Cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh Q3 2026 của LSB Industries (LXU): EBITDA điều chỉnh tăng 55%

LSB Industries (NYSE: LXU) công bố kết quả kinh doanh quý 3/2026 tăng trưởng tích cực hơn do giá bán tăng và chi phí giảm đã bù đắp cho sản lượng bán ra giảm sau hoạt động bảo dưỡng định kỳ. Ban lãnh đạo cũng phác thảo các cải tiến vận hành, tiềm năng lợi nhuận từ thu giữ carbon và khả năng mở rộng nhà máy amoniac El Dorado.

Các điểm chính

• EBITDA điều chỉnh quý 3/2026 tăng 55% so với cùng kỳ năm trước lên 62 triệu USD từ mức 40 triệu USD, nhờ nhu cầu thị trường công nghiệp và nông nghiệp tăng trưởng mạnh, sản lượng axit nitric và dung dịch amoni nitrat cao hơn cùng hiệu quả thực thi thương mại.
• Dòng tiền từ hoạt động kinh doanh đạt 132 triệu USD trong 9 tháng đầu năm 2026. Sau khi trừ 58 triệu USD chi phí vốn duy trì, dòng tiền tự do đạt khoảng 74 triệu USD.
• LSB kết thúc quý với hơn 200 triệu USD tiền mặt, các khoản tương đương tiền và đầu tư ngắn hạn, trong khi hệ số đòn bẩy ròng đạt khoảng 1,1 lần.
• Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến các cải tiến vận hành tính theo quy mô năm tích lũy sẽ đạt khoảng 35 triệu USD vào cuối năm 2026, so với mục tiêu 55 triệu USD, và hướng tới mục tiêu thêm 15 triệu đến 20 triệu USD vào cuối năm 2027.
• Dự án thu giữ và cô lập carbon El Dorado được ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng sẽ tạo ra 25 triệu đến 30 triệu USD lợi nhuận hàng năm, sau khi trừ chi phí vận hành, khi đi vào hoạt động toàn bộ trong thời gian hưởng tín dụng thuế 45Q kéo dài 12 năm.
• Ban lãnh đạo đánh giá điều kiện quý 4 là thuận lợi, dẫn chứng nhu cầu mạnh mẽ, giá amoniac tại Tampa đạt 545 USD/tấn trong tháng 10, UAN tại NOLA tiệm cận 390 USD/tấn và chi phí khí đốt tự nhiên trung bình đạt khoảng 3 USD/MMBtu từ đầu quý đến nay.

Dữ liệu tài chính chính

Giá bán tăng và chi phí giảm đã thừa sức bù đắp cho sản lượng bán ra giảm, vốn chủ yếu phản ánh hoạt động bảo dưỡng định kỳ hoàn thành trong quý. Một phần lợi ích chi phí đến từ việc thu hồi kim loại quý, trong khi lượng hàng tồn kho dự trữ trước quý 4 cũng giúp dịch chuyển chi phí ra khỏi kỳ này.

Chi phí bán hàng, quản lý doanh nghiệp (SG&A) vẫn cao hơn mức năm 2025 chủ yếu do chi phí thù lao bằng cổ phiếu gắn với thỏa thuận giữ chân nhân sự, thù lao biến đổi cao hơn, chi phí chuẩn bị cho phiên tòa với Leidos, phí dịch vụ chuyên môn liên quan đến thương vụ thâu tóm CCS và các khoản đầu tư khác. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết hầu hết các chi phí này là không thường xuyên và dự kiến sẽ không kéo dài sang năm 2027.

Tình hình kinh doanh và hoạt động vận hành

Các yếu tố nền tảng của thị trường công nghiệp tiếp tục vững chắc. Đầu tư hạ tầng gắn liền với các ngành liên quan đến AI, điện khí hóa, lưới điện, đưa sản xuất trở lại trong nước (onshoring), đường xá và đường cao tốc tiếp tục hỗ trợ hoạt động khai khoáng tại Bắc Mỹ và nhu cầu amoni nitrat dài hạn.

