唯他可可 (COCO) 2026年第三季度业绩电话会议：因销售额增长34%上调业绩指引

核心要点

• Vita Coco Company公布2026财年第三季度净销售额为2.44亿 美元，同比增长34%。有机增长 为18%，同时Copra在美洲市场贡献了2900万 美元。
• Vita Coco椰子水净销售额增长15%， 而自有品牌销售额增长152%，受品类增长、分销拓展及收购Copra的支撑。
• 归属于股东的净利润从上年同期的2400万美元（即稀释后每股0.40美元）增至3500万 美元，即稀释后每股0.58美元。
• 调整后EBITDA从3200万美元增至5300万美元，调整后EBITDA利润率从18%扩大至 22%。
• 管理层将全年净销售额指引上调至8.10亿至8.20亿 美元，调整后EBITDA指引上调至1.70亿至1.75亿 美元。全年毛利率预计仍为约40%。
• 供应限制和海运成本高企仍是近期的主要压力来源。管理层预计第四季度毛利率约为 33%，并计划在2027年初进行价格调整。

关键财务数据

业务与经营表现

美洲业务板块实现净销售额1.99亿美元，增长31%。Vita Coco椰子水销售额增长 8%至1.43亿美元，反映出出货量增长9%以及净价格/组合的轻微下滑。自有品牌销售额攀升 224%至4600万美元，得益于Copra约10周的销量贡献及其溢价定价。

国际净销售额增长48%。Vita Coco椰子水销售额增长57%，而自有品牌销售额 增长27%。管理层重点提到了德国市场（增长超过100%），并表示英国零售扫码销售额增速保持在30%左右的区间。

今年迄今，椰子水品类的零售额在美国增长了28%，在受监测的欧洲市场增长了66%。不包含Treats等椰奶类产品的Vita Coco椰子水在美国增长了27%，在受监测的欧洲市场增长了54%。

管理层估计，今年迄今美国Vita Coco品牌业务的增长中，略多于一半来自于家庭渗透率的提升，其余部分来自每户家庭消费量的增加。

Copra的整合工作进展顺利，且成本低于最初计划。然而，该业务目前正处于满负荷运转状态，在2027年中后期新产能投放之前，近期的销售额上升空间将受到限制。

面向2027年，公司计划推出运动风格的Vita Coco风味，包括柠檬青柠、蓝树莓和水果冲饮（Fruit Punch），以及主要面向餐饮渠道的310毫升纤体罐装Vita Coco Kids，并为Vita Coco Treats推出全新的椰林飘香（Pina Colada）风味。

管理层业绩指引

基于品类持续强劲的发展势头以及Copra的初期表现，管理层上调了2026财年业绩展望：

管理层预计第四季度毛利率将降至约 33%，主要是因为夏季产生的高额海运成本将滞后三到四个月体现在损益表中。产品组合和其它成本通胀也将压低盈利能力。

公司已向分销商和零售商传达了2027年第一季度的涨价计划。这些调整旨在抵消包装、工厂和部分物流成本的结构性上涨。管理层预计，如果海运成本维持在目前的高位，初始提价举措将无法完全抵消海运成本。

管理层表示，现有和计划中的产能应能支持当前的销量增长趋势延续至2027年。预计上半年产能利用率将保持在95%附近，随后在当年较晚时候新产能投产后有所缓解。根据当前的增长和产能假设，公司的目标是在2028年重返其青睐的85%产能利用率模式。

风险与关注领域

• 海运与物流：集装箱短缺、港口拥堵和转运延误降低了服务水平，导致公司在第三季度未能完全满足客户需求。
• 利润率压力：即期集装箱运价高企、承运商附加费、国内运输费用和包装通胀预计将对第四季度毛利率造成沉重负担。
• 库存可得性：最近几周，零售端缺货已开始对扫码数据增长造成轻微抑制。管理层预计服务水平将得到改善，但库存恢复的时间可能会延长至2027年第一季度。
• 产能瓶颈：预计2027年初生产产能仍将吃紧。Copra也正满负荷运转，限制了其高端品牌业务的近期扩张。
• 定价不确定性：管理层表示，如果海运成本未能恢复正常，可能需要进一步提价，以实现其在30%高段（接近40%）的长期毛利率目标。
• 航线风险暴露：源自菲律宾的产品通常需要在中国或新加坡转运，从而产生了不同于使用来自越南或泰国直航航线的竞争对手的物流风险。

分析师问答环节要点

利润率修复：管理层表示，计划中的2027年定价旨在覆盖被视为结构性的成本，包括包装和工厂通胀。海运费用被视为较为暂时的，但如果高运价持续，可能会考虑进一步提价。

国际业务增长：管理层认为欧洲市场仍有进一步拓展的空间，并指出英国的人均椰子水消费量约为美国水平的三分之一，而德国约为六分之一。管理层预计国际业务增长将保持健康，尽管随着基数的扩大增速可能会有所放缓。

缺货与递延销售：公司确认第三季度的出货量低于客户需求。随着库存重建，管理层预计美国出货量的增长将快于零售扫码增长，但具体时间取决于集装箱到达情况和港口状况。

市场份额与竞争：管理层将近期品牌份额面临的部分压力归因于供应限制和强劲的自有品牌增长。管理层指出，尽管采购路线有所不同，但竞争对手似乎面临着类似的全行业运费和货源可得性问题。

产能分配：公司打算在品牌产品和长期自有品牌合作伙伴之间公平分配可用供应。管理层强调，尽管供应紧张，但在2026财年期间仍超额兑现了对自有品牌客户的承诺。

创新产品的经济性：运动风味产品将使用浓缩椰子水，从而提供更大的灵活性，可以在更靠近终端市场的地方进行制造，并更快地响应需求。初期利润率可能会低于长期目标，但如果销量形成规模，这些产品的目标是达到预期的利润率水平。

业绩电话会议完整文字记录

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完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Hello, and welcome to The Vita Coco Company's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Michelle. I'll be coordinating your call today. [Operator Instructions] I'd like now to hand the call over to John Mills with ICR. Please go ahead.

