Cuộc họp báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh quý 2 năm tài chính 2026 của Tillys (TLYS): Doanh thu cửa hàng tương đương tăng 12.1%

Các điểm chính

• Doanh thu thuần trong quý 2 năm tài chính 2026 tăng 8,1% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái lên 163,5 triệu USD, trong khi doanh thu thuần cùng cửa hàng tăng 12,1%, đánh dấu quý thứ ba liên tiếp đạt tăng trưởng doanh thu cùng cửa hàng ở mức hai chữ số.
• Biên lợi nhuận gộp mở rộng 300 điểm cơ bản lên 35,5%. Biên lợi nhuận sản phẩm cải thiện 140 điểm cơ bản, nhờ doanh số bán đúng giá tăng mạnh hơn, hàng tồn kho mới hơn và hiệu quả xả hàng tồn kho tốt hơn.
• Lợi nhuận thuần tăng lên 8,4 triệu USD, tương đương 0,27 USD trên mỗi cổ phiếu pha loãng, từ mức 3,2 triệu USD, tương đương 0,10 USD trên mỗi cổ phiếu. Đây là quý thứ năm liên tiếp Tillys cải thiện lợi nhuận so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái.
• Doanh số thương mại điện tử tăng 20,9% và chiếm 21,1% doanh thu thuần hàng quý. Doanh số cửa hàng truyền thống tăng 5,1% mặc dù Tillys vận hành ít hơn 12 cửa hàng so với cùng kỳ năm trước.
• Doanh thu cùng cửa hàng tăng 14,6% trong tháng 8 của năm tài chính. Ban quản lý đưa ra dự báo doanh thu thuần quý 3 năm tài chính 2026 đạt từ 150 triệu đến 155 triệu USD, tương ứng với mức tăng trưởng cùng cửa hàng từ 10% đến 14%.
• Tillys kết thúc quý mà không có nợ vay, sở hữu 62,2 triệu USD tiền mặt và các khoản đầu tư. Hàng tồn kho giảm 1,3% ngay cả khi doanh số tăng, và cơ cấu hàng tồn kho mới hơn so với một năm trước đó.

Dữ liệu tài chính cốt lõi

Tillys đã tạo ra mức lợi nhuận gần 2 triệu USD trong bốn quý gần nhất và 400.000 USD lợi nhuận từ đầu năm đến nay. Ban quản lý cho biết công ty đang nỗ lực hướng tới năm tài chính có lãi đầu tiên kể từ năm 2022.

Kết quả kinh doanh và vận hành

Doanh thu cùng cửa hàng tăng lên ở tất cả các khu vực địa lý. Tất cả các ngành hàng ngoại trừ giày dép đều đạt mức tăng trưởng cùng cửa hàng ở mức hai chữ số, thể hiện sự tăng trưởng mạnh mẽ ở cả các thương hiệu may mặc độc quyền và thương hiệu của bên thứ ba. Kết quả hoạt động của cửa hàng được hưởng lợi từ tỷ lệ chuyển đổi cải thiện, số lượng đơn vị sản phẩm trên mỗi giao dịch và giá trị trung bình mỗi đơn hàng gia tăng.

Biên lợi nhuận sản phẩm hiện đã cải thiện so với cùng kỳ năm trước trong bảy quý liên tiếp. Ban quản lý cho biết đợt tăng mới nhất là nhờ doanh số bán đúng giá tăng mạnh hơn, quản lý hàng tồn kho chặt chẽ hơn và giá bán lẻ trung bình đơn vị cao hơn đối với hàng xả kho lâu năm sau khi triển khai hệ thống tối ưu hóa giá dựa trên AI vào tháng 10 năm 2025.

Tăng trưởng doanh số cũng vượt qua tốc độ tăng của hàng tồn kho. Doanh thu thuần hàng quý tăng 8,1% trong khi hàng tồn kho giảm 1,3%, với tỷ trọng hàng tồn kho có tuổi đời dưới 90 ngày chiếm phần lớn hơn.

