金德摩根 (KMI) 2026财年第三季度业绩电话会：积压订单达144亿美元

核心要点

• Kinder Morgan公布2026年第三季度归属于KMI的净利润为7.64亿美元，同比增长22%；调整后EBITDA增长9%，达到21.8亿美元。
• 调整后每股收益（EPS）增长21%至0.35美元。管理层表示，第三季度每股收益和调整后EBITDA分别比公司内部预算高出15%和6%。
• 在新增54亿美元项目并投产7亿美元项目后，项目储备达144亿美元。该储备项目的预估投资倍数为5.7倍。
• 在KMI的新增项目中，Southeast Connector和Permian Link约占47亿美元。这两项工程均获得与高信用托运商签订的至少20年期“照付不议”合同支持。
• 管理层预计全年调整后EBITDA将超出预算6%以上，调整后每股收益将超出预算13%以上。预计年底杠杆率为3.6倍，好于预算的3.8倍。
• KMI宣布派发每股0.2975美元的季度股息，折合年化股息1.19美元，较2025年增长2%。

核心财务数据

业务与运营表现

天然气仍是主要增长引擎。受田纳西天然气管道（Tennessee Gas Pipeline）更强劲的LNG原料气输送量以及KMI州内系统增量需求的支撑，运输量较2025年第三季度增长3%。在Haynesville页岩区KinderHawk系统增长40%的带动下，集输量增长了14%。

KMI批准了两项重大合资项目。Southeast Connector旨在向东南部输送约26亿立方英尺/日的天然气，若有更多客户签约，输送能力可扩大至35亿立方英尺/日。Permian Link将提供28亿立方英尺/日的输送能力，并由一家信用评级为A级的超大规模企业作为主力客户支持。管理层表示，这两项工程预计将在2030年至2032年期间投入运营。

在成品油管道业务中，成品油输送量下降3%，原油和凝析油输送量下降11%。有利的大宗商品价格和较高的丁烷调和量部分抵消了吞吐量下降的影响。此外，KMI还将3亿美元的Western Gateway投资项目纳入储备，预计将于2029年投入运营。

码头液体租赁产能保持在接近93%的水平，而休斯敦航道（Houston Ship Channel）和新泽西州卡特雷特（Carteret）枢纽的可用储罐利用率略低于96%。休斯敦航道的出口量达到创纪录的427,000桶/日，同比增长39%。在假设很可能行使续租期权的情况下，其油轮船队在2026年剩余时间内已100%出租，2027年出租率为97%，2028年为80%。

二氧化碳（CO2）部门的原油净产量增长了8%，其中SACROC项目的产量增长了11%。液化天然气（NGL）产量增长9%，而二氧化碳（CO2）运量下降3%。随着运行时间和烃类回收率的提高，可再生天然气（RNG）产量增长了18%。

管理层业绩指引

管理层预计2026全年调整后EBITDA将超出预算6%以上，调整后每股收益将超出预算13%以上。相较于公司计划，EBITDA的超预期表现相当于增加了5.15亿美元以上。

KMI预计年底净债务与调整后EBITDA之比约为3.6倍，好于预算的3.8倍。公司表示，每年约有30亿美元的现金流可用于支持扩张性资本支出。

管理层指出，未来几年每年的资本支出可能保持在约40亿美元左右。管理层强调，由于144亿美元的项目储备在投产日期上存在交错分布，项目驱动的增长在各年份间的分布不会十分均匀。

公司未就2027年给出正式的前瞻性指引。管理层提醒称，2026年的业绩得益于若干可能不可重现的因素，而长期增长预计将由持续投产至2032年的项目所支撑。

风险与关注焦点

2026年超预期的业绩中，约有2.25亿美元来自可能不可重现的因素，包括冬季风暴Fern及持续寒冷天气、码头合同买断、有利的美国联邦能源管理委员会（FERC）费率结算调整，以及异常有利的Waha至休斯敦航道价差。此外，相比于预算，有利的大宗商品价格贡献了另外1.75亿美元。

管理层表示，2027年的业绩可能难以与2026年进行直接对比，因为上述收益可能不会重现，且Trident签约EBITDA中仅有约30%预计将在2027年开始生效。此外，天气和大宗商品价格依然存在不确定性。

大型项目仍取决于最终的客户承诺、信用支持、许可取得、施工进度以及成本控制。管理层注意到钢铁、大口径管道和压缩设备的成本有所上涨，但尚未看到客户对随之调高费率表现出明显抵触。

临时的《琼斯法案》（Jones Act）豁免给码头业务带来了一定不确定性。尽管如此，KMI表示其油轮船队的签约率依然维持在高水平。

分析师问答要点

管理层估计TGP 219 South的初期棕地扩建规模约为15亿美元。无约束力的公开招标吸引了每日超过20亿立方英尺的意向，但如果打造20亿至30亿立方英尺/日规模的项目，将需要更高的资本支出。最终规模和分期建设计划将取决于托运商的正式签约承诺。

KMI表示，Southeast Connector已拥有足够的正式签约承诺以推进项目。参与具约束力公开招标的新增客户可能会使项目能力从约26亿立方英尺/日提升至最高35亿立方英尺/日。

管理层表示，即使在增加了54亿美元的项目储备之后，潜在机会管线依然相当充沛。这些新项目可能会在KMI网络的其他区域引发瓶颈，从而创造出进一步的扩建机会。

针对Permian Link项目，管理层强调该项目是由需求驱动的，且有长期主力合同支持。新增的托运商以及基于增压能力的扩建可能会提升利用率和项目回报率。KMI还指出，其在德克萨斯州约6,000英里的州内管道和1,450亿立方英尺的储气能力是灵活性和可靠性的重要保障。

KMI表示，公司有信心在现有许可框架下完成Southeast Connector项目。管理层也对拟议的联邦许可法案表示支持，但并未将项目完成寄托在该法案通过与否上。

公司预计Southeast Connector和Permian Link的资金来源将结合合资企业的现金流、债务融资以及所有者的股权出资。KMI表示，在必要时其拥有足够的资产负债表空间来直接提供资金支持，同时力求维持现有的合资企业信用评级。

业绩电话会议完整文字实录

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完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Good afternoon, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Kinder Morgan's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Mr. Rich Kinder, Executive Chairman of Kinder Morgan.

