การแถลงผลประกอบการไตรมาส 3 ปี 2026 ของ Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP): ปรับเพิ่มประมาณการ EBITDA

ประเด็นสำคัญ

• ยอดจัดส่งกระป๋องเครื่องดื่มทั่วโลกเพิ่มขึ้น 2% เมื่อเทียบเป็นรายปี โดยการเติบโต 6% ในยุโรปถูกชดเชยบางส่วนจากการลดลง 1% ในภูมิภาคอเมริกา
• EBITDA ที่ปรับปรุงแล้วในไตรมาส 3/2026 อยู่ที่ 213 ล้านดอลลาร์ ซึ่งสูงกว่ากรอบประมาณการของผู้บริหาร เนื่องจากได้รับการสนับสนุนจากการเติบโตของปริมาณการจัดส่งในยุโรปและส่วนผสมผลิตภัณฑ์ที่เอื้ออำนวยในอเมริกาเหนือ
• ผู้บริหารปรับเพิ่มกรอบประมาณการ EBITDA ที่ปรับปรุงแล้วสำหรับปี 2026 เต็มปีขึ้นเป็น 785 ล้านดอลลาร์–795 ล้านดอลลาร์
• รายได้ในยุโรปเพิ่มขึ้น 11% สู่ระดับ 693 ล้านดอลลาร์ ขณะที่ EBITDA ที่ปรับปรุงแล้วเพิ่มขึ้น 11% สู่ระดับ 91 ล้านดอลลาร์ ผู้บริหารคาดว่าปริมาณการจัดส่งในยุโรปจะเติบโตอย่างน้อยประมาณ 3% สำหรับปี 2026 เต็มปี
• AMP จะเร่งและขยายการลงทุนในสายการผลิตกระป๋องใหม่ที่โรงงานเดิมในสหราชอาณาจักรและสเปน โดยคาดว่ารายจ่ายลงทุนเพื่อการเติบโต (Growth CapEx) จะเพิ่มขึ้นจาก 90 ล้านดอลลาร์ในปี 2026 เป็นประมาณ 250 ล้านดอลลาร์ในปี 2027
• สภาพคล่อง ณ สิ้นไตรมาสรวมอยู่ที่ 736 ล้านดอลลาร์ ขณะที่อัตราส่วนหนี้สินสุทธิต่อ EBITDA ที่ปรับปรุงแล้วย้อนหลัง 12 เดือน (Net Leverage) อยู่ที่ 5.1 เท่า เทียบกับ 5.2 เท่า ณ ช่วงเดียวกันของปีก่อน

ข้อมูลทางการเงินที่สำคัญ

ผลการดำเนินงานทางธุรกิจและฝ่ายปฏิบัติการ

ยุโรปเป็นปัจจัยหลักในการขับเคลื่อนการเติบโตของปริมาณการจัดส่ง โดยยอดจัดส่งเพิ่มขึ้น 6% ซึ่งได้รับการสนับสนุนจากเครื่องดื่มอัดลม เครื่องดื่มชูกำลัง และกลุ่มสินค้าเติบโตที่มีขนาดเล็กกว่า ขณะที่ปริมาณเบียร์ลดลงเล็กน้อยเนื่องจากการปรับสัญญาใหม่ที่ดำเนินการในช่วงต้นปี

EBITDA ที่ปรับปรุงแล้วในยุโรปได้รับประโยชน์จากการเติบโตของปริมาณการจัดส่งและการชดเชยต้นทุนวัตถุดิบที่สูงขึ้น ผลบวกเหล่านี้ถูกชดเชยบางส่วนจากผลกระทบของสินทรัพย์ที่เกิดจากสัญญาตามมาตรฐาน IFRS 15 รวมถึงต้นทุนการดำเนินงานและค่าใช้จ่ายในการบริหารที่สูงขึ้นเล็กน้อย

กำลังการผลิตในยุโรปยังคงตึงตัว AMP วางแผนที่จะสร้างสายการผลิตกระป๋องสองสายที่โรงงานเดิมในสหราชอาณาจักรและสเปน โดยมีข้อตกลงล่วงหน้าจากลูกค้าสนับสนุน ทั้งนี้ ผู้บริหารคาดว่าโครงการเหล่านี้จะสร้างการเติบโตอย่างมีนัยสำคัญต่อ EBITDA ที่ปรับปรุงแล้วในยุโรปตั้งแต่ปี 2028 เป็นต้นไป

