康宁 (GLW) 2026年第三季度业绩电话会：光学销售额大增44%，第四季度业绩指引上调

核心要点

• 康宁公布2026年第三季度核心销售额为51亿美元，同比增长19%，同时核心每股收益（EPS）增长36%至0.91美元。两项指标均超出公司指引。
• 毛利率扩大150个基点至40.5%，营业利润率提升310个基点至22.7%，投入资本回报率（ROIC）提升330个基点至16.7%。
• 光通信业务领跑增长。该部门销售额增长44%至24亿美元，净利润增长80%至5.32亿美元。企业销售额增长84%，其中生成式人工智能（Gen AI）产品销售额增长超过100%。
• 在投资超过5亿美元用于产能建设后，康宁第三季度创造了6.61亿美元的自由现金流。前九个月自由现金流达到23亿美元，资本支出为13亿美元。
• 管理层预计第四季度销售额为52亿美元至53亿美元，同比增长约19%；每股收益为0.96美元至1.00美元，同比增长约36%。
• 公司继续以到2028年底实现300亿美元的年化销售额年率、到2030年底实现400亿美元为目标，且每股收益的增速预计将显著快于销售额增速。

关键财务数据

康宁主要使用非GAAP核心指标讨论合并业绩。公司表示，第三季度GAAP与核心每股收益的主要差异反映了套期保值敞口调整和离散税务项目。

业务与运营业绩

光通信

光通信仍是主要的增长引擎。销售额增长44%至24亿美元，净利润增长80%至5.32亿美元，再次创下该部门单季盈利新高。

企业销售额增长84%。随着客户采用康宁的新产品以及公司扩大产能，生成式人工智能（Gen AI）产品销售额增长超过100%，显著快于GPU出货量的增长。企业业务年化销售额年率已从 Springboard 计划启动时的14亿美元扩大至60亿美元。

在数据中心互连（DCI）的支撑下，运营商销售额增长4%。康宁与 Zayo、威瑞森（Verizon）和 AT&T 签署了光纤及连接产品的长期协议。管理层表示，DCI 的市场机遇在时间进度和规模上都应会超越此前设定的“十年末达到10亿美元”的目标，不过管理层并未提供新的替代目标。

管理层继续预计全光纵向扩展（scale-up）应用将在2028年开始加速。康宁表示，当前的横向扩展（scale-out）架构每个 GPU 约使用16根光纤，而全光纵向扩展可能将该数字提升至每个 GPU 160根光纤。

玻璃创新

玻璃创新业务销售额下降3%至15亿美元，净利润下降10%至3.28亿美元。康宁表示，其“More Corning”战略帮助其表现优于受内存价格影响的终端市场。电视出货量下降4%，而笔记本电脑和手持设备出货量下降约20%。

为应对日元贬值以及关键材料和能源成本上升，公司正在提高显示玻璃基板的价格。提价自第四季度开始，但主要旨在影响2027年及以后时期。

康宁还表示，到2026年底，全球销售的所有 iPhone（包括 iPhone Duo）和 Apple Watch 产品的盖板玻璃都将在其位于肯塔基州哈罗兹堡的工厂生产。

汽车业务

汽车业务销售额增长4%。北美8级重型卡车市场的复苏抵消了轻型车市场3%的下滑。该部门净利润下降1%至6700万美元。

太阳能业务

太阳能业务销售额增长37%至4.36亿美元，但该部门录得700万美元净亏损。康宁位于美国的硅片和组件工厂的产能爬坡继续慢于预期。

管理层预计到2027年，生产率、产量和盈利能力将逐步改善。公司继续以太阳能业务收入超过30亿美元、盈利能力高于公司平均水平为目标。公司表示，美国近期根据第232条采取的贸易行动改善了本土制造太阳能产品的定价环境和需求。

生命科学与新兴增长业务

销售额增长1%，其中生命科学业务表现优于其终端市场。由于对新兴增长项目的投资，净利润同比减少1300万美元。

管理层指引

对于2026年第四季度，康宁预计：

按照52.5亿美元的销售指引中点计算，管理层推算出年化销售额年率为210亿美元。预计光通信业务将贡献大部分同比增长，而随着新增产能上线，太阳能业务也将做出贡献。

在更新后的 Springboard 计划下，康宁旨在到2028年底实现300亿美元的年化销售额年率，到2030年底达到400亿美元。管理层计划在2027年至2030年间实现19%的销售额复合年增长率（CAGR），并预计每股收益的增速将大幅快于销售额增速。