John Mills

Thank you, and welcome to The Vita Coco Company Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Results Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. With us are Mr. Mike Kirban, Executive Chairman; Martin Roper, Chief Executive Officer; and Corey Baker, Chief Financial Officer. By now, everyone should have access to the company's third quarter earnings release issued earlier today. This information is available on the Investor Relations section of The Vita Coco Company's website at investors.thevitacococompany.com. Accompanying the press release is a presentation covering our commercial and financial performance results, also available on the website.

Certain comments made on this call include forward-looking statements, which are subject to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and beliefs concerning future events and are subject to several risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in these forward-looking statements. Please refer to today's press release and other filings with the SEC for a more detailed discussion of the risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements made today. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

During the call, we will reference certain non-GAAP financial measures as we describe our business performance. Our SEC filings as well as the earnings press release and supplementary earnings presentation provide reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures and are available on our website as well.

With that, it is my pleasure to now turn the call over to Mike Kirban, our Co-Founder and Executive Chairman.

Michael Kirban

Thanks, John. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss our third quarter financial results. We had another very strong quarter with the demand acceleration we saw in the first half continuing through the third quarter across all of our major markets. What's most encouraging is the strength we're seeing across both the coconut water category and The Vita Coco brand. Consumer demand remains strong, and our teams have done a great job executing in what continues to be a dynamic supply environment. The coconut water category remains incredibly healthy and continues to be one of the fastest-growing categories in the beverage aisle.

According to our retail scan data, year-to-date category retail dollar sales grew 28% in the U.S. and 66% in our measured European markets. Vita Coco Coconut Water, excluding coconut milk-based products like treats, also grew 27% year-to-date in retail dollars in the U.S. and 54% in our measured European markets. These results reinforce our belief that coconut water is still in the early stages of achieving mainstream appeal. Household penetration remains meaningfully below mainstream juices, sport drinks and other functional beverage categories across our major markets, which we believe provides a long runway for our growth. Our strategy is straightforward: grow the coconut water category while expanding our share through strong brand performance and strategic private label relationships. We're focused on recruiting new households, increasing consumption occasions and reinforcing coconut water's functional benefits.

We believe the growth we're seeing today is evidence that this strategy is working. As we think beyond this quarter and continue to plan for what we believe will be many years of continued growth, we're very focused on enhancing and expanding our supply chain, which we believe is one of our greatest competitive advantages. We're investing in our long-term supply capabilities, adding new factory partnerships and supporting existing partners as they expand capacity. While it's too early to provide financial guidance for 2027, based on the capacity we have today and the additional capacity we expect to bring online in the near term, we expect our supply will be able to support a continuation of current volume growth trends into next year and beyond.

As we discussed in July, the Copra acquisition gives us a meaningful position in the super premium Thai Nam Hom segment of coconut water, an attractive part of the category where we previously didn't play. We estimate the super-premium chilled segment represents approximately 13% of U.S. coconut water sales and is growing faster than the overall category year-to-date with retail price points nearly double those of shelf-stable coconut water. The Copra business has operated smoothly since closing in late July, and our progress on integration has exceeded our expectations. I want to thank everyone involved for the work they've done to bring the 2 businesses together as one high-performing coconut water company.

As we look to 2027, we plan to continue using innovation to create new occasions, reach new customers and expand where and how coconut water is consumed. Over the next couple of months in the U.S., we'll be launching Vita Coco in what we're calling our sports-inspired flavors, including Lemon Lime, Blue Raspberry and Fruit Punch. It's the coconut water consumers already know and love from Vita Coco with flavors designed to appeal to the growing number of younger consumers looking for alternatives to traditional sport drinks. We'll also be launching Vita Coco Kids, a 6-pack 8-ounce Vita Coco pure coconut water designed specifically for younger children and families. Additionally, we're planning the introduction of a new 310-milliliter slim can primarily targeted toward foodservice accounts, giving us another format to expand into new channels and new occasions. And we're continuing to build out the Vita Coco treat lineup with a new Pina Colada flavor.

Taken together, Copra and these innovations are great examples of how we're thinking about the opportunity ahead of us, playing more fully across the coconut water category, bringing new consumers into it and creating more occasions and channels for them to enjoy our products. We spent years building this category, our brand and our supply chain. I believe coconut water will become a major global beverage category over time and that Vita Coco is well positioned to be the leading brand.

And now I'll turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Martin Roper.

Martin Roper

Thanks, Mike. Good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to share details on Vita Coco's robust third quarter performance. Our net sales in the quarter were up 34%, driven by the strong growth of Vita Coco Coconut Water of 15% and private label growth of 152%. The coconut water category and our brand trends are very strong across all our major markets. I am particularly encouraged by the exceptional growth rates being delivered by our European teams.

In the U.S., as we analyze the source of our accelerated demand, we estimate that just over half of our U.S. Vita Coco branded business growth year-to-date is attributable to increased household penetration with the remaining coming from velocity growth per household, a pattern that signals strong brand momentum and potential. Our private label shipment growth for the quarter reflects the addition of the Copra private label business since late July, multiple private label distribution gains and the underlying category growth. With respect to service levels, demand year-to-date for both brand and private label products continued to exceed our projections. Within the quarter, our supply chain became tighter, resulting in reduced service levels, and our shipments lagged our continued strong retail scan growth. Additionally, in the most recent weeks, we have seen instances of retail out of stocks slightly depressing our scan growth.

While production levels are sufficient to meet demand, container availability during the quarter was challenging with inventory building at suppliers. In October, we made progress, and we expect our service levels to improve during the fourth quarter. We expect to see strong shipment growth through year-end, rebuilding inventory throughout the system and preparing for another strong year in 2027. As we think about inflation and pricing moving forward, we are seeing higher ocean freight costs, elevated domestic transportation costs and inefficiencies, and increases in packaging costs. As we communicated last quarter, we chose to apply our tariff refunds against our cost increases rather than taking pricing this year in order to support our consumers and retail partners while we assess which affects our long-term structural cost increases.

Starting in May, we saw ocean freight spike. While our contracts provided a degree of protection in negotiations with carriers, many of the increases were positioned as fuel or demand surcharges on top of contract rates. Accompanying these cost increases were some service disruptions that impacted timely arrival of containers to the selling markets in the third quarter and delayed our ability to rebuild our inventories. To secure containers to meet our demand, we have purchased spot rate containers and paid significant surcharges over contract rates with our contract carriers. We view current ocean freight costs as unusual and likely temporary and have seen rates to Europe ease from the July peak. We expect other lanes to also normalize over time. The ocean freight cost increases, along with the other inflationary effects previously mentioned will impact our fourth quarter gross margins and are reflected in our updated guidance.

