Cuộc họp báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh quý 2 năm 2026 của Daqo New Energy (DQ): Thua lỗ, dự báo về Polysilicon và mở rộng AIDC

Điểm tin chính

• Doanh thu tăng lên 62,7 triệu USD từ mức 26,7 triệu USD trong quý 1 năm 2026 khi Daqo New Energy khôi phục hoạt động bán hàng bình thường vào tháng 6. Doanh thu đạt 75,0 triệu USD trong quý 2 năm 2025.
• Lỗ ròng phân bổ cho cổ đông thu hẹp so với quý trước xuống 81,0 triệu USD, từ mức 88,0 triệu USD trong quý 1 năm 2026. Lỗ trên mỗi ADS cơ bản cải thiện lên 1,20 USD từ 1,31 USD.
• Sản lượng polysilicon đạt 43.675 tấn, vượt mức hướng dẫn của ban lãnh đạo là 35.000–40.000 tấn. Giá bán trung bình giảm xuống 4,04 USD/kg.
• Ban lãnh đạo đưa ra hướng dẫn sản lượng quý 3 năm 2026 là 40.000–45.000 tấn và giữ nguyên hướng dẫn sản lượng cả năm ở mức 160.000–180.000 tấn.
• Dự phòng giảm giá hàng tồn kho giảm xuống 55,7 triệu USD, từ mức 98,9 triệu USD trong quý 1, nhưng giá polysilicon yếu đã dẫn đến khoản lỗ gộp 82,7 triệu USD.
• Daqo kết thúc tháng 6 với 555,3 triệu USD tiền mặt, các khoản tiền gửi và đầu tư đáng kể, và theo ban lãnh đạo là không có nợ. Công ty cũng đang phát triển thiết bị điện cho các trung tâm dữ liệu AI như một mảng kinh doanh tăng trưởng tiềm năng thứ hai.

Dữ liệu tài chính cốt lõi

Trong 6 tháng kết thúc ngày 30 tháng 6 năm 2026, các hoạt động kinh doanh đã sử dụng 276 triệu USD tiền mặt, so với 105 triệu USD cùng kỳ năm trước.

Kết quả kinh doanh và hoạt động

Daqo đã sản xuất 43.675 tấn polysilicon trong quý. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết ban đầu công ty hạn chế bán hàng dưới giá thành theo hướng dẫn tự điều chỉnh của ngành tại Trung Quốc, nhưng đã chuyển sang chiến lược bán hàng định hướng thị trường hơn sau khi việc triển khai chính sách kéo dài hơn dự kiến.

Hoạt động bán hàng tăng trong tháng 6 và tiếp tục cải thiện vào đầu quý 3. Tuy nhiên, giá bán trung bình giảm xuống 4,04 USD/kg, phản ánh nhu cầu yếu, áp lực tồn kho ngành và định giá dưới chi phí sản xuất.

Ban lãnh đạo đã dẫn chứng các biện pháp gần đây của Trung Quốc bao gồm tiêu thụ năng lượng, hạch toán chi phí và tuân thủ giá cả. Họ cho biết báo giá của nhà sản xuất đã vượt mức 40 Nhân dân tệ/kg, mặc dù khối lượng giao dịch vẫn ở mức thấp. Một mô hình chi phí ngành được tham chiếu trong cuộc họp ước tính chi phí sản xuất trung bình vào khoảng 50.000 Nhân dân tệ/tấn, trong khi tồn kho polysilicon toàn ngành ước tính khoảng 500.000–600.000 tấn.

Công ty đang mở rộng sang hạ tầng nguồn điện trung tâm dữ liệu AI, bao gồm máy biến áp bán dẫn, cầu dao bán dẫn, lưu trữ năng lượng và các giải pháp nguồn điện tích hợp. Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng sẽ hoàn thành mẫu thử nghiệm ban đầu vào cuối năm 2026 và mục tiêu bắt đầu bán hàng vào năm 2027, với đợt mở rộng thị trường lớn hơn dự kiến từ năm 2028 đến năm 2030.

Ban lãnh đạo mô tả tổng vốn đầu tư dự kiến cho dự án AIDC là 6 tỷ Nhân dân tệ, trong đó khoảng 3 tỷ Nhân dân tệ được cam kết cho giai đoạn đầu. Chi tiêu dự kiến năm 2026 khoảng 30 triệu–40 triệu USD, với các chi phí bổ sung được lên kế hoạch trong hai năm tiếp theo.