Richard Kinder

Thank you, Michelle. Before we begin, as usual, I'd like to remind you that KMI's earnings release today and this call include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934 as well as certain non-GAAP financial measures. Before making any investment decisions, we strongly encourage you to read our full disclosures on forward-looking statements and use of non-GAAP financial measures set forth at the end of our earnings release as well as review our latest filings with the SEC for important material assumptions, expectations and risk factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated and described in such forward-looking statements.

Let me begin by sharing some projections from credible third parties that once again support our belief that the demand for natural gas is destined to dramatically increase both in America and the rest of the world in the coming years and even decades. Shell projects that global LNG demand will grow to nearly 750 million tons per year by 2050 and that's an increase of 65% from 2025. That's an enormous increase and 1 that we believe will especially benefit the U.S. given the preference of international customers for sourcing their supply here. On the domestic front, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation is predicting that peak demand for electricity in this country will grow by between 225 and 245 gigawatts by 2035. And obviously, much of that astounding growth will be met by natural gas generation. These 2 estimates just reinforce and strengthen what we believe is a bullish natural gas story.

Now let me turn to our own story at Kinder Morgan. The third quarter was another good quarter for us with results exceeding both the comparable period in 2025 and our budget for this year. Perhaps more importantly, we made substantial additions to our backlog of new projects. Our additions constitute 1 of the largest increases in any 1 quarter in our corporate history, and our backlog of U.S. natural gas projects now stands at an all-time record. And I would add that we expect these new projects to lead to even more expansion opportunities over the coming months and years. In a broader sense, I believe the existing new projects we announced demonstrate the strength that comes from a large national midstream footprint. That footprint, which we are constantly expanding and extending allows us to offer more diversified connectivity to our customers as they seek alternative and expanded sources of supply.

To put the size and utilization of our natural gas network in perspective, I remind you that we deliver about 40% of all the natural gas in America, including approximately 40% of all LNG feed gas and over 50% of gas exports to Mexico. Our network connects almost every producing basin with the great majority of demand locations throughout the country. I'm highly confident that our assets will allow us to continue to serve the multifaceted needs of our customers, and at the same time, deliver real and sustainable value to our shareholders. As I've said before, but it certainly deserves repeating, our strategy is not complicated. We have assets that generate large amounts of recurring cash flow.

We are in a business that is in need of substantial additional infrastructure. Because of the size and reach of our system, we're in a unique position to capture a substantial portion of that need by developing projects supported by long-term take-or-pay agreements with creditworthy entities. And our strong cash flow allows us to build that infrastructure by using primarily our own cash without undue leverage. We are able to earn good returns from these investments thus increasing our EBITDA and EPS in the years ahead. For me it's hard to think of a better strategy that combines consistent growth with minimal risk. And now let me turn it over to Kim.

Kimberly Dang

Okay. Thanks, Rich. This was another outstanding quarter for Kinder Morgan. Adjusted EPS increased by 21%, adjusted EBITDA grew by 9%, and every 1 of our business segments contributed to that growth. Those results reflect both the strength of our assets and the outstanding execution of our employees. For the full year, we expect adjusted EPS growth to exceed budget by more than 13% and EBITDA to exceed budget by more than 6%. Our financial position continues to strengthen as well. We ended the quarter at approximately 3.5x debt-to-EBITDA, the low end of our targeted range, Combined with our roughly $3 billion of annual cash flow available to fund expansion CapEx we have significant flexibility to fund our organic growth while maintaining a strong balance sheet. That flexibility is important because our project backlog increased from [indiscernible] this quarter.

We added $5.4 billion in new projects and placed $700 million of projects into service. The backlog multiple remains very attractive at 5.7x. In the $5.4 billion of additions are 2 highly strategic joint venture projects, SNG's Southeast Connector and NGPL's Permian Link. Together, Kinder Morgan's share of these projects is approximately $4.7 billion. Both projects are supported by at least 20-year take-or-pay contracts with creditworthy shippers, providing the type of long-term stable cash flow we seek to create. Importantly, Southeast Connector is contracted with strong investment-grade utilities while Permian Link is contracted with an A-rated hyperscaler. These projects also highlight the quality of opportunities we see in front of us.

Southeast Connector is a transformational project that connects diverse supply with 1 of the fastest-growing natural gas demand regions in the country. Large load interconnection request across the Southeast now exceed 200 gigawatts, which could represent roughly 8 Bcf a day of natural gas demand, if it all came to fruition and tied it was all served by gas fire generation. Southeast Connector is designed to meet that need by delivering approximately 2.6 Bcf a day of natural gas into the region. In addition, we expect this project like many of our other large projects to drive future expansion opportunities. Permian captures a similar compelling opportunity by moving abundant low-cost Permian natural gas north to meet growing power demand in the Texas Panhandle.

Together these projects demonstrate how our network is uniquely positioned to connect growing supply basins with growing demand centers. More broadly, as Rich mentioned, the long-term outlook for natural gas remains exceptionally strong. Wood Mackenzie projects North American natural gas demand to increase by approximately 46 Bcf a day by 2035, driven primarily by LNG exports and power generation demand. Projects of this size and quality do not happen by accident. The commercial creativity, customer relationships project management and legal expertise and the patience and perseverance required to bring these opportunities together are remarkable, And I could not be more proud of what our team has accomplished.

