การประชุมผลประกอบการไตรมาส 3 ปี 2026 ของ Prologis (PLD): FFO, ศูนย์ข้อมูล และแนวโน้มผลประกอบการ

ประเด็นสำคัญ

• พรอลอจิสรายงาน FFO หลักประจำไตรมาส 3 ปี 2026 ที่ 1.60 ดอลลาร์ต่อหุ้น หรือ 1.61 ดอลลาร์หากไม่รวมค่าใช้จ่าย Promote สุทธิ ขณะที่อัตราการเช่า ณ สิ้นไตรมาสเพิ่มขึ้น 10 basis points จากไตรมาสก่อนหน้าสู่ระดับ 95.6%.
• การเปลี่ยนแปลงของค่าเช่าสุทธิที่แท้จริงเมื่อต่อสัญญาแตะระดับ 38% สร้าง NOI ส่วนเพิ่มจำนวน 85 ล้านดอลลาร์ ส่วนการปรับมูลค่าสัญญาเช่าตามราคาตลาดอยู่ที่ 16% ซึ่งคิดเป็น NOI แฝงประมาณ 780 ล้านดอลลาร์ ณ ราคาค่าเช่าตลาดปัจจุบัน
• NOI ของสาขาเดิมเพิ่มขึ้น 5.7% บนเกณฑ์สุทธิที่แท้จริง และ 5.9% บนเกณฑ์เงินสด โดยฝ่ายบริหารได้ปรับเพิ่มประมาณการการเติบโตของสาขาเดิมตลอดทั้งปี พร้อมทั้งบีบกรอบประมาณการอัตราการเช่าเฉลี่ยให้แคบลง
• โครงการศูนย์ข้อมูลในแผนพัฒนามีจำนวนรวม 5.8 กิกะวัตต์ ประกอบด้วย พลังงานที่จัดหาได้แล้ว 1.7 กิกะวัตต์ และ โครงการในระยะขั้นสูง 4.1 กิกะวัตต์ โดยมีหนังสือแสดงเจตจำนง (LOI) ครอบคลุมประมาณ 1 กิกะวัตต์ ซึ่งฝ่ายบริหารคาดว่าจะเริ่มดำเนินการส่วนใหญ่ในปี 2027
• พรอลอจิสได้ปรับเพิ่มประมาณการการเริ่มพัฒนาโครงการปี 2026 เป็น 6.0 พันล้าน-6.75 พันล้านดอลลาร์ โดยมีปัจจัยหนุนหลักจากโครงการสร้างตามความต้องการของผู้เช่าในไตรมาสที่สี่ที่คาดไว้
• ผู้ถือหุ้นของ SEGRO อนุมัติการควบรวมกิจการที่เสนอเมื่อวันที่ 28 กันยายน โดยพรอลอจิสยังคงคาดว่าการควบรวมจะเสร็จสิ้นในครึ่งแรกของปี 2027 ทั้งนี้ขึ้นอยู่กับการอนุมัติตามกฎระเบียบ

ข้อมูลทางการเงินที่สำคัญ

ผลการดำเนินงานทางธุรกิจและการปฏิบัติการ

พรอลอจิสได้ลงนามในสัญญาเช่าพื้นที่รวม 60 ล้านตารางฟุต ในระหว่างไตรมาส และระบุว่าโครงการเช่าในแผนได้รับการเติมเต็มอย่างสมบูรณ์ บริษัทยังคงดำเนินงานได้ตามเป้าหมายสำหรับกิจกรรมการจัดสรรเงินทุนและการหมุนเวียนทุนประมาณ 15 พันล้านดอลลาร์ ในปี 2026

ในสหรัฐฯ ยอดดูดซับสุทธิในไตรมาส 3 มีจำนวนรวม 63 ล้านตารางฟุต สอดคล้องกับกรอบปกติประจำปีของฝ่ายบริหารที่ 230 ล้าน-240 ล้านตารางฟุต อัตราว่างในตลาดลดลง 10 basis points สู่ระดับ 7.1% ขณะที่ค่าเช่าตลาดเพิ่มขึ้น 50 basis points ซึ่งเป็นการเติบโตติดต่อกันเป็นไตรมาสที่สาม

ฝ่ายบริหารได้เน้นย้ำว่า ดัลลัส, ฮิวสตัน, แอตแลนตา, ฟีนิกซ์, อินเดียนาโพลิส และแคลิฟอร์เนียตอนเหนือ เป็นตลาดที่มีแนวโน้มเติบโตของค่าเช่า 5%-6% ในปี 2026 นอกจากนี้ ยังระบุว่าแคลิฟอร์เนียตอนใต้กำลังฟื้นตัว โดยมีอัตราการเช่าของตลาดอยู่ที่ 93.5% และพอร์ตโฟลิโอของพรอลอจิสมีอัตราการเช่าเกือบ 97%.

