การประชุมแถลงผลประกอบการไตรมาส 3 ปี 2026 ของ ONE Gas (OGS): ปรับเพิ่มคาดการณ์กำไรต่อหุ้น (EPS)

ประเด็นสำคัญ

• ONE Gas รายงานกำไรต่อหุ้น (EPS) ปรับปรุงแล้วในไตรมาส 3/2026 ที่ $0.53 เพิ่มขึ้น 13% จาก $0.47 ในช่วงเดียวกันของปีก่อน โดยได้รับแรงหนุนจากอัตราค่าบริการใหม่ การเติบโตของจำนวนลูกค้า กฎหมาย Texas House Bill 4384 และผลการดำเนินงานด้านค่าใช้จ่ายในการดำเนินงานที่ปรับตัวดีขึ้น
• บริษัทได้ปรับเพิ่มคาดการณ์กำไรต่อหุ้น (EPS) ปรับปรุงแล้วสำหรับปี 2026 เป็น $4.95-$5.01 และปรับเพิ่มคาดการณ์กำไรสุทธิปรับปรุงแล้วเป็น 313 ล้านดอลลาร์-317 ล้านดอลลาร์
• ค่าใช้จ่ายในการดำเนินงานและการบำรุงรักษาในไตรมาส 3 ทรงตัวเมื่อเทียบกับช่วงเดียวกันของปีก่อน แม้ว่าจะมี คำขอระบุตำแหน่งแนวท่อส่งก๊าซเพิ่มขึ้น 7% ค่าใช้จ่ายเชื้อเพลิงยานพาหนะเพิ่มขึ้นประมาณ 1.5 ล้านดอลลาร์ และค่าใช้จ่ายเกี่ยวกับพนักงานที่สูงขึ้นก็ตาม
• ONE Gas ดำเนินโครงการลงทุนในสินทรัพย์ถาวรแล้วเสร็จประมาณ 229 ล้านดอลลาร์ ในระหว่างไตรมาส และรวมเป็น 587 ล้านดอลลาร์ จนถึงเดือนกันยายน ทั้งนี้ ผู้บริหารยังคงคาดการณ์เงินลงทุนสำหรับทั้งปีไว้ที่ประมาณ 800 ล้านดอลลาร์
• โครงการรองรับความต้องการใช้ก๊าซขนาดใหญ่จำนวน 4 โครงการที่ระบุได้ คิดเป็น รายได้เพิ่มเติมต่อปีประมาณ 22 ล้านดอลลาร์ และ เงินลงทุนที่เกี่ยวข้อง 200 ล้านดอลลาร์ ขณะที่โครงการในระยะท้ายขยายตัวเป็น 8 โครงการ ซึ่งคิดเป็นกำลังการผลิตไฟฟ้าประมาณ 3 กิกะวัตต์ และความต้องการใช้ก๊าซที่อาจสูงถึง 1 พันล้านลูกบาศก์ฟุตต่อวัน
• แผนการจัดหาเงินทุนสำหรับปี 2026 เสร็จสมบูรณ์แล้ว โดยคาดว่าจะไม่มีความจำเป็นต้องจัดหาเงินทุนเพิ่มเติมผ่านการออกหุ้นทุนหรือหนี้ระยะยาวตลอดช่วงที่เหลือของปี

ข้อมูลทางการเงินที่สำคัญ

ผลการดำเนินงานทางธุรกิจและการปฏิบัติการ

อัตราค่าบริการใหม่และการเติบโตของจำนวนลูกค้าช่วยหนุนกำไรขั้นต้นสุทธิในไตรมาส 3 ขณะที่กฎหมาย Texas House Bill 4384 ช่วยลดความล่าช้าด้านการกำกับดูแล (regulatory lag) สำหรับเงินลงทุนที่มีสิทธิ์ซึ่งเปิดใช้งานระหว่างการพิจารณาอัตราค่าบริการ โดยผู้บริหารระบุว่ากฎหมายดังกล่าวมีส่วนช่วยในไตรมาส 3 น้อยกว่าไตรมาสก่อนๆ เนื่องจากผลประโยชน์จะผันแปรตามการใช้จ่ายเงินลงทุนและรอบปีของ GRIP

การบริหารจัดการต้นทุนปรับตัวดีขึ้นอย่างมีนัยสำคัญเมื่อเทียบกับครึ่งปีแรก ซึ่งเป็นช่วงที่ค่าใช้จ่าย O&M เพิ่มขึ้น 7.5% เมื่อเทียบกับช่วงเดียวกันของปีก่อน ONE Gas ระบุว่าผลลัพธ์ในไตรมาส 3 เป็นผลมาจากปรับเปลี่ยนมาดำเนินการเองภายในองค์กร (in-sourcing) การวางแผนงานที่รัดกุมยิ่งขึ้น และการบริหารจัดการต้นทุนประจำวันอย่างมีวินัย โดยคำขอระบุตำแหน่งแนวท่อส่งก๊าซเพิ่มขึ้นมากกว่า 7% ขณะที่ความเสียหายต่อ 1,000 คำขอลดลง 5%

การยื่นเรื่องต่อหน่วยงานกำกับดูแลชั่วคราวเสร็จสมบูรณ์แล้วในทั้งสามรัฐที่บริษัทดำเนินงาน โดยค่าธรรมเนียมพิเศษเพื่อความน่าเชื่อถือของระบบก๊าซในรัฐแคนซัสมีผลบังคับใช้ในเดือนตุลาคม และช่วยเพิ่มรายได้ต่อปี 14.3 ล้านดอลลาร์ การยื่นเรื่อง GRIP ในรัฐเทกซัสมีผลบังคับใช้ในเดือนกรกฎาคม โดยส่งผลให้เพิ่มรายได้ต่อปี 36.9 ล้านดอลลาร์ ขณะที่อัตราค่าบริการชั่วคราวในรัฐโอคลาโฮมามีผลบังคับใช้ในเดือนมิถุนายน โดยส่งผลให้เพิ่มรายได้ต่อปี 28.7 ล้านดอลลาร์