Finally, these projects extend our visible growth runway. Before this quarter, most of our EBITDA from our backlog was expected to be online by the end of 2029. With Permian Link and Southeast Connector entering service between 2030 and 2032 we have meaningfully extended the period of high-quality cash flow growth supported by approved projects with long-term take-or-pay contracts. Simply put, we are delivering strong results today while continuing to build a longer runway for high-quality future growth.

And with that, I'll turn it over to Dax to give you details on our business performance.

Dax Sanders

Thanks, Kim. Starting with the natural gas business unit, transport volumes were up 3% in the quarter versus the third quarter of 2025. We incremental demand was primarily a result of increased LNG feed gas deliveries on Tennessee Gas Pipeline and incremental demand on our intrastate system. Natural gas gathering volumes were up 14% in the quarter from the third quarter of 2025 with most all the increase coming from our KinderHawk system in the Haynesville, which was up 40%. As we've continued to say, demand for gas on our pipes remains high and our system remains highly utilized. While we announced the sanctioning of 2 very important projects today, looking forward and consistent with Ken's comments, we continue to see significant incremental project opportunities across our natural gas pipeline network driven primarily by power and LNG, and we will continue to pursue them aggressively. .

In our products pipeline segment, refined products volumes were down 3% in the quarter compared to the third quarter of 2025 and crude condensate volumes were down 11%. More than half the decline in crude volumes is explained by the removal of H from service for the NGL conversion early in the third quarter of 2025 with the remaining decrease resulting from fewer well connects at Highland crude. As previously announced, we, along with our partners, we're proud to reach a final investment decision on our Western Gateway project during the third quarter. The project which will fundamentally change the way clean products are delivered to the Desert Southwest and Southern California will ensure the availability of these products to consumers for decades to come. Kinder Morgan's $300 million total cash investment, which includes our $250 million contribution to the JV and a $50 million investment in our non-contributed assets has been added to our project backlog and is expected to reach in-service in 2029.

In our Terminals business segment, our liquids lease capacity remained high at almost 93%, and Market conditions continue to remain supportive of strong rates and the utilization of tanks available for use is just under 96% at our key hubs on the Houston Ship Channel and in Carteret, New Jersey. While the temporary Jones Act waiver has added some market uncertainty, our tanker fleet remains exceptionally well contracted. Assuming likely options are exercised, our fleet is 100% leased to the rest of this year, 97% leased through 2027 and 80% leased through 2028. We have opportunistically chartered a significant percentage of the fleet at higher market rates and have an average length of firm contract commitments of almost 3 years. The worldwide shortage in refined product supplies and the associated price dislocations have both been significant positives for our export terminals in the Houston Ship Channel Hub.

In Q3, we saw 427,000 barrels a day move across our 11 docks, which represented an increase of 39% over Q3 2025 and an all-time record. The CO2 segment saw 8% higher net oil production volumes compared to Q3 2025 which was led by an 11% increase in production at SACROC. NGL volumes were 9% higher and CO2 volumes were 3% lower. Finally, RNG volumes increased 18% as the significantly improved operations that are driving both greater uptime and hydrocarbon recovery at our facilities continued in the third quarter.

And with that, I'll turn it over to David.

David Michels

Okay. Thank you, Dax. We're declaring a quarterly dividend of $0.2975 per share, which is $1.19 per share annualized and an increase of 2% over 2025. We delivered a record-setting quarter once again with net income attributable to KMI and adjusted EBITDA reaching record levels for the third quarter. Our third quarter performance was also ahead of internal expectations with EPS 15% above budget and adjusted EBITDA 6% above our budget and as follows the first half of the year during which we achieved similar outperformance.

Turning to the quarterly financial performance. We had another very strong quarter. For the third quarter, we generated net income attributable to KMI of $764 million and EPS of $0.34. Those are 22% and 21% higher than the third quarter of 2025, respectively. Adjusted EPS was $0.35, so that's 21% up from last year. Adjusted EBITDA grew by 9% to $2.18 billion for the quarter. Importantly, as Kim mentioned, the strength was broad-based with all 4 business segments delivering higher adjusted earnings year-over-year. Natural gas saw greater contributions from EPG, KinderHawk, TGP and ex Intrastate System. This performance was driven by greater volume and rates on capacity sales, parking loan contributions expansion project contributions and greater gathered volumes.

Our Products segment benefited from favorable commodity pricing as well as greater butane blending volumes, partially offset by lower crude and refined product volumes. Our Terminals segment benefited from expansion projects placed into service, higher commodity prices, stronger coal and petroleum coke handling activity and higher Jones Act tanker rates. And our CO2 segment benefited from higher commodity prices, strong volume growth, particularly at SACROC, which was up 11% from last year. Stepping back from the quarter, our year-to-date results have been exceptionally strong. Year-to-date versus 2025, EBITDA has grown 13% and adjusted EPS is up 32%. As Kim mentioned, we now expect our full year adjusted EBITDA to be more than 6% above our budget and adjusted EPS to be more than 13% above our budget. That represents well more than $515 million of additional EBITDA.

As we've previously noted, during 2026, we benefited from a handful of large items that may not be recurring. Winter storm Fern and extended cold weather in the Northeast, a terminals contract buyout, a favorable FERC rate true-up and unusually favorable Waha to Houston Ship Channel spread Collectively, these items contribute approximately $225 million to our outperformance in 2026. In addition, favorable commodity prices have contributed an additional $175 million versus our budget. If you recall, our budgeted WTI price was $60 per barrel. At the same time, tightness continues across our U.S. infrastructure and that provides opportunities for us to capture additional margin when disruptions occur. We expect those conditions will persist.

Moving to the balance sheet. Our net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio ended the quarter at 3.5x, which is down from 3.8x at the beginning of the year. Despite spending more this year due to our Monument acquisition and greater than budgeted CapEx, we expect to end the year at 3.6x leverage, and that's an improvement from the budget of 3.8x driven by the EBITDA outperformance and that puts us well below the midpoint of our leverage target range. Year-to-date, net debt increased $513 million and here's a reconciliation of that. We generated $5.04 billion of cash flow from operations. We spent $1.98 billion in dividends. We've spent $3.07 billion in capital and that's growth sustaining and our contributions to our JVs and then the Monument acquisition was approximately $500 million and that gets you pretty close to the $513 million debt increase for the year.

