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POOLCORP (POOL) 2026年第三季度业绩电话会:销售额增长4%,重申每股收益指引

TradingKey2026年10月22日 20:09
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POOLCORP第三季度净销售额同比增长4%至15亿美元,调整后摊薄每股收益为3.40美元,经营活动现金流显著增长47%至4.20亿美元。管理层重申2026财年调整后摊薄每股收益指引在10.87至11.17美元之间,预计全年销售额增长3%至4%。尽管面临进货运费成本上升与客户组合变动的利润率压力,公司通过深化定价、供应链纪律及维护需求韧性,持续优化运营效率。

该摘要由AI生成

尽管运费成本和客户组合压低了利润率,POOLCORP仍公布第三季度销售额增长,调整后摊薄每股收益保持稳定。管理层重申了其2026财年的盈利指引,并预计全年销售额增长3%至4%。

核心要点

  • 第三季度净销售额同比增长4%至15亿美元。定价因素贡献了3个百分点,销量因素贡献了1个百分点。
  • 毛利率下降60个基点至29.0%,主要是由于进货运费成本上升、客户组合变动以及与上年同期季中提价基数较高的影响。
  • 营业利润下降3%至1.72亿美元,而调整后摊薄每股收益从3.39美元微升至3.40美元。
  • 今年迄今的经营活动现金流增长47%至4.20亿美元,相当于净利润的115%。尽管销售额增长4%,库存仍同比下降3%。
  • 管理层重申2026财年调整后摊薄每股收益指引为10.87美元至11.17美元,GAAP摊薄每股收益指引为10.66美元至10.96美元。
  • POOLCORP预计2027年的宏观经济环境将与2026年大致相似,并将优先推进销售执行、定价与供应链纪律、运营改善以及程式化并购。

核心财务业绩

指标2026财年第三季度业绩变动与点评
净销售额15亿美元同比增长4%
定价贡献3%占本季度销售额增长的大部分
销量贡献1%受益于维护需求、稳定的翻新活动以及新建房屋表现好于许可趋势的支持
毛利润增加700万美元销售额上升抵消了部分利润率压力
毛利率29.0%同比下降60个基点
营业费用增加1300万美元增长5%,主要由于激励性薪酬、员工保险和外部服务费增加
营业利润1.72亿美元同比下降3%
营业利润率11.4%受毛利率下降和费用上升施压
调整后摊薄每股收益3.40美元高于上年同期的3.39美元
利息费用1180万美元同比减少超20万美元
库存12亿美元同比减少3900万美元(即3%);环比减少1.94亿美元
今年迄今经营活动现金流4.20亿美元相比2.86亿美元增长47%;相当于净利润的115%
总债务12亿美元平均利率为4.2%

业务与运营表现

维护需求保持韧性。化学品销售额增长4%,主要得益于销量的增加;设备销售额增长5%,得益于产品定价以及泵和过滤器等产品良好的替换需求。尽管非必需支出表现谨慎,建筑材料业务仍录得连续第五个季度的增长。

商业客户销售额增长7%。零售客户销售额从第二季度的下降1%改善为增长3%,而Pinch A Penny加盟店向终端用户的销售额也增长了3%。

POOL360占本季度销售额的17%多一点,高于上年同期。公司继续加大在POOL360、水质检测、电子商务和第三方集成方面的投资。

佛罗里达州、亚利桑那州和德克萨斯州的销售额均实现了低至中单位数的增长。加利福尼亚州的表现与上一季度类似,而加利福尼亚州的Horizon业务恢复增长。欧洲按当地货币计算的销售额增长了8%。

大型客户的增长速度快于更广泛的客户群体,增加了毛利润总额,但拉低了毛利率百分比。管理层表示,被归类为大型客户的业务约占整体业务的中单位数百分比。公司还致力于提高中小客户的留存率和服务水平。

POOLCORP在本季度开设了一个佛罗里达州营业网点,并将两个网点合并至现有的销售中心。管理层表示,网络布局决策将继续兼顾当地市场密度、客户接近度与成本效率。

管理层指引

管理层略微上调了预期全年销售额增长区间至3%至4%,其中包括定价带来的3%贡献。10月份销售额增长约2%,符合公司第四季度的展望,管理层表示这并不反映负面的销量趋势。

调整后摊薄每股收益指引保持在10.87美元至11.17美元。以中点计算,这将代表较上年增长近3%。GAAP摊薄每股收益指引保持在10.66美元至10.96美元,其中包含第二季度录得的0.21美元一次性CEO过渡费用。

公司预计全年调整后营业费用的增速将保持在销售额增速以下。第四季度的费用增速应低于第三季度录得的5%,尽管战略投资和与销售挂钩的激励薪酬仍将持续。

管理层预计第四季度毛利率将较29.0%环比改善,但仍低于上年同期。运费支出占销售额的比例预计将与第三季度大致持平。

POOLCORP预计全年经营活动现金流将超过净利润。公司还预计全年利息费用约为5000万美元,调整后有效税率接近25%。

预计全年新建泳池建造量将略低于上年。展望2027财年,管理层指出,公司将减少一个销售日,这将对第四季度产生影响。

风险与关注焦点

较高的进货运费成本仍是主要的利润率压力来源。POOLCORP在8月份针对运费密集型的建筑材料产品实施了针对性提价,但预计大多数追加的定价举措将在2027销售季开始时实施。

客户组合是利润率的另一个限制因素,因为大型客户的增长速度快于其他客户群体。管理层预计,效率的提升和全国性大客户的执行力随着时间的推移将对盈利能力提供支撑。

房屋换手率和非必需支出仍持谨慎态度,且较大规模的项目继续被推迟。灌溉与景观业务仍受到疲软的房产市场牵累,而第四季度的销售在季节性上更容易受到非必需需求的影响。

公司的利率互换预计将减少2026财年利息费用约900万美元,但将于2027年2月到期。到期后,管理层根据当前利率估计债务利率约为5.2%,预计较低的库存持有成本将抵消部分不利因素。

分析师问答环节亮点

管理层预计在公布第四季度业绩时,将为其销售、定价、运营和并购优先事项提供一个更详细的定量框架。公司还计划在2027上半年举办的投资者日上对其长期增长模型展开更广泛的讨论。

在利润率方面,管理层表示,即使2027年的宏观经济状况与2026年相似,内部举措也能支撑利润率的改善。优先事项包括针对性定价、自有品牌扩张、更好地利用网络产能以及提升销售执行力。

公司形容其并购储备项目比几个月前更加健康,尽管尚未宣布任何交易。POOLCORP的股票回购授权额度还剩4.68亿美元,并表示回购活动通常会在下半年这一现金流生成季节性较强的时期增加。

管理层表示,化学品价格通缩已趋于缓和,而销量增长依然强劲。公司未将目前的化学品业务表现归因于竞争对手的破产。

在技术方面,POOLCORP正在评估内部及面向客户的系统,包括在何种情况下合作伙伴关系可能优于内部自主开发能力。管理层预计第三方集成将提升效率、支撑销售并提高POOL360的采用率。

业绩电话会议完整文字记录


完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Pool Corporation Third Quarter 2026 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Also note, today's event is being recorded.