Thương mại điện tử tăng trưởng 20,9%, nhờ sự hiện diện mở rộng trên TikTok và các kênh mới nổi khác. Số lượng người theo dõi TikTok của Tillys gần như tăng gấp đôi lên hơn 325.000, trong khi số thành viên thân thiết hoạt động trong một năm tăng 20% lên 4,6 triệu.

Công ty đang chuẩn bị ra mắt công cụ phân bổ hàng tồn kho ứng dụng AI được thiết kế để cải thiện độ chính xác về đơn vị, kích cỡ và vị trí. Công ty cũng kế hoạch đưa RFID vào các cửa hàng vào đầu năm 2027, bắt đầu với ngành hàng giày dép.

Cho năm tài chính 2027, ban quản lý dự kiến hướng tới mục tiêu mở từ 5 đến 8 cửa hàng mới, tùy thuộc vào các địa điểm có sẵn và hiệu quả kinh tế từ hợp đồng thuê ở mức chấp nhận được.

Dự báo từ ban quản lý

Cho quý 3 năm tài chính 2026, ban quản lý đã đưa ra triển vọng như sau:

Dự báo này so sánh với khoản lỗ thuần 1,4 triệu USD, tương đương 0,05 USD trên mỗi cổ phiếu, vào quý 3 của năm trước. Nếu đạt được, điều này sẽ đại diện cho quý thứ sáu liên tiếp cải thiện lợi nhuận so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái.

Ban quản lý cho biết hầu hết các kịch bản được xem xét đều hướng tới vùng cao của khoảng dự báo doanh thu cùng cửa hàng. Tuy nhiên, công ty vẫn duy trì một phạm vi rộng hơn vì tăng trưởng cùng cửa hàng đã chậm lại sau mùa tựu trường trong 3 trên 4 năm qua.

Tillys chưa đưa ra dự báo cụ thể cho quý 4 của năm tài chính. Ban quản lý cho biết họ đang lập kế hoạch cho kết quả doanh thu cùng cửa hàng tích cực trong quý 4 nhưng không cho biết liệu mức tăng trưởng sẽ ở mức một hay hai chữ số.

Rủi ro và các điểm cần theo dõi

• Động lực tăng trưởng doanh thu cùng cửa hàng có thể giảm tốc sau đợt mua sắm theo nhu cầu vào mùa tựu trường. Trong 3 trên 4 năm qua, tăng trưởng cùng cửa hàng tháng 9 đã chậm lại khoảng 8 điểm phần trăm so với tháng 8.
• Tháng 10 đối mặt với mức so sánh cùng kỳ năm trước khó khăn nhất trong quý 3 năm tài chính, mặc dù đây là tháng có quy mô nhỏ nhất trong quý.
• Giày dép là ngành hàng duy nhất không đạt mức tăng trưởng cùng cửa hàng ở mức hai chữ số trong quý 2 năm tài chính, và ban quản lý cho biết họ đã phải khẩn trương bổ sung một số mặt hàng tồn kho trong mùa tựu trường.
• Chi phí vận chuyển thương mại điện tử cao hơn đã bù trừ phần lớn cho chi phí mặt bằng thấp hơn liên quan đến việc giảm số lượng cửa hàng.
• Các khoản trích trước tiền thưởng liên quan đến hiệu quả hoạt động đã làm tăng 1,5 triệu USD vào chi phí SG&A quý 2 năm tài chính và có thể tiếp tục làm hạn chế đòn bẩy chi phí nếu kết quả kinh doanh tiếp tục vượt mục tiêu nội bộ.

Tóm tắt phiên hỏi đáp với chuyên gia phân tích

Ban quản lý mô tả mức tăng trưởng doanh thu cùng cửa hàng 14,6% trong tháng 8 diễn ra trên diện rộng ở khắp các danh mục hàng hóa và thị trường địa lý. Gần như mọi ngành hàng đều tiếp tục tăng trưởng ở mức hai chữ số, ngoại trừ ngành hàng giày dép.