Now I'll turn it back to Kim for Q&A.

Kimberly Dang

Okay, Michelle, if you'll come on, we'll take questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first caller is Theresa Chen with Barclays.

分析师问答

Theresa Chen

Congratulations on these major commercial milestones I want to ask first on TGP. Following the successful nonbinding open season for the 2019 South project, Can you talk about the progress made on solidifying customer shipper commitments at this point? And how are you thinking about the ultimate size and scope for this project, given the elevated amount of interest beyond the half be offered as well as the downstream growth opportunities, especially on the heels of the Southeast Connector FID? Do you think TGP will play a meaningful role in serving this incremental demand on SG?

Sital Mody

Teresa, this is Sital. Well, one, I'm going to break this question up in a few parts. So the open season that we had the nonbinding 1 in terms of interest, over 2 Bcf of interest in that open season where we are right now with our customers. Clearly, we've been intimating to the market and you guys that there's a demand equation here. And ultimately, we'll need to be solved with incremental molecules. We do feel 2019 in some form is going to help contribute to that molecule shortfall. When we think about what the project ultimately looks like, that's going to depend on who signs at the bottom line. One of the things that we're seeing right now is timing. There are some customers that are further along than others. We're managing through that to try and see how we can stage these projects and maybe come in multiple forms. If I had to kind of gauge where I see the CapEx landing there, roughly around $1.5 billion depending on ultimate interest, we could adjust from there. So a strong interest. We do see the need. I think when you think about the downstream Southeast Connector Tennessee is well positioned to serve that.

But not only that, it's also that middle system power corridor that we have that I talked about on the last call. We see that corridor from Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia and Tennessee. That's a growing demand center. And so all in all, I think the opportunity set there for incremental supply bodes well.

Theresa Chen

Thank you for that detailed answer, Sital. On the Southeast connector, the press release mentioned that the project can be scaled further with additional customer commitments. What is the realistic upside here beyond the $3.1 billion net to KMI? How much bigger can this project be?

Sital Mody

Well, so not too early. We're in the midst of the open season. I will tell you, we had significant interest in the open season, and this was a binding open season. We're still in the process of working through the present agreements, the interest with the -- on the commercial side as well as a very important credit, making sure we have the credit behind. And so we're working through the details. But needless to say, we can scale this up to 3.5, 3.5 Bcf is positive.

Kimberly Dang

[indiscernible] we have enough signed commitments today. to support going forward in FID in the project. And then there are other customers that came in during the open season that are interested that we're working with on PA and they may come in later and that would cause us to scale the project.

Sital Mody

And ultimately, it depends on who signs, right? I mean that's always the driver.

Operator

Our next caller is Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Jefferies.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

I got to hand it to you, impressive here. Let's keep focusing on the Southeast Connector while it's topical here. Maybe just to go back to that point you're bringing up on the middle system here in the prior quarter. How do you think about the size and scope of that opportunity, the timeliness here? I mean you alluded to having some open season pending here, but just what is the scope of contemplated there? You talked about scaling it up to 3.5 Bcf a day a moment ago in parallel. But can you elaborate maybe some other parameters and texture around there?

Sital Mody

So if you're focused on Southeast connector, we've got that open season. We'll close, we'll get some clarity around that. As far as the middle system, there are several power projects that have been evaluating capacity, particularly in our 2019 South project. And so really, the timing there is what we're talking about. There's some that are further along than others. And so what we're going to have to do is really, really position ourselves to sanction parts of the project to be able to accommodate the immediate demand. And then the team is still creatively thinking on how we can accommodate the broader interest in terms of incremental scope. And so that's going to take a few quarters to kind of button up in some form or fashion. And then ultimately, as usual, we're going to have -- we'll function when we get customers that fine to the bottom line.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Excellent. And a little bit bigger picture. After adding $5 billion this quarter, how is the greater than $10 billion commentary or opportunity set change, right? Should investors view the Southeast Connector in Permian Link as conversion from the shadow backlog into a more formal backlog? Or as you just alluded to a second ago that was continued customer activity like effectively replenish that funnel. I don't want to put words in your mouth, but I'd love to hear how you kind of frame that shadow today.

Kimberly Dang

So I mean the shadow backlog today, there is substantial remaining shadow backlog. And I'd say that as we talked about in our comments, adding these big projects leads to further opportunities. And so we think that and we've talked about some of them on this call, but as a result of getting these signed up, this project signed up. It will create bottlenecks in other places that we will have to alleviate that will lead to more projects. And so I think the industry fundamentals in natural gas, as we talked about also in our opening comments, remain very, very strong. And so we are confident that there will be meaningful additions, conversions, if you will, into the backlog over time. .

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

All right. Fair enough. I'll leave it. Actually, just quickly, lastly on Southeast Connector in particular. How does it fit into the broader permitting reform regime just quickly, if you can comment on that.

Kimberly Dang

How does it fit into the permitting reform? Okay. So the bill is in Congress, obviously haven't passed yet. Now the current permitting regime, I think we are very comfortable with and had very good success working with the FERC to get MSX and south of some for both permits from the first within a year, which is the fastest and recent time on permits of this size. And so I think that the current permitting regime, we will be able to get this project done. No concerns there. I think the permit bill that is in Congress is a good one. And I think it does some things that could help on where we've seen certain projects not ours run into problems, but for one, it eliminates the space ability to what I'll call game, the 401 water permits. It eliminates vacatur as a remedy of the court and it strengthens the Nationwide 12 program. So I think it would be great if it got passed. We think it'd be very helpful, and we are very supportive, but we are very comfortable completing these projects under the current -- in the current permitting environment. .

Operator

Our next caller is Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.