At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Kristin Byars, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Kristin Byars

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our third Quarter 2026 earnings conference call. During today's call, our discussion, comments and responses to questions may include forward-looking statements, including management's outlook for 2026 in future periods. Actual results may differ materially from those discussed today. Information regarding the factors and variables that could cause actual results to differ materially from projected results are discussed in our 10-K. In addition, we have provided a presentation on our Investor Relations website that summarizes key points from our press release and today's call.

We may make references to non-GAAP financial measures in our discussions today. A description and reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures are included in our press release or on our Investor Relations website.

I will now turn the call over to John Watwood, our President and CEO.

John Watwood

Thank you, Kristin, and good morning, everyone. I want to start by recognizing the people who support our industry. Earlier this month, I had the chance to spend time with about 1,500 employees, suppliers and industry partners at our international sales conference, and it was one of the most energizing experiences of my first year at POOLCORP, standing in a room with that many people who care about this industry, our customers and each other reinforce what makes this company different, scale built on local relationships. It was a powerful reminder that it truly runs deep here, and I want to thank our employees for everything they do for our customers and for each other every day. .

I left our conference more convinced that our direction is the right one. Our strategy is an evolution, not a reinvention of what has made POOLCORP successful for more than 45 years. During my first full season as CEO, I deeply engaged with our employees, customers and suppliers to understand where we win and where we can improve. Our leadership team also spent time in the field and with customers where we identified specific points of friction we are working to remove.

The next step is to translate that feedback into an enhanced customer experience, stronger share capture and even better operational performance next season and for years to come. On that note, after I briefly touch on our third quarter results, I will discuss our key strategic initiatives and the actions underway and Melanie will take you through the financials in more detail during her prepared remarks.

Net sales grew 4% in the third quarter, reflecting price realization, volume growth and maintenance and building materials and share gains. Building Materials delivered its fifth consecutive quarter of growth despite a muted discretionary environment, and that growth was driven by our differentiated national Pool trends resources and new product introductions. Chemicals grew 4% primarily on volume. In both areas of the business, our focus on branding, private label and customer support through education and lead generation is showing up in our results. Equipment grew 5%, reflecting price and healthy volumes and replacement activity as seen in products, including pumps and filters.

POOL360 accounted for just over 17% of sales, up from the same quarter last year. Usage is seasonal and typically peaks in Q2, so we measure progress against the same quarter in the prior year rather than sequentially. By geography, results improved from last quarter. Florida, Arizona and Texas were each up low to mid-single digits. In those markets, our pool business continued to outperform permit data and irrigation and landscape, which is more closely tied to the housing market. California performed similarly to last quarter, while Horizon in California also had growth this quarter.

Europe continued its positive trends with 8% sales growth in local currency. Sales to retail customers moved from a 1% decline last quarter to growth of 3% in the third quarter. Pinch A Penny franchise sales to end users went from flat last quarter to up 3%. These results reflect resilient end market demands, our expanded retail support team and customer offerings and provide clear proof points of our investments translating into growth. Although our remains below last year's levels, the Irrigation and Landscape business remains tied to housing, which is a challenging end market at the moment.

We're operating in a market that isn't giving us much for free. Housing turnover and discretionary spending remains cautious and larger projects are still being delayed. However, our plan doesn't depend on relief from macro pressures. We're focused on controlling what we can control. Gross margin declined year-over-year with higher inbound freight and customer mix remaining the primary pressures as they were in the second quarter, along with the third quarter's comparison against last year's mid-season price increases. We have increased prices on freight-intensive products, including building materials in August to offset rising costs. Those increases are holding and have begun to recover some of the higher freight costs. We expect to recover more as those increases work their way through the channel and our pricing actions on vendor cost changes take effect at the beginning of next year.

On expenses, SG&A grew ahead of sales. We chose to protect those investments because they support next season's performance. At the same time, we are actively managing the cost base. We are also taking a disciplined approach to our network. During the quarter, we opened one location in Florida and consolidated two locations into existing sales centers using the density of our network to continue serving local demand at a lower cost to serve. Our goal is to invest where additional presence strengthens our position and to use our existing footprint more efficiently where we can.

Based on our steady performance to date and our visibility for the rest of the year, we are reaffirming our 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance. Melanie will cover the fourth quarter outlook, which reflects a smaller pricing benefit and a challenging gross margin comparison. We believe the combination of price discipline, private label expansion and productivity gains gives us a clear path to restoring operating leverage even in a flat volume environment with additional upside as volumes recover. As we exit the peak season and look toward 2027, we are focused on executing against our 4 priorities: sales excellence, pricing and supply chain discipline, operational execution, programmatic M&A.

Our maintenance-driven recurring revenue base provides resilience, and we see opportunities to grow share with our customers, build density in our network and execute more consistently across every market we serve. These are areas where we can take action regardless of the broader market environment, and they are supporting our performance today while positioning us for what's next. I will provide a brief update on each.

Our first priority is sales excellence. We are introducing new processes, training and tools because in our industry, businesses won locally. We are implementing centers of excellence to put more POOLCORP scale behind our sales centers, providing better information, better tools and more authority for the people closest to the customer. That is how scale wins in local markets. Over time, we expect these efforts to support top line growth, share gains and gross margin improvement.