ในอเมริกาเหนือ ยอดจัดส่งลดลงน้อยกว่า 1% ซึ่งปรับตัวดีขึ้นเมื่อเทียบกับครึ่งปีแรก แรงกดดันจากการปรับสัญญาใหม่ถูกชดเชยเป็นส่วนใหญ่โดยพอร์ตลูกค้าของ AMP และส่วนผสมกระป๋องชนิดพิเศษที่เอื้ออำนวย ผู้บริหารเน้นย้ำถึงความแข็งแกร่งอย่างต่อเนื่องในกลุ่มเครื่องดื่มชูกำลัง เครื่องดื่มอัดลม และกลุ่มเครื่องดื่มเพื่อสุขภาพใหม่ ๆ ในขณะที่ AMP มีสัดส่วนรายได้จากกลุ่มเบียร์ที่ชะลอตัวในระดับเลขหลักเดียวช่วงต่ำเท่านั้น

ยอดจัดส่งในบราซิลลดลง 5% เนื่องจากการเปลี่ยนส่วนผสมของกลุ่มลูกค้าและการปรับสัญญาใหม่ ผู้บริหารคาดว่าจะมีการเติบโตของยอดจัดส่งในระดับปานกลางในไตรมาส 4 เนื่องจากตลาดเข้าสู่ช่วงฤดูร้อนที่มีความต้องการสูง บริษัทคงมองว่าการเปลี่ยนจากขวดแก้วชนิดคืนขวดไปเป็นบรรจุภัณฑ์แบบใช้ครั้งเดียว โดยเฉพาะอย่างยิ่งกระป๋อง ยังคงเป็นปัจจัยขับเคลื่อนตลาดในระยะยาว

ประมาณการจากผู้บริหาร

AMP ได้ปรับเพิ่มกรอบประมาณการ EBITDA ที่ปรับปรุงแล้วสำหรับปี 2026 เต็มปีขึ้นเป็น 785 ล้านดอลลาร์–795 ล้านดอลลาร์

สำหรับปี 2026 เต็มปี ผู้บริหารคาดว่าการเติบโตของยอดจัดส่งในยุโรปจะเป็นไปตามเป้าหมายอย่างน้อยประมาณ 3% บริษัทยังคงคาดการณ์รายจ่ายลงทุน (CapEx) รวมอยู่ที่ 240 ล้านดอลลาร์ ดอกเบี้ยจ่ายที่เป็นเงินสด 220 ล้านดอลลาร์ การชำระคืนเงินต้นสัญญาเช่าประมาณ 120 ล้านดอลลาร์ ภาษีจ่ายที่เป็นเงินสดประมาณ 30 ล้านดอลลาร์ และการไหลออกของเงินทุนหมุนเวียนในจำนวนเล็กน้อย

สำหรับปี 2027 ผู้บริหารได้ให้ความคาดหวังเชิงทิศทางในเบื้องต้น แทนที่จะเป็นประมาณการอย่างเป็นทางการ:

• การเติบโตของปริมาณการจัดส่งในยุโรปที่ 3%–4% เนื่องจาก AMP จะใช้กำลังการผลิตที่ยังเหลืออยู่
• การเติบโตของยอดจัดส่งในอเมริกาเหนืออย่างน้อยสอดคล้องกับอุตสาหกรรม โดยได้รับการสนับสนุนจากส่วนผสมพอร์ตสินค้าและการได้รับสัญญาใหม่
• การเติบโตของปริมาณการจัดส่งในระดับปานกลางในบราซิล ซึ่งสะท้อนถึงความผันผวนของตลาดและการปรับสัญญาใหม่ก่อนหน้านี้
• การเติบโตของ EBITDA ที่ปรับปรุงแล้วในระดับปานกลางเมื่อเทียบเป็นรายปีด้วยอัตราแลกเปลี่ยนคงที่ ซึ่งได้รับการสนับสนุนจากการเติบโตของปริมาณการจัดส่ง กลไกการส่งผ่านต้นทุน และการปรับปรุงประสิทธิภาพการดำเนินงาน
• รายจ่ายลงทุนเพื่อการเติบโต (Growth CapEx) อยู่ที่ประมาณ 250 ล้านดอลลาร์ ก่อนที่จะกลับสู่ระดับปกติมากขึ้นในปี 2028

AMP ระบุว่าได้ทำสัญญาป้องกันความเสี่ยงด้านความต้องการพลังงานในยุโรปไปแล้วมากกว่า 80% สำหรับปี 2027 และครอบคลุมมากกว่า 70% สำหรับปี 2028

