Cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh Quý 2 năm tài chính 2026 của Oxford Industries (OXM): Hạ dự báo do Lilly Pulitzer suy yếu

Oxford Industries (OXM) đã báo cáo doanh số bán hàng quý 2 năm tài chính 2026 giảm, nhưng khả năng sinh lời điều chỉnh được cải thiện. Tommy Bahama ghi nhận doanh số cửa hàng tương đương tăng trưởng dương, trong khi sự suy yếu tiếp diễn tại Lilly Pulitzer đã khiến ban lãnh đạo hạ dự báo doanh số và EPS điều chỉnh cho cả năm.

Các điểm chính

• Doanh số thuần hợp nhất giảm xuống 394 triệu USD từ mức 403 triệu USD. Doanh số cửa hàng tương đương của công ty giảm 1%, trong đó bán lẻ giảm 3% và thương mại điện tử đi ngang.
• Biên lợi nhuận gộp điều chỉnh tăng 140 điểm cơ bản lên 63,1%, nhờ những thay đổi về cơ cấu sản phẩm, nguồn cung ứng và giá bán, mức tăng giá ban đầu cao hơn và doanh số bán buôn giảm giá ít hơn.
• EBITDA điều chỉnh tăng lên 45 triệu USD từ 43 triệu USD, với biên EBITDA cải thiện lên 11,4% từ mức 10,7%. EPS điều chỉnh đạt 1,34 USD.
• Tommy Bahama ghi nhận doanh số cửa hàng tương đương tăng trưởng ở mức một chữ số thấp, bao gồm việc tăng trưởng dương trở lại ở Florida. Lilly Pulitzer ghi nhận doanh số cửa hàng tương đương giảm ở mức một chữ số trung bình.
• Ban lãnh đạo đã hạ dự báo doanh số năm tài chính 2026 xuống còn 1,43 tỷ - 1,47 tỷ USD và dự báo EPS điều chỉnh xuống 1,60 - 2,00 USD, với lý do là những thách thức của Lilly Pulitzer và tâm lý người tiêu dùng thận trọng.
• Nợ dài hạn giảm xuống còn 73 triệu USD từ mức 143 triệu USD vào cuối quý 1, nhờ dòng tiền từ hoạt động kinh doanh, chi tiêu vốn thấp hơn và các khoản hoàn thuế quan.

Dữ liệu tài chính cốt lõi

Công ty đã ghi nhận khoản giảm 42 triệu USD trong giá vốn hàng bán đối với các khoản thuế quan đã trả trước đó và nhận được hầu như toàn bộ số dư trong quý hoặc ngay sau đó. Tác động này đã được loại trừ khỏi kết quả điều chỉnh.

Kết quả Hoạt động và Kinh doanh

Tommy Bahama

Doanh số cửa hàng tương đương trực tiếp đến người tiêu dùng (DTC) tăng trưởng ở mức một chữ số thấp của Tommy Bahama đã bù đắp một phần sự suy yếu ở những mảng khác. Florida đã ghi nhận doanh số cửa hàng tương đương tăng trưởng dương trở lại sau nhiều quý yếu hơn. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết cả danh mục đồ nam và đồ nữ đều tăng trưởng, trong đó đồ nữ đạt kết quả vượt trội hơn đồ nam.

Doanh số bán buôn giảm, chủ yếu do hoạt động xả hàng giảm giá thấp hơn. Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng doanh số cửa hàng tương đương cả năm của Tommy Bahama sẽ duy trì ở mức tăng nhẹ.

Lilly Pulitzer

Lilly Pulitzer vẫn là điểm gây áp lực chính trong danh mục thương hiệu, với doanh số cửa hàng tương đương giảm ở mức một chữ số trung bình và doanh số bán buôn giảm giá thấp hơn. Ban lãnh đạo cho rằng sự suy yếu này chủ yếu đến từ các vấn đề về cơ cấu sản phẩm và tiếp thị chứ không phải do sự mất niềm tin diện rộng vào thương hiệu.

Công ty đã chuyển quá nhiều hàng tồn kho từ phân khúc giá nhập môn sang các mặt hàng có giá cao hơn. Các mẫu váy có giá dưới 200 USD chiếm khoảng 35% số kiểu dáng trong năm nay, giảm so với khoảng một nửa vào năm ngoái. Ban lãnh đạo có kế hoạch khôi phục cấu trúc giá cân bằng hơn trong khi vẫn duy trì một số mở rộng ở các mức giá cao hơn.