During the quarter, we also moved ownership of our business development initiatives under field leadership and hired a new leader of national accounts and commercial. We are connecting our sales and marketing programs more closely through better targeting tools and more proactive reporting. Over time, we expect these actions to support market share growth and improve national accounts profitability. Within sales excellence, we are seeing early signs of progress and looking at our sales trends versus permit data, larger customer sales growth and growth in new customer accounts.

Additionally, the 7% growth in sales to commercial customers reflects the customer-centered focus of our team and the resources we have put behind the commercial growth opportunity. Our second priority is pricing and supply chain discipline. We are continuing to sharpen our pricing approach with decisions informed based on detailed analysis across our product lines and regions, not a one-size-fits-all approach. During the quarter, we tied pricing decisions within our organization more directly to cost and vendor inputs, aligning the cost side of the business with the sell side and creating data-driven decisions.

We are also concentrating our focus on private label expansion on chemicals and building materials or differentiated products offer opportunities for greater growth and margin benefit over time. Through the strategic efforts of our supply chain team and coordination with the field, we generated a healthy operating cash flow benefit from disciplined inventory management, with inventory down 3% from last year on 4% sales growth.

Our third priority is operational execution. We are driving higher standards of service per employees across all of our sales centers. Our teams are dedicated to increasing revenues in our recently opened greenfield sites to deliver performance in line with our broader network while also increasing productivity as these operations mature. We continue to invest in POOL360 water testing, e-commerce and integrations with our customers and we prioritize partnering over building where that's the better path. Above all, we are managing to the customer experience, not simply a metric. Our goal is to be the easiest distributor in the industry to do business with. That means addressing the identified points of friction to further improve the service and product reliability our customers count on.

Our fourth priority is programmatic M&A. We remain selective. We look for operational and financial fits, strong culture and talent and opportunities to strengthen our existing markets or add capabilities that extend our value proposition. M&A is a lever that accelerates our organic growth. It is not a substitute for it. We have the balance sheet and operating experience to be the acquirer of choice in our industry. Our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged. We invest in the business to drive profitable growth, pursue disciplined targeted M&A that aligns with our strategy, support the dividend and use excess cash for share repurchases, all while maintaining a conservative leverage ratio.

Looking ahead, we are focused on finishing 2026 on course and positioning the business for an even stronger future performance. We believe in our ability to win in our markets and generate above-market growth. We will continue refining our network and operations to improve efficiency and strengthen the customer experience. This is how we extend our competitive advantage and create long-term value for our shareholders.

As always, I want to thank all of our industry partners for your commitment to growing the outdoor living industry as one and trusting POOLCORP as your partner. I'll now turn the call over to Melanie Hart, our Senior Vice President, and Chief Financial Officer, to review our third quarter results in more detail.

Melanie M. Hart

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. We delivered solid sales growth in the quarter, while focusing on our people and our long-term priorities. Sales of $1.5 billion were up 4% compared to prior year, an acceleration from the 2% increase we saw in the second quarter, resulting in a 4% year-to-date improvement. Pricing contributed 3% of the 4% growth, while volumes adding the additional 1%, supported by growth in maintenance, stable renovation activity and new construction outperforming the permit trends. Gross profit dollars grew $7 million on higher sales. Gross margin of 29% was down 60 basis points from prior year, reflecting higher inbound freight costs, customer mix and the comparison against last year's mid-season price increases, partially offset by continued supply chain benefit.

On mix, our larger customers are growing faster than the rest of the customer base, which adds gross profit dollars, but compresses margin percentage. Our August price increase on the building materials, about 11% of third quarter sales, made headway in recovering some of the higher freight costs. Consistent with our pricing and supply chain discipline, we continue to work toward additional actions, both during the fourth quarter and as we plan for next season.

Operating expenses grew 5% or $13 million. The increase includes higher incentive compensation from higher sales, including special incentives for our sales team. increased employee insurance costs and outside fees related to our focus on programmatic M&A and other strategic initiatives. Headcount is lower than last year, and so this is not a structural step-up in our cost basis. As a result, operating income decreased 3% to $172 million and operating margin was 11.4%.

Interest and other expenses decreased $2.5 million from the second quarter as we move into our seasonally stronger cash flow generation period and reduce debt outstanding. Interest expense for the third quarter was $11.8 million, a year-over-year decrease of over $200,000. Share repurchases, which reduced diluted earnings per share about 3.5% year-over-year offset lower operating income and lifted adjusted diluted earnings per share to $3.40 compared to $3.39 in the third quarter of last year.

Moving on to our discussion of our balance sheet and capital allocation. Inventory of $1.2 billion was down $39 million or 3% from the prior year compared to a 4% year-over-year sales increase. Inventory decreased $194 million sequentially as we sold through our peak season stocking levels and early buy in opportunistic purchases we discussed last quarter.

Net cash from operations was $420 million year-to-date, up 47% from $286 million last year and equal to 115% of net income. We expect full year cash flow from operations to exceed net income. We have $468 million remaining under our share repurchase authorization and significant capacity available under our current debt agreement. Total debt of $1.2 billion was down from second quarter and carries an average interest rate of 4.2%. Our interest rate swaps are on track to reduce interest expense by approximately $9 million in 2026. They expire in February 2027. Following their expiration, our debt will still carry favorable market rates, priced at SOFR plus 1.25% or approximately 5.2% based on current rates. We intend to offset a portion of interest rate headwinds with lower inventory carrying costs. We remain within our target leverage ratio of 1.5 to 2x, finishing the quarter at $1.8 billion.

As we wrap up the third quarter, we are confirming our adjusted earnings guidance as we move into our seasonally slowest fourth quarter. We now expect slightly better top line growth for the full year between 3% and 4%, with a 3% contribution from pricing. October sales to date were up around 2%, in line with our fourth quarter outlook. That outlook reflects a smaller pricing benefit and is more heavily weighted to discretionary versus maintenance spend. Full year new pool builds are expected to be slightly low below prior year, consistent with current activity and permit trends.

Year-to-date gross margin was 29.3%, reflecting freight pressure, customer mix and the price increase comparison. Last year's fourth quarter margin benefited from pricing and supply chain improvements, so the comparison will remain difficult in the fourth quarter. Year-to-date adjusted operating expenses grew 3.7%, in line with sales. For the full year, we expect adjusted operating expenses to grow less than sales growth, with fourth quarter expense growth below the third as we lap last year's incremental IT costs. We expect full year interest expense of about $50 million and a full year adjusted tax rate near 25%, with no additional benefit from ASU for the remainder of the year.