การพัฒนาโครงการรองรับความต้องการใช้ก๊าซขนาดใหญ่ยังคงเป็นเป้าหมายหลักในการเติบโต โดยการเชื่อมต่อศูนย์ข้อมูลในโอคลาโฮมาซิตี้เสร็จสมบูรณ์แล้ว และคาดว่าจะเริ่มให้บริการในเดือนพฤศจิกายน นอกจากนี้ โครงการการผลิตขั้นสูงในเอลพาโซก็เสร็จสมบูรณ์แล้วเช่นกัน และจะรองรับการผลิตไฟฟ้าในพื้นที่ขนาด 100 เมกะวัตต์

โครงการที่เกี่ยวข้องกับ LNG ในรัฐเทกซัสคาดว่าจะเริ่มก่อสร้างในไตรมาส 4/2026 และเปิดให้บริการในไตรมาส 1/2027 ส่วนโครงการ Western Farmers ซึ่งเป็นโครงการที่ใหญ่ที่สุดที่อยู่ระหว่างการพัฒนา ยังคงมีกำหนดการเสร็จสิ้นในไตรมาส 3/2028 โดยครอบคลุมการก่อสร้างท่อส่งก๊าซขนาดเส้นผ่านศูนย์กลาง 24 นิ้ว ยาว 43 ไมล์ เพื่อป้อนก๊าซให้กับโรงไฟฟ้าพลังงานก๊าซธรรมชาติทางตอนใต้ของรัฐโอคลาโฮมา

ผู้บริหารกล่าวว่าสองในสี่โครงการรองรับความต้องการใช้ก๊าซขนาดใหญ่ที่ระบุไว้ควรจะเปิดให้บริการได้ในระหว่างไตรมาส 4/2026 และสร้างรายได้เต็มปีในปี 2027 นอกจากโอกาสในระยะท้ายทั้ง 8 โครงการแล้ว ONE Gas กำลังประเมินโครงการในระยะเริ่มต้นอีก 20 โครงการ ซึ่งครอบคลุมศูนย์ข้อมูล การผลิตขั้นสูงและการผลิตแบบดั้งเดิม ก๊าซธรรมชาติอัด (CNG) ก๊าซธรรมชาติเหลว (LNG) และการผลิตไฟฟ้า

แนวทางและคำแนะนำจากผู้บริหาร

ขณะนี้ ONE Gas คาดการณ์กำไรสุทธิปรับปรุงแล้วสำหรับปี 2026 ไว้ที่ 313 ล้านดอลลาร์-317 ล้านดอลลาร์ และกำไรต่อหุ้นปรับปรุงแล้วที่ $4.95-$5.01 โดยผู้บริหารวางแผนที่จะให้แนวทางสำหรับปี 2027 และแนวโน้มระยะยาวฉบับปรับปรุงใหม่ในช่วงต้นเดือนธันวาคม

บริษัทคาดว่าค่าใช้จ่าย O&M จะเติบโตอย่างปานกลางในไตรมาส 4 และยืนยันความคาดหวังระยะยาวสำหรับการเติบโตของค่าใช้จ่าย O&M รายปีที่ 3%-4%

ผู้บริหารกล่าวว่าไม่จำเป็นต้องจัดหาเงินทุนเพิ่มเติมตลอดช่วงที่เหลือของปี 2026 ความต้องการเงินทุนส่วนของหุ้นครอบคลุมด้วยสัญญาขายล่วงหน้าที่มีอยู่แล้วที่ราคาประมาณ $82 ต่อหุ้น และการครบกำหนดชำระหนี้ครั้งต่อไปจะมีขึ้นในไตรมาส 2/2029

สำหรับแนวโน้มระยะยาวที่จะเสนอในเร็วๆ นี้ ONE Gas ตั้งใจที่จะใช้ ค่ากลางที่ $4.98 ของคาดการณ์กำไรต่อหุ้นปรับปรุงแล้วปี 2026 ปัจจุบันเป็นฐาน แทนที่จะเป็นค่ากลางของคาดการณ์เดิมที่ $4.89

ความเสี่ยงและประเด็นที่ต้องจับตา

ความเสี่ยงด้านอัตราดอกเบี้ยยังคงกระจุกตัวอยู่ในตราสารหนี้ระยะสั้น (commercial paper) จากยอดคงค้างเฉลี่ยของตราสารหนี้ระยะสั้นตามแผน ผู้บริหารประมาณการว่าหากสมมติให้เกิด การเปลี่ยนแปลงของอัตราดอกเบี้ยนโยบายสหรัฐฯ 100 basis points ตลอดทั้งปี จะส่งผลกระทบต่อกำไรต่อหุ้นปรับปรุงแล้วต่อปีประมาณ $0.09

ค่าใช้จ่ายเชื้อเพลิงยานพาหนะเพิ่มขึ้นเกือบ 1.5 ล้านดอลลาร์ ในไตรมาส 3 ขณะที่ค่าใช้จ่ายเกี่ยวกับพนักงานก็เพิ่มขึ้นเช่นกัน ผู้บริหารระบุว่าอัตราดอกเบี้ยและราคาเชื้อเพลิงเป็นปัจจัยกดดันตามวัฏจักร