ความเสี่ยงและปัจจัยที่ต้องติดตาม

• ต้นทุนสารเคลือบที่ผูกกับราคาน้ำมันซึ่งสูงขึ้นกำลังสร้างแรงกดดันเงินเฟ้อเพิ่มเติม โดยสารเคลือบคิดเป็นสัดส่วนเปอร์เซ็นต์เลขหลักเดียวของต้นทุนขาย แต่ผู้บริหารระบุว่าต้นทุนที่เพิ่มขึ้นเมื่อเร็ว ๆ นี้มีความสำคัญอย่างมีนัยสำคัญ
• ค่าขนส่งและต้นทุนพลังงานในยุโรปยังคงเป็นปัจจัยกดดัน แม้ว่า AMP จะมีกลไกการส่งผ่านต้นทุนตามสัญญาและการป้องกันความเสี่ยงด้านพลังงานก็ตาม
• ไตรมาส 4 เผชิญกับแรงกดดันจากอัตราแลกเปลี่ยน เงินเฟ้อ และฐานเปรียบเทียบที่สูงจากไตรมาส 4/2025 ซึ่งเป็นช่วงที่ยอดจัดส่งทั่วโลกเติบโต 4% และยอดจัดส่งในอเมริกาเหนือเพิ่มขึ้น 8%
• บราซิลยังคงมีความผันผวน และปริมาณการจัดส่งของ AMP ยังคงได้รับผลกระทบจากการปรับสัญญาใหม่ของลูกค้า
• หนี้สินของ AMP จะครบกำหนดชำระครั้งถัดไปในปี 2028 โดยผู้บริหารคาดว่าต้นทุนการรีไฟแนนซ์จะสูงขึ้นหากสภาวะตลาดปัจจุบันยังคงดำเนินต่อไป
• กระบวนการที่ Ardagh Holdings อาจเสนอขาย AMP ยังคงดำเนินอยู่ ทั้งนี้ ผู้บริหารระบุว่าการตัดสินใจเกี่ยวกับการดำเนินงานและการลงทุนในกำลังการผลิตเป็นอิสระจากกระบวนการดังกล่าว

ประเด็นสำคัญจากการตอบคำถามนักวิเคราะห์

ผู้บริหารกล่าวว่าเงินเฟ้อไม่ได้ส่งผลกระทบเชิงลบอย่างมีนัยสำคัญต่ออุปสงค์กระป๋องเครื่องดื่ม โดยชี้ว่าการบริโภคนอกร้านค้า (Off-trade consumption) สามารถทนทานต่อสภาวะเงินเฟ้อได้ และตั้งข้อสังเกตถึงการเติบโตอย่างต่อเนื่องในกลุ่มเครื่องดื่มชูกำลัง เครื่องดื่มอัดลม และกลุ่มเครื่องดื่มประเภทใหม่ ๆ

ในด้านกำลังการผลิต ผู้บริหารคาดว่ากำลังการผลิตในยุโรปจะยังคงตึงตัวอย่างน้อยในช่วงสองถึงสามปีข้างหน้า แม้จะมีการประกาศขยายกำลังการผลิตโดย AMP และคู่แข่งก็ตาม ขณะที่กำลังการผลิตในอเมริกาเหนือก็เริ่มตึงตัวเช่นกันในบางขนาดและบางพื้นที่ แม้ว่าปัจจุบัน AMP จะยังมีพื้นที่ให้เติบโตได้หลังจากการปรับสัญญาใหม่ก็ตาม

ผู้บริหารอธิบายว่าปี 2027 เป็นปีที่มีการต่ออายุสัญญาต่ำกว่าค่าเฉลี่ย โดยในยุโรป ลูกค้ากำลังพยายามสร้างความมั่นใจเกี่ยวกับปริมาณการจัดส่งในอนาคตเมื่อมีการเพิ่มกำลังการผลิตใหม่ ซึ่งช่วยให้ AMP มีความชัดเจนของสัญญาเพิ่มขึ้นสำหรับปี 2027, 2028 และปีต่อ ๆ ไป

เพื่อชดเชยเงินเฟ้อ AMP กำลังดำเนินการลดน้ำหนักกระป๋อง ลดอัตราการสูญเสีย เพิ่มประสิทธิภาพของโรงงาน ประหยัดต้นทุนการจัดซื้อจัดจ้าง และควบคุมค่าใช้จ่ายในการขายและบริหาร (SG&A) โดยคาดว่ากลไกการกำหนดราคากับลูกค้าจะช่วยชดเชยแรงกดดันด้านต้นทุนได้บางส่วน แม้ว่าผู้บริหารยังคงคาดว่าจะมีผลกระทบตกค้างอยู่บ้างในปี 2027

บันทึกคำต่อคำการแถลงผลประกอบการฉบับเต็ม

บทถอดเสียงฉบับเต็มของการประชุมทางโทรศัพท์ผลประกอบการ

คำชี้แจงจากฝ่ายบริหาร

Operator

Welcome to the Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. Q3 2026 Investor Call. Today's conference is being recorded.

At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Stephen Lyons, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Stephen Lyons

Thank you, operator, and welcome, everybody. Thank you for joining today for Ardagh Metal Packaging's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call, which follows the earlier publication of AMP's earnings release for the third quarter.