We have communicated to our distributor and retail partners our intent to implement pricing adjustments in early 2027 to compensate for the cost increases that we view as structural. While the specific price increases vary by product and market, our objective with these adjustments is to meet our branded and private label gross margin targets, assuming some easing in current ocean freight costs. I'm pleased to say that the Copra integration is proceeding smoothly. I recently had the pleasure of visiting the Copra facility located in Ratchaburi Province, Thailand, an ideal location for sourcing Nam Hom coconuts. I was impressed by our local team, the capabilities they have built and the quality of the operations. We believe that we produce the best quality product in the super-premium segment due to our integrated coconut water extraction and packaging model, which we intend to preserve and scale.

As we look to the remainder of 2026, we are raising our full year guidance to reflect the continued momentum of our core business and the early performance of the Copra acquisition. We expect that our capacity utilization will remain high early in 2027 before expected new capacity starts to provide relief. Further out, we are pleased that our work on capacity additions appears on track to support a continuation of current volume trends and should allow us to operate under our preferred 85% utilization model in 2028 based on our current assumptions of growth trends and capacity timing.

To summarize, our category is very healthy. Our brands are performing well, and our team is executing at a high level. We are confident in our team's ability to finish 2026 strong and are enthusiastic about the plans we have in place for 2027. Our confidence in the category and Vita Coco brand trends remains very high. With that, I will turn the call over to Corey Baker, our Chief Financial Officer.

Corey Baker

Thanks, Martin, and good morning, everyone. I will now provide you with some additional details on the third quarter 2026 financial results and our outlook for the full year. For the quarter, net sales increased $62 million or 34% year-over-year to $244 million, driven by strong Vita Coco Coconut Water net sales growth of 15% and private label growth of 152%. Organic growth for the quarter was 18%, with Copra contributing $29 million in the Americas. We are reporting Copra's private label business in our private label category and Copra's branded and commodity business reported in our other product category.

On a segment basis, within the Americas, net sales grew 31% to $199 million, led by Vita Coco Coconut Water that grew net sales by 8% to $143 million. This was driven by a 9% volume increase and a slight net price/mix decline. Private label increased net sales 224% to $46 million, driven by a 110% increase in volume and a price/mix increase of 54%, reflecting the benefits of approximately 10 weeks of Copra volume and the benefit of Copra's premium price point.

Throughout the year, the accelerated retail growth in Europe and in the U.S. for both branded and private label SKUs tightened our available inventory. And in the U.S., reduced inventory at our distributors. This has resulted in intermittent service issues across most of our markets on some SKUs. The potential lost shipments from reduced inventory this quarter, combined with strong U.S. shipments in Q3 of last year, which built distributor inventory for the Q4 Walmart reset resulted in our U.S. Q3 Vita Coco shipment growth lagging another strong quarter of U.S. retail scan performance of 23%. We expect to see U.S. shipment growth exceed scan growth over the coming months as we rebuild system inventory and are better able to meet demand. The expectation is embedded in our updated guidance.

Our International segment net sales were up 48%, where we continue to see exceptional net sales growth across branded and private label coconut water. Vita Coco Coconut Water net sales grew 57% and private label increased 27%. For the quarter, consolidated gross profit was $93 million, an increase of $24 million versus the prior year. Gross margin finished at 38% for the quarter, broadly in line with last year. Gross margins benefited from minimal tariffs this year as compared to last year, which is mostly offset by higher domestic logistics costs and the mix impact of Copra.

Moving on to operating expenses. SG&A increased $6 million to $47 million, driven by acquisition-related costs, increased investments in personnel supporting our growth, the inclusion of Copra as well as higher sales-related expenses. Net income attributable to shareholders for the quarter was $35 million or $0.58 per diluted share compared to $24 million or $0.40 per diluted share in the prior year. The $11 million increase in net income was primarily driven by the increase in gross profit from our strong core business growth plus the benefits of Copra, partially offset by higher SG&A investment, increased income tax expenses and unrealized derivative losses this year versus gains last year.

Our effective tax rate for Q3 was 20% versus 22% last year. This brings the effective tax rate to 21% on a year-to-date basis, in line with our expectations for the year. Q3 adjusted EBITDA was $53 million or 22% of net sales, up from $32 million or 18% of net sales in Q3 2025. The increase was primarily due to the increased gross profit, partially offset by higher year-on-year SG&A expenses.

Turning to our balance sheet and cash flow. As of September 30, 2026, our balance sheet remained very strong with total cash on hand of $152 million and no debt under our revolving credit facility. Year-to-date through September, we reduced our net cash by $45 million, driven by the net investment of $139 million to acquire Copra and a return of cash to shareholders through our share repurchases of $62 million. Our underlying cash generation remained very healthy, driven by $115 million of net income and a $33 million reduction in inventory, partially offset by net working capital outflow of $4 million, reflecting a higher accounts receivable, partially offset by an increase in accounts payable.

During the quarter, we repurchased approximately $42 million of our shares under our current $105 million authorization. Since the end of the quarter, we have purchased an additional $8 million for a cumulative year-to-date purchase of $70 million, leaving us with $11 million remaining under the total $105 million authorized. As it relates to guidance, we have continued to experience exceptional category trends in our major markets and have very strong confidence in our team and our Vita Coco brand. As a result, we are raising our full year expectations for both net sales and adjusted EBITDA. We now expect net sales between $810 million and $820 million with expected gross margins for the full year of approximately 40%, delivering adjusted EBITDA of $170 million to $175 million.

Our expectations for the strong net sales growth is built on our assumptions for the U.S. category growing in the mid-20s on a percentage basis and our international business, led by the U.K. and Germany, maintaining very healthy growth rates. We now expect consolidated Vita Coco Coconut Water net sales growth of approximately low 20% with our U.S. Vita Coco net sales growing in the high teens. Due to the strong U.S. category growth, increased distribution and the inclusion of Copra, we now expect full year private label net sales growth of 110% to 120% in the U.S.