สภาพอากาศยังคงเป็นปัจจัยกดดันผลการดำเนินงานปี 2026 แม้จะมีผลประโยชน์จากการปลดปล่อยความจุท่อส่งก๊าซก็ตาม บริษัทกล่าวว่ากลไกการปรับตามสภาพอากาศ (weather-normalization) ทำงานตามที่ออกแบบไว้ แต่องค์ประกอบของฤดูหนาวที่อบอุ่นสลับกับการพุ่งขึ้นอย่างมากของพายุฤดูหนาวทำให้ปีนี้มีความไม่ปกติ

ผู้บริหารยังตั้งข้อสังเกตอีกว่า การเติบโตของกำไรในปี 2027 เดิมทีคาดว่าจะต่ำกว่าแนวโน้มระยะยาวอยู่แล้ว เนื่องจากรัฐโอคลาโฮมาจะเปลี่ยนจากกระบวนการกำหนดอัตราตามผลงานไปสู่การพิจารณาอัตราค่าบริการทั่วไป (general rate case) ซึ่งใช้เวลานานกว่า

ความต้องการเงินทุนสำหรับโครงการรองรับความต้องการใช้ก๊าซขนาดใหญ่ยังมีความไม่แน่นอน โครงสร้างการจัดหาเงินทุนแตกต่างกันไปตามโครงการและอาจมีตั้งแต่ข้อตกลงที่ลูกค้าเป็นผู้สนับสนุนเงินทุนไปจนถึงบริษัทเป็นผู้สนับสนุนเงินทุนทั้งหมด ONE Gas กล่าวว่าจะให้รายละเอียดด้านรายได้และเงินลงทุนเมื่อการเจรจาเชิงพาณิชย์มีความคืบหน้า และจะรวมโครงการที่คาดว่าจะเกิดขึ้นไว้ในแผน 5 ปีฉบับปรับปรุง

ประเด็นสำคัญจากการถาม-ตอบกับนักวิเคราะห์

• ปัจจัยขับเคลื่อนกำไรปี 2027: ผู้บริหารระบุว่าการเปลี่ยนแปลงทางกฎหมายในรัฐเทกซัสและแคนซัส ความล่าช้าด้านการกำกับดูแลที่ลดลง ผลประโยชน์จากการดำเนินการเองภายใน และโอกาสจากโครงการรองรับความต้องการใช้ก๊าซขนาดใหญ่เป็นปัจจัยบวกเชิงโครงสร้าง โดยคาดว่าจะส่งผลดีมากกว่าแรงกดดันตามวัฏจักรจากอัตราดอกเบี้ยและต้นทุนเชื้อเพลิง แม้ว่าจะมีการเลื่อนการให้แนวทางอย่างละเอียดสำหรับปี 2027 ไปเป็นเดือนธันวาคมก็ตาม
• กำหนดเวลาของโครงการรองรับความต้องการใช้ก๊าซขนาดใหญ่: โครงการที่ประกาศแล้ว 2 โครงการคาดว่าจะเปิดให้บริการในไตรมาส 4/2026 ขณะที่โอกาสเกี่ยวกับ LNG ในเทกซัสตั้งเป้าไว้ในไตรมาส 1/2027 ส่วนโครงการขนาดใหญ่ระดับสาธารณูปโภค คาดว่าจะสร้างรายได้ในช่วงระยะเวลาที่ยาวนานขึ้นขยายไปจนถึงปี 2028-2030
• ความคุ้มค่าทางเศรษฐกิจของโครงการ: ONE Gas ให้ความสำคัญกับโครงการที่สามารถใช้โครงสร้างพื้นฐานที่มีอยู่เดิม เข้าข่ายได้รับอัตราค่าบริการสูงสุด และกระจายต้นทุนคงที่ของระบบไปยังการใช้งานที่มากขึ้น ทั้งนี้ แต่ละโครงการยังคงต้องได้รับการทบทวนความเหมาะสมในรัฐที่เกี่ยวข้อง
• การพิจารณาอัตราค่าบริการในรัฐโอคลาโฮมา: ผู้บริหารคาดว่าการยื่นเรื่องในปี 2027 จะจัดการกับต้นทุนหนี้และส่วนของหุ้นที่สูงขึ้น รวมถึงข้อกำหนดที่ส่งผลกระทบต่อความน่าสนใจของการจัดสรรเงินลงทุนตามดุลยพินิจ โดยบริษัทระบุว่ายังคงผ่อนคลายกับสภาพแวดล้อมด้านการกำกับดูแล แม้ว่าจะมีการเปลี่ยนแปลงวาระของคณะกรรมการที่กำลังจะเกิดขึ้นก็ตาม
• การป้องกันความเสี่ยงอัตราดอกเบี้ย: ONE Gas ได้ประเมินการทำสัญญาแลกเปลี่ยนอัตราดอกเบี้ย (interest-rate swaps) สำหรับความเสี่ยงหนี้ระยะสั้น แต่พบว่าไม่มีความน่าสนใจภายใต้กรอบปัจจุบัน จึงไม่ได้ดำเนินการป้องกันความเสี่ยง
• ความต้องการเงินทุนส่วนของหุ้นในอนาคต: ผู้บริหารไม่ได้เปลี่ยนแปลงกรอบความต้องการเงินทุนส่วนของหุ้นเดิมสำหรับระยะเวลาการวางแผนปี 2027-2030 โดยระบุว่าผลการดำเนินงานทางธุรกิจที่ดีเกินคาดและความต้องการเงินสดสำหรับโครงการเติบโตใหม่จะช่วยชดเชยซึ่งกันและกันได้ในบางส่วน

ถอดความการแถลงผลประกอบการฉบับเต็ม

บทถอดเสียงฉบับเต็มของการประชุมทางโทรศัพท์ผลประกอบการ

คำชี้แจงจากฝ่ายบริหาร

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the ONE Gas Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Eric Biggers. Please go ahead, Mr. Bickers.

