Cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh quý 3/2026 của United Airlines (UAL): Doanh thu tăng 17,4% khi chi phí nhiên liệu gây áp lực

Các điểm chính

• United Airlines đã báo cáo doanh thu quý 3/2026 đạt 17,9 tỷ USD, tăng 17,4% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái. TRASM tăng 15,9% và yield tăng 17%, trong khi hệ số lấp đầy hành khách giảm nhẹ.
• Thu nhập trên mỗi cổ phiếu phi GAAP đạt 2,54 USD và biên lợi nhuận trước thuế đạt 6,2%. Mức tăng 1,8 tỷ USD chi phí nhiên liệu so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái đã gây áp lực lên khả năng sinh lời.
• United cho biết họ đã bù đắp được 72% chi phí nhiên liệu gia tăng nhờ doanh thu. Ban lãnh đạo vẫn tự tin có thể bù đắp 100% mức tăng chi phí nhiên liệu theo thời gian, dù sẽ có độ trễ.
• Doanh thu từ hạng vé cao cấp, bao gồm Economy Plus, tăng 17%, trong khi doanh thu từ hạng vé phổ thông tăng 18,4%. Doanh thu từ khách doanh nhân, khách du lịch, chương trình khách hàng thân thiết và vận tải hàng hóa tăng lần lượt là 22%, 16%, 17% và 23%.
• Ban lãnh đạo đưa ra dự báo EPS quý 4/2026 từ 0,50 USD đến 1,50 USD, dựa trên giả định giá nhiên liệu tổng hợp vào khoảng 4,80 USD/gallon. TRASM dự kiến sẽ tăng tốc và CASM không bao gồm nhiên liệu sẽ giảm tốc so với quý 3.
• United tiếp tục hướng tới mục tiêu biên lợi nhuận trước thuế hai chữ số, nhưng ban lãnh đạo cho biết việc đạt được mục tiêu đó vào năm 2027 nhiều khả năng cũng đòi hỏi ít nhất một trong ba yếu tố: giá nhiên liệu thấp hơn, công suất toàn ngành giảm hoặc ngành tiếp tục sẵn sàng đánh đổi hệ số lấp đầy lấy yield.

Dữ liệu tài chính cốt lõi

Ban lãnh đạo đã thảo luận các chỉ số tài chính trên cơ sở phi GAAP trừ khi có ghi chú khác.

Kết quả hoạt động kinh doanh và vận hành

Doanh thu từ khách doanh nhân tăng 22%, nhờ yield tăng 15%. Doanh thu từ hợp đồng doanh nghiệp tăng 26%, trong khi hệ số lấp đầy của khách doanh nhân tăng gần 1 điểm phần trăm. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết xu hướng khách doanh nghiệp trong quý 4 tương tự như quý 3, mặc dù hệ số lấp đầy của khách doanh nghiệp vẫn thấp hơn từ 4 đến 5 điểm phần trăm so với mức của năm 2019.

Doanh thu từ khách du lịch tăng 16%. Hệ số lấp đầy của khách du lịch giảm 1,3 điểm phần trăm khi giá vé tăng, điều mà ban lãnh đạo đánh giá là độ co giãn của cầu theo giá còn hạn chế.

Doanh thu từ chương trình khách hàng thân thiết tăng 17%. Khoản thù lao từ Chase tăng 15% và chi tiêu trên thẻ đồng thương hiệu của United tăng 13%. United vẫn đi đúng tiến độ để bổ sung 1 triệu tài khoản đồng thương hiệu mới trong năm 2026. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết họ hy vọng doanh thu từ chương trình khách hàng thân thiết có thể tăng trưởng ổn định ở mức ít nhất 14% đến 15% trong vài năm tới khi các tài khoản mới đi vào ổn định và công ty bổ sung thêm 1 triệu tài khoản nữa vào năm 2027.

Doanh thu vận tải hàng hóa tăng 23%, chủ yếu nhờ yield cao hơn. Thị trường Châu Á tăng trưởng đặc biệt mạnh mẽ, trong khi mức tăng trưởng công suất đường dài toàn cầu của United vẫn còn hạn chế.

Theo khu vực địa lý, Trung Mỹ, Caribe, Florida, Newark và London đã hỗ trợ cho RASM quý 3. RASM tại Florida tăng 26%. Hawaii, Nam Thái Bình Dương và Chicago tăng trưởng chậm hơn, mặc dù ban lãnh đạo dự kiến Hawaii sẽ cải thiện trong quý 4 dù kết quả vẫn chưa đạt mức kỳ vọng.

Về mặt vận hành, United xếp thứ hai về tỷ lệ khởi hành đúng giờ trong quý 3 và đứng đầu trong số 7 hãng hàng không lớn nhất Mỹ vào tháng 7. Hãng hàng không này cũng ghi nhận tỷ lệ hủy ghế theo quý tốt thứ hai và là kết quả quý 3 tốt nhất thời kỳ hậu đại dịch tính theo chỉ số này.

Chiến lược sản phẩm, mạng bay và đội bay

Starlink đóng vai trò trung tâm trong chiến lược doanh thu năm 2027 của United. Hiện tại, khoảng một nửa số chuyến bay khởi hành của United sử dụng máy bay được trang bị Starlink. Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến độ phủ sóng sẽ đạt 87% số chuyến bay khởi hành trước ngày 1 tháng 6 và hiện diện trên toàn bộ đội bay vào cuối năm 2027.

Công ty tin rằng Starlink có thể thu hút khách hàng từ các hệ sinh thái thân thiết đối thủ, đặc biệt là khách du lịch doanh nhân. Tuy nhiên, CEO Scott Kirby cho biết riêng lợi ích RASM liên quan đến Starlink nhiều khả năng sẽ không đủ để mang lại biên lợi nhuận trước thuế hai chữ số vào năm 2027.

United đã chiếm 50% doanh thu hành khách tại Chicago lần đầu tiên vào quý 2/2026. Từ quý 2/2027, ban lãnh đạo dự kiến tăng trưởng công suất nội địa toàn ngành tại sân bay Chicago O’Hare sẽ ở mức tối thiểu do các hạn chế của FAA, trong đó United bị giới hạn ở mức 600 chuyến bay mỗi ngày. Công ty tin rằng các hạn chế này có thể duy trì đến năm 2028 khi dự án xây dựng sân bay tiếp tục diễn ra.

United kế hoạch nhận bàn giao hơn 100 máy bay thân hẹp vào năm 2027. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết việc hiện đại hóa đội bay và tăng kích cỡ máy bay sẽ thay thế các máy bay cũ hơn, kém hiệu quả về nhiên liệu và bảo dưỡng. Chuyến bàn giao Boeing MAX 10 đầu tiên dự kiến vào năm 2027 sau khi dòng máy bay này được cấp chứng nhận.

Dự báo của Ban lãnh đạo

Giả định kế hoạch của United tuân theo đường cong kỳ hạn nhiên liệu thay vì dự báo hàng hóa nội bộ. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết điều này hàm ý giá nhiên liệu tổng hợp năm 2027 ở mức trên 4 USD/gallon, bao gồm khoảng 4,50 USD trong quý 1, 4,20 USD trong quý 2 và 3,70 USD trong quý 4.

Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến mức tăng chi phí sẽ hạ xuống trong quý 4 và giảm đáng kể trong năm 2027. Việc tăng kích cỡ máy bay dự kiến sẽ mang lại lợi thế về chi phí, mặc dù công ty đối mặt với chi phí phân phối, sân bay và các chi phí vận hành khác tăng cao.

Rủi ro và các yếu tố cần theo dõi

Giá nhiên liệu ở mức cao vẫn là áp lực chính trong ngắn hạn. United đã bù đắp được 72% mức tăng chi phí nhiên liệu so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái trong quý 3, nhưng mức tăng giá nhanh chóng đã diễn ra sau khi phần lớn doanh thu của quý đã được ghi nhận.

Công suất toàn ngành là một yếu tố không chắc chắn khác. Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến công suất sẽ tăng tốc nhưng tin rằng các khoản lỗ kéo dài và giá nhiên liệu cao có thể khiến một số hãng hàng không giảm các chuyến bay theo kế hoạch. United cho biết họ sẽ cắt giảm các đường bay hoặc chuyến bay thua lỗ thay vì chỉ quản lý theo một mục tiêu CASM không bao gồm nhiên liệu cố định.

Giá vé cao hơn có thể làm giảm thêm hệ số lấp đầy. Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến sẽ có thêm áp lực lên hệ số lấp đầy trong quý 4 khi United ưu tiên yield và RASM, nhưng cho biết họ không quản lý theo một mục tiêu hệ số lấp đầy cố định.

Lạm phát chi phí vẫn ở mức đáng kể. Theo ban lãnh đạo, chi phí sân bay đã tăng 60% kể từ sau đại dịch, trong khi chi phí phân phối, bảo dưỡng và các chi phí liên quan đến động cơ cũng đang gia tăng.

Thời điểm đạt mục tiêu biên lợi nhuận trước thuế hai chữ số của United vẫn chưa chắc chắn. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết việc đạt được mục tiêu vào năm 2027 nhiều khả năng cũng đòi hỏi giá nhiên liệu thấp hơn, công suất toàn ngành giảm hoặc kỷ luật định giá của toàn ngành được duy trì, bên cạnh các sáng kiến doanh thu riêng của United.

Điểm tin Hỏi & Đáp với Chuyên gia Phân tích

• Thanh khoản: United đã mở rộng hạn mức tín dụng quay vòng từ 3 tỷ USD lên 5 tỷ USD và gia hạn thời gian đáo hạn đến năm 2031. Ban lãnh đạo có kế hoạch giảm thanh khoản xuống 18 tỷ USD vào cuối năm và dự kiến việc chuyển dịch sang thanh khoản không tài trợ sẽ tiết kiệm khoảng 70 triệu USD lãi vay và phí hàng năm. Kirby cho biết đợt tăng này không nhằm mục đích hỗ trợ hoạt động M&A.
• Hiệu quả kinh tế từ chương trình thân thiết: Ban lãnh đạo dự định chờ cho đến khi United gia hạn thỏa thuận với Chase trước khi cung cấp thêm thông tin công bố về chương trình khách hàng thân thiết, đồng thời lưu ý rằng thỏa thuận hiện tại không phản ánh hiệu quả kinh tế hiện đại.
• Quyền lực định giá: United cho biết giá vé hiện tại xét theo giá trị thực vẫn thấp hơn mức của năm 2019. Ban lãnh đạo tin rằng lạm phát chi phí toàn ngành hỗ trợ yield cao hơn, ngay cả khi hệ số lấp đầy giảm.
• Kiểm soát chi phí: Công ty tiếp tục hướng tới mục tiêu tăng trưởng CASM không bao gồm nhiên liệu từ 2% đến 3% vào năm 2027 và những năm tiếp theo, nhờ hỗ trợ từ máy bay lớn hơn, đồng thời nhấn mạnh rằng biên lợi nhuận được ưu tiên hơn các mục tiêu chi phí đơn vị.
• Các mức giá vé phân hạng: Ban lãnh đạo mô tả tỷ lệ nâng hạng vé sớm là rất khả quan và cho biết United sẽ tiếp tục hoàn thiện các sản phẩm phân hạng cũng như mở rộng sang các khoang bổ sung.
• Hợp nhất ngành: Kirby từ chối đưa ra thêm bình luận về khả năng hợp nhất ngành và nhắc lại rằng United dự kiến sẽ đạt biên lợi nhuận hai chữ số trên cơ sở độc lập.

Toàn văn Biên bản Cuộc họp Báo cáo Kết quả Kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to United Airlines Holdings' Earnings Conference Call for the Third Quarter 2026. My name is Regina, and I will be your conference facilitator today. Following the initial remarks from management, we will open the lines for questions. [Operator Instructions] This call is being recorded and is copyrighted. Please note that no portion of the call may be recorded, transcribed or rebroadcast without the company's permission. Your participation implies your consent to our recording of this call. If you do not agree with these terms, simply drop off the line. I will now turn the presentation over to your host for today's call, Kristina Edwards, Managing Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Kristina Munoz

Thank you, Regina. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to United's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Yesterday, we issued our earnings release, which is available on our website at ir.united.com. Information in yesterday's release and the remarks made during this conference call may contain forward-looking statements which represents the company's current expectations, which are based upon information currently available to the company. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. Please refer to our earnings release, Form 10-K and 10-Q and other reports filed with the SEC by United Airlines Holdings and United Airlines for a more thorough description of these factors.

Unless otherwise noted, we will be discussing our financial metrics on a non-GAAP basis on this call, and historical operational metrics will exclude pandemic years of 2020 to 2022. Please refer to the related definitions and reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures at the end of our earnings release. Joining us today to discuss our results here in Houston and outlook are Chief Executive Officer, Scott Kirby; President, Brett Hart; Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, Andrew Nocella; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mike Leskinen. We also have other members of the executive team on the line available for tuning. And now I'd like to the call over to Scott.

Scott Kirby

Thanks, Kristina. Thank you all for joining us on the call today. It's been an eventful year, but it's once again given us the opportunity to demonstrate how de-commoditizing and becoming a true brand loyal airline with a structural change for United that gives us resilience in volatile times, and I expect it will lead to strong results in a normalized environment. We've built an airline that our employees are proud of and they're delivering and have made United the leading airline around the globe. Before I start, I want to congratulate Boeing on the certification of the MAX 10. It's fantastic aircraft, and we look forward to taking our first delivery next year. On this call, we'll talk a lot about 2026 in the current environment, but I want to take a couple of minutes to focus on 2027 and specifically answer the question, what will it take for us to reach our goal of double-digit pretax margins next year? .

We live and breathe no excuses. And the 1 thing you'll never hear us say or use as a planning excuse is if it weren't for fuel. Instead, we're planning for and actually expect fuel to remain elevated for all of 2027. It also appears that industry capacity will accelerate. Obviously, either of those things could change and get us to double-digit pretax margins, but we're not counting on it. So what would it take to get there in a higher fuel and capacity environment. To be blunt, even though we're outperforming, the traditional way of looking at it would be hard. Though in fairness, I've been pleasantly surprised at the industry's ability this year to raise yields and pass through much of the increase in fuel prices. So it's possible that airlines will continue to focus on yield at the expense of load factor and that alone could get us to double-digit margins next year. But we aren't going to assume that will happen. You've heard me say in the past that hope is not a strategy. Instead, we're focused on the things we can control. And those are the big investments we've made over the past several years in product, service and technology.