康宁计划在2026年进行约20亿美元的资本支出，主要用于支持光通信业务的增长。管理层预计，尽管持续进行产能投资，但在整个规划周期内自由现金流仍将增长。

风险与关注点

• 光通信供应依然紧张，收入增长部分取决于新产能的投产上线。康宁正优先保障长期客户以及协助为其扩产提供资金的客户。
• 太阳能业务的生产爬坡速度慢于计划。该部门仍拖累公司利润率，其改善取决于生产率的提升。
• 玻璃创新业务面临来自设备终端市场疲软、日元贬值以及关键材料和能源通货膨胀的压力。
• 显示玻璃的价格上涨预计对第四季度的影响有限，主要收益预计将在2027年及以后体现。
• 客户押金减轻了公司扩产的预付现金负担，但随着客户按承诺采购量提货，康宁会返还这些押金。
• 管理层表示，来自中国的光纤目前尚未构成显著的竞争压力，不过康宁继续为此类可能性做好准备。

分析师问答亮点

管理层表示，光通信业务的净利润率已从15%左右提升至20%出头的水平，并可能进一步改善。然而，康宁尚未设定新的利润率目标，因为公司仍在扩大光通信产能，并建设目前亏损的太阳能业务。

谈及生成式人工智能（Gen AI）需求的持续性，管理层表示客户继续以更快的节奏索求更多产品。康宁正通过多年期协议和客户资金支持来锁定产能承诺，以降低投资风险。

管理层表示，除维持性支出外，大部分与增长相关的资本投资均由长期客户协议提供资金。客户资金通常在相关资本支出之前收悉，有助于在投资和交付周期内平滑自由现金流。

公司费用包括高于正常水平的可变薪酬。管理层预计该项费用在第四季度将趋于平稳而非加速增长，并认为营业费用是杠杆效益的来源，因为其增速应慢于销售额增速。

康宁将其20亿美元的按市价发售股票计划描述为资产负债表日常维护。公司表示目前无意使用该计划。

业绩电话会议完整文字实录

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管理层陈述

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

I would like now to turn the conference over to Chris Keenan, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Christopher Keenan

Thank you, and good morning. Welcome to Corning's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. With me today are Wendell Weeks, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President; and Ed Schleshinger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

I'd like to remind you that today's remarks contain forward-looking statements that fall within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially. These factors are detailed in the company's financial reports.

You should also note that we will be discussing our consolidated results using core performance measures, unless we specifically indicate our comments relate to GAAP data. Our core performance measures are non-GAAP measures used by management to analyze the business. For the third quarter, the difference between GAAP and core EPS principally reflects adjustments for hedged exposures along with discrete tax items. A reconciliation of core results to the comparable GAAP value can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website at corning.com. You may also access core results on our website with downloadable financials in the Interactive Analyst Center.

Supporting slides are being shown live on our webcast, and we encourage you to follow along. They are also available on our website for downloading.

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Wendell.

Wendell Weeks

Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. Today, we announced outstanding third quarter results. Year-over-year, we grew sales 19% to $5.1 billion and grew EPS significantly faster at 36% to $0.91, both exceeding guidance. We expanded gross margin 150 basis points to 40.5%, we increased operating margin 310 basis points to 22.7%, and we improved ROIC 330 basis points to 16.7%, all while delivering $661 million of free cash flow after investing over $0.5 billion in capacity to support future growth. Overall, a great quarter.

And we expect our strong performance to continue. For the fourth quarter, we expect to grow sales about 19% year-over-year to a range of $5.2 billion to $5.3 billion, and to grow EPS by about 36% year-over-year to a range of $0.96 to $1.

So let's put our very strong results and outlook in the context of our Springboard journey. In May of this year, we upgraded and extended our Springboard plan to grow our annualized sales run rate to $20 billion by the end of 2026, $30 billion by the end of 2028 and $40 billion by the end of 2030. We shared that we were entering a new phase of accelerating growth. We plan for our compound annual growth rate to increase to 19% beginning in 2027 through 2030, after already growing at a robust 15% CAGR for the first 3 years of Springboard. That is a 400 basis point acceleration.

In the third quarter, we already began to grow 19% year-over-year to $5.1 billion. That is an annualized run rate of $20.3 billion. And looking ahead to quarter 4, if you take the midpoint of our guidance, we'll grow 19% again to $5.25 billion. That is an annualized run rate of $21 billion. So just 1 quarter after upgrading our plan, we are exceeding our Springboard target of a $20 billion run rate by the end of 2026. And we are already demonstrating the accelerated growth rate anticipated for the next phase of our plan.