Unknown Executive

Thank you, Regina. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on our Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference call. This call is being webcast live, and a replay will be available later today. After our prepared remarks, we are happy to take your questions. A reminder that statements made during this call that might include ONE Gas expectations or predictions should be considered forward-looking statements and are covered by the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, each as amended.

Actual results could differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statement. For a discussion of factors that could cause actual results to differ, please refer to our SEC filings. This call will include financial results and guidance with respect to adjusted net income and adjusted net income per share, which are non-GAAP financial measures as defined by the SEC. A reconciliation of the company's GAAP net income and GAAP earnings per share to adjusted net income and adjusted net income per share, along with additional disclosures required by Regulation G are available in the earnings release we issued yesterday.

Joining us this morning are Sid McAnnally, Chief Executive Officer; Chris Sighinolfi, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Curtis Dinan, President and Chief Operating Officer. And now I'll turn the call over to Sid.

Robert McAnnally

Thanks, Erik. And good morning, everyone. We delivered another strong quarter, and the message today is simple. Our strategy is working. Third quarter adjusted earnings per share increased 13% year-over-year to $0.53, driven by execution across the business. Equally important, we saw the operating leverage we expected with O&M essentially flat year-over-year despite higher activity levels and external pressures, which did not exist in the year ago period. This performance gives us confidence to again raise our 2026 guidance.

We now expect adjusted earnings per share of $4.95 to $5.01, above our previously raised range. Our 2026 financing plan is complete with no additional equity needs for the year. This financial output is the clearest evidence of the strength and resilience of our durable growth model. We are benefiting from constructive regulatory frameworks, disciplined cost management and continued customer growth. At the same time, our opportunity set is expanding. We continue to see large load demand developing across our service territories, including new CNG and LNG-related opportunities, further demonstrating the versatility and importance of natural gas to our region's growth, and we are pursuing that growth with discipline.

We are focused on opportunities that fit our regulated business model strengthen our system and create long-term value. The addition of large load volumes allows us to spread system costs across a broader base, supporting affordability and keeping our 2026 customer bills flat to last year. As we enter the final quarter of the year, we do so from a position of strength, executing well today, raising our financial outlook and building an increasingly compelling set of opportunities for tomorrow. Chris will walk through the quarter and our updated outlook in more detail. Chris?

Christopher Sighinolfi

Thanks, Sid, and good morning, everyone. As Sid noted, our third quarter performance was broad-based. Adjusted earnings per share increased to $0.53 from $0.47 in the year-ago period. No single line item drove the improved performance this quarter. New rates and customer growth supported net margin, Texas House Bill 4384 provided incremental benefits. And as expected, O&M performance improved meaningfully from the first half of the year. Together, these factors elevated operating income and support the guidance raise we announced in yesterday's release.

Texas House Bill 4384 remains an important part of our story as it reduces regulatory lag on eligible capital placed into service between rate filings. The benefit varies by quarter based on the timing of capital expenditures and the annual gas reliability infrastructure program cycle. As expected, the third quarter represented a smaller contribution than the quarters before it. The eligible capital balance will build again as we place additional investments in service. The legislation is working as the state intended, but it is just 1 of several drivers supporting this year's earnings growth.

Our O&M performance deserves additional context. Expense was flat year-over-year in the third quarter, markedly lower than the 7.5% year-over-year increase we experienced during the first half of this year. This step down is consistent with the cadence we described on our second quarter call. This O&M result was achieved in a demanding operating environment. LINE Locate ticket volumes were up more than 7%, auto fuel prices added nearly $1.5 million of additional expense and employee-related expenses were higher.

We absorbed these pressures and held O&M in line with 2025, reflecting the benefits of our in-sourcing efforts, tighter work planning and disciplined day-to-day cost management. We expect moderate O&M growth in the fourth quarter and affirm our long-term expectation for annual O&M growth of 3% to 4%. As I've noted on prior calls, capacity release has provided another offset this year. We entered the refill season with more gas in storage than we had planned. Our gas supply team used this available transportation capacity to create value rather than allow it to sit idle. These actions helped offset the financial effect of lower first quarter usage associated with the warm weather and benefited customers under applicable sharing mechanisms.

Through the first 9 months of the year, we recorded $3.7 million in capacity release benefits, with an equal amount captured by our customers.

Turning to financing. We have no additional financing needs for the remainder of 2026. Given financial outperformance, our equity needs for the year are covered by existing forward sale agreements at approximately $82 per share. In August, we placed a 10-year senior note at a coupon of 5.45%, addressing this year's long-term credit financing needs at an attractive rate. Our next debt maturity is not until the second quarter of 2029.

Our near-term exposure to interest rates remains primarily through our use of commercial paper. For example, at average planned levels of commercial paper, a hypothetical 100 basis point full year movement in the Fed funds rate would impact full year adjusted EPS and by approximately $0.09. Long-term debt costs are recoverable in customer rates. We have been conservative in our planning for such issuances, so the recent movement in long end yields does not materially alter our outlook.

As we have noted, based on our year-to-date performance, we now expect adjusted net income to range between $313 million and $317 million, with adjusted EPS guidance of $4.95 to $5.01. Our new adjusted EPS range is entirely above our original 2026 guidance. We look to share more about our 2027 and long-term guidance plan in early December.

Yesterday, the ONE Gas Board of Directors declared a dividend of $0.68 per share, unchanged from the previous quarter.