Full year gross margin expectations remain unchanged at approximately 40%. While some of the inflationary cost of good effects were visible in this quarter's results, the full impact of increases in Curls in early summer will primarily hit in Q4. As a result of our mix shift in these higher cost of goods factors, we expect gross margins in Q4 to be approximately 33%. As we indicated previously, we deferred raising prices this year until we understood the permanence of the cost increases. To return our gross margins to our targeted range, we have communicated to retailers pricing increases to take effect in Q1 of 2027. While we may experience gross margin variability in the short term due to ocean freight rates and product mix, our long-term gross margin aspirations remain unchanged in the high 30s, approaching 40%.

From an SG&A perspective, we continue to invest in our brand and supply chain in a disciplined way to support long-term growth while integrating Copra with less spend to date than expected. We expect to deliver SG&A leverage of approximately 1.5 points as a percentage of sales versus 2025. As we exit 2026, we are excited about the momentum going into 2027 of the category and our brand. We remain excited about the opportunity to grow both our branded and private label business next year.

And with that, I'd like to turn the call back to Martin for his closing remarks.

Martin Roper

Thank you, Corey. To close, I'd like to reiterate our confidence in the long-term potential of The Vita Coco Company, our ability to build a better beverage platform and the strength of our Vita Coco brand, the uniqueness of our supply chain that now includes Copra's Super Premium capabilities and the growth potential of the coconut water category. We have strong brands and a solid balance sheet and believe that we are well positioned to drive category and brand growth, both domestically and internationally. We are confident in our ability and are excited about our key initiatives to drive long-term growth.

Thank you for joining us today, and thank you for your interest in The Vita Coco Company. That concludes our third quarter 2026 prepared remarks, and we will now take your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.

分析师问答

Ethan Huntley

This is Ethan Huntley on for Bonnie. I guess my first one here is on margin and sort of your margin trajectory from here, which I know remains sort of a big area of focus. Obviously, you have some margin pressures in Q4, and there's a lot to unpack there. But could you maybe just talk about your margin trajectory beyond this year? Are there any levers you can pull beyond pricing to help offset any of these pressures? So maybe just a high-level question here on your margin profile heading into next year, recognizing your confidence in the high 30s percent range over time.

Corey Baker

Yes. Thanks, Ethan. So the current margin pressures are primarily being driven by transportation, ocean freight, domestic logistics type issues. There's some underlying inflation at the factories and in packaging, which is more permanent. And so our goal in the pricing that we have and are communicating to retailers and partners to take effect in early '27 is to cover the costs that we think are pretty permanent, but it won't fully cover like the current transportation peak that we're in. And we sort of reconciled ourselves to the belief that, one, that's a peak that will subside. And two, if it doesn't subside, we would need to take further pricing in order to meet our gross margin goals. So next year's gross margin could be a pretty wide range based on what happens to ocean freight. But in the long term, we're very comfortable taking pricing if we need to if these costs are permanent.

Ethan Huntley

Very helpful. And then maybe just a quick follow-up here on sort of your international strength. Obviously, impressive volumes. I think they're up 42% in the quarter. I know international has been an area of focus for you recently. So if you could maybe just outline some of the key drivers of the strength, how sustainable the strength is over the next couple of quarters and into next year. So maybe just sort of a high-level question here on international, the key growth drivers and the sustainability of growth into next year.

Corey Baker

Sure. Well, I think you know we've had a very nice U.K. business for quite a while now, and it's reached the point where we break it out in our 10-K. But our European team, which is based in London, has done a really nice job getting some other markets moving. I think the primary one we've called out is Germany that is moving very strongly, showing growth rates over 100%. And that's obviously pulling the total international volume along very strongly. That said, I think the U.K. growth was in the 30s on a scan basis. I hope I have that right. So it's very, very healthy. When we saw the acceleration of demand that we've referred to in the U.S. that happened earlier this year, very late last year, it also impacted our international business, and that has accelerated beyond our expectations, too.

Looking to the future, the per capita consumption rates in the U.K. are still order of magnitude, 1/3 of the U.S. In Germany, it's 1/6 of the U.S. And the U.S. is like 66% of Australia. So there's a lot of upside in the U.S. still. But in Europe, there's still a lot of upside if we can get those markets to current U.S. penetration. So that's how we think about it. We certainly expect next year for the international growth to continue on a very solid base. Obviously, it won't compound at the high -- I don't think you said but it won't compound at those rates because the base is getting bigger, but the business is very healthy, and we're very positive.

Operator

And the next question will come from Christian Junquera, Bank of America.

Christian Junquera

You have Christian on for Pete. Can you help quantify the impact of out of stocks during the quarter? And presumably, if you had more inventory available, sales would have been higher this quarter. Am I right in thinking that? And as you're rebuilding inventory using containers at spot rates, should we think about that as primarily a 4Q gross margin headwind? Or does that potentially leak into the first quarter of next year also?

Corey Baker

So very difficult to quantify completely lost sales, right, until maybe you've moved past the event and can go look at it in totality. Our supply constraints started to tighten during the quarter and were quite tight at the end of the quarter. And there's no doubt that we haven't shipped from our warehouses what our customers fully wanted in the quarter. So there's definitely deferred sales. How much of that is lost -- is open? I think the scan data was still very strong. Some signs the last couple of weeks that maybe a little bit of weakness that we would ascribe to potential inventory issues, which might be lost consumer consumption, but that's sort of been in the last couple of weeks. And currently, we're not happy with our service. It's complicated in that we have been able to get containers, but the containers have been taking longer to get to us.

There's been some port congestion, particularly in the transshipment ports in China that has delayed containers. So this has been very hard to predict. We're pretty comfortable that in the last couple of weeks, we started to see more containers being offered to us at very high rates. But the availability is significantly improving at our shipping ports, and that inventory should arrive as those containers are supplied to us sort of in the December time period. And whether that will impact Q4 and the inventory recovery in the system or Q1 is certainly debatable, and we could see either occur depending on how things flow. So very difficult to do, but certainly, our shipments and reported net revenue was a little depressed in the quarter because we weren't able to fulfill demand across branded and private label SKUs. And Q4 recovery should be good, but how good is, again, difficult to predict given exactly how those containers would flow.

Christian Junquera

And a quick follow-up. Very helpful to comment on the latest scanner data is like showing this development. And going to the scanner data, is there anything in the year ago period that we should be cognizant of like any sort of promotion that retailers you did or anything? Just if I remember correctly, the scanner data in September, October was very strong in the year ago period. And that will be it for me.