Weighted average shares outstanding should be about 36 million for the fourth quarter and 36.2 million for the full year. Our adjusted earnings guidance is unchanged at $10.87 to $11.17, which at the midpoint implies growth of almost 3% over prior year. Including the $0.21 of onetime CEO transition expenses reported in the second quarter, our GAAP diluted EPS range remains $10.66 to $10.96, Looking ahead to 2027, we will have 1 less selling day for the full year, which will impact the fourth quarter.

In summary, our team delivered 4% sales growth and added gross profit dollars while we continue to strengthen our processes. The actions we are taking and the targeted investments we are making are to support the 4 priorities John outlined. We continue to generate strong cash flow, return significant capital to shareholders and invest in our network for the long term.

We are now ready to take your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question today comes from Susan Maklari from Goldman Sachs.

分析师问答

Susan Maklari

My first question is thinking about how you want to position the business as you look to '27, as if you've had some really nice initial success on the initiatives that you outlined for us last quarter. As you think about coming into the fourth quarter and the off season, what are the areas that you're most focused how do you want to position the business as we think about the spring of '27? And what could that mean for the future in terms of growth relative to margin?

John Watwood

Susan, great question. So the things that we've been working on, I would say, in season, I've been pretty open and honest on the record about you don't disrupt the business we'll continue to double down in the areas that we're starting to see improvements on. So with the restructure we have with sales excellence, with our new VP of National Accounts and commercial. Those things need to take a little time to work in, I would say. So we're excited about what we've built. We'll continue on our pricing journey and some of the investments there to set us up for a good 2027 season. I'd say, overall, the things that we've put in place in season, we can move a little faster on in some areas as we get out of season.

The freight piece is still a little bit of a concern right now as far as what's happening in the macro, that's outside of our control. But there's a lot we can control. I've been on record to saying that as we go into 2027, we're going to simplify our incentive plans. So that's well underway. And then we brought in some help to look at certain parts of the business to help us benchmark where we can improve. So we'll continue to work in those areas. As we look in I don't think 2027 materially from a macro level is going to be much different than 2026. So it's really going to be about what you can do internally to continue to improve, continue to execute.

We've got a lot of energy in the company right now. We've got some wins coming through. We're excited about that. We're not taking a victory lap by any means. But I think the foundation is there. And as we, again, move into 2027, I'm pretty excited about what we can achieve.

Susan Maklari

Okay. That's great to hear. And maybe building on that, can you talk a bit about just the competitive landscape that you're seeing out there? Has anything changed as the macro further weakened during the quarter? And what does that imply as you think about '27?

John Watwood

Yes, I haven't seen much change in it. I mean, it's always been a competitive industry. And I realize some of the narratives around that have changed over the past couple of years. But as I've said, we respect our competitors. We know that we have to take care of our own business. And when we do that, we'll win more times than we don't. So our focus remains the same about how we view our business. But no, no material change in competition. I don't expect to see a material change next year in competition. I think it's always going to be around and it's -- and it makes us better and we embrace it.

Operator

Our next question comes from David Manthey from Baird.

David Manthey

Yes. Thanks for the information on Slide 9. I'm wondering will you be giving us a quantitative framework about how you're thinking about those items, sales, price, operations, M&A, like I think the market has become accustomed to sort of a secular growth algorithm, and there's questions around that. any kind of specific quantifiable margin levers of M&A target ranges. Any quantitative information forthcoming here between now and next May?

John Watwood

Yes. I mean, between now and next May, yes, we're working through our budgeting and our plans now. We again put a lot of work in. We're excited about what we're seeing. But we're building our bottoms-up approach as we work through the remainder of the year. So as we come into next year and we announce our fourth quarter, then we'll break this down a little more granularly about where we see the -- as you said, the elements of the entire plan. So short answer is yes.

David Manthey

Okay. So maybe with fourth quarter reporting, we'll have some numbers around these?

John Watwood

Yes, sir. Yes, that's the plan. We're going to -- we've worked hard to have the best season possible, and I think we've achieved that. And again, as we work through the strategic initiatives and set ourselves up and we get -- I don't think there's going to be much change in how we view 2027 from a macro right now. That's what we'll put in the confidence around each one of our actions here and display that in our plan.

David Manthey

That's great. Okay. And then next question is on sort of the bonus compensation levels. And Melanie, I think you referenced this quarter, incentive comp sales, special incentives, and I know this has sort of been out there for a while, but is the low single-digit growth you're seeing this year enough to sort of trip those gates and reset us to normal levels? Or if we see additional even moderate growth next year, should we expect another maybe outsized step up in SG&A?

Melanie M. Hart

We still have some investment to make as we continue our growth path. So as we talked about in this quarter, we did have some incremental sales incentives that we put forth. So when you think about our traditional plans, they are based on primarily operating income, but we did implement some incremental incentives as part of our sales excellence culture this quarter. which did add some expense. And certainly, we saw the positive top line first that created that expense. But as we continue to work towards simplifying those plans, they will be aligned with our overall results and shareholder expectations. But as we continue to grow into next year, we will have some more investments that we'll need to make that will align with the growth that we see.

David Manthey

Okay. You think even at moderate top line, you'd be able to sort of get back to that 60% to 80% of top line growth or because these investments will be a little above that, maybe on the high end?

Melanie M. Hart

So the initial -- we still have some rebuilding to do on that. So we will have to absorb that as we kind of grow through some of the capacity in the network as well. So I think what you'll see there is you'll see higher incentive compensation, more leverage in the capacity in the network.

Operator

Our next question comes from Ryan Merkel from William Blair.

Ryan Merkel

I was hoping to start with gross margin. Melanie, can you put a finer point on gross margin expectations in the fourth quarter? It sounds like it might be down 60 basis points year-over-year, just given the mix and the freight headwinds.

Melanie M. Hart

Yes. So we put a little bit wider range on the full year expectation for gross margin coming out of what we saw in the third quarter. So freight rates did continue to climb. We put some actions in place that accounted for some of those increases overall. But as we look at the fourth quarter, our expectations for freight rates as a percentage of sales would be consistent with what we saw in third quarter. And so we also saw when you think about -- when you looked at fourth quarter last year, we had a really healthy fourth quarter margin rate. And so the comp gets more difficult.