Jeremy Tonet

Just wanted to follow up on the capital opportunity set, as you've been describing here. You announced some pretty sizable projects here. I'm just wondering, I guess, as you think about what could be coming forward here, do you see other projects of this type of size? Or were these kind of like the 2 big ones that you've seen? And how do you think about run rate CapEx at this point?

Kimberly Dang

Okay. let me say, it's hard to project exactly what is going to be coming in. But I mean Sital just talked about another $1.5 billion project, and we've talked about other projects that we think will come about as a result of Southeast Connector. So I think the reason for the shadow backlog back in the beginning was because people did not believe in the opportunity set that we were seeing on natural gas. And so we were providing this number to try to hope you understand the opportunity side. I think at this point, with the $14.4 billion backlog, hopefully we've established some credibility about being able to bring these things to fruition. So with respect to run rate, I think the -- it's probably going to be around $4 billion-ish for the next few years in terms of the CapEx that we would expect to.

Jeremy Tonet

Got it. That's very helpful there. And David, I wanted to pick up, I think, on some of the comments you laid out when looking forward to '27, some onetime upside optimization that I would imagine it's not baked into the guide for next year. And it seems as far as major projects coming online, it's more tried in, but that's very late '27, more '28 weighted. I know it's premature to ask, but just any other thoughts as we think about '27 when we are modeling it, the EBITDA.

David Michels

Yes. Yes, we're going to avoid given previewing the 2027 guide for right now. But yes, I think it's important to note that some of those items that we experienced this year it's unlikely that we're going to see those again next year. Winter weather is always hard to predict, But we -- we're not going to budget a colder or more severe winter weather than we normally do. And then the commodity price uplift piece, that just depends on -- you guys all have your own commodity price deck, so you can put that in there. We'll give you the sensitivities that we'll have in the budget.

Kimberly Dang

And let me just address growth for the longer term other than 2027. As David said in the middle of our budget process, we'll get through that. no concerns here about our ability to grow long term over the next 3 to 5 years. As you can see, we've got $14.4 billion in projects that will bring in quite a bit of cash flow. But it is true that because those projects don't come on evenly over all the years, the growth is not going to be even every single year. An example of that is try to -- only 30% of the contracted EBITDA comes on in 2027, because it helps to these items, it's going to be a difficult year to replicate. But the underlying business here, all of our underlying businesses here remain very, very strong. and the projects are going to deliver enormous benefits as they come online.

Operator

Our next caller is Praneeth Satish with Wells Fargo.

Praneeth Satish

Congrats on incredible quarter here with project FIDs. Maybe just going back TGP 219 South, I guess we were a little bit surprised with the $1.5 billion CapEx estimate seems lower than we would have thought. I guess does that $1.5 billion get you all the way to 2 Bcf per day project? Or is that based on the 500 per day open season that you went out with, I guess, where does this project transition from brownfield to greenfield.

David Michels

Well, it ultimately depends on the shipper receipt deliveries, right? I mean I can tell you if we scale to a 2 to 3 Bcf number, it would be higher than the $1.5 billion. we're really focused on, at this point, just a brownfield component. And then ultimately, we'll adjust accordingly with incremental volume at, and that's the way I would think about that.

Praneeth Satish

Okay. That makes sense. And then maybe switching to the Permian here. So Permian Link adding another 2.8 Bcf per day of takeaway I guess how do you think about the risk of overbuilding in the Permian? I mean I know that you're protected on this project because of the take-or-pay contracts. But I guess I'm thinking more about some of the other pipes, some of your older pipes like Gulf Coast Express and when those come off contract, do you see any risk there on the recontracting side? Or do you think we're all too conservative with our Permian supply growth estimates here on the gas side and there's going to be enough gas to fill all these pipes? .

Unknown Executive

So here's, what I think, of both those types. Our intrastate system I talked about this on the last call, our Permian highway and GCX, They're in the heart of the demand centers that are coming and further developing. Our focus has shifted from -- to really focus on these demand pools. What we see there, especially across our P&P pipeline system is we see a power demand center forming. And so to the extent that there's any push pullback by any of the producers that are underpinning the project. We see demand pull. The same thing is out there in our Gulf Coast system. They were both of these pipes were some of the first flights both from a cost perspective. relatively low on the cost spectrum. And so what we see there is GCX. There's so much incremental LNG demand that is yet to come. And so I think we feel pretty good about that. And then overall our focus has been on market pull, right? And so we see those underpinned by long-term contracts. So from a portfolio perspective, we feel pretty good.

Kimberly Dang

Yes. I mean point, we've got like 6,000 miles of intrastate pipe and 145 Bcf of storage and those pipes tie into that -- or part of that system and tie in to a lot of demand. And so we feel good from a demand pull standpoint that we can continue -- those pipes will continue to have opportunities. .

Operator

Our next caller is Manav Gupta with UBS.

Manav Gupta

Just for the record, we always viewed your claims of $10 billion shadow backlog very credibly. And you did say that the 2 projects add further credibility, even if they would not have been announced, we would have been very confident that your backlog would end over -- well over $10 billion before year-end. So I just wanted to put that out there. A quick question. I wanted to go a little to Trident. There's a lot of gas getting on the Gulf Coast and you have the ability to eventually move it around. So can you give us an update on what the Phase I and Phase II of Trident is looking like and how you'll be able to help other industrial companies and LNG producers by being able to move the gas around Gulf Coast?

Kimberly Dang

Okay. Let me talk Trident is on time and on budget and shipping delivered in February of next year and Sital, you want to talk about the market?

Sital Mody

Yes. So I mean, look, we've talked about this when we sanction the project. Trident, we saw a need -- there's an industrial corridor developing around Trident, both from a power perspective and then on the industrial side. But beyond that, we pull -- you get down to the LNG corridor and we saw the need to go from there further west to the Gulf Coast corridor we see incremental demand. And so that, coupled with our Texas Header, our KMLP header and the KMP expansions that we've got, we've got an ability to serve the Texas, Louisiana Gulf Coast, and we see significant demand developing there as well. So as Rich alluded to earlier, when you get these stems inside and you get ancillary -- and tertiary expansions off of [indiscernible] we feel pretty good about that, and we think we can help from the on the demand side as this demand development. .