Thời gian sản xuất sản phẩm đồng nghĩa với việc mùa xuân năm 2027 sẽ là mùa đầu tiên Oxford có thể tái cấu trúc đáng kể toàn bộ danh mục sản phẩm. Việc tái định hình sẽ giải quyết cấu trúc giá, sự cân bằng giữa họa tiết in, hoa văn và màu sắc, các dịp sử dụng dự kiến, cũng như sự kết hợp giữa kiểu dáng mới và kiểu dáng tiếp tục duy trì. Các chương trình khuyến mãi có mục tiêu rõ ràng hơn được lên kế hoạch trong thời gian còn lại của năm tài chính 2026 nhằm hỗ trợ sự gắn kết và giải phóng hàng tồn kho.

Johnny Was và các Thương hiệu Mới nổi

Johnny Was đã tăng đáng kể EBITDA nhờ biên lợi nhuận gộp cao hơn, quản lý hàng tồn kho chặt chẽ hơn, ít chương trình khuyến mãi hơn và kiểm soát chi phí SG&A kỷ luật. Ban lãnh đạo xác định việc cải thiện khả năng sinh lời — chứ không phải tăng trưởng doanh số ngắn hạn — là mục tiêu trọng tâm của kế hoạch xoay chuyển tình thế.

Trong nhóm Các thương hiệu Mới nổi, ban lãnh đạo xác định Southern Tide là thương hiệu tụt hậu chính. Oxford đã bổ nhiệm một lãnh đạo thương hiệu mới và hợp nhất công tác giám sát tài chính, kế hoạch và hoạt động trên toàn tập đoàn.

Bảng Cân đối Kế toán và các Sáng kiến Hiệu quả

Hàng tồn kho giảm 20 triệu USD, tương đương 12%, tính theo phương pháp LIFO. Tính theo phương pháp FIFO, hàng tồn kho giảm 9 triệu USD, tương đương 4%, dẫn đầu là mức giảm ở Các thương hiệu Mới nổi, Lilly Pulitzer và Johnny Was.

Oxford đã bắt đầu đánh giá trên toàn doanh nghiệp nhằm mục tiêu đơn giản hóa hoạt động, cải thiện hiệu quả và nâng cao biên lợi nhuận hoạt động trong vài năm tới. Các sáng kiến bao gồm mở rộng sử dụng trung tâm phân phối tự động tại Lyons, Georgia, đơn giản hóa hạ tầng công nghệ, thúc đẩy phân tích dữ liệu và năng lực AI, cũng như tối ưu hóa hệ thống cửa hàng.

Dự báo của Ban lãnh đạo

Kế hoạch điều chỉnh giả định doanh số thấp hơn tại Lilly Pulitzer và Johnny Was, được bù đắp một phần bởi sự tăng trưởng tại Tommy Bahama và Các thương hiệu Mới nổi. Theo kênh bán hàng, ban lãnh đạo dự kiến kênh DTC sẽ giảm ở mức một chữ số thấp và bán buôn giảm ở mức một chữ số cao, được bù đắp một phần bởi mức tăng trưởng hai chữ số thấp của mảng ẩm thực và đồ uống.

Trong quý 3, Oxford dự kiến:

• Doanh số đạt 280 triệu - 300 triệu USD, so với 307 triệu USD cùng kỳ năm trước.
• Lỗ điều chỉnh trên mỗi cổ phiếu là 1,40 - 1,20 USD, so với mức lỗ 0,92 USD cùng kỳ năm trước.
• Biên lợi nhuận gộp mở rộng khoảng 100 điểm cơ bản.
• Tăng trưởng chi phí SG&A ở mức một chữ số thấp.
• Thuế suất thực tế khoảng 24%.

Ban lãnh đạo cũng dự kiến biên lợi nhuận gộp sẽ cải thiện khoảng 100 điểm cơ bản trong quý 4. Kế hoạch quý 4 giả định doanh số cửa hàng tương đương dao động từ tương đối đi ngang đến tăng nhẹ, nhờ một phần vào các chương trình khuyến mãi tại Lilly Pulitzer và mức cơ sở so sánh dễ dàng hơn với tình trạng gián đoạn hàng hóa do thuế quan của năm trước.

Rủi ro và các Lĩnh vực Trọng tâm

• Các vấn đề về cơ cấu sản phẩm và tiếp thị của Lilly Pulitzer dự kiến sẽ gây áp lực lên năm tài chính 2026, do việc tái định hình sản phẩm diện rộng không thể diễn ra trước mùa xuân năm 2027.
• Hoạt động khuyến mãi gia tăng tại Lilly Pulitzer có thể gây áp lực lên giá bán thực tế, mặc dù ban lãnh đạo dự kiến mức tăng giá ban đầu cao hơn và cơ cấu kênh bán hàng sẽ bù đắp tác động này đối với biên lợi nhuận gộp.
• Ban lãnh đạo dẫn trưng tâm lý người tiêu dùng yếu hơn và chi phí du lịch cao hơn là những áp lực lên chi tiêu cho trang phục không thiết yếu.
• Triển vọng giả định thuế suất thuế quan Mục 301 hiện tại vẫn tiếp tục có hiệu lực trong thời gian còn lại của năm tài chính 2026. Việc tăng thuế bổ sung sẽ chủ yếu ảnh hưởng đến các kỳ tương lai do thời điểm nhận hàng tồn kho và bán hàng.
• Doanh số cửa hàng tương đương tính từ đầu quý đến nay hơi âm, nhưng ban lãnh đạo cho biết thời điểm khuyến mãi và kỳ nghỉ Lễ Lao động muộn đã tạo ra sự nhiễu đáng kể trong giai đoạn đầu quý.