อุปสงค์จากลูกค้าที่สนับสนุนห่วงโซ่อุปทานของศูนย์ข้อมูลคิดเป็นประมาณ 10% ของสัญญาเช่าใหม่ทั่วโลก และ 17% ในสหรัฐฯ ในช่วงไตรมาสดังกล่าว พรอลอจิสประเมินว่ากลุ่มลูกค้านี้อาจมีความต้องการพื้นที่มากกว่า 150 ล้านตารางฟุต ไปจนถึงสิ้นทศวรรษเพื่อการก่อสร้างและการให้บริการอย่างต่อเนื่อง

อัตราว่างของพื้นที่โลจิสติกส์ในยุโรปยังคงอยู่ในระดับต่ำที่ 5.3% ขณะที่ค่าเช่าตลาดเพิ่มขึ้น 70 basis points จากไตรมาสก่อน และเพิ่มขึ้น 275 basis points เมื่อเทียบกับช่วงเดียวกันของปีก่อน ฝ่ายบริหารได้ระบุว่าเนเธอร์แลนด์ สหราชอาณาจักร สเปน และอิตาลี เป็นตลาดที่แข็งแกร่งกว่าสำหรับการเติบโตของค่าเช่าและโอกาสในการจัดสรรเงินทุน

บริษัทเป็นเจ้าของหรือถือครองสิทธิในพื้นที่ที่รองรับการพัฒนาโลจิสติกส์ในระยะถัดไปมูลค่า 40 พันล้านดอลลาร์ ฝ่ายบริหารระบุว่าระดับค่าเช่าที่จำเป็นต้องมีเพื่อให้คุ้มค่าต่อการก่อสร้างใหม่ในปัจจุบันอยู่สูงกว่าค่าเช่าตลาด 27% ซึ่งสะท้อนถึงต้นทุนการก่อสร้าง ค่าใช้จ่ายทางการเงิน และผลตอบแทนที่ต้องการที่สูงขึ้น

ประมาณการของฝ่ายบริหาร

ฝ่ายบริหารคาดว่าโครงการสร้างตามความต้องการของผู้เช่าจะคิดเป็น 55%-65% ของการเริ่มพัฒนาโครงการตลอดทั้งปี แนวโน้มการเริ่มพัฒนาโครงการที่สูงขึ้นนั้นสะท้อนถึงโครงการ Build-to-suit ขนาดใหญ่ที่คาดว่าจะเกิดขึ้นในไตรมาสที่สี่เป็นหลัก ส่วนการเริ่มพัฒนาโครงการส่วนที่เหลือทั้งหมดคาดว่าจะเป็นการพัฒนาโครงการโลจิสติกส์ใหม่

ความเสี่ยงและประเด็นที่ต้องจับตา

อัตราผลตอบแทนพันธบัตรรัฐบาลที่สูงขึ้นกำลังขยายส่วนต่างราคาเสนอซื้อและเสนอขาย (Bid-ask spreads) ชะลอการตัดสินใจทำธุรกรรม และอาจกดดันมูลค่าอสังหาริมทรัพย์ พรอลอจิสคาดว่าปริมาณการทำธุรกรรมจะชะลอตัวลงในระยะสั้น ในขณะที่ผู้ซื้อและผู้ขายกำลังประเมินอัตราผลตอบแทนจากการลงทุนขั้นสุดท้าย (Exit capitalization rates) ใหม่อีกครั้ง

บริษัทได้ปรับเพิ่มเกณฑ์ขั้นต่ำในการจัดสรรเงินทุน (Capital-allocation hurdle) ท่ามกลางความผันผวนของอัตราดอกเบี้ย นอกจากนี้ ฝ่ายบริหารยังปรับลดประมาณการการโอนสินทรัพย์เข้ากองทุนและการจำหน่ายสินทรัพย์ลง โดยอ้างถึงความระมัดระวังเกี่ยวกับราคาและการเลื่อนธุรกรรมบางรายการไปเป็นปีถัดไป

โครงการศูนย์ข้อมูลยังคงต้องเผชิญกับกระบวนการที่ใช้เวลานานในการจัดหาพลังงาน การขออนุมัติสิทธิ์ และการเจรจากับลูกค้า ฝ่ายบริหารกล่าวว่าโครงการในแผนจำนวน 5.8 กิกะวัตต์ ยังไม่ได้รับผลกระทบจากการชะลอหรือระงับโครงการเฉพาะทาง ทั้งนี้ การตรวจสอบหรือการหยุดพักโครงการอาจทำให้บางโครงการล่าช้าออกไปหลายเดือนหรือประมาณหนึ่งถึงสองไตรมาส

กรอบเวลาการรวมกิจการกับ SEGRO ยังคงขึ้นอยู่กับการอนุมัติตามกฎระเบียบ ฝ่ายบริหารไม่ได้คาดหวังว่าประมาณการขั้นแรกสำหรับปี 2027 จะรวมผลกระทบเฉพาะจาก SEGRO เนื่องจากธุรกรรมดังกล่าวน่าจะยังไม่เสร็จสิ้น ณ จุดนั้น และวันปิดขายที่แน่นอนยังมีความไม่แน่นอน