And 1 of those things is Starlink, a new and truly differentiating RASM tailwind in 2027. Today, about half of United departures are on Sterling equipped aircraft and we offer more Starlink flights than the entire U.S. airline industry combined. We currently expect to reach 61% of departures by the end 87% by June 1 and available fleet-wide by the end of 2027. Importantly, we're also seeing evidence that Starlink is motivating factor for customers to choose which airline they fly. That's why we launched a new tracker so people can check their flight has it. It can follow along as we offset our fleet. It's hard to get brand loyal customers to switch airlines. And while it's mostly anecdotal, we're seeing 2 important things happen. One, customers who are brand loyal to other airlines and have flown them for years, switched to United flight solely because of Sterling. And two, once they try us, they stick with us because they also experienced great service and all the nose to tail things we've invested in for years like new aircraft, larger seatback screens in every class of service, oversized bins, technology like ConnectionSaver, and a mobile app that's dramatically better than anything they've experienced before.

We know that eventually, high-speed, low earth orbit WiFi will be industry standard for everyone. But for 2027 and really 2028, we are well on our way to being the only global U.S. airline with Starlink at scale. So a lot of new customers are going to try us. It's a huge head start, and we're going to press our advantage wherever we can. And while others are just ramping up on their LEO WiFi installations will be under our next wave of product and technology to sustain our lead and further deepen the competitive moats around our business. Our mission will be to show new customers the very best of United and then earn their long-term loyalty by demonstrating that we're the #1 airline in everything else as well. With both fuel and industry capacity expected to be elevated next year, will that share shift happened fast enough to get us to double-digit pretax margins, while I do expect a meaningful RASM tailwind from StarLink in 2027. To be honest, it probably isn't enough its own.

To get there in 2027, we probably also need at least 1 of the 3 following things to happen: lower fuel, lower industry capacity or a continued wellness for the industry to trade load factor for yield. Regardless of what happens on how big the RASM benefits are in 2027, however, our series of big customer investments, including Starlink and some big new ideas we haven't even announced yet but are coming in the not-too-distant future, having merged as a new tailwind to a plan that was already working at United. And we expect to exit 2027 with more brand customers than we otherwise would have had and expect that to lead to higher RASM in 2027 and beyond. And with that, I'll pass it over to Brett.

Brett Hart

Thank you, Scott, and good morning. First, I want to thank all of our United employees for their tremendous work throughout the quarter. Our team demonstrated exceptional resilience and adaptability, working together to restore our operation and get our customers to their destinations. United ranked second and on-time departures for the third quarter with United being first among the top 7 U.S. carriers in July. We also delivered our second best quarter, best third quarter post-pandemic seat cancellation rate in United history, ranking first amongst the 3 largest U.S. carriers for the quarter. Ultimately, the strength of our operation is reflected in our customer satisfaction results. In the third quarter, we saw our highest quarterly NPS score since 2022 amidst record passenger growth. .

Our people remain at the center of everything we do. And in August, we completed the first phase of our expanded pilot training center in Denver, increasing our capacity to train up to 860 pilots per day with 86 flight simulation training devices, 52 of which are full motion simulators. This investment supports both our existing workforce and our ability to develop the talent needed for United's future. Transportation Secretary Duffy, and FAA administrator Bedford, announced that they are seeking an additional $30 billion in improvements for our nation's air traffic control system, a safer and more resilient ATC system will benefit United's customers and operations, and we're actively engaged with the administration in both sides of the aisle in Congress to advocate for this much-needed funding. And it's especially exciting to be here in Houston today as we celebrate a major milestone in the transformation of Terminal B at George Bush Intercontinental Airport.

This project represents a significant investment in 1 of our most important hubs, and we believe it will fundamentally improve the experience for millions of customers traveling through Houston. We're making significant investments across our hub network, including at Washington Dulles, where we're also advancing a major airport transformation and expect to open a new concourse with 14 additional gates next month. Together, these investments reflect our continued execution of our strategy to build a stronger airline position for long-term profitable growth. With that, I'll turn it over to Andrew.

Andrew Nocella

Thanks, Brett. United's top line Q3 revenues increased by 17.4% year-over-year to $17.9 billion. TRASM increased by 15.9%, with yields up 17%. Passenger load factor fell modestly. Consumers and businesses have been accepting price increases, which we believe is a result of fairs lag in the rest of inflation along with other aspects of travel costs for many years. Looking at revenues by cabin. In Q3, premium revenue, including Economy Plus increased 17% on a 2.5% increase in capacity. Premium PRASM increased 14.1%. Nonpremium revenue increased 18.4% on a 0.5 point increase in capacity, with RASM up 17.8%. Against the backdrop of strong premium cabin revenue growth, it was nice to see standard economy cabin RASM up. Recall that in Q1 of 26, it was the first time in 12 quarters that economy cabin RASMs were positive. In other words, you'll still have a long way to go to catch up with inflation, whether measured before or after the pandemic.

We expect economy RASM to outpace premium once again in Q4. With net revenues by travel purpose Business revenue increased by 22% in the quarter, with yields up 15%. Contracted business revenues increased by 26%. Premium business continues to be strong, with load factors in the premium cabins up a little over 0.5 point year-over-year and up 3.6 points since 2019. Business load factor in the quarter increased by almost 1 point. While StarLink is important to all of our customers, it is critical for our business customers, which we believe will be a key driver of revenue and share growth in 2027. Leisure revenues were up 16%, with stronger year-over-year yield gains than business traffic. Leisure load factor fell modestly by 1.3 points, which we view as a small amount of elasticity given higher ticket prices a trade we would make every day. Cargo revenues increased by 23% year-over-year with most of the increase occurring in yields as our global long-haul capacity growth was minimal in the quarter.

Loyalty revenue had another strong quarter, up 17%. Remuneration from Chase was up 15%, and portfolio spend on our co-brand cards was up 13%. We remain on pace to generate 1 million new accounts in 2026, a material increase from 2025, thanks to changes to MileagePlus along with strong marketing from both United and Chase. I've talked about United's efforts in the past to deseasonalize our business by improving the relative RASM performance of Q3. We made substantial progress in Q3 of 2026 on this goal. Fuel costs may make our progress hard to see, but we believe these recent results are another milestone towards our goal of reaching double-digit pretax margins as we move forward into a more normalized fuel environment.

My goal in absolute RASM is Q1, 2 and 4 to be similar each year but a slight reduction in Q3 given less business traffic that travels during the summer. We can tailor our network and capacity to achieve this goal over time. We expect RASM and yield increase sequentially from Q3 to Q4. Selling yields have been up in the very high teens in recent weeks, including some weeks north of 20%. However, we know we need to achieve more to recapture fuel costs as we see them today. For a little more color on RASM, strength in Q3, Central America, the Caribbean, Florida, Newark and London were strong RASM tailwind tailwinds in the quarter. In fact, Florida RASMs were up 26% in the quarter alone. Hawaii, the South Pacific and Chicago were RASM relative laggards in the quarter. Hawaii will have a better Q4, but will still underperform.