Now I'll turn to regulatory activities. Our 2026 interim filings are complete and current rates in all 3 states reflect the full requested amounts contained in this year's respective filings. We believe our interim mechanisms help support timely recovery of capital investments and having them concluded provides additional visibility as we close out the year.

In Kansas, the gas system reliability surcharge became effective in October and provides a $14.3 million annual revenue increase. This compares with $7.2 million requested and approved in 2025 and reflects the broader recovery provisions enacted under House Build 2435.

In Texas, our GRIP filing became effective in July and provides a $36.9 million annual revenue increase. Following consolidation, this marked our first statewide GRIP filing and reflects investments across the Texas system. In

Oklahoma, interim rates associated with our performance-based rate change application became effective in June and provide a $28.7 million annual revenue increase. In mid-October, the Oklahoma Corporation Commission approved the ALJ's recommendation as filed. We expect to file our next Oklahoma general rate case in 2027 as required by tariff.

And now, Curtis, I will turn things to you.

Curtis Dinan

Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with operations. As Chris noted, our coworkers managed a higher level of activity and still delivered better outcomes. Locate tickets increased 7% year-over-year, and most importantly, our damages per 1,000 locate tickets, a common industry metric decreased 5% during the period. This is the type of improvement we expected from bringing more work in-house. .

In-sourcing gives us greater control over training, scheduling and work quality. We continue to advance line locating and Watch and Protect initiatives and both the operating and financial benefits are becoming clearer as these programs mature.

Capital execution remains on track. We completed approximately $229 million of projects during the quarter and $587 million through September. We continue to expect approximately $800 million of capital investment for the year. While the majority of this investment support system integrity, safety and reliability, an increasing percentage supports growth projects, allowing us to respond to increasing customer demands. We view customer growth as 1 connected opportunity set.

Residential growth remains consistent with recent years, while commercial, industrial and large load activity is adding another layer of opportunity. These projects allow us to increase revenue while improving utilization of existing assets and supporting affordability for all customers. Our data center project in Oklahoma City is an example of this. We were able to use our existing system and make targeted additions to meet the customers' needs. The project adds meaningful volume in 1 of our strongest growth markets and demonstrates how natural gas infrastructure can support the power requirements of new large load developments.

Our line is complete, and we anticipate the customer initiating service this month. Our project to serve an advanced manufacturing facility in El Paso is complete and will support 100 megawatts of on-site generation. This represents another type of our evolving customer profile. It also demonstrates the breadth of the opportunity across our footprint. A third project demonstrates our agility and the diversity of opportunities. A recent LNG-related opportunity in Texas was not part of our discussion on the second quarter call, but it entered our project funnel soon afterwards.

We have completed our commercial and technical reviews and are finalizing the project. We expect the project to begin construction this quarter and enter service in the first quarter of 2027. Projects like these are well suited to our system as they primarily leverage existing infrastructure. This reduces execution time and incremental capital while supporting an attractive customer outcome. They also demonstrate the value of the screening process we've built, allowing us to quickly identify opportunities that fit our regulated model and efficiently advance qualified projects towards service.

Western Farmers is still our largest project under development. The project remains on schedule, and we continue to expect an in-service date in the third quarter of 2028. As a reminder, that project is the construction of a 43-mile 24-inch pipeline that will support a gas-fired generation facility in Southern Oklahoma. Taken together, these 4 large load projects represent approximately $22 million of additional annual revenue and $200 million of associated capital. And the opportunity set continues to build. I've mentioned 6 late-stage opportunities on prior calls and new opportunities have been added to the list. Today, we have 8 projects in late-stage development representing approximately 3 gigawatts of generation and up to 1 Bcf per day of potential demand.

We also have 20 additional opportunities in the early stages of evaluation and will provide updates as they advance. As we pursue these opportunities, customer affordability remains at the center of our strategy, new large load opportunities spread fixed system costs across more usage. The result is a balanced growth strategy that supports residential development, major economic expansion projects and customer affordability all at the same time. We are also investing in safety and reliability while adding new revenue, and we can do it while continuing to provide affordable natural gas service to 2.3 million customers.

Sid, I'll turn it back to you.

Robert McAnnally

Thanks, Curtis. We have a strong core business, supported by constructive regulatory frameworks and access to abundant natural gas supply. Our infrastructure is positioned near growing communities and emerging demand. Our teams continue to turn these advantages into growth and create value for customers and shareholders. .

I want to thank our coworkers for their focus and execution. I'm proud to work alongside them. We look forward to providing our annual guidance and long-term outlook in early December. Operator, we are now ready for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from the line of Constantine Lenet with Wells Fargo.

ช่วงถาม-ตอบ

Constantine Lednev

Congrats on a great quarter. Maybe just starting off on the upcoming Oklahoma rate case. Do you anticipate any unusual requests kind of beyond reconciling invested capital, things like O&M cost inflation or any opportunities to reconcile cost of capital with what we're seeing with interest rates and tightness there?

Christopher Sighinolfi

Constantine, it's Chris. Our PBR mechanism, unlike the capital recovery mechanisms in the other states, does keep us fairly current with operating cost expenses. We get a cost of service true-up in that filing. So I think the things you focused on are the things we've been focused on. Cost of capital, obviously, has moved up pretty significantly on the credit side and on the equity side. And then there are some provisions that have been introduced in some of other states that make discretionary capital allocations to those states more attractive. And I think we'd seek to rectify that or balance that in Oklahoma.

Constantine Lednev

Great. And maybe as a follow-up, any thoughts around risks or opportunities with kind of the OCC turnover pending the election outcome?

Christopher Sighinolfi

Not from our vantage point. We have 2 commissioners that will remain on the commission. Obviously, today, we'll settle through their third counterpart is -- but those are all folks known to us. I think they have a shared mindset and a track record that can be examined. That's where we get to the view. So I think we feel comfortable going into that case.