Interestingly, today's earnings call actually marks the 3-year anniversary of when we introduced Springboard to all of you. So let's briefly look back on our journey and review what we've accomplished together. In the first 3 years of Springboard, from our starting point through quarter 4 2026, we will grow sales 60%, and grow EPS much faster at over 150%. And along the way, we are significantly enhancing our financial profile, nearly doubling ROIC and more than tripling full year free cash flow. Altogether, we've established a strong launch point for the next phase of Springboard.

Looking ahead, we plan to double sales from $20 billion to $40 billion, grow EPS significantly faster than sales, expand ROIC, all while delivering robust free cash flow even as we continue to invest to capture growth. So if you liked the first phase of Springboard, you're going to love the next one.

Importantly, we already have many of the critical customer relationships and long-term agreements in place that underpin our growth outlook. Now each relationship is unique, but they do have 2 common characteristics. The first is a focus on technology and co-innovation. We share our technology and development plans with each other. This allows us to help our customers achieve their vision.

Secondly, we seek to appropriately share risks and rewards as we deliver that vision. Our customers are counting on us to provide the right products at the right time. So we take on the nontrivial responsibility of meeting challenging performance standards and in-production ramps. They take on the responsibility for how much of our products that they need because, of course, they are best positioned to make that determination.

We use multiple mechanisms to achieve the appropriate balance of mutual obligations depending on the unique circumstances of our customers and their requirements of us. One example of a tool that we have used successfully in our Glass and Solar businesses and have now applied in Optical Communications is to have our customers provide upfront cash to fund our capacity. We then simply return the cash to our customers as they purchase the committed volume. This helps to both derisk our capacity investments and give our customers supply chain assurance.

You can see this dynamic already at work in our financials. In the first phase of Springboard, we more than tripled our full year free cash flow while investing strongly in new capacity. Looking ahead to the new Springboard phase of accelerating growth, we are seeking to continue to increase free cash flow and improve our financial profile, even as we invest to double the size of the company. Ed will share more color on this in a few minutes.

We feel blessed to have these types of foundational relationships with our customers. They extend from our long-standing model of invent, make and serve. This fundamental approach has governed us for 175 years and will continue to guide us well into the future. We invest in innovation to invent products that enable transformative technologies. We create and build manufacturing platforms to deliver higher quality and lower cost than anyone else in the world, all to serve our customers over decades-long relationships.

When we get this right, our customers become enduring partners, giving us the opportunity to solve their challenges and help create their own extraordinary products that delight their customers in turn. So after 175 years, we are once again in a moment where we have the opportunity to apply our long-standing, principled approach to value creation: for our customers, for our people, for our communities and, importantly, for our shareholders. We are delighted to have you with us on that journey.

Ed?

Edward Schlesinger

Thank you, Wendell. Good morning, everyone. We delivered an outstanding third quarter, and our results demonstrate the acceleration of growth outlined in our 20-30-40 Springboard Plan. Year-over-year in Q3, sales grew 19% to $5.1 billion, and EPS increased 36% to $0.91, both above our guided ranges. We expanded gross margin 150 basis points to 40.5%. Operating margin grew 310 basis points to 22.7%. ROIC grew 330 basis points to 16.7%. And we delivered strong free cash flow of $661 million even as we continue to invest to capture robust demand.

Now moving to our segments. Our results were led by Optical Communications. Sales were $2.4 billion, up 44% year-over-year. Net income was $532 million, up 80% year-over-year, with the segment again delivering record profitability.

Enterprise grew sales 84% year-over-year, with Gen AI product sales growing more than 100% year-over-year, significantly outpacing GPU unit growth. This was driven by the rapid and broader adoption of our innovations and enabled by our steady capacity additions. At the launch of Springboard, our Enterprise sales run rate was $1.4 billion. Since that time, we've quadrupled Enterprise sales to a $6 billion run rate. And keep in mind, our growth is driven by scale out. As Optical penetrates the scale-up portion of the network, our revenue opportunity will increase dramatically.

In Carrier, sales grew 4% year-over-year, driven by growth in data center interconnect. During the quarter, we announced long-term customer agreements with Zayo, Verizon and AT&T to deliver fiber and connectivity solutions in support of their network expansions across broadband and data center interconnect. Collectively, these agreements serve as an excellent proof point for our long-term opportunity in Carrier, and give us confidence that our opportunity in DCI is bigger than the $1 billion target we've previously communicated.

Moving to Glass Innovations. The successful execution of our More Corning strategy helped us outperform our end markets, which were significantly impacted by memory prices. Looking at the market, in the third quarter, TV units were down 4%, while notebooks and handhelds were down about 20%. Our third quarter sales were $1.5 billion, down $54 million or 3% year-over-year. Net income was $328 million, down 10% year-over-year.