Corey Baker

Nothing particular in the scanner data this year. I think last year, you were cycling those out-of-stocks in 2024 and the addition of an MVM back into the cycle. But this year, year-on-year, it's pretty stable. There's always items moving around, but nothing that we would call out as a huge driver.

Martin Roper

And not promotional related, so not directly answering your question, but in mid-late November last year, the Walmart resets took place, and that quickly became visible in a slight jump in the scan trends. So we're going to roll that. And while we expect to roll it pretty positively, how positively, obviously, we don't have the data on to see how that rolls.

Operator

And the next question is going to come from Eric Serotta with Morgan Stanley.

Eric Serotta

A couple of follow-up questions here. One, in terms of the scanner data and your guide, it looks like both the recent growth in -- of your branded in scanner and your branded guide versus the category shows some market share losses. Could you help us unpack that? Do you think that these supply issues are impacting you guys more than competitors for some reason, maybe relating to sourcing countries? Or is this really another dynamic going on? And then on the Copra side, the sales came in a bit better than I think we and the market had expected in the quarter. I know you didn't have a ton of visibility going back to July when you announced the deal. But you mentioned Copra costs or integration is coming in better. Is the top line and your guidance for Copra top line coming in higher than expected? I think you were talking something like $80 million for the balance of the year or for the second half when you announced the deal.

Corey Baker

So Eric, there's a few things in there. Let me talk about Copra. We are just getting to kind of know the business and the shipment timing. The quarter was a bit stronger. We also -- we account for private label based on orders and inventory. So it's a bit of movement there. We had indicated approximately $40 million for the time -- the ownership time we had within the year. And I would say, overall, Copra is an element of a really strong category. And so it is -- overall, we're seeing the category remain quite strong, and Copra is benefiting for that and gaining share.

Martin Roper

But Copra is also operating at capacity. So right now, the upside is a little limited. I think we could probably sell more if we had it, but we don't and we won't probably until mid next year when our capacity additions potentially give us some ability to sell more. So I'd say we're very happy with the integration. We're very happy with the team. And yes, net revenue may be slightly ahead. But to Corey's point, some of that might be accounting and/or just timing, and it's still too early for us to significantly change expectations, which are currently constrained by capacity anyway.

Eric Serotta

And then the branded market share trends or growth that you're seeing and expecting versus the category. Any -- how is the supply issues playing into that? Can you unpack that more broadly? And do you think your supply situation is different from competitors?

Martin Roper

So I'd start off by saying the brand growth is very healthy. It might be lagging the category a little bit in the most recent data, which is certainly partially due to supply constraints. But within the category, certainly private label is performing pretty strongly. So that's taking a little bit of share from everybody. As it relates -- and I don't think that's particularly a long-term issue, but I think we mentioned that like a major retailer with having a private label, and that's why it's a short-term sort of issue when that sort of happens. And then as it relates to what we see on the shelf relative to others, I'd say that demand for the category is very healthy. I think everybody has similar issues. Everyone's issues are a little different.

Most of our competitors source from Vietnam and Thailand, which have direct shipping available. So they don't have to deal with the transshipping issues that we have coming out of the Philippines and some of our other countries that go through China or Singapore depending on the routing. So they have sort of different issues. They're still exposed to the same ocean freight peaks, et cetera. And even those countries, I think, have reported increased exports. So the demand on the shipping is probably pretty similar to what we're seeing. But again, we don't track that particularly closely. That being said, we do have some private label customers where they are sourcing from some of the business from a competitor. And as far as we can see, we are performing better than those.

Operator

And the next question is going to come from Michael Lavery with Piper Sandler.

Michael Lavery

Just wanted to come back to the capacity color that you had mentioned. And within that for next year, could you give any sense of if there's considerations we should keep in mind between private label and branded? Or is there flexibility between the 2? How does the capacity trickle down just kind of in those buckets?

Martin Roper

I think you're asking about how do we think about supplying brand and private label and prioritization. I think that's what you're asking. One, we have great private label relationships, and we ask them for projections and then we commit to trying to meet those projections, right? Similarly, on our brand team, we ask them for projections, and we try to meet those projections. I think it's fair to say that our brand team is a little more optimistic in their projections than maybe our private label customers are in theirs. So that creates a little bit of a challenge when it comes to fulfilling if the demand remains very strong. The demand has been very strong. We have exceeded our commitments to our private label customers this year, and we've allocated inventory, we think, very fairly. These are long-term relationships. We view it as long-term important to us to maintain them in the business. And I think we've talked about this that we try to invest in the category and grow the category and benefit from our share of the brand and then our share in private label.

So what we ask is for good forecast and then we commit to do everything we can to try and meet those. And if demand exceeds those, there's certainly some allocation, but we try to be it fairly. Some of it's difficult, like not all of our factories produce all SKUs. Maybe we haven't ordered enough packaging material for that private label customer. So there are other factors that go into this. But what we really need is great forecast and then we commit to trying to deliver them. And I think we've done a really good job of doing that.

Michael Lavery

And just on the innovation for next year, the sports drinks flavors. Can you just elaborate on some of the consumer insights or research there? And maybe what some of your incrementality expectations are for that?

Michael Kirban

Yes. I think we've been talking about 1.5 years now about leaning harder into sports hydration. From a communication standpoint, we've been doing that, and it's been working really well. I think quite a bit of the demand increases that we've seen are related to that communication, related to bringing in consumers for that occasion. And so as we think about that, we still see that one of the barriers to adoption in the category is taste or perception of taste. So we've done a lot of work on this, and we think as we continue to communicate that coconut water has 3.5x the electrolytes of the sport drink and comes from nature and it comes from a tree, adding flavors that are more recognizable, especially to young consumers who drink sport drinks whether they be blue, green or red, we think is going to give us the ability to bring in more young consumers whose families are looking for healthier hydration.

Operator

And the next question will come from Eric Des Lauriers with Craig-Hallum.