ประเด็นสำคัญจากการตอบคำถามนักวิเคราะห์

• อัตราว่างและการเติบโตของค่าเช่า: ฝ่ายบริหารระบุว่าอัตราว่างในสหรัฐฯ ลดลงจากจุดสูงสุดที่ 7.5% สู่ระดับ 7.1% และมีแนวโน้มจะแตะระดับ 7% ภายในสิ้นปี หลายตลาดเริ่มสร้างการเติบโตของค่าเช่าในระดับเลขหลักเดียวช่วงกลางแล้ว แม้อัตราว่างจะอยู่ในช่วง 7% กลางถึงสูงก็ตาม โดยได้รับปัจจัยหนุนจากอุปสงค์ที่แข็งแกร่ง
• การเริ่มพัฒนาโครงการ: การปรับเพิ่มประมาณการไม่ได้สะท้อนถึงการลดมาตรฐานการรับประกันความเสี่ยง ฝ่ายบริหารชี้ว่าการเพิ่มขึ้นเกิดจากโครงการสร้างตามความต้องการของผู้เช่าในแผนที่มีขนาดใหญ่ขึ้นประมาณ 20%-25% เมื่อเทียบกับช่วงเดียวกันของปีที่แล้วเป็นหลัก
• กลยุทธ์การเข้าซื้อกิจการ: พรอลอจิสยังคงมุ่งเน้นที่ผลตอบแทนรวม ส่วนลดต่อต้นทุนการทดแทน และการปรับมูลค่าสัญญาเช่าตามราคาตลาดที่ซ่อนอยู่ ฐานทุนของบริษัทช่วยให้สามารถถือครองสินทรัพย์ได้นานขึ้นในขณะที่สัญญาเช่าที่มีราคาต่ำกว่าราคาตลาดได้รับการปรับใหม่
• การดำเนินงานโครงการศูนย์ข้อมูล: ฝ่ายบริหารเน้นย้ำว่าการเจรจากับผู้ให้บริการไทป์ไฮเปอร์สเกลมีความยืดเยื้อและกรอบเวลาโครงการไม่แน่นอน พรอลอจิสได้เริ่มพัฒนาโครงการศูนย์ข้อมูลมูลค่ามากกว่า 2 พันล้านดอลลาร์ ไปแล้วในปี 2026 และยังคงเติมเต็มโครงการ LOI ในแผนอย่างต่อเนื่องเมื่อโครงการต่างๆ เริ่มต้นขึ้น
• เศรษฐศาสตร์ของการเช่า: ค่าใช้จ่ายในการเปลี่ยนผ่านผู้เช่าที่สูงขึ้นเป็นผลมาจากส่วนผสมของการปล่อยเช่าและการเติบโตของอัตราการเช่าเป็นหลัก ช่วงเว้นว่างค่าเช่าเมื่อเทียบเป็นเปอร์เซ็นต์ของมูลค่าสัญญาเช่าลดลงจากไตรมาสก่อน อย่างไรก็ตาม ฝ่ายบริหารเตือนว่าตัวเลขดังกล่าวอาจยังคงผันผวนก่อนที่จะขยับเข้าใกล้ 3% ในระยะยาว
• ความไวต่ออัตราดอกเบี้ย: กลุ่มอุปสงค์แบบดั้งเดิมที่ไวต่ออัตราดอกเบี้ยชะลอตัวลงเล็กน้อย แต่ฝ่ายบริหารกล่าวว่าอีคอมเมิร์ซ การปรับปรุงห่วงโซ่อุปทานให้ทันสมัย และการปล่อยเช่าที่เกี่ยวข้องกับศูนย์ข้อมูลยังคงสนับสนุนอุปสงค์ในแผนงานอย่างเป็นเชิงบวก

บันทึกการถอดความการแถลงผลประกอบการฉบับเต็ม

บทถอดเสียงฉบับเต็มของการประชุมทางโทรศัพท์ผลประกอบการ

คำชี้แจงจากฝ่ายบริหาร

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Prologis Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Justin Meng, Global Head of IR and Strategic Initiatives. Thank you. You may begin.

Justin Meng

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Joining us today are Dan Letter, CEO; Tim Arndt, CFO; and Chris Caton, Managing Director.

I'd like to note that this call will contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including statements regarding our outlook, expectations and future performance. These statements are based on current assumptions and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to our SEC filings and third quarter earnings press release for a discussion of these risks. We undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

Additionally, during this call, we will discuss certain financial measures such as FFO and EBITDA that are non-GAAP. And in accordance with Reg G, we have provided a reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in our third quarter earnings press release and supplemental. Both are available on our website at www.prologis.com.

And with that, I will hand the call over to Dan.

Dan Letter

Thank you, Justin, and good morning, everyone. The third quarter was another strong example of our business model at work. Operations were excellent. We signed 60 million square feet of leases and fully replenished our pipeline, giving us clear visibility into what our customers need. We also remained active deploying and recycling capital and are on track for $15 billion of activity this year.

We reached another important milestone during the quarter. On September 28, SEGRO shareholders overwhelmingly approved the combination of Prologis and SEGRO. Following completion, we will have a 363 million (sic) [ 368 million ] square foot operating portfolio in Europe with greater scale to serve customers and a broader set of development opportunities across logistics and data centers. We appreciate the constructive engagement with the SEGRO leadership team and look forward to closing the transaction.

Before Tim walks you through the quarter, I want to spend a few minutes on the current environment, especially with the recent move in interest rates and how Prologis is positioned. Operating fundamentals are healthy, and we remain constructive on the outlook. Most of our customers are operating efficiently, so incremental growth in their businesses should translate into additional space requirements. At the same time, several long-term trends continue to drive demand for logistics real estate. E-commerce, advanced manufacturing and the build-out of the data center supply chain are all critical to the modern economy. Taken together, we expect demand to remain resilient even in a higher rate environment.