Điểm nổi bật trong phần Hỏi & Đáp với Chuyên gia Phân tích

• Động lực của Tommy Bahama: Ban lãnh đạo đã nhấn mạnh kết quả kinh doanh cải thiện tại Florida và mức tăng trưởng mảng đồ nữ mạnh hơn đồ nam. Công ty dự kiến doanh số cửa hàng tương đương cả năm sẽ tăng trưởng nhẹ.
• Thời điểm phục hồi của Lilly Pulitzer: Mùa xuân năm 2027 là mùa đầu tiên áp dụng việc tái cấu trúc toàn bộ danh mục sản phẩm. Hàng hóa mùa nghỉ dưỡng có thể đưa ra tín hiệu sớm hơn, trong khi khoảng trống sản phẩm liên quan đến thuế quan của năm trước có thể tạo ra một số triển vọng tích cực trong quý 4.
• Chuyển đổi cửa hàng: Một số cửa hàng Johnny Was và Southern Tide chọn lọc đang được chuyển đổi thành Lilly Pulitzer ở những nơi ban lãnh đạo tin rằng độ nhận diện thương hiệu địa phương và hiệu quả kinh tế cửa hàng có lợi cho Lilly. Công ty cho biết Lilly Pulitzer vẫn duy trì có lãi bất chấp sự suy yếu hiện tại.
• Sự tự tin về biên lợi nhuận gộp: Mức tăng giá ban đầu cao hơn và tỷ trọng bán buôn thấp hơn dự kiến sẽ trung hòa hoặc bù đắp nhiều hơn cho tần suất khuyến mãi gia tăng của Lilly Pulitzer.
• Chi phí vận chuyển: Chi phí container nhập hàng từ châu Á cao hơn một chút, nhưng các hợp đồng vận chuyển bưu kiện đầu ra được đàm phán lại cung cấp một phần sự bù đắp. Ban lãnh đạo không xem tổng tác động của chi phí vận chuyển là đáng kể.

Toàn văn Biên bản Cuộc họp Báo cáo Kết quả Kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Oxford Industries' Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce Brian Smith. Please go ahead.

Brian Smith

Thank you and good afternoon. Before we begin, I would like to remind participants that certain statements made on today's call and in the Q&A session may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees, and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause actual results of operations or financial conditions to differ are discussed in our press release issued earlier today and in documents filed by us with the SEC, including the risk factors contained in our Form 10-K.

We undertake no duty to update any forward-looking statements. During this call, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. You can find a reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures in our press release issued earlier today, which is posted under our Investor Relations tab at our website at oxfordinc.com.

And now I'd like to introduce today's call participants. With me today are Tom Chubb, Chairman and CEO, and Scott Grassmyer, CFO and COO. Thank you for your attention, and I can turn the call over to Tom Chubb.

Thomas Chubb

Thank you, Brian. Good afternoon and thank you for joining us. I'm pleased to be here today to discuss our second quarter results, the performance of our brands, and our outlook for the balance of fiscal 2026. Overall, second quarter results were within our expectations, highlighted by year-over-year adjusted earnings per share growth and a low single-digit comparable sales gain at Tommy Bahama. We also delivered meaningful adjusted gross margin expansion despite a higher level of promotional activity, reflecting the progress our teams have made on assortment, sourcing, and pricing across the portfolio.

The strong cash flow we generated enabled us to make meaningful progress reducing debt in the second quarter. Refunds of previously paid tariffs contributed to that reduction. Maintaining a strong balance sheet and generating cash that can be deployed thoughtfully remained important priorities for us. Scott will provide more detail on our cash flow and balance sheet performance.

Tommy Bahama's second quarter results were consistent with our expectations. As our largest brand, its positive comparable sales growth provided important support to the overall portfolio and helped offset pressure elsewhere in the business. We were also encouraged by a return to positive comparable sales in Florida, a key market for the brand that had experienced softer results in recent periods. We are pleased with the consistency of the brand's performance and remain focused on sustaining that momentum through disciplined merchandising, marketing, and operating execution.