Eric Des Lauriers

My first one here is actually a bit of a follow-up on that last question. So younger consumers seem to be an increasingly significant portion of your demand growth. I think treats were an initial attempt to appeal to younger consumers. We obviously have another Treats product announced here by Coco Kids and obviously, the sports-inspired flavors that you just mentioned. Can you just kind of talk about your positioning with the younger demographic compared to competitors? What you're seeing from that demographic and how much we should be looking at these new products broadly as sort of incremental opportunities versus perhaps some cannibalization risk? Just want to get a better sense of kind of how you're viewing that younger demographic.

Martin Roper

Yes. I mean when you think about it, it's pretty impressive. 20-something-year-old brand that continues to age down has been, I think, something that's helped us a lot. We've been really successful with it. We continue to be. So I think this is another -- and Treats has really worked from that perspective. I mean we brought in quite a few new consumers to the brand that have never drink the brand before. And that's worked really well. And we think part of not only driving treat, but driving the success of the brand and of the category in general. We think this can do the same. We've talked about our partnerships in youth soccer and youth sports and going deeper into that to go deeper into that with not only the messaging around 3.5x the electrolytes of a sport drink, but now flavors that are more recognizable to these consumers, these young consumers, we think will add a lot of benefit and bring in a lot of new consumption, new consumers, new households.

Eric Des Lauriers

And then my other question, so you've discussed some of your supply chain investments that you expect these investments that you're making now to be able to maintain volume growth. Obviously, it's been quite robust. So certainly very encouraging to hear. Just curious if any of these investments or plans that you're making can also potentially address any of the supply chain disruption risks that we've seen here and there over the last several years. Maybe just help shed some light on what, if anything else is going on at the supply chain level beyond capacity increases.

Michael Kirban

Sure. Well, we're always endeavoring to diversify our supplier base, both for geographic reasons that could deal with them vertical or environmental factors I think we sort of indicated that the Philippines is our largest supply country. Brazil is second and Brazil and the Philippines supply the majority of our product, but we have reasonable share elsewhere. And so when we're looking for new partnerships, we're always balancing those issues. Unfortunately, everywhere we source coconuts from requires ocean freight. So we haven't yet been able to create a meaningful way to sort of dilute our reliance on that beyond some of our sort of more mixed products do use concentrate, and we are able to produce them a little more locally. But that currently is -- it's not insignificant in our product portfolio. But since most of our product portfolio is Coco blue, it's not a significant effect, but we have made progress in that area to try and derisk those things.

Operator

And the next question will come from Jim Salera with Stephens.

James Salera

Martin, I wanted to expand on something you just said in answer to that last question. If I look at your deck, it looks like the new sports-inspired flavors are from concentrate. And so I wonder if we see success there, which I anticipate given the consumer engagement with that occasion, is that much easier to scale than the traditional not from concentrate blue bottle product?

Martin Roper

That's part of -- sorry, I'm just going to -- just on that -- sorry about that. On that topic, that's part of the objective, right? So sport is from concentrate, so are quite a few of the flavors now. So that gives us not only the ability to potentially scale, but also the ability to potentially produce in different places, produce in country. And so that is clearly a benefit of the formulation.

Michael Kirban

And I would say that producing from concentrate gives us some flexibility, particularly to avoid ocean freight. But if these products do scale, we might still choose to produce them in the tropics because the production cost of doing so, if ocean freight is at normal historical levels remains very attractive, and we can fill out capacity that our suppliers have put in with Tetra lines, et cetera, to do it. So I think the benefit of being from concentrate, particularly on new items is it allows us to produce much closer to the market and respond to demand quicker on the innovation side. And then -- and -- but the economics long term could be much better if ocean freight returns to historical levels by producing in the tropics. So it's not -- it's very dependent on where ocean freight.

James Salera

If you're able to give any context, is the initial run of the sports-inspired flavor going to be produced domestically or near domestically? And can you give us a sense for the margin of that product relative to the core lineup?

Corey Baker

So most of our innovation that uses concentrate, we try to produce on sort of in locations that don't involve ocean freight, but maybe not domestic, but maybe across the border. And margins on that tend to be lower than our long-term goals, like you'd expect in innovation, right? But in the innovation, when we look at it, we try to design innovation so that if the volume comes, it meets our long-term goals.

James Salera

And if you don't mind, if I might sneak just one other quick one on capacity. I just want to make sure, as we think about the front half of next year, seeming like it to be a little bit more capacity constrained. Is the right way to think about that, the sort of the upper bound of sales in any given quarter is sort of where the 3Q number came in, in that kind of $240 million, $250 million range? Or is it just we have like a trickle of capacity in the first half and in the back half of the year, we have a wider capacity coming online?

Corey Baker

So I think what we've indicated is the capacity that we have, we think, supports continuation of current volume trends through next year. Certainly, the first half of next year, we expect to be pretty tight. And there are capacity additions coming on mid and next year that help us in the back half and give us sort of further upside and frankly, prepare us for a continuation of those trends in '28. Planning capacity, we're having to make these decisions 12, 18, 24 months out. So the capacity we have today was cooled for 18 months ago when we were thinking that growth rates were in the mid-teens. That's obviously not what we're experiencing. So that's why we're tight. But we see a light at the end of the tunnel, but we certainly have some constraints in the first half of next year as to what the max could be and those constraints sort of fall away a little bit certainly by Q4 of next year.

And our business has seasonality. So the Q1 is typically not a particularly large season -- and I'm not sure we could hit record numbers in any way because that's not how we sort of plan for it, and we want inventory for Q2 when there's a lot of summer promotional stuff. So Q2 would probably be the max next year before the capacity comes in.

Michael Kirban

If I could just add, I think Martin mentioned in the prepared remarks that we have the supply to meet the current demand, and we're building inventory, but it happens to be more on the water and in the production countries. It's getting the product here fast enough that has been the challenge as of late. And I think that's just important to recognize is that we have the product to meet the demand, but just getting it in country has been a challenge as of late.

Operator

And our next question comes from Rupesh Parikh with Oppenheimer.

Rupesh Parikh

So as we look towards FY '27, just curious if you have any early reads on distribution opportunities. And then earlier in the prepared comments, you discussed a number of some of your innovation plans for next year. So just curious whether you expect the innovation for FY '27 to maybe be more impactful versus what you saw in FY '26.