Daqo cũng đã đầu tư khoảng 1,2 tỷ Nhân dân tệ vào nhà xưởng và thiết bị polysilicon cấp bán dẫn. Quá trình kiểm định chất lượng từ khách hàng mất nhiều thời gian hơn dự kiến, nhưng ban lãnh đạo dẫn chứng nhu cầu thị trường ước tính khoảng 75.000 tấn hàng năm, so với sản lượng hiện tại của toàn ngành vào khoảng 57.000 tấn.

Kế hoạch hướng dẫn của Ban lãnh đạo

Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng thị phần polysilicon của Daqo sẽ duy trì ở mức khoảng 15% theo thời gian. Công ty cũng hướng tới mục tiêu giảm hàng tồn kho xuống mức tương đối thấp, đồng thời tránh bán hàng dưới chi phí sản xuất.

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết môi trường thị trường có thể cải thiện vào năm 2027, nhưng đánh giá thời điểm phục hồi giá vẫn chưa chắc chắn do cầu yếu và tồn kho ngành cao.

Rủi ro và các điểm cần theo dõi

• Giá polysilicon vẫn ở mức dưới chi phí sản xuất trong quý, tạo áp lực liên tục lên lợi nhuận gộp và dòng tiền.
• Tồn kho toàn ngành khoảng 500.000–600.000 tấn có thể làm chậm quá trình phục hồi giá bền vững.
• Hiệu quả của việc tự điều chỉnh trong ngành phụ thuộc vào việc thực thi quy định và sự tuân thủ của các nhà sản xuất.
• Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng các công suất kém hiệu quả hoặc yếu kém về tài chính sẽ rút lui trong 6 đến 18 tháng tới, nhưng thời điểm và quy mô vẫn chưa chắc chắn.
• Hạ tầng nguồn điện AIDC vẫn đang trong giai đoạn R&D và xây dựng cơ sở hạ tầng. Mục tiêu bán hàng thương mại vào năm 2027, trong khi tăng trưởng doanh thu đáng kể không dự kiến diễn ra cho đến giai đoạn 2028–2030.
• Quá trình kiểm định chất lượng của khách hàng đối với polysilicon cấp bán dẫn tiến triển chậm hơn so với dự kiến ban đầu của ban lãnh đạo.

Điểm nhấn phiên Hỏi & Đáp với chuyên viên phân tích

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết sáng kiến kỷ luật ngành mới nhất có thể bền vững hơn các nỗ lực trước đây vì nhận được sự hỗ trợ từ Tổng cục Quản lý Giám sát Thị trường Quốc gia Trung Quốc và không phụ thuộc vào việc phối hợp giá cả hay phân bổ sản lượng giữa các nhà sản xuất.

Về việc hợp lý hóa công suất, ban lãnh đạo ước tính công suất danh nghĩa của ngành gần 3 triệu tấn, trong khi công suất hiệu dụng đã ở mức dưới 2 triệu tấn. Công ty kỳ vọng các yêu cầu sử dụng năng lượng thắt chặt hơn, việc tự nguyện giảm sản lượng và tình hình tài chính yếu kém sẽ thúc đẩy thêm việc loại bỏ công suất.

Về mặt giá cả, ban lãnh đạo cho biết các giao dịch hạn chế đang diễn ra ở mức gần 40 Nhân dân tệ/kg. Một số nhà sản xuất tấm wafer có tồn kho thấp đã mua hàng phục vụ sản xuất ngay lập tức, nhưng hoạt động mua hàng diện rộng vẫn thận trọng.

Trong nửa cuối năm 2026, Daqo cho biết nhu cầu sản phẩm không phải là rào cản chính nhờ chất lượng sản phẩm của công ty. Thay vào đó, ban lãnh đạo nhấn mạnh vào việc đạt được mức giá hợp lý, tuân thủ hướng dẫn của chính phủ và tránh bán hàng dưới giá thành.

Toàn văn Biên bản Cuộc họp Báo cáo Kết quả Kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Welcome to the Daqo New Energy Second Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jessie Zhao, Investor Relations Director. Please go ahead.