Constantine Lednev

And just 1 quick follow-up, I guess, for Curtis or maybe Sid, just in terms of the upside that you're seeing from these large load opportunities and the positioning there, is there any way to frame CapEx sensitivity, timing and kind of reconciling with the longer-term 5% to 7% EPS growth.

Curtis Dinan

This is Curtis, Constantine. Good to talk to you this morning. I think the way -- it's really hard to put it into a square box, so to speak, because each of these deals is a little bit different in terms of capital contributions, proximity to our system, which impacts the timing of how quickly they can come along. So if you think about the 4 projects I mentioned 2 of those Western Farmers, much longer lead time. It's a much larger project more capital intensive versus the project that 3 months ago on this call wasn't even on our radar at that point.

So that 1 came in and we're going through the analysis, and we expect to start construction this quarter and go into service next quarter. So they vary all over the board, and that's why I was trying to emphasize the need. Number one, for our teams to stay agile in responding to the opportunities that are there. They do that by being in the market, working with the commerce department with different economic development arm. So they have a good sense of what's happening in our 3 service territories.

And then putting those through our funnel, we can quickly analyze and respond to which of those we should be involved with and which of those really should go to someone else to work on. So what we'll do for you is as those become in greater light and better sensitivity around it, we'll share that with you just as we've done on the past couple of calls that will help you update your model through that period.

Robert McAnnally

And Constantine, I'll take the second half of that question. To Curtis' point, we're seeing a good bit of diversity. And the real advantage for us is where our system is relative to growth in our service territory. We're just very fortunate to have a very dynamic service territory right now and opportunities that are across the spectrum. And we like that diversity. We think it derisks the growth profile that we see.

In terms of how CapEx impacts our growth CAGR, we really look forward to having the chance to visit with you about that in early December when we provide our forward guidance.

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Jefferies.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Thank you very much for the opportunity here. I appreciate it. You guys hear me okay?

Robert McAnnally

We can.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Excellent. So look, without getting ahead of the forthcoming guidance here, how should we think about the key puts and takes for '27, right? I mean just as you think about the baseline here, can you talk to the weather advantages that you have in '26 and just the year-over-year comps in terms of being -- or executing within your CAGR targets from a '26 to '27 perspective. You've got so much of a tailwind in '26 already. Just wanted to make sure we are calibrating appropriately, maybe is the term of art.

Christopher Sighinolfi

Julien, this is Chris. It's a great question. I would characterize it this way, that there are -- they have emerged over the course of the past year, a number of structural benefits. We've talked about the legislative yield of what the state passed in Texas last year. We had originally expected about a $0.35 adjusted EPS impact from that. Today, I'd see it more along the lines of $0.45 in this year's number.

And that really has to do with processes that we've improved upon internally, whether that be field process or a back-office process that can get things closed and into service more rapidly. I think those are structural in nature, and those will carry forward. The legislative change in Kansas, which broadened the capital applicable for the GSRS mechanism. You see in my prepared remarks today, our $14-ish million GSRS outcome this year versus $7 million in the year ago period. That really just reflects the broadening of capital. That I would see as a structural benefit.

The improvements that Curtis has talked about for a number of quarters about in-sourcing and the bending of the cost curve on O&M, but at the same time yielding operational benefits that I see a structural and something that can continue. And then the emergent large load opportunities. Those continue to spool up and our processes, I think, are far more mature now in terms of how to swiftly evaluate those and commercialize those and bring those into execution.

So those are sort of all structural beneficial items that I think you should take into account as you think about the future. Then you offset that maybe with some cyclical headwinds you have written about, others have written about the fact that the Fed raised rates in September. And if you look at the [ dot plot ] has pegged another interest rate hike for the end of the year. Looks like their dot plot is stable in '27 off of the end of '26. But that would be higher than where we had assumed it to be fuel prices I have noted. Those are also, I would characterize as cyclical headwinds. So there are structural benefits.

There are cyclical headwinds. The structural benefits greatly outweigh in my mind, the cyclical headwinds, particularly when those cyclical headwinds start to alleviate. And then the final thing just because you raised it is weather. Weather was still a headwind on 2026 results despite the capacity release benefits that we were able to take into account.

And then you've seen from our IR materials for several years now, the mechanical nature of the LNG rate case timing and the fact that we were already expecting 2027 earnings growth to be below trend just given the absence of the PVR and a more lengthy process associated with prosecuting a full general rate case.

Robert McAnnally

So Julian, a couple of other ideas just pulling up another 10,000 feet or so. I think the fact that we have demonstrated a level of performance through 2026 is -- gives us a good bit of momentum as we go into '27 and we think about the forward plan. We've had the opportunity to see the yield of the in-sourcing that we've been talking about for years, as Curtis has pointed out. We have continued to make conservative assumptions and those have served us well. .

I think we're starting to see the virtue of increased internal funding. So equity overhangs are lessened. And you see us able to satisfy our equity for 2026 in a way that was very efficient.

And finally, Chris mentioned large load projects. I think the -- if you go back and look at our move into larger projects with the Austin system reinforcement project, it allowed us to build a muscle around responding to growth opportunities that was flexed with the Western Farmers project, a much larger project in terms of scale and throughput and with the commercial counterparty. And the development of that commercial flexibility has allowed us to pursue the opportunities that Curtis is talking about, whether they're very short term because they're approximate to our system, are there longer term, and we are working with folks across our region.