Manav Gupta

My quick follow-up was a little bit just focused on the Florida gas market. It's a steadily growing gas market. If you could comment on it, and obviously, talk a little bit about your next phase of expansion at FGT, how that is progressing.

Sital Mody

Okay. Well, I will talk broadly. As you know, we're not the operator of FTT, We'll let Energy Transfer talk about the details. But I will tell you this. We've been talking about this thematically in the Southeast. We see strong demand in Florida. We do FTT sanctioned a few projects already. We're obviously in discussions with other customers on future potential expansions. And we see the demand profile as being strong. And so I'll just leave it at that. And as you know, we're not the operator there. We work with the operator, but we feel pretty good about the asset as well. And it's not just SGT, [indiscernible] who also can help serve some of that growing market.

Operator

Our next caller is Jean Ann Salisbury with Bank of America.

Jean Ann Salisbury

Congrats on the great quarter. Can you speak to whether the anchor hyperscaler of Permian Link is planning to be online prior to when Permian Link starts and you'll kind of replace it as the gas source or if you're planning to ramp together and so your timing is basically linked to their timing.

David Michels

Well, without getting into the customer details, I'll tell you, we are trying to accommodate multiple customers on this project. I mean we've got an anchor hyperscaler, but we had significant interest. We're also talking to those other customers I think the anchor tenant obviously is driving the need for speed. And I think 1 of the benefits that Permian Link brings to the power market we talked about before is the length of storage and the flexibility and reliability that helps these hyperscalers achieve their reliability. I think that's a real differentiator here. The next phase, we look at all of our storage facilities to see where we can kind of enhance service and flexibility, and that's what I think differentiates this.

Jean Ann Salisbury

That makes sense. And then building on Theresa's earlier question, do you anticipate all the gas that's feeding Southeast corridor like will it substantially all originate from Appalachia? And if that's the case, would you potentially require even more expansion than just TGP can provide?

David Michels

Well, so look, 1 of the beauties of kind of the locations we picked is we've got access to multiple pipeline corridors, right, Tennessee, previously, we want to grow Tennessee, but we have interconnects with Columbia Gas. We've got interconnect with Tetco. We've got interconnects planned with several other major interstates there. And ultimately, those types also have forward haul backhaul capabilities. And so when you think about where the supply could come from, we've always said we need incremental molecules to move not just gas on gas competition. And so you basically could get a molecule from the Gulf Coast to that point via all of these major shrunk pipes, including Tennessee and then also from the [indiscernible] Marcellus, Southwest Utica, down to that point. And so it's multiple basins that can kind of serve that takeoff point. That's the beauty of it.

Operator

Our next caller is Brandon Bingham with Scotia Bank.

Brandon Bingham

Wanted to maybe kind of go back to the U.S. Gulf Coast LNG dynamics. And in particular, as it relates to Permian and Haynesville as the supply source obviously, some puts and takes with both. But just with the rate of change in Permian gas here and maybe not the most favorable price [indiscernible] development. Just -- how do you see those 2 basins playing out in the fight for U.S. Gulf Coast capacity and who could be the primary driver there?

David Michels

Well, we thought all along we believe it's going to be all of the above. You're going to need -- we see the demand profile that Rich started off with, it's significant. That's significant growth and it's going to take more than those basins to satisfy that growth. So we think there's plenty of resource. The key is going to be building that infrastructure in the middle, which we're really, really focused on. And then ultimately, the price will take care of itself.

Kimberly Dang

Yes. And I mean if you look at what [indiscernible], I think they're pretty similar to our internal numbers. They've got Haynesville growing by 13 Bcf Permian growing by a little over 10% and Marcellus growing by 13%. So those are the 3 big producing basins that are helping to get that 46 Bcf of growth that we referenced between now and 2035. We need them all.

Brandon Bingham

No, it's Yes, absolutely fair. And then just maybe quickly kind of going back to those Wood Mac numbers or just anybody who's kind of put together the longer-dated total gas demand picture, would be kind of curious to hear your commentary and perspective just around like a capture rate to Kinder Morgan of all of that. Like looking at the SNG, the comments that you've made in [indiscernible].

Kimberly Dang

So I mean there's no science behind us other than we move about 40% of the gas in the U.S. market. And so we move about 50% of the gas in Mexico, 40% going to LNG and 45% of the power demand across the South. So I mean, if you want -- I mean, I think that's as good a number as any.

Operator

Our next caller is Keith Stanley with Wolfe Research.

Keith Stanley

First, I wanted to clarify the SEC projects you're sanctioning today, does that include the SEC extension line up to the Nashville area? And then if you could comment at all on the phasing for both FCC and Permian Link, they start up in the fourth quarter of 2030. When would you get to the targeted build multiple?

Kimberly Dang

So yes, it does include -- SEC does include the greenfield line. And on Permian Link, it comes online -- and then on SEC, it comes on 2030, 2031 and 2032. That comes on over 3 years.

Keith Stanley

Got it. Second 1 on Western Gateway. So you're investing $250 million and contributing SFPP for your interest and PSX, I think, is constructing most of it. How does risk sharing work in that JV for the investment in the event there were cost overruns or delays there in construction, would you have to fund your share of that? Or is there a separate mechanism given how you're contributing to the JV?

Kimberly Dang

Let me say a couple of things on that. One is, I think we're being very prudent about how we're approaching this project in terms of spending capital until we get more comfort around the ability and make sure we're very confident that we can get built through the states that this has to get it through. And then secondly, what I'll say, and I'm not going to go into a lot of detail about it. But -- there are -- we do have certain cost protections against cost overruns on that project.