But that being said, what we are looking at kind of in our forecast would be that you'll see over the last couple of years, we saw a step up in our gross margin from third quarter to fourth quarter. And so we would expect a similar higher rate in the fourth quarter than what we finished in the third quarter, but it will still be lower than what we reported last year.

Ryan Merkel

Got it. Okay. And then a question on inventory. It looks like you took it down a little bit here in the quarter. What are your plans for inventory heading into '27? And are there any targets on inventory days where you -- that you can share with us?

Melanie M. Hart

So at this point in time, we're still working with our vendors to get the full picture on early buy activity and orders and opportunities there. So we did -- when we looked at our balances in March of this year, we did have a higher inventory that we brought into the season. and that was with good reason, as we stated at that point in time. So it certainly will depend on our discussions with our vendors and what opportunities lie as part of those early buys.

Operator

Our next question comes from Scott Schneeberger from Oppenheimer.

Unknown Analyst

It's Daniel on for Scott. I just want to follow up on the gross margin question. It sounds like you're pricing well to set those freight costs. How should we think about the cadence for that to be fully offset. And just broader picture, the gross margin headwinds you have this year, including the large customer mix. To what degree should we think about those as we head into next year? And what can you do internally to offset it?

Melanie M. Hart

Yes. So from a pricing timing, so generally, what happens is that we're setting pricing at the beginning of the season. So that's early in the year. And that's most prevalent when you think about our equipment purchases. We were able to do a mid-season price increase for our building materials. And those particular items are generally priced by the job. So we were able to pass through some of that to offset those higher inbound freight costs there into -- in the third quarter, into the fourth quarter. As we look ahead for pricing, the majority of kind of the remainder of our pricing actions, we would expect to take place at the beginning of next season.

Unknown Analyst

And on discretionary sales, it was flat this quarter. Continued strength in Building Materials. It's been declining previously. Could you please address expectations for the fourth quarter when it comes to discretionary sales and also discuss the sustainability into next year?

Melanie M. Hart

Yes. So we've actually had 5 quarters of increases in building materials overall. So the trend there has been really very good. When you look at the percentage of fourth quarter sales -- so in second and third quarter, we typically will have more sales generated from our maintenance business. And then first and fourth quarter, we'll generate more of those discretionary sales, and so anything that's happening in those quarters typically are not a trend overall. And so when you also look at the permit data, we have been outperforming the permit data. Our sales have come in ahead of that. So we see no change in that. We would continue to expect that for fourth quarter. But based on kind of the preliminary data, we are year-to-date the permit data is lower than last year. And so we don't have any reason to expect that, that wouldn't continue into the fourth quarter. So overall, we would expect permit data down our sales to come in better than the permit data.

Operator

Our next question comes from Steve Volkmann from Jefferies.

Stephen Volkmann

I think both of you guys called out mix as a little bit of a headwind this quarter. And I guess you're doing more business with larger customers that's probably good for growth. But I'm curious, I don't know, just order of magnitude, how much of your business is actually with those large customers these days? And that seems likely to just kind of continue in perpetuity as that part of the market consolidates. So how do you think about that playing out going forward?

John Watwood

Yes. So we -- there's a lot of different classifications for large customers. I'll say in the context of what we're discussing here. We're still about mid-single digits overall, I would say, in what we classify as a large customer, and they are growing, and that's a good thing. We're we focused on that, and we've had the ELT in front of these large customers. We do believe over time, there's profitability to be had there. So that's on us to find ways to be, I would say, more efficient in how we operate with certain customers, and they're looking for that as well.

Now, I would say as you look to the future, we saw good growth in the medium and small accounts as well. And we've got a couple of things we're working on between now and the end of the year so that we understand that segment and service that segment better. So I wouldn't necessarily try to trend this out over the next 12 to 18 months. It's just a construct of what we have right now. As far as consolidations and things like that, I haven't seen much noise or news on that. in the past quarter, I can't really predict what's going to happen there.

But I think one thing we've done throughout the season is we've really set the foundation to understand how we deal with each customer segment. And we definitely don't look at growth at any level as a bad thing. But we've also got our eyes on kind of that medium and small account and how do we make that a little more sticky.

Stephen Volkmann

Okay. Good. That's helpful. And then maybe the follow-up. I'm curious, I guess, this feels like a difficult operating environment for some of your smaller competitors. And I'm curious if you think you're starting to see any type of real stress in that sort of smaller group of competitors, which might add to some shutdowns or maybe they'd even sell the business? Or just how do you think those guys are faring here?

John Watwood

Yes. We always try to stay away from speculating on things like that. It's a tough operating environment, but you've got some smart people running those businesses as well. I get to be the one and only that being pulled that gets to display. I know that we've done a really good job in some markets where we've got some good regional competitors. And that's probably as deep as I could go with it. We've not heard any rumors or any chatter in the market nor would we share that if we did about certain shutdowns or anything like that right now outside of what's been out there in the market about [indiscernible]. So -- no. Short answer is I don't really have any insight into it.

Operator

Our next question comes from Trey Grooms from Stephens.

Trey Grooms

I guess for me, just kind of thinking about the pricing, you guys had mentioned mid-season price increases on building materials. and you guys usually increased at the beginning of the season and taking that and then maybe what you're hearing from your suppliers, et cetera, as we kind of look into next year, and what's needed to recoup freight on your end. Any high-level thoughts on how we should be thinking about kind of overall inflation and its impact on the top line for next year for you guys?

John Watwood

Yes. I would like to tell you we have the complete picture on that right now. We don't. We do have some of our suppliers' price increases and their expectations of next year, but we don't have enough to really put a pin on the map quite yet. So again, short answer there is to be determined probably over the next 30 to 45 days. The freight situation we found ourselves in, and I think I touched on this maybe in some conferences and things. We really haven't seen freight increases quite like what we've experienced the past year since COVID, but the thing about COVID was, obviously, you had a whole lot of top line coming in, so it kind of absorbed it.

As we move into the rest of the season and we prepare for next year, obviously, we want to work very hard to mitigate as much of that as we can, what we at least can control. And we're certainly focused on that. The price increases that we put through very targeted and very specific product groups or really just to kind of recoup some of those expenses. And we also chose deliberately to absorb some of those expenses, which shows up in the margin and a little bit in the SG&A. Look, it's a high-cost environment. We want to be the best partner to our customers. And we know a lot of those jobs were already bid and already costed. So we took some hits on that as well because it's the right thing to do.