While we continue to deliver positive results at Tommy Bahama, performance at Lilly Pulitzer remained weak in the second quarter, and our outlook for the brand for the balance of the year is now below what we anticipated at the end of the first quarter. As we discussed on our first quarter call, Lilly Pulitzer entered the quarter with several product and marketing challenges. The core problem is the assortment, with the key issue being that we shifted far too much of our inventory investment out of our entry price points to higher price points. Second quarter results and the trends we are currently seeing indicate that those challenges have been more significant than we originally anticipated. We are responding with actions aimed at both near-term performance and the longer-term health of the brand.

Because of our product development lead times, spring 2027 is the first season in which we can substantially reshape the full assortment. In the meantime, we are refining our marketing and messaging, adjusting the promotional cadence, and managing inventory and expenses more tightly. Given current trends, we expect Lilly Pulitzer to be more promotional during the balance of the year. We will remain strategic and disciplined, using targeted promotional activity to support customer engagement and inventory sell-through while protecting the long-term integrity of the brand.

Promotions are 1 lever, but lasting improvement will also require stronger product relevance, marketing effectiveness, and execution. We are laser-focused on delivering these requirements. For spring 2027, our work is centered on 4 areas: our pricing architecture strategy, balance of print, pattern, and color, mix of intended use occasions between social and casual, and the proportion of new versus continuing styles. These assortment changes will not drive a positive trend change in fiscal 2026, but we believe they will create a more balanced and compelling assortment and better position Lilly Pulitzer for improved performance beginning with the spring 2027 season.

We remain confident in Lilly Pulitzer's long-term potential. The brand has a clear point of view, a strong emotional connection with its customer, and meaningful opportunities for improvement. That confidence does not lessen the urgency of the current situation. We are focused on addressing the issues directly and returning Lilly Pulitzer to the level of performance we expect from the brand.

At Johnny Was, we continue to make progress on the turnaround plan. The brand significantly increased EBITDA during the second quarter, driven by higher gross margin resulting from tighter inventory management and fewer promotions, together with disciplined SG&A cost management. There is still work to do, but we are encouraged by the improvement in profitability. Stepping back, weaker consumer sentiment has added pressure to discretionary demand. Our customers, particularly at Tommy Bahama and Lilly Pulitzer, tend to be active travelers, and although they continue to travel, higher airfare, lodging, and other travel costs may be leaving less room in their discretionary budgets for apparel. Even so, the steady performance at Tommy Bahama reinforces that compelling product and consistent execution can still produce solid results in this environment.

Our responsibility is to deliver that level of product relevance and execution more consistently across the portfolio. The continued softness at Lilly Pulitzer, including the impact of a more promotional posture for the balance of the year, together with softer demand in certain other parts of the portfolio, led us to lower our top and bottom line guidance for the remainder of the year. At Lilly Pulitzer, the issues are primarily assortment and marketing related, while the pressure elsewhere in the business is more closely tied to a more cautious, discerning consumer. We believe the updated guidance represents a prudent assessment of current business trends, the macro environment, and the actions we expect to take. Scott will provide more detail on our revised outlook and the assumptions underlying it.

Against this backdrop, our priorities are clear: sustain the positive momentum at Tommy Bahama, address the assortment and marketing issues at Lilly Pulitzer, and build on the profitability improvement at Johnny Was. We are managing inventory expenses and capital carefully while maintaining our focus on cash generation, debt reduction, and a strong balance sheet. After Scott's comments, I will turn briefly to discuss several broader actions underway across Oxford. As always, I want to thank our teams across Oxford. Their resilience, creativity, and commitment to our customers are the foundation of everything we do.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Scott for more detailed commentary on our financial performance and outlook.

K. Grassmyer

Thank you, Tom. Consolidated net sales were $394 million in the second quarter of fiscal '26 compared to $403 million in the second quarter of fiscal '25, and near the high end of our guidance range of $380 million to $400 million. The company comparable sales were down slightly at 1%, including a 3% decrease in retail sales and flat e-commerce sales. The decline in retail comp sales was partially offset by sales from non-comp stores open primarily in the prior year. Notably, food and beverage sales increased 11%, driven primarily by non-comp locations. Wholesale sales decreased 14% compared to the prior year, but was primarily driven by lower sales of residual inventory through off-price channels. By brand, sales growth at Tommy Bahama helped to partially offset decreases in our other businesses. Sales decreases at Lilly Pulitzer and Johnny Was were driven by a mid-single-digit negative comp and lower off-price wholesale sales, while the sales decline at Emerging Brands was driven primarily by lower wholesale sales. The positive sales growth at Tommy Bahama was driven by a low single-digit positive comp in our DTC channels, partially offset by a decline in wholesale sales driven primarily by lower off-price clearance sales.