Looking ahead, we expect to continue executing our More Corning strategy. For example, we continue advancing our nearly 20-year partnership with Apple. By the end of 2026, all of the cover glass for iPhone, including iPhone Duo and Apple Watch sold worldwide, will be produced at our Harrodsburg, Kentucky facility. Additionally, we recently announced a price adjustment for our display glass substrates that will begin to take effect in the fourth quarter to address a weaker yen environment and rising costs such as critical materials and energy.

In Automotive, our sales were up 4% year-over-year. Recovery in North American Class 8 truck market more than offset the impact from the light-duty vehicle market, which was down 3%. Net income of $67 million was down 1% year-over-year. Looking ahead, we remain focused on our More Corning content strategy.

In Solar, Q3 sales were $436 million, up $117 million or 37% year-over-year. The segment reported a net loss of $7 million. We continue to ramp production at our wafer and module facilities, albeit at a slower pace than anticipated. As our productivity improves, so will our output and profitability. Demand remains strong, and the market preference for U.S.-made solar products continues to strengthen. Recent U.S. trade action under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 improves the overall pricing environment and demand for Corning's Solar products. Overall, we are making solid progress building a more than $3 billion revenue stream in Solar with profitability above the corporate average.

Sales in Life Sciences and Emerging Growth Businesses were up 1% year-over-year, as our Life Sciences business outperformed the end market. Net income was down $13 million year-over-year due to investments in Emerging Growth programs.

Shifting to our outlook. In the fourth quarter, we expect sales to grow approximately 19% year-over-year to a range of $5.2 billion to $5.3 billion, and EPS to grow approximately 36% year-over-year to a range of $0.96 to $1. As we move to our next phase of Springboard, we have a really compelling opportunity in front of us. We plan to double the size of the company from $20 billion to $40 billion by the end of 2030.

We grow organically by inventing products that enable transformative technologies, and we create and build manufacturing platforms to deliver higher quality and lower costs than anyone else in the world. Historically, this meant we invest capital upfront before the revenue and free cash flow shows up. And then we have high returns and generate strong free cash flow down the road.

We have been steadily improving that model by appropriately sharing the risk and responsibility of investments with our customers. Many such long-term customer agreements underpin our growth. We use multiple mechanisms in our agreements to achieve the appropriate balance of mutual obligations, depending upon the unique circumstances of our customers and their requirements of us.

One tool we use is for our customers to provide the cash upfront. And then we return that cash as they purchase the committed volume. We have successfully used this tool in our Glass and Solar businesses and are now applying it in Optical Communications. This both provides our customers with supply chain certainty while securing our revenue, returns and free cash flow.

You can see this dynamic already at work in our financials. There is a line in our operating cash flow labeled Customer Deposits. For the first 9 months of the year, that amount was $639 million. This line includes upfront cash we received from our customers during the period net of the cash returned to customers from previous deposits as they purchase their committed volumes.

At a macro level, this mechanism smooths the cash impact of our capacity additions, helping fund the upfront investment and then returning customer deposits from the operating cash flow generated by our profitable delivery of the committed volume. You can already see this in effect in our cash flows. We generated $2.3 billion of free cash flow over the first 9 months of this year, while we steadily invested $1.3 billion in CapEx to add capacity supporting the growth outlined in Springboard. As we've previously shared in 2026, we're planning to invest approximately $2 billion in CapEx, primarily to support the growth in Optical Communications.

We plan to keep this flywheel going as we enter our new accelerating growth phase of Springboard. We seek to continue to increase free cash flow and further improve our financial profile even as we invest to double the size of the company.

Given our increasing free cash flow, this takes us to capital allocation. Our philosophy is to prioritize investing in organic growth opportunities that drive significant returns. Our shareholders have validated that this creates the most value for them, and this remains a priority. We will continue to maintain a strong and efficient balance sheet. And we're in great shape. We have one of the longest debt tenors in the S&P 500. Our current average debt maturity is more than 20 years, and we have no significant debt maturity coming due in any given year.

We also expect to continue our strong track record of returning excess cash to shareholders. We already have a strong dividend, and therefore, as we go forward, our primary vehicle for returning cash to shareholders will be share buybacks.

Now before we move to Q&A, let me reiterate my key takeaways. We've had great success to date with Springboard. We delivered significant growth and dramatically enhanced our financial profile. We also built a strong foundation with our capabilities, manufacturing platforms and our deep customer relationships. From this foundation, our growth will accelerate.

