracts signed in July, which is transacted like at USD 4 per kilogram?

Xiaoyu Xu

Thank you, Alan, for your question. So I think before we shed some light on our sales strategy and the ASPs going forward into the fourth quarter, I would like to give a little bit more background on the recent development of the anti-involution. Because recently, there have been conversations happening on a more frequent basis. And we see a strengthened tone on the pricing law, which players are not allowed to sell below-cost. And this previously was really under the debate of whether that means cash cost, production cost or full cost, and we think that's leaning more towards the full cost level.

And to give a reference for us, our Q3, the all-in cost, including depreciation and the VAT is around RMB 43 per kilogram. So I would say that would serve as a benchmark for our strategy. However, that being recognized, because recently, the inventory -- the industry level inventory is really accumulating to a relatively high level to around 700,000 metric tons overall with half at the manufacturers of the polysilicon level and half at the wafer downstream customer level.

So I would say we recognize the market dynamics. And the goal is to really have our sales at the benchmark level, but I think that's going to undergo a more gradual process, like how in Q2, we have ramped up to above RMB 30, RMB 31 and then now to around RMB 35 average.

W. L. Hon

Got it. So in that sense, I think this is probably a situation across the industry, which would also mean, overall, the industry is now still trying to figure out how to fully follow the guideline, I would imagine.

Xiaoyu Xu

Yes, because the conversations are still ongoing. And so it's not sure from our perspective on the exact level of enforcement. What we can say from our company's perspective is that we are 100% engage and promote the healthy and sustainable long-term development of the industry, which you can see from our overall sales volume in the first 2 quarters as we took a wait-and-see stance for clearer signal from the regulators and from the policy perspective, and were reluctant to be the first ones to sell at below-cost prices.

So we're still actively participating in these anti-involution initiatives. But yes, given the industry dynamics, we also have to assess our own strategies in this situation.

W. L. Hon

Got it. I guess my second question would be how do we think about our strategy in ramping up or increasing the production in third quarter maybe because I mean, it sounds like the situation is not very clear and maybe maintaining a lower production volume would be a safer bet. I just want to get your thoughts on like why we are, like, increasing the production in first quarter?

Ming Yang

Okay. I think the actual production for the fourth quarter is actually fairly fluid. So there is 2 approach that we're taking. I think if you look at what we have done is right now, we're producing, say, roughly 15,000 metric tons per month. But the current manufacturing, I would say, the process and the actual production, for example, I think in terms of quality and cost is actually fairly optimal. I think you can see in the third quarter, we actually achieved fairly significant cost reduction while quality improved.

So to the extent that we can maintain the current stable process, we would like to do that. But we also recognize that there is this industry initiative or proposal of reducing the entire industry's utilization further to maybe, say, 35% or so across the industry. So we're also observing and looking at how our industry peers is working on that. So to the extent that if the industry peers can come to the actual action of jointly reducing utilization, certainly, we would welcome that and we would follow as well. So I think that's why we have a fairly wide range with regard to our Q4 production level.

W. L. Hon

Got it. Got it. I guess my last question would be like about the policy outlook. I understand like we are now in kind of like a potential turning point where regulation intervention is like happening, but its taking time to sort out, I mean, among players. So I would like to hear your thoughts on like how -- when do you think we will get to a point where industry at large will be selling at the designated level, like the all-in cost level?

Xiaoyu Xu

I think that will be a more gradual process because like Ming just mentioned, the players recently have proposed lowering the industry level overall rate to around 35% to balance the overall supply and demand in the year ahead. And that's based on our estimated demand outlook for next year and including the high level of inventory of around 700,000 metric tons currently. And we think maintaining at this rate will allow prices to return to a reasonable level.

But of course, I think it would be under the process of first recovering to above cash cost and then to production cost, and finally to full cost. So we do think that's going to take at least a couple of months going forward. And also that depends on the timing of when the regulation really evolves and rolls out.

W. L. Hon

Got it. Got it. Okay. Thank you for sharing with us like the current industry backdrop and your strategy.

Operator

The next question comes from Phil Shen with ROTH Capital Partners.