I'm joined today by Oliver Graham, AMP's Chief Executive Officer; and Stefan Schellinger, AMP's Chief Financial Officer.

Before moving to your questions, we will first provide some introductory remarks around AMP's performance and outlook. AMP's earnings release and related materials for the third quarter can be found on AMP's website at ir.ardaghmetalpackaging.com.

Remarks today will include certain forward-looking statements and include use of non-IFRS financial measures. Actual results could vary materially from such statements. Please review the details of AMP's forward-looking statements disclaimer and reconciliation of non-IFRS financial measures to IFRS financial measures in AMP's earnings release.

I will now turn the call over to Oliver Graham.

Oliver Graham

Thanks, Stephen. We delivered a strong performance in the third quarter with growth in global shipments and adjusted EBITDA ahead of our guidance. Beverage can shipments increased by 2%, driven by strong growth in Europe of 6%, partly offset by a decline of 1% in the Americas, which represented a sequential quarterly improvement, supported by the strength of our customer portfolio.

Our adjusted EBITDA outperformance in the quarter reflected good results in both segments. Europe continued to benefit from robust volume growth, and the Americas was supported by a favorable category mix in North America, compensating for the expected volume reductions from the previously discussed contract resets.

Beverage can industry demand remains resilient across each of our markets, driven by strength in key categories and continued share gains in the packaging mix. Given this demand strength, we are pleased to announce that we are accelerating and upscaling our previously outlined investments in Europe to capture this growth and to support our customers by building 2 new can lines in existing facilities in the attractive markets of the U.K. and Spain.

Before we discuss the quarter in more detail, I'd like to address developments regarding the AMP sale process. On August 13, Ardagh Holdings, AMP's controlling shareholder, announced that advisers have been appointed to prepare for a potential sale of AMP, and this process is ongoing. We will not be taking any questions on the topic on this call. Our focus remains on driving AMP's operational and financial performance.

Now looking at AMP's Q3 results by segment. In Europe, third quarter revenue increased by 11% to $693 million or by 12% on a constant currency basis compared with the same period in 2025. This was due to the pass-through of higher input costs and volume growth. Shipments increased by 6% for the quarter, which reflected underlying growth across all categories.

We experienced strong growth in carbonated soft drinks and in the energy category, as well across our diverse range of smaller growing categories. Reported beer volumes declined slightly versus the prior year quarter, reflecting certain contract resets at the beginning of the year, while industry beer volumes filled in cans showed good growth in our main markets.

Third quarter adjusted EBITDA in Europe increased by 11% to $91 million versus the prior year on both a reported and a constant currency basis. Adjusted EBITDA growth was mainly driven by a higher input cost recovery and strong volume growth, partly offset by the impact of the IFRS 15 contract asset as well as slightly higher operations and overhead costs.

Regarding our direct energy exposure in Europe, AMP is well covered for its energy needs. For 2027, we're over 80% hedged, and we're over 70% covered for 2028. From our analysis of beverage industry scanner data by packaging type for the third quarter, we see strong overall beverage consumption trends in key categories as well as a continued share gain for the beverage can in the pack mix, particularly in CSD.

For full year 2026, following strong commercial momentum during the summer and with continued robust demand, we expect to at least meet our guidance for approximately 3% volume growth in Europe. Capacity remains tight in the region. And as indicated in my opening remarks, to support our customers' growth and based on their commitments, we have decided to accelerate and upsize the previously announced growth investments in Spain and in the U.K. These investments represent attractive high-return capital deployment opportunities and will drive material adjusted EBITDA growth for AMP in Europe from 2028 onwards.

As we are reaching the end of 2026, we will give some preliminary comments about 2027 before our formal guidance at our full year results. In Europe, we expect AMP to show strong volume growth in the range of 3% to 4%, in line with the industry as we go into the remainder of our available capacity.

Turning to the Americas. Revenue in the third quarter increased by 25% to approximately $1 million (sic) [ $1 billion ], principally reflecting the pass-through of higher input cost to customers, including the impact of higher metal costs and freight cost pass-through, partly offset by lower shipments. Americas adjusted EBITDA for the quarter decreased by 3% versus the prior year to $122 million as a result of lower volumes, higher operations and overhead costs as well as lower input cost recovery versus the prior year quarter, partly offset by favorable category mix, in particular, strength in specialty can volumes in North America.

In North America, shipments for the quarter were down less than 1% versus the prior year. This improved sequential shipments performance versus the first half reflects the strength of our customer portfolio, largely offsetting the expected impact of contract resets. Underlying demand dynamics in the industry remain strong with supportive year-to-date industry scanner data, apart from the beer category to which AMP has only a low single-digit exposure. In particular, the energy category continues to show strong growth, supported by broader distribution and successful innovation. Looking into 2027 in North America, as we have previously guided, we expect a return to shipments growth at least in line with the industry. This reflects our attractive portfolio mix as well as some contractual gains.