Our third quarter results and fourth quarter outlook already demonstrate the momentum we expect in the next phase of Springboard. We expect to double our sales from $20 billion to $40 billion by the end of 2030, to grow EPS much faster than sales, and to improve our financial profile even further. We expect our free cash flow to grow through the planning cycle even as we invest.

In total, we're focused on creating significant value for our shareholders, and we look forward to updating you on our journey.

And with that, I will turn things back over to Chris for Q&A.

Christopher Keenan

Thank you, Ed. Operator, we are ready for the first question. .

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Josh Spector with UBS.

分析师问答

Joshua Spector

I wanted to ask on just the Optical margin cadence. I don't know, Ed or Wendell, when you guys feel comfortable to kind of talk about margin on a forward view at all. Clearly, your investments are picking up. Your incremental pretax margins are still in kind of a 40% or higher range. Is this something you have confidence yet to be able to talk about and give a target at some point in the near future?

Edward Schlesinger

So thanks for the question, Josh. So I would agree. I think we have done a really nice job as we've been growing Optical to improve our net income margin. I'll use that as sort of the vector to think about. We were in the mid-teens. We're now in the low 20s. I certainly think there is an opportunity for us to continue to improve from there. And obviously, that has driven the company's operating margin significantly. We've grown that into the low 20s as well.

And again, I think we feel good about our environment. The thing I would say is we're going to be adding capacity in Optical to grow. As we've shared, we're also still building a Solar business, and that is actually still negatively impacting or dragging our margins a little bit. So I don't know that we're quite yet ready to put out a new target, but I think you should think of us as continuing to be where we're at and making progress from there as we grow.

Joshua Spector

That's helpful. If I could just follow up just in terms of corporate costs, that seems to be a thing people are nitpicking on this morning a bit. You're about $50 million lower year-on-year. That was kind of a big part of kind of why 3Q was in line. Is there something going on there between the allocations between corporate and the segments? And what's the assumption in the fourth quarter, please?

Edward Schlesinger

Yes, there's nothing going on. I mean we mentioned on our second quarter call, and it continues here in our third quarter, that our variable compensation expense -- so we pay for performance and we have a number of tools that we use to do that. And the compensation expense is a little above what I would consider to be normalized levels. We saw that in the second quarter. We've seen that here in the third quarter. It probably levels off. I don't necessarily think it accelerates in the fourth quarter. And then it resets as we go into the subsequent year.

So I view operating expenses, which, in general, is what sits in that corporate expenses bucket, as being a leverage point for us as we grow. I think we will continue to be able to leverage our operating expenses. They will grow slower than our sales.

Operator

And our next question will come from Asiya Merchant with Citi.

Asiya Merchant

Great. Just a couple of quick questions here. Wendell, you talked about at CNBC earlier this morning about Gen AI related demand. There's just been a lot of concerns in the market about the durability of this demand, whether it's financing or any other kind of various constraints that are out there. You're standing firm with your Springboard, there was a large growth factor associated with optical. Just if you can talk about how you're thinking about these various constraints and how you factor that into your Springboard?

Wendell Weeks

Thanks for the question, Asiya. What she's referring to, for those of you who didn't have a chance to see CNBC this morning, is one of the things that I talked about is sort of an important -- a document has been filed this last week, which is Anthropic's S-1. And you see a number of interesting things in that, but through my -- 3 main takeaways are the tremendous growth is there. Second is the implied profitability of their inference tokens, which is that primary driver for what it is their customers use as inference, and that looks very profitable. And their comment that their number one constraint is now and will continue to be compute, and we provide the networking for that compute.

What we see in our demand, Asiya, is continued press from our customers to do more and more. And as a result, what you see us doing when we're doing these multiyear agreements is asking those customers. Our customers are primarily the major hyperscalers given our long-standing relationships, help us fund and secure that capacity so that we can be assured of that demand, and we reduce any amount of risk to our shareholders. So I don't think I have gotten one call yet that has been for anything else other than more of our new products, faster and broader.

Does that answer your question or did you have something deeper behind that, Asiya?

Asiya Merchant

No, no, that's great. And just on the scale up, Ed, I know you talked about the scale-up opportunity being significantly greater. You guys talked about it at your Investor Day as well. Just any update, there's been just a lot of chatter around all the various events that have happened around Optical and scale up. Just any more color on how you're thinking about photonics as a MAP through 2030 and any other color for next year as well on the Photonics MAP?

Wendell Weeks

That's a great question, Asiya. So for those of you who don't follow this closely, Asiya is asking about scale up is [indiscernible] our demand is primarily driven by what's called scale out, connecting those GPUs out down the road to every other GPU that sits in the cluster. That's about 16 fibers per GPU in today's architectures.