Về hàng tồn kho, ban quản lý cho biết Tillys nhìn chung đã định vị phù hợp trong mùa tựu trường và cảm thấy được chuẩn bị tốt cho mùa thu cũng như kỳ nghỉ lễ. Công ty tiếp tục điều chỉnh danh mục sản phẩm hàng tuần và đã giải quyết thiếu hụt tồn kho giày dép nhỏ thông qua các đơn đặt hàng bổ sung.

Về các thương hiệu, ban quản lý cho biết kết quả hoạt động cải thiện không làm thay đổi đáng kể các cuộc thảo luận với nhà cung cấp. Các quyết định vẫn tập trung vào việc liệu một thương hiệu có phù hợp với tập khách hàng và trải nghiệm cửa hàng của Tillys hay không, mặc dù công ty đang tích cực tìm kiếm một số thương hiệu tiềm năng mới.

Ban quản lý kỳ vọng sẽ có đòn bẩy chi phí SG&A nhất định trong quý 3 năm tài chính. Tuy nhiên, các khoản trích trước tiền thưởng đã xuất hiện trở lại sau 4 năm gián đoạn vì doanh số và lợi nhuận vượt mục tiêu nội bộ, tạo ra một khoản chi phí không có trong dữ liệu so sánh cùng kỳ năm trước.

Tillys còn 20 quyết định gia hạn hợp đồng thuê trong năm tài chính 2026 và hiện dự kiến sẽ giữ lại toàn bộ 20 cửa hàng. Công ty có khoảng 60 đến 65 quyết định gia hạn hợp đồng thuê gắn liền với các hợp đồng hết hạn trong năm tài chính 2027, trong đó các cuộc thảo luận đã được tiến hành cho một số địa điểm.

Toàn văn biên bản cuộc họp báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Tillys Second Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Gar Jackson with Investor Relations. You may begin.

Gar Jackson

Thank you. Good afternoon, and welcome to Tillys' fiscal 2026 second quarter earnings call. [ Nate Smith ], President and Chief Executive Officer, and Mike Henry, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will discuss the company's business and operating results, followed by a Q&A session with analysts. For a copy of Tillys' earnings press release, visit the Investor Relations section of the company's website at tillys.com. From the same section, shortly after the conclusion of the call, you will also be able to find a recorded replay of this call for the next 30 days.

Certain forward-looking statements will be made during this call that reflect Tillys' judgment and analysis only as of today, September 2, 2026, and actual results may differ materially from current expectations based on various factors affecting Tillys' business. Accordingly, you should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. For a more thorough discussion of the risks and uncertainties associated with any forward-looking statements, please see the disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements that is included in our fiscal 2026 Form 10-K filing, which is furnished to the SEC today on Form 8-K, as well as our other filings at the SEC referenced in that disclaimer.

Today's call will be limited to 1 hour, and I will include a Q&A session after our prepared remarks. I now turn the call over to [ Nate ].

Nate Smith

Thanks, Gar, and to all for joining us today. Good afternoon. A couple of weeks ago, I completed my first full year at Tillys, and I can say without a doubt that it's an exciting time being part of the team. The company has once again executed with discipline, delivering our third straight quarter of double-digit comp sales growth in the second quarter, with that momentum holding strong through back-to-school in July and August. In reflecting on this past year, we have clearly demonstrated a consistency in execution that we can be proud of. I'd like to acknowledge some important achievements that speak to the turnaround momentum that we have been building over the last year.

First, we have now produced 4 consecutive quarters and 13 consecutive months of year-over-year comparable net sales growth, including our 12.1% comp sales increase in the recently completed second quarter, and our 14.6% comp sales increase in fiscal August to begin the third quarter. Next, we have now delivered 7 consecutive quarters of year-over-year product margin improvement. We are not only seeing stronger full-price sales overall, but we are also seeing significantly improved average unit retails on aged clearance items from the impact of the AI price optimization investment we made last year. We've been delivering higher sales on lower inventory levels so far this year, further aiding our product margin gains.