Adjusted gross margin expanded 140 basis points to 63.1%, driven primarily by updated assortment, sourcing, and pricing strategies across our portfolio that resulted in higher IMUs, along with a change in sales mix with off-price wholesale sales representing a lower proportion of net sales. These factors were partially offset by a higher proportion of net sales in our DTC channels occurring during promotional events at Tommy Bahama, Lilly Pulitzer, and Emerging Brands.

Tariff cost included in inventory sold during the year were materially consistent with the prior year. As Tom mentioned, we recorded and received significant tariff refunds during the quarter. We recorded a reduction to cost of goods sold of $42 million of tariffs previously paid and received substantially the entire balance during the second quarter or shortly thereafter. The impact of these refunds was excluded from our adjusted results.

Adjusted SG&A expenses increased slightly to $210 million compared to $209 million last year, impacted primarily by new brick-and-mortar retail and food and beverage locations, as well as increases in software and consulting costs, and costs associated with the transition of our Lyons, Georgia, distribution center operations. These increases were partially offset by lower incentive compensation and cuts in more discretionary categories like travel. The result of this yielded adjusted EBITDA of $45 million, or an 11.4% adjusted EBITDA margin, compared to adjusted EBITDA of $43 million, or 10.7%, in the prior year.

Moving beyond EBITDA, adjusted depreciation and amortization increased by approximately $1 million compared to the prior year, primarily due to increases in depreciation related to our new Lyons facility. Interest expense was relatively flat compared to the prior year, as our average debt levels declined during the year. The effective tax rate of 27.5% was lower than the prior year of 29.6% due to certain discrete items that were more significant in the prior year. With all this, we ended up with $1.34 of adjusted EPS.

Moving to the balance sheet, inventory decreased $20 million to 12% on a LIFO basis that included a $10 million increase in to the LIFO reserve. On a FIFO basis, inventory decreased $9 million, or 4%, compared to the second quarter of 2025, with decreases in Emerging Brands, Lilly Pulitzer, and Johnny Was. We ended the quarter with long-term debt of $73 million, which is down $70 million compared to $143 million at the end of the first quarter, and compared to long-term debt of $81 million at the end of the second quarter of fiscal '25, and $116 million at the end of fiscal 2025.

Cash flow from operations provided $97 million in the first half of 2026, which includes $29 million received related to tariff refunds, compared to $80 million in the first half of 2025. We also had lower capital expenditures of $32 million in the first half of '26, compared to the first half of fiscal '25 of $55 million. The decrease, which primarily related to the addition of fewer new bricks-and-mortar locations and lower expenditures on the Lyons, Georgia, distribution center project, as that project comes to a close, also allowed for further reduction of our long-term debt. We're also paying dividends of $22 million.

And now I'll spend some time on our updated outlook for 2026. As Tom mentioned, the ongoing challenges in the Lilly Pulitzer business, along with our generally conservative view of consumer sentiment, led us to reduce our top and bottom line outlook for the remainder of the year. For the full year, we now expect a low single-digit negative comp for the total company, which is lower than our previous range of slightly negative to slightly positive. As a result of the change in our comp assumptions, we are revising our guidance range for the full year and now expect sales to be between $1.43 billion and $1.47 billion, or a decline of 3% to relatively flat, compared to sales of $1.478 billion in fiscal 2025. Our revised sales plan for the full year of '26 includes a sales decrease in Lilly Pulitzer and Johnny Was, partially offset by a sales increase in Tommy Bahama, and growth in the Emerging Brands. By distribution channel, the full-year sales plan consists of low single-digit decreases in our direct-to-consumer channels and a high single-digit decrease in wholesale, partially offset by a low double-digit increase in our food and beverage channel that is benefiting from the additional -- addition of new locations.

Moving on to gross margin, our outlook assumes that the tariff rates reflecting the recent Section 301 changes will remain in effect for the balance of fiscal 2026. Because those rates are only modestly higher than the rates applicable to most of our first half inventory receipts, we do not expect the changes to materially affect fiscal 2026 results. Any additional tariff increase implemented during the balance of the year would be expected to affect primarily future periods due to the timing of the inventory receipts and sales. When removing any tariff refund-related impact, we now expect an approximate 50 basis points increase in gross margin for the year with improved IMUs and a continuation of the shift to a higher proportion of direct-to-consumer sales to be partially offset by higher promotional activity, particularly at Lilly Pulitzer. As a result of these factors, we expect gross margins to improve approximately 100 basis points in both Q3 and Q4 fiscal '26 compared to the prior year.