Now as we move into next year, as we get to clear picture, then we can talk more about what that inflationary environment will look like.

Trey Grooms

Yes. Okay. Understood. Fair enough. And then I've got one for Melanie, just to make sure that I'm understanding some of the comments around gross margin and SG&A in the 4Q. So it sounded like just on the gross margin side of things, it should be less bad, I guess, versus 3Q is down 58 bps or down less maybe than what we saw in 3Q. Just to make sure I heard that right.

Melanie M. Hart

Yes. I don't know that we're ready to say that it will be down less because we're carrying some of the...

Trey Grooms

We say the 3Q any more color or granularity around that would be super helpful.

Melanie M. Hart

Yes. I'm sorry. I think we've had a glitch because I missed part of your question. So I was starting to answer, but then I think you kept going.

Trey Grooms

Yes, I'm so sorry about that. Do I need to repeat? Or you good?

Melanie M. Hart

Well, I'll answer the first part, and then you can tell me if I miss anything. From a trend standpoint, the freight -- the increase in the credit expense as a percentage of sales will be -- we're projecting that to be consistent with where we are in third quarter. So that will continue to be a drag into the fourth quarter. So the -- and we also had a good fourth quarter. So we could expect that if you're looking at the year-over-year, the comparison could get worse. But the margin reported for fourth quarter will be slightly better than the third quarter.

Trey Grooms

Got it. Got it. Okay. And then the second part of my question, was just around the 4Q SG&A. You had mentioned that the rate of growth will be below 3Q. So just any more color you could give us around that as we're thinking about kind of tying up our model here.

Melanie M. Hart

Yes. So we came in 5% expense growth in 3Q. We would expect to do better than that in 4Q. If we ultimately do see some incremental incentive compensation that will be tied directly to sales overall from that standpoint. And then the other thing that we do expect to see in fourth quarter is some continued investment on some of our strategic initiatives that we're working for to prepare us ahead of next year. So we will still expect to see expense growth in the fourth quarter. But when you look at the overall -- the full year adjusted backing out the incremental cost senior transition cost in the second quarter, we would expect that expense growth for the full year will come in less than sales growth.

Operator

Our next question comes from David MacGregor from Longbow Research.

David S. MacGregor

I wanted to ask you, I guess you talked about pinch being up 3%. So I just wanted to ask you if you're seeing any indications of shift by pool owners from do it for me to DIY.

John Watwood

No, I wouldn't say anything material yet. We kind of dug into that a little bit once we saw the numbers. I think that's more the pinch performance, just like we've seen with the independent retailers as well, is really more of an outcome of just providing a good customer experience. And I think it's not any more complicated than that. because our service business has remained very strong as well. So if we would have seen a degradation maybe on the maintenance and service side, and then maybe a significant increase on that side, maybe you can correlate the two. But we're certainly not -- we're just not seeing that shift right now.

David S. MacGregor

Okay. Good to hear. And then second question, just with respect to the high-impact actions and investments that you outlined that Slide 9 was very helpful. So thanks for that. But can you just talk about the progress you may be making or intend to make at least on the leveraging of the technology investments in the past few years? And I realize this focus is just getting underway here, so it's still fairly new. But how impactful do you think that could be to '27 margins and how do you focus on -- how do you build that leverage?

John Watwood

Yes. So the technology path that we're on right now is really kind of evaluating where we're at. We've been doing that for the past couple of months. We haven't -- we're not just starting that by any means. And it's really looking at our internal technology and our customer-facing technology, where we did to play where we don't need to play. I've talked about this before in certain conferences where we brought in some third parties really help evaluate kind of where we're at and where we need to go. And we're getting the outputs of those now, and we're putting the plans together. Look, I'll talk more about that as we kind of build the elements as a previous question asked. We build the elements into what our strategic actions are going to get us, but certainly, it is a big piece of what we're focused on right now and how we prioritize, how we invest, how we expect the returns of those.

Look, we've got some third-party integrations we're working through right now that we've announced. We're super excited about those. We think they drive not just efficiencies, but they drive top line, they drive POOL360 adoption in some areas as well. So it's not something we're just sitting and waiting on, but more to come.

Operator

Our next question comes from Collin Verron Baron from Deutsche Bank.

Collin Verron

I just wanted to dive into the SG&A a little bit further in those higher employee insurance and outside fees. I guess any color as to how much of a headwind or how much of an impact those incremental costs had in the third quarter and how we should think about those going forward and how long it should linger. And then if you could just give any more color sort of the outside fees related to strategic initiatives. Is it more on the sales initiatives and pricing initiatives? Or are you looking at acquisitions or divestitures? Just any color you could put around that would be helpful.

Melanie M. Hart

Yes. I would say that the -- our focus in the quarter has been on really all of the priorities. So we have work streams that are occurring in each of those areas that we're making really strong progress forward to set us up for next season.

Collin Verron

Okay. Understood. And I guess, just on overall margin and how you guys are thinking about this going forward. I mean, the backdrop continues to play out as it is into 2027. Are your self-help levers large enough to drive margin expansion at either gross margin or EBIT margin? And -- or do you really need a sales growth to accelerate to start seeing margin expansion? Any color would be helpful.

John Watwood

Yes. Look, as I said earlier, and as you've heard from others, not just in this industry, but in the consumer discretionary space, no matter what it is, I don't think anybody is looking at 2027 right now and saying it's going to be materially different than 2026. So I think we're all focused internally on what we need to do. We think we've got a lot of self-help initiatives that will put us in a good spot next year. We think we're seeing some of the green shoots of that right now. Obviously, it's one quarter, we're not taking a victory lap. We still have a lot of work to do and things can change between now and the first of the year. So short answer is we're expecting it to be kill everything you can, and that's all you're going to get. The market is not going to give anything for free next year, and we're positioning the company to go take what we can get.

Operator

Our next question comes from Sam Reid from Wells Fargo.

Richard Reid

I was hoping if we could just quickly unpack the 2% sales growth in October. It sounds like pricing moderated. But does it also imply that volumes perhaps inflected negative I just want to maybe understand that 2% a little bit more.