Operator

Our next caller is John Mackay with Goldman Sachs.

John Mackay

I wanted to pick up on kind of the general tone of this. And Kim, you answered it a little bit and certainly, the backlog increase is a bit of an answer but there has been at least a perceived kind of slowdown in kind of broader contracting activity some volatility in the markets. I'd love just to hear from you guys, like, has the tone with customers changed all that much over the last couple of months, compared to, let's say, earlier this year.

David Michels

No. I mean, we haven't seen a change. I think our customers continue to engage, and we continue to look for opportunities. I think they see this as we become an increasingly globally connected market. I think there's been more focus on how to handle some of the volatility through our storage assets. And so we've just seen the dialogue continues. It's been good.

Keith Stanley

That's great. And then when we look at the implied returns on these new projects being sub 6x or if you look at something like the billion CapEx per Bcf of capacity numbers kind of going up over time. Can you just touch a little bit about kind of customer willingness to kind of take some of these higher implied rates? And what that means maybe from looking at a kind of producer side versus the demand side customer?

Kimberly Dang

A couple of things. One, I think what you're referencing is the cost per pipeline mile or whatever has gone up, and that's largely -- that's going to be a function of a couple of things. One, steel prices with the flash pipe prices have increased compression costs have increased. So that's what you're seeing in the cost numbers. We have not seen customer pushback in terms of -- I mean we didn't change our return thresholds, right? We're still targeting the same return thresholds. And so -- we haven't increased those or decrease those. And again, they will vary with risk and return. But we have not seen a lot of customer pushback as a result of the increase in the materials cost that we've seen.

John Mackay

Just any comments on kind of customer mix in terms of producer willingness to engage versus the demand side?

Kimberly Dang

Well, generally, the projects that we're expecting to the -- I mean, well, all the projects we're sanctioning today are demand pull. And that is our preference when we do these projects because I think that demand can be -- basins can come and go to some extent, some of them have been there for a long time. But the demand pull it is there for decades. And so we feel very good about the customers on these projects.

Operator

Our next caller is Spiro Dounis with Citi.

Spiro Dounis

I want to start first with project timing. You talked about adding cash flow after that 2032 time frame, but it sounds like you're still filling in some growth for 2019 and 2030. Kim, you also mentioned a $4 billion spending cadence from here and -- on my math, TGP 219 South should pretty much get you to that level once it's FID. So I wanted to understand how you're thinking about, I guess, what's needed to fill up more growth in 2019 and 2030 or if we should expect most of the major project announcements from here beyond TGP, of course, maybe to be more weighted or added it to 2030-plus time frame?

Kimberly Dang

Well, '29 and 2030 is, we're getting SNG -- South System 4 is coming online. 2028 and Q4 of 2029. So that will drive growth in 2019 and 2030. In -- so -- and then I think MSX is the second phase midyear 28. So that will drive additional growth in 2019. And then these projects, you'll get fourth quarter probably, roughly, you'll get the Permian Lincoln. So -- as I said, it's not going to be exactly the same growth rate every year. It will vary year in and year out. But at -- with this backlog and 5.7x multiple, that's $2.5 billion of cash flow that will be coming our way as soon as we get these things built because these are, again, backed by take-or-pay contracts with either credit or the entities or that have significant collateral posted.

Spiro Dounis

Got it. Second question, talked about Trident, but I want to go to the other side of the Permian and go to Arizona. Hearing more on the utility side about maybe the potential need for another pipeline, just given some utility plans in Arizona, West Valley and some data center development there. you, of course, had Copper State Connector at 1 point. Just curious about maybe the prospects you see to make another move into Arizona.

David Michels

Well, look, I mean, on the Western side, we do see opportunities. We have both of our legs pipeline growth in Arizona in Mexico. And I would caveat, I would characterize it, as we do see significant power demand area. We also see traditional conversion, coal plant conversions as opportunities on the western side. But it's too early to comment on kind of where and how those we do have discussions ongoing out West as well.

Operator

Our next caller is Gabe Moreen with Mizuho..

Gabriel Moreen

I'm not sure if it's allowed, but I'd like to ask some questions on your nonnatural gas businesses. One, I was going to ask, just with the forward curve on crude oil have moved up nicely here in '27 and beyond, whether that puts some CO2 expansions back into play potentially? And then also, I think there may be some inorganic opportunities out there on RNG. I'm just curious your thoughts on potentially expanding that business as well.

Anthony Ashley

Gabe, thank you for [indiscernible] Yes. No, as you know, EOR projects take some time to develop, right? So and the curve has come up, but it's still pretty backwardated. And so I would say, yes, we're looking at all of the projects that we can do and our ability to accelerate, but it's really no different in terms of how we view investment in that business over time. It's going to be looking at that curve and will be stentizing that curve as well. for lower oil prices in case those arise as well. Obviously, the oil price is there's a lot of geopolitical risk associated with that. And so there is some concern to extend the war ends, where crude prices end up. But we're pretty careful in terms of how we look at our investments and we demand higher returns than we do on [indiscernible] businesses for -- to take account of that risk. .

And then on R&D, I don't think we can really kind of talk about ongoing third-party processes. We're aware of those out there, and we'll continue to kind of look whether it makes sense to grow that businesses. We've had some operational issues in that business. I think we'll be careful to the extent that we want to step into a bigger show there, and we'll have to come with a higher return as well.

Kimberly Dang

The other thing I'd say on the RNG business, I mean, we did have to struggle, but we do have a team that has learned and who knows how to operate these at this point. So I think we've developed some expertise there. But we also have a lot of lessons learned, but we would take into account anything we look at. And then I mean to Antony's point on the CO2 stuff, I mean, when we look at those, those are long-term projects. And so we tend to run some kind of fixed oil price to make sure that we get to our returns. So we don't just jump because the current year goes to 80% of projects because the current year goes to $85.