A quick note on Chicago. Starting in the second quarter of 2027, we expect minimal domestic industry capacity growth at Ohar due to the FAA capacity constraints where the growth in total flights is capped. United is capped at 600 daily flights, and we think maybe -- that may be the likely outcome well into 2028 at this point. United's revenue share in Chicago continues to climb as we win more brand loyal customers. United had a key milestone in Q2 of 2026, capturing 50% of Chicago-based passengers revenue for the first time. Congratulations to the entire United team for delivering this amazing achievement. Beyond Chicago, we also saw share gains in all remaining United hub cities with the latest data released by the DOT. We believe these share gains will increase further in 2027 as StarLink becomes commonplace across all United lights. As we think about what changes from today to the end of 2027 for United, I wanted to give you a few highlights. We'll continue the efforts to deseasonalize our RASM production. We're excited to reestablish JFK as the destination in 2027. We will largely complete our United connectivity goals in our Mid-Con hubs by the summer of '27.

We'll turn more of our attention towards our coastal gateways and international expansion in 2027 and beyond. We'll open amazing new terminal facilities in Houston tomorrow and in Dallas in just a few weeks. We'll also open numerous United Clubs. Our newest club right here in Houston, Texas opens tomorrow, which will not only be United's largest cloud but the largest in the Americas. By the end of '27, we expect to finish installing StarLink on all our jets, both mainline and Express. We'll finish installation of our interior signature cabins, including seatback entertainment for all large overhead bins and new Lighten by the end of '27. We'll also grow premium capacity faster than main cabin capacity as we introduced the A321 Coastliner and XLR at scale, we believe no other airline is contemplating. We'll launch Relaxo and Economy Plus open middle seat extending premium products to all cabins as we elevate the experience in all cabins for all passengers.

We'll continue to refine our product segmentation and retailing with the introduction of tiered fares across our network and various product types. Again, we'll add more than 1 million new co-brand accounts as we enter the sunset years of our existing Chase agreement, and we aim to recapture 100% of the price of oil in 2027. At United, we will continue to stay focused on our consistent strategy and path recognizing that our relative results show our plan is working. Our goal is double-digit pretax margins, and we remain steadfast in our commitment to deliver them. And with that, I will pass it over to Mike. Mike?

Michael Leskinen

Thanks, Andrew, and thank you to the entire United team for the tremendous effort as we manage through a high fuel cost environment, an environment in which most of the industry will lose money. Our third quarter results reinforce why United is on the right path and demonstrate how much progress we made learning brand loyal customers, which are critical to delivering resilient and durable earnings. In the third quarter, we were deliberate about where we deployed capacity and continued to thoughtfully invest in the business. We remain determined to be -- we remain determined to achieve double-digit pretax margins and an investment-grade credit rating. Our ability to pass on higher fuel costs through higher ticket prices stronger than ever before and demonstrates how much United and the industry has transformed. .

In the third quarter, we delivered earnings per share of $2.54 and a pretax margin of 6.2%. Earnings per share were within our guidance range. Fuel prices accelerated in the quarter and drove a $1.8 billion increase in expense year-over-year. We recaptured 72% of the increase in fuel expense as much of the increase versus our guidance occurred in the period. And most of our revenue was already on the books. We're highly confident in our ability to recapture 100% of increases in our fuel cost, but with a lag. Our CASM ex was up 7.8% and a higher rate now captures the full run rate of expense from our flight attendant deal. We also incurred the impact of close-in capacity reductions. We expect Q3 to be the high watermark for CASM ex and expense growth will step down in the fourth quarter and then step materially lower in 2027. Outside of the impact from closing capacity reductions, our CASM ex trajectory has remained consistent with our expectations at the start of the year.

I want to thank our team for their diligent work to keep us on track in such an inflationary environment. Looking ahead, we expect fourth quarter earnings per share to be between $0.50 and $1.50 assuming an all-in fuel price per gallon of approximately $4.80 based on last Friday's forward curve. Underlying this guidance is a CASM ex that will decelerate in a TRASM that is accelerating compared to the third quarter. This is a good setup as we exit the year. We are forecasting that our fuel recapture in the fourth quarter will be similar to the third quarter given the continued increase in fuel prices. This is lower than the 100% we were anticipating due to the rapid spike in jet fuel prices late in the third quarter.

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $17.7 billion of liquidity, including our undrawn revolver and paid down approximately $1 billion of debt. We raised $900 million of new debt that was priced at a fixed rate equivalent in the low 5% range. Additionally, we upsized our revolving credit facility last week from $3 billion of unfunded liquidity to $5 billion. and we extended the maturity 2 more years to 2031. We intend to reduce gross debt by the same amount as we target $18 billion of liquidity at year-end. We expect this shift to unfunded liquidity to save approximately $70 million of annual interest and fees. This is currently the largest airline revolving credit facility in history, and yet another proof point of the strength of our business and our balance sheet.

Rising oil prices have impacted our near-term metrics, with our net leverage at 2.4 turns However, we remain determined to achieve investment-grade metrics and hopefully also ratings next year. We continue to target net leverage of less than 2 turns. Our financial performance continues to demonstrate the strength of United's business model and our ability to execute through industry shock events. We can't control oil prices or geopolitics, but we can control how we run our airline. And in an environment like this, the gap between airlines that have invested for the long term and those that have it has become even more apparent. While our relative margin has been industry leading, we remain focused on achieving absolute double-digit pretax margins as our top financial goal. We will continue making investments that further our competitive advantage and it will lead to those double-digit pretax margins. I'll now turn it to Kristina to kick off the Q&A.

Phần hỏi đáp

Savanthi Syth

Thank you, Mike. We will now take questions from the analyst meet. Please limit yourself to 1 question and if needed, 1 related follow-up question. Regina, please describe the procedure to ask a question. .

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from the line of Mike Linenberg with Deutsche Bank. .

Michael Linenberg

One. I'm staring at $5 jet fuel and hard to believe that you're still on track to do $3 billion of pretax profit or more this year. So Obviously, United has clearly cracked the code here. But a question directly to Mike. Look, as best as I can tell, among publicly traded airlines, I think you had the highest liquidity position of anyone, and yet you upsized it by another $2 billion. And so if my math serves me right, I presume your liquidity is right around $20 billion, unless you've paid down debt recently to quarter end. Why the step up? And is it -- because you already had a lot? Is it just being poised for opportunity. I mean we know that things break at $5 jet fuel. Talk about like the philosophy behind having so much cash? .

Michael Leskinen

Yes. Thanks, Mike. It's a great question. And it does create optionality, but we are cost conscious. And so if you think about when we raised our debt and where we're investing the liquidity, the cost of carry is relatively low right now, number one. Number two, the upsizing the revolver is going to allow us to carry that liquidity in a more efficient way. So I said in my prepared remarks, but let me repeat, we intend to bring that liquidity to $18 billion at year-end, $20 billion is too much. And so we'll bring that down. That's going to save us over $70 million in interest and fees. And as we earn in an investment-grade credit metric, we'll reevaluate the level of liquidity. But we're comfortable with this. We're an industry that asteroids hit more well prepared for lots of events, and it is a relatively low cost of insurance to carry the extra liquidity.

Scott Kirby

And Mike, I'll just quickly add, if people think we did that for optionality to M&A activity that is absolutely 100% not the rationale. It's say, $70 million to get to the same liquidity targets we had anyway. It's simple.