Philip Shen

First one, Anita, you talked about you're unsure about what the enforcement levels are of the anti-involution policies. I was wondering if you could talk through what you -- we could expect to see as it relates to enforcement? Could the government become more aggressive? And is that a key catalyst to support pricing? And then if they do pursue enforcement, what could they actually do that could be meaningful in impact?

Xiaoyu Xu

So thank you, Phil. I think based on our engagement with our peer players and with CPIA and from attending these meetings, we do sense a firmer tone in combating the vicious competition in the industry. And I think that's via 2 fronts that we see. And first is the energy consumption, which would phase out the outdated capacity starting from next year. That's a quite clear point.

And the other one is the pricing laws that we just mentioned. But I think that's still under debate because every company has their own strategies, right? And they have their own production, sales and inventory levels. So that's still under the debate. And we do think that we'll see something coming very soon on that front.

Philip Shen

Anita, I'd like to explore that a little bit more. So there's -- everybody has different levels of where they want to produce and sell and all these things. But ultimately, some of the -- there's got to be some punitive actions that change behavior. So what do you think those actions could be?

Xiaoyu Xu

I think the most straightforward punitive action upfront would be via fines for the companies that do not abide by these principles and guidelines. For instance, selling at below the cost level then they need to have punitive action so that would serve as a red flag and signal for other companies to follow.

And in terms of the energy consumption, I think it will be easier to measure from that front because you can clearly see how much energy they use when producing polysilicon. So I think the utmost extreme case will be when they just cut off the power for these facilities.

Philip Shen

Got it. Okay. Moving on to pricing. You gave some color for Q4 pricing. Could you talk about how you expect pricing to trend in '27? I know a lot of it might depend on some of these enforcement actions and so forth. But it would be helpful to have some kind of baseline for '27 pricing.

Xiaoyu Xu

I think in the coming quarters, the goal to really excel above the all-in cost. Like I mentioned, for us, the benchmark will be based on Q3 all-in cost that will be at least RMB 43 per kilogram. And based on the execution and how strong the policies roll out, we might expect prices to ramp up, suppose that the supply and demand rebalancing happens faster, and we see stricter policies coming out to recover to, let's say, RMB 45 to RMB 50 per kilogram range.

Philip Shen

Okay. Great. That's helpful. Last one for me on your AI data center activities and investments. You're diversifying. You're spending more money in R&D. Can you talk to us how much -- in '27, how much money could you invest in these sectors, storage, SST, solid-state circuit breakers. When could we see revenues? Could we see any revenues in '27? Or is this really 2028 or beyond? And then which one would be first of these 3 end markets or products that you're developing?

Xiaoyu Xu

Yes. So in terms of the AIDCs, we're quite pleased with the progress right now. So construction is already underway. And we've actually broken ground, and the pile foundation work has already kicked off. And we expect construction to be completed in the first half of next year. And we expect to begin generating sales next year. And by the end of next year, we expect projects to be at operating cash flow positive. And that's primarily driven and thanks to our accumulated experiences and client relationship with our affiliated company, the Daqo Group, which has over 40 years of experience in electrical equipment. And we will see the fastest growth in AIDC related. So the more plug-and-play modular solutions for the AIDCs, we will see revenue and orders in that front first.

Philip Shen

Okay. There's a lot you said there. You could see revenue in '27. What are you selling in '27? Are you selling storage? Or are you selling solid-state transformers? And how much money are you planning to invest to bring that capacity online? And what exactly are you -- sorry if I missed this, but what's the nameplates of whatever capacity you're building?

Xiaoyu Xu

Yes. So for next year, we would have orders in the AIDC related, the electrical equipment. So what we're selling is actually the integrated solutions for the AIDC, which include the transformers, the bus gear, the bus ducts and the switchgear and the bus ducts, and that's what we see growing fastest next year. And the overall CapEx, we expect next year will be RMB 1 billion. That's a rough estimate at this point.

Philip Shen

Okay. Got it. So RMB 1 billion. And then what kind of revenue could we see in '27? At what margin?