Jessie Zhao

Hello, everyone. I'm Jessie Zhao, the Investor Relations Daqo New Energy. Thank you for joining our conference call today. Daqo New Energy issued its financial results for the second quarter of 2026, which can be found on our website at www.console.com.

Today, attending the conference call, we have our Chairman and CEO, Mr. Xiang Xu, our Deputy CEO, Mr. Anita Zhu, our CFO, Mr. Ming Yang and myself., Today's call will begin with an update from Mr. Xu, our market conditions and company operations. followed by a translation from [indiscernible] and then Mr. Yang will discuss the company's financial performance for the quarter.

After that, we will open the floor to Puna from the audience. Before we begin the formal remarks, I would like to remind you that certain statements on today's call, including expected future operational and financial performance and industry growth are forward-looking statements that are made under the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. This statement involve inherent risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statements.

Further information regarding this and other risks is included in the reports or documents we have filed with or furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission. These statements only reflect our current and preliminary view as of today and may be subject to change. Our ability to achieve these projections is subject to risks and uncertainties. All information provided in today's call is as of today, and we undertake no duty to update such information, except as required under applicable rules.

Also during the call, we will occasionally reference monetary amounts in U.S. dollar terms. Please keep in mind that our functional currency is the Chinese RMB. We offer those -- we'll offer these translations into U.S. dollars solely for the convenience of the audience.

Now I will turn the call to our Chairman and CEO, Mr. Xiang Xu, Mr. Xu, please go ahead.

Xiang Xu

[Interpreted]

Hi, everyone. This is Anita. I'll now than our Chairman, Mr. Xu's remarks. In the second quarter of 2026, market centers across the store industry remains cautious to make reformation the assay on elevated inventory levels, which drove prices lower cost solar value -- despite these headwinds included assumed sales in June, delivering a sequential increase in revenue and the narrowing of our quarterly operating and net losses -- throughout this period, we continue to maintain a robust and healthy balance sheet with 0 debt.

As of June 30, 2026, we held a cash balance of $555.3 million short-term investments of $250 million, that those cows of $71.7 million, how to mature invest $51 million and fixed term as upon the balance of [ $94.8 ] million. Together, these reveal convertible assets totaled USD 1.9 billion, providing us with ample liquidity, confidence and strategic flexibility to navigate the current market downturn.

On the operational front, we continued to pick proactive measures to navigate challenging market conditions with our nameplate capacity utilization rate, operating at approximately [indiscernible] the period. total production volume at our 2 Polycom facilities was 43,675 petric tonnes for the quarter, exceeding our guidance range of 35,000 metric tons to 40,000 metric tons. With Holotamarket prices remaining below production cost since the first quarter of 2026. Initially refrained from engaging in the below cost sales in line with top Chinese self-regulation guidelines. And adopted a disciplined way of the approach, pending further implementation of the national antipollution policies.

However, after an extensive period without clear policy updates, we adjusted our sales and pain strategies toward a more market-oriented approach G. As a result, our sales volume increased from 4,400 does 2 metric ton last quarter to 151 metric tons, with average selling price falling to USD 4.04 per too. Our wholesale transaction in shipment volumes have continued to pick up in the third quarter reflecting increased confidence in the quarter and an ongoing preference for products from customers.

On the cost side, solar production costs remained flat sequentially at USD 0.95 per kilogram with CAS costs edging down by 0.4% to USD 4.7 per ton and manufacturing cost in R&D terms to declining slightly. In light of the current market dynamics, we expect total position production volume in the third quarter of 2026 to be approximately 40,000 metric tons to 45,000 metric tons. For the full year, 2026 we expect production volume to be in the range of 160,000 metric tons to 180,000 metric tons.

Helical market prices came under further downward pressure during the second quarter with an high positive comprises falling from RMB 35 to RMB 37 per program at the end of the first quarter to RMB 313 per chogram at the end of the second quarter. Amidst odd demand, the price pricing and cumulating industry-wide inventory poison producer operated a low utilization rate with a you 5,381,000 metric in the first half representing a 9.8% year-on-year increase or decrease.

As we make our way through the third quarter, the continued rollout of Ntvolution measures sustaining momentum. July, a series of mandatory national standards were issued for energy consumption and product efficiencies across the Solar value including the final official version of a new standard, selling energy consumption limit per unit of police output, which will take effect on January also manufactured with unit energy consumption ex.3tmpertodan must complete corrective improvement by that date. -- or face the risk of plant shutdown.