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Tom Fitzgerald with TD Cowen.

Thomas Fitzgerald

Just curious for Andrew, you've mentioned a lot of momentum on the loyalty side of the business. And I just kind of -- been kind of running the low double-digit rate the last couple of years, but a million new co-brand accounts annualizing mix -- and then some of the other benefits of Starlink, -- you made a lot of leadership changes on loyalty, carioconnected as well. Just I guess long-winded way of saying, could we see like that other revenue line item accelerate maybe in the low teens potentially next year?

Andrew Nocella

I think we hope so. The -- as you pointed out, the milestone of 1 million new accounts, as those accounts mature and spend more next year and the year after, that's how that calculation works, as I think we're all aware of. And so we'll do 1 million accounts this year. We'll get those accounts spending we'll get them upgraded to higher credit cards to club card in particular. And then we'll do another 1 million accounts next year. And that's a big investment in making that number in terms of total loyalty revenue increase, hopefully in the mid-teens, at least 14% or 15% consistently for the next few years or maybe even higher.

Thomas Fitzgerald

That's really helpful. And then I guess, squeeze in a quick follow-up just on the tiered fare category. Just curious, early learnings with that and maybe how you could think about that tailwind into next year, specifically around buy-up to basic business.

Andrew Nocella

Yes. I will say that we are really pleased by the launch of the tier products, and we continue to expand them and are doing a little bit more in the next few weeks. I think it's been great for our customers. It provides more options for them and great for the airline as well. We've redesigned united.com specifically to sell them effectively and we'll continue to refine our approach on that, that I think has even more upside. The buy-up rates are incredibly high. Consumers know what they're buying, and we disclose it very carefully. This has worked for years. It started with basic economy, a little more than 10 years ago. We've learned a lot of lessons on how to do this. And I just think it's been really monumental for us more so than people realize, and we're glad to pave the way on this. It was a very good idea, and we look forward to refining it. And if you recall, the early days of Basic Economy took a lot of refinements and I think we're just at the early days of this phenomena in the other cabins as well.

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies. .

Sheila Kahyaoglu

I wanted to ask about the fleet maybe just based on delivery slipping out of '26 in your view for higher for longer fuel and accelerating capacity. How are you thinking about 2027 deliveries and retirements. And maybe as a follow-up to that, your specific plans on MAX deliveries across the 9 and 10 models in '27.

Scott Kirby

Sheila, look, we're really excited and I want to congratulate Boeing for the certification of the MAX 10. The MAX 10 is a big part of our upgauging strategy. It's going to be a very competitive aircraft for our network. So very excited about taking delivery of that. As we look into 2027, rather, I think we're going to take about 2 body aircraft a month, and we'll take over 100 narrow-body aircraft. So we have some pent-up demand in our fleet with older aircraft that are maintenance inefficient, fuel inefficient. And so regardless of where we end up the amount of capacity we end up flying there is an opportunity for us to modernize the fleet and to upgauge the fleet that has really strong economics. So we're excited to accelerate that rate of delivery on both narrow and wide.

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Conor Cunningham with Melius Research.

Conor Cunningham

Maybe I'll push back a little bit on that opening statement for you, Scott. Just the bare thesis that's out there is that you already had low fuel, you had structural change in the industry. that brought industry supply super low for a long period of time. And now you obviously feel has spiked. -- industry supply is ramping into that. You're still seeing competitors discount close in. Like I'm trying to feel comfortable about the long-term double-digit pretax margin? It just feels like tweaks in supply don't get you there anymore. So just if you could just take the picture a little bit better. I think that would be helpful.

Scott Kirby

I'll do it best. So I'll disaggregate it into unique United and industry. Unique United, we've been winning share kind of everywhere we fly at all of our hubs for a while now. And yes, pretty good anecdotes already. I mean it's mostly anecdotal now, but that Starlink is causing customers to move. And what I hear for those people is to get on the #1 thing I hear is the Pick United flood, there's some other hub somewhere else or fickle or someone else. -- they pick a United flight, and they say, "Oh my God, the app is amazing. Why doesn't need the other airline have that? And then the people are nice, and they wind up switching. So I don't know I don't think that's going to happen fast enough personally in 2027 to get us to double digits without some other structural macro changes, as I said in my opening comments, but it's a big tailwind. And so that's sort of unique to United.

On the structural level, boy, I happen to think that oil prices are going to -- jet fuel prices are going to be high all the way through next year. There have been an awful lot of airlines say managing their business as if it weren't for fuel, which in the short term is a way to dissolve yourself of responsibility and accountability. But I don't think that's going to last. So really, what I think is going to -- I don't know the timing. I think this is more a question of when than if. But if oil prices stay high, like I think they will through next year, I find it low probability that every airline runs out what their current capacity plans are for the full year.

I know they're all going to get on calls and say, -- but once they get an activist investor coming in or something else like that happens, like change is your mind in a hurry. And I just -- like the losses would be -- so the 6 to 10 years airlines are going to lose money this year. And if all was higher next year, like it just -- the stress is building. So I think there are going to be supply changes. Actually being successful as an airline is really simple 1 golden rule, don't fly places that lose money. We'll at simple -- very few people follow it, but there's going to be less loss-making point. I think by the end of next year, I don't know when it's going to happen. But I think at some point next year, these calls are going to be transitioned to 2028 is going to be a really good year because structural -- more structural changes happen and structural change has happened this year. The fact that Spirit went away a reprieve from some airlines for making hard decisions, began a REPREVE. But there's other airlines that are next up on the firing line, and I think changes are covering.

Conor Cunningham

Okay. Maybe kicking over to Mike. It's been difficult to model costs. And I know it's not just United thing, it's more of an industry problem. So industry headwind. If you could just maybe I know you're talking about decelerating growth into next year. But if you could just give any color around '27 and how you view cost. I think just people are trying to get comfortable with that side of the equation as we determine where fares go in general.

Michael Leskinen

Yes. Thanks, Scott. And I think it's a reasonable question to ask. This team has done an incredible job of managing the inflationary pressures we faced in 2026. And so I will repeat what I said in my script were it not for the voluntary reductions in capacity, our 2026 CASM ex is tracking exactly where we expected it to at the beginning of the year. So given the inflationary pressures, given what we've seen from peers, I think that's an incredible result. As we look to 2027, we are going to continue to target 2% to 3% CASM ex. We are definitely facing inflationary pressures. One of the biggest inflationary pressures we're facing is from increasing distribution costs because as fares go up, the distribution costs as a percentage of fares. We're facing airport costs that since the pandemic have gone up by 60%. So there's lots of work to do to run a more efficient airline to offset those inflationary pressures. .

At United, we're going to have a unique tailwind in increasing gauge growth in 2027. So we're going to work hard to live within that 2% to 3% CASM ex in '27 and beyond, but we do have work cut out for us. The last thing I will say is in environments like this where fuel prices spike, we're going to have no hesitation to cut capacity of flights that are losing money because we're not managing CASM ex. We're managing the margin. So we're doing a great job relative to CASM ex. We're not changing the goals. The goals are going to remain aggressive. But make no mistake, we're managing the margin, not CASM ex.