Tình trạng gián đoạn nguồn cung từ các nhà sản xuất cùng nhu cầu thị trường đã hỗ trợ giá amoni nitrat giao ngay và theo hợp đồng. LSB đã ưu tiên sản xuất và bán các sản phẩm AN có biên lợi nhuận cao hơn trong quý 3 và dự kiến tiếp tục chiến lược này cho đến khi công suất bị ngưng trệ của ngành dự kiến quay trở lại trong nửa đầu năm 2027.

Thị trường phân bón nitơ phục vụ nông nghiệp cũng duy trì tích cực. Giá urê toàn cầu đã tăng khoảng 100 USD/tấn trong quý 3, trong khi giá UAN tăng 75 USD/tấn ngắn kể từ đầu tháng 7. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết đợt tăng giá ngô trong tháng 9 đã thúc đẩy các hợp đồng mua trước diễn ra sớm hơn, giúp công ty bán được lượng lớn sản phẩm xuyên qua giai đoạn trầm lắng mua sắm thường lệ của mùa thu.

Giá khí đốt tự nhiên TTF của Châu Âu đã tăng từ khoảng 18 USD lên 30 USD/MMBtu trong 3 tháng trước đó, đẩy chi phí sản xuất amoniac ước tính của Châu Âu lên trên 1.000 USD/tấn. LSB ước tính việc cắt giảm sản lượng tại Châu Âu có thể chiếm từ 20% đến 25% tổng sản lượng, tương đương tới 2 triệu tấn. Để so sánh, giá khí đốt tự nhiên tại Mỹ vẫn duy trì quanh mức 3 USD/MMBtu, củng cố lợi thế chi phí mang tính cấu trúc của LSB.

Sau đợt bảo dưỡng định kỳ, nhà máy El Dorado đạt sản lượng khoảng 1.350 đến 1.370 tấn amoniac mỗi ngày, vượt công suất thiết kế ban đầu là 1.150 tấn/ngày. Nhà máy Pryor vận hành ở mức khoảng 675 đến 700 tấn/ngày, trong khi Cherokee sản xuất 520 đến 530 tấn/ngày. Khi không có đợt bảo dưỡng nào và các nhà máy amoniac đạt công suất tối đa, ban lãnh đạo ước tính tổng sản lượng quy chuẩn hàng năm của toàn bộ hệ thống đạt khoảng 875.000 đến 900.000 tấn.

Triển vọng từ ban lãnh đạo

Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng nhu cầu mạnh mẽ từ ngành công nghiệp và nông nghiệp sẽ hỗ trợ thêm một quý đạt lợi nhuận và dòng tiền khả quan trong quý 4/2026. Tại thời điểm diễn ra cuộc họp, công ty đã bán được khoảng 70% sản lượng quý 4 và tỷ lệ bán trước cho quý 1/2027 thấp hơn đáng kể, tạo cơ hội hưởng lợi nếu giá tiếp tục tăng.

LSB dự kiến sẽ đạt khoảng 35 triệu USD cải tiến vận hành tính theo quy mô năm tích lũy vào cuối năm 2026. Mục tiêu tiếp theo là đạt thêm 15 triệu đến 20 triệu USD vào cuối năm 2027 thông qua các sáng kiến về sản xuất, cơ cấu sản phẩm, hiệu suất và chi phí.

Việc xây dựng cơ sở CCS El Dorado đang được tiến hành, trong khi công ty tiếp tục làm việc với EPA về giấy phép Nhóm VI (Class VI). Mặc dù tiến độ theo dõi của EPA chỉ ra ngày đi vào hoạt động tiềm năng là trong nửa cuối năm 2027, ban lãnh đạo cho biết thời điểm này có thể sớm hơn tùy thuộc vào việc hoàn tất quá trình xem xét của EPA.

Đối với tiềm năng mở rộng nhà máy amoniac El Dorado, LSB dự kiến hoàn thành nghiên cứu FEED và tiến tới quyết định đầu tư cuối cùng vào quý 2/2027. Nếu được thông qua, dự án sẽ được phối hợp thực hiện cùng đợt bảo dưỡng định kỳ dự kiến vào năm 2029 của nhà máy và bổ sung khoảng 100.000 tấn công suất amoniac hàng năm. Ban lãnh đạo ước tính EBITDA điều chỉnh hàng năm tăng thêm từ 20 triệu đến 25 triệu USD, tùy thuộc vào giá amoniac, so với chi phí dự án ròng từ 105 triệu đến 120 triệu USD.