Gabriel Moreen

And if I could just squeeze 1 more on the Bakken. I'm just curious sort of on a double. And how rigor update? It seems like there's some shifts going on there in the G&P landscape in the Bakken. Just wondering if that makes you more or less inclined to invest more capital up there? .

Anthony Ashley

Look, we've invested significant capital up there. We've got -- I think we're pretty well positioned for what we see coming. And we can always adjust if we see the macro environment change a little bit. I think where I would take it is we're sitting in a good spot. We've got the infrastructure we need to accommodate any growth that might.

Our next is Zack Van Everen with TH Research.

Zackery Van Everen

Maybe back on gas supply, whether it's Waha, the Gulf Coast or the Southeast, it definitely feels like there's a fight for gas. As a part of any of these projects, have you helped customers or was it contingent on them also signing supply agreement with producers just to make sure they could fill their FT.

Unknown Executive

The answer to your latter question is no, we don't do anything contingent. But I mean, look, we explained the macro environment, they have to make their own judgment. I think there's plenty of resource -- it's a price function. There's a dry gas window. There's an associated gas window and then there's other basins in and around that can help meet the demand. It's -- once again, assumptions supply and demand and there's other business that can feed through our networks and ultimately get in to serve the pipelines that we have from different areas, for example, the Eagle Ford can go the other direction as well. So that's how I would leave it. I think it's broad enough. I think folks understand that there's -- they need to see a molecule. I think we make sure that's clear, and the rest invested that. .

Zackery Van Everen

Got it. That makes sense. And then maybe a quick clarifying note, when you mentioned the 200 gigawatts in the Southeast equating to about 8 Bcf a day. Is that a risk number because it feels a little lower than the general 150 MMcf a day per gigawatt that most people use.

Unknown Executive

Yes, I can -- I mean, we -- I just -- to keep my mindset that inefficient plants beneficial plans.

Kimberly Dang

And look, that probably likely will all happen, right? That's all the connection requests, assuming they all go, and that's all natural gas. And so it will be some combination -- the point is there is a huge amount of demand growth in the Southeast, and that's part of what Southeast Connector is addressing.

Operator

Our next call is Jason Gabelman with TD Cowen.

Jason Gabelman

I wanted to ask about Permian Link and your kind of targeted IRRs. You've you talk about kind of, I think, mid-teen after-tax IRRs. And I wonder, given this project with only 1 anchor shipper has some perception of higher risk did that require you to kind of construct the project for a higher IRR? Or do you feel like the risk profile of this project is similar to your existing business?

Kimberly Dang

Look, we approach this project the same way. We approach all of our other projects. And so what I'll say is this, which is can move up and down on the risk return threshold and our value proposition, meaning that if a customer is willing to share in some of the cost then we can move down the return threshold a little bit if the customer is not willing to share in cost overrun, so we need a higher return. And so we have some flexibility in how we arch that -- and then as we negotiate our customers at times, have a preference between, hey, I don't want to cost share. I want you to take the cost risk and -- and that's 1 rate, and we put them on rate. And then if they want to share in the cost risk, there's another rate. The other thing I'd say is Permian Link, it has the ability to upsize by adding compression. And so we can add more shippers to this over time. And that will lead to even higher returns.

Unknown Executive

Yes. It's important when we talk about the scale of this -- I mean, the scope of this project, we have capabilities to serve incremental. And we're talking to incremental customers to basically fill the rest of the basket, if you will.

Zackery Van Everen

Got it. My other question is a bit separate. As you kind of pursue connectivity to move more gas from the Marcellus. I'm wondering if there's anything to be gained to move further kind of upstream into Marcellus -- would you get anything? Is there any commercial value for controlling more of the gas upstream from your pipes or not really at this point?

Unknown Executive

I mean, look, we have some pretty good customers of our own that are very sophisticated in doing that. And I think we stick to what we do best, which is build large-scale infrastructure, very similar to the Power story. We're not focused on power -- we're focused on building pipeline infrastructure. And so I think we would collaborate with to our customers to do that. And I think that's probably the best part for us.

Kimberly Dang

Yes. And I think there's a very established players very established mature players in that. And so typically, they're going to have an incumbent advantage.

Operator

Our next caller is Harry Mateer with Barclays.

Harry Mateer

Both Southeast Connector and Permian Link are being developed at JVs. I'm curious how you plan to balance contributing capital into those JVs from KMI, at least initially versus using what I think appears to be pretty decent balance sheet capacity, both those JVs during the construction phase.

Kimberly Dang

Yes. I think it's going to be a combination of the JV funding a portion of it and us contributing in capital. So I think those JVs have nice cash flows that can go to find a portion of the CapEx. We can take on incremental debt at those JVs. If we do that, though, our plan is to do it in such -- well, we will do that, but our plan is to do it such a way to maintain the existing ratings at those JV pipes. And then there will be some capital required above that, in which case, we will make equity contributions from owners. And so now if we also have the flexibility given where our balance sheet is and our cash flow that if we wanted to or needed to, we can fund that 100%, we could fund that CapEx 100% from KMI.

Operator

Mr. Kinder, at this time, we are showing no further questions, sir.

Richard Kinder

Okay. Well, let me just conclude with 2 -- again, I want to say -- and Kim mentioned this number that if you look at the returns expected on this $14.4 billion of backlog. That's $2.5 billion of additional EBITDA. And if you look at that in terms of where we are presently, that pushes us between $11.5 billion, $12 billion of EBITDA. The other thing I would mention is, last call, there were some let me call it skepticism about whether we could really bring these projects along. And I think I made the remark, well, we have to get the horses in the corral. I just want to say, we've got a hell of a lot of those horses in the out with the saddles on but we got more horses just outside the corral. And I think you're going to see them and they want to come in -- that will be the message for the future. But thank you all for your good questions. We appreciate it's been a great quarter, and we hope to bring you more good news in the future. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect at this time, and have a great rest of your day.