In Brazil, third quarter beverage can shipments decreased by 5% due to customer mix and a contract reset. This lagged improved industry growth in the quarter, which was driven by a strong performance from the major brewer. We are now entering the busier summer selling season in Brazil, and we anticipate an improved performance with moderate shipments growth in the fourth quarter. In terms of 2027, while we remain confident in the long-term mid-single-digit percentage growth rate for the Brazilian can market, we recognize the volatility of the market in recent years as well as our previously mentioned contractual reset, and we are expecting moderate volume growth for AMP.

I'll hand over now to Stefan to talk you through our financial position for the quarter before finishing with some concluding remarks.

Stefan Schellinger

Thanks, Ollie, and good morning, good afternoon, everyone. We ended the quarter with a robust liquidity position of $736 million. Net debt over the last 12 months adjusted EBITDA of 5.1x at quarter end compares with 5.2x for prior year's Q3. On a comparable like-for-like basis, pro forma for the Q4 2025 refinancing of the preferred shares, the net leverage ratio has reduced from 5.6x in the prior year quarter as a result of AMP's strong adjusted EBITDA growth.

Our guidance for the various free cash flow components for full year 2026 is mostly unchanged, and we approximately expect the following: total CapEx of $240 million, cash interest of $220 million, lease principal repayments of approximately $120 million, cash tax of approximately $30 million and a small outflow in working capital.

Ollie already discussed earlier our growth projects for Europe. These 2 investments will lead to an increase of total growth CapEx from $90 million in 2026 to approximately $250 million in 2027 before returning to a more normalized level in 2028. These growth investments represent very attractive capital deployment opportunities, will support AMP's and our customers' continued growth in Europe and will drive adjusted EBITDA growth in 2028 and beyond.

Finally, today, we have announced our unchanged quarterly ordinary dividend of $0.10 per share.

With that, I'll hand it back to Ollie.

Oliver Graham

Thanks, Stefan. Before moving to take your questions, I'll just recap on AMP's performance and key messages. Global volumes increased by 2% and adjusted EBITDA of $213 million in the third quarter exceeded our guidance, reflecting a strong performance in both segments. Reflecting our strong performance, we're upgrading our guidance range for 2026 full year adjusted EBITDA to be between $785 million and $795 million. Our Q4 guidance reflects current FX rates, some inflation headwinds and the quarter also lapped strong prior year shipments growth of 4%.

While not giving specific guidance for 2027, as we sit here today, the year is shaping up for a stronger global volume performance, led by a return to at least industry growth in North America volumes and continued strong European performance despite some weakness in Brazil. In terms of profitability, we are operating in a more inflationary environment, but given our robust pass-through mechanisms and our continued focus on operational improvements, together with our positive outlook for volume growth, we still expect to show moderate year-over-year adjusted EBITDA growth at constant currency.

Having made these opening remarks, we'll now proceed to take any questions that you may have.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And we'll go to our first question from Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

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Arun Viswanathan

I guess I just wanted to get your thoughts on maybe 2 things. So first off, on the volume outlook. I was just curious if you guys are -- you noted some strength in many of your categories. Maybe you can just broadly comment on in the Americas, where you're seeing strength, obviously, in energy and sparkling water. But do you expect that to continue, I guess, especially in the face of increasing inflation, do your beverage customers -- do you get the sense that they're still pushing volume and promotions? Or is there a possibility that you could see some increased prices and that would impact demand?

Oliver Graham

Yes. No, I mean, I think we already have inflation in the system, and we're not seeing any particular negative impact. So I think our impression is that off-trade volumes, obviously, to some extent, do better in inflationary times because consumers pull out of -- out-of-home consumption and pull back more into the off-trade. The can is a very efficient vehicle for transporting and selling beverages. So it's very good if you want to promote. Promotional activity looks normal. So much stronger than it was in the COVID years. And so it's returned to more normal levels.

And I think we're seeing strength, as we mentioned in the remarks, particularly in the energy sector in cans. So still well north of mid-single digits, but also good strength in CSD, which is a much bigger category. So also very positive for the can and reflecting pack mix change and also certain segments of CSD growing well.

Sparkling waters has been a bit up and down. But overall, if you look back over the last few years, definitely a very positive category for the can. And then you have all the new drinks, the sort of healthy wellness drinks, the gut health drinks also in really strong growth. So yes, the only negative, if you look at North America is really beer in cans, which has been weak for a number of years now. And as we said in the remarks, we have a very low exposure to that category. So if you look at our portfolio, it's got good growth, good innovation still coming to the category.