Rủi ro và các yếu tố cần theo dõi

• Thời điểm cấp giấy phép Nhóm VI của EPA vẫn chưa chắc chắn và ảnh hưởng trực tiếp đến ngày bắt đầu dự án CCS El Dorado.
• Hoạt động bón phân amoniac vào mùa thu phụ thuộc vào thời tiết thuận lợi. Ban lãnh đạo dẫn chứng điều kiện thời tiết ấm, khô và việc thu hoạch bị chậm trễ ở một số khu vực của Mỹ là những biến số trong ngắn hạn.
• Thị trường nitơ và năng lượng vẫn chịu tác động từ các xung đột địa chính trị ở Trung Đông và khu vực Biển Đen, tình trạng gián đoạn thương mại và biến động kinh tế vĩ mô diện rộng.
• Một số lợi ích chi phí trong quý 3 mang tính tạm thời hoặc liên quan đến thời điểm, bao gồm biến động hàng tồn kho và thu hồi kim loại quý. Ban lãnh đạo ước tính khoảng một nửa tác động chi phí thuận lợi được thảo luận trong cuộc họp là có tính bền vững.
• Phiên tòa của LSB chống lại Leidos Engineering đã bắt đầu trong tuần diễn ra cuộc họp và dự kiến kéo dài từ ba đến bốn tuần. Ban lãnh đạo tuyên bố rằng không có kết quả nào được đảm bảo chắc chắn.

Các điểm nổi bật trong phần Hỏi & Đáp với chuyên gia phân tích

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết khoảng 10% sản lượng công nghiệp và khai khoáng đang hưởng lợi từ hiệu quả kinh tế giá giao ngay cao hơn, và động lực này dự kiến sẽ tiếp tục cho đến khi các vấn đề về nguồn cung dịu bớt vào cuối nửa đầu năm 2027.

Về phân bổ vốn, ban lãnh đạo chỉ ra rằng LSB có kế hoạch duy trì thanh khoản cho các thương vụ thâu tóm danh mục tiềm năng. Công ty cũng dự kiến bắt đầu sử dụng chương trình mua lại cổ phiếu đã được Hội đồng quản trị phê duyệt một cách có chọn lọc, có thể thông qua các đợt mua nhỏ hàng quý khi được đánh giá là hiệu quả.

LSB xác nhận rằng công ty đã có khoản tài trợ khoảng 30 triệu USD từ USDA liên quan đến việc mở rộng amoniac và xử lý điểm nghẽn tại El Dorado. Một đề xuất mở rộng Giai đoạn 2 riêng biệt không nằm trong số tám dự án được lựa chọn ban đầu, mặc dù các cuộc thảo luận với USDA vẫn đang tiếp tục.

Công ty có một đợt bảo dưỡng định kỳ theo kế hoạch vào năm 2027, dự kiến diễn ra tại cơ sở Cherokee, Alabama vào tháng 9.

Toàn văn biên bản cuộc họp báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the LSB Industries Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]

It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Kristy Carver, Senior Vice President and Treasurer. Kristy, please go ahead.

Kristy Carver

Good morning, everyone. Joining me today are Mark Behrman, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Cheryl Maguire, our Chief Financial Officer; and Damien Renwick, our Chief Commercial Officer.

Please note that today's call includes forward-looking statements. These statements are based on the company's current intent, expectations and projections. They are not guarantees of future performance and a variety of factors could cause the actual results to differ materially. For more information about the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected or implied by forward-looking statements, please see the risk factors set forth in the company's most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q.

On the call, we will reference non-GAAP results. Please see the press release in the Investors section of our website, lsbindustries.com, and the appendix of the related investor presentation for further information regarding forward-looking statements and reconciliations of non-GAAP results to GAAP results.

At this time, I'd like to go ahead and turn the call over to Mark.

Mark Behrman

Thank you, Kristy, and good morning, everyone. Our teams delivered strong third quarter results, supported by strong demand across both our industrial and agricultural businesses and continued execution across the organization. This translated into significant year-over-year growth in adjusted EBITDA and EPS and reflected the progress we are making in overall reliability, efficiency and product mix optimization.