Notably, the threshold of 6.3% sicker than 6.4% proposing a draft signal regulators' commitment to accelerating the phaseout of inefficient capacity. On Slide 7, the China Potomoac Industry Association issued the general principle for cost accounting model in the photo industry initiative to regulate market competition and advance to standardize industry governance at foundation for tieregulation inforce. On July 31, these allocation for market regulation issue price compliance guidelines for the solar PV sector, promoting a structural shift from price competition on value-driven differentiation.

The SAMR enters solar PV company must conduct price compliance self-review and curtirational low-priced competition and that KPIs industry self-regulation promote the general principle and give companies away from the legal pricing processes such as too companies. The SAMR also indicated that we'll take enforcement actions against noncompliant entities. Together with some other public company faster, we jointly signed an initiative to eliminate world-class sales and polyol with underantion standards on August 1.

As a result of these elective measures ostomies are beginning to show signs of recovery, with spot prices stabilizing and lower prices rebounding by more than 10% from their lease as growth. We're also diversifying beyond our full polysome business to head against solar PV class ecology, targeting the fast-growing AI data center, power infrastructure market.

On June 2026, we announced the signing of investment agreements to establish a manufacturing base focused on the R&D, manufacturing and sales of next-generation energy solutions and related equipment for ADC. This includes energy storage systems, solid space, transformers and solid saturable. These technologies support the industry and the central high-voltage direct current architecture such as the [indiscernible] PC standard advanced line of idea and other leading AI infrastructure providers. The platform is entered by Dako Group, our affiliated entity under common basical ownership of Daphne Energy which brings over 40 years of color equipment many backing expertise at Davos technology and deep talent and customer relationships accelerate our contango the segment.

We view of AIBD power infrastructure as a structural growth opportunity that complements our core business and broaden our earnings base, consistent with our strong track record having navigated several postevent cycles, we intend to pursue the expansion in a disciplined manner that preserves our balance sheet strain. Despite a challenging environment, authority industry continues to exhibit a compelling long-term growth process. Growing on our billings in global energy markets have misread concern about national energy security in which the solar PBM renewable energy sector can play a crucial role as 1 of the world's lowest cost producers of the highest quality and type of month rugby robust balance sheet and see debt, we remain optimistic about the sector and are well positioned to capitalize on an anticipated market recovery and long-term growth opportunities.

We'll continue to strengthen our competitive edge sure advancement, the high-efficiency antitechnology and cost optimization via digital transformation and adoption as the world accelerates its transition in energy, we're confident in our ability to create a leading role in shaping that future. And now I'll turn the call to our CFO, Mr. Li, who will discuss the company's financial performance for the quarter. Min, please go ahead.

Ming Yang

Thank you, Anita, and hello, everyone. This is Ming Yang, CFO of Daqo New Energy. We appreciate you joining our earnings conference call today. I will now go over the company's second quarter 2026 financial performance. Revenues were $62.7 million compared to $26.7 million in the first quarter of 2026 and $75 million in the second quarter of 2025. The increase in revenue compared to the first quarter of 2026 was primarily driven by our sales volume. The company resumed normal sales activity starting in June following a prolonged period with no new policy development. .

Gross loss was $82.7 million compared to $39 million in the first quarter of 2026 and $81.4 million in the second quarter of 2025. Gross margin was negative [indiscernible] and compared to negative 520% in the first quarter of 2026, a negative 108% in the second quarter of 2025. The sequential improvement in group gross margin was primarily due to a decrease in provisions for inventory impairment, which was $55.7 million in the second quarter of 2026 compared to $98.9 million in the first quarter of 2026. G&A expenses were $13.8 million compared to $12.2 million in the first quarter of 2026 and $32 million in the second quarter of 2025.

The sequential increase was primarily due to higher sales volume in the second quarter of 2026. The year-over-year decrease was also due to the company's recognizing 18.6 [indiscernible] noncash share-based compensation costs related to its share incentive plan in the same quarter of 2025. R&D expenses were $1.6 million compared to $0.8 million in the first quarter of 2026 and $0.8 million in the second quarter of 2025.