On the supply side, the bar for new development is going up. Construction costs are escalating, financing is more expensive and return requirements are trending higher. That makes projects harder to pencil at today's rents. All else equal, we expect fewer starts and a more favorable supply environment. That creates an attractive setup for rents. In a balanced market, logistics rents should grow above inflation over time. Today, the rents needed to justify new construction have expanded to 27% above current market levels. That leaves meaningful room for rents to grow before new supply makes economic sense.

That said, the capital markets backdrop has become more challenging. We think the recent move in rates will slow transaction activity and could put some pressure on values. Our bar for allocating capital was already high. And in response, we've raised it even further. But the fundamentals of logistics real estate remains strong, and our balance sheet gives us the flexibility to invest through changing market conditions. We also have an enormous opportunity in data centers, where our land, power and development capabilities give us multiple ways to create value. Add to that, what we can do across energy and strategic capital, and we are well positioned to create value for our customers and shareholders.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Tim.

Timothy Arndt

Thank you, Dan. We delivered another excellent quarter with core FFO of $1.60 per share and $1.61 per share, excluding net promote expense. We ended the quarter with 95.6% occupancy, up 10 basis points from the second quarter, with average occupancy of 95.1%, also a 10 basis point increase. Rent change on rollover was 38% on a net effective basis, adding $85 million of incremental NOI. And on a cash basis, rent change was 23%. Our lease mark-to-market ended the quarter at 16%, representing approximately $780 million of embedded NOI at spot rents. This does not capture the additional upside we expect as inflation and today's elevated replacement cost rents flow through over the coming years. In aggregate, we delivered same-store NOI growth of 5.7% on a net effective basis and 5.9% on cash.

Turning to capital deployment. We started $1 billion of development in the third quarter, bringing year-to-date starts to nearly $5 billion. Alongside this volume, we've been very successful replenishing strategic land positions and upholding a long runway for value creation. We own or control sites to develop the next $40 billion of logistics development with a highly capital-efficient land strategy. We acquired $950 million of real estate during the quarter at an estimated discount to replacement cost of 20%. Our disposition activity totaled $310 million, and we continue to focus on the positive IRR spread we generate between acquisitions and dispositions, which now stands at 150 basis points year-to-date.

In terms of data centers, the increasing difficulty of powering and entitling sites is certainly adding scarcity value to our portfolio, particularly alongside exceptionally strong customer demand. Our pipeline currently totals 5.8 gigawatts, including 1.7 of secured power and 4.1 in advanced stages. We are engaged with customers across the pipeline with letters of intent covering approximately 1 gigawatt, much of which we expect to start in 2027.

Turning to market conditions. The recovery in logistics demand continues to gain momentum. U.S. net absorption totaled 63 million square feet in the third quarter, a healthy level and consistent with what we view as normalized annual range of 230 million to 240 million square feet. This further underscores the growing improvement we've been highlighting for nearly 2 years. Market vacancy declined 10 basis points to 7.1% and market rents increased another 50 basis points, marking the third consecutive quarter of positive rent growth. Across the U.S., demand is broadening across geographies and size categories with markets such as Houston, Dallas and Atlanta continuing to lead.

At the same time, conditions are improving in markets that have been slower to recover. Southern California is steadily improving. Northern New Jersey is picking up momentum, and the San Francisco Bay Area stands out for its high occupancy and strong rent growth, all creating potential for future outperformance. Consistent with prior quarters, the recovery is being led by notable strength across e-commerce, advanced manufacturing and the rapidly growing segment of customers supporting the data center supply chain. This customer segment represented approximately 10% of our new leasing globally and 17% in the U.S. this quarter.

We're seeing that demand translate into meaningful activity across several U.S. markets that are geographically aligned with the data center build-out underway. Markets like Texas, Northern California, Northern Virginia, Arizona and select Midwest markets. Our current estimate is that these customers will require upwards of 150 million square feet of demand through the end of the decade for both the build-out and ongoing service of this new segment, a topic we explore in greater depth through research we plan to publish in the coming weeks. Beyond the U.S., our global platform is designed to deepen customer relationships and expand value creation opportunity, but it is also key to delivering resilient diversified operating performance. In this regard, Europe continues to show solid operating fundamentals.

Market vacancy has remained low at 5.3% and market rents increased 70 basis points during the quarter, now amounting to 275 basis points year-over-year. The Netherlands, U.K., Spain and Italy remain among the stronger markets for both rents and deployment opportunities. And across Latin America, Brazil continues to lead, while Mexico is normalizing. As we saw in the U.S., even as market rents soften, Mexico's heightened lease mark-to-market is delivering strong rent change and same-store growth. Finally, in Japan, it is noteworthy that the higher rate and inflation environment is translating to growing market rents aided by declining market vacancy.