Third, we have now posted 5 consecutive quarters of year-over-year profit improvement on the bottom line. This has been driven not only by improved merchandise assortments, tighter inventory planning and management, and sharper pricing decisions, but also through significant efficiencies in store and distribution labor management and stable home office expenses as sales have grown. And finally, the collection of these improvements has now returned us to profitability on a trailing 4-quarter basis, as well as on a basis for fiscal 2026. It's just under $2 million of profit over the past 4 quarters, and $400,000 of profit on a year-to-date basis. But these are important milestones cleared in our turnaround story as we work towards producing what we currently believe will be our first profitable fiscal year since 2022.

We are encouraged by our progress, but we're not finished. We intend to keep executing and building upon the momentum we've generated. From a merchandising perspective in the second quarter, all departments but footwear posted double-digit percentage comp sales gains. Performance was once again strong across both proprietary and third-party brands in apparel, with few exceptions. These results reflect an assortment that was well positioned for our critical back-to-school season. In terms of store performance, all geographic markets posted comp sales gains in the second quarter. Conversion, units per transaction, and average sale growth fueled the performance in our stores. We believe this demonstrates the strength of our assortment and the effectiveness of our customer engagement.

In terms of store real estate, we opened 1 new store in each of late July and early August, and we currently expect to open 1 additional store in mid-November. We also closed 1 store in mid-July and currently expect to close 1 store in each of late September and December, and 2 more at the end of January to finish the year with 218 total stores in operation. In fiscal 2027, we are tentatively targeting to open 5 to 8 new stores, depending on available opportunities and our ability to achieve appropriate lease economics. Our e-commerce business grew by 20.9% in the second quarter. Expanding our presence across the platforms our customers use most, including TikTok and other emerging channels, has been an important evolution of our online capabilities.

We believe our improved focus on social media platforms has helped reach new audiences based on our TikTok follower count nearly doubling to over 325,000 and our 1-year active loyalty program membership growing by 20% to 4.6 million members since this time last year. We need both stores and online performing well to reach our profitability goals, and we are encouraged by our customers' response to our product offerings and content across all touchpoints. In terms of technology investments, I already noted our investment in AI price optimization that was launched in October last year. We are also about to launch an AI-driven smart inventory allocation tool to improve accuracy in terms of units, sizing, and balance across our fleet of stores and online.

We will also implement RFID in our stores in early 2027, starting with footwear, to improve customer experience and in-store efficiency relating to size availability. These investments clearly indicate that we're moving forward with confidence and conviction as we continue to invest in the future of our business while we continue building our turnaround momentum. In closing, I want to once again thank and recognize our stores, field management, distribution centers, and home office teams for everything they've accomplished together this past year. There's still work ahead of us as we work toward returning to historical levels of profitability, but we are encouraged by the progress we've made and confident in the direction of the business. We look forward to updating you as we continue to execute against our long-term plan.

I will now turn the call over to Mike to walk through the details of our fiscal 2026 second quarter operating performance and to introduce our third quarter outlook.

Michael Henry

Thanks, [ Nate ]. Details regarding our operating results for the second quarter of fiscal 2026 compared to last year's second quarter were as follows. Total net sales were $163.5 million, an increase of $12.3 million, or 8.1%. Total comparable net sales, including both physical stores and e-commerce, increased by 12.1%, marking our third consecutive quarter of double-digit comparable net sales increases. Total net sales from physical stores increased by 5.1% despite operating 12 fewer stores, or 5.2% less, than at the end of last year's second quarter, and represented 78.9% of total net sales for the quarter compared to 81.1% last year. E-commerce net sales increased by 20.9% and represented 21.1% of total net sales for the quarter compared to 18.9% last year.