Operator

Next question will come from the line of Andrew Didora with Bank of America. .

Andrew Didora

I guess my first one for Andrew or Scott. I guess, you talked about this higher for longer fuel environment in 2027. I guess where do you think industry capacity should shake out next year? And how does United's growth fit into that overall industry backdrop? .

Andrew Nocella

I think Scott gave the macro answer to that question largely. So I don't think I want to repeat it. For United, we're very conscious of our capacity. I think about it every day. and look at every flight in every market, and we are nimble, and we will make the right decision and we'll make the right decision for 2027 as well as we usually do. I think we have a very good track record on this. .

Andrew Didora

Okay. And I guess second 1 just quickly for Mike. Obviously, there was a loyalty transaction out in the market a couple of months ago with Air Canada. -- that I think shed a little bit more light on the value of that business. I don't -- I know you don't need to do that type of deal. But I think in the past, you've sometimes like what are the idea of providing a little bit more disclosure just to give investors a little bit more color on that business. Have you -- any new thoughts post that transaction?

Scott Kirby

Thanks, Andrew. I love the question. And look, we were the first airline to use the loyalty -- our loyalty program as collateral. -- in the pandemic. So I want to complement the I want to complement the Air Canada team on an incredible transaction. I think it highlights the value of these loyalty programs, the tremendous value that frankly we're not seeing in our share prices. That said, here at United, as Andrew has shared, we are getting close to the sunset of our existing contract with our partner, number one. Number two, given that it makes sense, given that it's about the sunset and given that it's -- it's a historic contract that it doesn't have modern economics. It makes much more sense for us to wait and get the new contract and then provide the additional disclosure. So for now, holding pattern, but Air Canada did an amazing job of highlighting the value that exists in these programs and particularly here at United.

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Jamie Baker with JPMorgan.

Jamie Baker

So Scott, since you brought up the C word you've been vocal this consolidation, what do you think -- you had focal about not engaging in M&A. You've spoken about JetBlue specifically, given the -- among other things, 10% to 15% margin gap between yourselves and them. And a preference to go big I believe that was your turn when it comes to consolidation. There's been no movement at American Board in terms of regime change but we've seen JetBlue's market cap get decimated here. We've got $2 billion of loyalty bonds trading at whatever, half of par. Obviously, it's such subject, but why shouldn't United be a potential solution for JetBlue as they ponder a restructuring?

Scott Kirby

Well, I I've done enough talking this year, I think, about the Sword as you say. And I've done enough talking to be newsworthy in the last 48 hours. Actually, I did an interview we newer I'm not going to grant I have nothing new to add on that. Like we're focused on -- you can hear from our call, you can hear from our tone, we feel great about what we're doing here at United. I wish oil prices were lower in the short term. I'm really proud of the team, the fact that we're able to be doing this well in this environment. I think it is a matter of when, not if we get to double-digit margins on a stand-alone basis. We just have -- and I think, by the way, Starlink, is it is the second -- schedule is number one. It is the clear #2 in choice when people are choosing an airline, to me.

It is a significant advantage we're going to have for the next couple of years. And so we're really focused on. My message to the team is, we're going to have new customers trying us from other airlines. And our mission, I'm going to do it with a bunch of employees here in an hour is make sure they know that United is the best airline in the country for them to fly and get them to be long-term customers. I would say, by the way, those on the call that are listening, at some point that fly other airlines at some point in the next 12 months when you find yourself on the second or third United flight because of Starlink and you find yourself taking the application from the plate for the credit card you realize that you've switched airlines. You will get a toper, youwill have upgraded your airline and your stock investment idea.

Jamie Baker

Okay. Fair enough. And then, Andrew, just quickly, can you expand on your earlier Chicago comments? I know you don't want to give specific in terms of hub profitability. But on a fuel-neutral basis, -- can you help us think about the shape of how margins have evolved there? And what you expect to occur after the April date that you identified a few minutes ago. Not talking absolute just looking at how to change ex fuel, if you will, in Chicago profitability it looks.

Andrew Nocella

Look, I'll start off with -- and looking backwards at our RASM results in Q3, I don't think you saw any speed bumps, right? And looking forward to our outlook for Q4 I think our numbers also show there are no speed bumps. But that being said, there is a bit more capacity in Chicago than normal year-over-year. That headwind, I think, turns into a tailwind as of April, given way the FAA is managing capacity at the airport. Overall, I'm not going to put a lot of people in this fire, but I would tell you that the RASM premium we have to Brand X is about 14 points in our CASM premium, our CASM is better by 3 to 4 points. So I'll leave you to do all the economics and that, that results in, but that's the latest data that we watch it daily. But overall, I think the macro point is it's a minor thing in our Q3, Q4 numbers. And as we enter the bulk of next year, I think Chicago becomes a tailwind as of April and beyond. .

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley. .

Ravi Shanker

In the prepared remarks, you spoke about the seasonalization efforts in 3Q bearing fruit and potentially that extending to other quarters as well. Can you just remind us what that means for how we think about the 4Q to 1Q walk on maybe key KPIs probably leading with capacity? .

Andrew Nocella

Yes. So first of all, going back to Q3. I mean I've been disappointed over a period of years that Q3's relative financial results have been disappointed versus Q2, which has gotten incredibly strong. June, in particular, is an amazing month now, much more than it had been in the past. And August is the opposite of that, I think, as kids go back to school earlier. And so we've been working really hard to make sure that we can get to a path where our Q3 earnings are at par with the other quarters. For Q4 and Q1, we had a lot of work on Q1 coming out of the pandemic. particularly as business traffic evolved. And I think that's come a long, long way, particularly with our Atlantic RASM and relative to profitability as I said earlier in the opening, we would like for the RASM performance in all the quarters to be the same other than Q3, where given there's just less premium business traffic we think that should be a little bit lower.

Again, that number was masked by fuel, I think, in Q3 of this year. But that's our goal. And deseasonalizing the business creates a lot more ability to fly and even schedule almost year round, which creates other cost efficiencies, which we think is the right way to go, and that's what we're evolving to as quickly as we can.

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Brandon Oglenski with Barclays. .

Brandon Oglenski

So Scott or Andrew, I think you both mentioned potentially trading load factor for yields or maybe dialing that in and revenue management systems as that something that United is maybe considering even more looking into 2027.

Andrew Nocella

Look, I think it's obvious where the price of fuel is. It's obvious where our total CASM is. And it's also, therefore, mathematically obvious what yields need to do. Do I expect there'll be some impacts on load factor. There was a tiny bit in Q3. There'll probably be a little bit more in Q4. But we know where yields need to be for United and we're taking all the appropriate actions to get them there, so we can recover 100% of fuel. And I do expect that, that means slightly lower load factors. And I'll just reiterate, we don't manage to a fixed load factor target. That's not how it works. -- on how it should work. We managed to maximize our RASM in our long-term margin goal. And if load factors fall, they are incredibly high, by the way, relative to all of the past in my experience in this business, that's perfectly okay.

Brandon Oglenski

I appreciate that, Andrew. And I guess what people are a little bit worried about here is, obviously, if you look at quarter domestic capacity, both United and your large competitor, American are up about 8% to 9% domestically. And obviously, into a higher jet fuel environment. I mean can you just talk to us about like the classic prisoner's dilemma between this. And I think, Andrew, highlighted the relative performance in Chicago. But I guess, how does this ultimately resolve? And can this be a more sustainable long-term outlook competitively?