Melanie M. Hart

Yes. From a pricing standpoint, we would expect the comparison to be more difficult in the fourth quarter because we did have better pricing in the fourth quarter of last year. So no negative trends on the volume side. .

Richard Reid

That's helpful. And then maybe a bigger picture question. Just thinking to next year, perhaps Analyst Day, perhaps the fourth quarter earnings call. Are we going to get any updates on your algorithm? I just want to make sure I understand kind of what we could potentially look out for there I know you're going to give some more quantification on that Slide 9, which is very helpful. But would that also include perhaps some tweaks to the algo.

John Watwood

Yes. I mean we've talked about this a good bit about what the long-term algorithm is and what the market gives us now and what the market should normalize in, we would hope to normalize in, in the future. So short answer there is yes. We'll have a deeper discussion in that. And I've been very clear and on the record. If we could get back to a normalized environment, roughly 80,000 new pools and some other things. I think the long-term algorithm as it's been in the past is fine. It's really what we're all challenged with, I would say, is trying to figure out when that's going to happen.

Operator

Our next question comes from Shaun Calnan from Bank of America.

Shaun Calnan

Just a couple of follow-ups on the pricing to start. Can you quantify how much the benefit was from the building materials price increase -- and then have you been able to pass along any of the surcharges you're seeing on the remainder of products? Or should we think that creates easier comps as those flow through next year?

Melanie M. Hart

So for the -- related to the building materials, so a couple of fine points. I did call out that it's about 11% of sales for the quarter. So it's just a portion of the sales. And then that price increase also did start kind of mid-quarter. So we did get some incremental benefit. We did report a slightly higher pricing benefit for the quarter than what we had talked about and included in our forecast discussion last quarter. So that helps to quantify the kind of the scoping on the building materials overall. And then as it relates to the pricing on the rest of it, again, we would look toward those pricing actions in early season for 2027. And then we also do -- we did talk about earlier in second quarter that we did put a freight surcharge in for the product that we deliver, which, again, it just relates to a portion of our business overall.

Shaun Calnan

Okay. Great. And then the other one I had was on the higher incentive comp. Is this a permanent shift to have the sales team focus more on top line growth? Or are these kind of like onetime specialized incentives for that team?

John Watwood

Yes, some of it was onetime specialized for the team. Obviously, we -- as we go into next year, something else we've talked about a good bit, is making sure the incentive plans are aligned correctly. and really kind of pay for themselves as we grow. So I wouldn't look at it as any sort of structural change or any sort of long-term negative impact. .

Operator

Our next question comes from Garik Shmois from D.A. Davidson.

Garik Shmois

I wondering if you can go into a little more detail as to what drove the recovery in sales across your main geographies in 3Q, certainly compared to the second quarter. And also, how did some of the more seasonal markets perform?

John Watwood

Yes. I think overall, we were pleased with all markets, all things considered. So to get in a little bit more detail there, we had some structural changes in the beginning of the year that put us in a position to be a little more customer focused. a little more emphasis on the customer. I mean, obviously, we've been out talking to our employees, talking to customers or moving friction points, that's really gone a long way. Also a little bit of connectivity throughout the organization, right? We've got a lot of scale that we can utilize as we talk about to win locally, and I think we're seeing some benefits of that.

We just had our international sales conference, I discussed in my opening remarks. Part of that was we got to celebrate some really nice wins where we talked about how we understood the specific needs of the individual customer and kind of rallied the troops around how we offer a differentiated, I would say, program process to help them grow their business. And that varies. I mean, there's just no one answer to all that. The key is being able to operate and execute locally on whatever your market requires, a piece of that's product mix, a piece of that is service related. I think we're very good in some of those areas. I think there were some things we just needed to adjust as we go and we certainly have.

But I just can't -- just don't underestimate the impact of getting back to basics and it all starts with listening, listening to the customers, listening to employees. And I want to call this out, too. We work very closely with our strategic suppliers throughout this quarter on programs. And these programs are usually in place year-over-year, but I felt like we did a little bit better job this year trying to executing on the programs as they came in, in the various parts of the season, particularly in Q3. And I think that really drove a top line benefit for us. So as we move forward, it needs to be more of the same.

Last thing I'll touch on is national accounts. Obviously, we brought in a new leader there. We've got some new talent within that organization. We've seen some really good benefit there, some really good growth. Again, it starts with listening. And I think the difference there is you're talking about kind of bigger organizations. So we really work to connect our organization with their organization, and that's all the departments. And I will tell you just a few conversations we've had to some of these large customers, many more to come. have uncovered some pain points and some opportunities, and we're executing on those. So very early innings. Really happy about the quarter, very positive. We got a long way to go here, but excited to see kind of the foundation to get put in place.

Garik Shmois

Understood. I wanted to follow up on just sales center capacity. You consolidated 4 locations, but added 2 this year, so you're down net 2%. I was hoping you could speak to just how you're thinking balancing maintaining density versus additional consolidation as you head into '27?

John Watwood

Yes. I mean for us, it's pretty simple. You go where the market goes and sometimes the market moves. And sometimes, we have opportunities to be more efficient in some areas. We've got a big network, and we can do love that network in a lot of different ways. So if a market is moving in a certain area and we understand the needs of the customer there, and proximity is key here, proximity product amount of drop times you have with service and things like that, then we'll grow accordingly there. And that's really where our focus remains. Because our network is really big, too, especially in these larger markets, we can do some things differently than some of our competition. We can stage some products in some areas that can be shipped. And then, of course, we can be more service-focused than others. So that's really kind of the basis of the way we look at it. As we look to the future, we'll also be open to different ways of serving our customers, right? And it doesn't always have to be a 30,000 or 40,000 square foot building.

So I think, again, the key here is that we have the agility and the flexibility to do what we need to do. And in some cases, the market moves away from a particular area or we see benefit for consolidation and efficiencies. There's no reason not to take advantage of that as well.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Steven Forbes from Guggenheim.

Steven Forbes

John, maybe just a clarification around the special incentive payment. It sort of sounds like that might have been more retention focused. So maybe curious of your thoughts there. And then more importantly, as we think about sort of reinstilling a sales culture, right -- sales excellence culture back into the team, any thoughts on like how much increased flexibility they're sort of needed at the local level to make sure you're driving on your growth initiatives within those small and medium customers. Like what's the higher level you sort of need here as we think out to 2027 to get the business sort of performing at a higher level, noting obviously, the third quarter performance was solid. .