So one of the things that we're excited about as we look toward guidance in 2027 is a level of confidence in our ability to execute around this and the virtuous outcome that's come from the work that we've done over the past 3 years to prepare for these opportunities.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Got it. So it sounds like, look, you obviously had an incredible '26 on a variety of different factors. But it sounds like you still hope to be able to maintain the trajectory into '27, and then maybe to nitpick a little bit, how do you think about those large loads? I mean you even speak here about some of the CNG and LNG opportunities. Are those timely for '27 or how do you think about the funnel of opportunities translating into more tangible revenue uplift, if you will.

Curtis Dinan

Julien, this is Curtis. Let me just kind of walk through a couple of those buckets. One of the four, that I mentioned in my comments, 2 of those, we expect to be in service here in the fourth quarter and contribute a full year of revenues next year. One of those, the LNG opportunity that I referenced, we do expect that to come online in the first quarter of next year. .

And then of the 8 late stage, I would expect over the next 1 to 2 quarters that we'll have more to share around those, the nature of those projects and the timing of it. But as the point that Sid was making these vary across all 3 of our service territories. There's opportunities in each, and it ranges from the data centers that everybody talks about, but it's also importantly advanced manufacturing, it's traditional manufacturing, it's CNG, LNG and electric generation, utility scale generation.

So obviously, there's the Western farmers, and there's other opportunities with folks that we're talking to about possibilities down the line. Those larger projects like utility scale obviously take a bit longer, not only for perhaps the natural gas assets, but the construction that the generation takes, to get put into place. So there's a combination of some that are very near-term hits and then some that we're building for the future that will fill in buckets in the '28, '29 and '30.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Got it. And just a quick one, more thematic or to the moment. The strong El Nino has got folks across the natural gas market, very much focused on the prospects of this winter. How do you think about your planning and Latitude within your own outlook? Again, I know that this is more of MyOpIC-'26, but also '27 here. How do you think about the -- again, the latitude, whether it's cost flexibility or capacity release or otherwise to adapt to another warm winter and stay on schedule. I get that -- you have to plan against a normal weather scenario. But again, just for the purpose of what we see coming here, if you have any comments or thoughts?

Robert McAnnally

Sure, Julian. I think you can look back at the operation of our weather norms and see good performance. They functioned as they were designed to function. 2026 was an interesting year because we had, as you point out, a very mild winter, but it's easy to forget that we had a significant winter storm spike right in the middle of no winter. So to a degree, it was an anomaly when you think about the way that weather normalization works and the way that it's intended work. So we don't have concerns about the function of our weather norm. .

When you think about the challenges that systems face, I'd pull back and even go broader than your question and say, you look at what's happened since Winterstorm ore and the way that we were able to adapt our system to that storm. We had very few outages, as you know, but we also learned how to harden the system in a way that prepares us whether we have a very harsh winter or we have a very mild winter. The capacity release that Chris mentioned and you repeat I think it's just an example of the flexibility of our mechanisms and the way that our folks are able to sort of shift into whatever is required to best serve our stakeholders.

So we feel pretty good about the way that we go into '27, both from an operational perspective and a regulatory perspective.

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Dylan Libner with Mizuho.

Unknown Analyst

I just wanted to kind of touch more on this new Texas LNG project that you mentioned, kind of get like size and the scope of it. And if you're seeing any more projects that are in the 8 late stage or the 20 early-stage opportunities that you mentioned.

Curtis Dinan

Dylan, this is Curtis. And I don't have a lot of details to share because our customer hasn't announced those details. So we would wait for them to do that. But to your broader question, there are other opportunities like that in Texas that folks are pursuing and that we're in one of them, very late-stage discussions to do both CNG as well as electric generation for the grid. So I think those projects both demonstrate changing interest in where our product can be utilized and how other companies are looking to take advantage of that. .

So again, we'll continue to provide more detail as our customers do that and as those advance along in the commercialization of those projects.

Unknown Analyst

Understood. And then the capital that was going into that project a part included in the $100 million for 2026.

Curtis Dinan

That project is being funded by us, yes. .

Unknown Analyst

Congrats to quarter again.

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Paul Fremont with Ladenburg.

Paul Fremont

Congratulations on a good quarter. I guess my first question -- have you guys considered using interest rate swaps to hedge some of the exposure on your short-term debt?

Christopher Sighinolfi

Paul, this is Chris. Yes, we have. We've studied that extensively over the course of the past year. We spoke to it a little bit in response to a question on the second quarter call. We studied it and we know how the mechanism works. We know how we would implement it, but it wasn't attractive to us, and we did not take action on it. And I don't expect given the current framework that we would, but we have explored it, and we know what that looks like.

Paul Fremont

Got it. And then second question on the 8 projects that are in late stage. Can you give us any quantification of the capital spending that opportunity that goes with those 8 projects?

Curtis Dinan

Paul, this is Curtis. And at this point, where the stages that those are, we're also negotiating what that funding would look like. So in some of these cases, it will be more customer-funded or fully customer funded, and some of these will be funded entirely by the company. So it depends on the nature of the product the project that we're putting into place, what other uses for that expansion we may be able to utilize as well as what the revenue is that it's generating.

Keep in mind that we -- every project also goes through a prudency review. So we have to meet our prudency requirements in each of our 3 states, which serves to protect our existing customer base. So each 1 of those will vary a little bit. And like I did on the 4 projects we talked about, we'll continue to provide that additional guidance both in terms of revenue and capital once they get to that point.

So again, as I mentioned on a comment earlier, it's a little hard to put them in a square box to say, I'll think about it this way, if you have this volume of this number of projects because it can be the project like the LNG project I described that is very close to our system, we'll take minimal time to connect or a longer-term full or much larger development like the Western Farmers project. It takes a number of years to execute. It's across that whole spectrum that we see in that next 8 projects that I mentioned.