Andrew Nocella

Well, I'm not going to talk about the other guy in that level of detail. I can tell you that we're winning share. We win share in all our hubs, not just Chicago, by the way. And we have an amazing competitive tool out there with StarLink to help us monetize that more even for the next year. And I'll also point out, why StarLink is so important to us is in this unique advantage. -- is that we have a fair -- our hubs are contested much more than the average legacy airline. And therefore, there are a lot more splitters that split their business between airlines. And in fact, there are a few people in our hubs. I don't know exactly why that give a higher share of wallet to the other airlines. And we're going to reverse that next year and gain more share. So we feel really good about the unique aspects for where we're going.

For Chicago, whether I like it or not, the FAs impose caps and those are a reality, and that's going to change the game a bit. And we like our advantage in Chicago. It's a good advantage to have, and we will work it and continue to push it. So I like our position, quite frankly. -- in Chicago for the short run and the long run. But I do think the competitive heat as maybe you would describe it, is going to be different for them a vast majority of 2027 just because of the conditions placed upon us by the FAA and also because of our gains of share because of StarLink.

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of John Godin with Citigroup. .

John Godyn

Scott, I just wanted to ask another 1 about the industry structure and really just kind of get your perspective. You talked about a structure where there's a small cluster of airlines that are succeeding, executing, winning, et cetera, in a separate group that are struggling with -- when we look at that group that's struggling, generally oversimplifying their turnaround plans are usually something like we're going to add some premium seats. We're going to change them fees and fares. We're going to add a couple of bells and whistles for the passengers, and we're going to double or triple our earnings in 2 or 3 years, which, of course, is way faster than United did when it was doing its turnaround, you're somebody who's actually quarterbacked a lot of these turnaround successfully. I'm just curious what your reaction is when you see other airlines that have never done it, simplifying it in that way.

Scott Kirby

Well, thanks. You described it kindly. I'll describe it, I think, more actively. I'm not meaning to be mean. I look at those strategies as hope is our strategy. And it's not going to work. The reason it doesn't work is because it's not bells and whistles. You use the term beltless put a couple of bells and whistles on it and have you get just put a first class in. You can't just put a seat that has a door or whatever. You just can't match selectively some of the things that have been done. It's the whole package. And we have the best product, I think, in the Western world now on our aircraft, and there's been some recognition of that from others. That's the easiest part to match for another airline to match the product. It's really important, but it's the easiest part to match. The rest of the stuff is harder. We are the best -- we're the most reliable airline in each 1 of our hubs.

Newark is now the most reliable on the 3 New York airports. We invested an incredible amount in technology to do that, and that's why we operate in the hardest places in the country. That's why we're #1. That's hard to replicate. Technology, incredibly hard to replicate. I don't think people appreciate how big the technology advantage is. If you fly United, you can see it in the app, but the app is the tip of the iceberg. We started 6 years ago program, hundreds of millions of dollars that we spent to get our technology moved off of legacy platforms and systems and into modern programs, not just moving into the cloud, but moving it to a modern platform. And so we can move fast and do things that others simply can't do because we did that at the time, there was no ROI on that because we didn't know what we'd do with it, but it enables us to do incredible.

So our technology lead is massive versus -- I don't know who's the second best airline in the world, but it is massive versus all of them. And then finally, service. When you create an airline that your employees are proud of and that's my job is get our employees inspired to believe in united and they do, and they are delivering for customers. And so you put that whole package together -- that's what being premium. It's all of the above, like you can't -- like the analogy that I -- you can't just like take a Four-Seasons room, copy the room, put it in a hotel 6 and expect it to be Four Seasons. You need everything else that goes with it. to be successful. And there are only 2 airlines in the country that have been doing and we've been doing it for 10 years, like you just don't snap your fingers and say, "Oh, I'm going to match this 1 element, and it works. So I I'm not worried about it as a competitor. They're doing that. It might be better for their own airlines like they may be able to upsell with their own airline and stuff. The brand loyal customers are not going to switch because of that.

John Godyn

There was a lot there. One thing you didn't emphasize was international networks. -- and the importance of international networks in all of this. We do see some of these domestic carriers kind of suggesting or exploring or trying to execute on international buildouts. Any perspective there? .

Scott Kirby

No. The reason I didn't say that is because the commodity part of the business is the route network. Almost everyone in the business with the exception of people that sit in the conference rooms at United and Delta, thinks of air travel as a commodity. And the route network is incredibly important. Like Patrick is sitting in this room, he is the best in the world. Cool destinations on the map like new Greenland or Unabatar or Plandaporo now. And that is a nice to have for the frequent flyer program, but that is the commodity part of the business. The service product, technology and reliability are what sets a brand airline -- brand loyal airline apart. And by the way, for international, United was born on third base. Like I wish we had a huge domestic hub like Atlanta or Dallas, we don't. That's a weakness for us compared to the other guys. But on international, Newark, Dallas and San Francisco are really the 3 best hubs in the country for international, particularly premium, but all international service. And we happen to have hubs in those places. It's just a natural advantage for us.

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

Scott Group

Scott, I think there's an assumption that whenever fuel eventually goes lower, we're going to get some chunk of this pricing back. And I'll preface, maybe this is just a really dumb question, but like you're all demonstrating so much more pricing power than I think any of us thought a few quarters ago. It's like why can't price or RASM or whatever, like continue to go up whenever fuel eventually goes lower? Like I guess, can pricing ever decouple from capacity? Or is that just like way to naive of a thought or hope?

Scott Kirby

It's an insightful question, and I will -- I'll try to answer -- answer too many questions today, but I'll answer this. I think it's really important. First, I think it's important to while pricing has gone up a lot this year, it is still down in real terms compared to 2019. So we are bouncing still off of a COVID low and air travel raised a great value. The more important point for will stay and will hold is I think we're demonstrating this year that it's different this time. It's different this time because costs have escalated so much across the industry. It's not just fuel price. Our airport fees at our hub airports are 60% higher now than they were pre-COVID. And those are the kind of the -- that maintenance fees, engines, like all that stuff has just gone through the roof. And those apply to every airline. In the past, the cost leaders were the high-margin, low-cost airlines. They are now the low margin, no longer low-cost airlines because costs have been harmonized.

And every airline -- like 6 to 10 years, airlines is going to use money this year. It's expensive to fly airplanes. And you don't -- you can't continue to exist unless you can get to profitability. And so I think the tide has to rise for everyone or those airlines simply won't exist, which would, of course, adjust pricing as well. They won't exist if they can't get pricing up. And that is what's happened this year. People by and large, have been willing to accept lower load factors. I think it's an important point. I said it in my opening script, maybe we'll continue to trade that may be the way we get there next year anyway. It doesn't happen 100%. There's still a temptation for people to run fair sales and things, but mostly people have been willing to trade yield for load factor because they look at it and say, like, I have to charge what my cost is and it cost me explain airplane. -- my yield has to be higher the next -- and that sort of fundamental math applies to every airline.