100% of the current scale up architectures are in copper. If that was 100% optical scale up, you increase to 160 fibers per GPU. So that's a 10-fold increase. And so the question then becomes how fast is that going to happen, of what percent of the GPUs will be connected by optical scale up? And given its strong leverage on our financials because, obviously, a 10x increase in demand for GPU would have a significant impact on our financials given our position, this is what drives the quite appropriate fascination with timing.

So what we said in the May IR event was we expected Optical scale up to begin to accelerate in 2028. We continue to believe that strongly. We're on the inside of that ecosystem. I know people hear different things about different particular components, and will this be delayed or will that be delayed. This is just classic technology development. We continue to be quite convicted that this accelerates in 2028.

Operator

The next question comes from Meta Marshal with Morgan Stanley.

Meta Marshall

Great. Maybe Wendell, maybe expanding on that, if you could just speak to kind of the battle that you guys are having in terms of being able to fulfill Carrier versus Enterprise and maybe just how, if there is a battle there to figure out, how to make those allocations?

And then maybe second for Ed. Just I believe in previous quarters, you would kind of contextualize what the Solar overhang was. Just if you were willing to lay that out?

Wendell Weeks

So we've been -- we started so early that -- it's why you've been able to see our revenues, they seem to increase so smoothly because we started on the capacity early. You are correct that, especially our new and high-density products, are supplying us with the speed and breadth of their adoption, and that our traditional carrier customers now really want this product in their DCI architectures because they can fit 2 to 4 more times fiber is the same conduit. And at the same time, Gen AI is why we developed the dense products as we try to increase the amount of fibers per GPU, that also has a strong demand for those products.

And so what's really causing the tension is people want that newest product, and we're still ramping that up to be the product across all of our platforms. The way we sort of sort that out is centered around the long-standing nature of the relationships, those ones that are going on for decades, we tend to prioritize those customers. And then as well, when we have to add capacity, we have a natural [ sort ] towards quality because we ask them to contribute to those capacity adds. This will tend to shift our allocation, shift the percent of our revenue that goes to those folks who have the resources to help us fund that capacity. Does that make sense to you, Meta?

Meta Marshall

Yes, that does.

Edward Schlesinger

So I'll take the second question, Meta. The first thing I want to point out is I think the most important thing on Solar, the most important takeaway, I think, for folks is the Section 232 ruling, which took place in the third quarter. That actually has a very nice impact on the pricing environment and also indexes to demand for U.S.-made solar products. So that's us. I think that is a really important thing. It actually continues to strengthen our view in the ability to build a more than $3 billion business with nice profitability. So I think that's important.

As we said on the call, we continue to make slow, steady progress on our ability to make and sell the products that we make. So we make polysilicon, wafers and [ modules ] in the U.S. And we had sort of, I'll call it, bottomed out in the second quarter and we're around the same level here in the third quarter. So the drag, if you will, or the EPS or margin impact in the third quarter is similar to what we saw in the second quarter, and we would expect it to slowly improve from this level as we go through 2027. And then depending on our ability to inflect up on our productivity, that will really drive the profitability aspect of the business.

Operator

And the next question is going to come from Joseph Cardoso with JPMorgan.

Marc Vitenzon

This is Marc Vitenzon on for Joseph Cardoso. I guess the first question kind of piggybacks on the supply question with regards to accelerating top line growth from 17% in 2Q to 19% in 3Q and then high teens exiting the year and going into next year. How much of that is driven by demand versus new capacity coming online? How should we just think about the broader demand-supply dynamics there? And then I have a follow-up.

Wendell Weeks

Things are tight, and so as you see our revenue increasing, certainly, is bringing on our new capacity is part and parcel of that. Hence, we have the capacity plans in place that are already well underway to support that accelerating growth that you see in the next phase of Springboard as we move from the 15% CAGR during the first 3 years to 19% from '27 to -- throughout the end of our Springboard planning period. And so it will be both.

The other thing that also helps us on the revenue is basically realized price. Overall, price is going up. But more importantly, as we develop these new products, they create a lot of value for our customers. And we tend to split that value creation with our customers that allows us to get more revenue per element of capacity. Did that answer your question, Marc?

Marc Vitenzon

Yes, that's super helpful. And then the follow-up would be on Carrier where, historically, you framed growth around mid-single digits. This quarter, you signed Verizon and AT&T on top of Lumen and Zayo. How are you thinking about Carrier growth into 2027? Would the acceleration primarily be driven by DCI and long haul? Or is fiber-to-the-home also a substantial contributor?