In addition to lower sales and higher gross margins, we expect SG&A to grow in the low single-digit range, primarily due to the annualization of incremental SG&A from new stores added primarily in fiscal 2025, additional costs related to transition to the Lyons, Georgia, distribution center, and increased software-related costs. Also within EBITDA, we expect higher royalties and other income of approximately $2 million in fiscal '26, largely due to the normalization of sales from our licensing partners that were heavily impacted by the implementation of tariffs in fiscal '25.

Outside of EBITDA, we expect an increase in depreciation due to significantly all of the incremental costs to operate the new Lyons DC in fiscal '26 being depreciation related. We also expect interest expense of $6 million, which is lower than our previous estimate due to our recent significant reduction in debt. Considering all these items and a tax rate between 27% and 28%, we're revising our 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $1.60 to $2 versus adjusted EPS of $2.11 last year. In the third quarter of '26, we expect sales of $280 million to $300 million compared to sales of $307 million in the third quarter of '25. This primarily reflects a mid-single-digit negative to low single-digit negative comp assumption and relatively flat wholesale sales.

By brand, we expect lower sales at Lilly Pulitzer and Johnny Was to be partially offset by a sales increase at Tommy Bahama and growth at Emerging Brands. We also expect gross margin to expand approximately 100 basis points, SG&A to grow in the low single-digit range, royalty income of approximately $3 million, an interest expense of $1 million, and an effective tax rate of approximately 24%. We expect this to result in third quarter adjusted loss per share between $1.40 and $1.20, compared to a loss per share of $0.92 last year. Our fourth quarter sales plan includes the benefits of some additional promotional activity, primarily at Lilly Pulitzer, along with most of our groups benefiting from the correction of tariff-related merchandising issues that significantly impacted our holiday season and fourth quarter results last year. As a result, our fourth quarter plan includes a comp assumption of relatively flat to slightly positive.

Moving to our CapEx outlook for the remainder of the year, we expect capital expenditures for the year to be approximately $60 million, including the $32 million spent in the first half of fiscal '26, compared to a total of $108 million in fiscal '25. The remaining capital expenditures relate primarily to new brick-and-mortar locations and the remaining capital expenditures for the new distribution center in Lyons, Georgia.

I will now turn it back to Tom for some closing comments.

Thomas Chubb

Thank you, Scott. Before we open the call for questions, I want to briefly discuss a broader review we recently initiated across the enterprise aimed at meaningfully enhancing operating margins in the next few years. The review is focused on opportunities to simplify the business, improve efficiency, and sharpen how we allocate resources across Oxford in order to become less dependent on historical rates of growth to fuel higher profitability. We are still developing our plans and expect to share more as they are finalized, but we believe it is important to highlight several actions already underway.

First, we have made significant progress ramping up the Lyons, Georgia, distribution center. As the facility matures, we'll look to take full advantage of our investment and move more product into the building, including from a legacy 3PL, to operate more efficiently across our increasingly automated footprint. With the major investment phase nearing completion, we also expect capital expenditures to normalize after several years of elevated spending on Lyons, which will increase the cash available for further debt reduction. With impending retirements within our technology leadership, we have transitions underway that will support a reassessment of our IT infrastructure with an eye towards simplifying our tech stack and advancing our data analytics and AI capabilities across the enterprise. We are also optimizing our store fleet, including converting selected Southern Tide and Johnny Was locations to Lilly Pulitzer, where we believe the market and location are better suited to that brand. We will continue to evaluate the fleet market by market and location by location and make changes where we believe they will create the greatest long-term value.

We have a new brand leader at Southern Tide, and also within our Emerging Brands group, we consolidated oversight of the group's finance, planning, and operations functions to improve consistency and efficiency. These are a few examples of the actions underway alongside the work at Tommy Bahama, Lilly Pulitzer, and Johnny Was. We believe these actions will simplify the business, strengthen execution, and position Oxford for more consistent performance and stronger returns over time. We'll have more to say about all of this in December.

With that, we're happy to take your questions. Paul?

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Ashley Owens with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

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Ashley Owens

Maybe just to start, I wanted to focus in on Tommy Bahama because I thought the point about you calling out the return to positive comps in Florida was very important, just given the size of that market. Could you unpack what helped drive that improvement in the quarter? Whether you're seeing similar strength across both the men's and women's categories?

Thomas Chubb

Yeah, thank you, Ashley. Great questions. And we were -- and I'm glad you called it out because we really were thrilled to see Florida turn positive. As you know, for a number of quarters now, it's been negative for the most part in Tommy Bahama, and that is such a big and important part of our business that when it's negative, it's tough. When it's positive, it makes the whole world seem better. So very glad to see that. Men's versus women's overall in Tommy this year, men's has been up. Women's has actually been up more than men's, which we're happy to see. As you know, we've believed for a long, long time that women's has a huge opportunity in Tommy Bahama. We've made steady progress in growing that business and what we've seen this year has been really encouraging.