And it's actually why I'm pretty confident that we're not going to take steps backwards in pricing because everyone is looking at -- they've got to get their yield at least above their cost and number of airlines aren't there yet. So I feel confident like I've been around the industry a long time like you, and it's certainly easier, by the way, if there was less capacity, it's more straightforward because the temptation to run a sale and boost your load factor is lower if you're already booked high. So it certainly be easier, but there's a good chance. I certainly think pricing is going to stay. But I think that there's a good chance that we the industry surprises to the upside on yield next year even in a higher capacity environment.

Scott Group

And then, Mike, just real quick, like when you talk about 100% fuel recapture next year, realistically, what's the fuel price we need to get back to actually get there?

Michael Leskinen

Look, we're trying not to be a hedge fund or fuel traders. So what we do is we look at current crack spreads, and we look at the forward curve for Brent. And if you look at that fuel price in 2027 would be over $4 for the full year. and it'd be about $450 for Q1 and 420 for Q2, drifting to $3.70 by 4Q at '27. So we think about that as the base case. I'm sure that's wrong, but we don't try to prognosticate on any different view versus the forward curve. So that's what we would need to pass through.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Duane Pfenningwerth with Evercore ISI. .

Duane Pfennigwerth

A couple of quick ones. Andrew, where are you seeing the most sequential improvement in yields into 4Q, either by geography or customer segment and really hoping, I know broad-based is a popular term right now. I'm really hoping we can get more than that.

Andrew Nocella

Sure. I mean, the simple answer, as I said earlier, is leisure yields are higher than business. The business is still strong. But the momentum is a bit stronger in international. As you saw in Q3, Latin had a great quarter. I expect that to happen yet again in Q4. We're not going to lose any momentum there. But I also expect the Atlantic and the Pacific to gain momentum. So -- and that's why we gave the guide, and that's how we're talking about our acceleration into Q4. So hopefully, that helps.

Duane Pfennigwerth

That does help. And then just very quickly, cargo, can you speak -- I mean you mentioned that it's mostly yield, but is this macro? Is this geography? Is this go-to-market? What is driving the continued strength in cargo?

Andrew Nocella

Asia is definitely very strong. As you know, from our numbers, we didn't grow our global long-haul a lot last year and in particular, in the high cargo tracks, we didn't. So we've been focused on yield in the bellies because the bellies are relatively full of bandwidth. And so we did a great job on that track, and we'll see where it goes next year. But the environment for cargo, I think, does remain strong. It is more of a commodity-based product than our passenger seats at this point. We're aware of that. We're doing our best to even decommoditize cargo. That's a whole another subject. But cargo is an amazing part of United Airlines. We lead the way in the United States and expect to continue to do so for a long time to come.

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Catherine O'Brien with Goldman Sachs. .

Catherine O'Brien

Just 1 on corporate for Andrew. So it continues to be a bright spot. I understand that leisure yields are having a bit of a recovery here but still really strong corporate yields. With corporate load factors up 1 point in 3Q, that's better than, I think, up 0.5 point in 2Q. Do you expect that to continue to improve based on current 4Q trends? And then I guess maybe just higher level. If we see a larger step-up in corporate volume recoveries, which I think are still a decent amount lower than 2019, what could this mean for premium cabin pricing over the medium term?

Andrew Nocella

Yes. I mean, corporate is still, I would say, 4 to 5 load factor points behind 2019 as a contribution to United Airlines. So as that continues to move in this direction, obviously, we're really excited. This is another place that we are born on third place for all the obvious reasons, our third base not third place, for all the obvious reasons. And so I think that's a meaningful tailwind to the premium global business carriers in which there's primarily 2 in the country. And so that's, I think, a big tailwind for us. The trends for Q4 look identical in this space to Q3 for me in terms of the yield production and the volumes revenue. So we're going into, I think, a particularly strong Q4 where business traffic just shines in the United network. And I think you'll see that when we are talking about this in January of next year.

Catherine O'Brien

Maybe just 1 on '27 capacity. I mean, as we've talked about, United is 1 of the only carriers making money this year, capacity to accelerate into next year. I think there's quite a few other carriers who should probably be looking at their '27 capacity plans with a lot more screening than United. But does overall industry capacity growth figure into your plans on growth, just given the impact that could have on the pricing environment?

Andrew Nocella

Yes. Well, Scott talked about this, I think, in a great amount of detail on that I don't think anybody's capacity plans for 2027 are firm. And even when they are, they probably won't be realized for numerous different reasons. So I'll kind of leave it at that. I think we have a very good track record of making great capacity decisions, and I expect we will do the same in 2027.

Operator

We will now switch to the media portion of the call. [Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from the line of Leslie Josephs with CNBC.

Leslie Josephs

Andrew, you had mentioned the load factors going down a little bit and how -- maybe going forward, the pricing is so strong, it doesn't really matter. Do you worry at all about customers getting priced out of air travel period? And if airfare stays this high? And then I also wanted to ask you, Scott, Ed Bastian is getting honored at Wings later this week, and I was wondering if you have any words for him and how you see your competition with Delta currently?

Scott Kirby

Well, I'll start then. I have huge respect for Ed and I've been public in saying, I took inspiration what Delta did. Now I think we've passed them, we're the innovator now, but I took a lot of inspiration for what Ed did. And I'm going to miss it because we host a big charity event in Dallas this weekend, but I texted ED as soon as you got a well deserved maybe a decade late that you should have got a long time ago. But I think Delta and Ed have done a great job. It is well deserved. He should have gotten it earlier, but I'm sorry, I'm going to miss it because we got a conflict.

Andrew Nocella

Leslie, I'll take the first part of the question, I guess. Look, our perspective is we need to charge prices that recover the total cost of what it costs to fly in airline and we have to do that. But that being said, as we create our products, we're aiming to elevate for all and all cabins for all passengers and create value for all in the process of doing so. And the latest example is WiFi that works -- it works at scale. And it's going to be a reason, I think, customers increasingly choose United Airlines in 2027 and beyond.

Operator

Our final question will come from the line of John Pletz with Cranes Chicago Business.

John Pletz

You mentioned that you think capacity at her will be lower for longer. Why is that? And why is it going to be good for United?

Andrew Nocella

Well, this is a really complicated assessment, but there is an enormous amount of construction, the current at a hair. It goes through the early 2030s and that is the time line. We wish it was faster, by the way. We were always supportive of redeveloping the field and getting modern facilities when maybe others were not. And we look forward to those facilities being built. But in the meantime, it is a construction zone and we need to reflect that reality. And I think the taxi ways and other aspects of the airfield, which do not have immediate changes of plan for them are just going to take years to resolve. It's disappointing as we invest all this money in the field, I think United Airlines would like to grow -- but at the same time, we -- it's important that it be a reliable air field for all travelers on all airlines -- we've had numerous conversations with the FAA about this, and that's where I think it's coming out.

And so my guess is that this restriction lasts for a lot still effect, but that's simply my guess based on what I see in terms of construction at the airport and the time line for completion.

John Pletz

You cut out there, but you said my guess is what?

Andrew Nocella

That this is a restriction that lasts until the construction that the airport has done and the taxi way situation has been resolved. .

Operator

And I will now turn the call back over to Kristina Edwards for closing remarks.

Kristina Munoz

Thanks, everyone, for joining the call today. Please contact Investor Media Relations if you have any further questions, and we look forward to talking to you next quarter. Bye, everyone.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.