Edward Schlesinger

Yes, Marc. For sure, data center interconnect is the bigger opportunity in the Carrier space. I would expect that to drive nice growth as we go into next year and then beyond that. As we shared, we had originally said we thought that DCI could be a $1 billion business by the end of the decade. We'll clearly exceed both the timing and the magnitude of that target. We haven't yet set a new target because I think there's a lot of activity in that space. So we'll take some time and sort of lay that out and come back and talk about it later.

I would also say that fiber-to-the-home will continue to be a growth driver. I think you will see deployments certainly by the large carriers in that space. We're very well positioned for that as well.

Operator

And the next question will come from Wamsi Mohan with Bank of America.

Wamsi Mohan

I had 2 as well. Maybe first on the customer deposits. Can you help us think through how much of the $2 billion of 2026 CapEx was funded by customers? And how does such share change into 2027 and beyond? And if you sort of look at the free cash flow dynamic, if I understand it right, you're going to repay deposits as customers take volume. So how much does it sort of create a headwind for free cash flows as you look into '27 and '28. And I have a follow-up.

Edward Schlesinger

Thanks, Wamsi. And also congrats on the marathon. I saw some photos of you at the Wineglass Marathon. So on the customer funding, what I would say is not all of our capital is for optical or towards our growth, some of it is maintenance of business. So if I sort of exclude that part, the maintenance of business part, the majority of our capital is funded by the long-term agreements that we've signed. And that will kind of, over the long term, that will kind of even out. It may not match exactly in any given quarter. We generally would get cash before we're spending the capital.

The cash flow question, which I tried to explain today a little bit, but maybe I'll elaborate a little bit more, I think, is really the important one. So for us, what we are seeking to do is as we grow and invest, to continue to increase our free cash flow through the planning cycle. You saw that -- you've been seeing that in 2026, clearly year-to-date, we're in a great position. And even as we return that cash, we expect to be able to continue to grow our free cash flow nicely because we will be generating a nice return, a nice level of profit and cash on the volume we're selling. And then, therefore, we're returning a portion of that via that incremental operating cash flow.

So it sort of smooths out our cash flow, reduces the volatility over time, and it allows us to grow free cash flow as we continue to grow sales. So that's how you should think about it.

Wamsi Mohan

Okay. I appreciate the comment. On the display price increases, how large is the increase and how much shows up in Q4? Does it fully offset sort of the weaker yen? Because you did have a little step-down in display profitability in the quarter. Are we back to normal by Q4? Or does it take a little longer for it to flow through?

Edward Schlesinger

Yes. So first of all, on the timing, we're implementing those increases now. They should begin to take place in the fourth quarter, but I don't think you should expect that to be a significant impact in the quarter. They're really geared around 2027 and beyond. As you know, the yen has been weak and there are other input costs where we're seeing some level of inflation.

We shared back in May that we had sort of derisked our long-term plan and taken the yen to 150. We continue to hedge, and we hope to do better than that in our hedging, but that's sort of why we're making these price increases. We're not disclosing the specific amount of the increase, but you can think of it as similar to what we've done the last few times we've done it.

Operator

And our next question comes from George Notter with Wolfe Research.

George Notter

Wendell, I wanted to ask about your perspective on the Chinese fiber in your business. I assume you're going to talk to tariffs and shipping costs, keeping Chinese fiber out of the markets that you play in. Certainly, there's geopolitical concerns, certainly, there's your LTAs and co-innovation with customers. But at the same time, I mean the market is just so asymmetric in terms of supply and demand. And I guess what I'm asking is, are you seeing fiber from China? And what's your perspective on that potential impact on your business?

Wendell Weeks

I think it's actually a great question, George. In terms of the percent of the market that we see exposure to Chinese fiber, that has been dropping actually. Now [ I see with a lot of different things ], not the least of which is more and more of the fiber is being consumed in a pretty complicated connectivity of product sets, where the degree of integration is high. And once it becomes integrated, its shipping costs become a lot higher, right? And the tariff cost becomes a lot higher. So it's not quite as easy as shipping reels of fiber around because you have so much of the value that's sitting in connectivity.

Now that being said, we always recompete in China against the Chinese players. And what we always count on for the long term is we're the highest quality, lowest cost, biggest producer in the world. And we continue to expand those advantages. So for now, we're not seeing it as a significant competitive pressure, but we're always preparing for the moment when that could happen.

Operator

And our next question is going to come from Matt Niknam with Truist.

Matthew Niknam

Congrats on the quarter. Kind of on the theme just asked, 2 quick ones, if I could. First, on the fourth quarter outlook, maybe, Ed, if you can help us unpack the outlook for the $5.2 billion to $5.3 billion for sales just across the different segments?