And then Brazil, we're talking Americas, it's really still mostly beer. You have good growth in CSD and increasingly in energy drinks, but off a much smaller base. But the good news for Q3, we didn't fully participate in this, but the good news for Q3 is I think we had something like 7% growth in beer in cans, so much better, which puts a year-to-date number of 3.5% for the industry in cans. So that's a very good number back more to where we'd expect after a relatively weaker first half.

So yes, I think as we look across the world, but you asked about the Americas, I think we don't see any particular headwinds from the inflationary environment. We see a lot of positivity around can growth.

Arun Viswanathan

Okay. And if I could just ask a follow-up. I know that you're not really commenting on the sale process, but I just wanted to ask a question about some of the capacity that you have. It sounds like you are in plans of expanding your capacity. Would that be affected at all by any of the process that you're taking? And I guess, related, is there a possibility that your network could be split up and kind of owned different -- by different parties? Or is it likely that it will remain in one piece?

Oliver Graham

Yes. Look, as we said, we're not commenting on it. I think AMP is a very strong global competitor with strength in all 3 regions, and there are strong advantages to being a global competitor in the can industry as we can see from who survives and grows, but we're not commenting on the process. The capacity plans are completely independent of the process. So we're operating as an independent company with a controlling shareholder. That's how we have to keep operating at the moment. And those capacity plans are, yes, as I say, completely independent of the process.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We move next to Matt Roberts with Raymond James.

Matthew Roberts

On Brazil, I think it was still down, peers saw increases. It sounds like market was up. Any considerations by customer in 3Q? Or was that really due to that customer reset? And on the Brazil volume outlook for '27 being a little bit lower than that long-term grade -- reset versus general customer demand...

Oliver Graham

Yes, Matt, you broke up a bit, but I think we got the point, which is it's about Brazil and the general customer situation versus the contract reset. So most of this is about the contract reset. We have puts and takes with other customers, but we'd be up at or around or above even up market growth without the reset. So I think, yes, the majority of the guidance we're giving you and the explanations we're giving you for 2026 and for 2027 are linked to that.

As we said, there was a very encouraging return to growth in Q3 in Brazil. We said it in the remarks. We strongly believe it's a long-term, very positive growth market for the can. There's still very good fundamentals with the switch from 2-way glass to single-use packaging, of which can is the main packaging in Brazil. So yes, market is still very good. Ups and downs with our customer base generally. But yes, most of the impact you're seeing on our guidance and explanations for '26 and '27 is that reset.

Matthew Roberts

Hope I'm a little bit clear now, but -- maybe one other on inflation, more so on the cost side, how that tracked versus the expectations you had in July? Any variances between U.S. and Europe there or incremental impact to 4Q or spillover into 2027?

Oliver Graham

Yes, I'll start and then obviously, Stefan add if there's anything I missed. I think slightly more negative than at our Q2 just because I think at that point, oil price had dropped. There seem to be a high likelihood of a resolution to the situation in the Middle East, whereas now obviously, seems to be very frozen in terms of improvement. So yes, slightly more headwind we see going into Q4 probably and into '27, with the majority of the impact probably more European, though I think ODMs is the big category, the direct materials. We've called that out before in terms of coatings being a part of our cost structure that's most linked to oil price. So yes, that's probably the high-level view. I don't know, Stefan, if you'd add anything to that.

Stefan Schellinger

Yes. So there's a little bit on the freight side, but we have a very good recovery here and pass-through mechanisms -- there's also a little bit on the energy side, probably more so in Europe. But then again, there's the pass-through side of things, plus we have a hedging policy and are significantly covered for the year 2027 and beyond. So I think net-net, I think these are probably the key items to call out.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Josh Spector with UBS.

Joshua Spector

I had some similar questions on cost. So it might be a little bit redundant. But I guess, near term, if I look at your -- how you talked about fourth quarter, I think your volumes you're talking about up a couple of percent-ish overall. Your EBITDA guidance down about 4% to 5% at the midpoint versus you were up a couple of percent on a couple of percent volume in 2Q. So is that incremental inflation in fourth quarter? Is there something else going on in terms of some lead lag items that we should be considering?

Oliver Graham

Yes. Again, I'll kick it off and Stefan can add if necessary. But so look, I think we did say we're lapping a very strong Q4 last year. I think we had 8% growth in North America with good mix and 4% overall. But it's also true that there is some volume growth in Q4 for us. So I think there's some FX headwinds as we see, obviously, the dollar strengthening a little bit relative to the euro. There are some timing effects. We called out, I think, in our Q2 results that we had some impact in the first half of the year that would reverse out in the second half around metal timings and some freight hedge timings.

And then there is the inflationary headwinds that we just talked about, which is really around the coatings, which is probably the key factor. So yes, those are the main elements. Obviously, at the top end of the guidance, we're more or less flat year-on-year, midpoint, a few million off. So it's not anything dramatic, but those are the 2 or 3 headwinds, I think. Stefan is nodding, so I think we're okay.