John Watwood

Sure. Yes. So on the first one, no, it wasn't retention-based. It was more about those that are in the field executing day in and day out, working 10, 12 hours a day. We wanted to incentivize their hard work, and they definitely came through, and we appreciate that, and we appreciate the efforts of all of our employees. So -- but it wasn't retention-based at all. Now as we move forward to more about the sales excellence, the medium and small customers, what we do in a local market, there's a balance, and I've said this from my time in my previous role as well, distribution works best when it's balanced when you're utilizing your scale to win locally. And I know that's not just a tagline, but it's really listening to those individual service center managers, regional managers and the GMs about what they need locally to win. And that's a different conversation by the branch. Obviously, it starts with having the right product mix, the right depth, all that, we're pretty good at that.

The technology even that we utilize branch-to-branch can change a little bit depending on what the customer segmentation is, right? Is it more service? Is it more builder whatever it is. So therefore, the service, I'd say, component of that changes as well. So it's never just a one-size-fits-all, and I'm not sitting here saying we were using a one-size-fits-all. I just -- when I came into the organization very earlier on, I felt like we could be a little more flexible in the field to empower our people to go win, we could listen to the customer and figure out kind of what those friction points are and address accordingly. So as I said earlier, there's no one-size-fits-all approach to this. You listen to your people that are closest to the customer. You certainly listen to the customer, you certainly partner up with your strategic suppliers. And out of that comes some pretty good ideas because we've got some pretty smart people in all those areas and then you execute on it. It's, again, distribution one-on-one, and that's why we really harp on getting back to basics.

Steven Forbes

And then maybe a follow-up on that with the new VP of National Commercial accounts, how should we sort of think about the evolution of the potential initiatives right you have that individual leaning into? Like should we expect field right, whether it's reduced span of control, right, additional field sort of support? Like what -- where is your mindset on sort of like what the needs are for the national account business as it pertains to sort of expense-oriented pressures or investments?

John Watwood

Yes. I wouldn't view national accounts as just expense-oriented pressures. It just operates a different way. Now good news is in my previous company, we were very big at this. So -- but may no doubt about it, it happens at the local level. So what this individual has is, one, a lot of experience working with national accounts. And as I touched on in an earlier question, it's really about the connectivity throughout the organization. You're connecting with supply -- their supply chain, you're connecting with their IT, you're connecting with their marketing, you're figuring out how you integrate better. And also a big piece of this is consistency across the organization. I mean these are multisite, multistate organizations. They want to operate -- sometimes they want to consolidate around a particular product or product group. Sometimes they want to get into new product groups. How can we help them with that? .

So you need a central point of contact to have that consistency and to help the field execute, not execute on behalf of the field. And I think that's the biggest piece here. This is to support the field efforts in a consolidated manner. Many of these customers, like I said, they're looking at their spend, they want certain chemical programs, they want certain equipment programs, they want certain deliveries, they want certain connectivity. You just can't do that, trying to get 7 or 8 or 9 liters or maybe 10 or 15 in a room and figure it out. That's really where this national accounts team does an excellent job.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jeffrey Hammond from KeyBanc.

David Tarantino

This is David Tarantino on for Jeff. John, I know you highlighted selective M&A when it comes to capital allocation, but would you consider leaning more into buybacks, particularly with the stronger free cash flow beginning to show through here and the recent pullback in the stock?

John Watwood

Yes, we -- I would say we have -- I know that's -- this is more Melanie realm, so I'm going to ask her to tie in here in a minute. Look, there's some opportunities out there on M&A. We've got a much more healthy pipeline now than we did just a few months ago. So I'm excited about our prospects. Obviously, nothing to announce today. As we talked about in our capital allocation strategy, not much has changed, buybacks are a part of that, and there is certainly plenty of authorization left to buy back shares at the lower valuation that we've seen. So Melanie, anything you want to add?

Melanie M. Hart

Yes. You'll see that we did do a nice step-up in our buybacks during the quarter. A lot of that has to do with the cycle of the way that our cash flow comes in. So typically, in the beginning of the year, we are using cash because we're investing in inventory. In first quarter, we are paying our early buys in second quarter. And so third and fourth quarter is when we generate the bulk of the cash flow for the year. And so our share buyback process really just kind of follows that excess cash flow timing.

David Tarantino

Great. And then just a quick follow-up. Just on Chemicals. Could you kind of lease us somewhat you're seeing there from a pricing perspective, it seems like it's leveling out just with the bankruptcy of one of your competitors there. Just any color there would be helpful.

John Watwood

I would just say, overall, in the chemical space, this has been a really good bright spot for us. There has been some price deflation year-to-date. I would say it's moderating a little bit. So our growth there has been volume and a lot of volume. So -- but we put some investments in that as well going into last year that I think have paid off as we worked through 2026 and should continue in '27 and '28. So -- look, overall, we're very bullish chemicals is what gets a lot of people in the door. So I'm really excited about where we're at and what we're seeing in that product group now and in the future. I wouldn't say any sort of bankruptcy has impacted that one way or the other. That's a little too early to tell. .

Operator

And with that, ladies and gentlemen, we'll be concluding today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to John Watwood for closing remarks.

John Watwood

Thanks. As I close, I want to share what drives my confidence about where POOLCORP is headed. We operate in an industry with a durable foundation and customers who are allowing us season after season. On top of that foundation, we have something no one else in our industry can easily replicate. and network of local sales centers backed by the scale of the largest distributor in the industry. When we put more of that scale behind our people closest to the customer, we win in local markets. This is the heart of our strategy. We're building stronger sales capabilities, sharper pricing and supply chain discipline and a more connected network. We're investing in the tools to ensure we're the easiest distributor in the industry to do business with, and we are doing it from a position of financial strength with the flexibility to invest in our business, pursue strategic M&A that expands our network and return capital to shareholders. We look forward to sharing more about these opportunities at our Investor Day in the first half of next year, and we will report full year and fourth quarter results on February 18, 2027. Thank you for your time today and your interest in POOLCORP.

Operator

And with that, we'll be concluding today's conference call and presentation. We do thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

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