Moving to capital markets. U.S. transaction volume is up 20% year-to-date. And for most of the year, risk appetite and pricing improved alongside operating fundamentals. Clearly, the market is now digesting the recent increase in Treasury yields, and we are observing a wider bid-ask spread. While investors contemplate re-underwriting exit cap rates, the corresponding reassessment for higher rents provides the potential to offset some pressure on values. We expect transaction volumes to moderate in the near term as buyers and sellers recalibrate. And while some short-term noise is likely, we believe the scarcity of high-quality assets with inflation plus growth characteristics will continue to attract global capital.

Turning to a brief update on SEGRO. As Dan mentioned, we are very pleased with the progress made during the quarter, having reached agreement with the Board for a recommended deal and subsequently obtaining approval from the SEGRO shareholders. The transaction is now progressing through the required regulatory clearances, and we continue to expect it to close in the first half of 2027. We also raised $2.4 billion of common equity during the quarter, completing an important part of the transaction's consideration. Further rounding out the balance sheet, we closed on approximately $1.3 billion in debt financing at an average rate of just under 4% during the quarter. More broadly, while the abrupt shift in the interest rate environment presents challenges, we are fortunate to hold approximately 95% of our debt on a fixed rate basis with approximately 8 years of average life remaining. Our debt metrics remain in excellent shape, and our liquidity at the end of the quarter was nearly $9 billion.

Turning to guidance, which I'll review in our share. First, in our operations, we are narrowing our forecast for average occupancy to a range of 95.25% to 95.50%. Our strong year-to-date performance in same-store growth is driving an increase to its range to 5.5% to 6% on a net effective basis and 7% to 7.5% on a cash basis. Strategic capital revenue, excluding promotes, is being revised to a range of $650 million to $660 million, reflecting a tempered view on asset management fees as well as the timing of some transaction-based fees. And G&A is now expected to range between $515 million to $525 million.

On capital deployment, we are increasing development starts on an owned and managed basis to a range of $6 billion to $6.75 billion. This increase is driven predominantly by our expectation for a very high fourth quarter of build-to-suit starts and all of the remaining activity will be in new logistics development. In total and for the year, we expect build-to-suits to represent between 55% and 65% of the year's starts. We're increasing our acquisitions guidance to $2.1 billion to $2.3 billion and expect contributions and dispositions to range from $3.5 billion to $4.75 billion. Putting it all together, we expect net earnings to range between $4.05 and $4.15 per share, and core FFO is expected to range between $6.25 and $6.29 per share, both with and without promotes.

In closing, our third quarter results confirm that our underlying business and market conditions remain strong. Demand is broad. Our portfolio is performing very well, and our land and power positions create significant opportunities for value creation. Underneath our global platform, strong balance sheet and proven team position us to respond to changing conditions and invest with discipline in the opportunities ahead.

With that, I will turn the call over to the operator for your questions. Operator?

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Michael Goldsmith with UBS.

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Michael Goldsmith

You've now had several straight quarters of positive rent growth. Vacancy is down to 7.1% and you're describing normalized absorption of roughly 230 million to 240 million square feet annually. At the same time, replacement cost rents are now 27% above market rents, making new supply more difficult. I think you said 1.7% of stock in the first quarter on construction. So if absorption stays around this normalized level, how quickly can vacancy tighten from here? And then when do you think that would translate into more meaningful acceleration in pricing power?

Christopher Caton

Michael, it's Chris. That's a really nice way to ask for 2027 forecast of market conditions. Let me give you a few pieces, and I'll just underline some points you're making, and then I'll let you make your own inferences. And you're right, you're right. The facts on the ground are constructive as we look into 2027, but it's just early to share a forecast. And I want to underline, it's not just in the third quarter, it's all year that net absorption has been running at 240 million square feet on an annualized basis. And as we take a sense of where demand is running today based on the proprietary data we have, so I'm looking at our pipeline and looking at our customer conversations and the progression through the pipeline, that's all very promising.

And indeed, vacancies moved down from a peak of 7.5% at (sic) [ to ] 7.1%. It's on pace to go to 7% by the end of the year. So there's really nice momentum there. And the replacement cost rents do set up for above inflation growth over time. I think the detail to add that you don't have is we're already seeing it in some markets. So places like Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, Phoenix, Indianapolis, Northern California, these are all markets that are on pace to have market rent growth of 5% to 6% this year. And that's even with vacancies in the mid- to high 7s in some of these geographies all this year. So what's really made the difference for those cities is just healthy demand rather than needing vacancy to go to 3%, 4%, or 5%. And so that's -- those are some facts I would consider if I were you as I -- to make my own determination.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Griffin with Evercore ISI.

Michael Griffin

Dan, I think you mentioned in your prepared remarks that the bar for new development is higher, but you modestly increased the development starts guidance. Just wondering how you can marry those 2 aspects? Do you think Prologis is in a better position to execute on developments given maybe a more favorable basis in your land, more efficiencies on the cost side? Just curious, any additional thoughts there as it relates to maybe the view and cost related to developments versus what seems like incremental positivity on your own starts guidance?

Dan Letter

Yes. Well, first of all, we've had a pretty strong year of starts so far on -- in spec. This was a pretty big spec quarter actually with 80% of our starts in spec. But that being said, you heard in Tim's script, we expect to end the year at 55% to 65% of the year in build-to-suits. And so we have a very large build-to-suit pipeline. It's actually probably about 20% to 25% larger than it was at this time last year. And you know these are big lumpy deals. And so we expect to have a pretty big quarter in the fourth quarter here in build-to-suits. So that's what you're seeing come through these numbers.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Vikram Malhotra with Mizuho.