We are pleased to see these operational improvements increasingly reflected in our financial performance, while we continue to advance several growth initiatives that we believe can drive additional earnings and cash flow over the next several years. Last quarter, we assumed full ownership of our El Dorado carbon capture and sequestration project from Lapis Carbon Solutions. Construction of the carbon capture facility is in full swing, and we continue to work closely with the EPA to secure approval of our Class VI permit. I'll provide additional details about the project later on in the call.

As we look to the final quarter of 2026 and into 2027, we remain focused on continuing to improve our plant reliability and increasing production to meet customer demand. We believe these efforts will help us to generate strong free cash flow and increase shareholder value.

Now I'll turn over the call to Damien to provide more detail on the commercial environment.

Damien Renwick

Thanks, Mark, and good morning, everyone. Supply constraints stemming from continued geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Black Sea region continue to challenge global nitrogen and energy markets. Over the last 3 months, European TTF natural gas prices have risen from about $18 to $30 per MMBtu, pushing European ammonia production costs to over $1,000 per metric ton, well above import parity.

In response, European producers are curtailing production and relying more heavily on imports, further tightening already limited global supplies as we head towards winter in the coming months. We estimate that ammonia producers may have either shut down production or reduced production rates to minimum levels, resulting in curtailments of between 20% to 25% or up to 2 million metric tons of production. In the U.S., natural gas remains around $3 per MMBtu, giving us a significant structural cost advantage.

Turning to our industrial business. Fundamentals remain strong. Infrastructure spending continues to grow, driven by AI-related sectors, electrification, power and grid investment, onshoring of manufacturing and continued spending on roads and highways. As a result, copper prices continue to rise, and gold prices remain elevated despite easing from record highs earlier this year. These market fundamentals and resulting strong prices are driving solid mining activity across North America, and the growing pipeline of mining projects advancing as quickly as permitting allows supports robust long-term demand for AN.

Producer outages and strong demand continued to support both spot and contract AN pricing. During the third quarter, we used the flexibility of our production assets to prioritize higher-margin AN production and sales. We expect to continue favoring AN until sometime in the first half of 2027 when shuttered production is expected to return to the market.

Turning to Page 5. Fertilizer market conditions remain firm as global supply conditions continue to evolve. Ongoing supply uncertainty, trade disruptions and broader macro volatility have kept prices above historical levels. And, importantly, demand for our products is strong.

Ammonia prices eased during the third quarter with Tampa settling at $545 per metric ton for October, reflecting lower phosphate demand amid extremely high sulfur prices. Subject to favorable application weather, we continue to expect a strong fall ammonia season because ammonia's significant price discount to other products should encourage application. Confirmed sales position our forward order book well through year-end, while preserving flexibility to capture additional volume if prices rise.

Global urea prices strengthened by approximately $100 per metric ton through the third quarter. Volumes from the Middle East remain limited. And while China has increased exports by approximately 4 million metric tons this year after the government eased export restrictions, this has done little to ease the shortage of supply impacting global markets. Strong European import demand is adding further support. We expect this dynamic to continue through Q4.

UAN pricing followed higher urea pricing, increasing by $75 per short ton since early July. The September corn rally improved affordability and encouraged growers to book more forward tons and to book earlier than they did last year. This activity drove healthy retailer demand during the quarter. Although we expect the typical lull in fall buy, our order book is well sold through this period, positioning us to capture additional upside as we enter a healthy spring season.

We also expect support for corn prices as the USDA projects 2026-'27 record world corn consumption exceeding production. That would push global stocks-to-use down to about 21% from 23% last year. Stocks at the major exporters are also shrinking and Europe's drought-damaged crop is down to 48 million tons. We believe these conditions will keep U.S. grower economics stable and support healthy nitrogen demand into the 2027 planting season.

While the path of the geopolitical conflict is difficult to predict, we expect elevated European gas costs to persist through the winter, supporting a constructive nitrogen market through at least spring 2027. As a domestic low-cost supplier to two critical end markets, agriculture and industrial, we will continue to manage our production flexibility to meet demand and capture the best available margins across both.

Now I'll turn the call over to Cheryl to discuss our third quarter financial results and our outlook. Cheryl?