The increase is primarily due to R&D of next-generation energy solutions for AIDC power infrastructure. R&D expenses can vary from period to period and reflect R&D activities that take place during the quarter. Loss from operations was $98 million compared to $50.8 million in the first quarter of 2026 and $12 million in the second quarter of. Operating margin was negative 156% compared to negative 60% in the first quarter of 2026 and negative 152% in the second quarter 2025.

Net loss attributable to Durg Corp shareholders was $81 million compared to $88 million in the first quarter of 2026 and $76.5 million in the second quarter of 2025. Loss per basic ADS was $1.20 compared to $1.31 in the first quarter of 2026 and $14 in the second quarter of 2025. Adjusted net loss attributable to -- do New Energy shareholders, excluding noncash share-based compensation costs, was $81 million compared to $88.4 million in the first quarter of 2026 and $67.9 million this. Adjusted loss per basic ADS was $1.20 compared to $1.31 in the first quarter of 2026 and $0.86 in the same quarter was negative $29 million compared to negative $83 million in the first quarter of 2026 and negative $48 million in the same quarter of 2025. ITDA margin was negative 46.8% and compared to negative 31% in the first quarter of 2026, and negative 64% in the same quarter.

Now on the company's financial condition. As of June 30, 2026, the company had $555 million in cash and tax equivalent compared to $559.4 million monarch 31, 2026 at $198.6 million 8.25% -- and as of June 30, 26, short-term investment was $215 million compared to $88 million as of March 31, 2026, and $18 million of -- as of June 30, 26, no receivable balance was $71.7 million compared to $20.8 million as of March 31, 2026 and $49 million as of June 30, 25 no receivable balance, which represent bank notes with maturity within 6 months.

As of June 30, 2026, held-to-maturity investment was $51 million compared to $50.3 million at the March 3126 and as of June 30, 2025. And as of June 30, 2026, the balance of fixed term deposits within 1 year, was $928.9 million compared to $1 billion as of March 31, 2026 and $160.7 million as of June 30, 25 -- now on the company's cash flows. For the 6 months ended June 30, 2026, net cash used in operating activities was $276 million compared to $105 million in the same period 2 and for 6 months ended June 30, 2026, net cash used in investing activities was $19.6 million compared to $22.7 million in the same period of 2025.

Net cash used in investing activities in 2026 was primarily related to the purchase of short-term investments and fixed-term deposits. For the 6 months ended June 30, 2026. Net cash using finance activities was $7.8 million compared to $32,000 in the same period of 2020. The Net cash used in finance activities in 2026 was primarily related to $7.8 million in stock purchases made by the company's subsidiary Xinjiang from its minority shareholders. And that concludes our prepared remarks.

We will now open the call to Q&A from the audience. Operator, please begin.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Philip Shen with Rock Capital Partners.

Phần hỏi đáp

Unknown Analyst

This is Oscar Jim on for Shell. Can you hear me okay?

Ming Yang

Yes, you're allowing clear.

Unknown Analyst

I have 2 questions. First question is on government support on poly pricing -- even with the recent 10% rebound in forward prices, poly ASP remained below industry production costs since late -- how would you characterize the central government stance on supply rationalization -- are you anticipating any incremental regulatory support that could help establish a sustainable price for in the near term? And then I have a follow-up.

Unknown Executive

Okay. We're going to translate your question and then.

Unknown Executive

[Interpreted] I will translate for our CEO, Mr. Xi Okay. On August 6, led by the China's photovoltaic Industry Association, there is strong initiative for self discipline. And based on the CTIA cost model, the industry average cost is estimated production cost estimate to be around RMB 50,000 per ton, so about per kilogram -- but due to the current market environment where demand activity is relatively low. -- and there's still approximately 500,000 to 600,000 tons of par inventory in the industry.

So we think the price recovery might take a little bit longer than anticipated, but there is a strong consensus within the industry for self discipline and also with the urging of the government and the related departments. -- that English consensus is that it's no longer viable to sell below cost. And what we're seeing in the market is that the quotations for polysilicon pricing from different manufacturers have already exceeded RMB 40 per kilogram. So we're optimistic about the current policy development, and we're waiting to see how the policies may be enforced going forward.

Ming Yang

[Interpreted] So let me translate for Mr. Xi. So right now, the industry in terms of the value chain between the buyers and sellers of polysilicon. So some of the buyers are still observing the market and the policy development and they're taking a wait-and-see approach. But in terms of the past manufacturers or expecting a reasonable price where they would not be selling at a loss or below their cost. So there's still some you can call it a wait-and-see between the possible manufacturers and the downstream. But we do believe that the past industry practice of selling below cost, especially in the first 6 months of the year is likely to end and where the government is very element about preventing dumping of the products and selling below cost. .