Vikram Malhotra

I guess just maybe 2 parts to it. One, can you just describe what led to the top end of occupancy guide tick down and how confident you are in kind of building occupancy over the next few months into '27? And just related to that, like as the occupancy builds, where are you seeing like sustained evidence of market rent growth that might be, say, mid-single digits?

Timothy Arndt

Vikram, it's Tim. So the occupancy, I guess it is a drop technically on the midpoint. It's just really -- I see it as a tightening of the range. We had a range on both it and same-store growth. And now as we see the fourth quarter coming into focus, we can just see where it's going to land on a full year basis. And so the occupancy range on an average basis reflects that. The important output here is clearly same-store growth, which is the uptick. So the focus should be there. That's the dollars and cents of the business.

We feel very good about what's implicit in that, meaning further occupancy build through the fourth quarter. We ended very strong here at the end of the third quarter. And as Dan mentioned, the pipeline is very full in terms of leasing, in particular, as we parse through an agreement stage, just how advanced a lot of deals look, we feel great about that.

I'll pass to Chris on the market rent question.

Christopher Caton

Sure. So market rent, I hit many of the American markets that are enjoying that sort of mid-single digits rent growth. So that's Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, Phoenix, Indy, NorCal, and there are other Midwest markets as well. But it's also true internationally. Brazil certainly is seeing probably the best momentum globally. And then in Europe, I'd point to the Netherlands as having the best rent dynamics.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Tom Catherwood with U.S. Bancorp -- BTIG.

William Catherwood

Maybe I wanted to go back to Michael's initial question about rent growth. The assets you've acquired this year have been at lower going-in cap rates than you've done historically. Given the rent growth expectations that you talked about on this call and previous calls, are you now willing to buy assets where the mark-to-market upside is further out, say, 2 to 3 years? And if so, how does that impact both the pool of acquisition opportunities that are available to you and your return expectations?

Dan Letter

Sure. Thanks, Tom. I think the way you should think about this is our approach in any sort of deployment, capital allocation is around total return. And with the balance sheet our size and access to capital through both private vehicles and the PLD mothership, we have all sorts of opportunity to deploy where others just simply can't. And so with a large mark-to-market with the widening gap between market rents and replacement costs, we do have confidence that if we get the right discount to replacement cost, the right quality, take it through all the same filters using the same discipline that we've always used, we'll certainly find more opportunities there.

What that means for the overall pool of opportunities out there, who knows? The market is digesting a lot of change in the capital markets right now. But overall, I like where we sit, and we're going to stick to the strategy we've deployed for years.

Timothy Arndt

Yes. And just to build on to that, Tom, just speaking technically, the activity you see here in the quarter was driven in very large part by one such deal had a very high lease mark-to-market, and we reflect the actual cap rate, not a market cap rate in the supplemental. So you're seeing that. And as Dan just said, our ability to wait longer maybe than the average investor for those rents to come through gives us the buying advantage that we have is reflected in that discount to replacement cost this quarter as well.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Caitlin Burrows with Goldman Sachs.

Caitlin Burrows

Just a follow-up on the transaction market. So just looking at acquisition guidance having increased, but then contributions and dispositions were down. I guess, could you go through the driving factors of the revisions and why they're being revised in different directions? I know you mentioned earlier that the market may take a pause and there's some bid-ask difference spread. But yes, the impact that's having.

Timothy Arndt

Yes, Caitlin, I mean, on the first part, acquisitions, a lot of it is a function of what we've now just simply done to date, and we have a narrow range for the balance of the year. We'll see if we execute on -- it could be any number within there, maybe even higher or lower than the range. It's all subject to what the market ultimately brings. I think the disposition and contribution guidance just reflects a little bit of caution in our willingness to be careful if there is some turbulence in pricing from here as the interest rate environment has been so volatile. We also know of a couple of deals that simply are pushing in terms of timing out into the new year. And next year, when we give new guidance, we'll see how that trues up.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Vince Tibone with Green Street.

Vince Tibone

So the weighted average stabilized cap rate on the active development projects increased about 20 basis points to 5.7% quarter-over-quarter. Just want to understand, is that 20 basis point change your initial view for changing market cap rates as a result of higher rates? Or is there something else impacting that figure on a quarter-over-quarter basis?

Dan Letter

Well, Vince, we review the pricing and valuations on these -- on that development pool, as you can imagine, on a regular basis. And there's a same-store aspect to it, and then there's obviously ins and outs in that overall pool. But that is a reflection on what we see the terminal value of that real estate will be upon stabilization.

And that being said, keep in mind, as we underwrite, we've long used, I would even say, maybe a conservative approach where we build in the appropriate cost of capital. We already build in expansion in these cap rates over time and take into account risk associated with delivering this. So is that the exact number on where values are shaking out today? Hard to say. There's just so many moving parts there.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of John Kim with BMO Capital Markets.

John Kim

On the data center front, you mentioned Letter of Intent of roughly 1 gigawatt. I think that's been fairly stable over the last few months. But can you just comment on what the constraints are to getting those leases signed? Is it securing the permitting and the power? Or is it something more on the leasing economics front?