Cheryl Maguire

Thanks, Damien, and good morning. On Page 6, you'll see a summary of our third quarter 2026 financial results. Strong demand across our industrial and agricultural businesses, combined with higher nitric acid and AN solution production and effective commercial execution drove a 55% increase in adjusted EBITDA compared to the third quarter of last year. As of September 30, we have generated more than $220 million of adjusted EBITDA on a trailing 12-month basis, which remains an important reference point as we evaluate the earnings power of the business across different market environments and cycles.

Page 7 bridges our third quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $40 million to our third quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $62 million. Higher selling prices and lower costs more than offset lower sales volumes, primarily driven by the prior turnaround, which was completed in the third quarter. Part of the lower cost relates to precious metals recoveries received in the quarter, which are a normal part of our operations, although amounts realized can vary based on recovery activities.

One other thing worth pointing out is that while we are seeing decreased costs related to our optimization initiatives, SG&A is tracking above 2025 levels, primarily reflecting stock-based compensation relating to a retention arrangement established earlier this year, higher variable compensation, costs associated with the ramp-up of the Leidos trial preparation as well as professional fees related to the acquisition of the carbon capture project and other investments. The majority of these costs are nonrecurring in nature and not expected to continue into 2027.

Lastly, on Page 8, you can see that our balance sheet remains solid. We ended the third quarter with more than $200 million in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments and net leverage of approximately 1.1x. Through the first 9 months of 2026, we generated $132 million of operating cash flow. After subtracting $58 million of sustaining capital, we generated approximately $74 million of free cash flow through September 30.

We also invested approximately $31 million in growth-related projects, including approximately $24 million for the acquisition and development of the carbon capture project at our El Dorado facility.

Looking ahead to the remainder of 2026, demand remains strong across both our industrial and agricultural businesses. Pricing also remains favorable with Tampa Ammonia settled at $545 per metric ton for October and NOLA UAN currently trading around $390 per ton, while natural gas costs have averaged approximately $3 per MMBtu so far in the fourth quarter. Together, these conditions position us to deliver another strong quarter of earnings and cash flow for our shareholders.

And now I'll turn it back over to Mark.

Mark Behrman

Thank you, Cheryl. Turning to Page 9. I'd like to spend a few minutes discussing the progress we've made on our value creation initiatives over the past several years as well as the opportunities that lie ahead. Coming out of 2023, we announced a focused effort to achieve an additional $55 million of run rate adjusted EBITDA through increased ammonia production and greater focus on upgrading that ammonia into high-value downstream products, including nitric acid, ammonium nitrate solution and UAN.

We've also been focused on fixed and variable cost optimization, process efficiency and cost reduction. As a reminder, at the end of 2025, we had achieved approximately $20 million of annual run rate improvement. I'm pleased to report that we expect to add another $15 million of annual EBITDA improvement by the end of 2026. That would bring us to approximately $35 million in cumulative annual run rate improvements against our $55 million target. We expect to capture another $15 million to $20 million of annual EBITDA improvement by the end of 2027. In addition to these operational improvements, we continue to make progress on our carbon capture and sequestration or CCS project at El Dorado.

To quickly recap, our investment in assuming full ownership of the El Dorado CCS project is being made in stages tied to key milestones as we focus on project development, permitting, construction, et cetera. Full ownership of the project provides us with the enhanced commercial flexibility to optimize the use of our CO2 and evaluate future expansion opportunities without limitations.

Although the published EPA underground injection control Class VI permit tracker reflects a potential operational date in the second half of 2027, based on our continued engagement with senior officials from the EPA's Region 6 office, we believe an earlier operational date is possible depending on the timing of the EPA's completion of its review. When fully operational, we expect to generate between $25 million and $30 million of annual earnings, net of any operating costs associated with CCS operations over the 12-year 45Q credit period.

Turning to the potential expansion of our ammonia production capacity at El Dorado. We expect to complete a FEED study and move to FID sometime during the second quarter of 2027. Should we decide to move forward, we would look to complete the project alongside the planned 2029 turnaround at the El Dorado site.