Joshua Spector

How much are coatings as a percentage of your COGS? I'm surprised that you and your peers as well are kind of citing that as a surprise factor here. I didn't think it was that big, but it must be. Can you provide any range?

Oliver Graham

It's in the single digits. But when the oil price spikes like this, it's very meaningful, and we do buy a lot of them. So yes, I think it's just that they are products with pass-through in year. We then catch up with our PPI and other pass-through mechanisms over the year-end. So we see them more in year than other COGS categories. And as I said, it's been a very material step-up in the underlying cost base for them. But yes, so -- and we're not talking huge numbers, but certainly relevant enough to be a headwind for Q4 and going into '27.

Operator

We turn next to Nicholas Sherwood with Bank of America.

Nicholas Sherwood

Asking for George Staphos. So now that you've been in this higher inflation, higher oil price environment for a couple of months now, where are you seeing areas where you can find those incremental savings and mitigate inflation through the end of the year and the beginning of the year?

Oliver Graham

I mean, look, we're always working on productivity and efficiency. It's just the nature of the industry. So there's lots of areas we look. We lightweight the can, reduce metal. We have every year very stretched targets on the plants for reducing spoilage and running more efficiently and using capacity more effectively. We look in every corner of our SG&A. We have very significant programs around that every year. And then obviously, we have a very active procurement function looking at saving on the input cost.

So all of the above is the answer every time. And that's just the nature of the beast. It's that kind of industry. And if you're not doing that every year, to a significant extent, you fall behind the industry and then your pricing gets out of line. So yes, I don't see there's anything particularly new in what we're doing. Obviously, we're in very engaged conversations with the suppliers involved about how we face some of those price increases and manage those over time. But there's no particular magic to this. It's just a significant unexpected rise in cost within the year.

And then as I said, what we'll see over the next few months is our pass-throughs kicking in, in terms of our year-end, they go into the next year in terms of our customer pricing. And so that will start to mitigate some of these impacts. But nevertheless, we still see some impact of that in 2027 relative to our original expectations.

Nicholas Sherwood

Okay. And then my second question is, is there anything notable that you've seen in the early volume trends for the fourth quarter and the beginning of 2027, if you have any visibility into that?

Oliver Graham

I think they're all good. I mean I really think the beverage can industry is in a strong position at the moment. And despite the macro environment, to the points I made at the top of the call, we're not seeing that impact on the industry volumes or our volumes. So Europe, I think volume growth is really strong. And 6% in Q3, if you go back 10 years, we'd have all died for these numbers, and our peers are reporting very similar numbers. They've been ahead of us in some quarters. We're ahead this quarter. European can growth is really benefiting, I think, in the pack mix. And also, we're seeing much more innovation in soft drinks, in particular, going into the can.

And then North America, bigger market, but still growing overall, despite the drag on the beer category, we still see growth and particularly, again, in soft drinks, energy drinks and the new drinks. And despite the inflationary environment we see in North America and Brazil, as I said, we're now after what was a pretty tough first half. We're at 3.5% year-to-date, 7% in the quarter. And we're going into the summer season.

And we don't see anything different for 2027, to be honest. I mean we had a very tight summer in Europe on key sizes, lots of issues fulfilling demand, not just us, the whole industry. That's why we've talked about upscaling and accelerating our investments because we're conscious that we're not supporting our customers' growth to the extent they need. And again, that's because they're putting a lot more innovation and product into cans.

North America, certainly see very positive trends into next year. Again, a lot of innovation going into cans, a lot of new products coming. And Brazil, I think it's very up and down at the moment. We called that out. But again, it's just a very long-term fundamental shift of filling from 2-way glass into cans. So I think the industry is in a really good place. I think we're well positioned to take advantage of that growth with the strength of our customer relationships, the commitments they're making, and that's why we're investing more in 2027 to capture that growth. So yes, all good, I think, is the short answer to the question.

Operator

We'll go next to Michael Roxland with Truist Securities.

Niccolo Piccini

This is Nico on for Mike. Just starting out, can you help us understand maybe the competitive backdrop with yourself and your peers adding capacity by region, but also projecting strong demand. Do you think that the current capacity expansion plans are enough to fully capture your demand expectations? And then with that tight capacity, could that incentivize maybe new entrants into the market in the next few years?

Oliver Graham

Yes. No. Yes, good question, Mike. I mean, I think Europe, we're all struggling to follow the demand is my impression. Again, I think we had, as an industry, a tough summer. Operationally, there were challenges for everybody, I think, with some of the transitions on coatings and particularly weather effects. But nevertheless, I think the capacity just wasn't there for the scale of demand. And we've seen announcements by ourselves and our peers. But I think with the sort of level of growth we're getting and the scale that the European market has reached, we're going to stay in a tight situation, would be my prediction for the next at least 2, 3 years while we all recognize it and respond to it.