Ashley Owens

Great. And then maybe just quickly on Lilly as well. So I think you were very explicit that spring '27 is that first season where you can and are working to reshape the assortment. And that the changes -- we're not going to see that positive trend change until fiscal -- within this year. I guess, should we now think about Lilly as being a spring '27 recovery story? Could there be improvements in the comp with some of that planned promotionality through the back half of the year?

And then just any proof points to, kind of, watch out for that would tell you that the reset is working ahead of the launch. Then maybe just 1 on the modeling side of things with the gross margin guidance. I think it was 100 bps improvement in both Q3 and Q4, despite those elevated promotions at Lilly. Just anything you can say as to what's giving you the confidence in that outlook, particularly if that consumer demand does remain a little bit pressured.

Thomas Chubb

Yes, so I think you understand this, Ashley, but the length of the product pipeline is really the issue. So you get into spring '26, you realize that you've got a really pretty significant assortment issue, but you've got the rest of the year's product already in the pipeline and you can do limited things to adjust for it. So spring '27 is the first season where we were able to really incorporate what we realized was wrong about the assortment in spring '26. The rest of the seasons for '26 were already fundamentally in the pipeline.

There are some other reasons to think that there might be some fourth quarter upside in Lilly and that's just because last year they were struggling through the tariff-related gaps in the product assortment and they overall had a weak fourth quarter last year. So you might see some upside because of those things in the fourth quarter. And then the other thing is the resort product line, I think, which will look more like the spring '27 line, I think, could give us some early reads, but you're not really going to know till very late in the quarter when you've got some spring stuff. And then on the gross margin question, certainly a good question.

And I'll let Scott walk you through that, why we feel good about what we're projecting.

K. Grassmyer

Yes, we are starting with higher IMUs. Also, wholesale will be a little bit lower percent of the total mix, so that will help neutralize or more than offset the higher promotional cadence that we do expect out of Lilly this year.

Operator

Our next question is from Janine Stichter with BTIG.

Ethan Saghi

You got Ethan on for Janine. First, I was just wondering what's driving the divergence between Tommy and the rest of the portfolio? Is it product, demographic, geography, or something else? Just any color you could give on that.

Thomas Chubb

Well, what I would say is I don't think there's really a big divergence between Tommy and most of the rest of the portfolio. It's a little complicated, but Tommy and Lilly, clearly a big divergence, and I think that's almost all about the assortment challenges that Lilly has. Johnny Was, even though their comp numbers are not where Tommy's are, we, kind of, knew that going into the year just because of the trajectory that we came out of '25 on. As we've talked about extensively, the goal in Johnny Was this year is to improve profitability, even if the sales number comes in a bit lower. And that's exactly what happened in the second quarter. So we really look at Johnny Was as a positive story year to date. We think they're ticking the boxes on their turnaround plan.

And then within the Emerging Brands, it's really a Southern Tide issue. We don't -- they're too small for it to make sense for us to get into breaking out a lot of granularity, but Southern Tide's the laggard there. Everything else looks quite good. And as we talked about, we've -- we brought in a new leader at Southern Tide, very excited about him. I think this is his 6th week, maybe, on the job and we're, kind of, rebooting Southern Tide. He's already seen some good opportunities of things that we can improve closer in and then obviously beyond. So I don't think there's as much of a divergence as it might seem like on the surface.

Ethan Saghi

That's a really helpful color and kind of answered my next question, which is going to be on Emerging Brands. So I'll pass it on.

Thomas Chubb

Okay. Thank you, Ethan.

Operator

Our next question is from Mauricio Serna with UBS.

Mauricio Serna Vega

Maybe could you talk about quarter to date, what, kind of, comps you're seeing overall? And how should we think about the comps specifically for Tommy Bahama? How are you thinking about the level, like, the sustainability of the, kind of, comps that you delivered in Q2? And then after that, I have a follow-up on Lilly Pulitzer.

K. Grassmyer

Yes, the comps quarter-to-date, a little cloudy because you have some promotion timing. You also have Labor Day being late. So it's a little cloudy. They're down slightly, but it's -- there's a lot of noise in them this early in the quarter that will normalize more as the quarter goes on.

Mauricio Serna Vega

And then on specifically on Tommy.

K. Grassmyer

We're not going to get into comps by group this early. It's just 1 month is -- not with some of the timing.

Mauricio Serna Vega

No, I wasn't asking about the comps for Tommy. More like, how are you thinking about the comps for, like, that brand in the year?

K. Grassmyer

Yeah, yeah, for the year, Tommy, I mean, we expect them to be slightly positive for the year. And so yes, slightly positive comps for the year.