Gross margin including buying, distribution, and occupancy expenses improved by 300 basis points to 35.5% of net sales from 32.5% of net sales last year. Product margins improved by 140 basis points compared to last year, primarily due to improved full-price selling of inventories that were more current in terms of aging and improved productivity from selling of clearance items. Buying, distribution, and occupancy costs improved by 160 basis points due to carrying these costs against higher net sales this year. Lower occupancy costs associated with our reduced store count were largely offset by higher e-commerce shipping expenses associated with e-commerce net sales growth.

Total SG&A expenses were $49.9 million, or 30.5% of net sales, compared to $46.4 million, or 30.7% of net sales last year. SG&A improved by 20 basis points as a percentage of net sales due to carrying these expenses against higher net sales this year. Bonus accruals associated with our significantly improved operating performance exceeding budgeted sales and earnings targets added $1.5 million to the quarter. Marketing expenses increased by $0.8 million in support of our net sales growth. Store payroll and related benefits increased by $0.6 million, but improved by 70 basis points as a percentage of net sales. Pre-tax income was $8.5 million, or 5.2% of net sales, compared to $3.1 million, or 2.1% of net sales last year.

Income tax expense was $86,000, or 1% of pre-tax income, compared to an income tax benefit of $41,000, or 1.3% of pre-tax income last year. Both years' income tax results include the continuing impact of a full non-cash deferred tax asset valuation allowance. Net income was $8.4 million, or $0.27 per diluted share, compared to $3.2 million, or $0.10 per diluted share last year, representing an improvement of $5.2 million, or $0.17 per diluted share compared to last year's second quarter. As [ Nate ] noted earlier, this represents our fifth consecutive quarter of year-over-year profit improvement, and we have now returned to profitability on a trailing 4-quarter basis for the first time since the end of fiscal 2022, and we are profitable on a year-to-date basis for the first half of fiscal 2026.

On our debt-free balance sheet, we ended the second quarter with total cash and investments of $62.2 million, an increase of $11.5 million compared to $50.7 million at the end of last year's second quarter. We had no borrowings at any time with available undrawn borrowing capacity of $63.3 million under our asset-backed credit facility at the end of the second quarter. Total balance sheet inventory decreased by 1.3% compared to the end of last year's second quarter, while being several percentage points more current within 90 days aged than a year ago. Looking to the third quarter of fiscal 2026, total comparable net sales for fiscal August ended August 29, 2026, increased by 14.6% relative to the comparable period of last year, marking our 13th consecutive month of comparable net sales growth.

Based on current and historical trends, we estimate the following ranges for the third quarter of fiscal 2026. Net sales of approximately $150 million to $155 million, translating to a comparable net sales increase range of 10% to 14% respectively, which if achieved would represent our fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit percentage comp sales growth. Product margins to be slightly improved relative to last year's third quarter. SG&A of approximately $47 million to $49 million, excluding any potential non-cash asset impairment charges. An estimated effective income tax rate in the low to mid-teens as a percentage of pre-tax income with a continuing impact of a full non-cash valuation allowance on our deferred tax assets.

Net income in the range of approximately $2.2 million to $3.7 million, respectively, to net sales and earnings per diluted share of $0.07 to $0.12, respectively, based on approximately 32 million diluted shares. This compares to a net loss of $1.4 million, or $0.05 per share, during last year's third quarter. These results would represent a sixth consecutive quarter of year-over-year profit improvement for us. We expect to end the third quarter with 240 total stores after 1 new store opening and 1 closure during the quarter, which represents a net decrease of 10 stores, or 4.3%, compared to the end of last year's third quarter.

We expect to end the third quarter with total liquidity of approximately $125 million or more, comprised of cash and investments of approximately $62 million to $65 million, and available undrawn borrowing capacity of approximately $63 million under our asset-backed credit facility. We'll now go to our Q&A session. Thank you.

Operator

We will now be conducting a question and answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Matt Koranda with Roth Capital Partners, LLC. Please proceed with your question.

Phần hỏi đáp

Matt Koranda

I guess the August comp that you cited approaching about 15%, accelerating off of the 12% you put up in the second quarter, despite the tougher comparison that you got going on on a year-over-year basis. So I guess maybe just speak to that acceleration that you're seeing, what's working in the assortment, any incremental benefit from the TikTok Shop initiatives or other kinds of drivers that are driving that acceleration.