So within the lot framework for price low and for the anti-evolution expectation is that this is likely to move forward optimistically over the next several months. And then we know that over the past few years, the polycican manufacturers of the whole industry in general have seeing significant losses, and we do not think that this is long term sustainable. In fact, it is very unsustainable, and this is likely to lead to the industry in trouble.

So if we look at Daqo especially in December of last year when the anti-evolution policy was more successful, right? So EQ had no cash loss in Q4 2025. So we were able to achieve a positive operating cash flow during that period. So we think that that's a more sustainable the timing of framework going forward.

Unknown Analyst

Ms. Yan. Just my second question is on the self-discipline agreement signed in August previous rounds of cell regulation kind of struggle to maintain compliance once prices fluctuated -- just wondering what makes this framework structurally distant from past attempts. And then regarding the energy consumption requirements -- what is your estimate of total industry capacity that could be phased out.

Operator

Our next question comes from Alan Lou with Jefferies.

Ming Yang

We're still answering nontax rating. -- hold on on -- let's give us a minute. .

Operator

All right. We have Philip Chan back on the podium. My apologies.

Ming Yang

[Interpreted] Okay. Now let me translate for Mr. Xi. So we believe that the current round of anti evolution policy and with the price on enforcement is likely to sustain -- what we saw in the previous round was that even with the proposal for the industry consolidation platform, right, to accelerate the excess capacity. And but the stay and nutrition for market regulation stepped in because they were very worried about antimonopoly practices between the manufacturers the leading manufacturers.

So they will worry that this would bring a nonmarket activities or behaviors by the main manufacturers. But this time, this -- the current effort is led by the same administration for market regulation and this is bring self discipline forward. And also this is not, for example, there's no coordination between the manufacturers on pricing or allocating allocation of soon, for example, right? So those times is really based on each individual manufacturers, their own cost -- production costs, right, and in terms of their manufacturing efficiencies and for them to sell products based on their ability to produce products at a lower cost, okay? So we think that this time it's actually a much more sustainable and is being supported by the government -- so we think that -- so through these 2 efforts, right? So 1 is by being 1 of the lower-cost producers within the industry as well as with the regulations energy usage.

We think that this time, it will promote a more market-oriented approach to both capacity exits and the selling of products at a reasonable price. And this is all under the current legal framework brought forward by the government.

Operator

Our next question comes from Alan Lou with Jefferies.

Alan Lau

Management -- so my first question is a follow-up on the overall initiative to avoid selling below cost. So my understanding is that current inventory in the industry is at quite a high level. And the end demand is also quite weak at the same time. So when would you expect the poly price? For example, you mentioned the price quotes at 4 per kilogram -- but given that their inventory at the wafer players and demand isn't that strong? Or when would you expect the first or like batch of transaction at a higher price to happen? Because in the past 2 weeks, all the data has halted. So I would like to know when will we expect the real transaction is coming out.

Ming Yang

Okay. Let me translate for [indiscernible] . [Interpreted]

Okay. Let me translate for Mr. Xi. Okay. I think he's seeing in the market that there is some transactions happening roughly RMB 40,000 per ton or about RMB 40 per kilogram, although there's a very low volume of transactions right now. even though the overall demand is relatively weak, but there are some wafer producers in the industry that have a very low to no inventory where they are procuring to production. So right now -- so we are seeing some transactions though not very high. What we're seeing is some manufacturers are testing the market.

So although the full cost model would stipulate around per kilogram. Some producers are right now testing the market and selling at approximately RMB 40 per kilogram. -- right now. And so it's been about 2 weeks since the announcement of the manufacturers and the guidance from the government. So we do think that going forward, we are likely to see more and more transactions happen at this new price range.

Alan Lau

Certainly based on the production costs, probably system price would be higher than that. But given that in this round of the anti-flution initiatives, there is not an acquisition plan afterwards. So if prices goes up to 40 or maybe RMB 45 or RMB 50 biogas what do you think would happen because effectively the -- this will reach to the cost level of more players. So like who would be able to sell their products or -- what do you think the end game of this round of initiatives? Or is there some capacities would be shut down because of the higher energy consumption requirement? Or like how you see...