Mauricio Serna Vega

Got it. And then just on, on Lilly Pulitzer, I guess, just was wondering how are you thinking about the, the assortment strategy? I guess like on a go forward basis. I guess I recall like last year in '25 one of the things that had been successful was to move that -- bring more assortment that was higher AUR. And now it sounds like it seems maybe it went too far. So is the right strategy being more towards the historical type of AURs? Or just trying to figure out from that perspective, how should we think about the assortment strategy?

And then I think you also mentioned on the prepared remarks that you were converting some, I think it was Johnny Was and Southern Tide stores into Lilly Pulitzer. Like, what's the rationality behind that considering that the brand -- the brand seems to be still, obviously struggling and you expect that to continue throughout the rest of the year?

Thomas Chubb

Yes, good questions, Mauricio. And we have, over the last several years, been able to grow the higher-priced business at Lilly Pulitzer. And even this year we continue to have success in those higher-priced points. But think of your pricing strategy as like a pyramid where that top tier, which for us in dresses is $400 and up, it's the little tiny triangle at the top of the pyramid and then you go down the pyramid, the pieces get bigger and bigger. That's, I think, the way almost any brand in the world is set up from a price architecture standpoint. And so what we did this year, you captured it, is I think we just went too far too fast in shifting up the pricing tiers and so last year in our entry price point bucket -- and for us, that's dresses, which are a big category under $200.

Last year that would have been about half of the styles that we offered, would have been in that price bucket. This year it was down to almost down to a 3rd. I think it was like 35%. That was just too much too quickly. And as a result of that, some of those customers were willing to move up a price point, but a lot of them I think were not. And that's been -- I think the the bigger part of our problem has been the price architecture. So going forward, what we've done is we've gone back to what we had in '25. And '26 will move a little more in the upward direction than '25 -- excuse me, '27 will move a little more upward than '25, but that'll be a lot back from '26, if that makes sense.

Mauricio Serna Vega

Yes.

Thomas Chubb

And then on the why switch the stores, these are all locations. And Lilly Pulitzer, even this year as bad as it is, it's still a profitable brand. We very much believe in the brand and the team there. This is completely a fixable issue. And the locations that we're converting are some that, where we believe Johnny Was and Southern Tide just because of the level of brand awareness in those markets is going to have a long, hard road to profitability, but that Lilly Pulitzer can -- easily be profitable in -- a great example is on King Street, in Charleston, where Lilly Pulitzer had operated a store. The landlord was expanding a jewelry and watch business and needed to take the space back.

So we were about to be off King Street in Charleston in Lilly. At the same time, we had a Johnny Was store that was losing a couple of $100,000. And Charleston's not the most natural market for Johnny Was. I do believe over the long term, that'll be a place where Johnny Was will win. But in the short term, and with all the other challenges we had, we knew if we flipped it to Lilly Pulitzer, we'd immediately start making a lot of money, which is exactly what happened. So it's those types of scenarios, Mauricio.

Operator

Our next question is from Paul Lejuez.

Tracy Kogan

Hi, it's Tracy Kogan filling in for Paul. I was hoping you could talk to us about the traffic, AUR, and average basket in Q2 for Tommy and Lilly. And then secondly, I was just wondering on freight if you're seeing any delays and then also related to freight, what level of pressure you've built into your gross margin, and if that has changed materially from what you expected as of 1Q?

Thomas Chubb

Yes, so in 2Q -- and this has really held pretty constantly throughout the year. Traffic has been pretty good. Conversion rates have been off a little bit. Average order values, average basket sizes have been 1 of the bright spots in the story for us. And then the AURs, I think mostly due to the level of that -- the IMUs are higher and the the MSRPs are higher, but the AURs have actually gone down a bit due to the amount of stuff that we promoted this year.

Tracy Kogan

Is that true? I would guess some of that's a little different though between Tommy and Lilly. Were you speaking about 1 of them in your answer there or was that, kind of, an overall?

Thomas Chubb

It was more of an overall comment. There are differences in the brands, but the trend's been pretty similar.

Tracy Kogan

And then on the freight?

K. Grassmyer

Yeah, on the freight we've built in some slight increases, but we have the a little bit of an offset from some some of our outbound parcels. We have -- we renegotiated contracts. So we're -- in the first half of the year especially, we've got a favorable there that's helping neutralize. Now in the second half, I'm sure we'll get some fuel, additional fuel surcharges that will have a slight increase. But overall, our base rates were starting a little bit lower on our outbound parcels, but our containers coming in from Asia are slightly higher and that's -- it's not a real material.

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to hand the floor back over to Tom Chubb for any closing comments.

Thomas Chubb

Thank you, Paul, and thanks to all of you for your interest. We look forward to talking to you again in December, and hope all is well until then.

Operator

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you again for your participation.