And then maybe a follow-on for Ed as well. You filed for a $2 billion ATM equity program a few months ago. You've got $2.5 billion of cash on the balance sheet. The business is obviously generating additional incremental cash flow. So if you can speak to the rationale for setting up the ATM and what would make you effectively use it relative to debt or other sort of customer prepayments.

Edward Schlesinger

Yes. And Matt, I just want to make sure I caught your first question. Specifically, are you asking about the content of the sales growth, like where it's coming from in the fourth quarter?

Matthew Niknam

That's right, across the different segments. Any relative changes relative to 3Q?

Edward Schlesinger

Got you. Yes, I think for sure, we expect to have a really robust quarter in Optical Communications. That will drive the lion's share of our growth year-over-year. As we shared, the AI data center component of our Enterprise business grew 100%. I think we really are seeing very strong demand, and that's going to do -- drive a lot of the growth.

I think Solar will continue to also drive growth as we bring capacity on, and then that should start to impact our earnings as we improve our productivity. Again, think of that is slow and steady, but it will certainly be a growth driver. So probably pretty similar dynamics to what you saw in the third quarter.

And on the ATM, I think of it as housekeeping for us. We have a shelf registration for debt. This is very much like a shelf registration for equity. So we have no intention of doing anything at this time, but it just -- it allows us to use this as a tool if we ever need to do that in the future.

As you know, what's important to us is having a very strong balance sheet. We invest over long cycles in innovation, and we are growing a lot now, and obviously, we're adding capacity. But there are a lot of technology opportunities for us, and we want to make sure that no matter what happens in the external environment, we can continue to invest through any kind of cycle. So we always do things that help improve our balance sheet, and this is just a housekeeping thing for us to have on the shelf.

Operator

And the next question is going to come from Martin Yang with Oppenheimer.

Martin Yang

A question on Solar's profitability in the medium term, perhaps your operating -- corporate operating margin keeps improving. You have the goal of Solar getting to corporate average towards the end of '27. I just want to make sure that goal is still intact. And you're referring to this continued improvement trajectory of corporate average for Solar is meeting that moving target, or is it Solar's margin profile getting to the previous corporate average comparing to the most recent ones?

Edward Schlesinger

Yes. I think in general, currently, Solar is below our corporate operating margins, so it's creating a drag. As we improve productivity, that profitability will improve, and I think it will be slow and steady. And we feel great about the business overall, and the Section 232 ruling is also very favorable to the pricing environment, which is a nice impact in general to margins.

I don't know -- I think you should just think about it as continuing to help our overall corporate average as it improves. If we continue to move that number up, certainly possible that Solar gets there. But I think of, if we get above 20% in Solar, it will significantly improve our overall corporate average.

Wendell Weeks

It's a positive sort of question in that, will our corporate average improve faster than we can -- the ultimate level of profitability we can deliver? And so that would be a really good problem to have, both of them racing for increased profitability.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question will come from John Roberts with Mizuho.

John Ezekiel Roberts

We usually think of Starlink as a competitive threat. But with their new move towards terrestrial, do they become a frenemy? And maybe with their data centers, they become more than a frenemy? Could you maybe give us some thoughts on that.

Wendell Weeks

Yes. So we're fans of LEO, of lower orbit. A, because we have some content on those. But B, you are right on the right area, which is now we'll be able to connect people, especially in more sparsely created areas or sparsely populated areas, as well as any sort of spots in the network that you can easily reach with a shared architecture. That's going to increase the bandwidth as they go more and more into data centers, that becomes a big driver for our product as well. And as you quite rightly point out, the data has to land in a network, and that data, as it lands, is certainly fiber optics.

So in general, we are very positive on LEO, and we think you're looking at it right.

I keep out the frenemy part. I think they're an important part of the mosaic, and we like customers.

John Ezekiel Roberts

And then, Ed, the yen hedge went from 98% down to 94%. Is there a plan to lower that over time by about 4% per quarter?

Edward Schlesinger

No. No plans, John. We do our best to hedge the majority of our exposure in any given quarter. That moves around a little bit depending on what happens in the quarter, but the goal is to be as hedged up, if you will, as we can be practically.

Operator

Thank you. I am showing no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Chris for closing remarks.

Christopher Keenan

Thank you for joining us. And before we close, I want to let everyone know that we will be attending the UBS Global Technology and AI Conference on December 1. Additionally, we'll be scheduling management visits to investor offices in select cities.

Finally, a web replay of today's call will be available on our site starting later this morning. Once again, thank you all for joining us. Operator, that concludes our call. Please disconnect all lines.

Operator

Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.