Martin Roper

So on the innovation question, I think you can see from the investor deck where our ACV is. And I think we expect to make some progress next year. Obviously, we don't know -- we haven't been communicated set changes yet for the April, May sort of time period. We are expecting Walmart to update their set in the next 4 weeks. Certainly, our expectations based on the success of what they did last year is to sort of improve the set. What that exactly means we're not in a position to talk about right now, but that's sort of the thing in the short term. And then the sets for next spring, obviously, no one is really talking about.

We are presenting the innovation. We are presenting our strategic initiatives. We are -- they've been well received. Obviously, the category is on fire. Our U.K. team refers to it as stocking. Our German team has its -- but in that environment, the retailers are likely to give us more space, maybe bring in multipacks and that sort of thing. So we're hopeful. But until it happens, we're not really in a position to confirm and/or -- and we don't really know, obviously, because sometimes retailers say they do something and then unfortunately, they forget the conversation, which is understandable, they're busy people.

But yes, we don't have anything to share other than we feel optimistic, and we think it's in a good place and that the innovation discussions that we've talked about and you'll see in the deck, there's a major mass retailer taking one of them this quarter, which is ahead of schedule. So a call out to our supply team for being ahead of schedule. And our hope is that some of the innovations retailers will dive in on and give us early jump calls to create a differentiation in the category for them. And so you never know, and those calls tend to happen late.

Rupesh Parikh

And then my follow-up question, just on the Copra acquisition. So strong start so far. So just curious in the couple of months you've go into, any surprises, positive or negative in terms of what you're seeing there?

Martin Roper

I'd say we've been pleasantly surprised. A couple of things. One, it's our first major acquisition. Two, we've been very pleased with how our team has leaned in and welcomed the Copra team and dealt with the acquisition, particular call out to the accounting finance team for completing the close process on time and allowing us to do this on the planned date. And then as it relates to the acquisition, I think we've been pleased that what we now own is what we thought we were buying, which is a very high-quality Nam Hom premium production capability with strong retailer relationships and a lot of potential. As I mentioned in our prepared remarks, I was in Thailand just about 2 weeks ago, I had the opportunity to meet. The team is fantastic, and they're excited to be part of the largest coconut water branded business in the world and to form one great coconut water selling team. So, so far, so good. But obviously, the proof will be in the numbers as we deliver them hopefully, over the next 12 months.

Operator

And the next question is going to come from Jon Andersen with William Blair.

Jon Andersen

I guess the demand side here has been covered well with the questions so far. So a couple on cost and margins. You mentioned that you're going to be taking price in the first quarter, and that's focused on recouping structural cost increases. Could you talk about what some of the structural or the cost increases you perceive that was structural versus those you see as temporary? And then just a follow-up to that, SG&A, you see more leverage now than you did a quarter ago for 2026. And yet, I would think like costs are going up there, too, like logistics, outbound freight. So what is giving you the stronger leverage? Is it just kind of more top line? Or are there some other things happening within that line?

Martin Roper

Sure. On the cost side, obviously, there's a range from permanent to temporary and it's a little gray. So just working along the range, underlying packaging cost increases certainly are at the much more permanent end of the range, some inflationary factors at factories, including minimum wage type rules and other things are on the more permanent end of the range. And then as you move up, you get to some domestic transportation costs, which may be permanent, maybe temporary. Some of that's fuel, some of its availability of drivers. related to what's going on in the U.S., those sorts of things. Port charges are probably a little bit more permanent if those increase. And then you get to ocean freight, which is perhaps the biggest variable. And there, talking about what's permanent and what's temporary is really hard to do. If you'd asked me 18 months ago, I'd have said that the boats going around South Africa would now be back through the Suez. So 12 months later, what I thought was temporary is sort of still temporary.

And so that's really hard to predict. Our pricing is certainly designed to cover a fair number of the costs that we think we're going to have to bear next year, but not all the costs that we're currently bearing today as we certainly think ocean freight should recede from its current sort of peak issues. Obviously, that could be wrong, and we're reserving the right to take more pricing next year if we need to. I'd say our pricing is fair. The conversations have been good. We currently think we are going to be able to take it. So we aren't running into some of the problems that some other CPG companies have run in because we're not at that level. But if ocean freight stayed high, we might need to revisit that sometime next year.

Corey Baker

And then Jon, maybe to take the SG&A. So First, just the definition, our outbound logistics, warehouse, et cetera, are all in gross margin. So that can vary by company. And then from a leverage perspective, we are seeing better top line. The other bigger item that's delivering the leverage is coming out of last quarter, when we did Copra, we were conservative on the SG&A that we might need to accomplish the integration, and that is coming in at a lower cost and more smoothly than we prepared in the previous guidance. So that combination is delivering the leverage while we continue to invest in additional headcount to support the growth and marketing. So it's really a function of the additional growth and then a fairly smooth integration of Copra.

Operator

And the next question is going to come from Gerald Pascarelli with Needham & Company.

Gerald Pascarelli

I just have one. I wanted to follow up on gross margin and specifically the 4Q gross margin outlook of 33%. I understand it reflects rising costs, but 4Q is almost always your lowest margin quarter. I assume there's a seasonality component there. And in this instance, you're also going to have negative mix shift from triple-digit private label sales. I think year-over-year, your gross margin is expected to be down about 200 basis points. So just -- I guess, given all of the moving parts, is there a way for you to unpack how much of this impact is specifically due to rising cost of goods? I guess I'm trying to get a baseline on what the margin impact would be if the costs remain elevated, excluding any mitigating like pricing factors. So any color there would be great.

Corey Baker

Let me -- I understand your question. I think the cost -- to your point, Q4 is always structurally lower. We are -- have quite a few moving pieces in the quarter as with the current supply of which products come in and what our mix looks like. Pricing is such a major driver of the underlying gross margin. Once that price starts to roll in, in Q4, it becomes a very different equation. Sorry, Q1. Q1, sorry. As the price rolls in Q1, that becomes a very different equation. Today, there are mix impacts, the seasonality -- but the bigger driver is that cost increase against last year, we had tariffs, right? So there's a little bit of price change from the prior year, the inflation and then some mix factors. So it's hard to -- we're not giving '27 guidance to trend that out because pricing is such an important factor.

Martin Roper

And sort of just building on what Corey said, I would say that most of the gross margin impact that you're seeing and we've indicated in Q4 relates to the ocean freight increases that started to take -- be visible sort of in, I don't know, July maybe and then continue to grow into August. Given how ocean freight flows, that flows through into the P&L 3 to 4 months later. And there are no -- we're not taking pricing on that until next year. And so that's the biggest driver of the depression. View those as temporary, but obviously, we've been wrong before on those, but that's how we think about them.