Dan Letter

I think every deal is a little bit different, right? The pace of power and entitlements, these are projects we've been working on for years. These negotiations with these hyperscalers, they're long in duration. And you've seen us already start over $2 billion worth of data centers this year. We've always said that this is going to be a very lumpy business. So there's not one single constraint that we're talking with confidence about delivering that 1 gigawatt right there. We're talking with confidence about delivering these 5.8 gigawatts over the next 5 years as well. So no one thing to point to. Negotiations just take a long time. These are multibillion-dollar decisions that these hyperscalers are making.

Timothy Arndt

And I would just underline one thing Dan just said, which is, and I guess, implicit in the way you phrased the question, but just that because of starts or despite starts that we've had that are no longer LOI, we're actually refilling that LOI stage steadily as we've had these starts.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Nicholas Yulico with Scotiabank.

Nicholas Yulico

I was hoping you could talk a little bit more about Southern California and the different performances you're seeing in submarkets there, South Bay, stuff that's tied to like advanced manufacturing, defense industries versus more traditional 3PL demand in that market of parts of L.A. and Inland Empire.

Christopher Caton

Sure. It's Chris. So bottom line, Southern California is recovering consistent with what we've been talking about throughout the year. So you know, net absorption is positive. Market occupancy is up year-on-year. It's risen to 93.5%. And in fact, I'd point to Prologis being nearly 97% occupied.

Now rents are stable with progress variable, just like you're asking sort of with differences by submarket and product quality. So let's start in Inland Empire. That continues to be really healthy, really strong, good momentum across a range of size categories, vacancies coming in at different speeds with the strength above, say, 600,000 square feet. Los Angeles is variable by submarket. Yes, after the South Bay, really Class A is enjoying a renaissance in the aerospace space and that market is moving quickly. Where we are in the cycle, what really matters is portfolio quality, location quality and active asset management.

Prologis has captured more than our fair share of the market, and this is both true nationally and Southern California with an active portfolio management approach. And so look, stepping back, we've been consistent that Southern California is a long-term attractive opportunity for us going back years as we've been discussing Southern California on the call. We've also been clear that we expected a cyclical recovery to emerge, and that absolutely is emerging, and it positions our portfolio to outperform in the next coming years.

Dan Letter

The only thing I would pile on there is if you look at just the overall supply picture, it's -- I think last quarter was one of the lowest start quarters in, I don't know how long, over a decade. And so that will -- the overall fundamentals are really shaking out as we've projected.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Nick Thillman with Baird.

Nicholas Thillman

Maybe just a quick 2-part question on just lease economics. Overall, we see an uptick quarter-over-quarter on just turnover costs. Wondering if that's more just a function of mix? And then broadly, as we just look at your U.S. portfolio, as concessions, have they topped out here just given the increase in activity you're seeing on the leasing side? I guess how would you classify that? Or are there still some markets that are a little bit more challenged and you're seeing some erosion there?

Timothy Arndt

Nick, yes, your observations are clear that the turnover cost is indeed more of a mix issue. We've got new leasing, not just in some higher rent markets that can concentrate that way, but we're also building occupancy. So in both those activities, you wind up bearing a little bit more on the turnover cost front. Embedded in the free rent figure you see, I would just highlight that it's hard for you to -- or any investor, I guess, to detect, but we present that number on a trailing 12-month basis. When you unpack it, sequentially, the free rent level actually declined as a percent of lease value quarter-over-quarter. I'm not suggesting we're necessarily on that downward trend in earnest yet, but it is going to bounce around here. We think it will decline towards closer to 3% over the longer term.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Carroll with RBC Capital Markets.

Michael Carroll

I wanted to touch on the current demand outlook. I mean, I know Prologis is still pretty positive on where trends are right now. Can you maybe explain what's driving this? I mean, are higher interest rates holding back the more traditional industrial demand, but this is just being offset by stronger e-commerce and data center supply chain drivers? Or is -- were all these buckets doing pretty well and there's really a minimal impact from the higher rates so far?

Dan Letter

The best lens we have to answer that question is really just through the lens of our customers. Obviously, we work with them daily and sharing anecdotes and pulling our data and proprietary data regularly. And what I'd say is just overall conversations continue to be very constructive. You heard the numbers from last quarter. You see the overall trend across the U.S. with net absorption numbers in the 230 million, 240 million square foot range. We're certainly seeing an outsized percentage of demand in the data center build-out. Some of the more interest rate-sensitive segments are a little bit slower. I think that says something about just our business, the quality of our real estate and the fact that we can attract this new demand driver around the data center build-out.

But what I'd say is, our customers, they invest in their supply chain when their businesses are growing. And the conversations, again, like I said, are very constructive. We're hearing about additional capacity they need. And that's from both just the modernization of the supply chain, that's their e-commerce growth, just a fair amount of those tailwinds. And I'd say the pipeline itself continues to replenish even after these big 60 million-plus square foot quarters. So overall, we're thinking we're getting more than our fair share of the leasing.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Blaine Heck with Wells Fargo.

Blaine Heck

I know you can't talk about specifics related to the SEGRO deal. But in general, does the movement in rates have much of an impact on the economics of the deal from your perspective? And related to that, do you guys have any better handle on when that transaction will close and whether initial '27 guidance will include or exclude the impact from SEGRO?