Ming Yang

[Interpreted]

Okay, let me translate for Mr. Xi, okay. He thinks that the recent energy quota policy from the government where there's different energy usage requirements for the industry, imbues will lead to Fork exit of a significant amount of capacity that have a significant overall higher energy usage. So we're likely to see that happen pretty soon. And then also the industry self-discipline and there's a commitment from the various manufacturers that there should be a voluntary reduction of capacity or production. And then also there's a commitment that the manufacturers should not be selling below production cost.

So we think that -- both of these are likely to happen starting in the second half of this year. And then -- there's also the issue that not that many producers actually have the capability to produce especially now that the industry is running at a fairly low utilization level. So a lot of manufacturers have like a significant number of people. So there is actually a lack of employees and also lack of training and time. So a lot of capacity that has been shut down is unlikely to restart. -- going forward.

So even now, we think that, for example, the effective capacity is within the industry, midsoclose to 3 million tons. -- have been billed as capacity is already less than 2 million tonnes right now. It's likely to go lower as well.

Alan Lau

My last question is about the IPC initiative on -- as a second growth driver of the company. I wonder if there's or the backlog or progress our share on this bill business?

Ming Yang

[Interpreted]

Okay. Let me translate for Mr. Xi. So we do see that the IDC-related power infrastructure and equipment market is actually a very viable sector where is going to be a significant growth driver for the company, and the second sector that companies turning into. So I think most investors are probably aware that we do think the growth for the political market going forward is likely to be relatively low in terms of volume demand as well as solar. So the company is actively looking for other areas of growth. .

And because Dako Group has more than 40 years of experience in the power equipment sector and being 1 of the leading manufacturer and supplier of high and low voltage on power equipment such as transformer and circuit breakers. So our group is seeing a very strong demand, especially in AI data center-related power equipment demand -- so we do think this is a very significant and real opportunity for the company. And Dako Group brings many years of experience and advantage in manufacturing in R&D and in technology capability. So in terms of products, as well.

So with the growing power demand and especially for the next-generation power structure where he led by NVIDIA, the future development of a next generation of equipment under the 800-volt DC infrastructure for -- so we're targeting initially in the solid state transformer and salsa circuit breaker market. So the industry is starting in 2027 next year. And then we expect to see very significant growth from 2028 to 2030 and with power demand from on these new AI data centers based on the new 800-volt TC technology.

So with Dakos brings significant experience and Vantage. And at the same time, matching with Dako New Energy's strong balance sheet and capital position, right, to capture this growth driver -- so now we have built an R&D team in Shanghai, and we expect to have an initial product ready by year-end. And then with prototypes and achieving sales starting in 2027 and then capturing the growth opportunity 2028 to and our goal to become an industry leader within this IDC power equipment sector by being a Tier 1, both in terms of product and the team. So that's our current goal right now.

Alan Lau

Yes. Thanks a lot for management to explain .

Ming Yang

Great. Thank you, Alan. .

Operator

Our next question comes from Mona Wang with Goldman Sachs.

Unknown Analyst

Sure. I have 2 questions. One is related to the Poly business and other to the IDC business. So first, in terms of the poly business, I think you just mentioned like currently, the industry upstream and downstream players is kind of wait and see -- and given the downstream inventory is at a relatively higher level, I'm not sure what.

The Hongkong do you expect for after the wait-and-see period. And particularly, we had this kind of sale display in first half, like we uphold our pricing and then we record lower shipments. So I'm wondering like -- do you have any shipment guidance towards the end of the year. What's our priority going forward, will we upward pricing to the higher level. The payout per ton or we are kind of want to reach the balance between price or shipments. So I want to hear more about the poly business operation strategy.

Ming Yang

Okay. Okay. So let me transfer your question for Mr. Xi. [Interpreted]

Okay. Let me translate for Mr. S. So in the second half, we believe is that because Daunt, we have a superior quality product in the market. So selling and shipping our product is really not an issue. I think the question is really price. So in the first half, because we adhere to self-discipline, so we did not sell as much products as our normal market share. So -- because our competitors were engaged in below-cost sales practices. But if we look at our market share in the past, we believe that we can achieve approximately 15% market share within the industry, and we continue to expect that going forward.