Operator

And the next question comes from Chris Carey with Wells Fargo.

Christopher Carey

I wanted to ask about the Americas branded delivery versus the consumption data. I realize it was asked earlier, I slightly missed it. But the supply issues that you saw in Q3, just confirm, are you expecting those to come back in Q4 such that you should be shipping ahead of your Americas Vita Coco branded consumption in calendar Q4? And then, Martin, you made a statement or a comment that you should be able to maintain current volume levels into next year. Does that imply you don't expect much growth into the front half of the year? Or you're just saying we have an ability to continue to meet demand?

Martin Roper

Volume trend.

Christopher Carey

Yes, volume trend. I understand. Okay. So anyway, this is those 2 things, and I have a follow-up.

Corey Baker

Chris, I can try because to your point, the Q3 branded growth in the U.S. and the year-to-date really is lagging the consumption data. There is a bit of inventory move, but we do expect to ship ahead of scans in Q4. I think Martin referenced it. The degree to which we do that is dependent on supply and timing. But we do recognize that scans remain quite healthy. The category remains quite healthy. So that will start to appear in Q4 shipments, but it's hard to quantify the exact amount until we kind of get there.

Martin Roper

And then relative to sort of capacity and ability to support demand, we have the committed capacity for next year to support growth equivalent to this year's volume growth on this year's volume, right? So that's a compounded acceleration. And so we feel good about that. In the first 6 months, that capacity is just sufficient to do that, and we're running at 95% utilization. But as a result of some decisions that we made back in January, February this year, there's more capacity coming on in the back half of next year that will alleviate those constraints and put us in good shape for '28 for a continuation of these trends. And so it's growth trends. And so in absolute volume, we're able to support growth next year.

How that actually works, obviously, is a little bit of a function of how the whole supply chain flows, particularly on the ocean freight side. And as we've sort of talked about, there have been some sort of delays sort of in the last 8, 12 weeks in that area that seem to us to be being driven by demand out of Asia into the U.S. and prioritization of the transshipment ports for how that flows. But it looks like that's starting to ease. Now if that eases, we're in great shape. If it stays tight, we're in tight shape. And so that's how we think about it, and that's somewhat of an uncontrollable, but we are very comfortable we have the production.

Christopher Carey

And the -- from a market share perspective, are your competitors seeing the same supply constraints? I realize you kind of said it's tough to say how the competitive dynamic goes with just less ability to supply at the levels that you would like. So just maybe give me a sense of near term, are you see -- are you at risk of losing any shelf to competitors? Is this going to be a dynamic going into the front half of the year? Or is the ability to catch up in Q4 going to overwhelm some of that relative dynamic to the peer set?

Martin Roper

Given everyone has sort of the same sort of supply chain issues that we think everyone is experiencing the same sort of things. Now again, I said in an earlier answer that it's a little different for someone who sources directly from one country in Vietnam or Thailand reliance on one route, maybe both of those countries have direct routes to the U.S. We, on our product out of the Philippines are transshipping in China or Singapore, for instance. So we have a slightly more complicated structure, and there are different effects. There are actually also different effects in country. So when China demand on coconut goes crazy, they come down into Thailand and then into Vietnam, and that affects those suppliers but it doesn't affect the Philippines supply so much. So everyone's supply chain is a little bit sort of different. I think that talks to the diversification that we have, that we can sort of weather these issues, but we are sort of somewhat overexposed to product from the Philippines and Brazil.

And if there are issues in those supply chains, then perhaps we are overexposed relative to our competitors. I think what I said earlier is on the shelf, it's really hard to tell. The category is doing really well. You go in a store on Sunday and it's out of inventory and you wish we have more shelf space for inventory carrying over the weekend, right? So that's a conversation we have with the retailers. And so it's hard to tell exactly who's having different issues, but we do have some anecdotal data from our private label relationships where we've been asked to cover for other supplier shortfalls and/or offered product opportunity in those regions that we don't serve to cover. And so we do know that other people are having similar issues.

As it relates to retailer decisions, I think retailers are concerned rightly because we aren't meeting the full demand, which frankly, was way greater than anyone forecasted. But we're having great conversations with them. And I think our relationships are good. But obviously, we need to solve those issues, which is why we're increasing the investments in our supply chain teams to add capacity for '28 and '29 and beyond. And we're telling the retailers that this is a multiyear process, and we're out ahead of it, and we have the best people in the business doing.

Christopher Carey

One final one, Copra. This is giving you new capacity in a very premium price point. Can this be not a greater lever because I'm sure you have all sorts of different scenario planning for next year. But can you lean on the Copra capacity more going into next year, the price mix, premiumization of that capacity and maybe push a bit harder and quicker on a branded offering there? That's it for me.

Martin Roper

So I think as we sort of said, Copra is currently capacity constrained, and we are prioritizing existing relationships. It was -- has a nice brand, but has a very significant private label business, some with customers that we have relationships with, some with new customers. And we're being very clear that we're going to prioritize that supply and we're frankly going to invest in expanding capacity to support it. When that capacity comes on board, which will be mid late next year, we'll be in a better position to invest in the brand. So what we're doing right now on the brand is testing what works, what doesn't work. We've got a couple of markets where we're doing that, trying to learn, trying to understand what the actual demand here could be if we get it right and how to get it right.

And then when the capacity comes online, sort of late next year for the brand by the time it reaches the country, we'll be in a position to invest it. So I think the way to think about Copra is its upside for next year is a little constrained by capacity, but it will continue to be primarily a private label business because we're going to meet those commitments because we want these relationships long term. And then as you start to think about '28 and '29, we will try to build a super-premium Nam Hom cold chain product to basically have a branded share in that segment, which is growing in line or faster than the category is at attractive price points and is sort of the flagship within the coconut water.

Operator

And I show no further questions in the queue. I will now turn the call back to Martin Roper for closing remarks.

Martin Roper

Great. Well, I really appreciate everyone joining us for the quarter, and we're going to go back to finding coconut water and getting it in the country to service the unbelievable demand that we're having, and we look forward to talking to you next quarter. Thank you.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.