Once completed, we expect the expansion to add approximately 100,000 tons of annual ammonia production capacity, which we estimate could generate between $20 million and $25 million of incremental annual EBITDA, depending on the ammonia pricing market. We expect the total net project cost to be between $105 million and $120 million. And we anticipate that this project will be funded with existing cash on our balance sheet.

To bring all of this together, we are making meaningful progress towards generating approximately $100 million in cumulative incremental annualized EBITDA from initiatives launched since 2023. We expect to have captured approximately $35 million in annual run rate operational improvements by the end of 2026 with further operational improvements and our CCS project expected to contribute an additional $40 million to $50 million in annual run rate improvement by the end of 2027. Looking further ahead, the potential El Dorado ammonia expansion represents an additional $20 million to $25 million of incremental annual EBITDA should we proceed and complete the project in 2029.

I'm incredibly proud of the team and their dedication, hard work and discipline they bring to these efforts every day. The progress we've made is a direct reflection of their commitment to continuous improvement. We're excited about what we've accomplished and just as importantly, what lies ahead. We have a lot of opportunity.

Lastly, our trial against Leidos Engineering began earlier this week and is expected to last 3 to 4 weeks. While no outcome is guaranteed, we believe we have a strong case. We will not be commenting further on the case while the trial is underway.

Before we open it up for questions, I'd like to mention that Damien and I will be attending the RBC Global Industrials Conference in New York on November 17. We look forward to speaking with some of you there.

That concludes our prepared remarks, and we will now be happy to answer any of your questions. Thank you.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question today is coming from Lucas Beaumont from UBS.

Phần hỏi đáp

Lucas Beaumont

I just wanted to start on kind of the benefits that you've been getting in the IM market with the supply disruptions there. So I guess my prior understanding was that maybe 10% of the volumes were going out at higher spot earnings levels there. I mean just thinking about, I guess, as the supply disruptions continue through early or mid part of next year and then start to revert. I was wondering if you could come up with a way to maybe size what the, I guess, the over-earning has been while the supply disruption has been in place either from a pricing point of view on the spot sales versus where contract pricing is? Or I mean, if you're able to size it in terms of EBITDA, just to think about how that kind of rolls off as we...

Mark Behrman

Damien, do you want to start off with that one?

Damien Renwick

Yes. Lucas, I think, I mean, directionally, the 10% is right. We would expect that to continue on all the way up until the supply issues are resolved sort of towards the end of first half next year. And, yes, again, I would just expect it to continue in line with what we've been doing.

Lucas Beaumont

Okay. And then I guess, just on the order book for the fourth quarter. So I mean, there's a fairly wide disconnect at the moment between where pricing has been and where the cost curve is. I mean, I'm expecting that's going to sort of need to move up into the spring. But I guess the timing is a bit uncertain here, and it's a bit uncertain around, I guess, the specific kind of product slates like ammonia versus UAN and so on.

So I just kind of wanted to get your view there on where you -- I guess, one, where you see pricing going relative to the cost curve? And then two, I mean, if we see a move higher, what's kind of locked in, in terms of your order book now coming out of a lower price period in the third quarter. So will we sort of capture some of that uplift into 4Q? Or are you going to kind of need to wait for the spring to kind of see more of that if that rolls through?

Mark Behrman

Yes. We're pretty bullish on where pricing is today and where it's going. I mean I think you just saw yesterday that Tampa Ammonia moved up slightly less than $100, driven by lots of things that are happening globally on top of, obviously, what's going on in the Middle East. As far as the order book, we're probably 70% or so sold for the fourth quarter. So we do have some upside. And of course, we're significantly less sold for the first quarter. So we'll have a lot of upside there.

Lucas Beaumont

Great. Also just the USDA has sort of been reporting the grant issuances recently for a number of projects. I know you guys had sort of submitted to try and sort of get match funding there on the El Dorado projects, but I didn't see that one announced. I'm not clear that allocated all of the funding yet, but I just wanted to ask if you had any update on that front. Do you know that, I guess, either you didn't get it or you're, kind of, still in the mix and it potentially hasn't been announced yet? Or what's kind of the latest there?

Mark Behrman

Yes. So, to be clear, we already have one grant from the old USDA grant program. And so that's roughly around $30 million, and that's for the expansion of ammonia production and debottlenecking of the ammonia plant at El Dorado. So that's locked in, and we're already working with the USDA and things go back and forth. And it's a reimbursement on an ongoing basis when we incur costs.