Michael Henry

Well, really everything, as we mentioned, almost everything was double-digit positive in the second quarter, and that continued on through August. All departments but footwear were up double digits. It was broad-based across geographies. So really doing well just about anywhere you look. Really nice to see that kind of momentum continue all the way through the back-to-school season.

Matt Koranda

Okay, and then I noticed, I mean, inventory really tight and good performance there. Curious how you feel about sort of the assortment and the setup into the fall period here as you gear up for holiday? Are we in chase mode? How should we think about sort of inventory movement in the back half of the year as you sort of set up for the holiday season?

Nate Smith

Yes, good question, Matt. So we, you know, we feel very strongly about how we're set up. We were, throughout the back-to-school season, we were largely speaking where we needed to be. There was a little bit of a gap in footwear. We chased some there, but going into fall and obviously heading into holiday, we feel good about where we're at. The team has done a nice job obviously managing the inventories where sales were up 8% on inventory down 1% in dollars in the second quarter, which is a great sign. So we feel good about the second quarter, and we feel strongly about how we're sorted and how we're preparing for the third quarter and holiday.

But overall, we continually sharpen our assortment. So we like where we're at. We were well positioned for back-to-school. But our CMO and team are continually sharpening the assortment every single week.

Matt Koranda

Okay. And then maybe just 1 or 2 more from you here. The inflection in the business and the acceleration that you're seeing in comp, has that changed the discussion with some of the vendors that historically you'd wanted to bring into the store, some of the brands that you were looking at bringing in but hadn't been able to before? I mean, maybe just speak to where the assortment sits in terms of the brand portfolio that is in existence now, and what you have available to you with the better performance here.

Nate Smith

Yeah, it's a good question. I don't think the inflection of the business has a bearing on those conversations. I mean, we are a strong retailer, and the brands that we are speaking to understand what we have to offer as far as a customer base and our store experience. So, you know, generally speaking, the conversations we have with brands we want to bring in revolves more around, you know, is it a great fit for Tillys as opposed to the business is reaching an inflection point and now we're ready to engage with Tillys. So we feel good about where we're at. There are some brands on our radar that we are actively going after, and we feel good about our, you know, respect, you know, possibly bringing those in.

Matt Koranda

Okay. And maybe just last 1 on the, on what's built into the guidance from an operating leverage standpoint. I guess maybe Mike, I would have assumed with the really strong positive comp that you're guiding for the third quarter that maybe we'd get a little bit of leverage out of SG&A, but it doesn't look like that's built in at least at the midpoint. So maybe just speak to what are the, I guess, what are the things holding it back? I would assume maybe bonus accrual, but any other items to think about that are kind of keeping SG&A sort of growing in lockstep with sales?

Michael Henry

Yes. SG&A should have a little bit of improvement as a percent of sales relative to last year's third quarter. Similarly to what you see in the second quarter, we were 20 basis points better. Most accruals are coming into that, given that we've returned to profitability and generating strong product margins and everything. Beating our targets significantly. That's an expense that hasn't existed in our model for 4 years. So it's a non-comparable if you think about that. And so as long as we can continue to execute the way that we've been executing, you might see similar sorts of movements from bonus in particular, that would maybe add a little more to SG&A than what you would typically expect.

Matt Koranda

Okay, got you. I'll end it there, guys. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of [ Gao Shui ] with Singular Research. Please proceed with your question.

Unknown Analyst

Nice quarter, guys. Just on the question of third quarter guidance, with August already at kind of 15, what's the single biggest swing factor that decides what's going to happen? Or barrier to landing at the top end of the range?

Michael Henry

Yes, good question. Most of the scenarios that we look at do point towards the upper end of our range. But when you look over the recent years, 3 of the last 4 years, our comp actually decelerated after back-to-school finished. And you got out of what I'll refer to as the need-based period of the quarter. We did see 3 of the last 4 years that September slowed by about 8 comp points relative to August. And that was consistent through 2022, 2023, and 2024. Last year was the exception where September was consistent with August and then October actually accelerated.