So our target is to sell at an appropriate price or a resin price also be fully complying with the government guidance and the price low. So what we expect is that, say, in the next 6 to 18 months, we're likely to see forced exit or a market-based exit of manufacturers with high production costs or manufacturers with poor cash positions or poor cash flow. -- so companies with not a good balance is likely to struggle continue to struggle. -- going forward, while a new energy with our cash position and our strong balance sheet also our high product quality and low cost, we expect that we're likely to do better. to do well in the market.

So especially in 2027, where we expect to see a much improved and better market environment. And then we expect to continue to lower our inventory going forward to a relatively low inventory levels. That's our target.

Unknown Analyst

Okay. Thank you. So can I conclude that we will hold up the price in your term, and we will wait the rest of the marginal players to exit and then we -- that's the time we will see fast inventory depletion and recovery of the shipment is likely to occur in the net of 6 to 18 months?

Ming Yang

I think in terms of pricing, right, so I mean we cannot sell below cost, right? So we're going to adhere to that. And at the same time, we'll look from to sell at a reasonable price. And yes, and then -- and then for the market to have additional capacity yes. .

Unknown Analyst

Okay. That's super clear. And my second question about IDC. I think we have put out announcements like we have investment billion in the first phase. And you just mentioned, we will have sales volume reported in next year. So just wondering, can you share a bit more about the plan for the special our CapEx time line and the source of capital for this 6 billion or 2 billion enhancement? And what's our expected payback duration for the first phase of the production base? And what's the normalized apotbiliti from this business, do we expect will achieve and also for other like operating metrics will we have more other sources allocated for this new business development or we can use some of the synergies our Dacogroup aligned company. So a lot of details but can you share a bit more regarding to this net metrics.

Ming Yang

Okay. Okay. Let me translate your question first quickly. Okay, hold on, [Interpreted]

Okay. Let me translate for Mr. Xi. Okay. I think, first of all, let me just clarify on the investments involved -- so even though the total project anticipated investment is RMB 6 billion. We're only committing the first phase right now, which is about RMB 3 billion, which will cover all of South State transformers, satiabreaker and also our e-house total solution for infrastructure and also some related to energy storage. And so the remaining $4 billion is not committed as of today. So -- and it will be planned sometime in the future. And then in terms of our strategy, so we're focusing on IT-related power infrastructure or equipment.

And then we expect to have 3 primary products. right, right? So 1 is a total solution or a package solution for -- which is going to be a plug and play kind of solution for AI infrastructure. which has all the related power equipment and then also our salsa transformers and solid state titbreakers and so it includes the related software and control. And there is very significant synergy with Dako Group, where we -- because of Dr. Coop's experience and know-how and also their position within the market. And we think that is actually we can receive significant orders from customers.

And so we're now in the phase of doing R&D and also the building of related manufacturing facilities. And the R&D team is now in place, and we continue to expect to have our prototype ready by year-end. -- and getting these products. So in terms of 2026 and 2027 is really a preparation period and introduction of the product into the market. And we think that the market will see a high growth phase from 2028 to 2030 and where we do expect a significant ramp-up of revenue during this period. for these related products and business.

Unknown Analyst

For the $2 billion committed investment, we will spend in 2026.

Ming Yang

Over the next 2 years, this year is only about I think it's only maybe USD 30 million to USD 40 million this year. And then the remaining will be over the next 2 years Yes. .

Unknown Analyst

Sure. SP1 That's all from me. Thank you.

Ming Yang

And then our CEO will make additional comments. [Interpreted]

Okay. And Mr. Xi will provide an update on our semiconductor polysilicon and business where the company has spent a total investment, including land and related equipment facilities of about RMB 1.2 billion into the business. And we've been doing a product trial production and also in terms of qualification with our customers. And the qualification cycle has been much longer than we anticipated, but we're continuing to do this. And he's very optimistic that he's looking at very significant market demand where specimen for seminate poly is roughly 75,000 tons per year.

While right now, the current industry production for semiconductor poly only about 57,000 tons per year. So it's letting a very significant growth for this product, this market sector. So we're going to wrap up and we integrate our activities for this.

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Jessie Zhao for any closing remarks.

Jessie Zhao

Thank you, everyone, again, for participating in today's conference call. Should you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to contact us. Thank you, and have an awesome day. Goodbye.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.