As far as, I'll call it, Phase 2 expansion down at El Dorado, which was to build some new assets, we did submit a project. There was a scoring system. They selected those eight projects for my understanding is the full amount. And yes, so we're still in conversations with them. I mean it's entirely possible that one of those eight that were chosen doesn't use all the money, doesn't use any of the money. I mean there's still things moving around. But no, we were not initially chosen for that, and it was a bit of a head scratcher on some of the projects, to be honest.

Operator

Our next question today is coming from Andrew Wong from RBC Capital Markets.

Andrew Wong

Now that you've had the plants running for a few months after the major turnaround, can you just give us a better sense on where you think nameplate production is today? What's a realistic normalized level for annual production across the fleet? And what do you think is like the upper limit that you could produce at right now?

Mark Behrman

Well, I think the turnarounds have left us in a really great place. So I'll start with El Dorado. So nameplate capacity for the plant when we actually started the plant is 1,150 tons per day. Having said that, we've been running significantly over that for a while. But I would say plus or minus 1,300 tons a day is where we had been before the turnaround.

Ammonia plants run at different rates summer versus winter. Just cooler weather allows them to run at higher rates, airflow, cooling systems, things like that. So we came out of the turnaround, and we're running about between 1,350 and 1,370. And we think we can run at higher rates in the cooler weather. So I'm kind of loath to throw another number out there, but higher than 1,370 in the winter. So again, pretty significant increase after the work that we did during the turnaround, and we're excited about that.

At Pryor, I think it was less about increase in rate and more about reliability. So that plant runs generally between 675 tons and 700 tons a day, depending on summer/winter. And we're at those rates, and we're expecting to run more reliably than we have historically. With Cherokee, generally speaking, that plant has run pretty well for a number of years and continues to run at 520 tons to 530 tons on a daily rate basis.

So what does that all mean on an annual basis? If we had no turnarounds in a year and we were running full out on our ammonia plants, we're probably 875,000 tons to 900,000 tons a year.

Andrew Wong

Great. That's great. That's really helpful. And then I guess kind of related to that would be your costs, right? Because the better you have on your production, the lower fixed cost per ton and you had a pretty good quarter. Can you talk about what you would see as sustainable going forward relative to what we saw this quarter?

Mark Behrman

First, I would say we had a really good quarter. Really good. Sustainable, you're talking about margins, you're talking about production, I didn't quite get that.

Andrew Wong

Like when we look at costs, excluding nat gas and other things that -- what I consider non -- what is considered controllable cost, they look really good this quarter. So how sustainable would you think that number is going forward? I know you don't have a specific number...

Cheryl Maguire

Andrew, let me just jump in on that one for a minute. So a couple of things. Costs are lower in the third quarter. We did build some inventory heading into the fourth quarter. And so of course, that does take some cost out of the P&L. And then we did have some precious metal recoveries. As you know, we use precious metals in our acid process, and we do have pretty standard routine recoveries from time to time. Sometimes they're just higher given the cost of the pricing of precious metals, things like that.

But then from a sustainable perspective, look, we're doing a lot of work on our margins right now and how we look at the efficiency of our maintenance organization, our gas efficiency, how we're handling our product. And so we're not -- you don't have scrap product, things like that. That's all very sustainable, and we'll continue as we ramp up our improvements into next year. So I would say if you're looking at the quarter. And you take out, kind of, the inventory build, that's timing, it's swings and some of the precious metals, you're looking at probably half of it being sustainable going forward.

Andrew Wong

Okay. That's great. That's helpful. And then just one last one for me is on your cash balance, it's pretty large right now. You're cash flowing pretty well. I know you have some expansion projects and things like that, that you're looking to do, but there's still a lot of cash that's available. So any thoughts on what you'll do with that, maybe just hang on to it for now in case something opportunistically comes up?

Mark Behrman

I think that's probably a good bet that we are looking to grow, and we want to keep some dry powder to see if there are some assets that will come up that fit our portfolio and makes sense for us. The other thing that I think we'll start doing -- and you're right, I think we're a lot more comfortable that we're cash generating now and cash generating fairly well. So I think you'll start to see us execute. We have a stock buyback authorization from the Board. And I think that we'll try and be -- even if it's small every quarter, be buying some stock back in where we think it makes sense and where it's efficient to do that.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question is coming from Rob McGuire from Granite Research.