Timothy Arndt

Blaine, it's Tim. Yes. Well, you answered it yourself there. We can't really speak in very much detail to the transaction overall. Beyond saying we're super excited about where things have landed over the course of the quarter. We'll now go through the regulatory steps from here. But all of that regulated process does keep us from speaking with any specificity to things like cost and revenue synergies and accretion. So I have no update for you there.

But I can say this to the thrust of your question on capitalization and interest rates, it's not news that the vast majority of the capitalization of this transaction is known and certain. It's broadly the share exchange. Thereafter, we've done an equity raise that we've tucked away for this eventual closing. And then there will be an amount of assumed debt that has interest rates that won't change. So you can think about it that way as you wait for further guidance.

I do not anticipate that inaugural guidance will include specifics on SEGRO because we don't expect it will have closed by then. That's not our expectation. And because thereafter its closing date is uncertain, it would just be too wide of a range and too confusing. But more on that to come in January and upon the eventual close.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Dave Rodgers with Raymond James.

David Rodgers

I wanted to ask about data centers, both with respect to the 1.7 gigawatts of secured and then that 5.8 gigawatts longer term. And it's really getting to the concept of data center moratoriums. And I think that there's like 3 questions in here, so I apologize in advance. But I'm curious if you're having any direct impact from data center moratorium or legislation or anything to where your secured power or that power pipeline is? The 17% ancillary demand that you quoted, is that getting -- is that growing or shrinking as the year is going on? And is it impacting in any way your funding plans around a JV? Sorry, all in one, but all related to kind of moratoriums and any impact on your business?

Dan Letter

Look, thanks, Dave. I'll start and hand it to Chris for the second and third part of your question there. But overall, the pipeline that we quote has not been impacted by moratoriums. We have a very high bar that we set before we pull any power into this and publish it. And so we feel very strongly about our ability to deliver this, as I mentioned earlier in the call. A number of these various issues you see or various moratoriums, maybe they're not necessarily moratoriums. Maybe there's just a pause while more analysis is taking place. And so it may slow a project down by a few months or a quarter or 2. But we just point blank have not been impacted by any of the specific moratoriums. And like I said earlier, 85% of that 5.8 gigawatts will be able to start by 2030.

And Chris, why don't you hit?

Christopher Caton

Yes, Dave, the 17%, so just everyone's on the same page, that's the share of new leasing in the quarter for logistics real estate that were data center supplier related. That is strengthening. To answer your question directly, these are the hyperscalers, manufacturers, distributors. These are large, well-capitalized companies signing long-term logistics real estate leases. And they're establishing a whole ecosystem of regional distribution. They're facilitating just-in-time equipment delivery, light assembly and modular construction to speed these facilities to delivery.

Timothy Arndt

And I'll pick up the last part just on any implications to funding. And I guess I would start just by saying, empirically, you know that we do not require any JV or other funding for this business. We've been happily executing on it on our own, have plenty of balance sheet capacity to continue doing so. We're happy with what we shared last quarter where we've set up some structures that we can choose to utilize, especially as some projects may come along that could be very significant in size where it may be appropriate and also more accretive, frankly, on our equity dollars. But heretofore, we've been pretty happy to do this on our own.

Operator

Our last question comes from the line of Todd Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Todd Thomas

There's been some commentary about the higher interest rate environment leading to an increase in return requirements. And I was just wondering if you could elaborate on that and speak to both acquisition and development returns, what specifically has changed over the last several months? And then specifically in data centers, just given some of the volatility that we're seeing there in the data center capital markets, can you just speak to whether anything has changed in how you're underwriting tenant credit or required returns for developments with hyperscalers or other potential data center customers before putting capital at risk?

Timothy Arndt

Todd, it's Tim. I'll just start on return requirements, how we're handling cost of capital. We don't know where the cost of capital is precisely. We saw the 10-year drop 20 basis points today. So it's certainly bouncing around quite a bit. But in these periods of volatility, we do put some reserve in the way we look for underwriting expectations through our investment committee process.

These are periods of transition where we exercise that caution and await some kind of new equilibrium and stable environment. And everything can reset there. And the beauty about our business is we're spread investors, and we know we can create value in both our operations and our development businesses really in any yield environment. But indeed, as things have been so volatile in the last, what, 6 weeks, in particular, we are a little more cautious in that outlook.

Dan Letter

Yes. And then when you think about the data center underwriting, data center capital markets, these markets are still forming. And certainly, rates matter in a big way for sure. But these values, they're not driven by one variable. And given where that overall market is, we build buffers into these risk-adjusted returns, whether it be the ultimate terminal value, the execution risk, construction risk, supply chain risk. So we have buffers there. We're going to continue to preserve those margins, those margins that we've been quoting going all the way back to 2023. And these deals evolve over time, and we'll adjust the returns as needed, but we feel good about the numbers that we've been quoting.

Operator

Thank you. And we have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. And therefore, I'd like to turn the call back over to management for closing remarks.

Dan Letter

Well, thank you for joining us today, and thanks again to our Prologis colleagues around the world for another excellent quarter. We look forward to speaking with you all again next quarter. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And this does conclude today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.