Xiaoyu Xu

I think gross margin will be around, like, 15% to 20% and the net profit margin will be, like, high single digits.

Operator

The next question comes from Alan Lau with Jefferies.

Alan Lau

So I would like to follow up on the enforcement question because I recall back in July, there was meeting between SAMR and the industry players. Back then, I think the message was enforcement this time will be in place, given that there was 2 years already. So I wonder like because if we look at the ASP of most players or the market prices, yes, there's a lot of inventory in the industry, but what's stopping the authority from enforcing or like is it back to more market driven after a couple of meetings?

Xiaoyu Xu

I think when we sat down to discuss in more depth, what was the thing that somewhat delayed the process was that once we, let's say, set an overall production volume and sales volume for the industry, and that could cause potential monopoly in the industry, and that would not lead to a long-term healthy development of the polysilicon as well as the entire value chain. I think that was the primary concern. So we had to reconsider how to best set the guidelines for the companies and for the players in the industry.

Alan Lau

Understood. So how do you see the growth rate of demand next year, yes, globally or in China?

Xiaoyu Xu

I think overall in China, the demand compared to this year would be relatively flat or even at, I would say, like a Y-o-Y decrease, like a small amount of Y-o-Y decrease overall. But globally, overall, maybe around a high single digit growth across the globe. But previously we have installed a significant amount of solar PV itself. So yes, because we have -- because previously we have installed a lot of the solar PV. So I think in the next year or so some it will be somewhat slower in terms of the pace.

Alan Lau

Understood. So this year, I think demand declined quite meaningfully year-over-year last year. So I think in terms of numbers, is it in the mid or high 100-ish gigawatt and next year, maybe you see another like 10% decline year-over-year in China?

Xiaoyu Xu

Yes, I think next year will still be around like the high 100 gigawatts to like 200 gigawatts.

Alan Lau

I see. So next year on this basis, probably slight decline, while overseas market...

Xiaoyu Xu

Yes, slight decline.

Alan Lau

...a bit of slight growth. So net-net, pretty flattish.

Xiaoyu Xu

Yes, that's correct.

Alan Lau

I see. So I wonder if you see any signs of exit from the market because, like, one of the leading companies in the industry are buying out another one. But wonder if you see any of other similar like voluntary acquisition or exit from the market, et cetera?

Xiaoyu Xu

I think this will be more market oriented because starting from January 1 of next year, first of all, the outdated capacity, which have a higher energy consumption level would gradually phase out of the market. And from a more fair perspective, I would say the players currently have a comfortable stage with their current nameplate capacity. And based on what we are discussing right now, I think all the players will have to lower their utilization rate to balance out the demand. So yes, I would say if a player is to acquire another company, if the valuation is at a reasonably low level, that would be an option or if that poses like a strategic, or a different strategy for the company, say, overseas expansion or so, I guess that would also be a consideration when we think about potential acquisitions.

Alan Lau

By overseas expansion, what do you mean, like, polysilicon overseas expansion or -- because first of all, the U.S. market seems to be quite restrictive on Chinese players' products. Secondly, it seems Chinese government is also imposing some restrictions on export of equipment as well.

Xiaoyu Xu

Yes. I'm probably talking about players that might have completed like a certification or like a traceability requirement, right, because some players might have applied for a specific traceability standard to have their products abroad. And that's what I'm talking about in terms of potential overseas expansion, not specifically like setting a overseas in U.S. or so.

Alan Lau

Understood. So last question is about -- given that the company is still holding on a significant amount of cash and stock is obviously a bit be depressed, at least. So when if -- or when the company would think it's appropriate to enhance the shareholders' return?

Xiaoyu Xu

First of all, we recognize the current state and we do think -- we strongly believe that returning value to our shareholders remains a priority for our management team and our Board. And at the current share price, we are significantly undervalued relative to our balance sheet and also our long-term, the earnings power. So a share repurchase is definitely something that we're actively considering.