We're taking into account where we are. More of the scenarios that we've looked at do point to the upper end of the range as being the most likely landing point, but we are allowing for what if there is a deceleration like there has been in 3 of the most recent 4 years in the September-October timeframe, and acknowledging that October will be the toughest comparison of the quarter, even though it's the smallest month of the quarter, given it had the strongest performance of the quarter in last year's third quarter.

Unknown Analyst

Got you. Okay. You said the merchandise commitments that you won't be chasing. But fourth quarter last year comped to around 10.1, and that's kind of generally a hard lap you've faced. Does the 2-year stack, as you're seeing in August, give you confidence that you can hold a double-digit comp against that, are we still kind of planning for a single-digit or planning to stack to flatten out?

Michael Henry

Well, we haven't issued any kind of specific guidance for fourth quarter yet. We always just go 1 quarter at a time. But looking at the 2-year would suggest that we can comp the 10%. Whether or not it's in single digits or double digits, we'll see that when we get into the holiday season. I'd really love, I think we'd all really love it if we could see us double digit on top of double digit. That would be phenomenal. But, you know, I can't predict the future with any specificity to know whether that's coming or not. But I can tell you we're certainly planning for and expecting for us to have a positive comp in the fourth quarter. To what extent, I don't know. It's too early.

Unknown Analyst

Got you. With the e-commerce industry, you said the low occupancy costs were largely offset by higher e-commerce shipping this quarter. E-commerce was around 28% fourth quarter last year. As the mix, highest mix, does buying and distribution and occupancy still leverage on a positive comp?

Michael Henry

It has been. As we've been producing the comps that we've got. Occupancy, from an accounting perspective, most of it is recognized on a straight-line basis over the life of the lease. So occupancy dollars, all things being equal in terms of store count, you would expect occupancy to stay pretty stable dollars-wise. And then there are relatively fixed elements of distribution as well. Things that move within distribution are e-commerce shipping and shipping costs to our stores, depending on volume, number of units and boxes that we're shipping. So that's the variable element of distribution that can move around. And then buying is just the buying team. So it's the salaries and efforts of the buying team. So that stays pretty consistent from quarter to quarter as well.

Unknown Analyst

I'll make this my last question. [ Nate ], you said this is your first profitable year since 2022. I know your landlords must be hearing that too. So how many of your leases come up for renewal in the next 12 months, and what part of that renewal spread will be looking like versus expiring rent?

Nate Smith

I know Mike's got the actual numbers, and we're already engaged with many of our landlords. Every year we have leases that expire that will begin negotiating. In the prior years, we're negotiating now for extensions on those stores that are coming due, no different than any other year. Mike, you know, do you have the exact numbers?

Michael Henry

Yeah, we have 20 lease decisions left to make for this fiscal year by the time the end of the fiscal year comes, and we would anticipate keeping all 20 of those stores. Next year we have roughly 60 to 65 lease decisions to make for leases that are expiring during fiscal 2027. We're starting to have conversations about 2027 expirations. We've agreed to certain things already. So it's a constant effort working through the lease expirations that are coming up anywhere in the next 6 to 12 to 18 months. And that will continue as we sit here today. We don't know of any additional closures that would come up. There likely will be some as we go forward, but it's just not clear what that number is. The great majority of our leases tend to expire towards the end of the fiscal year. As it relates to 2027, most of those decisions are still 15 months out, 16 months out.

Unknown Analyst

Thank you, guys. Congratulations, and I'll get back to you.

Operator

Thank you. And we have reached the end of the question and answer session. I would like to turn the floor back over to CEO [ Nate Smith ] for closing remarks.

Nate Smith

Thank you for joining us on the call today, and we look forward to sharing more progress with you during our third quarter earnings call in early December. Have a good evening.

Operator

Thank you, and this concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect your lines at this time.