I don't personally see a big threat from new entrants. I think there was -- a lot of new entrants tried that during the COVID period and pretty much all gone. I think this is an industry with scale where you need scale. I talked about it. I think being a global competitor is a significant advantage in this industry, the scale at every level. And so yes, I mean, maybe, but I don't see that as a particular threat to our growth or our profitability.

Yes, and I'd make the same comments, North America and Brazil. I think North America is starting to feel tight on key sizes in key -- some key geographies. At the moment, we've got some capacity to grow into with the contract resets we had this year. So we're okay for the moment. But I think the industry as a whole is definitely tightening up.

And Brazil, it will come. We have some capacity. We've talked about it, particularly in the Northeast. But again, capacity is coming into the market to respond to geographical demand and all of that's very positive for the industry and helps also keep the industry in a good spot from a profitability point of view. So I don't see new entrants at the moment, and I don't see them having any material impact on the main players.

Niccolo Piccini

Understood. And then just a quick follow-up would be on debt levels and your ability or need to refinance maturities that are coming due in the next couple of years. What might that do, I guess, to interest expense in 2027, if you thought about it yet?

Oliver Graham

No, we're obviously always thinking about our financing situation. And as you say, there are maturities coming up. So yes, we're very much reviewing that situation. I don't think we've got anything to update today, but...

Stefan Schellinger

No, obviously, our '28 maturities are the next sort of in line. As you would expect, we are proactively thinking about this. Clearly, there will be some incremental, if and when we refinance, it will be at a higher cost given where markets are today. But then again, it will be a function of when and then what market we're going to basically tap. So yes, more to come, I think, in that regard.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And we'll go next to Anthony Pettinari with Citi.

Anthony Pettinari

I was disconnected earlier, so I apologize if this was already asked. But just as you look to '27 after kind of a transition year this year and you think about percentage of contracts up for renewal or major contracts up for renewal, is that across the 3 regions, is that sort of an above average or below average year for contract turnover? Just how should we think about that after a transition year?

Oliver Graham

Yes. Anthony, I think definitely below average. So I think North America, in particular, we went through those big contract resets in '24, '25 -- and as you say, that had some impact on '26. It also has some positive impact on 2027 and so we've also called out where we've talked about growing at least in line with the industry. And actually, we would definitely hope to grow above based on those resets.

And then I think similarly in South America, similar story. I think it's a below average year. And also, I think the European situation is definitely shifting a bit where with the investments that are coming in, I think understandably, customers are keen to contract and secure volumes, and we're keen, obviously, to secure volumes for those investments and so are our peers. So yes, it looks like at the minute, we're getting to a pretty contracted spot for 2027 and 2028 and beyond actually. So I think the short answer to the question is these look like below average years for the -- certainly the next 12 to 18, 24 months.

Anthony Pettinari

Great. Great. That's very helpful. And then just maybe one last one. It seems like bev cans are certainly gaining share on glass in North America and Europe. I'm just wondering, Brazil is maybe a little bit of a unique market in terms of their glass float. I'm just wondering if you could talk about the substitution dynamic that you're seeing or not seeing in Brazil. Just curious there.

Oliver Graham

Yes. I think it's a long-term dynamic. So obviously, the major brewer was the main determinant of that dynamic for a long time because they controlled the 2-way glass float and the position there. So depending where they wanted to push volumes into glass or 2-way glass or into cans, they could shift the market. And obviously, from that, the [ turn is ] sort of 2019 onwards, they really shifted into the off-trade to avoid losing any more share.

And then, yes, had a blip. We had a blip, I think, '22, '23 with very high metal prices where they pushed a bit more back into glass, but that was very temporary. And if we look at Q3, they've clearly pushed hard on metal again and the off-trade, which is the natural trend that you have in every market as they develop, the off-trade develops, you get mass supermarkets, big trade and you get promotions in cans and obviously, cheaper beer attracts consumers and that puts pressure on the on-trade.

So yes, I think that long-term trend of 2-way glass into one-way cans is fully intact and has got quite a long way to run in Brazil, which is why we feel so confident about the market and why we talk about a long-term mid-single-digit growth rate for that market.

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I'll turn the floor to Oliver Graham for any closing remarks.

Oliver Graham

Thanks, Linda. And yes, thanks to everybody on the call. So I think just to summarize, strong performance in the third quarter, growth in global shipments and adjusted EBITDA ahead of our guidance and reflecting that strong performance, we're upgrading our '26 full year adjusted EBITDA guidance to between $785 million and $795 million. And with that, we look forward to talking to you again at our Q4 results.

Operator

This concludes today's conference. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at this time.