But deciding to launch a program, we want to have a more clear view of how the anti-involution policy is rolled out and enforced, and also how our peers will respond to the current situation. And we think that these factors all directly affect industry pricing and our cash generation ability. And that means, to us, that really means the right size and form of any potential capital return. So we totally understand that investors would want us -- or would like us to act now given our strong cash position. But I think waiting a short period of policy clarity would allow us to size any return correctly and choose the most effective form, either in the form of a share repurchase or via a dividend.

So this is really a question of timing for our management team. So we are definitely keeping a close eye on the dynamics, and we'll discuss the options with the Board again and in the next coming months and even in Q4 again. So we'll communicate the decision to launch. And once we have that decision finalized, we will communicate promptly with our shareholders.

Operator

The next question comes from Air Ma with Citibank.

Yueyi Ma

So my first question is about the sales volume. So what is the expected sales volume in the first quarter and also the outlook for 2027?

Xiaoyu Xu

I think our sales volume in Q4 would be relatively similar to or close to our production levels. So we'll strengthen our efforts and our sales. And obviously, our top priority is really to reduce our inventory.

Yueyi Ma

Okay. Is there any outlook for 2027?

Xiaoyu Xu

In terms of sales?

Yueyi Ma

Yes.

Xiaoyu Xu

I think the goal for us is to maintain our market share. So that will be around 15% of the market for 2027.

Yueyi Ma

So my second question is about the production cost. So we have seen that the cash production costs have been declining quarter-by-quarter. Can we also expect a similar trend in the fourth quarter and also in next year? So if yes, what will be the percentage scale?

Ming Yang

Thank you for your question. So we did see fairly significant cost reduction across our facilities in Q3, and this is primarily via a reduction in energy usage, particularly related to electricity as well as silicon powder, and also in steam, and the via a technical upgrade. And so -- also benefiting from some benefits from silicon metal of price decline. So I would say, based on current trend, we would expect Q4 costs to be similar to Q3 costs based on the most recent data we have. And then we would expect 2027 to be also similar to Q3 cost, maybe with a slight reduction.

Yueyi Ma

And my last question is about the inventory provision. So I saw that the inventory provision in the third quarter is slightly less compared to the second quarter. And I would ask if at the current price, will there still be inventory provision in the fourth quarter? Or what is the condition to make the provision?

Ming Yang

Okay. I would say if the market remains at the current ASP, we would expect Q4 inventory provision to be less than Q3.

Yueyi Ma

So it means that the market price should be higher than RMB 43, which is your all-in cost, then there will be -- there will no longer be any inventory provision. Is that correct?

Ming Yang

Or let's say, we would expect Q4 ASP to be higher than Q3. So we would expect, I would say, some reduction in inventory provision from that perspective.

Operator

The next question comes from Gordon Johnson with GLJ Research.

Gordon Johnson

So you built roughly 70,000 metric tons of inventory this year. With Q4 production guided to 35,000 to 45,000 metric tons, what sales volume do you expect in Q4? And how much of the $140 million in customer advances will be delivered against this quarter? And I have a follow-up.

Ming Yang

Okay. Currently, we expect Q4 shipments to be higher than the Q4 production. So with a reduction in inventory as a result. And I would say, because we receive payment before we deliver products. So certainly, I think, for example, maybe -- I mean, the $140 million is all contracted for and is expected to be delivered in Q4, while we would continue to receive additional orders as well.

Gordon Johnson

Very helpful. And now that you're free cash flow positive this quarter, congrats on that, by the way. What are the priorities for the $2.6 billion? How much will you commit to the AI data center platform with Daqo Group? And how is that related party build being reviewed and priced? And how much cash sits at the Daqo parent level versus Xinjiang Daqo?

Ming Yang

Okay. I would say for AIDC, our committed CapEx currently is around $20 million or so in that range and primarily is to build up the facility-related manufacturing and equipment for the AIDC business. And certainly, on the parent level right now, we have over $300 million. And then on the -- this is offshore. And then on the domestic entity, Xinjiang Daqo, there's roughly RMB 10 billion of cash balance there.

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over for any closing remarks.

Jessie Zhao

Thank you, everyone, again for participating in today's conference call. Should you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to contact us. Thank you, and have an awesome day. Goodbye.

Operator

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.