Robert McAnnally

And Paul, this is all done in a regulated environment. So we're also mindful of the affordability implications for all of these and really pleased that we're able to have the kind of performance that we've had in 2026 and still performed very well from an affordability perspective.

Paul Fremont

No. And I think I get it, but first of all, I think investors are mostly focused on the capital that you would be putting up in projects as opposed to the portion that potentially would be funded by the customer, is there sort of like a maybe a general type number? Are we talking $100 million plus? Or are we talking -- in other words, without giving sort of a specific project-by-project breakout, I think investors just want to know order of magnitude. Are we talking $50 million, $100 million, what general neighborhood does that opportunity represent, and that would just be for your portion of the spend, not for anything that's funded by the customer.

Curtis Dinan

Yes. Again, Paul, I appreciate the desire to have the greater breadth and depth into those numbers. But it really is, I know the total estimates of those projects, but I until commercial negotiations complete, I really can't get more specific around what those dollars may look like across those projects. But we will make when we put out our updated 5-year guidance the projects that we expect and the capital we're expecting, we'll have that included in as part of that guidance, both in terms of revenue and in terms of the capital that we project needing over the 5-year plan. .

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of David Paz with Wolfe Research.

David Paz

Thank you for the helpful color on the '27 drivers, Chris. I appreciate that. One maybe related mechanical question. Next month, are you planning to rebase the new CAGR off the original '26 guide or today's revised guide?

Christopher Sighinolfi

David, it's Chris. Yes. Thanks for the earlier appreciation of my comments. In terms of rebasing, it has always been our practice to use the current -- the midpoint of the current guidance as the anchor point. So we would not use an adjusted EPS of $4.89, we would instead use the $4.98 midpoint of what we've released today. That would be consistent with past action. That's our intention.

David Paz

Great. And I know you subsequently rebased off '25 actuals earlier this year. And I think at the time you pointed to 2030 of about $6 just given the drivers that you noted earlier today and maybe using the current interest rate curve, is there any indication that you will not keep around that $6 or even better?

Christopher Sighinolfi

We'll have a full refresh in December. I think if you go back to the conversation I was having with Julian about structural elements versus cyclical elements? There are elements that have emerged in our story that were not present a year ago that I would say is structural in nature and beneficial. It's a matter, I think, for you to determine, amongst the cyclical headwinds are they -- have they abated by that point? For example, if you were to look at what the [ FOMC ] says about itself, at least in its latest dot plot, by 2030, it is very much on a path towards neutrality, neutrality as they've identified it at 3%.

Does that hold? Or do you use that? Do you have to use some economists forecast at Wolfram. And I don't know what your process is versus another analyst, it has been our practice to use -- to be -- have a view that's informed by what those actors say about their own actions. And so that's probably as much as I'm comfortable saying today.

David Paz

Fair enough. That's why I did say the current interest rate curve, but fair enough. So maybe 1 last question. Just within the '27, '30 planning period, as you stand today, I know you're going to give us an update, but I think you said you're all done with equity for this year, but should we still assume again, just to $30 million the same amount of total equity needs that you identified earlier this year? .

Christopher Sighinolfi

Yes. We've made no change in that comment. You have 2 things sort of counteracting. One is outperformance of the business, and 2 is the opportunities Curtis is talking about that will be consumptions of cash. And so how those 2 things net each other out in the revised plan you will see in a matter of a couple of weeks. But at this point, I think it's safe to assume the same range we had provided to you before.

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of David Rold with Bank of America.

Unknown Analyst

Within large load, the CNG and the LNG opportunities. Just wondering if you could compare and contrast those versus the traditional data center, large load, that bring with it any kind of additional time line risk differences in economics, new challenges, how much existing infrastructure versus new is needed? Any color there would be helpful.

Curtis Dinan

David, this is Curtis. Let me just use a couple of the examples that I was referencing earlier. In terms of your question around the ability to respond, it really depends on where each of those customers decides to locate their facilities and what type of facilities those are. .

In the case of the LNG opportunity, that is not construction of a large facility. They bring those trains in on semi-trailers effectively and so they can go into service very quickly for us to expect to start construction this quarter and it to be in service next quarter. That tells you it's pretty proximate to our location where we already have assets and our ability to respond pretty quickly and the customer's ability to be on-site and up and running very quickly.

In the case of data centers, as you know, those take quite a while to construct physically, the buildings themselves as well as all the internal components and everything. So those take a little bit longer to develop and for us to begin service to those. Most of the projects that we're talking about and those that we focus on are those where we're going to be really the opportunity for that customer to get gas service.

And so we're able to collect our tariff to do that. And if we're going to use up capacity of our system in this environment, we're going to be looking to do that where we get our MAX tariff rates to be able to do it so that it protects the economics of the project and equally important, it protects affordability for all of our customers because it pays its share, it absorbs part of those fixed costs.

And so that's 1 of the ways we look to high-grade these projects. We're not chasing every opportunity that comes along, and we're not going to chase projects down to a lower and lower economic point. We're going to stay focused on how do we best utilize our system to serve that customer as well as protect our existing customers. So I recognize that the boundaries of that answer were pretty wide, but that's the reality of the environment that we're operating in.

Operator

That concludes the question-and-answer session. I'd now like to hand it back to the ONE Gas team for closing remarks.

Robert McAnnally

Thank you again to everyone for your interest in ONE Gas. We look forward to seeing many of you at conferences in New York, the second week of December. Our quiet period for the fourth quarter starts when we close our books in early January and extends until we release earnings in mid- to late February. We'll provide details about the conference call at a later date. Have a great day.

Operator

This concludes the One Gas Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. You may now disconnect.