Robert McGuire

What are you seeing in terms of nitric acid demand just from MDI tariffs and countervailing duties? I'm wondering if that is shaping the market at this point to be a stronger market in the U.S. going forward? And anything you can give us color on there?

Mark Behrman

Damien?

Damien Renwick

Yes. Rob, I think it's -- the market has found a good equilibrium. I mean the duties have been in place for some time now, and the market locally is, I think, has increased production up to where it can sustainably run. And we've seen that through our own offtake. So I think, yes, it's been generally a positive thing. I wouldn't foresee any major changes going forward other than BASF has started the commissioning process for its new facility in Geismar. So I think that's generally good, and that will take nitric acid from the market. So we'll see that growth, but that's been coming for a long time.

Robert McGuire

And then can you elaborate on the variable costs and other costs discussed in the waterfall? Does the $3 million variable represent the SG&A you referenced that will not be there in 2028? And any other color? I'm curious about the $8 million of fixed costs, how you view that in terms of longevity of fixed costs showing up in the waterfall?

Cheryl Maguire

Yes. So, a couple of quick things there, Rob. On the variable cost, it's primarily sulfur. We do have a small sulfuric acid business, as you know. So we do buy sulfur. That gets passed along though in the selling prices. So, net-net, the higher variable costs there are going to be passed along through higher pricing.

The other amount that you referenced on the bridge, that's -- I'll elaborate just a bit more. That's, as I mentioned earlier, related to a couple of different things. One, some precious metals recoveries that we got in the period. We do precious metal recovery pretty routinely. The timing and amounts can vary, though, based on the price of metals and things like that. So we did have some precious metal recoveries.

And then, in addition to that, we are doing a lot of work around the efficiency of our operations in terms of our maintenance teams, handling of product, scrap product, things like that. So that lowers your cost base overall, and that's part of that $8 million. I would say it's about 50%. We should see that going forward, and that should continue to accelerate as we continue on our optimization path.

Mark Behrman

Yes. Just to add on to that. I mean, we've discussed this, Rob, on a couple of calls now about the -- or maybe for a while, even longer than that, about the efficiencies and the cost optimization that we're really focused on. So I think we tend to talk about, which makes sense, increased production and lowering our fixed cost per ton, but a lot of that is not just about increasing our production. It's also now focusing on how do we reduce cost and become more efficient as a business as we've now worked to get our reliability and our production up. So we expect a lot of this to be sustainable, and that's the goal is every year to figure out how we can continue to try and offset inflation and hopefully continue to reduce some costs.

Robert McGuire

That's very helpful color. And then I was wondering just with regards to the fall application season, can you discuss just how it's gone so far, how you anticipate it finishing up? And any other color on what's going on in the present?

Damien Renwick

Yes. Look, we're optimistic that as we move into the bigger chunk of fall application, that will be pretty robust. I think there's a weather watch at the moment. It's been pretty warm and dry in parts, and harvest has been running behind in some parts of the country. So that's -- we're watching that, but we still think that the fall period will be pretty much in line with past seasons. We think there's a lot of incentive there for application given where ammonia prices are at. There was a good chunk of purchases when the corn price rallied back in September. But admittedly, that has softened a little bit in the last few weeks. But I think, generally speaking, the growers will be pretty aggressive and look to set themselves up for spring next year.

Operator

Next question is coming from Vitaly Kononov from Freedom Capital Markets.

Vitaly Kononov

Well, I'd like to ask what does the turnaround calendar look for 2027?

Mark Behrman

Yes. For 2027, we have one turnaround set for our Cherokee, Alabama facility, and that will be in September of next year.

Vitaly Kononov

Okay. And can you just confirm [Technical Difficulty]

Operator

And we have lost Vitaly. We reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over for any further or closing comments.

Mark Behrman

Great. Well, as always, I appreciate everyone who joined the call and listened in on the call. I'm happy to answer any other questions. As a follow-up, if you have them, feel free to call myself or Cheryl. And thank you, and have a great day.

Operator

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.